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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is now a 33% chance on the betting markets that there’ll be a general election next year

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Benpointer

First! Like the Dems next Tuesday!

Pulpstar

Benpointer said:

First! Like the Dems next Tuesday!

Lets hope so.

I think 33% for next year might be about right.

David_Evershed

Second - like 1/60th of a minute.

Sunil_Prasannan

fourth like the Firth

Morris_Dancer

Don't think it'll happen.

Benpointer

"I can’t remember a time when there has been so much uncertainty about the short and medium-term of British politics."

I worry for you Mike - you can't remember late June 2016?

I suspect the Tories will strain every sinew to avoid an election before 2022.

CarlottaVance

On topic I agree with OGH.

Off topic, not everyone is mourning Merkel’s political mortality:

https://twitter.com/quatremer/status/1057268064843153408?s=21

Benpointer

Sunil_Prasannan said:

fourth like the Firth

What happened to third? Ah, third was 2nd I see.

IanB2

no-one knows the secret of the black magic box

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1057280601215115264?s=20

Benpointer

IanB2 said:

no-one knows the secret of the black magic box

Isn't posting about chocolates off Topic?

Sunil_Prasannan

Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

"Who dares wins."

WE dare!

WE will WIN!

Richard_Nabavi

If the UK government reaches a deal with the EU, but parliament rejects the deal, then I think an election is quite possible. A 33% chance sounds too high, though.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

If the UK government reaches a deal with the EU, but parliament rejects the deal, then I think an election is quite possible. A 33% chance sounds too high, though.

Better off to bet on the midterms at the moment I think !

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nabavi, wouldn't a referendum be preferred?

What's the point of a General Election? It only works somewhat if the main parties have differing views, and even then it risks conflating concerns.

AlastairMeeks

I'm very happy to lay at anything close to 3. After Theresa May's last optional election, I very much doubt she's going to volunteer for another.

Looks more like 7 to me (the government would be going to the electorate having spun a bullet in the chamber).

IanB2

The Tories would struggle to defend their credibility having got us into this mess and then calling yet another election in an attempt to find a way out of it.

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

If the UK government reaches a deal with the EU, but parliament rejects the deal, then I think an election is quite possible. A 33% chance sounds too high, though.

Better off to bet on the midterms at the moment I think !

Yes, I've been poking around SPIN's vote-share supremacy market. Some of the safe seats look to me as though they have some value.

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, wouldn't a referendum be preferred?

What's the point of a General Election? It only works somewhat if the main parties have differing views, and even then it risks conflating concerns.

Labour and the Tories are actually close now on Brexit -

i) Is going ahead
ii) UK-EU customs
ii a) Union for Labour
ii b) Time Limited arrangement for Tories
iii) "Access" to the single market (Not in it).

You'd hope the difference between those two would lead to either voting through the other's deal, but Corbyn has come up with 6 impossible tests so he won't vote through the Tories deal.
Fortunately there may be enough of his backbenchers who may sensibly vote the deal through - overcoming any votes against by the either the Grieveites or the ERG within the Tories.

Richard_Nabavi

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, wouldn't a referendum be preferred?

What's the point of a General Election? It only works somewhat if the main parties have differing views, and even then it risks conflating concerns.

No time for a referendum. The purpose of a GE would be to get a mandate to approve the deal. Whether that would work is another matter, of course.

Richard_Nabavi

IanB2 said:

The Tories would struggle to defend their credibility having got us into this mess and then calling yet another election in an attempt to find a way out of it.

Not if Labour vote against it (and if they don't there's no need for a GE).

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Benpointer

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1057280601215115264?s=20

Your post led me to this, from August. I know we don't really discuss Brexit much on here but this is a thought-provoking article - worth it just for the suggestion that BoJo is more like Helmut Goering than he is Winston Churchill

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-how-brexiteers-turned-total-strategic-mess-dehousse/

Probably not going to appeal to Leavers tbf.

IanB2

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

The Tories would struggle to defend their credibility having got us into this mess and then calling yet another election in an attempt to find a way out of it.

Not if Labour vote against it (and if they don't there's no need for a GE).

