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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One the eve of the Midterms the final generic polls are in and one has the Republicans in the lead

Within a few hours Americans start voting in probably the most crucial midterm elections that we’ve seen in modern times. Quite simply these take place after 2 years of Mr Trump’s occupancy of the White House which has had a extraordinary impact on the way government works and how Americans see themselves.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    Oh, goody, first, like the Ds?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    anyone who trusts polls should bet VERY CAREFULLY
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The short SNL video is really worth watching.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Just catching up with today's threads. So sorry to hear your news @Barnesian, my condolences.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    FPT
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What’s all this about a racist campaign ad that all the networks won’t play in the US?

    This one.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/05/trump-anti-immigration-ad-pulled-fox-news-nbc-facebook

    This is the actual video

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1057728445386539008
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1059552375004954626?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    You know Trump's gone way too far when even Fox are refusing to air his ads.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    You know Trump's gone way too far when even Fox are refusing to air his ads.

    According to CNN the central claim that it was the democrats that let him in / let him stay is utterly false. He was deported several times over the course of many years under Clinton and bush and also from area under control of trump fav sheriff joe.

    Next trump will be retweeting that Grenfell bonfire video....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    The key difference with Rasmussen is it has the Democrats much lower at 46% whereas the poll average has the Democrats around 50%. The 46% for the GOP with Rasmussen is the same share Trump got in 2016.


    The GOP will be encouraged that Rasmussen got the 2016 result in the popular vote correct ie Hillary +2%. However the Democrats will be comforted by the fact the other pollsters were not far off either, ABC had Hillary up 3%, NBC Hillary up 5%, Fox Hillary up 4%, YouGov Hillary up 4% and IBID/TIPP had Hillary only up 1% ie less than she led by when the votes were in, IBID TIPP has the Democrats ahead by 9% in the generic ballot for the midterms.


    In the 2010 midterms Rasmussen also greatly overestimated the GOP lead, the final Rasmussen poll had the GOP 12% ahead and the GOP ended up 6.8% ahead

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2010_generic_congressional_vote-2171.html#polls
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    A man who was accused of the murders of four soldiers in the 1982 IRA Hyde Park bombings has been arrested. John Downey has been arrested on suspicion of the murder of two other soldiers in Northern Ireland in 1972.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tim_B said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tim_B said:

    steve_garner said:

    Interesting that the Met appear to think they have the resources to investigate a model being burned on bonfire night when they are forever complaining that they don't have enough resources to investigate burglary and worse. Their sense of priority says a lot.

    I was listening to the Today Program on R4 today. They were interviewing government types about crime. No, the reduction of police on the streets has not affected crime. No, the emphasis on gender and hate crimes has not affected it either. After hearing more about task forces and new policy initiatives than I have in years, I was just left glad that I don't live there. The knife crime rate in London is awful. The mayor says quite happily that it'll take 10 years to get under control.
    Crime in London is back to 2010, well below peak.

    It's all relative, I guess.
    And London is a hell of a lot safer than most American cities.
    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/london-murder-rate-higher-new-york-city-first-time-surging-knife-gun-crime/
    One month's figures. Talk about torturing the data to make a news story. In June this year the New York Murder rate was 4 times higher than London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21

    Survation also has England voting Remain with 53% of English voters voting Remain and 47% voting Leave
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What’s all this about a racist campaign ad that all the networks won’t play in the US?

