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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes finds just one in three saying that Maggie was “Brit

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    My favourite SeanT on PB phrase so far has to be, of course, "Flatulent Pomposities".

    I can't remember what it was in relation to, though.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Mick_Pork said:

    And you still clearly don't understand the difference between PR and marketing.

    And why am I not surprised?

    The context of the quote is crystal clear and no amount of inept PR can possibly deflect away from that fact. Why am I not surprised you are still flailing away amusingly and obliviously trying?



    Pork

    Let me help.

    "I am a pig".

    That is advertising.

    "There is a guy called Pork who posts on PB".

    That is PR.

    Got it?
  • Ed Miliband is being told to look beyond the Selfish public sector.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/13/david-blunketts-vision-nation-under-labour
  • @TheScreamingEagles so the Times told you the false info about Denis's award being given two weeks after the resignation honours were announced because of the delay due to the Queens necessary involvement? Sounds like a very poorly researched article to me.

    Okay, that's your opinion on it.
  • Latest Com Res - Over 65s Labour 19%, Tory 33% UKIP 21% Lib/Dem 10%

    p9 http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_April_2013.pdf
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    AveryLP said:



    The press will allow UKIP to grow unmolested until the Euros, then they will kill them.

    Immediately after the 2014 Euros, if not before, attention will firmly be on Scotland. UKIP will be irrelevant.

  • AndyJS said:

    My favourite SeanT on PB phrase so far has to be, of course, "Flatulent Pomposities".

    I can't remember what it was in relation to, though.

    My favourite SeanT phrase is "Gangsta Sporran"
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Good evening, everyone.

    Pre-race piece for China is here: http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/china-pre-race.html

    Don't forget, the start time is 8am.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013
    AveryLP said:

    Pork

    Let me help.

    "I am a pig".

    No, let ME help, Seth O Logue.

    Lansley is not PM.

    You tipped him to be PM during your embarrassing attempts to positively spin his NHS reforms debacle.

    Therefore anything you have to say on the subject of spin and PR is admittedly hilarious but of no value whatsoever.

    Got it?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    The press will allow UKIP to grow unmolested until the Euros, then they will kill them.

    I dont think anyone expects UKIP to poll at current levels at the next GE (though Sam has a few bets with me and others on them getting into double digits) but it's not difficult to see them doing a lot better than 2010 and there comes a level (5%? 6% higher?) when they start costing the Tories more than a small handful of seats.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    edited April 2013

    Latest Com Res - Over 65s Labour 19%, Tory 33% UKIP 21% Lib/Dem 10%

    p9 http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_April_2013.pdf

    Labour clearly have a problem with pensioners, but like all problems it's an opportunity. I expect that Tory lead is soft. If Labour could chip away here the Tories would really be out of the race.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited April 2013
    Jonathan said:

    Latest Com Res - Over 65s Labour 19%, Tory 33% UKIP 21% Lib/Dem 10%

    p9 http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_April_2013.pdf

    Labour clearly have a problem with pensioners, but like all problems it's an opportunity. I expect that Tory lead is soft. If Labour could chip away here the Tories would really be out of the race.
    I think I'm reading far too much into subsamples trying to spot a trend or pattern.

    Right, I have a train set to play with.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Jonathan said:

    AveryLP said:



    The press will allow UKIP to grow unmolested until the Euros, then they will kill them.

    Immediately after the 2014 Euros, if not before, attention will firmly be on Scotland. UKIP will be irrelevant.

    The press (outside Scotland) are not particularly interested in the Scottish referendum. They have discounted a victory for "No" and will do as little as possible to aid the Scots self-harming.

    Clipping Farage's wings will be seen as a far more pressing task.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    @TheScreamingEagles so the Times told you the false info about Denis's award being given two weeks after the resignation honours were announced because of the delay due to the Queens necessary involvement? Sounds like a very poorly researched article to me.

