Nice article, but it seems vanishingly unlikely that the Dems would be up one seat in the Senate whilst failing to gain the House. If the polls have underestimated the GOP, or underestimated enthusiasm from Trump's core support, they have done so for both Senate and House. Just 16 Democrat House gains would make the GOP extremely confident in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and even Florida.
Steris today the largest company in our industry and a multi billion dollar company announced it is moving registered HQ from the UK to Ireland due to Brexit. Not sure how much tax revenue this will cost the UK but if they are moving when will others go. Ireland has a good reason for talks to fail and a hard Brexit to happen.
Recent economic sentiment data has been tough across all sectors. Are we heading for a self imposed recession? I get the feeling TM is running out of time.
It's the double taxation / withholding tax issue that I keep banging on about.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
I've got him as red in the book, and can't see the big short odds case for him. If Brexit works, May is going nowhere. If it doesn't then he's down with the Govt ship. Id have the big offices of state (Hunt, Javid) ahead of him. I don't particularly rate him to be honest. Looks like another false favourite to me
He's close to both Michael Gove and David Davis, I can see them both endorsing him
If it happens then JohnO becomes the most influential PBer of all time.
I thought ‘Archer Australia’ and ‘Mortimer’ were considered the only serious contenders for the accolade.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
I think the Republicans will take Missouri too, and have a good shot at Indiana. West Virginia, Florida and Montana will, I suspect, stay Democrat.
On the other side of the equation, I think the Dems will probably sneak Nevada, and may also grab Arizona.
My central assumption is R + 1 in the Senate, but I think R + 2 is nearly as likely.
I think you're broadly right, but the Ds will just hold MO and ID. I am still hoping for an upset in TN or (please!) TX but I doubt it'll happen.
That's the thing, isn't it?
Is it possible that the Dems nab both Nevada and Arizona, while only losing ND? Absolutely. And both TN and TX are theoretically possible. Heck, Heidi could hold on in ND, and TN flip.
It's not likely, but it's possible.
I was just reading that Heitkamp took ND in 2012 despite being down in every single pre-election poll. She’s more down in the 2018 polls though so she’s probably a goner nonetheless.
I think the Republicans will take Missouri too, and have a good shot at Indiana. West Virginia, Florida and Montana will, I suspect, stay Democrat.
On the other side of the equation, I think the Dems will probably sneak Nevada, and may also grab Arizona.
My central assumption is R + 1 in the Senate, but I think R + 2 is nearly as likely.
I think you're broadly right, but the Ds will just hold MO and ID. I am still hoping for an upset in TN or (please!) TX but I doubt it'll happen.
That's the thing, isn't it?
Is it possible that the Dems nab both Nevada and Arizona, while only losing ND? Absolutely. And both TN and TX are theoretically possible. Heck, Heidi could hold on in ND, and TN flip.
It's not likely, but it's possible.
I was just reading that Heitkamp took ND in 2012 despite being down in every single pre-election poll. She’s more down in the 2018 polls though so she’s probably a goner nonetheless.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
She has a blog that again hasn't been posted to for sometime but it does show her activity and she seems to visit here. Just looked and it says she was here 3 hours ago.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
Yes, a nasty piece of work. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
The polling is far different to the 2016 election, where most polls herded around a point that slightly understated Trump and overstated Clinton. On last night's evidence, there is no herding this year, with polls ranging from +15 D to +1 R.
There will not be a systemic polling error this year, but some pollsters are going to have their reputations trashed in 24 hours.
The polling is far different to the 2016 election, where most polls herded around a point that slightly understated Trump and overstated Clinton. On last night's evidence, there is no herding this year, with polls ranging from +15 D to +1 R.
There will not be a systemic polling error this year, but some pollsters are going to have their reputations trashed in 24 hours.
24?
We'll start knowing in about four and a bit hours.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
Corbyn will destroy Raab, especially in any election campaign. To be honest, May is your best bet...
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
I've got him as red in the book, and can't see the big short odds case for him. If Brexit works, May is going nowhere. If it doesn't then he's down with the Govt ship. Id have the big offices of state (Hunt, Javid) ahead of him. I don't particularly rate him to be honest. Looks like another false favourite to me
He's close to both Michael Gove and David Davis, I can see them both endorsing him
If it happens then JohnO becomes the most influential PBer of all time.
