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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    tim said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 42s
    BREAK: IPCC says Police Fed officers who met Andrew Mitchell on Oct 12 last year DO HAVE case to answer over their honesty & integrity

    I'm sure they do, and the Prime Minister will need to answer why he sat on the CCTV evidence for three months.

    Priceless..... trolling of the highest order once again.
    It's dominating all the media reporting of it........or not......

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    edited October 2013

    Pulpstar said:

    Millsy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tim said:
    Do 5 out of 10 'certainty to vote' actually get off their backsides on polling day ?
    About 50% of them do, yes ;-)
    Applying that logic I've deweighted the ICM figures (They don't weight much anyway as one would expect with 1000 TRULY random phone numbers) and reweighted according to certainty to vote - 10/10 voters worth 1 person, 9/10 voters worth 0.9 etc

    It yields

    CON 31.5
    LAB 43.4
    LD 9.5
    UKIP 8.5
    OTHERS 7.1


    One thing though - Are all C1s and C2s out the house on their mobiles, whereas housebound benefit claiming DEs and AB's butlers are answering landlines ?



    ICM already do that, although it's a bit more complicated, something like 10/10 if you are certain to vote and voted in 2010 and 5/5 if you are certain to vote but didn't vote in 2010. With only 51% certain to vote in this latest ICM and only 55% picking a party first time round it shows how much number crunching goes on.
    The Labour vote seems to be 'softer' than the others. Is this typical of mid term opposition ?
    I think it's true of Labour, and left-wing parties generally. Right-wing parties like Con and UKIP do better with older people, who are more reliable voters.

    It also seems to be true that Labour supporters are more likely to answer the phone to pollsters, so you'd go quite badly wrong if you didn't have weighting and/or sampling techniques to rebalance the results you got by dialling random numbers.
    That is because dialling random numbers is not a good way to get a random sample because of the way phone numbers are allocated, as I've explained many times on here in the past.

    Good point, I should probably have said if you dial [actual, existing] phone numbers randomly - I think the same thing holds.

    PS. Ayn Random: http://xkcd.com/1277/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Given my first hand experience - I'd split coppers into the Gene Hunt and Dixon of Dock Green camps.

    They both have their place. But its Gene Hunters who tend to overstep the line and get caught out like this.

    On thread, golly gosh, just a pity that YouGov polls sway more than a drunken sailor on home leave.

    Whatever the truth about "Plebgate" the image of the police as an entity whom the public should trust will be yet further harmed and trust in them eroded. From personal experience I wouldn't trust most police officers as far as I can projectile vomit. That sadly overshadows the current and retired police officers I greatly admire and respect and whose honesty and integrity I take to be 100% above board.

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2013
    RT @Meliden: If a Govt Minister can be 'stitched up' by the police. What chance the rest of us? #Plebgate

    And that's the crux of the public's trust in the police. This is very damaging whatever yardstick you use.

    And of course any convictions they gave evidence in will also be ripe for appeal if their integrity has been found lacking. It's a right mess for Hogan-Howe who I initially thought was a good appointment.

    Now he seems as flawed as the rest - most disappointing.
  • IPCC:

    Their motive seems plain: they were running a successful, high profile, anti-cuts campaign and the account that he provided to them did not fit with their agenda."Although Mr Mitchell has made his views about the officers' conduct clear he has chosen not to make a formal complaint, therefore the power to direct misconduct proceedings is not open to me in this case. But bearing in mind the role of the IPCC in supervising this investigation and the public interest, I believe it is important to put my disagreement on record, and to set out the evidence so that the public can judge for themselves." -

    See more at: http://www.ipcc.gov.uk/news/ipcc-disagrees-findings-west-mercia-investigation-conduct-police-federation-representatives#sthash.qoynsJM0.dpuf
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    A Libertarian Rebel @A_Liberty_Rebel
    “..false account of meeting in deliberate attempt to support MPS colleague & discredit Mr Mitchell, in pursuit of a wider agenda” #Plebgate
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    RT @YouGov: 78% including 74% of Labour voters - think the last Labour government let in too many immigrants y-g.co/1bud8Sp

    But, but, but....
  • Gaunt Brothers PR. Their website seems to have disappeared.

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/dec/20/splits-police-federations-plebgate-pr
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    tim said:

    @Carlotta.

