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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might hap

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    In Rowan County, Kentucky, Kim Davis — who made headlines for refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses in 2015 — is currently trailing in her re-election race.

    On the Kim Davis race in Rowan County, with 12 of 19 precincts reporting:
    Davis (R): 1783
    Caudill (D): 2172@heraldleader @BGPolitics

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I love the way they called VA Senate for Kaine, with less than 1% in and he is over 50% behind. Lots of geeks in green eyeshades.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Love the way VA is instantly called for Kaine and the initial vote has him on 25%. The most extreme example is Cook County/Illinois, but VA has massive urban-rural polarisation too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
    ;)

    I blame my metropolitan education.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    ABC has called KY-1 for the Republicans.

    Not a particularly gutsy call considering it's a district that is R+40 on Cook.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Dems now ahead 51% to 48% in KY 6 with 18% in

    GOP ahead 53% to 47% in Fla 26 and 74% to 24% in VA 7 but less than 1% in

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
  • Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
    ;)

    I blame my metropolitan education.
    If only you were as working class as me, it gave me great humility and legendary modesty.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Dems leading in 5 GOP districts in FL.
  • Denver Riggleman?

    Oh come that's a porn star name and not the real name of the Republican candidate in the Virginia 5th.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited November 2018
    Now a Democrat win in that Kentucky district WOULD be the first sign of a blue wave....

    The gap in Indiana still seems ominously big, though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Danny565 said:

    Now a Democrat win in that Kentucky district WOULD be the first sign of a blue wave....

    The gap in Indiana still seems ominously big, though.

    Seems out of whack doesn't it....

    Blinking early results.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
    ;)

    I blame my metropolitan education.
    If only you were as working class as me, it gave me great humility and legendary modesty.
    Legendary as in: not really true? :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    In the Senate in Florida the GOP candidate leads 52% to 48% for the Democrat with 1% in

    In Indiana the GOP lead 58% to 38% with 8% in
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Danny565 said:

    Now a Democrat win in that Kentucky district WOULD be the first sign of a blue wave....

    The gap in Indiana still seems ominously big, though.

    It’s mostly rural areas in IN that have reported so far so not surprising the GOP are leading.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
  • Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
    ;)

    I blame my metropolitan education.
    If only you were as working class as me, it gave me great humility and legendary modesty.
    Legendary as in: not really true? :wink:
    Of my many many faults, a lack of self belief isn't one them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    rcs1000 said:

    ABC has called KY-1 for the Republicans.

    Not a particularly gutsy call considering it's a district that is R+40 on Cook.

    Can they afford a picture ? Big splash screen on my telly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    538 has reduced their chance of the Dems taking the Senate to just 12%. The House number - 86% likelihood - has not changed meaningfully.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    In the Governors' races in Florida the GOP lead 52% to 46% with 2% in, in Georgia the GOP lead 76% to 23% with less than 1% in and in South Carolina the GOP lead 53% to 46% with less than 1% in
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    From 538, good news for Republicans:

    "In my home state of Florida, preliminary early exits (which, as we continue to reiterate, are fluid!) show 51 percent of voters approving of the job Trump is doing as president. If this holds, it may portend good things for Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018

    Mortimer said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY 6 9% in, GOP leads by 4%. It's still all over the place

    Not seeing much evidence of this blue wave yet, mind...
    Do you really have to be so patronising?

    :tongue:
    ;)

    I blame my metropolitan education.
    If only you were as working class as me, it gave me great humility and legendary modesty.
    Legendary as in: not really true? :wink:
    Of my many many faults, a lack of self belief isn't one them.
    Someone has to believe in you I guess. :wink:
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
    :)

    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Edit to add: though Monkey's Shoulder is quite nice.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    From 538, good news for Republicans:

    "In my home state of Florida, preliminary early exits (which, as we continue to reiterate, are fluid!) show 51 percent of voters approving of the job Trump is doing as president. If this holds, it may portend good things for Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott."

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059965209291513857
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Watching CNN and Fox News side by side. It's noticeable how CNN concentrates on talking up what the Dems are doing, while Fox gives more sheer general numbers. Fox's operation is much bigger than CNN though, it has to be said.
  • I see a big blue wave.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Democrats take the lead in VA 7 on 51% to 48% for the GOP with 10% in
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Some areas of London seem to have become much safer than they used to be: the area of Brent around Harlesden used to be notorious but there have only been two murders in the borough as a whole over the last 18 months.

    As others have noted, King's X is the obvious counter-example. Where I used to score smack or go to derelict warehouse raves there are now starry restaurants, piazzas, and St Martins School of Art, It is a miraculous transformation: King's Cross is now cited, across the world, as THE model of post-industrial urban regeneration. Architects and planners come from across the world to see what we did.

    The trouble is that even as inner city areas like King's Cross, Holborn, Paddington, etc, have been reborn, the crime has merely shifted, not vanished. The inner suburbs have declined: places like Harlesden or Wembley, once tedious but safe, are now dangerous and crime-ridden.
    Hey.We probs went to the same raves . You didn't hang around SOAS pool tables did you ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    42% in in KY 6 and Democrats lead with 52% to 47% for the GOP
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    I see a big blue wave.....

    Are you seeing Mrs Slocombe's pussy?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    GOP lead in VA 2 on 51% to 49% for the Democrats with 4% in
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Shannon Bream has a great ass
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    42% in in KY 6 and Democrats lead with 52% to 47% for the GOP

    Anderson County, which is pretty Republican, has not reported at all yet, so I wouldn't get too excited.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    CNN exit poll has the Republicans narrowly gaining West Virginia.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    538's live chance of the Dems taking the House has moved up to 92%.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    538 has reduced their chance of the Dems taking the Senate to just 12%. The House number - 86% likelihood - has not changed meaningfully.