I thought ‘Archer Australia’ and ‘Mortimer’ were considered the only serious contenders for the accolade.
Hey, I'm clinging to your 'most patronising' sobriquet.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
I have always found him a dull and uninspiring plodder. I cannot see much notable in terms of cabinet career, but then I saw much the same in May but the Tory boys loved her. At least until she blew the election.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
That's far too harsh. She was a bit lonely and quite poor, I think - and sometimes went over the top after a sherry or three - but clever and interesting, too.
Physician heal etc
I’m suspect she is perfectly sane IRL (hence the qualifier in parentheses) - she just presented as seriously troubled, were one to take her posts at face value!
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
I've got him as red in the book, and can't see the big short odds case for him. If Brexit works, May is going nowhere. If it doesn't then he's down with the Govt ship. Id have the big offices of state (Hunt, Javid) ahead of him. I don't particularly rate him to be honest. Looks like another false favourite to me
He's close to both Michael Gove and David Davis, I can see them both endorsing him
If it happens then JohnO becomes the most influential PBer of all time.
I thought ‘Archer Australia’ and ‘Mortimer’ were considered the only serious contenders for the accolade.
Hey, I'm clinging to your 'most patronising' sobriquet.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
I have always found him a dull and uninspiring plodder. I cannot see much notable in terms of cabinet career, but then I saw much the same in May but the Tory boys loved her. At least until she blew the election.
I don't know if I qualify as a Tory boy or not but a choice between her and the blessed mother had me not much short of despair.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
I've got him as red in the book, and can't see the big short odds case for him. If Brexit works, May is going nowhere. If it doesn't then he's down with the Govt ship. Id have the big offices of state (Hunt, Javid) ahead of him. I don't particularly rate him to be honest. Looks like another false favourite to me
He's close to both Michael Gove and David Davis, I can see them both endorsing him
If it happens then JohnO becomes the most influential PBer of all time.
I thought ‘Archer Australia’ and ‘Mortimer’ were considered the only serious contenders for the accolade.
Hey, I'm clinging to your 'most patronising' sobriquet.
Most influential, most patronising.
Rumour on the street is you can have it all*
*lyrical reference for 90s clubbers.
Mortimer can be a bit patronising for a youngster.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
He's left no impression on me at all so far. While I'm not in the Boris fan club, I feel like having gone with the boring and safe option last time the Tories will want someone with a bit more pizzazz, since some seem to be concerned about Corbyn's charisma.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
I think it depends on if the true believers make a distinction, as I do, between Brexiteers (who are more gung ho and bullish, and more committed) and Brexiters (who want to leave or now support leave, but are more flexible about how) and if Raab is still seen as being positive enough for the Brexiteers. To hear some tell it anyone who has remained in the Cabinet has ruined themselves in the eyes of the true believers, but I could see a Raab being the stronger leave option vs a Javid type.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
Javid I find genuinely interesting, a Tory who can think and reach outside the box. I would be delighted if he was the next leader. Raab, meh.
I think and hope (or possibly hope and think) that after next March the distinction between leavers and remainers will be less important. If that is the case I see Raab fading away, not least because his job will have disappeared and it is unlikely that May will feel the need to promote him. In my view people like Hunt will come to the fore in such a scenario. Who Gove backs will be very important.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
Outsider is Esther McVey. I understand the baggage of her partner but she is well in with IDS et al. She also has I think steet smarts, the opposition are having a go on UC and so far she has avoided any accusations sticking.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
That's far too harsh. She was a bit lonely and quite poor, I think - and sometimes went over the top after a sherry or three - but clever and interesting, too.
Physician heal etc
I believe back in the day a number of PBers met her in person and didn’t think anything out of the ordinary. Wasn’t she also PB poster of the year at one point?
It was only when she went big on the Trump conspiracy sites that people started to wonder what the hell was going on.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
I think and hope (or possibly hope and think) that after next March the distinction between leavers and remainers will be less important.
