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  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    SeanT said:

    Anazina said:

    There's a party founded on pb which isn't obsessed with Europe etc that is waiting to step forward when the moment is ripe...
    I really should register the 'Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, Not Obsessed With Europe and Gays Tory Party' with the Electoral Commission.

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    Huh, I missed your conversion to soft brexit
    He has in fact converted to Remain. At least that was his position mid-Barolo last weekend.
    lol. Yes. Or nearly. I think at some point mid-claret last week I reluctantly decided Remain was better than No Deal.

    For once, however, I do not think I am unusual in my bipolar swings. Most thinking people I know (apart from the ideological nutters at both extremes) swing between Leave and Remain or Soft or Hard Brexit, or Oh my God We're Doomed to Shut up We'll be Fine, hour by hour.

    It's an entirely human reaction to a hideously unpredictable, even chaotic political development, which has the potential to change many lives, indeed alter history.
    Yeah, people vacillate. Even more grist to your mill that a moderate path should be chosen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    While Schengen is optional for EFTA countries, FOM is, as you say, not optional.
    I personally think it would be the best long-term destination, but agree that after the Leave campaign we had, it's completely incompatible with the expressed view of the people and why most (not all, of course, but a big majority) of Leave voters made the vote they did:
    image
    If that was the case No Deal would be comfortably ahead of Remain in the polls rather than trailing by 10%.

    The median of most voters is Leave but only with a trade deal, those who are obsessed about leaving the Customs Union and doing our own trade deals and kicking all the immigrants out are a minority.

    In any case there has been a net reduction in Eastern European migration to the UK since the Leave vote anyway

    'Around 45,000 people from ‘EU8’ states - which include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic - came to Britain in the 12 months to the end of March.
    During the same period, 47,000 from EU8 countries left the UK, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).'

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1007650/brexit-news-immigration-eu-uk-net-migration-eu8
  • HYUFD said:

    There's a party founded on pb which isn't obsessed with Europe etc that is waiting to step forward when the moment is ripe...
    I really should register the 'Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, Not Obsessed With Europe and Gays Tory Party' with the Electoral Commission.
    It is called 'the Orange Book LDs'
    No it isn't.

    It is the only type of Toryism to have won a majority in the last 26 years.
    Ironic isn't it, same point needs making to the corbynistas about the hated moderate wing of their side of the spectrum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    There's a party founded on pb which isn't obsessed with Europe etc that is waiting to step forward when the moment is ripe...
    I really should register the 'Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, Not Obsessed With Europe and Gays Tory Party' with the Electoral Commission.
    It is called 'the Orange Book LDs'
    No it isn't.

    It is the only type of Toryism to have won a majority in the last 26 years.
    Having a referendum on leaving the EU as party of its manifesto
  • HYUFD said:

    There's a party founded on pb which isn't obsessed with Europe etc that is waiting to step forward when the moment is ripe...
    I really should register the 'Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, Not Obsessed With Europe and Gays Tory Party' with the Electoral Commission.
    It is called 'the Orange Book LDs'
    No it isn't.

    It is the only type of Toryism to have won a majority in the last 26 years.
    Because the only type of Labour opposition was Ed's.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    SeanT said:

    This is hardly news.

    TMay is on the tightrope.

    As a headline, Tightrope Walker Might Fall Off is like Angry Dog Bites Nervous Postman.

    More like:

    Angry Dog Growls Menacingly At Nervous Postman
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Tony said:

    Anazina said:


    Crap lead in the Sunday Times: Failed flouncer DD urges other quarterwits to join him

    Next.
    Read the whole lead, interesting new nugget from Shipman, Ruth threatening to resign if Northern Ireland screwed by May.
    Wheels beginning to come off for May.

    Night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try and extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.

    So 36% back an extended negotiation period or a second EU referendum compared to 31% backing No Deal. A further 14% back a general election Opinium tonight suggests could see May win a small overall majority
    Err - excluding Don't Knows almost 40% back No Deal in a four horse race. When the options that are not actually available (referendum, extension) are excluded and this comes down to May's sellout vs No Deal, No Deal is going to be in the lead by the time the Commons vote.
    31% is not 'almost 40%' it is less than a third. Leave got 52% so barely more than half of Leave voters back No Deal
    Total is 81%; rest don't knows; exclude the don't knows and ND is 39% I believe. So vast majority of Leave voters want No Deal and that is in a four choice race. By the time May's deal has been destroyed by the ERG, in a forced choice between May and No Deal (and those are the only two actual choices) No Deal will end up in the lead.
    So even with Don't Knows a quarter of Leave voters do not back No Deal.

