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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and

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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Dems' Senate chances just ticked up a few percent with 538. Not sure if that's driven by a specfic race or what.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    When Wales voted by 50.3% to 49.7% in favour of the Welsh Assembly, was it often described as being terribly divided? I don't think it was, or at least not for more than a few days after the result was announced.

    But it wasn't really THAT important.
    Yes it was. It established that Wales is an autonomous entity, and gave it the opportunity to run many of its own affairs, reversing significant aspects of the 1536 act of union imposed by Henry VIII. The loss of that vote would have been psychologically disastrous for the concept of Wales as a nation.

    I was living in Cardiff at the time, and remember waking up at 0350 the following morning to find that NO was in the lead, only for the final votes from Carmarthen to come in a few minutes later to give YES the victory.
    The fact that Plaid polls consistently worse than the SNP and Sinn Fein and even trails the Tories in Wales on current Welsh Assembly polling for 2021 and the fact Wales voted Leave like England but unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted Remain shows claims for Welsh nationhood are far less pronounced than in Scotland or Ireland
    Thanks for your opinion, as a resident of Essex.

    My opinion is that Wales has suffered the same fate as New Caledonia (where the French settlers ensured the independence referendum a few days ago was lost).

    Flooding a territory with people from the ruling country to ensure it doesn't go independent. Good job it could never happen here.
    I studied for a year at Aberystwyth and have lived in Wales, there is a stronger cultural Welsh identity there and in North Wales where more speak Welsh and where Plaid's heartlands are but the majority of Welsh people live in South Wales and do not speak Welsh at all
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    Floater said:

    It was interesting that 5 live did a story this morning that Brittany ferries has seen their post March 19 bookings collapse due to the uncertainty. The company was founded by Brittany farmers to attract UK holidaymakers and they have three new ferries on order. When asked their spokesperson said they, and all the channel ports, are directing anger towards their own government and that their government had to stop a no deal and agree a sensible deal with the UK

    It is not all one way

    No it isn't.

    I also note this from earlier today

    https://order-order.com/2018/11/05/uk-second-best-world-fdi/


    Shocked I tell you

    Or that in the recently published 'Doing Business 2018' only 3 EU countries made the top 10 and only one of them a large EU country.....

    http://www.doingbusiness.org/content/dam/doingBusiness/media/Annual-Reports/English/DB2018-Full-Report.pdf

    Could't possibly be, well, you know......
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    When Wales voted by 50.3% to 49.7% in favour of the Welsh Assembly, was it often described as being terribly divided? I don't think it was, or at least not for more than a few days after the result was announced.

    But it wasn't really THAT important.
    Yes it was. It established that Wales is an autonomous entity, and gave it the opportunity to run many of its own affairs, reversing significant aspects of the 1536 act of union imposed by Henry VIII. The loss of that vote would have been psychologically disastrous for the concept of Wales as a nation.

    I was living in Cardiff at the time, and remember waking up at 0350 the following morning to find that NO was in the lead, only for the final votes from Carmarthen to come in a few minutes later to give YES the victory.
    The fact that Plaid polls consistently worse than the SNP and Sinn Fein and even trails the Tories in Wales on current Welsh Assembly polling for 2021 and the fact Wales voted Leave like England but unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted Remain shows claims for Welsh nationhood are far less pronounced than in Scotland or Ireland
    Alex Salmond back in the 1980s might have put his finger on it when suggesting that Scottish independence was an economic movement whereas Welsh was cultural.
    Yes, more speak Welsh than Gaelic and the SNP heartland is now the old Labour central belt and Glasgow while the Old Labour South Wales and Valleys are still solid Labour
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    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again O/t England 113-5. Good morning for Sri Lanka, although, of course, we haven’t bowled yet.

    The fact Keaton Jennings was the highest scorer doesn't exactly suggest the bowling was terribly incisive.
    Cricinfo suggests that while the bowling wasn’t that good, England’s aggression created opportunities for the bowlers.

