Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
It’s amazing how the Stripey Pencil and his sinister ERG brethren have united the country against hard brexit.
Does anyone have a clue how much support hard brexit has in the country?
Good question. I’d hazard a guess at around 25% (at best).
Seems to me that a lot of ferrets are going to be doing U-turns in the next couple of weeks.... Mike is right, it's looking as though the PM has a chance of bringing this off.
Thursday - That May is such a useless traitor, she must go Friday - Oh yeah, baby, it's on, take her down Saturday - Hang on a sec, if that happens then what? Sunday - I mean, she's crap and all, but seriously, how does this help with anything? Monday - Oh gods, oh gods, does anyone know what is going on? Tuesday - Well ok, she's a useless traitor who can stay for now.
Alternatively, LDs at least might be 'rallying' because her in place means a better chance of remain.
Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.
Or maybe they've had a good chance to eyeball some of them? The ERG have always been a ludicrous hotchpotch of the eccentric, the ambitious and the borderline deranged. Except, for the past week they've been all over the airwaves displaying those qualities. Having said that. I support her approach, even though I'd prefer to Remain and am not a Tory.
Thursday - That May is such a useless traitor, she must go Friday - Oh yeah, baby, it's on, take her down Saturday - Hang on a sec, if that happens then what? Sunday - I mean, she's crap and all, but seriously, how does this help with anything? Monday - Oh gods, oh gods, does anyone know what is going on? Tuesday - Well ok, she's a useless traitor who can stay for now.
Alternatively, LDs at least might be 'rallying' because her in place means a better chance of remain.
I'm waiting to see voting intention (which oddly The Times don't seem to talking about?) before drawing too many conclusion about this poll.
Doesn't that reflect the quality of her rivals? I want her to stay, but am vanishingly unlikely to vote Tory. The thought of Jakey Boy, Raab, Boris or anyone else is too nightmarish to contemplate.
Her rivals are the same as they were a week ago. Such a huge change in a week must mean that voters basically support her approach rather than supporting those who have spent the week trying to trash it.
Or maybe they've had a good chance to eyeball some of them? The ERG have always been a ludicrous hotchpotch of the eccentric, the ambitious and the borderline deranged. Except, for the past week they've been all over the airwaves displaying those qualities. Having said that. I support her approach, even though I'd prefer to Remain and am not a Tory.
One wonders how well the deal will get through the EU leaders. The supposed immutability of its substance (not including very minor tweaks) is a major factor if MPs are to reverse ferret on this (even as it could also backfire since no one seems to believe the EU on this) on the basis they believe, after all, that this really is it. The EU leaders have to consider their own electorates even though it is not as pressing an issue for them but is this going to be a situation where everyone needs to be able to claim to have gained something more from the summit, or will everyone privately agree to suck it up and mope a bit?
Frankly, the EU leaders moping a bit might help sell it to MPs more, although it didn't work on the public (me included) when they moaned about Cameron's negotiation.
I've had the thought that the 'ERG gang' can be divided into two groups:
1) Those who really believe in the 'Go Global' libertarian pirate island (hat tip EiT)
2) The useful idiots who will froth about 'vassal status' and pontificate about trade treaties (without knowing what they're talking about) thinking they're the new Winston Churchill
I'd add
3) Those who think their leadership ambitions/further career in the party will be enhanced by peddling this rhetoric.
While definitely A Thing, I’m not sure 3) is a discrete group from 1) and certainly 2).
Reality check: Even with Conservatives fully supportive of the whips, TMay has already lost her ability to get routine legislation through the Commons, as evidenced tonight by being forced to accept Labour amendments to the Finance Bill. Her deal doesn't have a chance in hell.
Rather depends on the DUP, doesn't it? What the DUP taketh away, the DUP can restore, if they want to.
The ERG have a magic touch.... Very sporting of them, and to so help a remainer too.. Selfless of them and clearly putting the national interest first..
If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
That's three boxes ticked then!
Now just tell Labour that! The deal probably won't save the government for long, and even if it does limp on they're not likely to be in a good place for quite some time.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
Thursday - That May is such a useless traitor, she must go Friday - Oh yeah, baby, it's on, take her down Saturday - Hang on a sec, if that happens then what? Sunday - I mean, she's crap and all, but seriously, how does this help with anything? Monday - Oh gods, oh gods, does anyone know what is going on? Tuesday - Well ok, she's a useless traitor who can stay for now.