    'The vast majority' of Leave voters is not enough for No Deal, you need all of them to get over 50%. On a forced choice otherwise both Remain and May Deal will beat No Deal head to head
    And a huge number of remain voters don't support another referendum.

    Remain is not an option. The only choice actually available will be May's sellout vs No Deal.

    No Deal will be in the lead by the time of the HoC vote. This will encourage the ERG to reject it and May will be defeated.
    They do if it is No Deal.

    According to ICM in order of net favourability with voters Canada is on +20%, Norway on +7%, Chequers on +5%, Remain on +1%, No Deal on an abysmal -33%.


    No Deal is the only way Remainers have a chance of reversing Brexit in a second referendum.


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Anazina said:



    I doubt you’ll get a customer. Archer is like all other Brexiteer ‘hardliners’ - all push and no piss.

    He didn't get a customer because his point does not make any sense.

    You underestimated Leavers at the referendum - you are about to learn again that principle is always more effective than fear.
    Rancid xenophobia won the referendum. The disaster that is unfolding is down to the willingness of obsessive Europhobes to throw in their lot with race-baiters.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Just because we Leavers won (narrowly) do we get to ignore the 16 million Brits who wanted to stay in Europe? No. Morally, politically, emotionally, we don't.

    And yet, we did!

    Citizens of nowhere lost. Suck it up, losers!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Scott_P said:
    “As few as”

    Tory letters stories seem to me to be grout for slow news days.

    Only X numbers are required

    ( let x>1 but <10)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Right. I need to record the third piece of my Demographics series.

    And I need to finish writing

    "2020: The Election They Wished They Had't Won"

    We won't be having an election in 2020. FTPA says five years after 2017 or quite possibly 2019 if the government falls over Brexit.
    If May gets her Withdrawal Agreement through 2/brexit-transition-period-could-extended-another-year-costing/
    Barnier is not agreeing to settle the Irish border, nor to agree an FTA. He is still saying that the backstop will be permanent until the UK accept the separation of NI in return for an FTA. Or the UK accept EEA+CU. No other options.
    May will of course agree that the UK stays in the Customs Union to get to the transition period but Barnier is moving to extend the transition period for a year so May can sell the Withdrawal Agreement Deal to enough of her backbenchers to get it through the Commons, as a backstop of staying in the Customs Union even without a time limit with an extended transition period will be less likely to be iod in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections)
    You have completely misunderstood what is being proposed.

    In the transition period, we are full members of the CU and SM. We don't 'stay in the CU to get to the transition'. The transition starts on 31 March 2019.

    The backstop, which would kick in at the end of the transition, keeps the UK in the CU only, but keeps NI in the SM as well.

    May's 'plan' is simply to extend the transition period by a year so she can say it makes it 'less likely' we will get to the backstop. This is of course nonsense, because there is no basis for a trade agreement that will avoid the backstop. It is just a way of delaying Brexit.

    But when the 'extended transition' period ends, the backstop will still kick in and will be permanent, despite May's attempts to spin it otherwise. So we will not 'leave without a deal' - we will be stuck in the CU with no way out. And we cannot be in the CU without following SM regulations.

    Summary - May is a liar and is trying to deceive people that the backstop is not permanent.
    We have to agree the CU backstop to get to the transition period.

    The backstop keeping the whole UK in the CU only kicks in if no FTA agreed during the transition period. GB would not be in the full SM even if it stayed in the CU post transition as required by the backstop.
    You keep saying “we have to agree the backstop to get to the transition period”

    That’s not true. Barnier wants us to, but it is not an immutable fact
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
  • Anazina said:

    SeanT said:

    This is hardly news.

    TMay is on the tightrope.

    As a headline, Tightrope Walker Might Fall Off is like Angry Dog Bites Nervous Postman.

    More like:

    Angry Dog Growls Menacingly At Nervous Postman
    Postman nervously considers taking on growling dog to deliver letter to 12-14 Mount Street Lower,
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Rancid xenophobia won the referendum. The disaster that is unfolding is down to the willingness of obsessive Europhobes to throw in their lot with race-baiters.

