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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value
When Ian Paisley said “No!”, people believed that he meant what he said. The Big Man may be gone but his party lives on and it would be extremely unwise for anyone to assume that when Arlene Foster says “no”, she means any different from her predecessor. The DUP do not bluff. Ever. They might occasionally change their minds but when they do, they do so in their own time and on their own terms.
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I suspect it won’t be the thing that limits politicians careers most. The question is, what is that.
Unless Labour can buy off the DUP. But surely not - not after the howls of outrage from the Left when the Tories did that....
And whatever the DUP's price, the SN would want far, far more. And that's without the LibDems demanding PR as their price. Which might not exactly play well with the DUP.....
A Corbyn takeover would hardly be smooth sailing given the numbers, but he's so close now he must be salivating. Wisely been quiet.
1) nothing needs to be agreed with the EU before the budget. So it won’t be.
2) if the budget were defeated that would not be a vote of no confidence and one would not necessarily ensue. If it did, the DUP would not necessarily or even probably vote against the government. Why would it? Its pact was with the Conservative party, not Theresa May. I’m sure they would legalistically honour it, not least because a hamstrung government would suit it nicely.
In short, this could be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it, actually) but it would not be the end of the Conservatives in power.
The DUP seem to have a problem with May and her handling of the NI status - not the conservative government.
Yes anyone else would struggle, particularly on the first, but if cannot pass either what even would be the point of her bring there? At the moment it's in part to prevent someone even worse taking over but if she is unable to do anything while there there's not really much to fear any more from others, since harm will be done with no agreement and no budget.
However I thought the ex MP Stewart Jackson was very impressive on newsnight last night putting across the Brexit case.
That from me who voted remain just in the end back in 2016.
I fear we might not be far away from a war engulfing the entire Middle East, nominally along Shia-Sunni lines. There are several major blocks vying for power, many of whom are using surrogates to further their aims. Added to this is the increased instability in this area, which is barely stable at the best of times.
If that is the case, then the question becomes how long it is before Israel gets dragged into it ...
This is another case where I hope I'm wrong ...
They’re backbench Tory loyalists pressing for the closest possible deal to the Lancaster House speech.
The failure of cabinet ministers to resign shouldn’t be attributed to the EG. Every time the ERG have threatened, No 10 has compromised. Both before and since the referendum.
I'm getting some money on Corbyn as PM though - worth the risk of a few pound now.
No 10 is playing fast and loose with the prospects of the Tory party being in government.
Who leads the Tories is of course pretty much irrelevant, not one alternative leader to May polls any better than she does against Corbyn Labour and not one has any alternative Brexit plan the EU could agree too that does not cross the DUP red lines of no border in the Irish Sea.
If May cannot get a deal through in some respects a general election may not be such a bad thing for the Tories, all the polls show the Tories would almost certainly be largest party and with a majority in England, if Corbyn got in it would only be propped up by the LDs and SNP and the Tories could then go into opposition and leave Corbyn lumbered with a Brexit Deal which would be almost identical to the one May would have produced anyway if she cannot get her plans through the Commons or holding an EUref2 Remain would probably then win, especially of the alternative was No Deal, giving a large pool of betrayed Leavers to fish in. The Tories could then get Leavers fully behind them under a Leader of the Opposition like Boris or Mogg or Patel on a 'true Brexit' plan and have opposition effectively all to themselves. Better that than lumbering on in government in limbo
Yeats could have written the Second Coming this week about Brexit and it would have seemed utterly apposite.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
In the national interest.
Point 2. It would be absurd for a government to lose an entire Budget and for a VoNC not to follow, if it didn't resign first. It's pretty much Page 1 of Opposition for Dummies. Now, it's possible that the DUP might support the Confidence vote afterwards but I doubt it because it'd look ridiculous. In reality, the DUP would be using the Budget as a proxy Confidence vote. But as you say, the Budget probably won't actually be the battleground. Push won't come to shove until either there's an actual Brexit Deal text for the Commons to vote on, or the government's negotiating position has already crossed DUP red lines. Given May's willingness to bend under pressure, I'd expect it to be the former.