    Thought you’d be back at work?
    I am. But even my school doesn't demand we go in at 7 in the morning. 7.30 does them fine.
    I know. Several teachers and ex-teachers in my family and the idea of 8.30-4.30 is a gross misunderstanding.
    Hmm. I'm sure the local schoolchildren are starting earlier and earlier. Some of them seem to be getting in for 7 or 7.30. Whether that's for lessons or to travel to away matches, it has never seemed appropriate to ask. It's a bloody nuisance when you can't get the bus to the station because it is full of children going to school from 7 to 9.
    I suspect these are ones whose parents have chosen a school which is optimal for exam results, less so for transport*. Most schools certainly want them in by 8.40 nowadays.. so if you have a couple of 20 minute bus journeys with a wait in between, it easily racks up.

    (*Or ended up with one they didn't choose)
    That is another big change. Children used to walk to the nearest school, but first schools were amalgamated, so even the nearest school might be a bus ride away, and now parental choice means that children are sent all over the place. The net result is the same, I expect, in that each school gets the same number of pupils, so it all seems a bit inefficient.
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    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558
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    HYUFD said:

    Just on the US elections, interesting poll out of Michigan for the US Senate where the Republican candidate is now only 3 points behind the Democrat. That might be considered rogue just given the other polls (and one had Stabenow up 9%) but two factors might make it interesting,

    1. The Republican candidate, John James, is African-American while his opponent is white. This is just a hunch, mainly because my wife is African-American, but I think this may cause problems for the Democrats in getting the vote out in places like Detroit. My experience is that there is a strongly held view that African-Americans should stick together. I'm not saying that they will vote for James but they may be less willing to go out and vote for Stabenow. Both Obama and Eric Holder have campaigned in Michigan which may suggest the Democrats may be worried about the same thing.

    2. James has form from the Republican primary of coming from seemingly way behind to surging at the end and coming through. This could be a re-run.

    And what about closet racist whites who may not vote for James outside of Detroit in the suburbs and rural areas?
    My guess is their support for Trump will, well, trump those feelings...
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again O/t England 113-5. Good morning for Sri Lanka, although, of course, we haven’t bowled yet.

    The fact Keaton Jennings was the highest scorer doesn't exactly suggest the bowling was terribly incisive.
    Cricinfo suggests that while the bowling wasn’t that good, England’s aggression created opportunities for the bowlers.

    Thought you’d be back at work?
    I am. But even my school doesn't demand we go in at 7 in the morning. 7.30 does them fine.
    I know. Several teachers and ex-teachers in my family and the idea of 8.30-4.30 is a gross misunderstanding.
    Hmm. I'm sure the local schoolchildren are starting earlier and earlier. Some of them seem to be getting in for 7 or 7.30. Whether that's for lessons or to travel to away matches, it has never seemed appropriate to ask. It's a bloody nuisance when you can't get the bus to the station because it is full of children going to school from 7 to 9.
    I suspect these are ones whose parents have chosen a school which is optimal for exam results, less so for transport*. Most schools certainly want them in by 8.40 nowadays.. so if you have a couple of 20 minute bus journeys with a wait in between, it easily racks up.

    (*Or ended up with one they didn't choose)
    That is another big change. Children used to walk to the nearest school, but first schools were amalgamated, so even the nearest school might be a bus ride away, and now parental choice means that children are sent all over the place. The net result is the same, I expect, in that each school gets the same number of pupils, so it all seems a bit inefficient.
    Not quite - the nearest crap local secondary only gets the children whose parents don't care or were unable to win an appeal to another school. A large number of them live in new estates on the edge of town where they are out of the catchment area for the other schools (anyone nearer this school is in the catchment area of 2 the better schools and most go to one of those).

