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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily po
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily poll
As yet I have not seen the detailed data to see if there were sampling issues which might be an explanation. I will update this post when that is available.
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;-)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
19 months still to go and they're almost neck-and-neck with a wilting Labour party, the economy massively turning and two spring-times still to come before voting?
The writing's on the wall. Catch up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/10377807/Well-never-have-it-so-good-again.html
A society in which most people see their living standards stagnate or fall, while a tiny minority very visibly get richer and richer, is not sustainable. And in the end the 1% will find they are not immune to the consequences.
Today's Matt:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Priceless. Yet again.
I think you may mean Camborne.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambourne
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camborne
Nicolae Ceaușescu thought he was one of the 1%
Wonder when that'll be out.
99 minutes 9 seconds
38/34/ the rest.
Marginals may indeed be worse but then again they will be the most volatile by definition so still all to play for...
Amazing how the PBtories get everything wrong on every issue and yet despite our massive influence the evil Blues are st ill within touching distance of what they scored versus the worst prime minister Labout felt like putting the blues up against ever ...
Remarkable. Just how bad is Labour in opposition? Their failure to outpoll by double digits must surely be a mirror of the supposed terrible failure of Cammo vs Brown...
Howzat!!
Cuts good or bad for the economy:
Net good; +4 (+1)
Necessary or unnecessary:
Net necessary: +33 (+5)
Who's to blame:
Coalition: 23 (-2)
Labour: 38 (+1)
I hope Owen doesn't have any ISAs - disgusting tax avoidance if so?
Owen Jones@OwenJones849h
Those who complain ‘Ah, but tax avoidance is legal while benefit fraud isn’t’. What does that tell you about whose side the law is on?
We will get Mori on Wednesday or Thursday, let's see how low the Labour lead is with that one.
1 hour 1 minute 1 second
https://www.google.com/finance?q=LON:RMG&ei=H-lcUvhVwpqJAus5
;-)
Markets are up on Betfair for the next race, but they haven't really got going yet. Only been two races in India so far, but neither have featured a safety car (unsurprising given lack of undulation and enormous, weak-kneed run off areas) so I'll keep an eye open for the No Safety Car odds.
On-topic, well, one of the upsides of continuous polling is that we'll be able to find it in the very near future. I suspect it's more margin of error than a significant movement, however.
STimes: Con: 13; LAB:38; LD:32;UKIP:7;Gn: 6; Nats:2; Oth:2.
Today: Con: 16: LAB:29;LD:39; UKIP:8;Gn:4: Nats:3; Oth:1
FYI: Cons voting UKIP: ST:15; Today:14
They could only find 32 men out of a target of 111 which means that the views of those that did take part had to be scaled up by 3.5 times.
With women in that segment only 58 were found against target of 110.
The result was that for this usually pro-LAB segment the split was 39/39/14/0
YouGov also had problem with finding Sun readers and those that did take part had their views scaled up 2.96 times.
So a male in the youngest age bracket who reads the Sun could have had his views scaled up by more than nine-fold.
(Indeed, I read something a few months ago that argued that the railways are under more central government control nowadays than they were under the later years of BR).
The fuel levy was apparently in the coalition agreement. It would be interesting to know if this was pushed more by the Conservative or Lib Dem side.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12648814
But again, there is a big difference between this and Miliband's madness. In his scheme, the government would be telling the energy companies what price they should be selling energy for, regardless of the cost of the energy to the companies.
This scheme is the government deciding to reduce their tax take on something.
Apples and oranges.
If we were all dirt poor there'd be zero inequality and quite a lot of starvation.
Anyway, I hope the green levies on energy get axed, but I would be rather astounded if they were.
Age Segments Labour lead (vs Sunday YouGov)
OA: +1 (-4)
18-24: 0 (-11)
25-39: +8 (+4)
40-59: +9 (-4)
60+: -13 (-5)
These will bounce around from poll to poll - it'll all even out over the next couple of polls.....
I'm looking at the internals as I type and they don't make comfortable viewing
The Private Eye Press Regulation Special...superb pic.twitter.com/cdo1htJEyE
I also think we just might be heading towards an election where the long term trend of a reduction in share for the big 2 will suffer a significant reverse. This may well make some of the marginals really unpredictable.
MT@jameswilsdon: UK overtakes Japan to become 2nd most frequent scientific coauthor with China, says @nesta_uk timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/uk-overta… <gosh
Vote LD for an INCREASE in ALL fuel bills (of 100%, according to BBC report at the w/e - more, much, much more by 2030 to pay for farcical 'decarbonisation')
Vote Labour for a (short) FREEZE in domestic fuel prices (expect road fuel prices to rocket); NB - RedEd got us into this absurd position as Energy Minister.
Vote Conservative for a CUT is fuel prices, as RedEd's insane Carbon/Green taxes are eliminated and a free market for home fuels is restored.
Good luck to all but Conservatives in selling their respective messages, though it requires that greatest of all impossibilities to happen - a politician (specifically, Cameron) to say 'I was wrong'.
Green taxes were, are, and always will be, a sure-fire way to strangle the economy, impoverish our people and stuff a few peoples' pockets with cash whilst impoverishing the rest of us.