    This one.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/05/trump-anti-immigration-ad-pulled-fox-news-nbc-facebook

    This is the actual video

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1057728445386539008
    As has been pointed out he was release by Sheriff Joe Arpaio and came back into the country under George W Bush.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    How do you work that out? A Leave win would be an endorsement of the deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    By then the single market would probably be the best they could hope for to add to May's customs union membership, if we do not vote to abandon Brexit and stay in the EU before Brexit day at the end of next March the EU may require we join the Euro and Schengen if we want to rejoin after Brexit is completed and I doubt a majority of UK voters would vote to join the Eurozone and Schengen even if they backed rejoining the EU as we were before or the single market
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    The thing is, as john curtice said, that the large portion of the swing is because of people who didn't vote. They didn't vote before why would they again in the future?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Does anyone have any explanation WHY Rasmussen is such an outlier? Are there any methodological reasons?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Interesting that 54% Remain 46% Leave is what Survation was showing one month out from the last referendum on 24th May 2016;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/eu-referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    The North East, Yorkshire, the Midlands and East would still vote Leave again on this poll though even if the UK as a whole would now vote Remain
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that 54% Remain 46% Leave is what Survation was showing one month out from the last referendum on 24th May 2016;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/eu-referendum

    remain was in lead before 2016 referendum in several polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    dixiedean said:

    Does anyone have any explanation WHY Rasmussen is such an outlier? Are there any methodological reasons?

    Questioning and likely voter model, it leans GOP, in 2012 it had Romney beating Obama in its final poll and Scott Rasmussen was a consultant for George W Bush

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    The thing is, as john curtice said, that the large portion of the swing is because of people who didn't vote. They didn't vote before why would they again in the future?
    I could believe there is a degree of regret from youngsters who sat on their arse in the Referendum....
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    As Mike says, that Saturday Night Live tape is great.

    Trumpton’s latest video is, as you’d expect, loathsome.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    Does anyone have any explanation WHY Rasmussen is such an outlier? Are there any methodological reasons?

    They do have a history of leaning quite a bit more pro-GOP than the other pollsters. Sometimes they've been right and the others wrong, sometimes vice versa.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    HYUFD said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    The North East, Yorkshire, the Midlands and East would still vote Leave again on this poll though even if the UK as a whole would now vote Remain
    NE is 50-50 now I think, England as a whole flips (as does UK as you say)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dixiedean said:

    Does anyone have any explanation WHY Rasmussen is such an outlier? Are there any methodological reasons?

    They seem to have a weighting model that favours Republicans.

    In 2010 their final poll on the generic ballot was GOP +12, the national result was +7.

    JackW of this parish noted a tenancy for their presidential poll prior to 2016 to be rather GOP happy up until the week of the election where upon they suddenly swu g I to concensus with everyone else's polls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    Also very risky for the Establishment to deny a #Peoplesvote. They will be generating an electoral wasteland for themselves amongst a majority of the population.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    On the US let’s see what the results are.

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Interesting news re East Sussex Council, as @Stodge has often predicted.

    Re Iran, I’m no fan of its politics, though I would love to visit the country. But destabilising it by making its economy collapse, as Mike Pompey, has said..... well is that entirely wise? Have we learnt nothing from the destabilisation of Iraq and Syria?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Full poll results:
    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1059560166360838145?s=21


    No where near a big enough lead for Remain for the establishment to risk a losers referendum (which if Leave won again would probably lead to a no deal Brexit)

    Playing it long through Theresa's vassal state and having another go in 5-10 years is a better prospect for Remainers.
    Also very risky for the Establishment to deny a #Peoplesvote. They will be generating an electoral wasteland for themselves amongst a majority of the population.
    Those who want a Peoplesvote are mainly Labour and LD Remainers, those who don't are mainly Tory Leavers, it does not really change the map much. If the Tories backed a peoples vote they would also risk Tory Leavers moving to UKIP, May can get away with a Deal with some leakage to UKIP but not trying to reverse Brexit which could see an avalanche to UKIP.


    It is Corbyn, not May, most at risk from failing to back a peoples vote if Labour Remainers move to the LDs as Cable now does back a second EU referendum
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Does anyone have any explanation WHY Rasmussen is such an outlier? Are there any methodological reasons?