Edit - Also, at the risk of a grannies/egg scenario, I'm not saying that I *expect* Corbyn to be the next PM, just that the 14% implied chance that PaddyPower and Betfair were offering struck me as far too low. I think it should be a touch more than double that.
This is the same. A government of self serving cranks are leading a bunch of morons for the ugliest of reasons. English Nationalism.
"Students have been warned not to dress up as "chavs or Tories" or wear sombreros under new guidelines seen by the BBC.
Kent Union, which represents students from the University of Kent, said outfits which threaten others' rights to "a safe space" should not be worn.
Banned costumes include cowboys, Native Americans, priests and Mexicans."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-45826809
Betfair Sportsbook have banned me completely.
"80 Percent Of Americans Think Political Correctness Is A National Problem
Contrary to a common narrative, majorities of Americans of all ages, income levels, and racial backgrounds strongly oppose political correctnesss."
http://thefederalist.com/2018/10/12/80-percent-of-americans-think-political-correctness-is-a-national-problem/
If the LDs hold the balance of power no legislation can get through without their support, so if say Corbyn became PM as Labour +SNP+PC+Green was more than the Tories + DUP on a confidence vote but less than Tories + DUP + LDs and the LDs abstained on the confidence vote rather than vote with the Tories then yes, the LDs would effectively be propping up Corbyn.
To be fair you hear about how difficult it is for Tory students, many of them staying in the closet etc. An why is it that radical Universities tend t show up in the most unlikely places. Canterbury, Kent?
There is certainly the possibility of totally failing to speak the same language as the DUP. Too many Tories seem to think they are Unionists, so are we. They fear and oppose Corbyn, so do we. They want Brexit, so do we.
And therefore everything will automatically be right between us.
Dear fucking god
Russia?
Venezuela?
*edit* Great article David, quite spoiled my cornflakes.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/west-virginia-supreme-court-impeachment-constitutional-crisis.html
You seem a sensible conservative.
Take my advice it will be a cluster fuck if the government does not change tack.
Especially dealing with severely disabled children.
I have wrote to my Conservative MP for York outer Julian Sturdy.
Hope he takes note.
(Which is perhaps going to be part of the Budget.)
The few billion to fix the hole, will stop at least the issue of several million families losing up to £2.4K a year.
That seems the bare minimum to me, to fix the UC nightmare, which, together with housing, will sink the Tories.
Not the people of Rochdale.
But just like some large physical infrastructure project, it is an absolute necessity.
Labour are brilliant at signalling their virtue; not so hot on delivery.
There is a hard limit to how much government can do to improve the lot of citizens. The capitalist economy can do an awful lot more.
The EU is effectively offering a Free Trade Zone to the whole of Northern Ireland. Other regions would give their eye teeth for a similar deal. It's particularly attractive for a region that doesn't have much going for it economically. The proposed checks on the way in aren't very different from other FTZs.
Most people in Northern Ireland support the backstop. At least the parties that represent most people do. This includes the non aligned parties such as Alliance and the Greens as well as the nationalist ones. Even the UUP seems somewhat ambivalent. Only the DUP is resolutely opposed.
The DUP are the only ones being heard, even though they are in a minority because they prop up the Conservative government and Stormont is not sitting and hence the issue isn't being debated in Northern Ireland.
The backstop only becomes live because a faction within the Conservative party want to force divergence from the EU. This is a choice that doesn't need to be made at this point.
That’s an entirely unsustainable system.
All governments ultimately end in failure, even Labour ones that get elected three times. I wonder if this Tory administration will do as well.
That is why the economy, properly administered, can do more for people than the government.
Having a job impacts us ordinary folk more than the BoP.
I suspect neither view holds water.
We had record spending, but not the taxes to fund it. Labour revelled in how difficult it would be for w government to reign back public spending.