    The London Gazette recorded the Thatcher baronetcy as gazetted on 11th Dec with precedence to the 7th Dec :

    http://www.london-gazette.co.uk/issues/52360/pages/19066
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2013

    Ed Miliband is being told to look beyond the Selfish public sector.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/13/david-blunketts-vision-nation-under-labour

    "In other words, replacing the politics of Conservative division with a morally more superior and a politically more cohesive engagement."

    more superior? As opposed to less superior?

    The Trafalgar Square demo looks a bit damp...and sparse..
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @TheScreamingEagles my opinion is based on the fact that it is incorrect! And I've given you plenty of evidence to back that up. You've given me an almost useless link to the NYT and what you remember of a Times article. The one use of the NYT article is to confirm my assertion that Denis was honoured two weeks before the resignation honours list. What's your opinion, given this new (to you) evidence?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    If Owen Jones wished for a photo to come back and haunt him - its this one today.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHwAvugCEAAsO96.jpg:large as he arrives in Trafalgar Sq - nice leather seats and a bottle of bubbly... and is that wooden trim on the door?

    Very Hyacinth Bucket.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Jonathan said:



    Simply says the blues aren't doing enough for people with families. And they aren't.

    I think the Tories have targeted families quite enough.

    yeah because endless borrowing to bankrupt their kids is so much better.

  • I would guess that legislation accounts for much more of that price rise than privatisation.

    There could be an argument that one level of pricing (i.e. this is what you pay, like it or lump it) is a better level of service, because people don't have to read and understand anything.

    I can't see how telecoms could be worse. Are they suggesting that if mobile phones (for example) were run for 'the people' rather than by nasty money grabbing private businesses, the cost and features provided would be improved?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    AveryLP said:



    The press (outside Scotland) are not particularly interested in the Scottish referendum. They have discounted a victory for "No" and will do as little as possible to aid the Scots self-harming.

    I fully expect that in 2014 it will get a ton of press. 2013 is a quiet political year. The calm before the storm.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    The findings on privatisation are utterly devastating for PB Tory orthodoxy.

    Are you sure? For one thing, it lumps together several different utilities. Secondly, what do they mean by 'better level of service'? Many people would answer assuming cost, and cost, especially for gas and electric, have increased massively. It is often hard to see a more expensive service as a better service.

    I would guess that legislation accounts for much more of that price rise than privatisation.
    As one would probably have to be 55+ to remember and be personally involved in dealing with pre-79 nationalised utilities, opinions on how well run they were should only be valid for those above that age.

    Bearing in mind that prices are set by the regulator, and these do restrict the amount of money available for customer service, we do only have partial privatisation.
  • p.s. Just heard that MT has been in hell for three days and shut down four furnaces so far!
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    @JackW precisely, two weeks before the resignation honours list. Thanks for further evidence backing that up.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    edited April 2013
    @Fox "The restyling now is different, so we have Georges Mockney, Tony Blairs Estuary English and Chukas amusing British Obama restyling. It all reminds me of the eighties Heineken advert:"

    One of Paul Weiland's very early works. He became one of the UK's most awarded commercial directors (and made a few features which never quite reached the standard of his commercials). Thanks for the memory

    PS. I'm pretty sure he still does the Gary Lineker Walkers crisp ads.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited April 2013
    This is wonderful - David Dimbley on Panorama - I assume the canned laughter is a relic from a later TV outtakes prog

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4Zs9iOlO3o
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    45% support either Conservative or UKIP: the same percentage that voted for Maggie in 1979.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    AndyJS said:

    45% support either Conservative or UKIP: the same percentage that voted for Maggie in 1979.

    Vs 46% for the centre left.

    Isn't amazing how politics naturally seems to balance out. There is nothing to say it has to be this way, but it almost always is. Odd when you think about it.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    The press will allow UKIP to grow unmolested until the Euros, then they will kill them.

    I dont think anyone expects UKIP to poll at current levels at the next GE (though Sam has a few bets with me and others on them getting into double digits) but it's not difficult to see them doing a lot better than 2010 and there comes a level (5%? 6% higher?) when they start costing the Tories more than a small handful of seats.
    I agree that once you have allowed the weeds to grow it is then difficult to recover the garden.