    So the question is, should London be excluded from Help to Buy?

    No, but the limit should be well below £600k.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I really think they're going to win outright.

    The Tory strategy for a majority is said to rely on restricting Labour to 31% of the vote, and increasing their own vote share on 2010.

    To give an idea of the challenge this presents to the Tories, it is worth noting that even with daily YouGov polls providing ample opportunity for outliers, the last time Labour polled as low as 31% was on the 27th June 2010.

    I wouldn't say it was impossible, but it's certainly a big ask.
    IIRC the article said that was 'the most likely path' rather than their definitive strategy. (It does beg the question of how likely the others are!).

    Essentially, I suspect it is based on the assumption that the LD10 switch is soft. If all of them switched back then Labour would be on around 31% IIRC. I suspect some of them will or WNV, so could easily see Labour at sub 35%. Whether that is enough for the Tories to be the largest party, who knows.
  • Ed's new cut through policies working out a treat:

    James Chapman (Mail)‏@jameschappers1m
    TNS BMRB appears to confirm other pollsters showing significant narrowing of Lab lead: CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0), UKIP 13% (-1)

    Expand
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 3m
    TNS BMRB appears to confirm other pollsters showing significant narrowing of Lab lead: CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0), UKIP 13% (-1)

    Ed is soooo awesome..
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    Plato said:

    Given my first hand experience - I'd split coppers into the Gene Hunt and Dixon of Dock Green camps.

    They both have their place. But its Gene Hunters who tend to overstep the line and get caught out like this.

    On thread, golly gosh, just a pity that YouGov polls sway more than a drunken sailor on home leave.

    Whatever the truth about "Plebgate" the image of the police as an entity whom the public should trust will be yet further harmed and trust in them eroded. From personal experience I wouldn't trust most police officers as far as I can projectile vomit. That sadly overshadows the current and retired police officers I greatly admire and respect and whose honesty and integrity I take to be 100% above board.

    When I reported our concerns about my friend to police back in March, they had the awful job of telling me that he had taken his own life. I was rather upset, and a couple of coppers spent an hour with me as we chatted about Steve and his life.

    The next day I wrote an email to the police station, thanking the officers for their help and kindness. A couple of weeks later, I got a call from a senior officer thanking me for the email, and saying it had been placed on the officers' records. He also said it was very rare to get a thank you from the public.

    Police are like the rest of us: good, bad, and a mixture in between. We all make mistakes, and so do they. But as a whole, I reckon they serve the public fairly well.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Pulpstar said:

    Millsy said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Applying that logic I've deweighted the ICM figures (They don't weight much anyway as one would expect with 1000 TRULY random phone numbers) and reweighted according to certainty to vote - 10/10 voters worth 1 person, 9/10 voters worth 0.9 etc

    It yields

    CON 31.5
    LAB 43.4
    LD 9.5
    UKIP 8.5
    OTHERS 7.1


    One thing though - Are all C1s and C2s out the house on their mobiles, whereas housebound benefit claiming DEs and AB's butlers are answering landlines ?



    ICM already do that, although it's a bit more complicated, something like 10/10 if you are certain to vote and voted in 2010 and 5/5 if you are certain to vote but didn't vote in 2010. With only 51% certain to vote in this latest ICM and only 55% picking a party first time round it shows how much number crunching goes on.
    The Labour vote seems to be 'softer' than the others. Is this typical of mid term opposition ?
    I think it's true of Labour, and left-wing parties generally. Right-wing parties like Con and UKIP do better with older people, who are more reliable voters.

    It also seems to be true that Labour supporters are more likely to answer the phone to pollsters, so you'd go quite badly wrong if you didn't have weighting and/or sampling techniques to rebalance the results you got by dialling random numbers.
    That is because dialling random numbers is not a good way to get a random sample because of the way phone numbers are allocated, as I've explained many times on here in the past.

    Good point, I should probably have said if you dial [actual, existing] phone numbers randomly - I think the same thing holds.

    PS. Ayn Random: http://xkcd.com/1277/
    That is roughly what they do (or did) -- start with a real number then randomise the last bit. The problem is phone numbers are allocated in blocks to areas to that the Tory voters at one end of the constituency have different blocks of numbers from the Labour voters at the other end. They are also more likely to be ex-directory (so your list of "actual, existing" phone numbers is already skewed).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Ed effect in graphic form?