It's not as ridiculous as some may think it sounds. After all, when May was making hard Brexit noises and huddling up to the harder crowd there were fewer complaints about how a former remainer could not possibly deliver true Brexit. Once moved on to the next stage there will be plenty of arguments about direction (and how to avoid government collapse), but perhaps the divergent stances of some leavers and some remainers as now will expand further and make it less of an issue.
But I fear that as so many will not like the agreement to get to the next stage, and it probably needs to rely on Labour votes or highly reluctant Brexiteers all but forced into it, that the bitterness and need, for some, to retain the distinction will continue.
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
A returning officer made the best argument against electronic voting.
'Electronic voting would deny the voters the opportunity of drawing a penis against a candidate's name, or an assortment of rude words against the name of a candidate or candidates'
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
Outsider is Esther McVey. I understand the baggage of her partner but she is well in with IDS et al. She also has I think steet smarts, the opposition are having a go on UC and so far she has avoided any accusations sticking.
I just don't get her either. And, whether it is her fault or not, UC is making the Titanic look positively seaworthy after it had its unfortunate disagreement with the lump of ice. She is all too likely to end up going down with the ship (which will teach her to be friends with IDS).
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
A returning officer made the best argument against electronic voting.
'Electronic voting would deny the voters the opportunity of drawing a penis against a candidate's name, or an assortment of rude words against the name of a candidate or candidates'
You can understand why Trump likes them then......
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
He's left no impression on me at all so far. While I'm not in the Boris fan club, I feel like having gone with the boring and safe option last time the Tories will want someone with a bit more pizzazz, since some seem to be concerned about Corbyn's charisma.
There is literally no one in the front ranks (or second ranks) of the parliamentary Tory party with any genuine charisma, apart from Boris (who has surely shot his own fox), and maybe Patel (who is too strident and rightwing, tho also very milfy)
If you've spotted some charisma, let me know. It would cheer me up.
The same, of course, goes for Labour. That's why magic gramps Corbyn stands out, just by being a grizzled and grumpy old Trot in a vest, he is different. That's all it takes, in this diminished era.
I think your analysis of Corbyn points to the answer for the Tories - one of them needs to try to stand out in some way. In a leadership contest even those who are relatively experienced should get a chance to try to reinvent their image somewhat, and it's clear for instance that Javid has tried to grab some attention since his promotion in a way which will allow him to do so. Being not utterly boring, and reasonably engaging, may be sufficient to win the day in the Tory contest. Actually being able to counter the Corbyn campaigning fervour (even if matching it is not likely) will be a different issue of course.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
I don't really see what real benefits they are supposed add to our elections at least, while having a bunch more potential negatives to add to the mix.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
I find him quite seriously boring to be honest. I accept that there are worse traits in a politician and an extraordinary number of them are on show in both parties at the present time but, blimey, he makes Hammond look lively.
OK he's not the wittiest either, but he does evince intelligent competence. Which is lacking in almost everyone else.
That said he will only reach the final two as the necessary Brexiteer candidate, and I think a Remainer will probably win the final round, if only to unite the party after a traumatic Brexit (and it's gonna be traumatic, whatever).
I cannot think of any other outright Brexiteer with the the momentum. BoJo has blown it. Davis is too old. Hannan isn't even a candidate. There surely has to be a Brexiteer in the final, so Raab it is. Then I would expect someone like Javid to win.
Outsider is Esther McVey. I understand the baggage of her partner but she is well in with IDS et al. She also has I think steet smarts, the opposition are having a go on UC and so far she has avoided any accusations sticking.
Thing with McVey is (possibly because she’s been stuck on some tough jobs, possibly because she’s too blunt) she’s got a bit of a reputation as an unfeeling and uncaring person when it comes to benefits. For the same reason as the poll tax haunted Howard, I wonder if her days in DWP will haunt her forever more. (I concede that Howard did at least become leader).
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Agreed, but in the UK the rule is no more than two elections can be held on the same day. When I go to vote this evening it'll be for US Senator, US Representative, Governor & Lt. Governor (single ticket), State Senator, State Representative, Town Council-man/-woman and Superior Court Judge. That's quite a small ballot compared to some areas. So in NYS we vote by filling in a paper ballot multi-choice style, which is read by an optical reader and tallied. The paper ballots are retained to provide a paper trail. I think it's a sensible compromise.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
Was s/he ever ‘okay’? If her online persona was a genuine reflection of her real persona (highly doubtful, admittedly) she was in need of serious help.