Alternatively, LDs at least might be 'rallying' because her in place means a better chance of remain.
I'm waiting to see voting intention (which oddly The Times don't seem to talking about?) before drawing too many conclusion about this poll.
Eh, I couldn't understand how the polls could possibly be accurate with what they were saying before, so I'm far less concerned with what they are saying now in any case!
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
I don't know. I think in Jezza's first term they'll probably play it relatively safe (abolition of HoL, changing the voting system to one that cements the left in power for generations, that sort of thing)
It will be the second term when things get really interesting...
Further to this. My aged father, who wants Corbyn replaced, as he is " too soft", expressed a surprising sympathy for May. Her grit and stickability, and that she at least understands the details. Still thinks it is a Capitalist plot against the working class, mind. But credit Theresa. She seems to have cornered the least worst Tory market!
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
(abolition of HoL)
We just entered the 20th year since the interim measure of retaining 92 Hereditary Peers came in I believe. Amazing how fast progress can happen.
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
I don't know. I think in Jezza's first term they'll probably play it relatively safe (abolition of HoL, changing the voting system to one that cements the left in power for generations, that sort of thing)
It will be the second term when things get really interesting...
Question on Cabinet Members quitting - is there an unofficial convention I wonder that next time they appear in the Chamber they should sit as far at the back as they can reasonably manage, in order to demonstrate the gulf between them and the front bench?
Further to this. My aged father, who wants Corbyn replaced, as he is " too soft", expressed a surprising sympathy for May. Her grit and stickability, and that she at least understands the details. Still thinks it is a Capitalist plot against the working class, mind. But credit Theresa. She seems to have cornered the least worst Tory market!
Most PMs get a sympathy vote after about two years in office, with the possible exception of Mrs Thatcher.
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
I don't know. I think in Jezza's first term they'll probably play it relatively safe (abolition of HoL, changing the voting system to one that cements the left in power for generations, that sort of thing)
It will be the second term when things get really interesting...
Votes at 16 methinks
Labour coming out for PR would be a game changer imho.
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
And the election after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the one after that... And the...
Oh, I don't know about that. A few months of Corbyn & McDonnell will have a purgative effect on the body politic. Disagreeable while it happens and for a time afterwards, of course.
I don't know. I think in Jezza's first term they'll probably play it relatively safe (abolition of HoL, changing the voting system to one that cements the left in power for generations, that sort of thing)
It will be the second term when things get really interesting...
Votes at 16 methinks
Well it was in the last manifesto after all. Not a fan myself, but I think it's going to happen sooner or later.
Then again, leaving the EU was in the manifesto too, and I'm less certain Labour will not switch to remain at some point anyway. Starmer wants it so bad.
It would be a nailed on certainty if either May or Corbyn supported it. The country has had enough and knows leaving is bonkers as do the vast majority of MPs but without the support of either party leader it's difficult to see how it can happen.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
One really popular thing Jezza could do on day one as PM is to strip Tony Blair of the very costly police protection he receives at tax payers expense (while undermining the country at every turn) and make him pay for his own bloody protection.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
You mean VASSALAGE.
But you're right about the text. I feel everyone should attempt to read it, or at least the sections that relate to bits that they state concern them, but legalese with endless references to other law is not particularly digestible.
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
I read somewhere that Theresa's still signing us up to that nonsense...
That one I am sure is not true, because they wouldn't let us do that, aren't they still not even letting us use some damn satellites? Close cooperation? Sure. But if we are not in the EU they will damn sure not want us to be in their army, it would no longer be an EU army, just a European army.
I read somewhere that Theresa's still signing us up to that nonsense...
That one I am sure is not true, because they wouldn't let us do that, aren't they still not even letting us use some damn satellites? Close cooperation? Sure. But if we are not in the EU they will damn sure not want us to be in their army, it would no longer be an EU army, just a European army.
Or a British Army with some EU logistical support.
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
It potentially buys her time to try out other things (and wait for Labour to crack) as the Tories might be ever more reluctant to attempt to remove her if they think the public view is shifting in her favour?
Though I think more likely is that when her deal fails the numbers will shift big again, and more letters will go in on the basis they gave her deal a shot, plus Labour don't look like cracking.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
You mean VASSALAGE.