    @JohnRentoul: TNS BMRB poll: CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0), UKIP 13% (-1), OTHER 9% (0) http://t.co/Ss5TcIHMnd http://t.co/U1IpKSbimy
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited October 2013
    Had a tweet to amuse plato: a survey (admittedly from a while back) found that 70% of respondents said television had NOT increased their interest in politics; however, 80% said television increased their interest in animals. Hmm. More kittens needed on pb?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    chris g @chrisg0000
    Whoa Another Big Poll Blow for Labour. #Tories now within 2% with TNS, both #Labour & #UKIP down

    Lab 36
    Con 34
    LB 9
    UKIP 13
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    edited October 2013
    Plato said:

    Plato - I'm the same on TB actually. Didn't vote for him every time by any means but I did admire the man's political savvy and knew he was a winner from the outset, in the way you could just tell Brown was a disaster, and EdM if anything even worse. I don't really like Dave C that much, but you're right about the Crosby effect and I think Cameron might be learning too. He's sharpening up his political game a lot and the economics are turning into dream timing for them. I really think they're going to win outright.

    Pure fantasy I'm afraid.

    I can see situation where Tories win more votes than LAB and where they might even win more seats - but an overall majority is pure wishful thinking. If they couldn't do it against Brown in 2010 they're going to find it even tougher going now.

    I notice that you never refer to the Ashcroft marginals poll which had a bigger phone sample, 13k, in one survey than the aggregate all the ICM Guardian phone polls in a year.

    That had, to recall, Labour doing disproprtionately better in the key marginals than elsewhere. What was a 3% CON lead in seats polled at GE2010 had now become a 14% LAB one.

    I think @Richardohos has a point - you have an alternative one. Calling anyone's opinion with the polls so close over 500 days out *pure fantasy* seems a bit odd to me.

    I think the Tories have a pretty good chance of pulling ahead - they've already been level-pegging with both YouGov and ICM IIRC in the last couple of months or so.
    Indeed Plato. For anyone running a political blog to suggest, 19 months before a GE, with the two main parties neck-and-neck and the third party sunk, that either can't win (that indeed it is 'pure fantasy') is blinkered beyond bias. But I'm afraid there's no telling him, despite the obvious trend at the moment.

    Oh, and Mike in case you'd forgotten Brown was the sitting Prime Minister with a big Labour lead behind him at the previous GE.

    I expect the Conservatives to pull away tail end of 2014 and win by 10%+. Shhhh, but it's the economy stupid: another Mike blinker point.

    The 'pure fantasy' remark will come back to haunt you Smithson.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709


    I think it's true of Labour, and left-wing parties generally. Right-wing parties like Con and UKIP do better with older people, who are more reliable voters.

    It also seems to be true that Labour supporters are more likely to answer the phone to pollsters, so you'd go quite badly wrong if you didn't have weighting and/or sampling techniques to rebalance the results you got by dialling random numbers.

    That is because dialling random numbers is not a good way to get a random sample because of the way phone numbers are allocated, as I've explained many times on here in the past.

    Good point, I should probably have said if you dial [actual, existing] phone numbers randomly - I think the same thing holds.

    PS. Ayn Random: http://xkcd.com/1277/
    That is roughly what they do (or did) -- start with a real number then randomise the last bit. The problem is phone numbers are allocated in blocks to areas to that the Tory voters at one end of the constituency have different blocks of numbers from the Labour voters at the other end. They are also more likely to be ex-directory (so your list of "actual, existing" phone numbers is already skewed).
    It's amazing the phone pollsters still manage to get through to any voters at all with all the phone spam and consequent blocking you get nowadays. To date the phone pollsters have tended to do better than the ones with online panels, but they're going to have a hard time staying ahead.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    tim said:

    tim said:

    Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 42s
    BREAK: IPCC says Police Fed officers who met Andrew Mitchell on Oct 12 last year DO HAVE case to answer over their honesty & integrity

    I'm sure they do, and the Prime Minister will need to answer why he sat on the CCTV evidence for three months.


    Priceless..... trolling of the highest order once again.

    The honesty and integrity of the police involved is on trial.
    But remember that the PM and Sir Jeremy Heywood had the evidence three months before they were forced to reveal it.