    On that basis, I fully expect UKIP to poll higher in 2015 than 2010. One other increasing trend will be UKIP taking over BNP's votes and repositioning itself to attract voters from all parties.

    Ironically, they will seek to attract the traditional Thatcherite blue collar worker lost back to Labour in 1997 whom they believe have now been deserted by the big three parties. The mainstream Tory press will help them with such repositioning as they move to isolate UKIP as BNP lite.

    So what will UKIP's residual level? You may be right at 5%-6% but this will be less damaging to the Tories than you think because they won't all be wearing blazers.

    2015 will be all about whether to give the current coalition a second term to fix the economy. It won't be about the EU.

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited April 2013
    Plato said:

    If Owen Jones wished for a photo to come back and haunt him - its this one today.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHwAvugCEAAsO96.jpg:large as he arrives in Trafalgar Sq - nice leather seats and a bottle of bubbly... and is that wooden trim on the door?

    Very Hyacinth Bucket.


    the pic is taken from a BBC report about the budget
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17487007

    it has nothing to do with Trafalgar Sq today
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Plato

    That video is a great metaphor for Britain in the 1970s.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. JS, same percentage but an enormous churn in the actual voters themselves. 34 years is quite some time.

    It's also worth mentioning that UKIP, whilst seen as a Conservative problem, also take votes from the other parties in substantial measure. It'll be interesting to see whether UKIP withers, whether it replaces the Lib Dems as the party of protest or whether we end up with a four party system.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    Advertising/PR

    If you look at the soldier on the Queen's right-that's advertising. Firing him as soon as the photo was released-that's PR.


    http://0.tqn.com/d/urbanlegends/1/0/A/7/queen_and_soldiers.jpg
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    So what will UKIP's residual level? You may be right at 5%-6% but this will be less damaging to the Tories than you think because they won't all be wearing blazers.

    It will be more damaging than in 2010. Given how difficult it is to see the Tories gaining a shedload of Labour seats this just makes Dave's job tougher.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Grandiose said:

    The truth is clear: the death of the most decisive (and I would say most influential) politician of this generation and there has been almost no effect on the poll, probably none at all. Yet more evidence that almost nothing influences British public opinion.

    Grandiose, you're right that we far too readily think that whatever is going on is going to shift opinion. But in this case it wasn't clear why it should anyway. "I really liked Maggie so I'm going to vote Tory, not Labour"? "I think Maggie was really UKIP so I'll vote for them even though I was going to vote Tory"? Hard to follow the reasoning. Obviously different if she'd been currently in the leadership, but people aren't really reading across to today's politics, except in a vague "they don't make them like that any more" way.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Ed Miliband is being told to look beyond the Selfish public sector.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/13/david-blunketts-vision-nation-under-labour

    "In other words, replacing the politics of Conservative division with a morally more superior and a politically more cohesive engagement."

    more superior? As opposed to less superior?

    The Trafalgar Square demo looks a bit damp...and sparse..
    The Millwall fans will be disappointed, they've had a little sparring session this afternoon in readiness.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Indeed, Mr. Neil. Farage does appear to be preparing for a Pyrrhic victory in 2015.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    AveryLP said:

    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    The press will allow UKIP to grow unmolested until the Euros, then they will kill them.

    I dont think anyone expects UKIP to poll at current levels at the next GE (though Sam has a few bets with me and others on them getting into double digits) but it's not difficult to see them doing a lot better than 2010 and there comes a level (5%? 6% higher?) when they start costing the Tories more than a small handful of seats.
    I agree that once you have allowed the weeds to grow it is then difficult to recover the garden.

    On that basis, I fully expect UKIP to poll higher in 2015 than 2010. One other increasing trend will be UKIP taking over BNP's votes and repositioning itself to attract voters from all parties.

    Ironically, they will seek to attract the traditional Thatcherite blue collar worker lost back to Labour in 1997 whom they believe have now been deserted by the big three parties. The mainstream Tory press will help them with such repositioning as they move to isolate UKIP as BNP lite.