But you're right about the text. I feel everyone should attempt to read it, or at least the sections that relate to bits that they state concern them, but legalese with endless references to other law is not particularly digestible.
My other half studied EU law at uni, she's said it as dry as it gets !
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
It potentially buys her time to try out other things (and wait for Labour to crack) as the Tories might be ever more reluctant to attempt to remove her if they think the public view is shifting in her favour?
Though I think more likely is that when her deal fails the numbers will shift big again, and more letters will go in on the basis they gave her deal a shot, plus Labour don't look like cracking.
Her deep and underlying problem is negotiating a deal that so many, on all sides, hate. It's so bad that even if she magically gets it approved (and I currently don't see who blinks to make that possible) many people will sign up to pledging "We will walk away from May's Treaty".
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
Of course you are right. My, and others, anecdata from Labour voters, and OGHs are, in a real sense, worthless. Being the least worst Tory has limited shelf life if she can't carry her Party. She is the John Major de nos jours. Playing a poor hand well. And more admired by her critics than her natural supporters.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
You mean VASSALAGE.
But you're right about the text. I feel everyone should attempt to read it, or at least the sections that relate to bits that they state concern them, but legalese with endless references to other law is not particularly digestible.
References to other law ............ which is outside UK control.
"Town where the police have give up: Hartlepool has only ten officers for a population of 90,000 people - forcing residents to patrol the streets and try to solve crimes on Facebook"
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
You mean VASSALAGE.
But you're right about the text. I feel everyone should attempt to read it, or at least the sections that relate to bits that they state concern them, but legalese with endless references to other law is not particularly digestible.
References to other law ............ which is outside UK control.
So you don't want any kind of transition period at all? That's fine, but a lot of concerns seem to be with specific aspects of the withdrawal agreement, not the entire principle that during transition we would be subject to EU rules.
I read somewhere that Theresa's still signing us up to that nonsense...
16 Air Assault are exercising in France this week as they are part of the Airborne Combined Expeditionary Force. The UK is staying in that.
Also the penny has finally dropped that the RN can't scratch together a Carrier Strike Group for HMS QE's first operational cruise to the Pacific. So that deployment is going to be a European collaboration with the French and Dutch.
European military integration is happening with the UK no matter what happens with Brexit.
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
It potentially buys her time to try out other things (and wait for Labour to crack) as the Tories might be ever more reluctant to attempt to remove her if they think the public view is shifting in her favour?
Though I think more likely is that when her deal fails the numbers will shift big again, and more letters will go in on the basis they gave her deal a shot, plus Labour don't look like cracking.
Her deep and underlying problem is negotiating a deal that so many, on all sides, hate. It's so bad that even if she magically gets it approved (and I currently don't see who blinks to make that possible) many people will sign up to pledging "We will walk away from May's Treaty".
Well yes, maybe. The big problem is that no dealers, remainers and newdealers all hate it, and she will not find it easy to peel away objectors from those three groups, since she cannot appeal to all of them at the same time, by making them worry their worst case scenario will happen.
"Town where the police have give up: Hartlepool has only ten officers for a population of 90,000 people - forcing residents to patrol the streets and try to solve crimes on Facebook"
Biggest rise in support from Lib-Dems, the biggest party of Remain in the country.
Says it all....
To be fair Adonis, Cable, Starmer and their ilk have banged on for months about Theresa May and her ultra hard Brexit pandering to ‘brextremists’. In reality she has put forward the softest of brexits and the ERG are doing her a large favour both imploding with rage about it, and trying unsuccessfully to block her. Even the attitude of the DUP will be helping her amongst centrist voters.
It still doesn’t mean she will get it through Parliament.
"Town where the police have give up: Hartlepool has only ten officers for a population of 90,000 people - forcing residents to patrol the streets and try to solve crimes on Facebook"
122,000 police officers; pop of 66 million. Hartlepool should have ~ 166 officers..
Where are the police there ?
The Met Police has 32,000 officers covering Greater London outside the square mile - so that leaves 90,000 for the remaining 58 million people. The City of London police has just under 700 officers for about 9,000 residents mostly living in the Barbican - or one officer for every 13 residents.
