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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some wel
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov
On the front page of the Times this morning there is a report on part of its latest YouGov poll relating to its TMay trackers asking whether and when she should go. Last week’s poll came just as the Brexit deal was being published and had the most negative numbers yet for the PM. In just a week as the chart above shows there’s been a major turnaround.
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Edit: off to La France today getting into the mood.
Not from possession of any moral fibre or damascene analysis but just because shorn of their leader, who is now a laughing stock, they will be more biddable.
For my money it's more likely to be a mixture of cowardice, incompetence and illiteracy. After all, we were told they were at, or nearly at the threshold before the mood change. Now we find that far from having 48 in, we don't even have the 23 who have publicly claimed to have written one. That's genuinely embarrassing for the ERG.
* Some people might see governments controlling where go as an improvement.
Women in low-paid jobs now Tories’ top priority
Middle-class women’s issues such as the gender pay gap and corporate glass ceiling are to be downgraded by the government in favour of championing those in low-paid, low-status roles.
Women in poorly paid jobs, with limited qualifications or who care for elderly relatives or disabled children will become the priority in Whitehall in a shift of policy to be announced today.
Instead of focusing on professional women returning to work, attention will switch to those who work as carers, cleaners and in customer service roles. Ethnic minority groups such as Bangladeshi women will be targeted because their employment rate is three times lower than that of white women.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/women-in-low-paid-jobs-now-tories-top-priority-0q8k8fg6h
Subscribe (or buy a dead tree) for the rest.
It may even be that TM gets the deal through and in the ensuing euphoria goes back to the country and gets her majority- though I'm still thinking that BoJo and others most closely aligned with the fiasco will face significant contrary winds.
Post-Brexit UK is going to need to face up to major reform, yet the Tories, as is their want, cannot deliver that. However the fact is that is that Labour are just not electable under Corbyn and 2017 was the high watermark. Unless the Labour Party gets its act together we are condemned to Tory mediocrity (at best) for the foreseeable future when what we now need is root and branch changes to our politics and economy.
I think we could well see another attempt at political realignment in the aftermath of another Conservative win, but would rather the process began asap to head off yet more years of bitter Tory misrule- they have already cost us too much (remember the AAA? *sigh*).
I think the real problem with the initial response was that people didn't bother to read it and just reported their expectations of it - which didn't ultimately match the reality.
This is not a done deal yet, nothing like it. We have a situation where multiple groupings can vote no but how do we get to yes?
* Many sections are clearly very technical and won't affect anything politically.
Erg can’t count to 48
May supporters can’t count to 322
It will end up passing fairly easily.
I say again, Corbyn should whip abstention.
Since the transitional arrangement preserves most of the benefits of membership that matter to ordinary people, yet resolves none of Brexit's difficulties and contradictions, the transitional period is very likely to be extended. If the Brexiters try and reopen the whole debate they will get short shrift from voters.
This leaves open the option of rejoining to a future government - which would probably be easier than pressing ahead with cutting all the institutional ties.
So on reflection it is probably remainers who (if the People's Vote falls) should be having a good hard think about whether they really want to be opposing the deal. You can feel the tide starting to turn in May's favour already.
Eye of the storm, methinks.
Edited extra bit: in 'thank **** for that' news, dodgy Russian loses election to a South Korean to be president of Interpol: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46286959
It was covered on the ITV News last night, which was interesting but did feature the glaring omission of what the electorate was and how the voting worked, which seemed a bit odd.
But he won't get a general election, unless the DUP go into revenge mode. Maybe he could offer them two billion....
I'm convinced that this is not because any negotiator on either side has the slightest interest in whether Britain chooses to send a few thousand pre-weaned calves on 100-hour journeys, and if they thought about it they'd probably be against, but they've routinely put in a sentence ("No quantitative restrictions" on inter-Irish trade) which accidentally makes an effective ban or limit impossible (because it creates an Irish loophole for any ban).
I've no doubt that there are many other unintended issues which will pop up. I don't blame anyone for them, but if it's adopted it would be sensible to agree a review in a year to clarify any issues that have emerged.
The first, as indeed even NPXMP has noted, I can't see more than half a dozen Lab MPs voting for the deal. Given the then forces lined up against it I can't logically see a way through for it.
At the same time, I can't believe that the HoC will vote it down.
But goodness knows how each side will look come the day.