    Questioning and likely voter model, it leans GOP, in 2012 it had Romney beating Obama in its final poll and Scott Rasmussen was a consultant for George W Bush

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
    Cheers. Seems to imply they filter turnout quite severely. Which may make them shaky if the poll is big?
    I don't know enough to be betting on individual races, but suspect there may be some surprises for each side, like here with Canterbury and Mansfield.
    Trump has changed the electoral map, just as Brexit and Corbyn did to a degree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,355
    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Rasmussen and Zogby got the Obama/Romney contest so hideously wrong that they disappeared for a while. Zogby never returned but Ras seems to be doing a fair bit of business again. There is obviously something inherently pro-GOP about their results. It may not be deliberate but Nate Silver's 538 Site rates them a very modest C for reliability.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,898
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1059552375004954626?s=21

    Wot? No Northern Ireland?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    How many of the 46% in this poll support what we know of what will be in the Withdrawal Agreement? These polling numbers are flattered by the fact that people are still able to convince themselves that Leave means something that it doesn't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Have to say, I'm actually unbothered about the midterms. Haven't bet on it at all either which probably contributes to my lack of care. In the non-betting world I'm not sure it makes very much if a difference either, Trump seems to have sidestepped the House for his sanctions and national security tariffs.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    I agree - if Parliament votes it down. But unless the government then offers a second referendum we head to a no deal exit. I don’t see how, unless the government changes its mind on a second vote, we get one.

    I would welcome one but what the result will be will depend on the question: Deal vs No Deal / Deal vs Remain / No Deal vs Remain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    williamglenn said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    How many of the 46% in this poll support what we know of what will be in the Withdrawal Agreement? These polling numbers are flattered by the fact that people are still able to convince themselves that Leave means something that it doesn't.
    So they don't know their own minds but you do.

    In any case, how many of the 100% know what will be in it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    williamglenn said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    How many of the 46% in this poll support what we know of what will be in the Withdrawal Agreement? These polling numbers are flattered by the fact that people are still able to convince themselves that Leave means something that it doesn't.
    Given YouGov has 45% backing No Deal they are almost all those who want to leave the single market and customs union and 'chuck Chequers' even if that means WTO terms

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, I'm actually unbothered about the midterms. Haven't bet on it at all either which probably contributes to my lack of care. In the non-betting world I'm not sure it makes very much if a difference either, Trump seems to have sidestepped the House for his sanctions and national security tariffs.

    It will restrain Trump's domestic policy if the Democrats take the House, less so his foreign policy as the House controls the Budget but Senate approval is needed for Treaties
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    This is the thinking that has seen Remainers deliberately try to sabotage the UK's side in negotiations. They even support the EU when the EU wants to effectively annex British territory.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited November 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, I'm actually unbothered about the midterms. Haven't bet on it at all either which probably contributes to my lack of care. In the non-betting world I'm not sure it makes very much if a difference either, Trump seems to have sidestepped the House for his sanctions and national security tariffs.

    I have only a few small bets on this one. It is hard to read the chicken entrails, and in particular I cannot see much value.

    I think the consensus is likely to be wrong, just not sure which direction. The closest to value appears to be on the Blue wave being bigger than expected.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/1059552375004954626?s=21

    Wot? No Northern Ireland?
    NI has swung slightly to Remain, although the swing there is not as pronounced as in the very pro-Leave regions.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Cyclefree said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    I agree - if Parliament votes it down. But unless the government then offers a second referendum we head to a no deal exit. I don’t see how, unless the government changes its mind on a second vote, we get one.

    I would welcome one but what the result will be will depend on the question: Deal vs No Deal / Deal vs Remain / No Deal vs Remain.
    A true, pure play No Deal is impossible, as it would ground all aircraft. So I assume any second vote has to be Deal vs Remain.


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    edited November 2018
    Theo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    This is the thinking that has seen Remainers deliberately try to sabotage the UK's side in negotiations. They even support the EU when the EU wants to effectively annex British territory.
    The three Brexiteers were in charge and fu***d it up. They hailed the N I backstop as a triumph a year ago.