Yes, a nasty piece of work. Good riddance to bad rubbish!
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
IF (planet-sized if) the Republicans do OK, then the Dems are going to be utterly shell-shocked going into 2020. They won't know who to pick - or how to campaign.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Agreed, but in the UK the rule is no more than two elections can be held on the same day. When I go to vote this evening it'll be for US Senator, US Representative, Governor & Lt. Governor (single ticket), State Senator, State Representative, Town Council-man/-woman and Superior Court Judge. That's quite a small ballot compared to some areas. So in NYS we vote by filling in a paper ballot multi-choice style, which is read by an optical reader and tallied. The paper ballots are retained to provide a paper trail. I think it's a sensible compromise.
That is quite a modest list. My understanding (clearly wrong) was that you had to vote for everyone from the dog catcher up.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
Happened around the same time as Twitter took down a plethora of pro Trump Russian bot accounts.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if eccentric.
The problem with Rod was not eccentricity, it was his obsession with his second favourite subject after polling...the Jews and especially holocaust. At times he made red ken look balanced and only casual observer of the history of hitler and Zionism.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
Most impressive of all is that he is close personal friend of JohnO - Which means that very shortly PB could have our very own Prime Minister in Downing St (almost) - Not to mention Lord John O Of PB!
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
IF (planet-sized if) the Republicans do OK, then the Dems are going to be utterly shell-shocked going into 2020. They won't know who to pick - or how to campaign.
The problem the Dems have is shared with a number of centre-left parties, to some degree or other, throughout the West. A fixation on social liberalism which whilst in many ways is commendable has the effect of crowding out the bread and butter issues that their traditional core used to vote on.
Dominic Raab is closing down Boris Johnson all the time in the next Prime Minister and next Conservative leader as the Brexiteer candidate of choice on the Betfair market.
If we see crossover, can we expect his price then to shorten very markedly indeed?
Raab is quietly impressive, articulate, sounds and looks the part, is not an old Etonian, he IS a grammar schoolboy, and has a refugee Jewish ancestry/backstory. He is a bit short, I think, but hey, you can't have it all.
If the Tories are looking for fresh blood, and a proper Brexiteer (but not a loon), he's got a very good chance.
VALUE.
Most impressive of all is that he is close personal friend of JohnO - Which means that very shortly PB could have our very own Prime Minister in Downing St (almost) - Not to mention Lord John O Of PB!
And a GCMG for me.
If Dave had been PM for a few more years, I'd have gotten it by next year.
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
I think both sides have been energised by different subjects and could both turn out in huge numbers negating much of the effect of each other. The Dems have to hope their voters turn out efficiently (and are able to actually vote by the looks of things) while the GOP have to hope that suburban and rural whites come out to support Trump again like they did in 2016. If only one or the other happens we could be in for a big result though.
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
IF (planet-sized if) the Republicans do OK, then the Dems are going to be utterly shell-shocked going into 2020. They won't know who to pick - or how to campaign.
This is true, but that could easily be a blessing. Trump may/will hit a big bump next year, and even a relatively unknown Dem candidate may find it his/her lucky day.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
Happened around the same time as Twitter took down a plethora of pro Trump Russian bot accounts.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
I doubt if they thought she was a Russian bit, although they may have mistaken her for a Russian bot.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Agreed, but in the UK the rule is no more than two elections can be held on the same day. When I go to vote this evening it'll be for US Senator, US Representative, Governor & Lt. Governor (single ticket), State Senator, State Representative, Town Council-man/-woman and Superior Court Judge. That's quite a small ballot compared to some areas.
Ugh - maybe there is a such a thing as too much democracy.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if eccentric.
The problem with Rod was not eccentricity, it was his obsession with his second favourite subject after polling...the Jews and especially holocaust. At times he made red ken look balanced.
When Ken said, do you know somebody else that was obsessed with Jews, more than one answer flicked through my head. I have to confess if this was my blog and I was responsible for what was published here I would feel pretty cautious.
