I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.
If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...
This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...
Israel never get 'dragged in' they choose to further their interests by becoming involved. Lebanon being the most egregious example in recent times.
I'm fine with criticising Israel, what I don't get is people being so much MORE animated by Israeli malfeasance than any other country/government.
For the same reason the Dutch were more harsh on the South Aficans than other Europeans. Israel are considered the only 'Western Country' in the region and those are the standards they are rightly being judged by.
"rightly"
Dear fucking god
Capital 'G'.
Only if you've signed up for monotheism....
While on the subject of pedantry (yours and mine) I read a short story by an American writer Adam Haslett yesterday and one of his stories involved an English couple. It began 'We met on the sidewalk off Oxford Street....." There are many Americanisms that you can get away with but 'sidewalk' isn't one of them. From that point on the story just didn't involve an English couple.
Very solipsistic Roger I don’t doubt that for Americans it was all about an English couple.
Just sitting here dozing in front of the fire, reading on here the pros and cons of Brexit I must say that the concept of a second referendum is far more advanced than I thought likely. Although Lisa Nandy on the radio this late morning was convincing as to why there shouldn’t be one.
My view: deal then no GE or second referendum. GE in 2022 as planned.
OK, but does that mean that the whole UK stays in either/both SM/CU? Or do you think the DUP are bluffing?
I don’t think that the DUP are bluffing I think the deal will be can kicking (we only need to get to the transition). And then the true negotiation begins.
1. No hard land border in Ireland (Ireland and the EU) 2. No differential treatment of the UK and NI (DUP) 3. The ability of the UK to diverge from the EU (Tory Brexiteers)
At least one of those red lines must give. I doubt the EU will grant an extension to A50, which requires EU27 unanimity, just because the UK government is unwilling or unable to concede on the EU''s red line. If it does concede, the EU might allow the UK government more time to get the stakeholders on board.
Totally O/T but scanning the current football scores, hoping that Colchester are doing better than usual, and I see that Cheltenham vs Yeovil has been postponed 'due to insufficient players’. Is this result of the weather or have we reached a stage where overseas players make up a significant part of professional clubs staff this far down the pyramid?
Why can’t the Tories see that the DUP won’t vote for a deal that forces them to align more with the RoI that with the rest of the U.K. They wouldn’t, no matter how much they dislike the thought of a Corbyn Gov. The Tories are causing their own downfall because there are no reasons to vote for them. Fear of Corbyn didn’t work in 2017 since when May has done nothing to show she is worth supporting and the Tories, and the ERG in particular, are too scared to move against her. It’s hard to see how Corbyn can be stopped even though he would be a catastrophe.
On current polls though the Tories will still be largest party and have a majority in England.
Corbyn will be reliant on SNP MPs on confidence and supply and LD MPs to get any legislation through
May lost a 20% lead in the polls at the last election. She has got a tax and spend Chancellor and anyone who wants tax and spend will simply vote Corbyn. No one is going to move against Corbyn for fear of being deselected.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What ieen such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
Rogers is orbyn will only be able to exercise power courtesy of other smaller parties may not be a safe one to make.
All true. I'd only add that we are equally in danger of taking the polls for granted in the opposite direction.
Labour's polling and Corbyn's personal polling are very different, the first is OK the second is disastrous. At the moment this doesn't matter. But in an election?
During an election campaign every party would have to explicitly commit to a Brexit position, something Labour have cleverly avoided til now. Once it became obvious to voters that Corbyn's Labour are pro-Brexit, and closer on this issue to Rees Mogg than Ken Clarke (even if the bulk of MPs and activists are passionately Remain) then millions of potential Labour voters might recoil.
The Tories could be returned with a healthy absolute majority.
Irony of ironies.
But that presumes every elector is as fascinated by Brexit as those on here. Some are, most aren't. My suspicion is that whoever banged on about anything other than Europe would gain votes. Wasn't 2017 the Brexit GE?
Polls show that, by a massive margin, Brexit is seen as THE most important issue facing the nation right now. In the last poll 65% put Brexit as Most Important Issue, the nearest challenger was Health, cited by 39%. That's huge.