    The PM and Heywood may have had "information" given to them but I doubt it would have been considered as "evidence".

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Had a tweet to amuse plato: a survey (admittedly from a while back) found that 70% of respondents said television had NOT increased their interest in politics; however, 80% said television increased their interest in animals. Hmm. More kittens needed on pb?

    Mike banned me from posting any cat videos - I can't quite understand why since it was more myth than reality but he's the site owner.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    Plato said:

    Plato - I'm the same on TB actually. Didn't vote for him every time by any means but I did admire the man's political savvy and knew he was a winner from the outset, in the way you could just tell Brown was a disaster, and EdM if anything even worse. I don't really like Dave C that much, but you're right about the Crosby effect and I think Cameron might be learning too. He's sharpening up his political game a lot and the economics are turning into dream timing for them. I really think they're going to win outright.

    Pure fantasy I'm afraid.

    I can see situation where Tories win more votes than LAB and where they might even win more seats - but an overall majority is pure wishful thinking. If they couldn't do it against Brown in 2010 they're going to find it even tougher going now.

    I notice that you never refer to the Ashcroft marginals poll which had a bigger phone sample, 13k, in one survey than the aggregate all the

    I think @Richardohos has a point - you have an alternative one. Calling anyone's opinion with the polls so close over 500 days out *pure fantasy* seems a bit odd to me.

    I think the Tories have a pretty good chance of pulling ahead - they've already been level-pegging with both YouGov and ICM IIRC in the last couple of months or so.
    Indeed Plato. For anyone running a political blog to suggest, 19 months before a GE, with the two main parties neck-and-neck and the third party sunk, that either can't win is blinkered beyond bias. But I'm afraid there's no telling him, despite the obvious trend at the moment.

    Oh, and Mike in case you'd forgotten Brown was the sitting Prime Minister with a big Labour lead behind him at the previous GE.

    I expect the Conservatives to pull away tail end of 2014 and win by 10%+. Shhhh, but it's the economy stupid: another Mike blinker point.
    The LDs hold the balance of power, everything is bad news for Tories and EdM is masterful, strong and decisive. Didn't you get the memo?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    David Smith (less Con, more way )

    http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

    "Also today, the Office for National Statistics released its house price index, showing prices up by 3.8% in the past 12 months and 0.3% on the previous peak. I'm inclined to take this with a pinch of salt.

    This is a new series and the longer-running Halifax and Nationwide measures still have prices 15% and 8% below previous peaks. The ONS index is here."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,232
    Let the record show: the pbTories called Plebgate right almost from the off. As soon as records started getting leaked, we said "this smells of things with fins and scales..."

    And tim believed the police.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    'Allo, 'Allo, 'Allo

    What have we here then?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 3m
    TNS BMRB appears to confirm other pollsters showing significant narrowing of Lab lead: CON 34% (+5), LAB 36% (-3), LD 9% (0), UKIP 13% (-1)

    Ed is soooo awesome..

    8 point swing in a month !?

    Cons just 2 behind with Ukip on 13%.

    Must be Eds lurch to the right on benefits and free schools ?
  • Is tim suggesting Cameron and Heywood were part of any alleged police conspiracy against Mitchell?

    Serious stuff and no doubt will be part of any proceedings should the CPS decide to take this matter further I'm sure.

    Or is it some evidence of seeing everything through the prism of an obsessive compulsion relating to anti-Tory mindset.

    Tough call.

    At least the Reds can enjoy their rock solid opinion poll gains post conference season as already 'taken' by some on their side.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Toenails on the West Midlands Police Fed:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24535551

    Sadly, he makes no mention of the CCTV.......
  • tim said:

    @Ricardohos

    "I expect the Conservatives to pull away tail end of 2014 and win by 10%+"

    Do you bet?

    Yes
    Plato said:

    Plato said:

    Plato - I'm the same on TB actually. Didn't vote for him every time by any means but I did admire the man's political savvy and knew he was a winner from the outset, in the way you could just tell Brown was a disaster, and EdM if anything even worse. I don't really like Dave C that much, but you're right about the Crosby effect and I think Cameron might be learning too. He's sharpening up his political game a lot and the economics are turning into dream timing for them. I really think they're going to win outright.

    Pure fantasy I'm afraid.