It's a view...
Given how the economy is progressing I think the last thing we need is politicians thinking that they know better and tearing things apart with the skill and precision that they have so recently demonstrated.
We do need to put Brexit to bed, to encourage more investment and less consumption, to make education more relevant to the jobs the market is likely to create, to encourage training, to improve the efficiency of the housing market in getting workers to where they are needed, to improve connectivity both physical and online, to rebalance public investment away from London and the SE to the north, to create a more level playing field between bricks and clicks etc etc. I am not suggesting that there is not plenty to be done but it is at the margins/supply side of our economy and politicians really need to stop causing more problems than they solve.
In particular we do not need politicians seeking to nationalise parts of industry, seeking to increase the tax burden on the mobile higher paid even further than has been done already, reducing the flexibility of our labour market that has done so much to eliminate unemployment, thinking that they know where investment in industry is likely to be most effective, indulging protectionist tendencies or anything else that Corbyn/McDonnell have dreamed up. It really wouldn't help.
You're going to have to help me with the AAA, I'm afraid.
QED
PS it looks nicer with the rogue apostrophe, style over substance every time
PPS too early to be worrying about grammar pedantry anyway
For remainers, they cling to the hope that losing the deal leads to a second vote and remaining. So she needs to allow a proper debate and vote on the People's Vote amendment, and see it fall.
For the hard leavers, they cling to the hope that if they can defeat the deal and keep the political chaos going for a few more weeks, we will arrive at no deal. There are a few dramatic political moves May could make to close off the no deal option - but at the moment she can let the public mood do the pushing for her. Those MPs who went back to their constituencies last weekend got the message loud and clear.
It's like AV, and she just needs to get those second preferences counted.
Marking calls. Have a good morning.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/britain-boardroooms-brexit-westminster-europe
The "absentee landlordism" of investment funds has, in my view quite a bit to do with why large UK business is either poorly run or foreign owned.
AAA? Remember in 2010 how it was going to be so critical to keep our AAA credit rating on a par with Germany. It is now AA with a negative outlook and only a notch above Estonia.
This is a problem irrespective of Brexit. Germany is still AAA.
If we get a Sterling bounce from a Brexit deal, as I would expect, we will overtake France and probably India again. Of course the question of whether it is a good thing that our GDP is higher than a country with 20x the population is another question entirely.
If May's Deal does not get through the Commons but she persists trying with it nonetheless as is likely the DUP could well pull the plug on the Government and the Government lose a VONC. In which case she cannot afford to lose any Tory voteshare to UKIP without gains from Remainer Labour and LD voters.
Ironically though if Corbyn gets enough MPs to become PM after that general election we would likely get an even softer Brexit with permanent Customs Union membership and quite possibly permanent Single Market membership too as the SNP will insist on that as the price of their support
Second, of course in the 1960s we still had much of the Empire, much of Africa was still under British rule as was Hong Kong and parts of the Middle East and given India has well over 10 times pur population it was always going to overtake us. Indeed India and China were the largest economies until the 17th century. What matters more is GDP per capita
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1065156468121509888?s=21
https://www.bing.com/search?FORM=SLBRDF&pc=SL16&q=population of india
The ERG type extremists are calculating the odds of the failure of this deal leading to a Second Referendum.
The People's Vote extremists are calculating the odds of the failure of this deal leading to a No Deal.
Both hope they can manipulate the outcome of this deal failing to their advantage but either side is at all certain. In both cases this deal is perhaps starting to be viewed as being the second best (and safest) option rather than losing everything.
May be worth throwing down 10p or so each way on drivers from Sauber, Toro Rosso, Williams, McLaren etc to 'win'. Odds range from Leclerc's 101 to Sirotkin's 501 (131 and 651 respectively with boost).
BBC forecast reckons it'll be dry (albeit with thundery showers a few days later) but the forecasting this year has been unusually errant. Not sure why.
Part of the problem is that forecasters now rely too much on the raw model output. For example, it's been a feature of the models for ever that they do not persist showers inland as far as observed in this sort of setup. The forecaster should have made this uncertainty clear. Similarly with relatively small positional errors for fronts having larger impacts on people's experience of the weather. I suppose they only have a short period to provide a forecast for the whole country though.
Even with those caveats the skill of the weather forecast in the large scale picture is phenomenal. Of course, it's the small-scale detail that you experience.