I miss Stewart Dickson a lot. His sin of Scottish subsamples looks pretty modest after the polling fiascoes of the last few years and he had wit, something I will always forgive a lot for.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
Happened around the same time as Twitter took down a plethora of pro Trump Russian bot accounts.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if eccentric.
The problem with Rod was not eccentricity, it was his obsession with his second favourite subject after polling...the Jews and especially holocaust. At times he made red ken look balanced and only casual observer of the history of hitler and Zionism.
I know, I know, he was nutty on that subject. But he did provide real and unique insight, and his predictions were often uncannily accurate, when everyone else on here (including me) had not a clue.
Shame. I hope he is happy in Malta or wherever it was he retired. We stayed in touch on Twitter for a while, then he drifted away.
Oh on polling / modelling he was super knowledgeable/ interesting. I remember pushing him quite hard on the background to his GE model and his responses were very good / fact based rooted in serious peer reviewed academic material. His views on Jews / holocaust not so much....
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Agreed, but in the UK the rule is no more than two elections can be held on the same day. When I go to vote this evening it'll be for US Senator, US Representative, Governor & Lt. Governor (single ticket), State Senator, State Representative, Town Council-man/-woman and Superior Court Judge. That's quite a small ballot compared to some areas. So in NYS we vote by filling in a paper ballot multi-choice style, which is read by an optical reader and tallied. The paper ballots are retained to provide a paper trail. I think it's a sensible compromise.
That is quite a modest list. My understanding (clearly wrong) was that you had to vote for everyone from the dog catcher up.
Totally depends on the state. In general terms the further west you go, the longer the ballots are. My brother is also a newly-minted US citizen, but in San Francisco, and his ballot this year was four pages. NYS is quite conservative in that we don't usually have ballot propositions, only for legislature-initiated constitutional amendments and local bond issues (NYC has three amendments to the city constitution on their ballot). CA usually has a dozen or so propositions. Also in NY some municipalities, including my village (as opposed to the town of which it's part) hold their local elections in May, and our county elections are in odd-numbered years.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
I don't really see what real benefits they are supposed add to our elections ...
Are you serious? The advantages are obvious - there is no easier way known to "fix" an election..... Oh... you mean advantages for the voters?
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
As far as I can tell, she's not lurking.
Her account said that she hadn't visited the site since March 2017, so I was surprised to see a claim upthread that she was lurking five or six hours ago.
I think she was a normal person with right wing views who developed a really weird and highly unfortunate obsession with Trump. A bit like a diehard Corbynista, with extra conspiracy theory thrown in. Mind you, there were more than a few Labour posters on here last year who seemed to be going much the same way, although as Corbyn ultimately lost they didn't go quite as full-on as Plato.
What was Plato banned from twitter for? On here she went down the rabbit hole of constantly posting fake news and conspiracy sites links, but by the standards of twitter where the likes of ISIS supporters don’t get banned, her stuff must have got really dark or they thought she was a Russian bit?
Happened around the same time as Twitter took down a plethora of pro Trump Russian bot accounts.
Was Plato a bot?
A slapped Bot!!
When I think of all those Plato's Pussy jokes I made... I might have been talking with someone in a dungeon under the Kremlin working on the instructions of Mad Vlad...
Better be careful with my door handles from now on!
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
IF (planet-sized if) the Republicans do OK, then the Dems are going to be utterly shell-shocked going into 2020. They won't know who to pick - or how to campaign.
On the other hand, if they get hammered, it will mean the end of Pelosi and Warren, and that has to be positive for the Dems.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
A returning officer made the best argument against electronic voting.
'Electronic voting would deny the voters the opportunity of drawing a penis against a candidate's name, or an assortment of rude words against the name of a candidate or candidates'
On the plus side, good arguments for voting by Etch-A-Sketch
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
Agreed, but in the UK the rule is no more than two elections can be held on the same day. When I go to vote this evening it'll be for US Senator, US Representative, Governor & Lt. Governor (single ticket), State Senator, State Representative, Town Council-man/-woman and Superior Court Judge. That's quite a small ballot compared to some areas. So in NYS we vote by filling in a paper ballot multi-choice style, which is read by an optical reader and tallied. The paper ballots are retained to provide a paper trail. I think it's a sensible compromise.
