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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might hap

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The November 6th US Midterms – where we are and what might happen, Part II

The midterms are for 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate, 36 out of 50 state Governors, and 3 out of 5 territory Governors. This is an attempt to summarise the predictors and is the successor to a similar article . The following figures were taken between 1am and 4am GMT November 6th 2018

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    From the Guardian

    Exit polling: majority of voters considered Trump 'a factor'
    We have the first tranche of exit polling – simply asking questions of voters as they leave polling places – and the Associated Press reports that health care and immigration were high on voters’ minds.

    AP also reports: “a majority of voters considered President Donald Trump a factor in their votes.”

    A majority of voters overall say the country is headed in the wrong direction. Still, about two-thirds say economic conditions are good.

    With control of the Senate and the House of Representatives at stake, Trump encouraged voters to view the first nationwide election of his presidency as a referendum on his leadership.

    VoteCast debuted Tuesday, replacing the in-person exit poll as a source of detailed information about the American electorate.

    In all, the survey included interviews with more than 113,000 voters nationwide.

    A note about exit polling: this kind of information is notoriously prone to extrapolation that later turns out to be, how to put this, wrong. So don’t take it to the bank.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1059931651793395712
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    That's a seriously mixed exit poll.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

    https://twitter.com/paulmotty/status/1059930651917541376
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    PB election results night. Rubs hands with glee, even with small stakes this time round. Not much value for such an unpredictable one. My best position is a big blue wave.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    I do love the NY Times website - I wonder if the needle will wobble again? :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/_ElizabethMay/status/1059933215169937408
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    RoyalBlue said:

    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/cnn-how-to-watch-election-day/index.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1059931651793395712

    Just went from 1.33 to 1.24.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RobbyMook/status/1059930096528711683
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    RoyalBlue said:

    Curse of the cloned new thread.

    Any good links to stream US channels?

    https://streamfare.com/cnn.html
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Andrew said:

    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

    https://twitter.com/paulmotty/status/1059930651917541376

    Hmph, that doesn't seem too encouraging to me - surely anyone who approves of Trump will be voting Republican...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Foxy said:

    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791

    Immigration+Economy > Healthcare. Those are two Trump strengths vs his main weakness.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    They must have an online stream somewhere.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
    Best wishes to you and Mrs G and I really hope you get better soon. Take care of yourselves. We need you here!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    They must have an online stream somewhere.
    Weirdly fox and cnn don’t follow the likes of sky and stream on YouTube / via their website 24/7...helpfully people normally unofficially do it for them on YouTube.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Danny565 said:

    Andrew said:

    Total disapprove-approve from the exit poll:

    https://twitter.com/paulmotty/status/1059930651917541376

    Hmph, that doesn't seem too encouraging to me - surely anyone who approves of Trump will be voting Republican...
    Yeah just needs 3 or 4 points from the disapproves to swing over and Trump holds the house.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Fox news was the best in 2016. Best analysis and fastest with the declarations.

    Actually not trolling.

    They no longer air in the UK.
    It's on my TV xD
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Sorry for repeat, but new thread curse. FPT.

    RE Rugby. The problem with RU is the ludicrous number of replacements allowed. Basically a half a new team comes on in the second half. That and the length of time to set scrums and line outs, Ditto treatment for injuries. Giving everyone a chance for a breather.
    All of these, as well as "enhanced" growth measures are leading to bigger players.
    Solutions.
    1 4 subs only. Once off you can't return. Exception for genuine blood bins.
    2 No breaks for injuries. Unless serious, play continues. If the play is stopped player must be subbed.
    3 Shot clock for line outs. 20 seconds to throw it in.
    4 Same for scrums. No resetting. Penalty or play on.

    All of these would lead to players with greater anaerobic fitness and smaller players.

