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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead back to 5pc in YouGov daily tracker but overall th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB lead back to 5pc in YouGov daily tracker but overall the party’s share looks stable
After yesterday’s YouGov daily poll which saw the Tories at their highest level since the March 2012 budget things are back to “normal” this morning. Looking at the detailed data today’s poll shows a more balanced sample with less need to scale up those demographic segments which varied from the target.
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Spending Wisely: Principles for a Good Spending Review, and
2030 Vision: The Final Report of the Fabian Commission on Future Spending Choices.
Both are freely downloadable from: www.fabians.org.uk.
The police are really up against it. Are we looking at yet another crop of Chief Cons about to fall on their swords? Is there a market on this?
Miss Plato, on Look North (Yorkshire local news) there was another police story, with a (former, I think) policeman trying to alter the will of an elderly woman to benefit himself by over £400,000.
On Today R4, there was an interesting discussion which concluded that the police should not be responsible for investigating complaints made against them. Of course it was pointed out that in Plebgate that no complaint had been made by the injured party, but I believe that the leaked publicity and information had negated that nicety in this instance.
Sticks to what he believes in:
Cameron: 54
Miliband: 39
Clegg: 32
Strong:
Cameron: 38
Miliband: 19
Clegg: 17
Natural Leader:
Cameron: 38
Miliband: 8
Clegg: 11
The move followed through-the-night talks between the union and site operator Ineos."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24546521
Of course the promise of plant closure if £10m a month losses could not be reduced must have concentrated minds. Also as winter approaches, expect wee Eck would not have appreciated the shut-down of Scotland's only refinery and major source of hydrocarbon fuels for domestic and industrial use and its impact on the voters. He would not have wanted a winter of discontent before the 2014 referendum.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/adams-under-pressure-over-knowlege-of-abuse-by-his-brother-1.1560761
I know there's an element of turf protection going on here - but its a valid point worth exploring.
Natural Leader:
Cameron: 38
Miliband: 8
Clegg: 11
OUCH.
It does take a few weeks for events to percolate through to the polls, not least because Joe Public pays a lot less attention to these events than PB.
Evens on a Con majority looks a poor bet to me still. I am expecting a narrow Labour majority myself.
while I dislike tims personal attacks and negativism, he does have a good track record on betting. I would be interested in his election forecast (and I think Jacks ARSE is about ready to emmenate also)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24545294
It's an outrage that being 'an EU citizen' seems to make the EU believe their stupid treaties supercede UK law. Who gets to vote in the UK should be a matter for us, not unelected, unaccountable foreign bureaucrats.
Edited extra bit: just seen some prisoners in Scotland want the right to vote in the referendum: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/25/prison-inmates-legal-bid-vote-scottish-independence-referendum
One odd thing about the IPCC report is talking about WMP's "colleagues" in the Met. Is a national police force on the cards?
On pb, many posters characterise the police as the uniformed wing of the Labour Party. I doubt very much the public agrees: the police are generally seen as being either right wing (opposing demonstrators, for instance) or as part of the Establishment along with the government. When it comes to counting votes, what is bad news for the police is bad news for the Conservatives.
Another question -- what happens if (when) Mitchell is brought back into the fold? Does he forget and forgive his fellow Conservatives who condemned him, and even the Prime Minister who sacked him (technically, Mitchell resigned) after reviewing the evidence? It might be safer to give Mitchell a job away from Westminster. The man is interested in international development: is there betting on the British Council?
The main factor worth noting is, as Mike observes, the stability of the Labour vote: as he's said, it's basically the Gordon Brown vote and a chunk of anti-Tory 2010 LibDems, and both have pretty much decided what they want to do. What varies is the Tory vote, presumably because the Tory-UKIP floaters are more volatile.
Far too much horses and stable doors for me. And his tone was dreadful. I felt it wasn't the tiniest bit contrite but combative.
I have a lot of respect for Hugh Orde personally - he's frighteningly clever in person and charismatic but I've been very disappointed in him as head of ACPO.
Anyone who read Inspector Gadgets blog (now suppressed) or books would know that the higher ranking cops are political and left wing establishment. Front line cops are often quite right wing. Indeed that is why the men in black suppressed Gadgets blog.
At a meeting with @George_Osborne, Ren Zhengfei confirmed a new R&D centre will be opened as part of Huawei's US$2 billion UK investment
ACPO chief gets thro whole interview without saying whether Chief Constables in Midlands were right/wrong not to discipline over #plebgate
The regulator has published a draft decision blocking Thames Water's request for the interim increase.
Thames had asked to add an extra £29 to the annual average household bill.