Cleveland, by contrast, which includes Hartlepool has around 1200 officers for around 554,000 residents - or one officer for every 460 residents. So the City of London has around 35 times as many officers per capita as Teesside. Of course the city has commuters but they mostly leave by 6pm and aren't there at weekends.
So if you want adequate policing and less crime simples - don't live in Hartlepool and buy a flat in the Barbican instead!
If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
For once Mike outlines a future I can ge on board with.
If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
In 1997 people said the Blair landslide was the end of the Tories. 21 years later they've already been back in government for 8 years.
If the deal is voted down in the Commons I think a referendum is more likely than not, but the failure of Mogg's coup means that the pressure is now building on Tory backbenchers to support the deal.
The deal will eventually get passed and on March 29th we have BINO. TMay will have honoured the referendum while seeking to minimise damage to the economy. Heroic
Yes -- increasingly I think May's BINO deal is the dream scenario for me, since it is probably the best solution for the country (avoids the economic disaster of No Deal, and the democratic disaster of overturning the referendum altogether), but also I feel pretty sure will knacker the Tories' prospects at the next election.
In 1997 people said the Blair landslide was the end of the Tories. 21 years later they've already been back in government for 8 years.
Hang on, I thought the Tories had been in power since 1979...
Ken Clarke said on Newsnight he will support the deal.
I guess that truly dooms it.
Edit to add: that shows why it might actually pass the House of Commons. Remainers are more frightened of No Deal than this Deal. My prediction: 40 to 50 Labour MPs vote in favour, as do a couple of LibDems and there are 100 or so abstentions, and the bill passes with relative ease - say 320 to 200.
Ken Clarke said on Newsnight he will support the deal.
That is interesting. How many Europhile Tory MPs have said they’ll definitely vote against the deal? Soubry, Johnson, Wollaston and Allen will vote for the second referendum amendment, but once that’s defeated how many apart from Johnson will still vote against the deal?
If the deal fails to get through the House by 200 - 400 with some abstentions - how do these improved figures help May? May could usurp Mother Theresa's mantle, but unless and until Labour starts to crack in the face of this "she's doing the best she can" bounce, we still don't have a deal with the EU......
It potentially buys her time to try out other things (and wait for Labour to crack) as the Tories might be ever more reluctant to attempt to remove her if they think the public view is shifting in her favour?
Though I think more likely is that when her deal fails the numbers will shift big again, and more letters will go in on the basis they gave her deal a shot, plus Labour don't look like cracking.
Her deep and underlying problem is negotiating a deal that so many, on all sides, hate. It's so bad that even if she magically gets it approved (and I currently don't see who blinks to make that possible) many people will sign up to pledging "We will walk away from May's Treaty".
I think you will find that people have had more than enough of the Brexiter obsessives now, and won't want to be hearing from them again for quite some time.
1. My suggestion last week to lay JRM for next Tory leader at 12-13 is already in the money. Even at the current 25-26 it's free money, although you will have to wait until the end of Theresa's second honeymoon to get it. A tax free return of 4% in say two years?
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
1. My suggestion last week to lay JRM for next Tory leader at 12-13 is already in the money. Even at the current 25-26 it's free money, although you will have to wait until the end of Theresa's second honeymoon to get it. A tax free return of 4% in say two years?
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
At this moment when No Deal Brexit seems dead in the water, is it not time to bring back @archer101au?
We suddenly seem to have lost all of our Hard Brexiters.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
I wouldn't go that far, but surely in terms of £/$ and £/€ a lot is priced in already?
While No Deal would probably push Sterling lower in the short term, either May's BINO Blind Brexit or Remain would cause a significant rise in Sterling. I suspect a Sterling rally is more likely than a further drop.
I am not betting on such movements, but my equities are distributed in a position that hedges against these movements in either direction, as far as possible. It is not Brexit affecting the world markets so much as other trade uncertainty, the drop in Chinese markets in particular.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
I guess they are to him. This is what Vitalik Buterin calls Subjectivocracy.
When someone finds a traversal vulnerability to escape the simulation we're in we'll be able to just fork the timeline in two and make a Brexit Britain and a non-Brexit Britain, that way everyone can have the politics they wanted, and also everyone will be able to win their bets.