"Time to let us sort out their mess.." is quite a solid basis for a campaign.

Richard_Nabavi

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because it would take months to agree a referendum question and get the primary legislation through. There would also be all the complications of appointing the campaign groups, and you could bet your bottom dollar that there would be parliamentary and legal challenges every step of the way. Hell, they are still arguing about the last one!

Beverley_C

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

Richard_Nabavi

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

The Tories would struggle to defend their credibility having got us into this mess and then calling yet another election in an attempt to find a way out of it.

Not if Labour vote against it (and if they don't there's no need for a GE).

"Time to let us sort out their mess.." is quite a solid basis for a campaign.

It could be, if they had the faintest clue how to, or could agree what they were trying to do even in the unlikely event that the EU were happy to play along with it.

CarlottaVance

Benpointer said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1057280601215115264?s=20

Your post led me to this, from August. I know we don't really discuss Brexit much on here but this is a thought-provoking article - worth it just for the suggestion that BoJo is more like Helmut Goering than he is Winston Churchill

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-brexit-how-brexiteers-turned-total-strategic-mess-dehousse/

Probably not going to appeal to Leavers tbf.

M. Dehousse is trenchant in his criticism of both sides (and views the British as more at fault than the EU) - but it’s useful to get beyond “the British are rubbish” and “the EU are dodgy foreigners” in critiques.

IanB2

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

Richard_Nabavi

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

tlg86

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

I don’t think that’s as bonkers as it sounds. McDonnell’s refusal to criticise that move suggests to me that they think it’s smart politics by the Tories.

Sean_F

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

TheWhiteRabbit

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Foxy

Richard_Nabavi said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because it would take months to agree a referendum question and get the primary legislation through. There would also be all the complications of appointing the campaign groups, and you could bet your bottom dollar that there would be parliamentary and legal challenges every step of the way. Hell, they are still arguing about the last one!

Suspend A50 in the meantime

Beverley_C

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

I don’t think that’s as bonkers as it sounds. McDonnell’s refusal to criticise that move suggests to me that they think it’s smart politics by the Tories.

The critical voters are the Tories in marginal seats who may now get to retain those seats. Remember, it is the MPs who vote for the next leader and THAT is the important election.

Sean_F

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

IanB2

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

I don’t think that’s as bonkers as it sounds. McDonnell’s refusal to criticise that move suggests to me that they think it’s smart politics by the Tories.

The critical voters are the Tories in marginal seats who may now get to retain those seats. Remember, it is the MPs who vote for the next leader and THAT is the important election.

Assuming the Tories are brave enough to go dancing double or quits with Mrs M first?

SandyRentool

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

14% of taxpayers, <10% of adults, and yet these people are the 'Middle Class'.

Richard_Nabavi

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because it would take months to agree a referendum question and get the primary legislation through. There would also be all the complications of appointing the campaign groups, and you could bet your bottom dollar that there would be parliamentary and legal challenges every step of the way. Hell, they are still arguing about the last one!

Suspend A50 in the meantime

Even that is tricky, thanks to Gina Miller.

El_Capitano

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

Sean_F

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

14% of taxpayers, <10% of adults, and yet these people are the 'Middle Class'.</p>

A part of the middle class. People like middle ranking solicitors, junior headteachers, Deputy Heads of Service in local government, Majors or senior captains in the army would be in the £45-£55k salary range.

FrancisUrquhart

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

Also, there used to be a thing in politics about the aspirational middle class eg inheritance tax was seen as massively negative thing even though few paid it.

David_Evershed

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

14% of taxpayers, <10% of adults, and yet these people are the 'Middle Class'.</p>

Plus their spouse in most cases. So roughly just under 2 x 14% = 28%

David_Evershed

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

Also, there used to be a thing in politics about the aspirational middle class eg inheritance tax was seen as massively negative thing even though few paid it.

We all think we are not going to die for 30/40 years and the IHT limit will not be increased with inflation during that time.

Richard_Nabavi

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

David_Evershed

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What new Apple product/function/feature?

FrancisUrquhart

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What a new massively overpriced laptop, when you can buy a better spec one for 1/2 the price?