    The end result is that the school has an intake of 80 a year rather than the 150 its allowed to take.
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    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558

    The US is a very odd country, to say the least. Founded with the law and democracy as its underpinning and yet full of these oddities that no western european country would allow.
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    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.
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    Dems' Senate chances just ticked up a few percent with 538. Not sure if that's driven by a specfic race or what.

    In the Senate as their are fewer races and so randomness could have more of an effect in delivering a shock outcome.

    In the House forecast the 538 forecast give the Dems a 7 in 8 chance, which is the strongest position they have been in to date.

    The polling over the past few days seems overall to have been holding up or even improving for Democrats. 538 (including the Rasmussen poll) put the overall Democratic lead in the generic ballot at 8.6%, which is getting close to the peak lead over the past few months.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2018

    I am genuinely surprised that people have not heard of the Marchioness disaster. My memory of it is very clear indeed and I remember it getting huge amounts of coverage - not least because Lawrence Dallaglio's sister was on board.

    Are you sure (as in I know his sister was on board but I didn't think he featured at all in the coverage)? Lawrence Dallaglio hadn't even made his first appearance for Wasps yet and was 6 years away from making his international debut.
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    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558

    This was posted a thread or two back, on Kemp's (the same chap) and Georgia's voter suppression.
    https://www.salon.com/2018/10/28/election-expert-greg-palast-brian-kemps-postcard-trick-wrongly-purged-340000-georgia-voters/
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,337

    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    I guess my view is that this is not a matter for the police, but that once you decide to air your views in public the public has every right to know who you are.

    ^This. They deserve widespread public opprobrium and to have people shun them in the pub for a week or two. Probably not a conviction.

    My guess is they'll get a caution (recorded or otherwise). I suggest "arrested on suspicion of a public order offence" is cop-speak for "remember what Sara Thornton was saying the other day about shit we haven't got time for?"
    They've handed themselves in and are being charged with a public order offence - presumably by distributing the offensive video. This is roughly an electronic equivalent to being drunk and disorderly and seems about right in scale, though if being offensive online is a public order offense it might have unintended consequences.
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    Alistair said:

    I am genuinely surprised that people have not heard of the Marchioness disaster. My memory of it is very clear indeed and I remember it getting huge amounts of coverage - not least because Lawrence Dallaglio's sister was on board.

    Are you sure (as in I know his sister was on board but I didn't think he featured at all in the coverage)? Lawrence Dallaglio hadn't even made his first appearance for Wasps yet and was 6 years away from making his international debut.

    Over the years I meant.

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    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.

    Yep, I know. And once we do, we put it in the public domain.


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    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again O/t England 113-5. Good morning for Sri Lanka, although, of course, we haven’t bowled yet.

    The fact Keaton Jennings was the highest scorer doesn't exactly suggest the bowling was terribly incisive.
    Cricinfo suggests that while the bowling wasn’t that good, England’s aggression created opportunities for the bowlers.

    Thought you’d be back at work?
    I am. But even my school doesn't demand we go in at 7 in the morning. 7.30 does them fine.
    I know. Several teachers and ex-teachers in my family and the idea of 8.30-4.30 is a gross misunderstanding.
    Hmm. I'm sure the local schoolchildren are starting earlier and earlier. Some of them seem to be getting in for 7 or 7.30. Whether that's for lessons or to travel to away matches, it has never seemed appropriate to ask. It's a bloody nuisance when you can't get the bus to the station because it is full of children going to school from 7 to 9.
    I suspect these are ones whose parents have chosen a school which is optimal for exam results, less so for transport*. Most schools certainly want them in by 8.40 nowadays.. so if you have a couple of 20 minute bus journeys with a wait in between, it easily racks up.

    (*Or ended up with one they didn't choose)
    That is another big change. Children used to walk to the nearest school, but first schools were amalgamated, so even the nearest school might be a bus ride away, and now parental choice means that children are sent all over the place. The net result is the same, I expect, in that each school gets the same number of pupils, so it all seems a bit inefficient.
    Not quite - the nearest crap local secondary only gets the children whose parents don't care or were unable to win an appeal to another school. A large number of them live in new estates on the edge of town where they are out of the catchment area for the other schools (anyone nearer this school is in the catchment area of 2 the better schools and most go to one of those).