So, yes, if we get a GE any time soon it will be another Brexit election, indeed much more Brexity than the last, as we approach the Brexit Endtimes.
There is a big difference between an issue being seen as important - which Brexit undoubtedly is - and it being salient. May called the 2017 election on the basis of needing a Brexit mandate - but in the event it was NOT a Brexit election. The issue is particularly lacking in salience amongst Labour voters - who are far more interested in other things such as Austerity , NHS & Public Services.
I think a new PM would ask for an extension to A50
BoZo already said he would
BoZo just might not be there after a GE, though.
Maybe, maybe not but he could become PM without a GE until 2022 and even then I reckon he could beat a 73 your old Corbyn if the Tories got their act together and ran a decent campaign.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What ieen such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
Rogers is orbyn will only be able to exercise power courtesy of other smaller parties may not be a safe one to make.
All true. I'd only add that we are equally in danger of taking the polls for granted in the opposite direction.
Labour's polling and Corbyn's personal polling are very different, the first is OK the second is disastrous. At the moment this doesn't matter. But in an election?
During an election campaign every party would have to explicitly commit to a Brexit position, something Labour have cleverly avoided til now. Once it became obvious to voters that Corbyn's Labour are pro-Brexit, and closer on this issue to Rees Mogg than Ken Clarke (even if the bulk of MPs and activists are passionately Remain) then millions of potential Labour voters might recoil.
The Tories could be returned with a healthy absolute majority.
Irony of ironies.
But that presumes every elector is as fascinated by Brexit as those on here. Some are, most aren't. My suspicion is that whoever banged on about anything other than Europe would gain votes. Wasn't 2017 the Brexit GE?
Polls show that, by a massive margin, Brexit is seen as THE most important issue facing the nation right now. In the last poll 65% put Brexit as Most Important Issue, the nearest challenger was Health, cited by 39%. That's huge.
Totally O/T but scanning the current football scores, hoping that Colchester are doing better than usual, and I see that Cheltenham vs Yeovil has been postponed 'due to insufficient players’. Is this result of the weather or have we reached a stage where overseas players make up a significant part of professional clubs staff this far down the pyramid?
One team probably went out for a dodgy curry last night.....
Like others, whilst I appreciate the read I do not agree with the conclusion.
If May falls the Tories will still have at least one more chance to screw things up again put things right before we get into election mode. That makes the bet a loser. This is where the delusions of Corbyn's PM by (last) Christmas hits reality. The reality is that the Conservatives are sufficiently close to a majority (after taking the SF non MPs and the Speaker out of the reckoning) to make any other government pretty much impossible for anything other than seeking to overcome the ridiculous FTPA and calling an election.
The only way that Corbyn is next PM is if May ends up leading the Tories into an election again. That is looking less likely to me than it did a couple of months ago. Her coat is on an increasingly shoogly peg.
The question is not whether the bet is more likely to come in than not; it is (or was) whether it would come in more than once in seven times.
Besides, if May falls to a Commons No Confidence vote, *how* do the Tories get another shot - bearing in mind that they only have two weeks to do it?
There would have to be a coronation, either on a permanent or potentially temporary basis. A new government led by Javid would be given a chance to go back to the EU to see if they can find a deal more palatable to the Commons than the one May presented and (on this scenario) was rejected.
For me, unpleasant as it will be, I think that there is less than a 10% chance of the Commons rejecting May's deal. If it doesn't I think this debt is a loser.
Yes, as you say, there'd need to be a coronation. Question is: would the entire parliamentary Conservative Party have the self-discipline to achieve that? Under current rules, it only takes two MPs to propose and second a candidate.
24 hours to change the rules (party board) 24 hours for nominations Hustings 24 hours after that. Current voting system but with 1 hour between rounds and each round open for 1 hour
Mr. Mark, May, and the Government generally, is atrocious at getting messages across, whether promoting their own positives or attacking Labour negatives.