    No, Alastair, you don't understand.

    Leavers didn't vote FOR Farage, they just voted WITH him.

    See, not rancid xenophobes at all, just voted with the rancid xenophobes. Some of their best friends are European.
  • If TM goes put David Davis and JRM in charge and 'stand back'

    If they think they are good enough prove it
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If TM goes put David Davis and JRM in charge and 'stand back'

    If they think they are good enough prove it

    Come and have a go if you think you are hard (Brexit) enough...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anazina said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Yet again: Leave won by campaigning against immigration and for increased spending on the NHS. Brexit must do those two things. After that, everything else is up for discussion.

    This notion that there is some platonic ideal of Brexit inherent in the referendum ballot slip is so much nonsense. If Leavers wanted a mandate for other requirements of Brexit they should have made them a central plank of their campaign.

    Pandering to xenophobia was as catastrophic for Leave as for the country as a whole.

    Indeed. And an economic partnership without freedom of movement would be perfect. Unfortunately our partners arent interested
    Not for many. Like many other Europeans, I consider free movement a major benefit, not a cost.
    Indeed freedom of movement is a major feature, not a bug, of EU membership.
    The legitimisation of xenophobia is sadly a consequence of withdrawal.
    Wanting to manage immigration is not xenophobia
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    If TM goes put David Davis and JRM in charge and 'stand back'

    If they think they are good enough prove it

    In that order please, for betting purposes.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Just because we Leavers won (narrowly) do we get to ignore the 16 million Brits who wanted to stay in Europe? No. Morally, politically, emotionally, we don't.

    And yet, we did!

    Citizens of nowhere lost. Suck it up, losers!
    You know, if someone offers an olive branch (especially if they are on the winning side) it is commonly wise to accept it.

    Attitudes like yours, and Mr Meeks', are why Brexit might end up a fucking disaster, yet will happen nonetheless - and will also be so torrid, it will be totally irreversible.

    Embittered Remoaners are their own worst enemies. Discuss.
    It’s a disaster come what may now. The only choice now is which disaster.
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try and extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.

    So 36% back an extended negotiation period or a second EU referendum compared to 31% backing No Deal. A further 14% back a general election Opinium tonight suggests could see May win a small overall majority
    Err - excluding Don't Knows almost 40% back No Deal in a four horse race. When the options that are not actually available (referendum, extension) are excluded and this comes down to May's sellout vs No Deal, No Deal is going to be in the lead by the time the Commons vote.
    31% is not 'almost 40%' it is less than a third. Leave got 52% so barely more than half of Leave voters back No Deal
    So even with Don't Knows a quarter of Leave voters do not back No Deal.

    'The vast majority' of Leave voters is not enough for No Deal, you need all of them to get over 50%. On a forced choice otherwise both Remain and May Deal will beat No Deal head to head
    And a huge number of remain voters don't support another referendum.

    Remain is not an option. The only choice actually available will be May's sellout vs No Deal.

    No Deal will be in the lead by the time of the HoC vote. This will encourage the ERG to reject it and May will be defeated.
    They do if it is No Deal.

    According to ICM in order of net favourability with voters Canada is on +20%, Norway on +7%, Chequers on +5%, Remain on +1%, No Deal on an abysmal -33%.


    No Deal is the only way Remainers have a chance of reversing Brexit in a second referendum.


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html
    With the greatest of respect your constant quoting of arbitrary poll results is incredibly tiresome.

    Surely the last few major campaigns have all shown one thing polls taken prior to the heat of the campaign itself were all completely wrong.

    Trump/Clinton
    Remain/leave
    May/Corbyn

    All finished very differently to how the 'polls' were predicting at the start.

    In the real world no one had any idea what canada, Norway, chequers actually mean, so the percentage support for each is meaningless.