    Re Haka. It was Howie Tamati of NZRL, in the 80's, and an actual, genuine Maori chief, who introduced it as a culturally meaningful ceremony, and therefore intimidatory, rather than part of the pre-match entertainment. It was part of his traditional duties and role out with the rugby field.
    Edit: he was a candidate for Maori Party at GE 2017, and has been an elected councillor.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Apparently there are three exit polls this time round......
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Foxy said:

    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791

    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    CNN preliminary exit polls looking grim for Trumpton.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791

    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Cyclefree said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    fpr for Big G

    Best of luck, old boy. I am in a similar position. Very significant family events have put Brexit in perspective. In the end Brexit is a trade negotiation.

    Love, life and death can make it seem tediously trivial.

    Thanks and wise words of wisdom
    Best wishes to you and Mrs G and I really hope you get better soon. Take care of yourselves. We need you here!
    You are so kind and we will pick up soon hopefully
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Hope Big G feels better soon. :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I can assure everyone that Fox News is reliably spinning for the GOP
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1059931651793395712

    Just went from 1.33 to 1.24.
    Just remember the early betting moves in 2016 after exit polls..all toward Hilary.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Whilst we wait, Dems take Guam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guamanian_gubernatorial_election,_2018
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    What were Pelosi's ratings?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    And I'm agreeing with you. They take so long getting to the important information that I just totally ignore them now as it is a waste of intellectual effort.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    A 55-44 unfavourables split for Trump is far from a disaster for the GOP. They need to swing around 4 points from column A, not an insurmountable challenge.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    GIN1138 said:

    Hope Big G feels better soon. :)

    Thanks Gin

    And now is the time to call it a night

    Hope everyone has a great nights rest and a successful betting night

    Good night folks
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Advert watch
    Trucks, drugs, crisps, care plan, banks.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/1059933319398350848?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    If the GOP do hold the House it'll be down to the economy and the dire ratings for Nancy Pelosi as per the CNN exit poll.

    What were Pelosi's ratings?
    Something like favourable 31/unfavourable 55.

    GOP was something like favourable 44/unfavourable 55.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Whilst we wait, Dems take Guam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guamanian_gubernatorial_election,_2018

    That's a big swing to be fair
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    Anazina said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
    They do this every time I have watched an election with them....in 3hrs they are still “breaking news”, exit poll says Cuban family guy fans in plantation, Florida Trump favourability rating are...
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anazina said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Alistair said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN normally do that really annoying thing where they spin an exit poll out over 3-4hrs of coverage by telling us how left handed red head Asian dog owners voted etc.

    Yes. Screw the CNN exit poll shit. Pay it no heed.
    That isn’t what I am saying....I am saying they normally have this annoying habit of spinning it out for hours on end rather than just give the headline figures first in the way bbc does on election night.
    The first polls haven’t closed yet so presumably they are waiting for that.

    CNN is channel 607 for those with Virgin cable.
    They do this every time I have watched an election with them....in 3hrs they are still “breaking news”, exit poll says Cuban family guy fans in plantation, Florida Trump favourability rating are...
    Watching CNN will send you asleep very quickly..

    What time does Brillo start his coverage?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Go Long on Khan

    Nah he will be fine. London is labour city, His opponent is a lightweight and Khan is effective at campaigning.

    Khan isn’t a leader. He was the same as a minister, he gets bugger all done.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Sending best wishes to Big_G and his wife.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791

    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
    What an unlovely expression.

    Thanks to you (and Bromptonaut) for the links :smile:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    Is there actually any us channel (tradition or online) that is any good. The likes of Young Turks is very popular and isn’t boring in the way CNN is, but they are incredibly beep beep beep.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Healthcare top issue:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1059934458332278791

    Maybe I'm being silly, but surely it's obvious the economy would not be the seen as the most important issue if most people think its condition is pretty good?
    The Tories led on the economy in 1997, didn't stop them getting pounded like a dockside hooker at the general election.
    What an unlovely expression.

    Thanks to you (and Bromptonaut) for the links :smile:
    I’m a blunt plain speaking Yorkshireman.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Fpt best wishes to Mr and Mrs Big G.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Go Long on Khan

    Nah he will be fine. London is labour city, His opponent is a lightweight and Khan is effective at campaigning.