    Tory Brexiteers own this deal, Remainer hands are clean.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    The number of toss-up districts according to RCP has increased yet again, to 39.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Theo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    This is the thinking that has seen Remainers deliberately try to sabotage the UK's side in negotiations. They even support the EU when the EU wants to effectively annex British territory.
    Yep, the shitfest that is Brexit is definitely all the fault of Remainers.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say, I'm actually unbothered about the midterms. Haven't bet on it at all either which probably contributes to my lack of care. In the non-betting world I'm not sure it makes very much if a difference either, Trump seems to have sidestepped the House for his sanctions and national security tariffs.


    I’m not betting as there is no value. As PBers know, I only stake substantial sums on long-odds bets which I do not favour politically. 2/1 just seems mean to me on the GOP holding the House, so I’m not playing this time. The days of big long-odds wins on Brexit and Trumpton are long gone : ‘blow it up’, reactionary outcomes have been normalised.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    German spy chief Hans-Georg Maassen, who was controversially removed and placed in another role in September, has been fired from his new job.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Meanwhile, the govt is reverse ferreting on UC. Accepting or considering 11 of the 12 recommendations
    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/draft-universal-credit-managed-migration-regulations-2018-ssac-report-and-government-statement
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,015
    Theo said:

    williamglenn said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On these latest Brexit polls, we should be cautious about assuming their accuracy. But in any case, there is no obvious route to a second referendum, unless something dramatic happens.

    Presenting a Brexit deal that doesn't have any active support ought to provide all the drama we need.
    This is the thinking that has seen Remainers deliberately try to sabotage the UK's side in negotiations. They even support the EU when the EU wants to effectively annex British territory.
    Haven't seen your first 9 posts, were they more restrained about sounding the traitorous Remainers klaxon, or did ye get right in about it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    Just commit to the all UK customs union until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2018
    Re: Brexit and the Irish backstop.

    It seems to me that the Irish are taking a very high risk strategy by making the current interpretation of the backstop as key to the whole exit agreement.

    I think that the core British position/commitment is that they agree a permanent position that there should be no hard border between Northern Ireland/Eire, but that they refuse to state that the current solution to avoiding such a hard border (the backstop) is a permanent solution. The Irish (the EU?) are refusing to accept that the initial commitment is sufficient without the latter. Which is obviously a big risk to Eire if the insistence on the latter leads to no deal and the requirement (on the EU) to impose a hard border by default. However we are where we are (failing a change in the Irish Government).

    How about the following as a possible way out of the impasse?

    1) Both sides formally state their commitment to avoiding a hard border (even a statement that the avoidance of a hard border is permanent)
    2) Both sides formally state that they do not see the current backstop as a permanent end state and will work together to develop alternative solutions, technological or otherwise
    3) A statement of principles is agreed on how a "hard border" (and avoidance thereof) is defined against which any alternative solutions/proposals can be judged
    4) the agreement of a clearly independent third party arbiter on whether alternative solutions proposed (either unilaterally or together) will satisfy the previously agreed statement of principles.


    The final point going forward is that this should be recognised as primarily a bilateral issue, and not something which needs permanent input at an EU member level (whilst obviously recognising that the Irish can't agree to something that fundamentally compromises the EU's borders.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    German spy chief Hans-Georg Maassen, who was controversially removed and placed in another role in September, has been fired from his new job.