David_Evershed

Beverley_C said:

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

I don’t think that’s as bonkers as it sounds. McDonnell’s refusal to criticise that move suggests to me that they think it’s smart politics by the Tories.

The critical voters are the Tories in marginal seats who may now get to retain those seats. Remember, it is the MPs who vote for the next leader and THAT is the important election.

Conservative MPs slect the last two candiadtes for Leader but the members choose between the last two - unless one candidate makes a true statement about their opponent not having any children.

edb

More likely to vote as well?

Still seems a little odd as a targeting strategy.

FrancisUrquhart

We do live in a strange political climate...spreadsheet Phil tried to increase tax on higher rate self employed last year, this year he is giving them a tax cut.

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

We do live in a strange political climate...spreadsheet Phil tried to increase tax on higher rate self employed last year, this year he is giving them a tax cut.

It's called learning from experience!

El_Capitano

David_Evershed said:

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What new Apple product/function/feature?

Both the Mac mini and the MacBook Air are spot on for what I need. I'm currently working with a couple of old Mac minis but they're starting to show their age.

Francis - well, depends what you want to do with it; I do a reasonably unique combination of *nix-based programming, graphic design, and Xcode, and the Mac is the only platform that offers two of those (no Adobe Illustrator on Linux, no *nix on Windows - the Ubuntu-lite doesn't really hack it for the stuff I need to do) let alone the third.

David_Evershed

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

The kind of people who take the trouble to register and to vote.

FrancisUrquhart

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

We do live in a strange political climate...spreadsheet Phil tried to increase tax on higher rate self employed last year, this year he is giving them a tax cut.

It's called learning from experience!

The thing is we aren’t really addressing the issues (and I say that as somebody who would have paid more last year but didn’t think it was unreasonable). it just highlights that tax system is a mess. Combining NI and IC would be a good start*.

* Yes I know oldies get hit, but can’t be beyond the wit of man to work out a solution to that.

notme

David_Evershed said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

The kind of people who take the trouble to register and to vote.

my other half is a bog standard teacher and she's over £40k

Richard_Nabavi

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

We do live in a strange political climate...spreadsheet Phil tried to increase tax on higher rate self employed last year, this year he is giving them a tax cut.

It's called learning from experience!

The thing is we aren’t really addressing the issues (and I say that as somebody who would have paid more last year but didn’t think it was unreasonable). it just highlights that tax system is a mess. Combining NI and IC would be a good start*.

* Yes I know oldies get hit, but can’t be beyond the wit of man to work out a solution to that.

Agreed. But there's no way a fragile government without a stonking majority is going to have the political strength to do anything other than tinker at the edges.

FrancisUrquhart

El_Capitano said:

David_Evershed said:

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What new Apple product/function/feature?

Both the Mac mini and the MacBook Air are spot on for what I need. I'm currently working with a couple of old Mac minis but they're starting to show their age.

Francis - well, depends what you want to do with it; I do a reasonably unique combination of *nix-based programming, graphic design, and Xcode, and the Mac is the only platform that offers two of those (no Adobe Illustrator on Linux, no *nix on Windows - the Ubuntu-lite doesn't really hack it for the stuff I need to do) let alone the third.

Software tools...what are they...I saw some videos of legendary hacker and brains behind a competitor to Tesla’s “self-driving “ car George hotz....he uses VIM for everything....no VS, xCode, JetBrains for him! He has literally coded a load of deep learning AI that is basically as good as Tesla in a crap text editor

The man is more bonkers than his hero Elon musk after an evening with joe rogan.

FrancisUrquhart

London will host four NFL games in 2019 with two to be played at Tottenham's new stadium and two at Wembley.

Spurs new stadium might just be ready by then, if they work double overtime, and they are lucky with the weather ;-)

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/davidbenjyman/status/1057267255912882176?s=21

RochdalePioneers

Early election won't be part of a plan - it's what happens when the government collapses. And there's a higher chance of sudden collapse now than at any time for a generation. Less likely to happen than likely, but a distinct possibility.