    So what will UKIP's residual level? You may be right at 5%-6% but this will be less damaging to the Tories than you think because they won't all be wearing blazers.

    2015 will be all about whether to give the current coalition a second term to fix the economy. It won't be about the EU.

    You couldn't be more wrong.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2013
    @Morris_Dancer

    The only problem with that way of looking at things is that a small minority of LDs are fairly right-wing and would prefer the Tories over Labour. Not many of course but there might be enough to take the centre/centre-right figure over 50%.
  • Roger said:

    Advertising/PR

    If you look at the soldier on the Queen's right-that's advertising. Firing him as soon as the photo was released-that's PR.


    http://0.tqn.com/d/urbanlegends/1/0/A/7/queen_and_soldiers.jpg

    What is it with people sending me pictures of men's nads today.

    NSFW

    https://twitter.com/cfcdbanks/status/260029856002211840/photo/1
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    AndyJS said:

    @Morris_Dancer

    The only problem with that way of looking at things is that a small minority of LDs are fairly right-wing and would prefer the Tories over Labour. Not many of course but there might be enough to take the centre/centre-right figure over 50%.

    That 50% would hardly be coherent, containing as it would Nigel Farage and Ken Clarke.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Jonathan, slightly unreasonable point, given Ken Clarke is almost the entire EU-phile wing of the Conservative Party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Mr. Jonathan, slightly unreasonable point, given Ken Clarke is almost the entire EU-phile wing of the Conservative Party.

    If you think UKIP, Tories and Orange book LDs agree on Europe you are bonkers.

    BTW Appreciate your F1 stuff.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,970
    TSE. Very funny.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited April 2013

    Mr. Jonathan, slightly unreasonable point, given Ken Clarke is almost the entire EU-phile wing of the Conservative Party.


    Depends how you define it. As Farage and UKIP will define it since Cammie wants to stay in the EU as does the rest of the tory leadership, the tory party's main funders and the majority of the tory party MPs. To them that makes them EU-phile.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Unite General Secretary election results

    Len McCluskey 144,570 votes
    Jerry Hicks 79,819

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Roger said:

    Advertising/PR

    If you look at the soldier on the Queen's right-that's advertising. Firing him as soon as the photo was released-that's PR.


    http://0.tqn.com/d/urbanlegends/1/0/A/7/queen_and_soldiers.jpg

    What is it with people sending me pictures of men's nads today.

    NSFW

    https://twitter.com/cfcdbanks/status/260029856002211840/photo/1
    Howay the Nads! Is a great headline - especially for a toon supporter, tho I still think "dancing on grave" "Hitler" and "NHS boob job" in one headline is in a league of its oŵn...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Mr. Jonathan, not sure I mentioned the Lib Dems... I think you're mixing up what I and someone else wrote.

    And thanks. Even if you're not interested in betting/tipping we're always happy to have more comments and thoughts over on the pb2 threads, and whether you post any or not I'm glad you find my posts here and articles there of interest.

    This is one of those weekends which is great as a spectator but difficult as a bettor. The race should have a fascinating divergence of strategy but it's very hard to try and pick a winner. I hope it lives up to its billing (and that I wake up in time to watch the start).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    @Morris_Dancer

    I have an old school friend who works for Toro Rosso going out with a girl who works for Mercedes. Try to keep across it. Your stuff is good for that, was even able to talk intelligently about Lotus. So ta.
  • Mr. Jonathan, not sure I mentioned the Lib Dems... I think you're mixing up what I and someone else wrote.

    And thanks. Even if you're not interested in betting/tipping we're always happy to have more comments and thoughts over on the pb2 threads, and whether you post any or not I'm glad you find my posts here and articles there of interest.

    This is one of those weekends which is great as a spectator but difficult as a bettor. The race should have a fascinating divergence of strategy but it's very hard to try and pick a winner. I hope it lives up to its billing (and that I wake up in time to watch the start).