    The end result is that the school has an intake of 80 a year rather than the 150 its allowed to take.
    That is the theory but since there is a shortage of school places in most parts, I suspect on aggregate the results are much the same. Anecdote: a friend managed to get his three boys into three different secondary schools but when asked if, with hindsight, he'd have switched them round, he said no.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.

    Yep, I know. And once we do, we put it in the public domain.


    Society is heading in a very dangerous direction if we make everything in our lives public for the world to see IMO.
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    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Again O/t England 113-5. Good morning for Sri Lanka, although, of course, we haven’t bowled yet.

    The fact Keaton Jennings was the highest scorer doesn't exactly suggest the bowling was terribly incisive.
    Cricinfo suggests that while the bowling wasn’t that good, England’s aggression created opportunities for the bowlers.

    Thought you’d be back at work?
    I am. But even my school doesn't demand we go in at 7 in the morning. 7.30 does them fine.
    I know. Several teachers and ex-teachers in my family and the idea of 8.30-4.30 is a gross misunderstanding.
    Hmm. 7 to 9.
    I suspect these are ones whose parents have chosen a school which is optimal for exam results, less so for transport*. Most schools certainly want them in by 8.40 nowadays.. so if you have a couple of 20 minute bus journeys with a wait in between, it easily racks up.

    (*Or ended up with one they didn't choose)
    That is another big change. Children used to walk to the nearest school, but first schools were amalgamated, so even the nearest school might be a bus ride away, and now parental choice means that children are sent all over the place. The net result is the same, I expect, in that each school gets the same number of pupils, so it all seems a bit inefficient.
    Not quite - the nearest crap local secondary only gets the children whose parents don't care or were unable to win an appeal to another school. A large number of them live in new estates on the edge of town where they are out of the catchment area for the other schools (anyone nearer this school is in the catchment area of 2 the better schools and most go to one of those).

    The end result is that the school has an intake of 80 a year rather than the 150 its allowed to take.

    That is not entirely accurate in all cases. In Southam, where I used to live, there is one secondary school. The nearest ones besides that are in Leamington, about 10 miles away. When my kids were going to school, there were buses that went to the schools in Leamington at no charge. Then charges were introduced. This effectively meant that most parents lost their ability to choose. Luckily, the school in Southam is very good, but that may not apply elsewhere where the same thing has happened.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    The channel 4 prog and accompanying poll gives us Remoaners quite a bit of hope. The mood seemed to have changed. The studio Leavers had lost their mojos and I include Farage. He flapped like a beached fish but his heart wasn't in it.

    The two MPs didn't know what to say when the poll was announced. They were fighting every politicians instinct to follow the voters. Defending a position where we'd be worse off AND seeing the public swing against them in ever increasing numbers left them squirming

    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1059646241066401792
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558

    David Forum of course perfectly happy when Jeb Bush oversaw the election in Florida when W won. An election marred by even worse voter purges than what Kemp is doing with people removed from the voting roll simply for having the same name as a convicted felon.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.
    The people that do that in portrait style, about anything, should be first against the wall. God I hate those people.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558

    The US is a very odd country, to say the least. Founded with the law and democracy as its underpinning and yet full of these oddities that no western european country would allow.
    Although it wasn't that long ago that the Law Lords gave decisions while sitting in the House of Lords which was party responsible for passing the laws in the first place.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Roger said:


    I agree. The courts would clog up. They'd have to prosecute 17,000,000 people

    ... and Remainers wonder why they lost!

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    Did Channel 4 including Aaron Bank's newly minted remain vote?
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited November 2018
    This Grenfell arrest is extraordinary. Our public authorities now seem more concerned with fighting ugly or foolish speech/expression than actual crime.