Cyclefree

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/davidbenjyman/status/1057267255912882176?s=21

Is Arron Banks even a member of the Conservative party? If he isn't then on what basis does he think he has the right to get people to join it in order to undermine a member, MP and member of the Cabinet?

edb

Anyone who can get 100k people to do what they say can assume complete control of one of our main parties. No reason to be a member. Seems like herd mentality and wishful thinking will even keep most of that party's core vote regardless of policies.

IanB2

Cyclefree said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/davidbenjyman/status/1057267255912882176?s=21

Is Arron Banks even a member of the Conservative party? If he isn't then on what basis does he think he has the right to get people to join it in order to undermine a member, MP and member of the Cabinet?

He tried to join, thought he had been accepted, then CHQ intervened and blocked him.

OblitusSumMe

RochdalePioneers said:

Early election won't be part of a plan - it's what happens when the government collapses. And there's a higher chance of sudden collapse now than at any time for a generation. Less likely to happen than likely, but a distinct possibility.

Some have argued that the relative largesse from the budget has "imminent election" written all over it.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, relative largesse, but still nothing for the sensible expenditure required for a trebuchet-based justice system.

David_Evershed

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, relative largesse, but still nothing for the sensible expenditure required for a trebuchet-based justice system.

Surely the trebuchet is more about the punishment than the justice system?

SandyRentool

OblitusSumMe said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Early election won't be part of a plan - it's what happens when the government collapses. And there's a higher chance of sudden collapse now than at any time for a generation. Less likely to happen than likely, but a distinct possibility.

Some have argued that the relative largesse from the budget has "imminent election" written all over it.

I'm sure Hammond was thinking "imminent election" when he squeezed himself in beside Liz Truss at the end of his budget speech...

OblitusSumMe

FrancisUrquhart said:

El_Capitano said:

David_Evershed said:

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What new Apple product/function/feature?

Both the Mac mini and the MacBook Air are spot on for what I need. I'm currently working with a couple of old Mac minis but they're starting to show their age.

Francis - well, depends what you want to do with it; I do a reasonably unique combination of *nix-based programming, graphic design, and Xcode, and the Mac is the only platform that offers two of those (no Adobe Illustrator on Linux, no *nix on Windows - the Ubuntu-lite doesn't really hack it for the stuff I need to do) let alone the third.

Software tools...what are they...I saw some videos of legendary hacker and brains behind a competitor to Tesla’s “self-driving “ car George hotz....he uses VIM for everything....no VS, xCode, JetBrains for him! He has literally coded a load of deep learning AI that is basically as good as Tesla in a crap text editor

The man is more bonkers than his hero Elon musk after an evening with joe rogan.

VIM is a great text editor. I miss it now. Way fancier than vi.

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Me, relative largesse, but still nothing for the sensible expenditure required for a trebuchet-based justice system.

I understand that costs on the Enormo-Haddocks have overrun. Choices have to be made!

RochdalePioneers

OblitusSumMe said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Early election won't be part of a plan - it's what happens when the government collapses. And there's a higher chance of sudden collapse now than at any time for a generation. Less likely to happen than likely, but a distinct possibility.

Some have argued that the relative largesse from the budget has "imminent election" written all over it.

Indeed. It struck me that as Hammond - not as stupid as most Tories - knows just how bad Hard Brexit would be decided to get on with an insurance budget so that they have something to sell to voters if needed. I cannot think of a single other reason why he would chose tax cuts right now - even the people who benefit (myself included) can think of a whole pile of things the money needed to be spent on.

"You may hate us on Brexit but please still vote Conservative. Here, have some money". Which is why McDonnell has supported it. Would love to have been in the meeting with Corbyn where he pitched that strategy. Assuming there was a meeting...

FrancisUrquhart

Trump suggests he will end birthright citizenship with executive order

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/30/trump-birthright-citizenship-executive-order-14th-amendment

Sean_F

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump suggests he will end birthright citizenship with executive order

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/30/trump-birthright-citizenship-executive-order-14th-amendment

The Courts would certainly strike that down. He'd need a constitutional amendment/

OldKingCole

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

Pulpstar

Sean_F said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Trump suggests he will end birthright citizenship with executive order

https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/30/trump-birthright-citizenship-executive-order-14th-amendment

The Courts would certainly strike that down. He'd need a constitutional amendment/

Yes - I think Roberts in SCOTUS would rule against Trump on that.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Evershed, the punishment of criminals is justice. Reoffending rates for criminals launched into the North Sea would be extremely low.