    Likewise no deal is generally assumed to mean no planes, no medicine and general economic collapse. I'm actually amazed it's polling so well :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    But you missed the most important part, EFTA is not consistent with honouring the referendum result on free movement.
    We could have done that in the EU had Blair imposed transition controls in 2004 on free movement from the new accession nations, in EFTA we can evict those after 3 months not in work or looking for work and lots of Eastern Europeans have headed home after the Leave vote anyway
    15 years ago mate

    You’ve said the same thing a hundred times or more. Try to be more interesting
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    But you missed the most important part, EFTA is not consistent with honouring the referendum result on free movement.
    We could have done that in the EU had Blair imposed transition controls in 2004 on free movement from the new accession nations, in EFTA we can evict those after 3 months not in work or looking for work and lots of Eastern Europeans have headed home after the Leave vote anyway
    15 years ago mate

    You’ve said the same thing a hundred times or more. Try to be more interesting
    It remains a pivotal point, boring or not
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Scott_P said:
    Looking at tonight's Opinium poll is only likely to reinforce that trend
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Right. I need to record the third piece of my Demographics series.

    And I need to finish writing

    "2020: The Election They Wished They Had't Won"

    We won't be having an election in 2020. FTPA says five years after 2017 or quite possibly 2019 if the government falls over Brexit.
    If May gets her Withdrawal Agreement through 2/brexit-transition-period-could-extended-another-year-costing/
    Barnier is not agreeing to settle the Irish border, nor to agree an FTA. He is still saying that the backstop will be permanent until the UK accept the separation of NI in return for an FTA. Or the UK accept EEA+CU. No other options.
    May will of course agree that the UK stays in the Customs Union to get to the transition period but Barnier is moving to extend the transition period for a year so May can sell the Withdrawal Agreement Deal to enough of her backbenchers to get it through the Commons, as a backstop of staying in the Customs Union even without a time limit with an extended transition period will be less likely to be iod in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections)
    You have completely misunderstood what is being proposed.

    In the transition period, we are full members of the CU and SM. We don't 'stay in the CU to get to the transition'. The transition starts on 31 March 2019.

    The backstop, which would kick in at the end of the transition, keeps the UK in the CU only, but keeps NI in the SM as well.

    not be in the CU without following SM regulations.

    Summary - May is a liar and is trying to deceive people that the backstop is not permanent.
    We have to agree the CU backstop to get to the transition period.

    The backstop keeping the whole UK in the CU only kicks in if no FTA agreed during the transition period. GB would not be in the full SM even if it stayed in the CU post transition as required by the backstop.
    You keep saying “we have to agree the backstop to get to the transition period”

    That’s not true. Barnier wants us to, but it is not an immutable fact
    Well if you want to go on blind faith that Barnier is bluffing that is up to you
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Attitudes like yours, and Mr Meeks', are why Brexit might end up a fucking disaster

    Brexit was a fucking disaster before you voted for it.

    My conscience is clear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited October 2018
    Tony said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the government is unable to reach a deal with the EU, 31% of respondents said the UK should leave without a deal and with no further votes, 23% said there should a second Brexit referendum, 14% said there should be a general election and 13% said the government should try and extend the negotiation period beyond March 2019.

    So 36% back an extended nority
    Err - excluding Don't Knows al is going to be in the lead by the time the Commons vote.
    31% is not 'almost 40%' it is less than a third. Leave got 52% so barely more than half of Leave voters back No Deal
    So even with Don't Knows a quarter of Leavain and May Deal will beat No Deal head to head
    And a huge number of remain voters don't support another referendum.

    Remain is not an option. The only choice actually available will be May's sellout vs No Deal.

    No Deal will be in the lead by the time of the HoC vote. This will encourage the ERG to reject it and May will be defeated.
    They do if it is No Deal.

    According to ICM in order of net favourability with voters Canada is on +20%, Norway on +7%, Chequers on +5%, Remain on +1%, No Deal on an abysmal -33%.


    No Deal is the only way Remainers have a chance of reversing Brexit in a second referendum.


    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html
    With the greatest of respect your constant quoting of arbitrary poll results is incredibly tiresome.

    Surely the last few major campaigns have all shown one thing polls taken prior to the heat of the campaign itself were all completely wrong.

    Trump/Clinton
    Remain/leave
    May/Corbyn

    All finished very differently to how the 'polls' were predicting at the start.

    In the real world no one had any idea what canada, Norway, chequers actually mean, so the percentage support for each is meaningless.

    Likewise no deal is generally assumed to mean no planes, no medicine and general economic collapse. I'm actually amazed it's polling so well :)
    Trump led several polls, Leave led several polls even if they did not lead a majority of the final polls.