"Town where the police have give up: Hartlepool has only ten officers for a population of 90,000 people - forcing residents to patrol the streets and try to solve crimes on Facebook"
122,000 police officers; pop of 66 million. Hartlepool should have ~ 166 officers..
Where are the police there ?
The Met Police has 32,000 officers covering Greater London outside the square mile - so that leaves 90,000 for the remaining 58 million people. The City of London police has just under 700 officers for about 9,000 residents mostly living in the Barbican - or one officer for every 13 residents.
Cleveland, by contrast, which includes Hartlepool has around 1200 officers for around 554,000 residents - or one officer for every 460 residents. So the City of London has around 35 times as many officers per capita as Teesside. Of course the city has commuters but they mostly leave by 6pm and aren't there at weekends.
So if you want adequate policing and less crime simples - don't live in Hartlepool and buy a flat in the Barbican instead!
For the price of a flat in the barbican I suspect I could buy a lot of hartlepool
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
I guess they are to him. This is what Vitalik Buterin calls Subjectivocracy.
When someone finds a traversal vulnerability to escape the simulation we're in we'll be able to just fork the timeline in two and make a Brexit Britain and a non-Brexit Britain, that way everyone can have the politics they wanted, and also everyone will be able to win their bets.
Cue panic at Betfair - who seem to be in a spot of bother this morning:
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
I guess they are to him. This is what Vitalik Buterin calls Subjectivocracy.
When someone finds a traversal vulnerability to escape the simulation we're in we'll be able to just fork the timeline in two and make a Brexit Britain and a non-Brexit Britain, that way everyone can have the politics they wanted, and also everyone will be able to win their bets.
Cue panic at Betfair - who seem to be in a spot of bother this morning:
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
At this moment when No Deal Brexit seems dead in the water, is it not time to bring back @archer101au?
We suddenly seem to have lost all of our Hard Brexiters.
I wouldn't say No Deal is dead, it remains the default position in 4 months time. All that is required is for nothing else to happen. In betting terms, betting on nothing happening usually works better than something happening.
While it is quite amusing to see the level of incompetence of the ERG exposed, and Adonis's referendum looks unlikely in the time left, May's deal is not loved. In the likelihood that it passes on the backs of opposition votes, it will be subject to pressure to revise in either direction almost immediately. We are in the Brexit neverendum phase.
In reality, the final Deal will look virtually identical to the WA deal for the simple reason that all the factors that led us here continue to apply. In practice, our agricultural, fisheries, and migration policies are likely to be substantially unchanged, as similarly the same drivers will apply, and as our matelot flyboy points out, that includes integration of armed forces. We cannot escape from geography and culture, we are a European state with much the same interests as our continental neighbours in a globalising world.
Brexit will generate a lot of heat, but actually will go with a whimper. This will not be a Singapore in the Atlantic, but rather a rather drizzly down at heel Brexit. Adonis will get his #peoplesvote in the end, but more likely from the position of CU and SM vassal state rather than before Brexit day.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
At this moment when No Deal Brexit seems dead in the water, is it not time to bring back @archer101au?
We suddenly seem to have lost all of our Hard Brexiters.
MM is the only one still here swinging a cutlass but even he is starting to tone down the fatwa.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
I guess they are to him. This is what Vitalik Buterin calls Subjectivocracy.
When someone finds a traversal vulnerability to escape the simulation we're in we'll be able to just fork the timeline in two and make a Brexit Britain and a non-Brexit Britain, that way everyone can have the politics they wanted, and also everyone will be able to win their bets.
Cue panic at Betfair - who seem to be in a spot of bother this morning:
Ken Clarke said on Newsnight he will support the deal.
I guess that truly dooms it.
Edit to add: that shows why it might actually pass the House of Commons. Remainers are more frightened of No Deal than this Deal. My prediction: 40 to 50 Labour MPs vote in favour, as do a couple of LibDems and there are 100 or so abstentions, and the bill passes with relative ease - say 320 to 200.
I think she’s about 30 votes short at the moment. She’d get 270 votes for and about 300 votes against.
Very roughly: c.8 Tory Remainer rebels, 40 ERG, no DUP and a dozen plus abstentions. Against that she’ll have 10-15 Labour MPs with her, like Flint. But not the Hooeys or Skinners.
Against that she’ll have c.220 Labour + c.35 SNP + 12 LDs + 9 DUP + 20 ERG (not all) + the flotsam and jetsam. And a lot of abstentions on top.