Mr. Me, costs of enormo-haddock research have not overrun. Funding has been insufficient.

Richard_Nabavi

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

currystar

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

The average registered nurse with 5 years experience would be on around £18 per hour. They also get significantly enhanced rates for working weekends and nights. By that stage of their career if still working direct for the NHS they will be on 8-10 weeks holiday (My wife is on 9 weeks). Most if not all nurses do bank work (overtime), especially in their holidays as 10 weeks is a lot of holiday. So their actual pay for the year is likely to exceed £40,000

OldKingCole

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Richard_Nabavi

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Of course. But this is not someone that would be regarded as rich, which was what the discussion was about.

SandyRentool

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Including making sure the junior doctors on £60k don't make any f-ups.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/Zeddary/status/1057316039892058113

SandyRentool

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Of course. But this is not someone that would be regarded as rich, which what the discussion was about.

I never mentioned rich. I was making the point that describing someone in the top decile of income as Middle Class is a bit silly.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057098548771258369

FrancisUrquhart

Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct has bought Evans Cycles out of administration but has warned it may have to close half the specialist retailer’s 62 stores putting hundreds of jobs at risk.

NorthofStoke

David_Evershed said:

SandyRentool said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nabavi, if the acceptance or rejection of a deal is the purpose of a GE, why can't that be the purpose of a referendum?

Why is it possible to hold a campaign about the deal for a GE but not for a referendum, which would be more limited as it wouldn't have to consider the full scope of an election and could focus solely on the deal, which would (as we've agreed) be at the heart of a General Election anyway?

Because the word "Referendum" is like a red rag to a bull for the Brexiteer Ultras. The govt would be well advised to look up the old adage about tails and legs....

Yesterday sounded like an election budget. Somebody is taking one heck of a gamble with the country's finances in order to hold the Tory party together for six months.

So somebody has identified higher rate taxpayers as the critical swing voters?

John McDonnell seems to have done so.

In parts of London and the South, they may well be.

all those marginals in the home counties

Overall, 14% of taxpayers are subject to the 40% rate. There are probably constituencies where that proportion reaches 30%+.

14% of taxpayers, <10% of adults, and yet these people are the 'Middle Class'.</p>

Plus their spouse in most cases. So roughly just under 2 x 14% = 28%

I think it is important to also look at income and wealth over time (vertical mobility). Over a working lifetime many more than 14% of tax payers will earn that level of income and even more will hope to and be homing in on it. That affects perception.

OldKingCole

SandyRentool said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Including making sure the junior doctors on £60k don't make any f-ups.

In my day the first couple of weeks in February and August could be hair-raising. Junior docs in the first few years don’t get £60k

HYUFD

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Of course. But this is not someone that would be regarded as rich, which was what the discussion was about.

To be in the top 1% you need to earn about £160 000 a year+, people in that bracket along with those with millions of pounds worth of assets are proper rich everyone else above the average wage is just varying degrees of middle class

kle4

33%? I'd put it at at least half a chance.

Philip_Thompson

SandyRentool said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Including making sure the junior doctors on £60k don't make any f-ups.

Touché

HYUFD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

We do live in a strange political climate...spreadsheet Phil tried to increase tax on higher rate self employed last year, this year he is giving them a tax cut.

It's called learning from experience!

The thing is we aren’t really addressing the issues (and I say that as somebody who would have paid more last year but didn’t think it was unreasonable). it just highlights that tax system is a mess. Combining NI and IC would be a good start*.

* Yes I know oldies get hit, but can’t be beyond the wit of man to work out a solution to that.

Better to focus NI on state pensions, healthcare and contributory unemployment benefit as it was intended for

Richard_Nabavi

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Of course. But this is not someone that would be regarded as rich, which what the discussion was about.

I never mentioned rich. I was making the point that describing someone in the top decile of income as Middle Class is a bit silly.