    May actually won enough seats to form a government again.

    No Deal has led 0 polls against Remain and has a net approval rating even worse than Hillary's in 2016.

    You may find it 'tiresome' polls do not support your point of view, that will not stop me posting them!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anazina said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    While Schengen is optional for EFTA countries, FOM is, as you say, not optional.
    I personally think it would be the best long-term destination, but agree that after the Leave campaign we had, it's completely incompatible with the expressed view of the people and why most (not all, of course, but a big majority) of Leave voters made the vote they did:
    image
    Right, so we choose our national path based on word clouds now? Sorry, no. Nothing on the ballot paper about FOM. Vote was 52/48. We shouldn’t infer a hardline ‘shut the borders’ path from that.
    Control of Immigration is not closing the borders
  • Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    It's like Labour defectors.

    "If not now, when?" five or six times each. The answer is of course, "never".
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    Rancid xenophobia won the referendum. The disaster that is unfolding is down to the willingness of obsessive Europhobes to throw in their lot with race-baiters.

    No, Alastair, you don't understand.

    Leavers didn't vote FOR Farage, they just voted WITH him.

    See, not rancid xenophobes at all, just voted with the rancid xenophobes. Some of their best friends are European.
    See, there you go. I despise you all over again, and would rather No Deal just so you have to SUCK IT UP. Wanker.

    You arrogant tossers will never learn, and you deserved to lose. Even if you got your second referendum my guess is that people like you and Meeks would ensure, with your repulsive sneering, that Remain lost all over again, perhaps by a bigger margin.

    Twats.
    In a fresh referendum I doubt I’d vote. I couldn’t endorse Leave and in the present state of affairs Remain would be no solution. There ain’t going to be a happy ending.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    Just because we Leavers won (narrowly) do we get to ignore the 16 million Brits who wanted to stay in Europe? No. Morally, politically, emotionally, we don't.

    Is that what Brexiteers really think?

    No
    SeanT said:

    See, there you go. I despise you all over again, and would rather No Deal just so you have to SUCK IT UP. Wanker.

    You arrogant tossers will never learn, and you deserved to lose.

    Twats.

    That is what Brexiteers really think.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    But you missed the most important part, EFTA is not consistent with honouring the referendum result on free movement.
    We could have done that in the EU had Blair imposed transition controls in 2004 on free movement from the new accession nations, in EFTA we can evict those after 3 months not in work or looking for work and lots of Eastern Europeans have headed home after the Leave vote anyway
    15 years ago mate

    You’ve said the same thing a hundred times or more. Try to be more interesting
    It remains a pivotal point, boring or not
    Actually no. It’s complete conjecture (“if this has happened 15 years ago the world would be different”) and hypothetical.

    You don’t know. I don’t know. What we do know is that it didn’t happen.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    You STILL haven't worked out why you lost.

    Remain lost because Farage's Little Englanders won the day.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Right. I need to record the third piece of my Demographics series.

    And I need to finish writing

    "2020: The Election They Wished They Had't Won"

    We won't be having an election in 2020. FTPA says five years after 2017 or quite possibly 2019 if the government falls over Brexit.
    If May gets her Withdrawal Agreement through 2/brexit-transition-period-could-extended-another-year-costing/
    Barnier is not agreeing to settle the Irish border, nor to agree an FTA. He is still saying that the backstop will be permanent until the UK accept the separation of NI in return for an FTA. Or the UK accept EEA+CU. No other options.
    May will of course agree that the UK stays in the Customs Union to get to the transition period but Barnier is moving to extend the transition period for a year so May can sell the Withdrawal Agreement Deal to enough of her backbenchers to get it through the Commons, as a backstop of staying in the Customs Union even without a time limit with an extended transition period will be less likely to be iod in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections)
    You have completely misunderstood what is being proposed.

    In the transition period, we are full members of the CU and SM. We don't 'stay in the CU to get to the transition'. The transition starts on 31 March 2019.

    The backstop, which would kick in at the end of the transition, keeps the UK in the CU only, but keeps NI in the SM as well.

    not be in the CU without following SM regulations.

    Summary - May is a liar and is trying to deceive people that the backstop is not permanent.
    We have to agree the CU backstop to get to the transition period.

