Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What voters think would happen if the Tories won a majority

2»

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    JackW said:

    Laws batting away Hunt's criticism with ease.

    Not too sure this Emergency Question was a wise one from Labour - confusion all round.

    It allowed Laws to illustrate the confusion in Hunt's 'love 'em/hate 'em' Free schools policy - and point out the many more regular schools with problems, but labour only ask a question about this one....
  • Well done to the government for the Commission on Social Mobility. Well done to Alan Milburn for leading it. Sounds like the report is a top class piece of work. Hopefully, what it says will be taken seriously by all sides. It really is the defining issue of this post-crash era.

    Alan Milburn is a very impressive guy.

    I wonder what would have happened if Blair had moved Brown to the Foreign Office and made Milburn Chancellor in 2001 as was rumoured.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....
  • Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Did anyone see Pointless yesterday?

    Naming the missing Tellytubby (Po) got more votes (70 odd out of 100) than the naming of eight of Blair's Labour Cabinet Members got in total.

    Just goes to show how little people take notice of politics.

    I doubt the vast, vast majority of people will take much notice until the actual GE campaign and then the majority of votes will be cast based on instinct and prejudice.

    Getting the public to 'engage' must be a monumental task for modern-day MPs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
    Farage standing would in Hallam would be a massive, massive mistake. Better he goes for Boston, one of the Thanets, Thurrock - a working class east/south-east seat. Hallam is NOT UKIP territory...
  • Talking about Trainspotting, I watched Filth the other week.

    Loved it.

    Irving Welsh and James McAvoy are utter geniuses.

    Haven't seen it yet, but like the look of the trailers. I believe the Welsh man makes a fleeting appearance?

    To keep it political, Welsh is Yes and McAvoy refuses to say.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
    Farage standing would in Hallam would be a massive, massive mistake. Better he goes for Boston, one of the Thanets, Thurrock - a working class east/south-east seat. Hallam is NOT UKIP territory...
    Yup, more chance of the Tories winning Bootle than Farage winning Hallam
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties. What odds are you offering for you to be polite to everyone for a week?.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Waiting for my flight at Seoul Airport and I read, guess what, it's the same old Tories !!

    Did Ashcroft need a poll to know that ?

    By some horrific scenes being shown on CNN re: Nairobi.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    TSE I never placed my Gunnymede bet btw - Think I didn't hit the confirm button with Stan James..

    All sorts of rumours abounding about her right now though so I won't back at 2-1
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    Financier said:

    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties. What odds are you offering for you to be polite to everyone for a week?.
    tim's on handover at the moment. New shift in the kitchen making a cup of builders'.
  • Talking about Trainspotting, I watched Filth the other week.

    Loved it.

    Irving Welsh and James McAvoy are utter geniuses.

    Haven't seen it yet, but like the look of the trailers. I believe the Welsh man makes a fleeting appearance?

    To keep it political, Welsh is Yes and McAvoy refuses to say.
    I didn't see Welsh in it, it may have been in one of the many drug induced scenes.

    David Soul was in it though, fleeting cameo.

    Forget those two, my favourite Scottish actor is a yes man.

    Alan Cumming, the wonderful Eli Gold in The Good Wife, and getting my geek on, Nightcrawler in the X Men movies.

    Oh, and Gutsy in the Smurf movies.

    Which reminds me of that great unanswered question, what colour would a Smurf's face go if you tried to strangle them?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Given that we have the second lowest prices in Western Europe, and that the whole industry is already heavily regulated by Ofgem which operates under rules set by the last Labour government (most recently the Energy Act 2010 which includes regulations on the electricity and gas markets and which was introduced by, let's see, Ed Miliband), I can't see that the lawyers would have much hesitation in seeing off that nonsense.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Plato said:

    I've clearly missed quite a story here

    Guido Fawkes @GuidoFawkes
    A lot of support from Labour MPs for @GloriaDePieroMP's desire to suppress topless photos on the grounds that it was before she was an MP.

    Depends what you mean by quite a story, but there was a long piece about it in th eGuardian yesterday. She did a topless shot when she was 15, because she was short of money. She now thinks it was a mistake. Do you feel the photos should in fact be published?



    Ed's problem when telling people the Tories are "looking after the wrong people" is that Ed just doesn't connect as "one of the right people" to deliver that approach. The North-London intelligentsia millionaire nerd subset just doesn't click with anyone.