The draft decision will be followed by a short period of consultation to allow for any new evidence. The final decision is due in November.
Thames says it faces extra costs of £291m, because various items have risen faster in price than had been expected when the price regime was set in 2009.
These include bad debts, the transfer of private sewers, land purchases and higher Environment Agency charges."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24547166
This is to be applauded but what are the Environment Agency charges? The EA often acts like an autocratic loose canon and has great difficulty is seeing the greater picture out side of its own narrow peripheral vision. Locally near me it is again blocking the dredging of rivers that overflowed last year and flooded people's homes as well as flooding a trunk road. The Minister in charge needs to take a grip.
Yesterdays poll made her "walk with a spring in her step"
Today we shouldn't be discussing single polls.
In the words of the great bard himself "Following the thought process of a PBTory is like standing by a trout farm lake with a bag of LSD"
I quite agree - since PCC's aren't operational - they can't intervene but I'd expect the W Mids ones and Boris to be all over them over this. They are the voice of the public here.
I'm amused by the brass neck of the Police Federation. Caught red-handed lying, but only because that nasty politician took the precaution of recording the meeting. Yet no sign of contrition.
Who else would try to bluff it out?
And it is important. We know there are bad coppers but you'd expect them to hold up their hands and mouth platitudes like "lessons have ben learned" and "draw a line under it."
In the old days, when Dixon of Dock Green walked the streets, the Police Federation would have held up their hands and said. "It's a fair cop, guv."
a) the original accused crime was hardly major - we all get angry at times.
b) the leaking of the police 'transcript' seemed rather suspicious and political, detracting from their value.
c) it seemed more like a mix-up about what was said (i.e. he was not denying something occurred, just what was said), and
d) he had apologised, and the apology had been accepted.
But remember the way it was treated in the media at the time. It was a witch-hunt. Conservative MPs were faced with a quandary: in that febrile atmosphere, backing Mitchell was portrayed as being against the police and supporting the use of the word 'pleb'.
Most Labour MPs who commented were just opportunistic shits, uninterested in what really occurred or justice.
Unions have individual members as priority - not the bigger picture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=wYHu2GqSI1M
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgxN_cHmdnU
But if you want to play that game, why is Miliband sitting on the Falkirk report?
Sigh .... tim, so there was audio evidence was there?
Without that, there's only a few pictures and I can see you saying "Oh, our dear and trusted PM has some evidence that perhaps the police evidence wasn't totally correct, so we must give the Tory the benefit of the doubt."
"On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will rule on two related cases in which prisoners say that separate European Union law and treaties trump the UK ban - meaning that inmates have a right to vote in local, European and potentially Scottish Parliamentary elections."
Change of mind: You take deficit reduction bet, you know the one you yourself offered to DavidL and I'll give you an answer! Deal?
Still, it's good to know that you won't condemn such behaviour by the police. At least, not when it's against your enemy.
Remember too, despite what some on here are spinning this morning, much of the pressure to get rid of Mitchell came from his fellow Conservatives on the backbenches, in the Whips office and even in the Cabinet. Mitchell did not fall on his sword to satisfy Ed Miliband.
That the police might have gilded the lily for their own purposes doesn't affect the resignation.
If he had done as you say, you would be spreading your poison about why he released it, whether he should have released it, and whether the fact he released it meant that it was real or fabricated. It's the way you work.
The media were not interested in the truth at that time, and neither, sadly, were many MPs, especially Labour ones. See the videos posted below.
Some apologies are in order.
That and the police now clearly seen to be pushing the story for political reasons.
The critical question for 2015 is: can they keep it?
And you still won't condemn the officers' behaviour?
0.5% ....1.0% ....1.5% ?
Of course, were England to win the tournament next July, well then you're really talking!
Story is the same as it was, Labour have the heaviest support but also the most likely to stay at home. UKIP's support levels will have the highest proportional turnout come next GE I think...
"Some apologies are in order."
To whom?
A very eminent criminal barrister once said to me that in all his years practising at the bar he had never come across anyone who had confessed to something they hadn't done. I know there have been some notable Irish cases but that was his opinion.
Mitchell resigned which was an admission of guilt. I haven't the slightest doubt that had he not bad mouthed the officers he would have held his ground whatever Cameron had advised. It's just as simple as that. All the rest is fluff.
Of course the police would never fabricate evidence... oh wait....
On day one, I called this as bull as the wording was too perfect for the purposes of the police, the left and the media, and was criticised for doubting the word of a police officer. Well, until someone in the police takes some responsibility and stops digging, everyone will be doubting every word of every police officer. Their current line seems to be that lying is not a disciplinary offence. If that holds the entire police force is totally and permanently undermined.