    The backstop keeping the whole UK in the CU only kicks in if no FTA agreed during the transition period. GB would not be in the full SM even if it stayed in the CU post transition as required by the backstop.
    You keep saying “we have to agree the backstop to get to the transition period”

    That’s not true. Barnier wants us to, but it is not an immutable fact
    Well if you want to go on blind faith that Barnier is bluffing that is up to you
    Neither of us are in the room.

    It’s a negotiation
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    But you missed the most important part, EFTA is not consistent with honouring the referendum result on free movement.
    We could have done that in the EU had Blair imposed transition controls in 2004 on free movement from the new accession nations, in EFTA we can evict those after 3 months not in work or looking for work and lots of Eastern Europeans have headed home after the Leave vote anyway
    15 years ago mate

    You’ve said the same thing a hundred times or more. Try to be more interesting
    It remains a pivotal point, boring or not
    Actually no. It’s complete conjecture (“if this has happened 15 years ago the world would be different”) and hypothetical.

    You don’t know. I don’t know. What we do know is that it didn’t happen.
    We do know that we were virtually the only country bar Sweden and Ireland which did not impose those transition controls and the largest nation not to do so and so as a consequence took a disproportionate share of Poles and Czechs and Hungarians.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Die Hard on Channel 4 in half an hour.

    The run in to Christmas gets earlier and earlier.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    Yet they have nowhere near the numbers to topple May in a No Confidence vote
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    +1

    Given where we are now, EFTA is the best bet. Then think again. We would not be stuck. Norway could leave EFTA and be entirely independent any time it likes

    The fear must be that the sense of betrayal over FoM would reinvent UKIP and lead to a Corbyn government.

    How do you solve that?

    With a 2nd referendum where the choice is HMG's EFTA, or No Deal (or whatever Labour propose instead of EFTA)

    I reckon EFTA would win fairly easily, 60/40?

    Don't EFTA members participate in the Single Market and Schengen?

    EFTA might have been an option if Leave hadn't focussed so much on immigration/free movement.

    So EFTA isn't an option, and plus there's a strong chance that EFTA wouldn't let us in anyway given our size, we'd dominate it.
    Wrong. EFTA have already said we are welcome to join.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-join-european-economic-area-single-market-norway-eea-a8350681.html

    I know you are desperate for No Deal Crash Brexit so you can feel some strange pleasure in your country's pain, as you move to Frankfurt (my sympathies), but simply lying does you no favour.

    But you missed the most important part, EFTA is not consistent with honouring the referendum result on free movement.
    We could have done that in the EU had Blair imposed transition controls in 2004 on free movement from the new accession nations, in EFTA we can evict those after 3 months not in work or looking for work and lots of Eastern Europeans have headed home after the Leave vote anyway
    15 years ago mate

    You’ve said the same thing a hundred times or more. Try to be more interesting
    It remains a pivotal point, boring or not
    Actually no. It’s complete conjecture (“if this has happened 15 years ago the world would be different”) and hypothetical.

    You don’t know. I don’t know. What we do know is that it didn’t happen.
    We do know that we were virtually the only country bar Sweden and Ireland which did not impose those transition controls and the largest nation not to do so and so as a consequence took a disproportionate share of Poles and Czechs and Hungarians.


    And we don’t know what impact that had or if it would have been different with transitional controls
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
    More like, it’s only playable if you can win the vote that follows. Obviously they can’t, and everyone realises that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
    More like, it’s only playable if you can win the vote that follows. Obviously they can’t, and everyone realises that.
    It’s the Samson strategy. MAD but may be effective as a threat (but the DUP is better at it)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    why you guys would lose another referendum.

    Why do you care?

    You and your fellow Little Englanders won the only vote that counts.

    We're fucked. Rejoice in your victory.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
    More like, it’s only playable if you can win the vote that follows. Obviously they can’t, and everyone realises that.
    It’s the Samson strategy. MAD but may be effective as a threat (but the DUP is better at it)
    It only works if you have the strength. The ERG don’t.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
    More like, it’s only playable if you can win the vote that follows. Obviously they can’t, and everyone realises that.
    It’s the Samson strategy. MAD but may be effective as a threat (but the DUP is better at it)
    It only works if you have the strength. The ERG don’t.
    I think a VoNC would fatally weaken May even if the ERG can’t Guarantee who would replace her
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    Or, more correctly, at least four more.