    Except that Ed has a large, consistent lead over Dave in "Understands people like me" and "In touch". To be honest they are neither of them doing well at those, but Ed is doing a lot better than Dave, whose "In touch" rating is IIRC in single figures.

    You don't need to be a soldier to worry about the Armed Forces, or a single mother to worry about single mums. People will settle for your being yourself (intellectual, Etonian, whatever) but genuinely interested in them.

  • Pulpstar, crap, just seen the stories about her back problems and potentially missing this week.

    My latest tip is to back Susanna Reid, she's at 8/1, doing well, decent trading bet.
  • surbiton said:

    Waiting for my flight at Seoul Airport and I read, guess what, it's the same old Tories !!

    Did Ashcroft need a poll to know that ?

    By some horrific scenes being shown on CNN re: Nairobi.

    How's Korea? I am going to Seoul next month. Never been there before. Is it cold yet?

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,854
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
    Farage standing would in Hallam would be a massive, massive mistake. Better he goes for Boston, one of the Thanets, Thurrock - a working class east/south-east seat. Hallam is NOT UKIP territory...
    Obviously if he wants to win, Hallam would be insane. He lives in Kent, so a Kentish seat would be much better. However, if he "just" wants to get a lot of publicity. After all, he can be seen about in Sheffield, while Clegg, if he's still party leader, will have to be out and about across the country.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    there was a long piece about it in th eGuardian yesterday

    I think she was interviewed about it on the Woman's Hour earlier as well. If she was 15 at the time would it even be legal for people to distribute the shot?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,688

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
    There's no chance that Farage will stand in Hallam.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    edited October 2013

    Pulpstar, crap, just seen the stories about her back problems and potentially missing this week.

    My latest tip is to back Susanna Reid, she's at 8/1, doing well, decent trading bet.

    I hope Ms Gumede is fine and in good health, but I wouldn't want her to risk any injury by appearing on a dancing show. For her own wellbeing I hope she withdraws and makes a full recovery ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Pulpstar, crap, just seen the stories about her back problems and potentially missing this week.

    My latest tip is to back Susanna Reid, she's at 8/1, doing well, decent trading bet.

    Surely slipped disc could be out of the series.

    Doubt she is going to win - too good already - no journey.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Goodnight Vienna for Ed's freeze....

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    tim said:

    Financier said:

    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties.
    Financier vs Ricardohos
    Pomposity death match.

    Financier vs tim
    Winner vs Loser

  • Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    JackW said:

    tim said:

    More of the same

    @MattChorley: It's grim up north for Cameron: How PM reminds northern voters why they hate the Tories http://t.co/uoxohbS0zT

    The root cause of that is Cameron is seen as a fake, he'd have been better off, instead of humiliating himself with a load of fake photo stunts over a decade saying "yes I'm Tory scum, but I'll be competent Tory scum"

    As it is people just think he's a Typical Tory, but a chinless fake one.

    That's an interesting line of attack from a fake Cheshire agriculturalist and wine merchant.

    The Conservatives' Northern problems are specifically problems in Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, and Newcastle. Outside those four cities, they enjoy substantial support.


    I left Sheffield in 1997 and Sheffield Hallam went LD.

    My return to Sheffield will herald a return to Sheffield being a Tory city* in 2015

    *only if you count Sheffield Hallam and ignore all the other Sheffield seats.
    Are you predicting a Conservative gain in Sheffield Hallam ?!?

    Very brave indeed.

    God no.

    Clegg is going to win.

    The more interesting aspect is will Labour finish second and push the Tories into third.
    You're saying some Conservatives will vote tactically Lib Dem in Hallam :) ?
    I might consider it.

    I would definitely vote Lib Dem if the rumours turn out to be true that Farage might stand.
    There's no chance that Farage will stand in Hallam.

    Well it all started with a taxi driver

    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/473399/20130531/ukip-farage-clegg-sheffield.htm
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar, crap, just seen the stories about her back problems and potentially missing this week.

    My latest tip is to back Susanna Reid, she's at 8/1, doing well, decent trading bet.