But, it could end up being much more dynamic than that.
Or that voters will say anything to a pollster* for shits and giggles, depending on the first meme they read on Facebook this morning, the mood they were in after their appraisal at work or the winner of the 2.45 at Haydock.
* also applies to referendum votes
True, but that is a strong reason for doubting the significance of polls showing unpopularity of a deal which no one had read and even fewer had understood.
I've had a go at "reading" the 585 pages, but it is vastly more than that. What I can understand and make out looks perfectly reasonable - the transition into No FoM looks sensible for instance - but each page is lashed out with dozens of references to existing EU law. So the full document (If all the relevant sections were to be expanded) would weigh in at several thousand pages. It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
Agreed. I’m not too bothered about a transition, be it 20 months or potentially 44 months. We need it.
The future political declaration is where it’s at for me, and I think most of it is a reasonable compromise. I’d expect other stuff to be negotiated or change over the long-term, like observation and/or associate voting rights on common EU playing field stuff (in exchange for a fee) once they feel they’ve made their point on Brexit costs, “cherrypicking” and fear of other states pursuing the same path.
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
This brings up something you have to watch for when looking at the betting odds related to no-deal, re-referendum etc: If you're betting in £s, the value of the payout of a lot of these bets will depend on which outcome occurs. If you think there's a 51% chance of No Deal, and somebody is offering you evens on it, you shouldn't take that bet, because the £s you win if you're right will be worth less than the £s you lose if you're wrong.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
I'll have you know that @archer101au thinks the Pound is worth a lot more if there's no No Deal.
At this moment when No Deal Brexit seems dead in the water, is it not time to bring back @archer101au?
We suddenly seem to have lost all of our Hard Brexiters.
MM is the only one still here swinging a cutlass but even he is starting to tone down the fatwa.
I've always been for finding a deal, because failure to do so is a damning indictment on all parties abilities to create a workable divorce arrangement.
I'm just rather more accepting than most here that No Deal default is still very much alive and kicking with May's "deal"....
Comments
Given how things have turned out maybe that would have been for the best....
Agreed.
Thursday - That May is such a useless traitor, she must go
Friday - Oh yeah, baby, it's on, take her down
Saturday - Hang on a sec, if that happens then what?
Sunday - I mean, she's crap and all, but seriously, how does this help with anything?
Monday - Oh gods, oh gods, does anyone know what is going on?
Tuesday - Well ok, she's a useless traitor who can stay for now.
Alternatively, LDs at least might be 'rallying' because her in place means a better chance of remain.
Except, for the past week they've been all over the airwaves displaying those qualities.
Having said that. I support her approach, even though I'd prefer to Remain and am not a Tory.
The word borderline is superfluous.
Frankly, the EU leaders moping a bit might help sell it to MPs more, although it didn't work on the public (me included) when they moaned about Cameron's negotiation.
While definitely A Thing, I’m not sure 3) is a discrete group from 1) and certainly 2).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/20/denigration-traditional-policing-has-damaged-publics-respect/
It will be the second term when things get really interesting...
Still thinks it is a Capitalist plot against the working class, mind.
But credit Theresa. She seems to have cornered the least worst Tory market!
Interesting...
Then again, leaving the EU was in the manifesto too, and I'm less certain Labour will not switch to remain at some point anyway. Starmer wants it so bad.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1064917364159012864
It's an amazing piece of work by the civil servants who've worked very hard on it. Big picture, it's quite simply a necessary set of transition arrangements that in the end will probably see us with an arrangement very much like we have at the moment, but outside of new stuff like the EU army; the Euro; hopefully control over our fisheries and agricultural policies - that sort of stuff.
But you're right about the text. I feel everyone should attempt to read it, or at least the sections that relate to bits that they state concern them, but legalese with endless references to other law is not particularly digestible.
Though I think more likely is that when her deal fails the numbers will shift big again, and more letters will go in on the basis they gave her deal a shot, plus Labour don't look like cracking.
My, and others, anecdata from Labour voters, and OGHs are, in a real sense, worthless. Being the least worst Tory has limited shelf life if she can't carry her Party. She is the John Major de nos jours. Playing a poor hand well.