    Hopefully Hamilton can win tomorrow.

    Will be kerching time
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    There was a time when these elections attracted attention. Hardly a ringing endorsement for Len but he was never in much danger of losing.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Hondootedly
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    edited April 2013
    Ha, one wonders whether they're trying to prise secrets out of one another :p

    You're very welcome. And if you happen to get an inside line (they'd probably be happy to share rumours about teams other than their own) do feel free to give me a nudge and a wink.

    Mr. Eagles, I'd prefer a Vettel or Rosberg victory, or at least for Vettel to get close enough for a 2.5 hedge to be matched. I'm hoping he can pass Button off the line, and then he'll lead after about lap 10 when the top 7 have all pitted.

    Mind you, I discovered recently (slightly worryingly) that I'd backed Hamilton for the title at about 13.5. Not sure when I did that.

    Oh, and I backed Ferrari for the Constructors at 3.95 recently, but that is *not* a tip.

    Edited extra bit: Damn. Vettel's out to 7.8 now. Oh well.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    Unite General Secretary election results

    Len McCluskey 144,570 votes
    Jerry Hicks 79,819

    That's a pity. I voted McCluskey last time on the grounds that he would cause the most bother for the government.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    So what will UKIP's residual level? You may be right at 5%-6% but this will be less damaging to the Tories than you think because they won't all be wearing blazers.

    It will be more damaging than in 2010. Given how difficult it is to see the Tories gaining a shedload of Labour seats this just makes Dave's job tougher.
    We'll see, Neil. At the moment I forsee 2015 being a big no change election. The only real change may be the SNP as an alternative or additional Coalition partner to the Tories (and LDs).
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Watching the 1979 election on BBC Parliament today, I thought how often people speculate what would have happened if Callaghan had called an election in autumn 1978, but rarely about if he hadn't lost the confidence vote. Had he held on to autumn 1979 would it have made much difference to the result?
  • Ha, one wonders whether they're trying to prise secrets out of one another :p

    You're very welcome. And if you happen to get an inside line (they'd probably be happy to share rumours about teams other than their own) do feel free to give me a nudge and a wink.

    Mr. Eagles, I'd prefer a Vettel or Rosberg victory, or at least for Vettel to get close enough for a 2.5 hedge to be matched. I'm hoping he can pass Button off the line, and then he'll lead after about lap 10 when the top 7 have all pitted.

    Mind you, I discovered recently (slightly worryingly) that I'd backed Hamilton for the title at about 13.5. Not sure when I did that.

    Oh, and I backed Ferrari for the Constructors at 3.95 recently, but that is *not* a tip.

    Edited extra bit: Damn. Vettel's out to 7.8 now. Oh well.

    I backed Lewis to win at least one race this season.

    His decision to join Mercedes has to be the most inspired decision since Caesar crossed the Rubicon with just one legion.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,945
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Dodrade.

    Anyway, I am off for the night.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433
    Off-topic:

    A Lionair plane crashed this morning after undershooting on final approach to Denpasar in Indonesia. It crash-landed in the sea. Thankfully all passengers and crew escaped, although there were some minor injuries.

    Lionair is a controversial airline that is expanding rapidly - it has ordered a large number of planes for $24 billion from Airbus just last month, and yet is banned from flying in the EU.

    http://avherald.com/h?article=460aeabb&opt=0

    They were all very, very lucky. Various causes are being rumoured on the Internet, from engine failure to wind shear.

    The plane was brand new - it had only 146 hours in the air, I believe including all the post-construction test flights.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Bit of a kerfuffle between the BBC's Panorama and the LSE over apparently journalistic exploitation of LSE students visiting North Korea.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    @Neil

    Jane's blog is still active. I saw you were worried. 2 Reading connected people are on the Labour SE Euro shortlist.
  • SeanT said:

    Startling Times Thatcher-fact: despite being elected president of the Oxford University Tory Association, "as a woman" she was prevented from debating in the Oxford Union.

    Stunning.