    Khan isn’t a leader. He was the same as a minister, he gets bugger all done.
    I must admit Newsnight last night was the first time I'd heard Bailey speak. I recalled someone on here talking him up, so was surprised at how mediocre he seemed.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    Gives an extra hour for Republicans to vote?
    Oh and get well soon Mr and Mrs G.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Mainly London only
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RichardGowan1/status/1059939832342986752
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Shaun Bailey is super impressive not sure what you’re all talking about.

    That I am super green on him for London Mayor is beside the point. Or rather it emphasises it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1059940282098114560
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Pulpstar said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Whilst we wait, Dems take Guam:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guamanian_gubernatorial_election,_2018

    That's a big swing to be fair
    Even worse for the GOP as the write-in candidate who got 22% to the GOP’s 26% was the loser of the Dem primary. Mind you the island territories are not at all indicative of the mainland.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    The main topic of the CNN exit polling appears to be 'the bleeding obvious'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    edited November 2018
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    The main topic of the CNN exit polling appears to be 'the bleeding obvious'.

    Well it makes a change from 24/7 with every sentence starting with Trump.....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good evening everyone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1059940282098114560

    Shame - not necessarily the outcome itself, just that with so much written and read about all this I was hoping for a few 'Oh wow' moments, and that would have been one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
    Can't wait for the numbers to start rolling in. I don't have a spreadsheet this time though.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1059940282098114560

    Shame - not necessarily the outcome itself, just that with so much written and read about all this I was hoping for a few 'Oh wow' moments, and that would have been one.
    Yes, it would be the Portillo Moment of these elections.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many but, with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100. there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.

    Not sure Khan can be blamed tbh.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059899479401418752?s=19

    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Londoners don't care. Khan may actually have a point when he says he is battling a nationwide phenomenon the trouble is he looks terrible when he says it, and then he says "it will take a generation to beat this". That's just shit politics. As that black mother made very plain.

    He's crap, he's got no new ideas, he's a nullity, and no good at his job. And he still has those iffy Islamist links.

    He will win again in London simply because London is, right now, so Labour (and Remainer) and only a Boris type Tory (super charismatic and interestingly politically incorrect) could win in these circs, and even then it would be difficult.

    My point - to bettors - is to forget him as a potential Blairite rival and replacement for Corbyn. They need a superior candidate than Khan to win over the kidz and the Trotz.

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited November 2018
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059899479401418752?s=19

    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    Nah. A good advocate doesn't have to like his client or his case to argue for it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    CNN's clock just hit 0:00 and.... absolubtely nothing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    edited November 2018
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059899479401418752?s=19

    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    You assume that, but I'd bet party lawyers are probably not concerned in the slightest. Being part of a party machinery seems to remove a lot of people's concerns about anything other than party advantage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Oh wait more shitty exit polls about the impact of owning dogs vs cats
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    Benpointer said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many but, with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100. there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.

    Not sure Khan can be blamed tbh.
    In 2003 there were just over 200 murders in London, but for some reason — I honestly don't know why — it didn't make much impact on the news at the time, and I was following the news pretty closely back then.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_London#Murder
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,296
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Why are the polls closing an hour later on Fox than CNN lol

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1059899479401418752?s=19

    Imagine being the person arguing people shouldn't be allowed to vote. What an utter shit you must feel like.
    One imagines that anyone who’s been an attorney for the Republicans in recent years will be used to the feeling.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,296
    “... a rather nasty respiratory infection that has been with us for over four weeks and has utterly drained us...”
    Four weeks is nasty indeed.
    Get well soon, Mr & Mrs. G.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    SeanT said:

    Benpointer said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan


    That's 117 murders in London so far this year, which is 117 too many, but( with the exception of 2012-2014 when it dipped below 100) there have generally been between 100 and 200 murders every year over the past 30 years.
    Are you a Londoner? It feels like you are not.

    On top of this horrible knife murder epidemic you have the acid attacks and the moped robberies (of which, apparently, 5% end in a successful prosecution and conviction - basically it's a punishment-free crime)

    Khan, perhaps unluckily, or not, has presided over all this. He is now, for the first time, getting the blame. And he has no vivid answers. Or, indeed, answers. Sitting there looking awkward on breakfast TV saying "this will take ten years to solve, at least" is just a terrible position. It's the argument of an academic, not a politician.