    I hope Ms Gumede is fine and in good health, but I wouldn't want her to risk any injury by appearing on a dancing show. For her own wellbeing I hope she withdraws and makes a full recovery ;)
    Your concern is touching, hopefully this will allow Ms Ellis-Bextor to win.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    I've removed that Stan James 'confirm' button, its a nuisance !
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Goodnight Vienna for Ed's freeze....

    I doubt he cares, it's done the job for him already.
  • TGOHF said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Goodnight Vienna for Ed's freeze....

    This means nothing to me.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Goodnight Vienna for Ed's freeze....

    I doubt he cares, it's done the job for him already.
    You mean kept him in a job until the election ? Maybe..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Well done to the government for the Commission on Social Mobility. Well done to Alan Milburn for leading it. Sounds like the report is a top class piece of work. Hopefully, what it says will be taken seriously by all sides. It really is the defining issue of this post-crash era.

    Social mobility has been declining from far longer than since 2008.

    The issue is the horlicks that (all parties) have made of the education system since the closing of grammar schools. I'm not a particular fan of reintroducing them, because the model is no longer appropriate, but it's why I'm such a strong fan of free schools: the collectivist model in education has failed two generations of kids now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,047
    (OT. Agree with Eagle about Filth)

    It occurs to me-and I'm being serious-that Tim would be an excellent leader of the Labour Party. He understands how to give a narrative 'legs' and which subjects given sufficient exposure would resonate. He also understands that a narrative has to run in a straight line not be like a scattergun. Come on Ed learn or move aside
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Goodnight Vienna for Ed's freeze....

    I doubt he cares, it's done the job for him already.
    You mean kept him in a job until the election ? Maybe..
    Only maybe? What odds might tempt you to bet on him being deposed before then?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Gender Inequality in China: Jobs women not allowed to do!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24534782
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Social mobility means telling middle-class people that their children can look forward to a worse life than they have.

    I don't think many politicians will be putting that in their manifesto any time soon.

    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/the-social-mobility-myth-education-philip-colllins/#.Ul-9ijK9KSM
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013

    surbiton said:

    Waiting for my flight at Seoul Airport and I read, guess what, it's the same old Tories !!

    Did Ashcroft need a poll to know that ?

    By some horrific scenes being shown on CNN re: Nairobi.

    How's Korea? I am going to Seoul next month. Never been there before. Is it cold yet?

    This is a video of Seoul Airport that I took a few months ago. It's been voted the best in the world a few times recently:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX1HYgZeUVY
  • Roger

    Any film that features a man self pleasuring himself whilst watching and talking like Frank Sidebottom is a truly special film
  • tim said:

    Financier said:

    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties.
    Financier vs Ricardohos
    Pomposity death match.



    Still smarting I see Tim from having your bluff called to put money where your very considerable mouth is.

    Tim as leader of the Labour party? Only in the sense that Gordon Brown was a good leader. EdM is a disaster but I don't think he shows clinical signs of mental ill health.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,098
    Roger said:

    (OT. Agree with Eagle about Filth)

    It occurs to me-and I'm being serious-that Tim would be an excellent leader of the Labour Party. He understands how to give a narrative 'legs' and which subjects given sufficient exposure would resonate. He also understands that a narrative has to run in a straight line not be like a scattergun. Come on Ed learn or move aside

    The disappointing thing is that it depends on what tim looks like. I bet if EdM was contributing here we would recognise him as possessing acuity, insight and a great command of the left/left of centre political argument.

    But to look at/hear him I'm afraid it's a turbo-sized no-no.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2013
    Roger said:

    Tim would be an excellent leader of the Labour Party.

    Ha Ha. Do you really think an obsessive social inadequate will turn on the voters? Didn't work under Brown.
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    That Pointless yesterday was, indeed, extraordinary and I wish I could find a link. It's sobering for any poster and threader to pb.com. Not only did contestants and the 100 panel by and large fail to name any Labour cabinet ministers 1997-2010, except a few ministers by roughly 1/10 of the panel ... two contestants named Boris Johnson and Ken Clarke as being in those Labour cabinets. It was pitiful to behold.

    Remember these things when you think mid-term politics is of any interest whatsoever to most people in this country.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    surbiton said:

    Waiting for my flight at Seoul Airport and I read, guess what, it's the same old Tories !!

    Did Ashcroft need a poll to know that ?

    By some horrific scenes being shown on CNN re: Nairobi.

    How's Korea? I am going to Seoul next month. Never been there before. Is it cold yet?