    By Merkel?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
    Not according to the Times tonight. Compromise in the offing apparently
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
    Well, ignoring GDP, 'disasterous' would include: shortages of vital medicines, long flight delays, M26 becoming a lorry-park, major corporates exiting the UK, large-scale layoffs, run on the pound, selected food scarcities, etc. etc.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Whether no deal will be as disastrous to the UK as many of the worst predictions is one question. However i find it inconceivable that some of the more disastrous scenarios envisaged would have little or no impact on the EU or wider global financial system pretty implausible. Some people are talking about the world's 5th/6th largest economy turning in to Venezuela practically overnight. That doesn't happen without a large scale collapse of the global economy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
    Not according to the Times tonight. Compromise in the offing apparently
    My (metaphorical) money's on Big_G's commonsense view. I hope you're right Big_G!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Benpointer said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
    Well, ignoring GDP, 'disasterous' would include: shortages of vital medicines, long flight delays, M26 becoming a lorry-park, major corporates exiting the UK, large-scale layoffs, run on the pound, selected food scarcities, etc. etc.
    You have got it bad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
    Never mind the damage to the UK economy polling shows No Deal could lead to the destruction of the UK with Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland voting for a United Ireland, leaving just England and Wales remaining (though of course tonight's Survation has even England and Wales backing Remain now)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    Agreed we are leaving; let's celebrate with a BINO!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    Some do ask that question, but there seem to be very contradictory answers between those who insist the EU no longer care about us at all or what we do (implying the EU are so stupid as to be uncaring what a very large nation on the doorstep does) and those who insist the EU really are just waiting for us to change our minds and we could be welcomed back in (but does not really address the point it seems improbable we could be a productive partner as we would be even more riven and bitter than now).
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited November 2018
    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    Corbo is nothing to do with me!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    27
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    And a UK who voted to leave but in many people eyes were forced to stay, not because their original decision was flawed, but because the politicians contrived to screw up the negotiated departure.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    alex. said:

    Whether no deal will be as disastrous to the UK as many of the worst predictions is one question. However i find it inconceivable that some of the more disastrous scenarios envisaged would have little or no impact on the EU or wider global financial system pretty implausible. Some people are talking about the world's 5th/6th largest economy turning in to Venezuela practically overnight. That doesn't happen without a large scale collapse of the global economy.

    I've not seen anyone saying the UK economy would become Venezuela overnight, or anything like. That still leaves plenty of scope for a lot of pain though, which I believe would occur with No Deal.

    And yes it would impact the EU as well, but nothing like as severely as the UK, which is why they are very unlikely to be 'stared down' imo.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    And a UK who voted to leave but in many people eyes were forced to stay, not because their original decision was flawed, but because the politicians contrived to screw up the negotiated departure.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    Some do ask that question, but there seem to be very contradictory answers between those who insist the EU no longer care about us at all or what we do (implying the EU are so stupid as to be uncaring what a very large nation on the doorstep does) and those who insist the EU really are just waiting for us to change our minds and we could be welcomed back in (but does not really address the point it seems improbable we could be a productive partner as we would be even more riven and bitter than now).
    Every question seems to add more questions and if we had a second referendum how would the EU position be clarified before the voting
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
    Not according to the Times tonight. Compromise in the offing apparently
    I think the Times gets its material from no 10, they are desperately talking up the prospects of a deal in the hope that the EU will be persuaded to call a special summit. But judging by Varadkars comments May is going to have to eat a huge slice of humble pie in public and it is not clear that she is able or willing to do this.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited November 2018
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    27
    As a leaver I am sad about this, but I think it is a true statement. They really, really do want us to stay. Just listen to Philppe Lamberts on Sky he really wants us to have another vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    27
    Do you have a basis for that and on what terms
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Hyufd

    Spot on. Why is this such an issue? CU unless and until an Irish border solution can be found. Fine.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    ralphmalph said:

    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    27
    As a leaver I am sad about this, but I think it is a true statement. They really, really do want us to stay. Just listen to Philppe Lamberts on Sky he really wants us to have another vote.
    Given the money we lavish on the EU is this really a surprise...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
    Not according to the Times tonight. Compromise in the offing apparently
    I think the Times gets its material from no 10, they are desperately talking up the prospects of a deal in the hope that the EU will be persuaded to call a special summit. But judging by Varadkars comments May is going to have to eat a huge slice of humble pie in public and it is not clear that she is able or willing to do this.
    I think we all need to treat each story with a degree of caution. No one knows
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    Some do ask that question, but there seem to be very contradictory answers between those who insist the EU no longer care about us at all or what we do (implying the EU are so stupid as to be uncaring what a very large nation on the doorstep does) and those who insist the EU really are just waiting for us to change our minds and we could be welcomed back in (but does not really address the point it seems improbable we could be a productive partner as we would be even more riven and bitter than now).
    Every question seems to add more questions and if we had a second referendum how would the EU position be clarified before the voting
    I reckon 80-90% of the public have no idea what May’s position is. I include myself in that. This is her genius.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    HYUFD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
    Never mind the damage to the UK economy polling shows No Deal could lead to the destruction of the UK with Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland voting for a United Ireland, leaving just England and Wales remaining (though of course tonight's Survation has even England and Wales backing Remain now)
    Indeed. And then of course there is the terminal damage such a series of events would deliver to the Conservative Party.