Whether it's silly or not, a rural solicitor or a deputy head teacher is unquestionably the kind of person one would think of as middle class in the UK. You seem to be referring to something quite different, which is the statistical middle band of income. Even that is a bit misleading because this is not a normal distribution, it's got a long upper tail, so the middle might refer either to (say) the fourth to sixth decile, or to the middle of the typical ranges of salary one might come across in everyday life (even if the number of individuals on those salaries is greater in the lower range).

It's semantics, anyway. One just needs to be clear what one means.

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057098548771258369

From what base though? That might be good news for Cruz.

Pulpstar

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057098548771258369

That sounds like good news for Cruz on the surface to me.

Richard_Nabavi

@Pulpstar: Snap!

Fysics_Teacher

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Given the treatment that I get from specialist nurses, I can attest to both the responsibility and skill.

HYUFD

SandyRentool said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jobs over £40K:

https://www.jobsite.co.uk/jobs/permanent?salary=40000&salarytypeid=1

Jobs like Registered Nurse, Chartered Surveyor, software developers, solicitors, sales managers...

Where are you finding yer average nurse on £40k?

I'm not. I posted a link to jobs in that range, which includes the jobs I mentioned.

A nurse on £40k would have a lot of responsibilities and skills. And I mean a lot.

Of course. But this is not someone that would be regarded as rich, which what the discussion was about.

I never mentioned rich. I was making the point that describing someone in the top decile of income as Middle Class is a bit silly.

Upper middle class they would certainly be ie above lower middle class but below the super rich and aristocratic old money upper class

SirBenjamin

Richard_Nabavi said:

Whether it's silly or not, a rural solicitor or a deputy head teacher is unquestionably the kind of person one would think of as middle class in the UK. You seem to be referring to something quite different, which is the statistical middle band of income. Even that is a bit misleading because this is not a normal distribution, it's got a long upper tail, so the middle might refer either to (say) the fourth to sixth decile, or to the middle of the typical ranges of salary one might come across in everyday life (even if the number of individuals on those salaries is greater in the lower range).

It's semantics, anyway. One just needs to be clear what one means.

Additionally, ABC classification includes 'class by association' - if you are the spouse or living-at-home child of a 'head of a household' with a higher status job, you are defined by their grade. (If you do a part-time grade D job, but your husband is an B, then you count as a B. etc.) And if you're retired with any sort of private pension, your 'class' in this context is determined by the last role you did before retirement.

This makes the 'middle class' far larger in number than the figure one would arrive at simply assessing the incomes of individual earners.

Sean_F

Richard_Nabavi said:

@Pulpstar: Snap!

I'd agree that probably means a boost for Cruz.

Gallowgate

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1057098548771258369

That sounds like good news for Cruz on the surface to me.

What about white California-esque middle-class white voters?

kingbongo

OblitusSumMe said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

El_Capitano said:

David_Evershed said:

El_Capitano said:

I enjoyed watching that Apple product launch more than Spreadsheet Phil at the same time yesterday. Pretty sure Tim Cook's announcements will improve my life more than Phil's, too.

What new Apple product/function/feature?

Both the Mac mini and the MacBook Air are spot on for what I need. I'm currently working with a couple of old Mac minis but they're starting to show their age.

Francis - well, depends what you want to do with it; I do a reasonably unique combination of *nix-based programming, graphic design, and Xcode, and the Mac is the only platform that offers two of those (no Adobe Illustrator on Linux, no *nix on Windows - the Ubuntu-lite doesn't really hack it for the stuff I need to do) let alone the third.

Software tools...what are they...I saw some videos of legendary hacker and brains behind a competitor to Tesla’s “self-driving “ car George hotz....he uses VIM for everything....no VS, xCode, JetBrains for him! He has literally coded a load of deep learning AI that is basically as good as Tesla in a crap text editor

The man is more bonkers than his hero Elon musk after an evening with joe rogan.

VIM is a great text editor. I miss it now. Way fancier than vi.

we coded most of Barclay’s Capital’s trading interfaces in vi - no VIM bollocks, proper vi. As far as I know my code is still processing millions of pounds of trading in various exotic instruments - I wish we’d had IntelliJ! We did it in vi because our boss was a cheapskate not because it was hardcore