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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in hi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beto O’Rourke: not the new Lincoln but perhaps following in his footsteps
These are not normal times. In normal times, US presidential candidates are vice presidents, senators and governors: people who already have a record in high office. There have always been exceptions but even then, they usually conformed to the rule in a wider sense. Trump does not conform to the rule. Indeed, Trump fails to conform to many received rules of politics. The easy conclusion would be to suggest that it’s Trump who is the exception and while there’s an element of truth in that, the proper conclusion has to be that the old rules are now very imperfect guides – a conclusion strengthened by how close Sanders came to winning the nomination.*
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FPT: F1: just checking yesterday's practice times. Verstappen topped both. If you backed him at 5.6 (he lengthened a little) on Betfair, you can now hedge at 2.66.
F1: ha. Raikkonen for pole has gone from 10 to 21, though.
Whilst it is utterly their right to do so, it seems a little odd for a few reasons. Firstly, Green has not been convicted of anything - except perhaps for the evil sin of being a Conservative supporter.
Secondly, even if a boycott were to kill off those chains, Green won't get hurt much - but it will hurt the staff who work in the stores. And with the rise of Internet shopping, it is unlikely that other high street brands will take over.
The billionaire might just survive. Those working the cash registers and in the stockroom will suffer far more.
Sainz/Hulkenberg to win, each way, at 651 (each).
Sainz, podium, 23
Hulkenberg, podium, 29
Sainz, fastest qualifier, each way, 376
Hulkenberg, fastest qualifier, each way, 501
I fully expect Mercedes/Ferrari to up their game a lot. But things look very close. Red Bull appear to be in a league of their own, but their reliability is very fragile, particularly Ricciardo's. To take the P1 times, if that represented the grid, and Ricciardo had a DNF, Sainz and Hulkenberg would finish 2nd and 3rd. If P2 times are used on the same basis, they'd be 2nd and 4th.
Even allowing for sandbagging and real improvement from Ferrari and Mercedes, the each way win bet (more than 80/1 to be top 2) does look long.
Anyway, I do advise only putting on tiny stakes. As always, do at your own risk.
He’s also young, and smart, and must figure his chances much better in 2024 or 2028 - by which time Texas might well vote for a home state Democratic candidate. Which would make him virtually unstoppable.
An outside chance as VP pick, I guess.
As for laying the front runners, I’d be hesitant, particularly in Harris’ case (there were some on her saying lay her when she was recently 7/1 for the nomination....). Unless she self-destructs (a possibility for any candidate), the pattern of early primaries make her a formidable candidate.
Cory Booker is probably her direct competitor. I’d dismissed him until recently, but this is quite a smart populist policy without glaring flaws:
https://slate.com/business/2018/10/cory-booker-economic-plan-baby-bonds-reparations.html
Sanders is too old. Biden possibly as well (and though I think he would actually have made a fine president, undeniably prone to campaign missteps) - still has an outside shot, though.
Warren, I’m not sure. I think she still has an outside shot too - and undoubted appeal to the progressive wing of the party - but has clear vulnerabilities in a fight with Trump.
Cold logic would say that he should wait. I don’t think that he should follow cold logic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/10/how-kamala-harris-will-campaign-against-trump/573967/
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/25/1807203/-Right-wing-Dallas-Morning-News-endorses-Beto-for-Senate?detail=emaildkre
If you add Brexit to the mix Cameron must be a contender for 'Worst Prime Minister' ever.
Biden/O’Rourke East/South
Harris/O’Rourke. West/South.
The third option would be a break with the past.
Much has been made recently of Trumps ability to coin catchy nicknames for opponents.
I am curious if #MAGAbomber is going to stick, and have any effect...
See the commons "spreadsheet of shame", for example.
Collateral damage in destroyed innocent people is perceived as a price worth paying by campaigners.
https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2020-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1055912575093792768?s=21
But I don’t think Trump will beaten using the politics of the schoolyard - otherwise TOADUS might already have caught on.
Remember the anecdotes about Republican voters being against Obamacare and for the Affordable Care Act?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45988854
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-shows-snp-could-13486523
http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article8719501.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/PAY-Sir-Philip-Green-aboard-his-yacht-Lionheart-in-Greece.jpg
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1056017894419632128
It is not surprising their support is dwindling. What is more significant is that, as with the even more hapless government in Cardiff Bay, they still remain far more popular than any alternatives.
Two points to add. This week's Newstatesman features an article by Robert Kuttner, editor of American Prospect. The piece is mainly about Warren, who he praises highly, is definitely running, has money in place, is already touring etc etc. In his opinion she is "likely to be the nominee".
But, he also mentions Sherrod Brown of Ohio. I had never heard of him. The author says: "For those who think a white guy from the Midwest is the safer strategy for winning back Trump voters, Brown is the man."
I have taken a tiny nibble on Brown at 70/1 on BF.
Still available.
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/413320-voters-report-texas-voting-machines-changing-straight-party-selections
https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/26/texas-voting-machines-2018-straight-ticket-midterm-elections/
I could see Beto as a decent VP candidate to Harris. He has a folksy charm and someone from a red state would give some sort of balance to the ticket.
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/09/election-security-remains-just-vulnerable-2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2aBOyP38W0
Democracy depends on the people believing that the electoral system and process is fair. A system and process can be fair, but it gets in trouble if it is seen as being unfair by enough people. Perception is important.
The arguments over fairness of electoral systems are well-rehearsed, e.g. FPTP versus AV, and each has advantages and disadvantages. But the process by which the system is implemented is vital, and in this the USA is world-leading in showing how it shouldn't be done.