    The weather's around 20 degrees celsius at the moment, i.e. OK. Have been a couple of times - found people polite and it's very safe indeed, but the general atmosphere seemed a bit dour, Life Is Work. Ironically was in Ho Chi Minh City on the same trip and amazed by the sizzling life there (more like Italy in underlying spirit while Korea seemed more like Germany).

    Was in Nairobi a few weeks before the massacre, staying near where it took place. People really friendly, but poor in a way I've not seen in a capital before, even in places like Lima. Plenty of scope for extremists with simple solutions. I gather it's one of Africa's more prosperous capitals, though...

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    tim said:

    Financier said:

    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties.
    Financier vs Ricardohos
    Pomposity death match.



    Still smarting I see Tim from having your bluff called to put money where your very considerable mouth is.

    Tim as leader of the Labour party? Only in the sense that Gordon Brown was a good leader. EdM is a disaster but I don't think he shows clinical signs of mental ill health.
    It was a silly bet proposition for a pittance.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    tim said:

    Financier said:

    tim said:

    The serious PB Tory intellects out in force today.

    Are we waiting for Financiers first ever betting post or is there another special occasion?

    Tim, you know I do not bet but only invest in certainties.
    Financier vs Ricardohos
    Pomposity death match.



    Still smarting I see Tim from having your bluff called to put money where your very considerable mouth is.

    Tim as leader of the Labour party? Only in the sense that Gordon Brown was a good leader. EdM is a disaster but I don't think he shows clinical signs of mental ill health.
    It was a silly bet proposition for a pittance.

    Tying the money up on the top of the drawer for all that time was the biggest problem with it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    I see another minister who was being taunted as a paedophile on the Internet has been cleared.

    It must be terrible to have people smearing you on the Internet, whilst knowing the allegations are utterly false.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013

    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 5m
    (Labour says that price freeze will be justified under EU law because companies charging 'excess profit' so sig if this can't be proved)

    Love to see the lawyers over this one... oh dear Ed....

    Given that we have the second lowest prices in Western Europe, and that the whole industry is already heavily regulated by Ofgem which operates under rules set by the last Labour government (most recently the Energy Act 2010 which includes regulations on the electricity and gas markets and which was introduced by, let's see, Ed Miliband), I can't see that the lawyers would have much hesitation in seeing off that nonsense.
    Richard

    There is a strong case to be made for Cameron/Davey referring the domestic energy supply industry to The Competition Commission. There would be both political and economic benefits from getting an independent and competent authority to look at the key issues which are being called into political debate.

    The core issues are pricing transparency (tariff complexity); industry structure (vertical integration: are excess profits being taken upstream?); industry profitability (vs. other countries and industries); transparency of tax imposition (should 'green' taxes be levied by the government independently of basic energy prices?); transparency of future industry investment needs (how much are we paying for today's and how much for tomorrow's supplies?); barriers to market entry (what impact could new suppliers have on the industry and what barriers, if any, exist to their entry?).

    An inquiry should also help avoid the lengthy and costly litigation which is likely to arise out of a government intervening in the market without proper justification. If Ed had been serious about resolving the impact of energy cost inflation on consumers he would have called on Cameron to make the referral rather than showboating with his back of the envelope price freeze plans.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    tim said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
    Prime Minister David Cameron says British Gas price rises are
    "disappointing" and urges people to try to save money by switching suppliers.

    That line just makes him look more remote than people already think, they all know the other suppliers are following, its a brilliantly stupid line which hits the buffers when the fifth and then sixth company puts up their prices.

    Shame you aren't so interested in this story today:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24560196

    Energy shortages are more likely without investment. Now, who agreed to close many of our coal plants under the LCPD, and who is actively discouraging energy companies from investing?

    Step forward, the honourable leader of the opposition!
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    If Ed had been serious about resolving the impact of energy cost inflation on consumers he would have called on Cameron to make the referral rather than showboating with his back of the envelope price freeze plans.

    And if Dave was serious about energy prices? This is as close as you've ever gotten to scathing criticism of Dave!
  • Winning here at scraptowers....

    Not quite SeanT levels but still over 20% up Y-o-Y for record Half Yr.... mortgage business suddenly rather busy too but most of them completing in H2 of my co year so that's not even in these numbers yet!