Pah, when I was I living in London in 2004 I voted in the following elections on the same day with three different voting systems
1) The European Elections (using the D'Hondt method)
2) London Mayoral Election (using the supplementary vote system)
3) London Assembly Election (using the additional member system)
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
I think both sides have been energised by different subjects and could both turn out in huge numbers negating much of the effect of each other. The Dems have to hope their voters turn out efficiently (and are able to actually vote by the looks of things) while the GOP have to hope that suburban and rural whites come out to support Trump again like they did in 2016. If only one or the other happens we could be in for a big result though.
White women: they're the key. If they stick with the Republicans, then it will be a long night for the Democrats.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
That's quite disturbing.
I hope to god no one ever tries to introduce voting machines in the UK. I am a Puritan as far as technology and voting goes, I was against all those New Labour initiatives to explore alternative voting methods back when they were in power. As soon as you introduce technology to the voting process you introduce something that is far easier to manipulate.
A returning officer made the best argument against electronic voting.
'Electronic voting would deny the voters the opportunity of drawing a penis against a candidate's name, or an assortment of rude words against the name of a candidate or candidates'
On the plus side, good arguments for voting by Etch-A-Sketch
I do not wish people's creative expression stifled, and I demand I be allowed to cast my vote via the greatest form of art ever devised...interpretive dance.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
Ahem,
As they talked and discussed these things with each other, Jesus himself came up and walked along with them; [16] but they were kept from recognizing him.
@SeanT - I'd guess Dom Raab is 5' 10", perhaps slightly taller (and certainly more so than Sajid).
I promise not to abuse my position of influence. Peerage for me, probably for Mike S (but the LibDemmery is problematic), GCMG for TSE hailed-on, but others will have to pay the going rate.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
As far as I can tell, she's not lurking.
How can you tell? Do you have a Plato detector?
Well, I can see the last visit by IP address, her address was last used in 2017. And there is no evidence that she's tried to register a new account. And the last visit by her login was also in 2017.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
On a betting site, I'd have thought being PhD standard mathematician would be a pretty powerful mitigating factor!
On the midterms, I’m starting to think we’re going to see an extreme result. The turnout factor might skew what the pollsters have been saying. At this moment in time I can see a Dem tsunami (big gains in the house and maybe even a tie or better in the senate) OR a rep hold of both houses. I’m not sure I see the oft-predicted modest dem gains to get a small house majority, coupled with a GOP narrow senate hold.
I think both sides have been energised by different subjects and could both turn out in huge numbers negating much of the effect of each other. The Dems have to hope their voters turn out efficiently (and are able to actually vote by the looks of things) while the GOP have to hope that suburban and rural whites come out to support Trump again like they did in 2016. If only one or the other happens we could be in for a big result though.
White women: they're the key. If they stick with the Republicans, then it will be a long night for the Democrats.
If they stick with the Republicans under these circumstances, it's not a long night but a long decade the Dems are facing.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
On a betting site, I'd have thought being PhD standard mathematician would be a pretty powerful mitigating factor!
@SeanT - I'd guess Dom Raab is 5' 10", perhaps slightly taller (and certainly more so than Sajid).
I promise not to abuse my position of influence. Peerage for me, probably for Mike S (but the LibDemmery is problematic), GCMG for TSE hailed-on, but others will have to pay the going rate.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if eccentric.
The problem with Rod was not eccentricity, it was his obsession with his second favourite subject after polling...the Jews and especially holocaust. At times he made red ken look balanced.
When Ken said, do you know somebody else that was obsessed with Jews, more than one answer flicked through my head. I have to confess if this was my blog and I was responsible for what was published here I would feel pretty cautious.
I miss Stewart Dickson a lot. His sin of Scottish subsamples looks pretty modest after the polling fiascoes of the last few years and he had wit, something I will always forgive a lot for.
It’s remarkable that Dickson was banned for quoting Scottish subsamples, despite repeated warnings. Seems a mild transgression in this modern era of fake news.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
On a betting site, I'd have thought being PhD standard mathematician would be a pretty powerful mitigating factor!