Oh - and who was it on here suggested that we use the Chinese to build UK nuclear power stations some weeks ago? I assume we'll not endorse the suggestion properly though - allow the Chinese to employ their own people, paid at their own rates, under their own laws (inc H&S) with the UK only providing quality control (and any materials the Chinese choose to buy from us on open competitive tender)
The credit/blame (delete per partisan viewpoint) for this state of affairs lies firmly at the door of Alastair Darling, the PM's dependable man in the Scotch province.
(Psst, don't look at the SNP figure. We don't want the Surgers to notice...)
"I find it hard to believe you have a firm grasp on Mr W's ARSE"
I think you're right.There seem to be so many sampling issues my advice would be to take it with a large dollop of salt and just suck it and see
But the Deputy Prime Minister said that any decision to axe environmental levies on people’s household bills would end up increasing bills."
We have always been at war with East Asia http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10377848/Scrapping-green-taxes-would-increase-energy-bills-says-Nick-Clegg.html
How this will shake out I am not sure but we may well see a Parliament where putting any kind of a majority together is quite difficult with a much reduced Lib Dem contingent.
5 minutes.
INFOGRAPHIC: The UK as the global centre for investment in China - London & the #renminbi explained in 3 steps bit.ly/194291N
"Firstly, investors will be able to apply for a licence to invest RMB directly into China, under a RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) pilot. London will be the first place outside of greater China to have been granted an RQFII quota.
Until now investors from London have gone through counterparties in Hong Kong before being able to invest in Chinese shares and bonds, potentially leading to higher costs.
London’s initial quota has been set at 80 billion RMB.
Secondly, the Prudential Regulation Authority will begin discussions with Chinese banks in London to enable them, for the first time, to apply to establish wholesale branches in the UK, allowing them to scale-up their business activities in the UK.
The move is a significant development for Chinese banks, the five biggest of which already have a London presence.
The Chancellor, George Osborne, said:
A great nation like China should have a great global currency.
Today we agreed the next big step in making London - already the global centre for finance - a major global centre for trading and now investing the Chinese currency too.
More trade and more investment, means more business and more jobs for Britain.
London’s RMB market is the most active RMB centre in the world outside of Greater China and is the first G7 country to agree a RMB swap line with China.
London now accounts for 62% of global RMB trading conducted outside of China and Hong Kong, and 28% of all international RMB payments are made in the UK (the most outside of Hong Kong and Mainland China) surpassing Singapore
Con 298 .. Lab 276 .. LibDem 38 .. SNP 12 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. Ukip 2 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 28 seats short of a majority.
Remember first time I met @ChrisBryantMP years ago (at PCC seminar) he told everyone he wanted to see my blog closed down. @hugorifkind
Open borders mean the super-wealthy can flee the country and they control the markets can punish any attempts redistribute wealth can be punished
Green policies add 41% to energy costs by 2030: ft.com/cms/s/0/826d34… (£) That Clegg wants to block a reduction in these taxes is absurd.
I've 8/1 on UKIP getting more than one seat and 9/1 on another LD-CON coalition - both substantial bets.
I've also got 40/1 bet that UKIP would be in next coalition.
If there is no coalition but a hung parliament I've a substantial bet at 12/1.
My worse outcome is a LAB majority.
Labour 1.85
Con 2.18
Betfair "Maj"
NOM : 2.52
Arse fans can still get some value.
Still, I expect you will sink back to loaded voodoo opinion polls that use the toxic word 'privatisation' to back up your socialist tripe.
Clearly there is a case for allowing deferment in some cases (e.g. when there is a couple of whom only one needs care) and for insurance against catastrophic costs (hence the capping) but otherwise people should expect to spend the assets they have built up during their working life.
Are we into the "wrong kind of poll adjustments" zone already ?
In theory, the disagreements should get thrashed out before they hit the floor of the house, whereas in a single party it's down to the whips to keep the Peter Bones and Jeremy Corbyns in line
Drifting into fantasy though...if this were the result, do you think the boundary changes would get through this time...
Con within the range 290-306.
Lab within 268-280
LibDems within 38-44
SNP within 10-13
At the margin it reduces the ability to cut other taxes (e.g. raising the PA threshold) but should have a material impact on the perceived cost of living
1. The Fixed Term Parliament Act means that we know the date of the next election with near-certainty. Thus there's no potential for an early election, with all of the betting interest that would bring.
2. There have been remarkably few reshuffles, and those that have occurred have been necessarily constrained by the Coalition balancing act. This also has an impact on betting. There was a lot more interest in the Cabinet next exit odds earlier in the Parliament before this became apparent.
When you combine that with the absence of a Commons seats spread-betting market and the motivating principle of the site is much reduced in vigour. Things will liven up as the Euro elections approach, particularly if then followed by opinion polling on Scottish independence showing a narrowing of No's current lead. It could all be quite the run-up to the General Election.
anyway I do think discussion of these would be infinitely better served with a graph. I had a play with the approval ones (and, yes, people just knocked it
I might update my government approval one but see if I can find more of that European approval data that YouGov put. That was incredibly striking. Compared to everywhere but Norway, our Government is positively loved.