    Do I splash out yet more to distort Betfair on Tory maj or NOM .... or anyone offering odds on an outlier poll with a Tory lead appearing in one before 31/12/13?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574

    That Pointless yesterday was, indeed, extraordinary and I wish I could find a link. It's sobering for any poster and threader to pb.com. Not only did contestants and the 100 panel by and large fail to name any Labour cabinet ministers 1997-2010, except a few ministers by roughly 1/10 of the panel ... two contestants named Boris Johnson and Ken Clarke as being in those Labour cabinets. It was pitiful to behold.

    Remember these things when you think mid-term politics is of any interest whatsoever to most people in this country.

    Ricardohos, since you never got back to me a few threads back you can send £10 to the site when the Conservatives haven't achieved a 10% poll lead at any point or win the next GE by 10% at 2015
  • surbiton said:

    Waiting for my flight at Seoul Airport and I read, guess what, it's the same old Tories !!

    Did Ashcroft need a poll to know that ?

    By some horrific scenes being shown on CNN re: Nairobi.

    How's Korea? I am going to Seoul next month. Never been there before. Is it cold yet?

    The weather's around 20 degrees celsius at the moment, i.e. OK. Have been a couple of times - found people polite and it's very safe indeed, but the general atmosphere seemed a bit dour, Life Is Work. Ironically was in Ho Chi Minh City on the same trip and amazed by the sizzling life there (more like Italy in underlying spirit while Korea seemed more like Germany).

    Was in Nairobi a few weeks before the massacre, staying near where it took place. People really friendly, but poor in a way I've not seen in a capital before, even in places like Lima. Plenty of scope for extremists with simple solutions. I gather it's one of Africa's more prosperous capitals, though...

    I kind of got the feeling that Korea was not all fun and games when I received an invitation to attend a "banquet" which starts at 5.30 pm and ends at 7.00 pm.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574

    Winning here at scraptowers....

    Not quite SeanT levels but still over 20% up Y-o-Y for record Half Yr.... mortgage business suddenly rather busy too but most of them completing in H2 of my co year so that's not even in these numbers yet!

    Do I splash out yet more to distort Betfair on Tory maj or NOM .... or anyone offering odds on an outlier poll with a Tory lead appearing in one before 31/12/13?

    Backing CON maj on Betfair would be fab, thanks :)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    If Ed had been serious about resolving the impact of energy cost inflation on consumers he would have called on Cameron to make the referral rather than showboating with his back of the envelope price freeze plans.

    And if Dave was serious about energy prices? This is as close as you've ever gotten to scathing criticism of Dave!
    Neil

    I have never been a big supporter of the "everyone should default to the lowest price tariff" legislation. It is treating a (relatively minor) symptom in the wrong way rather than addressing the underlying cause of the cost inflation problems. I am not saying it isn't useful to consumers but that it should have been agreed at industry/regulator level, after considering other options for pricing transparency, rather than addressed by government through legislation.

    Dave's plan wasn't as ill-thought through as Ed's price freeze though, if only because of its more limited scope to cause damage.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013
    Lovely area in the middle of Seoul where they've turned what I think was a covered stream into a landscaped waterway with waterfalls, bridges, etc. Maybe Nick has been walking around there in the last few days...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh my

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-economic-boost-melts-labours-lead-over-tories-poll-shows-8886383.html

    Labour's lead over the Conservatives has melted away after months of improving economic confidence, an exclusive poll reveals today.

    Ed Miliband’s party has slipped to 35 per cent since last month, while David Cameron’s Conservatives climbed to the same figure, Ipsos MORI found.

    The blow to Mr Miliband comes despite evidence that his personal standing has dramatically improved since September when the parties stood at 37 per cent to 34. Satisfaction with his leadership has soared by 12 poi
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    More good crime figures (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_331209.pdf, although I think the CSEW are the same (possibly revised) figures that were out a month or two ago, not sure).

    More importantly the government has to leave its comfort zone of going-to-hell-in-a-handcart and paint a positive picture, even if it is one that includes "unacceptable" levels and/or high absolute numbers and/or "we can do even better".
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Too bad the PB Kinnocks were hoping for better news in the IPSOS Mori poll....