    Oxford union = Mass debaters ;-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    SeanT said:

    Startling Times Thatcher-fact: despite being elected president of the Oxford University Tory Association, "as a woman" she was prevented from debating in the Oxford Union.

    Stunning.

    Shocking more like. Why would anyone want to debate at the Oxford Union?

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    Phew! I thought Martin may have obtained an injunction against her blog ;)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    SeanT said:

    Startling Times Thatcher-fact: despite being elected president of the Oxford University Tory Association, "as a woman" she was prevented from debating in the Oxford Union.

    Stunning.

    Women were allowed to attend and participate in debates long before they were allowed to become Members. Women's membership was introduced in 1963 making 2013 the 50th anniversary.

    In 1926 the Oxford Union passed the motion that "Women's Colleges should be levelled to the ground". So much ground had been travelled by the sixties.

    Still, in 1979, the Carlton Club still didn't admit women as Members and Thatcher's election as Leader of the Conservative Party caused them to amend their constitution to allow her in. Previously all leaders were automatically granted honorary membership.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Neil

    I guess we won't see her name among his endorsements (he's the former chair of Reading Labour)
    http://www.johnhowarth.com/index.php/make-john-no-1/were-supporting-john-howarth-for-mep/

    Ah, Lewisham Deptford is shortlisting next week IIRC. So when Dora will finally be free, she can move to somewhere else...Brent Central next?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mr. Jonathan, slightly unreasonable point, given Ken Clarke is almost the entire EU-phile wing of the Conservative Party.

    Depends how you define it. As Farage and UKIP will define it Cammie wants to stay in the EU as does the rest of the tory leadership, the tory party's main funders and the majority of the tory party MPs. To them that makes them EU-phile.
    When given the option, only 81 Conservative MPs voted in favour of an EU referendum.

    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2011/10/the-79-conservative-mps-who-voted-for-a-referendum.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Jonathan said:

    AndyJS said:

    45% support either Conservative or UKIP: the same percentage that voted for Maggie in 1979.

    Vs 46% for the centre left.

    Isn't amazing how politics naturally seems to balance out. There is nothing to say it has to be this way, but it almost always is. Odd when you think about it.
    I think there is a subtle and powerful force at work in that pattern. Most parties want to get a majority for their favourite ideas more than they want to get a huge majority. So they start off saying what they really want to do. If they perceive that it's not sufficient (i.e. they fall way behind in the polls or lose an election heavily), they tack to prevailing winds siufficiently to put themselves back into contention. Since the process is painful (giving up cherished beliefs) they do it as little as necessary, i.e. only enough to bring them back to the 50-50 mark.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    AveryLP said:


    Women were allowed to attend and participate in debates long before they were allowed to become Members.

    Tricky fellows these women, Avery. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    AveryLP said:


    Women were allowed to attend and participate in debates long before they were allowed to become Members.

    Tricky fellows these women, Avery. Give them an inch and they'll take a mile.
    That's a bit sexist, Neil. I have always found women to be fine in their place.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    dodrade said:

    Watching the 1979 election on BBC Parliament today, I thought how often people speculate what would have happened if Callaghan had called an election in autumn 1978, but rarely about if he hadn't lost the confidence vote. Had he held on to autumn 1979 would it have made much difference to the result?

    I think it's unlikely that Labour would have won an election in either October 1978 or October 1979. Probably if the election had been earlier Thatcher would have had a smaller majority, and if Callaghan had managed to hang on until October 1979 maybe memories of the disastrous winter would have faded a bit but I doubt Labour would have won. And if they had it's not clear they could have formed a coherent government - a member of the Callaghan cabinet is said to have described the party at that time as a cauldron of hate, and he or she wasn't far wrong. The party was consumed by factional infighting and many of its members were much more interested in that than the business of government.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    @tim

    Have I stumbled in to "Carry On Politicalbetting"? Clearly SeanT is Sid James, but is Plato Hattie Jacques or Barbara Windsor?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    BTW. Lots of photos of Thatcher in the press of late. Something different about the one on the Observer front page. Quite enigmatic.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/323164486150275072/photo/1
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Disagree on utilities - the faults of the nationalised gas and electricity boards were considerable compared with today.