    The sounding off of our political classes, including the Prime Minister, is a bizarre spectacle. Do we really need politicians to tell us that what these people have done is appalling? They are elected to pass laws and govern, not act as a secular priesthood.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.
    That "we" only covers stupid people.....
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    Pulpstar said:

    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    We video and post everything nowadays, Grandpa.
    The people that do that in portrait style, about anything, should be first against the wall. God I hate those people.
    +1
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    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    I agree. The courts would clog up. They'd have to prosecute 17,000,000 people

    ... and Remainers wonder why they lost!

    Actually, no they don't.

    And that's their problem.

    Its rather lonely up there on the moral high ground.
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561



    The US is a very odd country, to say the least. Founded with the law and democracy as its underpinning and yet full of these oddities that no western european country would allow.

    Western European countries have plenty of oddities of their own. There is no such thing as a "normal" country.

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,625

    Not sure if this was posted, but it's a shade Blackadder:
    https://twitter.com/BBCJonSopel/status/1059189160727191558

    This was posted a thread or two back, on Kemp's (the same chap) and Georgia's voter suppression.
    https://www.salon.com/2018/10/28/election-expert-greg-palast-brian-kemps-postcard-trick-wrongly-purged-340000-georgia-voters/
    To add insult to injury, he has used his position as senior election official to accuse (without evidence) the Democrats of trying to fix voting machines...

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    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    I agree. The courts would clog up. They'd have to prosecute 17,000,000 people

    ... and Remainers wonder why they lost!

    Actually, no they don't.

    And that's their problem.

    Its rather lonely up there on the moral high ground.
    Bit of a generalisation. I certainly wonder and think about why we lost. It certainly wasn't just down to a big red bus and some twaddle on social media.
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    Fishing said:

    Roger said:


    I agree. The courts would clog up. They'd have to prosecute 17,000,000 people

    ... and Remainers wonder why they lost!

    Actually, no they don't.

    And that's their problem.

    Its rather lonely up there on the moral high ground.
    Bit of a generalisation. I certainly wonder and think about why we lost. It certainly wasn't just down to a big red bus and some twaddle on social media.
    Fair comment - it should more properly be directed at Remoaners, Patron Saint Lord Adonis of never elected beyond a city council...
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    New thread btw.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    rkrkrk said:


    I'm sure you're right about it being more difficult than just cancelling Brexit.

    On the Eurozone, Denmark has an opt-out (and obviously so did we), so there is still a clear precedent. Also lots of other countries are supposed to join, but aren't in any rush - like Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic. Anyone looking to bounce the UK into the Euro would run up against plenty of opposition from other countries not keen to join.

    Right, I mean it's not like most of the EU would want the British to join the Euro particularly - they have enough problems already - but anything that looks like special treatment may become the target of some populist gobshite somewhere.
    Britain may not want to join the euro but, if it did, it would give it, given our large financial sector, a huge amount of effective power within the EU. Probably more than any other single act, it would shift economic power to London in a way that nothing else would, regardless of what politicians across the EU may want.
    TOPPING said:

    Yes something not quite right about the arrests over the Grenfell effigy.

    Very upsetting but really a hate crime?

    Curious to understand what public order offence may have been committed. Hate crime is a meaningless term, in legal terms. But if no possible crime has been committed then we should leave them alone. And the individuals should not accept a caution without legal advice unless there is evidence of commission of a crime. Cautions have implications; they are not just a telling off.

    Grotesque bad taste is one thing - to be dealt with by social disapproval. But it is not - and never should be - the police’s job to determine the boundaries of good taste. Not in a free society anyway.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    I think this is quite significant.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/nov/06/brexit-cabinet-meeting-labour-wont-vote-for-deal-that-would-keep-uk-in-customs-union-temporarily-mcdonnell-says-politics-live

    Labour are committed to long term membership of the Customs Union. This doesn't guarantee that the EU will agree to it, but at least we won't be simply throwing away something of huge benefit to our economy. Let's hope the Conservatives come around to the same position.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    edited November 2018

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    When Wales voted by 50.3% to 49.7% in favour of the Welsh Assembly, was it often described as being terribly divided? I don't think it was, or at least not for more than a few days after the result was announced.