    Feel the power of Ed's awesome energy policy.
  • Plato said:

    Oh my

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-economic-boost-melts-labours-lead-over-tories-poll-shows-8886383.html

    Labour's lead over the Conservatives has melted away after months of improving economic confidence, an exclusive poll reveals today.

    Ed Miliband’s party has slipped to 35 per cent since last month, while David Cameron’s Conservatives climbed to the same figure, Ipsos MORI found.

    The blow to Mr Miliband comes despite evidence that his personal standing has dramatically improved since September when the parties stood at 37 per cent to 34. Satisfaction with his leadership has soared by 12 poi

    And so it begins.....
  • IPSOS/Mori has Tories and Labour tied on 35%, despite marked improvement in Ed's personal ratings

    Con 35 (+1)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    LD 9 (-1)

    UKIP 10 (-1)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Winning here at scraptowers....

    Not quite SeanT levels but still over 20% up Y-o-Y for record Half Yr.... mortgage business suddenly rather busy too but most of them completing in H2 of my co year so that's not even in these numbers yet!

    Do I splash out yet more to distort Betfair on Tory maj or NOM .... or anyone offering odds on an outlier poll with a Tory lead appearing in one before 31/12/13?

    Backing CON maj on Betfair would be fab, thanks :)
    Go on have a couple of ponies on me! Bit of Lab lay too for the shrapnel left in the a/c.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Too bad the PB Kinnocks were hoping for better news in the IPSOS Mori poll....

    Feel the power of Ed's awesome energy policy.

    I would have thought the dramatically improved leader ratings were good news for the PB Kinnocks.
  • in the meantime, tim told us to wait for Mori before we douglashurders got all excited about those polls at the start of the week - what news?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Neil said:

    Too bad the PB Kinnocks were hoping for better news in the IPSOS Mori poll....

    Feel the power of Ed's awesome energy policy.

    I would have thought the dramatically improved leader ratings were good news for the PB Kinnocks.
    At what point in time does toxic labour become a drag on ed then ;)
  • Too bad the PB Kinnocks were hoping for better news in the IPSOS Mori poll....

    Feel the power of Ed's awesome energy policy.

    You should have read the report.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,758

    IPSOS/Mori has Tories and Labour tied on 35%, despite marked improvement in Ed's personal ratings

    Con 35 (+1)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    LD 9 (-1)

    UKIP 10 (-1)

    Great poll for the Tories. Definitely on the rise and have the momentum. Bet they're kicking themselves they went for a five year fixed term rather than four.
  • Ed has moved ahead of Dave in the leadership ratings

    -13 to Dave's -14
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    IPSOS/Mori has Tories and Labour tied on 35%, despite marked improvement in Ed's personal ratings

    Con 35 (+1)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    LD 9 (-1)

    UKIP 10 (-1)

    I think tim summed it up when he said the Labour lead was "back to 5 points" the other day - we're still playing the same game as we were before the conference, where the Tories were about 5 points behind but occasionally threatening break even due to natural and temporal variation.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Ed has moved ahead of Dave in the leadership ratings

    -13 to Dave's -14

    Crossover.
  • Neil said:

    Ed has moved ahead of Dave in the leadership ratings

    -13 to Dave's -14

    Crossover.
    Anyone want to bet ed will stay in the lead until the GE 2015 in these Mori ratings???
  • Neil said:

    Ed has moved ahead of Dave in the leadership ratings

    -13 to Dave's -14

    Crossover.
    I've just said to Mike, PB might not be able to cope with all the furious spinning next month if the Tories have a lead and Ed has a larger leadership lead
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    A mate of mine's just come back from holiday in Beijing, where he saw Boris Johnson walking down the street.

    These toffs get everywhere ...
  • It's a fascinating poll, with a lot for both Tory and Labour. And it's worth remembering that it is well within MOE.

    What are not, though, are the positions people are taking on Cameron and Miliband - with big rises in both being seen to have moved away from the centre (Dave a touch more than Ed). Ed is now ahead of Dave on the leadership rating.