Part of the art of book building is to try to ensure the right investor basis going forward as well as just maximising the day 1 price
So 3% less leftist faux rage please.
He stuck it out for a month - which suggests real conviction that he wasn't guilty.
I don't know if its reflected in the popoluation but some of the crap the scottish tabloids come out with at this times has to be seen to be believed
If it now turns out that Mitchell is a wronged man, and is only guilty of the minor indiscretion of saying "I thought you lot were supposed to fucking help us" (his admitted remark) then he is entitled to feel aggrieved at what has happened to him. A quick return to the cabinet might not be on the cards, but speedy and earnest apologies should be. And Miliband should be first in line."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2012/12/if-andrew-mitchell-cleared-ed-miliband-should-apologise
Well Dispatches showed it on 4th Feb - 254 days ago.
And no coppers have been charged or even disciplined and Mitchell has still not been cleared.
So he is talking pish.
It's just responding to RobD's implied question about how an institutional bookbuild works.
But, I know, facts are dull and get in the way of your political prejudices
"...This episode, sadly, doesn't belong to long-forgotten 1970s television programme for infants: it's happening right now, and, despite the way the Federation treat the public, involves people – us – who are neither children nor fools. Were I a police officer, I would be aghast at the thought that the Federation are my public "representatives". It would be interesting to learn how "representative" they are.
I'll leave you with a thought experiment. Imagine you're charged with a crime, and find yourself in court. The witness against you is a police officer. In the light of what we've learned about the behaviour of the "representative" body of police officers, and of their "leaders" in the constabularies; in the light of all that: how would you instruct your barrister to proceed?
By assuming that the jury would automatically give weight to the police officer's evidence? Or by analogising your situation with Plebgate. With Jean-Charles. With Harry Stanley. With Hillsborough. With Ian Tomlinson. With Mark Aspinall. > http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100241571/how-can-we-trust-the-police-after-the-plebgate-clanger/
@ITVRichard
That's the biggest fall in claimant count since 1997. Unemployment rate stays at 7.7%
Peter Hoskins @PeterHoskinsSky
ONS: The number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance last month fell by 41,700 to 1.35m
He resigned because not only was he continuing to be the story but the story was a particularly toxic one for the Cons - ie not all in it together and we despise you because you are plebs anyway.
As to Cam sitting on the evidence. Again, that plays to the pleb issue. If he had waded in there (and remember he had evidence not all the evidence) and it turned out that events were not as they seemed from the cctv then he would have blown himself up big style.
I don't think Mitchell was the most popular cabinet member and certainly some saw it as a great opportunity to vent their feelings but some perhaps much of that was because _had the police version been true_ he had trebly damaged the Cons.
"Mr Mitchell is therefore claiming that a police officer is lying in an official report – making a very serious allegation about that officer’s truthfulness. If the officer’s report is correct, then Mr Mitchell is not only failing to behave with the integrity that the Code of Conduct demands, he is also impugning the integrity of a police officer who has done nothing wrong."
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2012/09/24/labour-complaint-over-andrew-mitchell-over-plebgate/
Have the PB Kinnocks found a particular segment of the workforce and a timeframe that they can squeal about ?
Yoofs between 18.5 and 19.2 called Kevin up 250% ?
@statisticsONS
Pay in June-Aug +1.1% on 2012 in private sector, -0.5% in public sector: bit.ly/GWoaWQ
Share price plunge shame of Cameron ?
http://tinyurl.com/o7og33b
What is interesting is that while Labour also lost voters to UKIP, their share has stayed stable and not gone back up as UKIP have drifted down. However, this appears to be a feature of the YouGov polls, as a comparison between the May and October ICMs does show a proportional reduction in Lab/Con to UKIP switching, and not just Con to UKIP switching.
Perhaps women 42-45 since 13 Jan 2011 - come on Kinnocks - find that segment...
A nice attempt to make a point Nick - but Thatcher didn't need to sell the gold. So a none point. And then gold went to soar above that price anyway. So doubly a none point.
Brown didn't need to sell the gold either. What made his effort criminal was telling the market in advance of the size of the disposal - which created a false bottom in the market. Idiotic beyond words. There is no comparison with the Royal Mail float, which achieved the top end of the price the market was saying was achievable in advance. Of course, if Labour hadn't talked the price down, the national coffers could perhaps have got more...
The Black Swan event before the next election?
(naaaah...England to win ONE penalty shoot out is too extreme a notion to consider. Two???)