    Given recent events, it speaks volumes that the headbangers still haven’t felt that triggering a leadership contest was a good idea. It might happen by accident, which would cause all kids of problems for everyone with ambitions in the Conservative party.
    The people I had dinner with earlier in the week were absolutely confident they could get the 48 letters anytime they wanted
    I expect so. But they haven’t, and for a good reason.
    It’s their trump card (may be). It’s more powerful kept in their hand
    More like, it’s only playable if you can win the vote that follows. Obviously they can’t, and everyone realises that.
    It’s the Samson strategy. MAD but may be effective as a threat (but the DUP is better at it)
    It only works if you have the strength. The ERG don’t.
    I think a VoNC would fatally weaken May even if the ERG can’t Guarantee who would replace her
    A failed vote of no confidence keeps her in place for a year. If the ERG could win, she’d already be gone. They can’t so they’re all piss and wind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    You STILL haven't worked out why you lost.

    Remain lost because Farage's Little Englanders won the day.
    The biggest collection of smug big brains, bound together by every advantage the Establishment could dream up, lost the unloseable Referendum.

    To Nigel Farage.

    I can see why you are still in pain. That's not just painful. That's an eighteen inch dildo up the jacksy, each and every day, painful.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That's not just painful. That's an eighteen inch dildo up the jacksy, each and every day, painful.

    And STILL the Brexiteers haven't worked out what's coming their way...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    Just because we Leavers won (narrowly) do we get to ignore the 16 million Brits who wanted to stay in Europe? No. Morally, politically, emotionally, we don't.

    Is that what Brexiteers really think?

    No
    SeanT said:

    See, there you go. I despise you all over again, and would rather No Deal just so you have to SUCK IT UP. Wanker.

    You arrogant tossers will never learn, and you deserved to lose.

    Twats.

    That is what Brexiteers really think.
    The second comment came after you - yet again - labelled me as a racist simply for voting LEAVE. It hardened my heart. And you still don't understand why.

    I know you've seen this video. My advice is watch it again, and again, and again, until you - even with your painfully restrained IQ - begin to see why it is both funny and piercingly accurate, and why you guys would lose another referendum.

    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/1049565639877234688
    Haha that video is hilarious. Thanks for sharing. It is true though - calling leavers ‘little Englanders’ is going to do nothing more than to sow more division.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:

    You STILL haven't worked out why you lost.

    Remain lost because Farage's Little Englanders won the day.
    The biggest collection of smug big brains, bound together by every advantage the Establishment could dream up, lost the unloseable Referendum.

    To Nigel Farage.

    I can see why you are still in pain. That's not just painful. That's an eighteen inch dildo up the jacksy, each and every day, painful.
    All the polling shows that, if any politician made a difference on the day, it was Boris. Not Farage.

    He's lost cachet since, but Bozza was the crucial political figure that probably tilted the scales. Farage was already factored in (and also ignored in crucial debates, etc).

    Gove was probably a distant 2nd.

    My personal favourite, however, was Sarah Wollaston, who apparently, actually and painfully campaigned for LEAVE, before, miraculously, seeing the light and suddenly switching to REMAIN, in a move that was in no-way planned and did not look transparently false and mendacious, absolutely not, Nope. No no no.

    I see she is now so REMAIN she is part of the Clarke Soubry camp. lol. That's quite some conversion.

    The REMAIN campaign of 2016 was the biggest fucking disaster in the history of electoral politics (and that includes Theresa May's 2017 election). Discuss.
    Wollaston's position is even more bizarre when you realise she "switched" because she thought the NHS claims on that bus were risible. And then May goes and awards the NHS EVEN MORE extra per week than was on that bus.

    And she's my MP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And then May goes and awards the NHS EVEN MORE extra per week than was on that bus.

    She can't get it through the budget
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    calling leavers ‘little Englanders’ is going to do nothing more than to sow more division.

    Brexit is more important to them than the Union.

    Little Englanders is an entirely accurate term
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:

    And then May goes and awards the NHS EVEN MORE extra per week than was on that bus.

    She can't get it through the budget
    Then there'll be an election, where it will be in the manifesto.....
This discussion has been closed.