    But it wasn't really THAT important.
    Yes it was. It established that Wales is an autonomous entity, and gave it the opportunity to run many of its own affairs, reversing significant aspects of the 1536 act of union imposed by Henry VIII. The loss of that vote would have been psychologically disastrous for the concept of Wales as a nation.

    I was living in Cardiff at the time, and remember waking up at 0350 the following morning to find that NO was in the lead, only for the final votes from Carmarthen to come in a few minutes later to give YES the victory.
    The fact that Plaid polls consistently worse than the SNP and Sinn Fein and even trails the Tories in Wales on current Welsh Assembly polling for 2021 and the fact Wales voted Leave like England but unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted Remain shows claims for Welsh nationhood are far less pronounced than in Scotland or Ireland
    Thanks for your opinion, as a resident of Essex.

    My opinion is that Wales has suffered the same fate as New Caledonia (where the French settlers ensured the independence referendum a few days ago was lost).

    Flooding a territory with people from the ruling country to ensure it doesn't go independent. Good job it could never happen here.
    Nothing to do with "settlers" The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language dominating everything. It was the reason that even the limited devolution vote was so close.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Alistair said:

    I am genuinely surprised that people have not heard of the Marchioness disaster. My memory of it is very clear indeed and I remember it getting huge amounts of coverage - not least because Lawrence Dallaglio's sister was on board.

    Are you sure (as in I know his sister was on board but I didn't think he featured at all in the coverage)? Lawrence Dallaglio hadn't even made his first appearance for Wasps yet and was 6 years away from making his international debut.

    Over the years I meant.

    I remember the Marchioness. The coroner ordered the hands of the bodies to be cut off for some identification reason, without the consent of the relatives, which caused them distress. And there was an unpleasant air of from some of “Who cares? They’re yuppies.” which was in quite as much bad taste as this Grenfell video. They were young Londoners having a great night out who died a horrible death in the dark. It was quite a thing at one point to have parties on boats. Our office had its summer party on one, one year. It happened to people like me, with families and friends and their whole lives in front of them
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855
    BDBYG :)
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I have to confess the betting event of interest for me on Tuesday isn't in America but several hours earlier in Australia, the Melbourne Cup. I've had a small bet on CROSS COUNTER who has no weight but it's as always a very open race.

    While you halfwits are scratching round for crumbs from the US midterms, I've drawn on my 10/1 winner and will enjoy the day.
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    New thread

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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    OllyT said:



    The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language will dominate everything.

    You mean like Irish independence resulted in Irish speakers dominating everything ?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,855
    edited November 2018
    Morning all :)

    BDBYG

    From Saturday November 3rd.
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I have to confess the betting event of interest for me on Tuesday isn't in America but several hours earlier in Australia, the Melbourne Cup. I've had a small bet on CROSS COUNTER who has no weight but it's as always a very open race.

    While you are scratching round for crumbs from the US midterms, I've drawn on my 10/1 winner and will enjoy the day.

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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    OllyT said:



    The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language will dominate everything.

    You mean like Irish independence resulted in Irish speakers dominating everything ?
    Not sure it matters what actually happens but it does matter what people think will happen and I know many non-Welsh speakers who specifically voted no on devolution because of the fear of the Welsh language issue.

    The attitude of Irish speakers in the republic is very different to the welsh speakers I encounter. I have no issue with keeping the language alive for those that want it but I also have an issue with living in a country dominated by a language that only 20% understand.
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    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    daodao said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndyJS said:

    When Wales voted by 50.3% to 49.7% in favour of the Welsh Assembly, was it often described as being terribly divided? I don't think it was, or at least not for more than a few days after the result was announced.