Totally O/T but scanning the current football scores, hoping that Colchester are doing better than usual, and I see that Cheltenham vs Yeovil has been postponed 'due to insufficient players’. Is this result of the weather or have we reached a stage where overseas players make up a significant part of professional clubs staff this far down the pyramid?
One team probably went out for a dodgy curry last night.....
That game was postponed early in the week, I had it down as a draw.
Some of the smaller FIFA member countries have players who are playing for clubs in our Leagues 1 and 2 and in our National League.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
I was interested in the facts, so I set a few criteria for economic performance and then ran the numbers on the stats since 1945. The Tories did slightly worse overall - but largely because the Thatcher years were so bad. I took them out and there was no statistical difference. So the facts are that governments are much of a muchness with the exception of Thatcher's, which was much worse than the rest.
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
I find it interesting that the Brexiteers have not yet realised the forces of revolution that have been unleashed are not going to be halted in march next year.
The politicians crying "will of the people" the loudest for now will be among the first up against the wall
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What ieen such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
Rogers is orbyn will only be able to exercise power courtesy of other smaller parties may not be a safe one to make.
All true. I'd only add that we are equally in danger of taking the polls for granted in the opposite direction.
Labour's polling and Corbyn's personal polling are very different, the first is OK the second is disastrous. At the moment this doesn't matter. But in an election?
During an election campaign every party would have to explicitly commit to a Brexit position, something Labour have cleverly avoided til now. Once it became obvious to voters that Corbyn's Labour are pro-Brexit, and closer on this issue to Rees Mogg than Ken Clarke (even if the bulk of MPs and activists are passionately Remain) then millions of potential Labour voters might recoil.
The Tories could be returned with a healthy absolute majority.
Irony of ironies.
But that presumes every elector is as fascinated by Brexit as those on here. Some are, most aren't. My suspicion is that whoever banged on about anything other than Europe would gain votes. Wasn't 2017 the Brexit GE?
Polls show that, by a massive margin, Brexit is seen as THE most important issue facing the nation right now. In the last poll 65% put Brexit as Most Important Issue, the nearest challenger was Health, cited by 39%. That's huge.
6/1 is indeed value, but it depends on the timing. If May went to the polls now she might have a chance of hanging on - with a bit of help from machiavellian Tory strategists she could play Labour and LDs off against each other, split the Left/Remain vote, and craft a small majority. After March, things might be more difficult for her. Once Brexit is a fait accompli, the Left will likely coalesce again behind Corbyn. And if Brexit is quite soft, Ukip etc. will once more become a thorn in the Tories' side.
Totally O/T but scanning the current football scores, hoping that Colchester are doing better than usual, and I see that Cheltenham vs Yeovil has been postponed 'due to insufficient players’. Is this result of the weather or have we reached a stage where overseas players make up a significant part of professional clubs staff this far down the pyramid?
One team probably went out for a dodgy curry last night.....
That game was postponed early in the week, I had it down as a draw.
Some of the smaller FIFA member countries have players who are playing for clubs in our Leagues 1 and 2 and in our National League.
Sounds like a nasty dose of flu in one or other dressing room.
There are indeed players from all over the world at quite ‘low’ levels in the football pyramid. Applies in cricket too. Remains what will happen after strict immigration controls and quotas are imposed.
Football is international though; the team which I watch when visiting my family in Thailand has a Montenegrin, an Indonesian and a couple of Spaniards in the squad. In the past they’ve had a Brazilian and an Italian, and I think at one stage a British manager.
I find it interesting that the Brexiteers have not yet realised the forces of revolution that have been unleashed are not going to be halted in march next year.
The politicians crying "will of the people" the loudest for now will be among the first up against the wall
The protests will - as usual - be confined to people wailing on Twitter. Forces of revolution my arse.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
I was interested in the facts, so I set a few criteria for economic performance and then ran the numbers on the stats since 1945. The Tories did slightly worse overall - but largely because the Thatcher years were so bad. I took them out and there was no statistical difference. So the facts are that governments are much of a muchness with the exception of Thatcher's, which was much worse than the rest.
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
Inflation, and therefore Bank Rate was cripplingly high.... for me at any rate...... in the late 80’s.