    Leave voters would, in the main, quite rightly say they didn't vote for the chaos of No Deal and would blame the Government and thus the Tories for the country's predicament. Most Tory MPs know that, which is why I suspect even a heavily compromised TMay deal will get through parliament.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    Some do ask that question, but there seem to be very contradictory answers between those who insist the EU no longer care about us at all or what we do (implying the EU are so stupid as to be uncaring what a very large nation on the doorstep does) and those who insist the EU really are just waiting for us to change our minds and we could be welcomed back in (but does not really address the point it seems improbable we could be a productive partner as we would be even more riven and bitter than now).
    Every question seems to add more questions and if we had a second referendum how would the EU position be clarified before the voting
    I reckon 80-90% of the public have no idea what May’s position is. I include myself in that. This is her genius.
    Post above meant for anothernick
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    ralphmalph said:

    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    27
    As a leaver I am sad about this, but I think it is a true statement. They really, really do want us to stay. Just listen to Philppe Lamberts on Sky he really wants us to have another vote.
    Maybe, but leavers are not the only ones with unrealistic expectations of how that could work out. If we have been holding the EU back from pursuing some of the things they want to do, or won't go in whole hog, they might, despite being sad to see us go, actually see the institution benefit from not having us as a member. If Brexit is a disaster and the EU so wonderful we will be back in time, but quite frankly given how we moaned while in and they moaned at us for moaning, perhaps it would do the EU some good for us to be out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Benpointer said:

    Andy_Cooke said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    It would need 60/40 minimum to make the Government consider seriously reversing now and I just don't see us getting there in time. The hand-wringing is too late. We're leaving and we just have to sup it up.

    Personally, I think it would take Conservative voters switching to majority Remain for the Government to seriously consider reversing. That's the group the Government have to keep on board, after all, and the group whose opinions they'll most be concerned about.
    Maybe swing voters as a second order consideration.

    The Conservative base ain't switching over, so neither's the Government. Unless it's looking like a No Deal outcome AND the Government get convinced that a No Deal outcome would be disastrous (on the Winter-of-Discontent level and beyond). In that case... I actually think they'd freeze in indecision, come to think of it, and we could end up with No Deal by inaction.
    Is there anyone out there still prepared to argue that No Deal would be anything other than disasterous (on a scale hugely beyond 'winter of discontent')?
    Define disastrous. You remainers love to use GDP so will it be as the forecasts predicted i.e mild. Or as the nutter elements predict. i.e on here I have read "The complete destruction of the UK economy"
    Never mind the damage to the UK economy polling shows No Deal could lead to the destruction of the UK with Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland voting for a United Ireland, leaving just England and Wales remaining (though of course tonight's Survation has even England and Wales backing Remain now)
    Indeed. And then of course there is the terminal damage such a series of events would deliver to the Conservative Party.

    Leave voters would, in the main, quite rightly say they didn't vote for the chaos of No Deal and would blame the Government and thus the Tories for the country's predicament. Most Tory MPs know that, which is why I suspect even a heavily compromised TMay deal will get through parliament.
    Not necessarily, the Tories would simply dump May for a Leaver like Davis or Boris but by then Corbyn would likely be PM anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    Wales, NW Eng, SW Eng all flip.

    Curtice: strongest swing to Remain in those areas that were strongest for Leave.

