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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes finds just one in three saying that Maggie was “Brit

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Once you've got Mark and Carol Thatcher at an event it's difficult to lower the standard,

    Tony & Cherie Blair?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Jonathan said:

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
    Note: The Subject responds to the stimulus as predicted!
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    TSE's sneak previews of stories from behind Murdoch's Times Paywall are a great reason for reading PB, I have to say.

    Good stuff.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
    You used to say the same to Gabble when he combined the Lab and LD score and Baxtered that before the General election right?
    Yup, I remember that. That was even more daft, as events proved! ;-)

    I can't see it as being any more than a wind-up, where ultimately you end up misleading yourself.



  • carlcarl Posts: 750

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Tory 31%
    Anti-Tory 69%
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
    You used to say the same to Gabble when he combined the Lab and LD score and Baxtered that before the General election right?
    Yup, I remember that. That was even more daft, as events proved! ;-)

    I can't see it as being any more than a wind-up, where ultimately you end up misleading yourself.



    Back when the coalition was formed, I asked, whether traditional polling would be appropriate during coalition governments?

    I still don't know how you measure support for the "Government" these days.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
    You used to say the same to Gabble when he combined the Lab and LD score and Baxtered that before the General election right?
    Yup, I remember that. That was even more daft, as events proved! ;-)

    I can't see it as being any more than a wind-up, where ultimately you end up misleading yourself.



    Back when the coalition was formed, I asked, whether traditional polling would be appropriate during coalition governments?

    I still don't know how you measure support for the "Government" these days.
    10 YR UK Gilt yields, TSE. Currently 1.7%.

    Now look at the political and borrowing options available to the Italians.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704



    Back when the coalition was formed, I asked, whether traditional polling would be appropriate during coalition governments?

    I still don't know how you measure support for the "Government" these days.

    The only poll that counts is on election day. And under FPTP, the two coalition party votes definitely do not add up. That's what opinion polls have to measure.

    Just underlines what a mistake the Tories made with their constitutional theme. They could have been sitting pretty right now. AV, new boundaries and a co-operative coalition partner.

    Huge strategic mistake.
  • Surely 33% in agreement is enough to prove Maggie is greatest peacetime PM. If you list all the peacetime PMs and ask the same question of them individually who on earth is going to score more than 33% on a agree/disagree question?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Surely 33% in agreement is enough to prove Maggie is greatest peacetime PM. If you list all the peacetime PMs and ask the same question of them individually who on earth is going to score more than 33% on a agree/disagree question?

    Was Thatcher a peacetime PM if the Falklands War was her defining moment?

  • Jonathan said:



    Back when the coalition was formed, I asked, whether traditional polling would be appropriate during coalition governments?

    I still don't know how you measure support for the "Government" these days.

    The only poll that counts is on election day. And under FPTP, the two coalition party votes definitely do not add up. That's what opinion polls have to measure.

    Just underlines what a mistake the Tories made with their constitutional theme. They could have been sitting pretty right now. AV, new boundaries and a co-operative coalition partner.

    Huge strategic mistake.
    We'll be supporting STV come 2025.

    It has been written elsewhere, that if Scotland votes for Independence next year, the Tories supporting FPTP might not look such a bad thing as 40 Labour MPs are wiped out overnight.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    tim said:

    @Jonathan

    AV, new boundaries and a co-operative coalition partner.

    Huge strategic mistake.


    Plus they could relax about UKIP.

    But George Osborne is a Master Strategist, did you not know?

    He is, tim.

    One of only three AAA rated Chancellors left in the world.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Jonathan said:

    Surely 33% in agreement is enough to prove Maggie is greatest peacetime PM. If you list all the peacetime PMs and ask the same question of them individually who on earth is going to score more than 33% on a agree/disagree question?

    Was Thatcher a peacetime PM if the Falklands War was her defining moment?

    Doesn't that rule out your Tony too, given the number of illegal wars he launched?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Jonathan said:

    Surely 33% in agreement is enough to prove Maggie is greatest peacetime PM. If you list all the peacetime PMs and ask the same question of them individually who on earth is going to score more than 33% on a agree/disagree question?

    Was Thatcher a peacetime PM if the Falklands War was her defining moment?

    Her core achievement was rescuing the British economy.

    But her military efforts were critical to achieving global peace.

    Once the world's superpowers saw how she handled the Falklands, they agreed to disarm, the Warsaw Pact broke up and its constituent countries all abandoned communism.

    So Maggie was a warrior queen as well as a deterrent to war and a force for world peace.

    Just rejoice in that news, Jonathan.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @TheScreamingEagles


    It has been written elsewhere, that if Scotland votes for Independence next year, the Tories supporting FPTP might not look such a bad thing as 40 Labour MPs are wiped out overnight.


    Not going to happen though, instead Cameron and Osborne will look like a pair of amateurs.
    Who can amusingly be booted out despite winning the popular vote.
    Still, they'll have a few decades to ponder it.

    But what will happen is the Scots will reject independence then return tens of SNP MPs to Westminster to negotiate devo max.

    Not good for Miliband; perfect for Cameron. George's master strategy.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:

    George's master strategy.

    That's surely too crap a strategy even for George, Avery?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:

    George's master strategy.

    That's surely too crap a strategy even for George, Avery?
    I am only authorised to release the headline details.

    If you were seeing what I am seeing then you would recognise it is a subtle and clever plan.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    If you were seeing what I am seeing then you would recognise it is a subtle and clever plan.

    If I was on what you were on I would probably be betting on it ;)

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Avery

    Fancy a bet on the number of SNP MPs?

    (A simple no will do rather than four paragraphs of Charles-like pseudo scientific excuses)

    I am open to the idea.

    Just give me the time to consult with James Kelly and Easterross then average the figures.

    P.S. And none of this Charles's "pseudo-scientific excuses" nonsense. You went quieter than a mouse under Plato's floorboards on the last two occasions I offered you a bet.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @tim

    A holiday villa in Sitges would probably be appropriate for a fun bet.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    @tim

    A holiday villa in Sitges would probably be appropriate for a fun bet.

    I know someone with an empty villa in Marbella. The previous tenant left in a hurry and we might be able to negotiate a good deal.

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    "Public attitudes to her are apparently contradictory, with a majority agreeing both that she was “the most divisive prime minister this country has had” and that “Britain today needs more ‘conviction politicians’ like Margaret Thatcher”"

    Anyone who thinks that that is a contradiction is a silly lefty anarchist wishy-washy militant pro-consensus divisive muddle-headed enemy-within.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Plato said:

    This is wonderful - David Dimbley on Panorama - I assume the canned laughter is a relic from a later TV outtakes prog

    He's wearing an American tie!

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "I think it's unlikely that Labour would have won an election in either October 1978 or October 1979"

    The polls from autumn 1978 suggest that, at the very least, it's unlikely that the Tories would have won an overall majority, and with the popularity of Callaghan the chances are that Labour would have been the largest single party.

    If Labour had won the no-confidence vote in 1979 it's unlikely they would have carried on until October. More probably there would have been an election in June, and absolutely nothing would have been different.
This discussion has been closed.