I think the last few days are very instructive about the real problem facing Brexit.
May promised Chequers and explained it was that or nothing. It has been rejected. There appears to be no progress at all on a trade deal whether Chequers or anything else. Meanwhile, May is trying to come up with a ‘backstop’ which is certain to be implemented.
Yet the Remainers here are all in ageement that we must accept the deal, without having the slightest idea what that deal is! Is it Chequers, is it CETA? They don’t care. We just have to accept it.
The remainers on PB, even those who say we must accept Brexit, are just showing the reality - they don’t accept Brexit at all. And in this they are reflective of Theresa May. The only people who would accept a deal without knowing what it is are people who, in truth, just expect the deal to obstruct Brexit rather than deliver it. We are not arguing any more about what sort of Brexit people may want. We are seeing people support a ‘deal’ simply because it makes any real Brexit impossible. And if they can’t get a deal that obstructs Brexit, they demand a referendum to reverse it.
It is not possible to make peace with remainers. They won’t accept the result. They are undemocratic. They have learned nothing since the referendum. They don’t really care if the deal is in the national interest at all, because in their mind they are the national interest.
The fundamental division which produced Brexit has not changed at all, no matter what polls some people might like to quote. It is still the Elite vs the People. And behind the outward certainty that is characteristic of the Elite, they are terrified the situation is about to get out of their control, forever.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
Inflation, and therefore Bank Rate was cripplingly high.... for me at any rate...... in the late 80’s.
My personal experience was simply that the mood of the country changed during the 80s, rather than there being some amazing economic change. Inflation fell, as did taxes, but for me the 70s were quite melancholy. A great country, down on its luck and struggling. The 80s were optimistic and exciting. Perhaps there's some longer term cyclical effect happening; the late 90s and early noughties had the same vibe which has deserted us these days.
I find it interesting that the Brexiteers have not yet realised the forces of revolution that have been unleashed are not going to be halted in march next year.
The politicians crying "will of the people" the loudest for now will be among the first up against the wall
The protests will - as usual - be confined to people wailing on Twitter. Forces of revolution my arse.
Indeed.
The Twitterati simple don’t resonate with 3/4 of the population.
I find it interesting that the Brexiteers have not yet realised the forces of revolution that have been unleashed are not going to be halted in march next year.
The politicians crying "will of the people" the loudest for now will be among the first up against the wall
Assuming we do leave on schedule and the deal is 'Hard' enough to buy off most of the Tory Brexiteers and keep the UKIP tanks off the lawns, then yes there will still be a lot of wailing by hard-line remaindermen, after all the EU has almost become their religion.
But after a year or two normal people will have become totally bored stiff with Brexit and although there will still be a re-join campaign and maybe even a new pro-EU party, I don't think it will be a major issue in a 2022 General Election.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
Inflation, and therefore Bank Rate was cripplingly high.... for me at any rate...... in the late 80’s.
My personal experience was simply that the mood of the country changed during the 80s, rather than there being some amazing economic change. Inflation fell, as did taxes, but for me the 70s were quite melancholy. A great country, down on its luck and struggling. The 80s were optimistic and exciting. Perhaps there's some longer term cyclical effect happening; the late 90s and early noughties had the same vibe which has deserted us these days.
That is not my memory of the 80’s at all! There were personal high spots, but generally it was a decade of struggle.
Why can’t the Tories see that the DUP won’t vote for a deal that forces them to align more with the RoI that with the rest of the U.K. They wouldn’t, no matter how much they dislike the thought of a Corbyn Gov. The Tories are causing their own downfall because there are no reasons to vote for them. Fear of Corbyn didn’t work in 2017 since when May has done nothing to show she is worth supporting and the Tories, and the ERG in particular, are too scared to move against her. It’s hard to see how Corbyn can be stopped even though he would be a catastrophe.
On current polls though the Tories will still be largest party and have a majority in England.
Corbyn will be reliant on SNP MPs on confidence and supply and LD MPs to get any legislation through
May lost a 20% lead in the polls at the last election. She has got a tax and spend Chancellor and anyone who wants tax and spend will simply vote Corbyn. No one is going to move against Corbyn for fear of being deselected.