    Those who were able to vote in the 70s had a good idea why Labour were left trailing behind Mrs Thatcher.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2013
    BBC versus LSE.

    The rumour is that to film Panorama programme due to be shown Monday, BBC journalists used forged student & staff credentials to get onboard a trip by LSE students to the the Land of the Kims.

    The LSE says they had no knowledge this was done and that it could have put their students at risk. The BBC says they knew what the deal was.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited April 2013
    "Barely a year after Nicolas Sarkozy left office vowing never to return, polls suggest he would easily beat incumbent Francois Hollande."

    Typical voters remorse I guess. If he's scraped through presumably he'd be almost as unpopular as Hollande. Not that Sarkozy's former party have covered themselves in glory since he left.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22133911
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Jonathan said:

    @tim

    Have I stumbled in to "Carry On Politicalbetting"? Clearly SeanT is Sid James, but is Plato Hattie Jacques or Barbara Windsor?

    Rumours have been floated taht she is more like Barbara Windsor !

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    dodrade said:

    Watching the 1979 election on BBC Parliament today, I thought how often people speculate what would have happened if Callaghan had called an election in autumn 1978, but rarely about if he hadn't lost the confidence vote. Had he held on to autumn 1979 would it have made much difference to the result?

    I think it's unlikely that Labour would have won an election in either October 1978 or October 1979. Probably if the election had been earlier Thatcher would have had a smaller majority, and if Callaghan had managed to hang on until October 1979 maybe memories of the disastrous winter would have faded a bit but I doubt Labour would have won. And if they had it's not clear they could have formed a coherent government - a member of the Callaghan cabinet is said to have described the party at that time as a cauldron of hate, and he or she wasn't far wrong. The party was consumed by factional infighting and many of its members were much more interested in that than the business of government.
    Labour had a very reasonable chance to win in October 78. The polls had narrowed considerably and Callaghan himself was respected. He would have won the campaign. After the Winter of Discontent it was about minimising the defeat , very similar to 2010 but in 2010 the Labour organisation was far superior. Labour produced a 1992 result with 1983 votes.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @dr_spin

    'Disagree on utilities - the faults of the nationalised gas and electricity boards were considerable compared with today.'

    Assume the question was limited to people over 50,who have actually experienced both nationalized & privatized utilities,otherwise the numbers are worthless.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    BBC vs LSE

    LSE and also the North Koreans have asked for the Panorama program on Monday to be pulled.

  • shipmate1shipmate1 Posts: 37
    I'm currently enjoying watching Saints on football first playing football Arsenal fans dream off. How's the golf going? I have Jim Furyk @ 20/1 and Marc Leishman @ 33/1
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sounds as though the Trafalgar Sq demo has gone off ok - except the BBC's Tom Symonds: "Very annoyed to be waiting for my cameraman at Tommy's A+E - he didn't deserve the bottle someone threw at him in Trafalgar Square"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    "The silencing of the Munchkins must rank as one of the most inept acts of censorship Britain has seen. "

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/apr/13/ding-dong-song-thatcher-bbc-china
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Carlotta

    Tommy's A+E is not a fun place to be on a Saturday evening. Long wait in store!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ST reporting "Speaker's Wife Snubs Thatcher Funeral". No doubt relief all round!
  • Paywall

    SALLY BERCOW, the wife of the Commons Speaker, has rejected an invitation to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher, a leader whom she believes ushered in a “very greedy and selfish society”.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited April 2013
    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%,
  • 61% believe the former Tory leader left behind a more divided nation when she was ousted in 1990 (16% say more united, no difference 12%, DK 11%)

    Yet 46% see her as having been a good or great prime minister — an accolade given by only 12% to John Major, 34% to Tony Blair and 10% to Gordon Brown.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
  • Many of Thatcher’s policies continue to enjoy strong support: a large majority (68%) thought she was right to use force to retake the Falkland Islands, while 55% agree with her decision to face down the trade unions.