    Dem chances just jumped in both (still only 15% in Senate)
  • Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
    :)

    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Edit to add: though Monkey's Shoulder is quite nice.
    Monkey Shoulder is Scotch.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Mortimer said:


    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Same here, but there are a few gems - George T Stagg in particular (although be warned, it's _strong_)
  • Democrats could be looking at 60+gains here....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2018

    twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059966994403999745

    Good timing, it literally just moved. :p
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
    :)

    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Edit to add: though Monkey's Shoulder is quite nice.
    Monkey Shoulder is Scotch.
    Gah, of course it is. I meant Buffalo Trace. Too many bottles in the cupboard.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    GOP lead in VA 2 on 51% to 49% for the Democrats with 4% in

    Fairfax usually comes in last and helps the Democrats win a lot of close races.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Betfair, perhaps driven by the 538 forecast which has just moved bluer, now has the Demos as more likely to take the house than GOP are to keep the senate. 1/6 vs 1/5.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    VA 7 Dems 50% GOP 49% 20% in
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Democrats could be looking at 60+gains here....

    Wonder if the DEMs are going to nick lots and lots of seats, things falling well for them where it fell well for GOP in 2016.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    KY 6 Dems 51% GOP 47% 49% in
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I'm calling FL for the Dems.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Florida Senate Dems 51% GOP 49% 13% in
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.

    Weirdly bad compared to the rest of the early votes...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Indiana Senate GOP 56% Dems 40% 15% in
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
    :)

    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Edit to add: though Monkey's Shoulder is quite nice.
    Monkey Shoulder is Scotch.
    Gah, of course it is. I meant Buffalo Trace. Too many bottles in the cupboard.
    Too many bottles in the "cupboard", eh?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.

    Indianapolis has barely reported, that will be solid blue and tilt it back
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    So far, the House results all look pretty good for the Dems, while the Senate looks poor for them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.

    538 had them winning that by 3.5 points.
  • CNN hosts getting very excited now.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.

    Weirdly bad compared to the rest of the early votes...
    Indiana is the only Midwestern state reporting. Considering that’s where Trump won, we should wait to see how Michigan etc turn out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Florida Governor Dems 51% GOP 47% 14% in
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tim_B said:

    KY6 swing like a pendulum do.

    I suspect we'll see much of that as the evening progresses
    Gah, I've eaten most of my election night snacks already. And didn't replenish whiskey supplies either.
    whiskey or whisky?
    ey.

    I drink Canadian Club on US election nights.
    What do you drink on Canadian election nights - Jack Daniels? :wink:
    :)

    To be honest, I find American whiskey pretty uninspiring.

    Edit to add: though Monkey's Shoulder is quite nice.
    Monkey Shoulder is Scotch.
    Gah, of course it is. I meant Buffalo Trace. Too many bottles in the cupboard.
    Too many bottles in the "cupboard", eh?
    :)

    I didn't say they weren't empty...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    So far, the House results all look pretty good for the Dems, while the Senate looks poor for them.

    Weirdly, 538 has IN on 84% chance of going GOP now, but their topline Senate figure has actually ticked slightly Dem. Not sure what other races the difference is coming from.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Ohio Governor Dems 58% GOP 39%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    rcs1000 said:

    Indiana looks very bad for the Democrats.

    Indianapolis has barely reported, that will be solid blue and tilt it back
    But, according to 538, the Democrats are dropping off by 15%+ compared to 2012, in counties that have reported so far.
  • NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    VA 7 GOP 51% Dems 48% 29% in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    KY 6 Dems 51% GOP 47% 49% in
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018
    Its very dull that US just call them district # e.g. VA #7 etc....We all love the weird and wonderful constituency names in the UK.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204

    NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!

    Wexden leads 58% to 42% with 58% in
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Its very dull that US just call them district # e.g. VA #7 etc....We all love the weird and wonderful constituency names in the UK.

    Dunny on the Wold rules OK.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!

    VA 10 is DC suburbs - getting bluer for years
  • Beto has slipped to 4.1 on BF. Was over 5 an hour ago.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!

    Wexden leads 58% to 42% with 58% in
    538 called that as D+7, so that's a really good result for them.

    White, wealthy suburban seats are going sharply Democrat. This bodes well for the Dems in California and Texas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    Florida 6 called for the GOP where they lead 57% to 43% with 64% in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    KY 6 Dems 50% GOP 49% 70% in
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    FLA 15 GOP 51% Dems 49% 15% in
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Mortimer said:

    Its very dull that US just call them district # e.g. VA #7 etc....We all love the weird and wonderful constituency names in the UK.

    Dunny on the Wold rules OK.
    Some of the districts are so weirdly gerrymandered that it’d be next to impossible to give them meaningful geographical names. You’d have to name them by their shape: “I call upon the gentleman from A Spider F*** ing A Crab to present his bill.”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,204
    FLA 26 GOP 50% Dems 50% 9% in
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!

    Wexden leads 58% to 42% with 58% in
    538 called that as D+7, so that's a really good result for them.

    White, wealthy suburban seats are going sharply Democrat. This bodes well for the Dems in California and Texas.
    No, 538 called that as D+10 (seat gain) but R+35 House result if that was the swingiest seat the Dems won. So, too early to say still.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    NBC calls the first flip of the night: Jennifer Wexton (D) wins VA-10

    Rather you than me!

    Wexden leads 58% to 42% with 58% in
    538 called that as D+7, so that's a really good result for them.

    White, wealthy suburban seats are going sharply Democrat. This bodes well for the Dems in California and Texas.
    No, 538 called that as D+10 (seat gain) but R+35 House result if that was the swingiest seat the Dems won. So, too early to say still.
    Could be looking at a different model? I think they have three different flavours.
This discussion has been closed.