    I can see situation where Tories win more votes than LAB and where they might even win more seats - but an overall majority is pure wishful thinking. If they couldn't do it against Brown in 2010 they're going to find it even tougher going now.

    I notice that you never refer to the Ashcroft marginals poll which had a bigger phone sample, 13k, in one survey than the aggregate all the

    I think @Richardohos has a point - you have an alternative one. Calling anyone's opinion with the polls so close over 500 days out *pure fantasy* seems a bit odd to me.

    I think the Tories have a pretty good chance of pulling ahead - they've already been level-pegging with both YouGov and ICM IIRC in the last couple of months or so.
    Indeed Plato. For anyone running a political blog to suggest, 19 months before a GE, with the two main parties neck-and-neck and the third party sunk, that either can't win is blinkered beyond bias. But I'm afraid there's no telling him, despite the obvious trend at the moment.

    Oh, and Mike in case you'd forgotten Brown was the sitting Prime Minister with a big Labour lead behind him at the previous GE.

    I expect the Conservatives to pull away tail end of 2014 and win by 10%+. Shhhh, but it's the economy stupid: another Mike blinker point.
    The LDs hold the balance of power, everything is bad news for Tories and EdM is masterful, strong and decisive. Didn't you get the memo?
    Haha! Indeed :)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    @TGOF - as the FT article explains, they are measures of different things - the ONS measures the 'value' of housing stock - distorted by the London foreign investment, Halifax/Nationwide measure prices.....both are valid measures, but they are different.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    SeanT said:

    Come on pb's Lefty Blob. Come on you Horrible Blobsters.

    We're waiting for the first lefty to use the word *sampling* in relation to this latest poll.

    Nice poll, lovely sampling.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    Let the record show: the pbTories called Plebgate right almost from the off. As soon as records started getting leaked, we said "this smells of things with fins and scales..."

    And tim believed the police.

    It was too perfect at the time. 'pleb' is just such a loaded work, and not one which is used too often. It would be like if the officer was black and the 'n' word used...

    Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786

    SeanT said:

    Come on pb's Lefty Blob. Come on you Horrible Blobsters.

    We're waiting for the first lefty to use the word *sampling* in relation to this latest poll.

    Nice poll, lovely sampling.
    Cor.... look at the sampling on that..
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Another good piece from YouGov, with some funky graphs:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/15/its-long-term-trends-stupid/
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited October 2013
    Outlier alert but massively funny and helps in the narrative perhaps...

    @MSmithsonPB: Chart showing trend in TNS-BMRB polls this year

    http://t.co/tWzf0RHUTf
  • I doubt there is a sampling issue with the BMRB poll.

    Whenever I see those polls I ask myself what Birmingham's premier pop-based, commercial radio station is doing commissioning them. Then I look more closely at the order of the letters (and also remember that BRMB is no more).
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Mo Farah will "rue the day" after he ditched the Commonwealth games to focus on the London Marathon.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Now an even bigger golly gosh though I have to say I normally think TNS polls are utter tosh. Happy to wait and see what happens next year at the Euros. OGH I suspect believes the Tories will win the most votes. Whether that is matched by seats is of course another matter altogether.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847

    Is tim suggesting Cameron and Heywood were part of any alleged police conspiracy against Mitchell?

    Serious stuff and no doubt will be part of any proceedings should the CPS decide to take this matter further I'm sure.

    Or is it some evidence of seeing everything through the prism of an obsessive compulsion relating to anti-Tory mindset.

    Tough call.

    At least the Reds can enjoy their rock solid opinion poll gains post conference season as already 'taken' by some on their side.

    Tim's being very silly on this; he should let his attack-dog instincts drop in this case.

    The government were damned if they do, damned if they don't wrt the Mitchell case. If they had taken any other course, then they would have been criticised for it. The media were on a sick witch-hunt, and one where the truth did not matter.

    I daresay the full story will come out with time, but it certainly looks as though the blame for the mess lies firmly with the police, not Mitchell or the government.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    SeanT said:

    The intriguing question is - if these polls are right, what is driving the Tory "surge"?

    It can only be the economy - especially Help to Buy and rising house prices (as I predicted). Nothing else has happened in the last month or two.