    Leave losing its heartlands.

    There still won't be a 2nd vote before we Brexit in March 2019. For that to happen, Remoaners need wild polls showing the public 65/35 for Remain, at least. No sign of this.

    The guns of August are being rolled onto the railtracks. We are leaving.

    If I were an ultra-Remoaner, I'd be aiming for calamitous No Deal, a GE, and maybe a 2nd vote swiftly after. Trouble is, you need to get rid of eurosceptic Corbyn first.
    No one who wants to remain asks the important question. How many of the 27 would want us to stay and continual be a pain in the neck
    Some do ask that question, but there seem to be very contradictory answers between those who insist the EU no longer care about us at all or what we do (implying the EU are so stupid as to be uncaring what a very large nation on the doorstep does) and those who insist the EU really are just waiting for us to change our minds and we could be welcomed back in (but does not really address the point it seems improbable we could be a productive partner as we would be even more riven and bitter than now).
    Every question seems to add more questions and if we had a second referendum how would the EU position be clarified before the voting
    Suerly, the one thing we know about referendums is that the winning side has no responsibility to deliver what it promised.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Anazina said:

    Hyufd

    Spot on. Why is this such an issue? CU unless and until an Irish border solution can be found. Fine.

    It needs to be agreed that the Irish/the EU agree that such alternative solutions might be found and actively pursued, even if they aren't currently available. As long as the EU can refuse to accept any alternatives down the line, without any independent arbiter on whether they are adopting a reasonable position, we get nowhere.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    It was interesting that 5 live did a story this morning that Brittany ferries has seen their post March 19 bookings collapse due to the uncertainty. The company was founded by Brittany farmers to attract UK holidaymakers and they have three new ferries on order. When asked their spokesperson said they, and all the channel ports, are directing anger towards their own government and that their government had to stop a no deal and agree a sensible deal with the UK

    It is not all one way
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Anazina said:

    Hyufd

    Spot on. Why is this such an issue? CU unless and until an Irish border solution can be found. Fine.

    Some people clearly believe a bad brexit is not worth is as they will not, in fact, get a chance to brexit properly down the line. Which is fine, but since May is pushing for that bad brexit they have no excuse for not removing her, unless they are unable to, in which case they need to ask if a bad brexit is worse than no brexit, and start campaigning for remain if they do believe that - they have a better chance of achieving that than the brexit they want, despite the potential of accidental no deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    anothernick said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    anothernick said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1059573072066437120

    May's position is too weak to stare down the EU. They will continue to insist on the backstop. Either May will be forced to concede or the imminent threat of no deal will cause the government to collapse. If the government collapses it will be replaced by another which will concede the backstop, and perhaps much more besides.
    Not according to the Times tonight. Compromise in the offing apparently
    I think the Times gets its material from no 10, they are desperately talking up the prospects of a deal in the hope that the EU will be persuaded to call a special summit. But judging by Varadkars comments May is going to have to eat a huge slice of humble pie in public and it is not clear that she is able or willing to do this.
    She will, if May does not get a Deal she is toast and she knows it, the only reason she is there is to get a Deal, if No Deal she will be swiftly dumped and replaced as Tory Leader and PM by a Leaver if Corbyn has not replaced her as PM first
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Anazina said:

    Hyufd

    Spot on. Why is this such an issue? CU unless and until an Irish border solution can be found. Fine.

    Agreed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    It was interesting that 5 live did a story this morning that Brittany ferries has seen their post March 19 bookings collapse due to the uncertainty. The company was founded by Brittany farmers to attract UK holidaymakers and they have three new ferries on order. When asked their spokesperson said they, and all the channel ports, are directing anger towards their own government and that their government had to stop a no deal and agree a sensible deal with the UK

    It is not all one way

    Yes, but all, or most, of the 27 need to fall to that sort of pressure to cave. And we're half caved already given the split in the political class, and those desperately waiting for an opportunity to reverse it all.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    In case this hasn't been noted: Larry Sabato's final assessment is:

    Senate: Dems to gain NV AZ, GOP to gain ND MO IN, net +1 to the Repblicans (52-48)

    House: Dems At least +30, probably +34, and maybe more, winning a House majority

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: I went to a posh party at the French Embassy this evening, celebrating the triumphs of French tourism etc etc (and why not, France excels in selling itself). One of the speakers was a Brit, a well known head of an arts quango, and she said in her speech "I know we all regret the tragedy of Brexit"....

    blah blah blah

    At the time I just stood there with my free glass of Puilly Fusse and quietly heckled under my breath.