And more admired by her critics than her natural supporters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6411663/Town-police-GIVEN-Hartlepool-ten-officers-population-90-000-people.html
Also the penny has finally dropped that the RN can't scratch together a Carrier Strike Group for HMS QE's first operational cruise to the Pacific. So that deployment is going to be a European collaboration with the French and Dutch.
European military integration is happening with the UK no matter what happens with Brexit.
Good night all.
Where are the police there ?
It still doesn’t mean she will get it through Parliament.
Cleveland, by contrast, which includes Hartlepool has around 1200 officers for around 554,000 residents - or one officer for every 460 residents. So the City of London has around 35 times as many officers per capita as Teesside. Of course the city has commuters but they mostly leave by 6pm and aren't there at weekends.
So if you want adequate policing and less crime simples - don't live in Hartlepool and buy a flat in the Barbican instead!
Ken Clarke said on Newsnight he will support the deal.
Edit to add: that shows why it might actually pass the House of Commons. Remainers are more frightened of No Deal than this Deal. My prediction: 40 to 50 Labour MPs vote in favour, as do a couple of LibDems and there are 100 or so abstentions, and the bill passes with relative ease - say 320 to 200.
1. My suggestion last week to lay JRM for next Tory leader at 12-13 is already in the money. Even at the current 25-26 it's free money, although you will have to wait until the end of Theresa's second honeymoon to get it. A tax free return of 4% in say two years?
2. Buy £/$: when the deal is eventually landed, the upside bounce could be of a scale of referendum night. And at below $1.28 the medium term downside risk is surely limited, especially as next most likely path without the deal leads to remaining.
To the extent that these events are traded on US or crypto markets, this should show up as different odds to the GBP markets.
We suddenly seem to have lost all of our Hard Brexiters.
While No Deal would probably push Sterling lower in the short term, either May's BINO Blind Brexit or Remain would cause a significant rise in Sterling. I suspect a Sterling rally is more likely than a further drop.
I am not betting on such movements, but my equities are distributed in a position that hedges against these movements in either direction, as far as possible. It is not Brexit affecting the world markets so much as other trade uncertainty, the drop in Chinese markets in particular.
When someone finds a traversal vulnerability to escape the simulation we're in we'll be able to just fork the timeline in two and make a Brexit Britain and a non-Brexit Britain, that way everyone can have the politics they wanted, and also everyone will be able to win their bets.
https://www.gamblinginsider.com/news/6323/exclusive-lawyer-speaks-about-clients-17m-betfred-dispute
While it is quite amusing to see the level of incompetence of the ERG exposed, and Adonis's referendum looks unlikely in the time left, May's deal is not loved. In the likelihood that it passes on the backs of opposition votes, it will be subject to pressure to revise in either direction almost immediately. We are in the Brexit neverendum phase.
In reality, the final Deal will look virtually identical to the WA deal for the simple reason that all the factors that led us here continue to apply. In practice, our agricultural, fisheries, and migration policies are likely to be substantially unchanged, as similarly the same drivers will apply, and as our matelot flyboy points out, that includes integration of armed forces. We cannot escape from geography and culture, we are a European state with much the same interests as our continental neighbours in a globalising world.
Brexit will generate a lot of heat, but actually will go with a whimper. This will not be a Singapore in the Atlantic, but rather a rather drizzly down at heel Brexit. Adonis will get his #peoplesvote in the end, but more likely from the position of CU and SM vassal state rather than before Brexit day.
Very roughly: c.8 Tory Remainer rebels, 40 ERG, no DUP and a dozen plus abstentions. Against that she’ll have 10-15 Labour MPs with her, like Flint. But not the Hooeys or Skinners.
Against that she’ll have c.220 Labour + c.35 SNP + 12 LDs + 9 DUP + 20 ERG (not all) + the flotsam and jetsam. And a lot of abstentions on top.
But, it could end up being much more dynamic than that.
The future political declaration is where it’s at for me, and I think most of it is a reasonable compromise. I’d expect other stuff to be negotiated or change over the long-term, like observation and/or associate voting rights on common EU playing field stuff (in exchange for a fee) once they feel they’ve made their point on Brexit costs, “cherrypicking” and fear of other states pursuing the same path.
I'm just rather more accepting than most here that No Deal default is still very much alive and kicking with May's "deal"....