    If so, this is extremely good news for Cam and Oz. If the polls are this sensitive to improving economic circumstances, it means they could win in 2015 simply on the back of the Osborne boomlet.

    That's why tim is so paranoid and erratic about it.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Let the record show: the pbTories called Plebgate right almost from the off. As soon as records started getting leaked, we said "this smells of things with fins and scales..."

    And tim believed the police.

    And he's still siding with them, in a ridiculous and increasingly desperate attempt to suggest it was somehow Cameron's fault.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Not content with the "wrong type of growth", PB Kinnocks are now whining about the wrong type of sampling.

    DESPERATE STUFF.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    I doubt there is a sampling issue with the BMRB poll.

    Whenever I see those polls I ask myself what Birmingham's premier pop-based, commercial radio station is doing commissioning them. Then I look more closely at the order of the letters (and also remember that BRMB is no more).

    Haha all I can think about is the radio station as well, doesn't help with their reliability in my eyes!
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    SeanT said:

    Tories need to knock 5 points off Labour's polling today, and add five to their own, and they win an outright majority. .

    Which is almost exactly the mirror image of what happened between October 2009 (when ICM were showing 17 to 19 point Tory leads) and the May 2010 election (7 point Tory lead).
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Increasingly the word of the policeman is less reliable than a politician. Who'd have thought it after the Birmingham 6/Guildford 4?

    We've had hundreds of doctored statements with Hillsborough, dozens of other cases and now a Cabinet Minister apparently fitted up. If a Minister of the Crown whilst in Downing St can't be immune from being lied about and sacked - what chance do the rest of us stand?

    That's what's at stake - just as Kipper foster parents were deemed unsuitable by Rochdale Council Social Services for their incorrect voting. It makes the ordinary person in the street think - if it can happen to them, what about me and my kids or if I'm stopped whilst driving?

    Let the record show: the pbTories called Plebgate right almost from the off. As soon as records started getting leaked, we said "this smells of things with fins and scales..."

    And tim believed the police.

    It was too perfect at the time. 'pleb' is just such a loaded work, and not one which is used too often. It would be like if the officer was black and the 'n' word used...

    Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    "Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?"

    The CCTV I'd imagine.
    So why did Cameron sit on it, he's a coward at best.

    That's all you got? It's going well this morning, polls, police, Royal Mail but always the hope of landing a silly bet at silly price to cheer you up?

    Hold on Cameron = coward..... hmm, who else keeps banging on about cowardice about a right winger he hates.... Welcome bad AL!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    Off-topic:

    I met this chap a couple of times!

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2460396/Sir-Cameron-Mackintosh-upsets-mourners-foul-mouthed-eulogy.html

    On one occasion, it led to me having to watch a hardcore-porn film whilst sitting by the altar in an ex-catholic church.

    A true character.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Millsy said:

    Another good piece from YouGov, with some funky graphs:

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/10/15/its-long-term-trends-stupid/

    Good article - thx - helps answer the 'are the polls moving?' question (yes) and why (its the economy....well, you know the rest)

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    SeanT said:

    The intriguing question is - if these polls are right, what is driving the Tory "surge"?

    It can only be the economy - especially Help to Buy and rising house prices (as I predicted). Nothing else has happened in the last month or two.

    If so, this is extremely good news for Cam and Oz. If the polls are this sensitive to improving economic circumstances, it means they could win in 2015 simply on the back of the Osborne boomlet.

    I would say steadily improving economy and a lack of any specific shambleses getting them back the people they lost after the omnishambles. That seems to be the general trend, temporarily covered up by Labour's good conference news cycles.

    The big question going forward is whether this is a process that can just keep going and going or whether it'll be limited to the voters they lost in April, 2012.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,847
    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    "Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?"

    The CCTV I'd imagine.
    So why did Cameron sit on it, he's a coward at best.

    PB's prime coward calling someone who stands for election a coward.

    You couldn't make it up.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    tim said:

    @Slackbladder

    "Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?"

    The CCTV I'd imagine.
    So why did Cameron sit on it, he's a coward at best.

    That's all you got? It's going well this morning, polls, police, Royal Mail but always the hope of landing a silly bet at silly price to cheer you up?

    Hold on Cameron = coward..... hmm, who else keeps banging on about cowardice about a right winger he hates.... Welcome bad AL!
    Plebgate bombed, so they're having a desperate stab at Toffgate.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    You couldn't make it up.