    Her success in winning a rebate on Britain’s contribution to the European Union was applauded by 68%, while 60% supported her move to give council house tenants the right to buy their homes. Cutting the top rate of income tax was backed by 46% of respondents and opposed by 36%.

    There is, however, little enthusiasm for erecting a statue to Thatcher in London, with just 29% in favour and 50% against. While 42% think a ceremonial funeral — one step below a state funeral — is appropriate, 43% do not think she should have been given either.

    But parties to “celebrate” Thatcher’s death have been met with widespread revulsion: just 14% think them acceptable and they are condemned by 75%, including a clear majority of Labour supporters.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    surbiton said:

    dodrade said:

    Watching the 1979 election on BBC Parliament today, I thought how often people speculate what would have happened if Callaghan had called an election in autumn 1978, but rarely about if he hadn't lost the confidence vote. Had he held on to autumn 1979 would it have made much difference to the result?

    I think it's unlikely that Labour would have won an election in either October 1978 or October 1979. Probably if the election had been earlier Thatcher would have had a smaller majority, and if Callaghan had managed to hang on until October 1979 maybe memories of the disastrous winter would have faded a bit but I doubt Labour would have won. And if they had it's not clear they could have formed a coherent government - a member of the Callaghan cabinet is said to have described the party at that time as a cauldron of hate, and he or she wasn't far wrong. The party was consumed by factional infighting and many of its members were much more interested in that than the business of government.
    Labour had a very reasonable chance to win in October 78. The polls had narrowed considerably and Callaghan himself was respected. He would have won the campaign. After the Winter of Discontent it was about minimising the defeat , very similar to 2010 but in 2010 the Labour organisation was far superior. Labour produced a 1992 result with 1983 votes.
    Didn't the Tories win in 1992?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2013
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Once you've got Mark and Carol Thatcher at an event it's difficult to lower the standard, maybe she's keeping her powder dry.

    I don't think she can afford the taxi to St Paul's, tm. Carter Ruck fees are not cheap and there is a two stage High Court libel case to fight.

    Perhaps Lord Macalpine could offer to represent her at the funeral?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,956
    edited April 2013
    There's enough in the YouGov polling on Lady T for her opponents and her supporters to use to confirm their views.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The other thing that has not been mentioned is that in terms of climate change advocacy she was the first PM to do it.In that sense Ed Miliband's Climate Change Act is very much in her tradition.
    That is the way Ed should go-he will attract anger for it but he will get it anyway-the statesman following in the Thatcher tradition/
    It took a bit of research but this is how she is seen by the native american community and she was a bit of a legal advocate in her time too.
    First lesson of the miners's strike-stop hating.Hate the hate more.Move on.There are many ways to skin a cat.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308705/Inside-North-Korea-A-rare-dispatch-deep-lunatic-rogue-state-enslaved-Zombie-Sons.html

    The documentary that has caused a row between the BBC, the London School of Economics and the North Koreans
  • Jonathan said:

    Tonight's yougov

    Labour leads the Tories 42% to 31%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% and the UK Independence party on 11%, little changed from recent weeks.

    YouGov/The Sunil on Sunday:

    Government 43%
    Labour 42%
    Why do you keep adding the two coalition parties? It's silly. I fear you might be disappointed come election day.
    You used to say the same to Gabble when he combined the Lab and LD score and Baxtered that before the General election right?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Paywall

    SALLY BERCOW, the wife of the Commons Speaker, has rejected an invitation to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher, a leader whom she believes ushered in a “very greedy and selfish society”.

    Of which she is a prime example.

    Do people like her have no self awareness whatsoever?

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    tim said:

    @Sunil

    Why don't you write a guest post on the Lib Dem/Con marginals.

    "The government party will win"

    There, saved you a job.

    Why don't you write a post on how the NHS and education are currently performing under Labour in Wales? Truth a bit difficult for you is it?

This discussion has been closed.