    Now I wish I had marched up to the stage and told her where the fuck to fuck off. She simply assumed that a large grand room full of affluent Londoners would all agree with her. Absolutely obnoxious on so many levels. How did she know there weren't rich Leavers, poor Leavers, eccentric Leavers, non-London Leavers, London Leavers, standing in her her audience?

    Stupid cow. The voting evidence shows that a lot of middle/upper class Brits (even in London) voted Leave, even if it didn't, you don't make speeches assuming the largest political vote in British history (17.4m people) is a proletarian irrelevance which must be regretted by all, and hopefully overrruled.

    Grrrr.

    Presumably she knew not literally everyone in the room would agree with that statement, but reading the room she knew enough would.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    It was interesting that 5 live did a story this morning that Brittany ferries has seen their post March 19 bookings collapse due to the uncertainty. The company was founded by Brittany farmers to attract UK holidaymakers and they have three new ferries on order. When asked their spokesperson said they, and all the channel ports, are directing anger towards their own government and that their government had to stop a no deal and agree a sensible deal with the UK

    It is not all one way

    It is part of the reason why Macrons ratings are falling, he keeps talking about jobs from the City moving to Paris and the people in Pas de Calais, Normandy and Brittany are all saying what about our jobs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,177
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    In case this hasn't been noted: Larry Sabato's final assessment is:

    Senate: Dems to gain NV AZ, GOP to gain ND MO IN, net +1 to the Repblicans (52-48)

    House: Dems At least +30, probably +34, and maybe more, winning a House majority

    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

    I feel like those even more casually focused on american politics than us amateurs may be very surprised by the Senate results tomorrow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    Speculation tonight May will agree the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period this week and sign the whole UK up to the Customs Union until a future deal is agreed to prevent the need for a hard border but Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab could resign over the backstop issue as he wants a clear endpoint to any Customs Union arrangement or backstop

    https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/11/05/theresa-may-facing-more-resignations-over-her-brexit-deal/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SeanT said:

    Anecdote: I went to a posh party at the French Embassy this evening, celebrating the triumphs of French tourism etc etc (and why not, France excels in selling itself). One of the speakers was a Brit, a well known head of an arts quango, and she said in her speech "I know we all regret the tragedy of Brexit"....

    blah blah blah

    At the time I just stood there with my free glass of Puilly Fusse and quietly heckled under my breath.

    Now I wish I had marched up to the stage and told her where the fuck to fuck off. She simply assumed that a large grand room full of affluent Londoners would all agree with her. Absolutely obnoxious on so many levels. How did she know there weren't rich Leavers, poor Leavers, eccentric Leavers, non-London Leavers, London Leavers, standing in her her audience?

    Stupid cow. The voting evidence shows that a lot of middle/upper class Brits (even in London) voted Leave, even if it didn't, you don't make speeches assuming the largest political vote in British history (17.4m people) is a proletarian irrelevance which must be regretted by all, and hopefully overrruled.

    Grrrr.

    I did a presentation today on Brexit to a bunch of people in my organisation.

    Someone quipped "if I knew it was going to turn out like this I would have voted remain"

    I said, oh, did you vote leave and change your mind then?

    To which he replied that he had voted leave and most definitely had not changed his mind.

    A couple of others piped up that they had voted leave and had not changed their minds.

    Range of ages in than bunch from 20's to 50's

This discussion has been closed.