May got the 42% she polled before she called the general election
All that happened was most of the tax and spend supporters of minor parties moved to back Corbyn Labour but they still trailed the Tories and the Tories won a majority in England
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
I was interested in the facts, so I set a few criteria for economic performance and then ran the numbers on the stats since 1945. The Tories did slightly worse overall - but largely because the Thatcher years were so bad. I took them out and there was no statistical difference. So the facts are that governments are much of a muchness with the exception of Thatcher's, which was much worse than the rest.
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
So she still left office with inflation lower than under Callaghan then
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit.
What it highlights for me though is the utter failure of the political, administrative and commercial class and, indeed, of the EU itself to make real to voters in the UK the benefits of being in the EU. It is very curious how a country which became successful during its period in the EU - and part of that success will have been as a result of being a member - has progressively become more Eurosceptic over the years rather than less. Not all of this can be put down to silly newspaper articles or even recent issues with backhanded policies on migration and the rest. Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
I was interested in the facts, so I set a few criteria for economic performance and then ran the numbers on the stats since 1945. The Tories did slightly worse overall - but largely because the Thatcher years were so bad. I took them out and there was no statistical difference. So the facts are that governments are much of a muchness with the exception of Thatcher's, which was much worse than the rest.
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
At the end of the Thatcher years inflation and strikes were lower than 1979 and GDP per capita was higher. She did less well on unemployment admittedly and Major did even better on cutting inflation
At the end of Thatcher's period inflation at 9.8% was little changed from the 10.2% inherited from Callaghan 11.5 years earlier. Indeed for much of 1989 and 1990 inflation was higher than under Callaghan in 1978 and early 1979.
So she still left office with inflation lower than under Callaghan then
Yes - it only took her 11.5 years to reduce inflation by less than 0.5%. The previous Labour Government did manage to reduce inflation by over 3% in barely 5 years.
I have finished reading that Ivan Rogers lecture, which is brutal on the delusions of those trying to implement Brexit. . Other countries have had parties with a Eurosceptic tinge and other countries have voted against European measures (France, Netherlands) but amongst very few of them has there been such a consistently strong anti-EU feeling despite the benefits of the EU.
On a distantly related note, I think we are in danger of taking the current polls for granted. If there is no deal or one is voted down and we end up in GE territory, I think it quite possible that Corbyn could get an absolute majority. People may just feel so fed up with having the agonies of a minority government having to argue with itself that they might just go: "Oh fuck it. Give him the chance. After all he can hardly do any worse." Not my sentiments but the assumption that Corbyn will only be able to exercise power courtesy of other smaller parties may not be a safe one to make.
The Remain campaign was almost entirely negative, sadly.
That's very true. It was also negative exactly according to the regular pattern of the bogus attacks on Labour's competence that get trotted out at every election - the ones that Justin and Uniondivide are effortlessly demolishing upthread. It is little wonder that a lot of habitual Labour voters voted against it.
Lol. ‘Effortlessly demolishing’ is a new synonym for ‘failing to accept the facts’ is it?
I was interested in the facts, so I set a few criteria for economic performance and then ran the numbers on the stats since 1945. The Tories did slightly worse overall - but largely because the Thatcher years were so bad. I took them out and there was no statistical difference. So the facts are that governments are much of a muchness with the exception of Thatcher's, which was much worse than the rest.
Sorry to be the one to break it to you.
The comment I made, that Justin wibbled about but was unable to disprove (because it is fact) is that every Labour government has left more unemployment than when it took office.
Labour isn’t working. It never has.
And I am sure an equally damning statistic could be found about Conservative governments if one looked hard enough. On unemployment for example, the Conservatives presided over the largest unemployment figures in 1982.
Why can’t the Tories see that the DUP won’t vote for a deal that forces them to align more with the RoI that with the rest of the U.K. They wouldn’t, no matter how much they dislike the thought of a Corbyn Gov. The Tories are causing their own downfall because there are no reasons to vote for them. Fear of Corbyn didn’t work in 2017 since when May has done nothing to show she is worth supporting and the Tories, and the ERG in particular, are too scared to move against her. It’s hard to see how Corbyn can be stopped even though he would be a catastrophe.