    But it wasn't really THAT important.
    Yes it was. It established that Wales is an autonomous entity, and gave it the opportunity to run many of its own affairs, reversing significant aspects of the 1536 act of union imposed by Henry VIII. The loss of that vote would have been psychologically disastrous for the concept of Wales as a nation.

    I was living in Cardiff at the time, and remember waking up at 0350 the following morning to find that NO was in the lead, only for the final votes from Carmarthen to come in a few minutes later to give YES the victory.
    The fact that Plaid polls consistently worse than the SNP and Sinn Fein and even trails the Tories in Wales on current Welsh Assembly polling for 2021 and the fact Wales voted Leave like England but unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland which voted Remain shows claims for Welsh nationhood are far less pronounced than in Scotland or Ireland
    Thanks for your opinion, as a resident of Essex.

    My opinion is that Wales has suffered the same fate as New Caledonia (where the French settlers ensured the independence referendum a few days ago was lost).

    Flooding a territory with people from the ruling country to ensure it doesn't go independent. Good job it could never happen here.
    Nothing to do with "settlers" The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language dominating everything. It was the reason that even the limited devolution vote was so close.
    Is it the 20 per cent of Welsh speakers, or the Cardiff crachach? I know plenty of people in the north who are as Welsh as they come (including language enthusiasts) but would sooner be in Liverpool and Manchester's orbit than be run by Cardiff.
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    The Grenfell thing - not sure what I think. However, I suspect the issue here is not that they actually did it, but that it was videoed and then widely distributed. If it was just a joke among friends, why video it and post it?

    I guess my view is that this is not a matter for the police, but that once you decide to air your views in public the public has every right to know who you are.

    ^This. They deserve widespread public opprobrium and to have people shun them in the pub for a week or two. Probably not a conviction.

    My guess is they'll get a caution (recorded or otherwise). I suggest "arrested on suspicion of a public order offence" is cop-speak for "remember what Sara Thornton was saying the other day about shit we haven't got time for?"
    They've handed themselves in and are being charged with a public order offence - presumably by distributing the offensive video. This is roughly an electronic equivalent to being drunk and disorderly and seems about right in scale, though if being offensive online is a public order offense it might have unintended consequences.
    That's kinda my point - they haven't even been charged as yet. Suspect the arrests are a holding position till it dies down a bit.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:



    The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language will dominate everything.

    You mean like Irish independence resulted in Irish speakers dominating everything ?
    Not sure it matters what actually happens but it does matter what people think will happen and I know many non-Welsh speakers who specifically voted no on devolution because of the fear of the Welsh language issue.

    The attitude of Irish speakers in the republic is very different to the welsh speakers I encounter. I have no issue with keeping the language alive for those that want it but I also have an issue with living in a country dominated by a language that only 20% understand.
    .... dominated .....

    You think Welsh will be "dominated" by English. Really ...

    The Welsh language is on life support and English is the single most successful language in the world ....
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:



    The welsh language is the reason that the Welsh will never vote for independence because we know (being Welsh myself) that that would result in the 20% that speak the language will dominate everything.

    You mean like Irish independence resulted in Irish speakers dominating everything ?
    Not sure it matters what actually happens but it does matter what people think will happen and I know many non-Welsh speakers who specifically voted no on devolution because of the fear of the Welsh language issue.

    The attitude of Irish speakers in the republic is very different to the welsh speakers I encounter. I have no issue with keeping the language alive for those that want it but I also have an issue with living in a country dominated by a language that only 20% understand.
    .... dominated .....

    You think Welsh will be "dominated" by English. Really ...

    The Welsh language is on life support and English is the single most successful language in the world ....
    By dominated I meant taking all the best public sector jobs, the best media jobs by excluding the 80% that don't speak Welsh. Please don't tell me we don't see signs of that as it is.
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