He told someone who lost a family member in the holocaust that they didn't die and probably just deliberately hid from their family.
As an aside, does anybody know what's happened to Plato?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
You have the power - unban her and see if she is lurking....
Relatedly, it's on days like this I miss PB-ers like Rod Crosby, James Kelly and Stuart Dickson. They could all be eccentric and prickly, but they all brought some serious and clever analysis.
This is especially true of Crosby. Sometimes you have to tolerate the madness of the genius, to get the genius. He was super smart, if a bit loopy on that whole Holocaust thingy.
Crosby was a holocaust denier and a virulent anti Semite. That he was PhD standard mathematics was hardly a mitigating factor. Agree that Stuart and particularly James were excellent. And what of Tim? A PB legend, and one you yourself sparred entertainingly with.
On a betting site, I'd have thought being PhD standard mathematician would be a pretty powerful mitigating factor!
Rod was given loads of warnings, but he just couldn’t stop himself posting about the holocaust. It isn’t like he was asked not to post about current politics or polling.
Comments
Will you be rooting for Trumpton tonight Rob?
I know she's banned from here. And then she was banned from Twitter. And then she migrated to Gab. And then six months ago. *Poof* she stopped.
Does anybody know if she's OK?
https://twitter.com/Teedurful/status/1059837351608889344?s=19
Took 4 hours before people could vote.
Multiple reports of precincts with non functional machines.
Looks quite "Banana Republic"...
There will not be a systemic polling error this year, but some pollsters are going to have their reputations trashed in 24 hours.
We'll start knowing in about four and a bit hours.
Rumour on the street is you can have it all*
*lyrical reference for 90s clubbers.
I usually end up with Fox because their mathematicians are better, and bolder, than the other networks.
Which channel is recommended? I have full fat cable so have access to several American channels that outside election time just gather dust.
Senate Forecast: Dem -1(GOP majority of 4)
I think and hope (or possibly hope and think) that after next March the distinction between leavers and remainers will be less important. If that is the case I see Raab fading away, not least because his job will have disappeared and it is unlikely that May will feel the need to promote him. In my view people like Hunt will come to the fore in such a scenario. Who Gove backs will be very important.
It was only when she went big on the Trump conspiracy sites that people started to wonder what the hell was going on.
But I fear that as so many will not like the agreement to get to the next stage, and it probably needs to rely on Labour votes or highly reluctant Brexiteers all but forced into it, that the bitterness and need, for some, to retain the distinction will continue.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/06/wet-ballots-new-york-2018-elections-965331
'Electronic voting would deny the voters the opportunity of drawing a penis against a candidate's name, or an assortment of rude words against the name of a candidate or candidates'
A reminder about what a shit show Georgia's election systems are.
No paper audit trail. Centralised system with 2 year old vulnerability in the CMS running it. Passwords indexed by Google. The list goes on.
I think that even with Freeview there'll be a reasonable choice of viewing.
If Dave had been PM for a few more years, I'd have gotten it by next year.
I miss Stewart Dickson a lot. His sin of Scottish subsamples looks pretty modest after the polling fiascoes of the last few years and he had wit, something I will always forgive a lot for.
(Pauses)
Wonder is he ever made it up with his son?
I think she was a normal person with right wing views who developed a really weird and highly unfortunate obsession with Trump. A bit like a diehard Corbynista, with extra conspiracy theory thrown in. Mind you, there were more than a few Labour posters on here last year who seemed to be going much the same way, although as Corbyn ultimately lost they didn't go quite as full-on as Plato.
When I think of all those Plato's Pussy jokes I made... I might have been talking with someone in a dungeon under the Kremlin working on the instructions of Mad Vlad...
Better be careful with my door handles from now on!
1) The European Elections (using the D'Hondt method)
2) London Mayoral Election (using the supplementary vote system)
3) London Assembly Election (using the additional member system)
As they talked and discussed these things with each other, Jesus himself came up and walked along with them; [16] but they were kept from recognizing him.
I promise not to abuse my position of influence. Peerage for me, probably for Mike S (but the LibDemmery is problematic), GCMG for TSE hailed-on, but others will have to pay the going rate.