    I believe the preferred term is "unspoofable"...
  • Paddy UKIP O'Flynn appears to be having some sort of twitter nightmare aimed at OGH??


    Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynnexpress3m
    F
    Details


    Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynnexpress3m
    @MSmithsoxdnPB
    Details


    Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynnexpress6m
    @MSmithsonPB
    Details


    Patrick O'Flynn‏@oflynnexpress6m
    @MSmithsonPB ””
    Details

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    SeanT said:

    tim said:

    ICM

    Preadjustment

    July Con 35/Lab 37
    Aug Con 32/Lab 37
    Sep Con 30/Lab 38
    October Con 33/Lab 41

    The PB Tories might like to calm down a bit, at least until we get MORI

    OMG, sorry, I forgot the other favourite Lefty blobword when they get a poll they don't like.

    PRE-ADJUSTMENT

    It's all about SAMPLING and PRE-ADJUSTMENT
    Don't forget the PB Kinnocks will be on their way to wibble about 'THE MARGINALS'.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    No it's not, the Tories lost out mainly to the Lib Dems, not Labour

    Sure, but the point is that changes of the magnitude we are talking about are common, and usually in favour of the government as the election approaches. So anyone saying 'Tory Majority Nailed Off!' is not factoring in the uncertainty of typical changes over 7 months, let alone 19 months .
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Let the record show: the pbTories called Plebgate right almost from the off. As soon as records started getting leaked, we said "this smells of things with fins and scales..."

    And tim believed the police.

    It was too perfect at the time. 'pleb' is just such a loaded work, and not one which is used too often. It would be like if the officer was black and the 'n' word used...

    Cameron was put in an impossible position to be fair. Who would the man on the street believe, the police or a politician?
    Number Ten reviewed the cctv footage. That's the point.


  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @CarlottaVance

    That disappeared post had me LOL
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Toenails on the West Midlands Police Fed:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24535551

    Sadly, he makes no mention of the CCTV.......


    Probably because the CCTV footage has nothing to do with Mitchell's meeting with the West Midlands Police Fed. What is interesting is that

    i) In the meeting the WM Police Fed acknowledge that the Metropolitan police officers who had initially reported the incident had lied.

    ii) But as soon as they got outside to the press, they said the opposite

    iii) That Mitchell had recorded the meeting himself and so had evidence of the police being perfectly happy to say something untrue in order to stitch up a government minister.


  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    JonathanD said:

    Toenails on the West Midlands Police Fed:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24535551

    Sadly, he makes no mention of the CCTV.......


    Probably because the CCTV footage has nothing to do with Mitchell's meeting with the West Midlands Police Fed. What is interesting is that

    i) In the meeting the WM Police Fed acknowledge that the Metropolitan police officers who had initially reported the incident had lied.

    ii) But as soon as they got outside to the press, they said the opposite

    iii) That Mitchell had recorded the meeting himself and so had evidence of the police being perfectly happy to say something untrue in order to stitch up a government minister.


    For me it was the hilariously untrue claims of appalled passers-by outside Downing St who were visibly appalled by Mitchell's conduct.

    Yet the CCTV showed not a bugger was watching appalled or otherwise.

    In the grand scheme of fit-ups = its dismal but imagine if this hadn't been a Cabinet Minister and in view of Downing St CCTV to prove the allegations and supposed police notebooks were lies?

    It's a very dangerous precedent that Diplomatic Protection officers would even think of doing this to HMG.

    I still can't quite believe it - its just so far off the reservation.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,671
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    @TGOHF

    "Edinburgh panda not pregnant"

    Oh really? I've just sent her a card

    I was told on good authority last night at a dinner in Edinburgh that they absolutely hate each other and cannot be put into the same enclosure as they would tear lumps off one another. Some marriages like this do seem to produce children but female pandas can apparently decide whether to carry the fetus to term or to absorb it.

    The bar for Scottish tories looks likely to remain at 2.
    The surge is doomed
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,671
    TGOHF said:

    Mo Farah will "rue the day" after he ditched the Commonwealth games to focus on the London Marathon.

    Cowardly act and typical of these overhyped non-entities that are spoon fed with public money. Hopefully he will get a good thrashing in the marathon
This discussion has been closed.