    Boris, for all his faults, would not have made these basic media mistakes. Faced with these crimes, you have to appear active and angry, not passive and theoretical.

    FAIL.
    I saw an attempted moped theft a few months ago in Whitechapel. Butterfingered thief dropped the victim's item after snatching it. Seeing her pick it up and carry on her conversation as if nothing had happened was almost more chilling than the attempted robbery itself.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good evening everyone.

    Evening Andy J. :D

    Ready for another election night on PB? :)
    Can't wait for the numbers to start rolling in. I don't have a spreadsheet this time though.
    All the bookies breathe a huge sigh of relief.....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1059936502627614721
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh wait more shitty exit polls about the impact of owning dogs vs cats

    71% of those polled said Cats and Dogs living together was 'unfavorable' etc etc
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,150
    And we are off on CNN with actual votes...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    More voters want to see Democrats in control of the house than Republicans (53 percent to 43 percent).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    15 minutes ago the GOP were 5.3 to hold the House but now it's back down to 3.6 again, which is pretty much where it was earlier in the day.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131974989
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Where are people watching CNN?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Healthcare being a major issue in exit polls favours Ds. Looks like voters are realizing that hated Obamacare was the beloved ACA all along!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.
  • M.PartridgeM.Partridge Posts: 70
    Anyone got a good live results webpage?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    M.Partridge said:

    Anyone got a good live results webpage?

    You're on it...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,015
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059946806589702144
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    SeanT said:

    Dixie:

    ****

    Difficult to argue with that. When I lived in London and then Manchester in the 90's, there was no dispute which city felt more dangerous.
    They certainly feel different now.

    ***

    Very very depressingly, a few weeks ago I felt unsafe in London - for the very first time - with my older daughter and her mother. It was a sunny Sunday afternoon, on the South Bank, outside the National Gallery. I was few minutes late and when I showed up my daughter's mother said "you've missed all the fun, the police have been here twice". Apparently they were breaking up fights (possibly knife fights, I'm not sure - but certainly bad enough to require multiple cop vans)

    And this was broad daylight, on the South Bank, on a sunny Sunday arvo. I have never had that experience before.

    Londoners have a sense their city is slipping out of control. It may be delusional when you look at the stats, but on the streets that is, sometimes, how it feels. There is an extra edge and sketchiness.

    And this is on Khan's Watch. He can bleat all he likes about Tory cuts but he is the mayor and his reputation will take the hit.

    London will soon need a Giuliani
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    dixiedean said:

    SeanT said:

    Two more stabbings in London tonight. A black mother is on BBC TV saying Khan is not doing enough - "he talks about ten years, but our youths are dying NOW"

    I wonder if he might be in trouble. Even if he wins the mayoralty, again, his ineffectual waffling, in the face of this violence, is seriously damaging his long term reputation. Not an inspiring leader.

    Sell Khan

    Are stabbings/gang related violence up Nationwide? Or is this a particularly London thing? Don't know, just asking. If they aren't, you may have a point. If they are then fingers may be better pointed at UK government.
    Mainly London only
    We provincials like to keep up with metropolitan fashions:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/sep/07/county-lines-illegal-drug-trade-trafficking-oxfordshire

    This stabbing was in my workplace. Brave nurse in the video!

    https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/chilling-video-shows-thug-stab-1936324
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Evening all,

    Exciting on the betting front, but due to commitments tomorrow, not sure how long I will last the night.

    I'm on Dem majority in Senate, and wins in TX and Tennessee.

    Oh dear...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    M.Partridge said:

    Anyone got a good live results webpage?

    CNN:
    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house

    NYT:
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059947544111923201
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    l always forget the painful early hours of US elections, before seats are called, when we try and predict trends from ward level data.

    To be honest, we're just as bad.

    'Rumours of x safe Tory seat looking close'

    2 hours later

    x safe Tory seat won by 10k votes
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059947407792836618
This discussion has been closed.