On current polls though the Tories will still be largest party and have a majority in England.
Corbyn will be reliant on SNP MPs on confidence and supply and LD MPs to get any legislation through
May lost a 20% lead in the polls at the last election. She has got a tax and spend Chancellor and anyone who wants tax and spend will simply vote Corbyn. No one is going to move against Corbyn for fear of being deselected.
May got the 42% she polled before she called the general election
All that happened was most of the tax and spend supporters of minor parties moved to back Corbyn Labour but they still trailed the Tories and the Tories won a majority in England
Labour picked up 15% in the polls in 2017 and next time, if the polls are about even as they are now, no one will have a reason to vote Tory. The Brexit May is negotiating offers Britain nothing and she has no domestic policy programme. Corbyn will promise the world to people on public services and people will be gullible enough to believe him. If the relationship with the DUP breaks down, May won’t get her boundary changes agreed so Labour votes will continue he to be worth more than Tory votes.
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The public are not going to reward the shysters who sold them "£350m for the NHS" when the dust has settled
Less off topic v funny that Leavers are less likely to like abstract art than Remainers.
1. No hard land border in Ireland (Ireland and the EU)
2. No differential treatment of the UK and NI (DUP)
3. The ability of the UK to diverge from the EU (Tory Brexiteers)
At least one of those red lines must give. I doubt the EU will grant an extension to A50, which requires EU27 unanimity, just because the UK government is unwilling or unable to concede on the EU''s red line. If it does concede, the EU might allow the UK government more time to get the stakeholders on board.
Is this result of the weather or have we reached a stage where overseas players make up a significant part of professional clubs staff this far down the pyramid?
3 cheers...
Some of the smaller FIFA member countries have players who are playing for clubs in our Leagues 1 and 2 and in our National League.
The politicians crying "will of the people" the loudest for now will be among the first up against the wall
There are indeed players from all over the world at quite ‘low’ levels in the football pyramid. Applies in cricket too. Remains what will happen after strict immigration controls and quotas are imposed.
Football is international though; the team which I watch when visiting my family in Thailand has a Montenegrin, an Indonesian and a couple of Spaniards in the squad. In the past they’ve had a Brazilian and an Italian, and I think at one stage a British manager.
May promised Chequers and explained it was that or nothing. It has been rejected. There appears to be no progress at all on a trade deal whether Chequers or anything else. Meanwhile, May is trying to come up with a ‘backstop’ which is certain to be implemented.
Yet the Remainers here are all in ageement that we must accept the deal, without having the slightest idea what that deal is! Is it Chequers, is it CETA? They don’t care. We just have to accept it.
The remainers on PB, even those who say we must accept Brexit, are just showing the reality - they don’t accept Brexit at all. And in this they are reflective of Theresa May. The only people who would accept a deal without knowing what it is are people who, in truth, just expect the deal to obstruct Brexit rather than deliver it. We are not arguing any more about what sort of Brexit people may want. We are seeing people support a ‘deal’ simply because it makes any real Brexit impossible. And if they can’t get a deal that obstructs Brexit, they demand a referendum to reverse it.
It is not possible to make peace with remainers. They won’t accept the result. They are undemocratic. They have learned nothing since the referendum. They don’t really care if the deal is in the national interest at all, because in their mind they are the national interest.
The fundamental division which produced Brexit has not changed at all, no matter what polls some people might like to quote. It is still the Elite vs the People. And behind the outward certainty that is characteristic of the Elite, they are terrified the situation is about to get out of their control, forever.
The Twitterati simple don’t resonate with 3/4 of the population.
But after a year or two normal people will have become totally bored stiff with Brexit and although there will still be a re-join campaign and maybe even a new pro-EU party, I don't think it will be a major issue in a 2022 General Election.
All that happened was most of the tax and spend supporters of minor parties moved to back Corbyn Labour but they still trailed the Tories and the Tories won a majority in England