You need to ensure that people are confident that the vote they cast is accurately and fairly counted, and that is something they are utterly failing in.
I think that there is room for NDAs which give some privacy to the victim as well as the offender but there is undoubtedly an issue when they are being used to conceal serial offenders. The problem is exacerbated by the extensions of criminal law in recent years into hate speech, etc. as well as a more robust view of what amounts to a sexual assault. My guess is that the government will consult on this but ultimately be reluctant to act as there will be little, if any, consensus.
None of this excuses the Court of Appeal decision. It is unlikely now that this will be appealed to the Supreme Court as the Court will recognise that there is no point to the order and it leaves another unwelcome precedent where statutory intervention is required.
Worth remembering that the allegations could be that he’s a difficult boss, always shouting, being unreasonable, losing his temper etc. Some people can cope. Others can’t. One of the latter can’t. He/she makes mistakes. Green gets angry. The cycle continues. Relations between them break down. The “trust and confidence” necessary in any employment relationship is no longer there so it’s agreed that the junior member of staff leave and get a pay off and confidentiality and a decent reference as this in the interests of both. None of this is for the criminal courts.
The allegations may also be very much worse, of course. We don’t know if any of the people involved already went to the police and were told that no action would be taken and hence the settlement route was taken.
I do not defend Green. He looks from his appearances on TV and other stuff I’ve read to be a bully and to have a hint of the Robert Maxwell about him. But I dislike mob bullying and people subverting the rule of law.
And, for those who think that the rule of law is some sort of namby pamby nonsense invented by lawyers for the benefit of their own pockets, try living in a country without it.
As predicted on here yesterday.
And yet despite having had Obama and his V-P for 8 years, people chose Trump instead. Perhaps those Obama achievements were built on sandier foundations than we all realised.
This has always seemed reasonable. I don't really understand the NDAs that Green and others are supposed to have used.
Everything wasn't rosy before Trump.
You probably was saying the same about Bush Jr.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/revealed-philip-green-paid-seven-figure-sums-to-silence-abuse-claims
As a general point you owe a duty of confidentiality to your ex-employer anyway regardless of whether you have signed an NDA but that generally applies to commercially sensitive matters and is not often enforced because it is usually more trouble than it is worth.
Seems odd to use them for personal matters
Assume Top Shop folds and all their business goes to Amazon.
Well, that means more money for Blue Origin, and therefore hastens the day when mankind will no longer be dependent on this little blue planet.
Sue Grabbit and Runne will be buying up call centres as we speak
Although Blue Origin have access to too much money, if anything. It's intriguing to think of what else they're spending their new $1 billion a year on. Their new factory, ship, BE4 testing and development, and New Glenn construction cannot be taking that much up. Even adding in Blue Moon.
I'm fairly convinced they've got some major skumkworks developments going on. Although that's probably more hope than anything else. Certainly there are lots of expensive things aside from rockets that need to be developed for Bezos' dream to come to reality.
That's one area I criticise SpaceX on with the BFR: they're doing the bare minimum (and IMV skimping even on that).
That's why we get all these fake apologies when someone says what they think. If the woman from Southampton University thinks war veterans are enjoying white, male privilege, that's her right. I think she's barmy, but students like to cause upset anyway.
One can make a very good case that Hain was abusing it (and given this was only a temporary injunction his behaviour would need very strong justification, which it appears to lack), but he was acting welll within the law, even if he was abusing his privilege.
His behaviour more likely undermines the future security of parliamentary privilege than the rule of law itself.
So affects both candidates but rather devastating for the Dem/good for the Republican overall.
Before Apollo, the US did the Gemini project to develop the tech needed to bridge between Mercury and Apollo. It's likely that that expensive project enabled Apollo's success - especially in the given time period - by allowing the tech and processes to be developed and tested in parallel with Apollo. IMV that's what Musk is missing out on: getting to Mars is not just about building a rocket and refuelling it.
Hain - knowing nothing about the case - was substituting his personal view for the courts which had had the benefit of hearing from all the parties. If people think it is OK to do that then it does tend to undermine the rule of law. Why go to court, why trust someone’s legally binding promise if someone else can just tear it all up for no good reason?
Trial / decisions by Twitter, by the uninformed are not likely to lead to good decisions and can lead to all sorts of unintended consequences eg a company or person being ruined by false or malicious allegations. See Lord MacAlpine, for instance.
He had no good reason and so far has failed to come up with one for doing what he did. Potentially he could be causing a lot of harm to a number of people beyond Green himself. And who is Hain? Not a lawyer. Not even an elected representative at this point. Brutally, he has no more standing to do what he did than Tommy Robinson.
Therefore to blame, says Stacey forgettable of BBC3, for draining the Aral Sea. Nothing to do with the broken infrastructure put in 50 years ago that loses all the water.
Had the delight of moving the stuff around a house the other week in procession so that carpet could be laid in each room in sequence, as the floor was briefly exposed.
The 19 year old person of the household had some old Top Shop stuff, but has now gone to University and graduated to Michael Kors handbags and umpteen brands of shoes.They are all poverty-stricken, these students :-) .
I think what we’re seeig his is more akin to what is happening on a much wider scale in Trump’s America. It is quite possible to stay within the rules of the system, and yet seriously undermine it, if you ignore the unwritten norms and responsibilities on which its functioning depends every bit as much as it does on the rules themselves.
In any event, I don’t think O’Rourke has a prayer this cycle, even should he suddenly decide to repudiate his avowals that he’s not running.