    All in all it is yet another poll pointing to a hung parliament. As well as one which indicates that people are beginning to put themselves on either side of what are increasingly sharp dividing lines.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    IPSOS/Mori has Tories and Labour tied on 35%, despite marked improvement in Ed's personal ratings

    Con 35 (+1)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    LD 9 (-1)

    UKIP 10 (-1)

    Interesting - the only question is how quickly will some posters rubbish the poll!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited October 2013
    Before the turnout filter of all voters giving a VI it was (changes from last month)

    Lab 38 (-2)

    Con 33 (+3)

    LD 11(+1)

    Kippers 9 (-1)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    felix said:

    IPSOS/Mori has Tories and Labour tied on 35%, despite marked improvement in Ed's personal ratings

    Con 35 (+1)

    Lab 35 (-2)

    LD 9 (-1)

    UKIP 10 (-1)

    Interesting - the only question is how quickly will some posters rubbish the poll!
    SAMPLING, PREADJUSTMENT, WIBBLE...
  • Remarkable poll rating change for Ed - is it a spike or the start of something more worrying for the blues...

    I know what I'm going to say!!!
  • So there's been a definite narrowing with Mori since last month
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,758
    One of the most remarkable things about this and other polls is how utterly dire the LD vote is.

    Either the polls are very wrong (which is interesting in itself) or the LDs are in very serious trouble indeed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    edited October 2013
    Taking another £50 of NOM by Ladbrokes. 13/8 a good price I think.
  • So with Mori Ed's is getting popular, his policies are popular, yet Labour's lead and share of the vote has fallen.

    Should we making a shy Labour adjustment?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    both being seen to have moved away from the centre (Dave a touch more than Ed).

    As many people think David Cameron is either “right wing” or “right of centre” (57%) as think Ed Miliband is “left wing” or “left of centre” (54%). These figures represent an increase of 8 points for Mr Cameron and 10 points for Mr Miliband since October 2010.

    Ed is now ahead of Dave on the leadership rating.

    -13 vs -14. Really?

    36% of British adults are satisfied with the way Mr Miliband is doing his job while 49% are dissatisfied (improving from 24% and 60% in September). His net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) is -13. Mr Miliband’s net rating among Labour supporters is +34 (61% satisfied, 27% dissatisfied).

    Four in ten (39%) people are satisfied with Mr Cameron’s job performance while 53% are dissatisfied (improving from 36% and 56% respectively last month), giving him a net rating of -14. Among Conservative supporters 80% are satisfied with the Prime Minister, 14% dissatisfied (net rating of +66).


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,574
    One thing, the FPTP geography and low Lib Dem share are both excellent for Ed so he could still achieve a small majority with a tiny vote share lead...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Ed's popularity has improved because he's now much more appealing to Labour supporters - however this latter group appears to be dwindling. Who could have guessed that [appearing to] vacate the centre would have this result?
  • New Thread
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak
    Prime Minister David Cameron says British Gas price rises are
    "disappointing" and urges people to try to save money by switching suppliers.

    That line just makes him look more remote than people already think, they all know the other suppliers are following, its a brilliantly stupid line which hits the buffers when the fifth and then sixth company puts up their prices.

    tim

    Are you alleging that the energy suppliers are colluding or co-ordinating price fixing?

    If so, there has been a regulatory failure at best or criminal acts committed at worst.

    If the domestic energy supply market is functioning properly then price increases which promise 'excessive' profits should attract new entrants and aggressive pricing from existing participants who may decide to give short term priority to increasing market share rather than margin.

    This is not purely theoretical. We see it happen regularly with motor fuel pricing as the major forecourt retailers (now mainly supermarket chains) compete for customers and margins.

    Cameron is therefore right to point customers towards switching suppliers as a means of saving costs. Increasing the willingness to switch is supporting those energy suppliers who might be inclined to increase their market share by undercutting competitors' pricing.

    Getting customers to switch utility suppliers is difficult as the inertia effect of entrenched monopoly state supply takes time to dissipate. But the market gets there eventually as can be seen with telecommunication service supply today.

    Of course, the advice to switch only makes sense if there is a properly functioning market for supply. But then it is not politicians who should be making that judgement without first making proper inquiry into and evaluation of the evidence.



  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Grandiose said:

    More good crime figures (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_331209.pdf, although I think the CSEW are the same (possibly revised) figures that were out a month or two ago, not sure).

    More importantly the government has to leave its comfort zone of going-to-hell-in-a-handcart and paint a positive picture, even if it is one that includes "unacceptable" levels and/or high absolute numbers and/or "we can do even better".

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/boys-quizzed-over-500-rapes-a-year-by-gangs-8335165.html
This discussion has been closed.