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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets are still pretty solid that the UK will be out of the EU by March 29th
Will the UK leave the EU at the end of March 2019 as planned? Punters on Betfair make it a 65% chance that it will. pic.twitter.com/DubHklB6Lf
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Why is this any different from the Skripal case? Why shouldn’t we be placing immediate sanctions on the Saudi regime? The idea of treating a country which treats people like this - and this is hardly the only example of repellent behaviour by the Saudis - as our ally is grotesque.
I wish everyone a pleasant nights rest
Good night folks
So, sorry, I think this is very similar. Such behaviour is completely beyond the pale and the civilised world should call the Saudis out on it not turn a blind eye.
We will not place any restrictions on the Saudis as long as they have lots and lots money to spend/invest in the UK. We need all the cash we can get.
Oh and don't forget the campaign for Real Brexit begins in earnest on 30th March 2019.
It is all inevitable now, just batten down the hatches for a bumpy sea.
We should not be taking Saudi money. Self-respect matters more. Their money is dirty. They are not just buying bling. They use their money to spread their vile ideology which is a threat to us. If we need to sup with them it should be with a very long spoon indeed.
Putin and the Saudis are two of the best reasons for us to get on with fracking, developing green energy and trying to be as energy efficient as possible.
Tories can never win a spending war with Labour just as Labour can never win an austerity war with Con.
Let the good time roll.
And in the meantime we get to see the Tories eviscerated and humiliated for their betrayal - Win/win.
In vain though, ultimately there is no floor to deindustrialisation, how can we produce anything from flat screen TVs to aircraft parts to tyres, and sell it if our labour costs are up to 8 times greater than competitors? Ultimately, when your labour costs are that high making your product completely uncompetitive investment and renewal in your factories will dry up and owners will move the jobs overseas. But at least vassal state buys the oldies some time thinking it’s all going to be okay for their descendents.
UK didn’t decide to Brexit, old people decided to bequeath this to their dependents, driven by denial of deindustrialisation and Britain’s inevitable decline, increasing loss of sovereignty to globalisation, and the accelerated pace of multi culturalism.
history books will agree, despite all this Brexit hoo ha, it was container ships that turned Britain into a third world country.
What's the point when we won't have left anything?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-pa01-2.html
The judiciary feels unsafe, undervalued and overworked, but an inflation-shattering salary increase could still be hard to justify, Frances Gibb writes"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/all-rise-in-court-a-crisis-in-judges-morale-is-behind-call-for-60-000-pay-boost-lzr5wdvfp
She has tied herself in knots flailing around to meet EU/Irish concocted red lines. With one bound she could be free if she ditched the back-stop, and this is what must now happen. Fudge is not the answer,.
And the EU made sure German banks were ok - at the expense of Southern Europe.
Nice club.
The German demographic time bomb will reduce the nation to paupers.
She could probably stop caring about the DUP wobbling, avoid EU Ref2, avoid a General Election, get her Brexit deal through more comfortably than otherwise in all likelihood. She presents it as a difficult compromise she had to make to get a workable Brexit deal through whilst positioning herself as calling the SNP's bluff.
She knows if she gets a deal through she gets to the "deal" scenarios where there's less likelihood of a Yes vote in Indyref2 (HYUFD can quote the current state of the poll numbers). On the flipside the SNP will still think they're in decent enough shape for Yes to go into any campaign, but are torn between supporting the Tories but also voting for a least-worst Brexit deal based on their positioning till now, can say they're respecting the UK Brexit vote but want Scotland to have another say on its own basis, AND they get something that they actually want. Also as a double 6 for May, the SNP turning down the chance would alienate a lot of supporters raring for indyref2 right now.
The ERG rattle their chains about the Brexit deal & the S30, but the equation is still the same - are they confident of deposing May in a party VONC, and voting against her in large numbers in the HOC risks any or all of no Brexit at all, EU Ref2, and/or PM Corbyn.
Other than her potential for actually being able to deliver the S30 (which she doesn't actually want to do anyway), what's the downside for her? She's a can kicker, say what you need to say to get through today and worry about tomorrow...tomorrow, has been her philosophy in this whole thing.
I'm sure it's a non-starter in reality and potentially solves one problem by creating another, but that seems true for most of her options these days so what's new?
Germany will be fine post Brexit. It has had worse setbacks in the last century.
After Theresa May sells out 70% of her voters Corbyn will win a majority whenever the election is held (I assume it will be next year sometime quite soon after 29th March)
At that point the Tory Party splits in two, maybe three factions. Who knows what follows that? (and who can say what would come after a Corbyn government?)
The moment Corbyn becomes PM and the Tory Party splits all bets are off...
There’s also non national ownership sucking sovereignty and control from national governments. Multi nationals is not right word anymore as there is nothing national about them. They own something they can produce and sell, they have leverage to drive down pay and conditions, or move production elsewhere in the world.
There’s also places like Britain, Germany, whose demographic time bombs will creak their accustomed welfare systems and state spending. Future generations will be poorer.
And Brexit doesn’t supply these answers.
There may not even be answers. Like a big wave you cannot run from, you just have to jump into.
Germany is better equipped to survive the next decade, not least because it has had a massive trade surplus for years, and has access to one of the worlds biggest markets.
Remania will be ok as it is much less reliant on manufacturing than Leaverstan. For present our creative industries are world beaters. @roger will be subsidising Hartlepool for years yet, but don't expect them to be grateful.
In other news it looks as if Britain's small fishermen are kippered too:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1050880351667740677?s=19
"When the people are being beaten with a stick, they are not much happier if it is called the People's Stick."
Mikhail Bakunin
Once we are out the EU we can’t stop Denmark taking the growing fish out their waters, before they migrate into ours, we will go out to fish and there won’t be anything there!
It will be something fishy, and it will be the state of Denmark
Juncker, Macron, Trudeau and Merkel are the only real globalist world leaders left at the moment and of those only Trudeau in Canada is still holding a reasonable poll lead (Juncker of course is also facing a nationalist surge in the European Parliament elections next year). Globalism is facing a nationalist and populist left revolt across the world
How genuine refugees suffered on the Journey. The chaos the migration caused in EU. How it shredded her credibility with her own voters.
What was old west Germany has had multiculturalism for generations, but not so East Germany. It’s stoked some ugly sentiment. As soon as we hear pupils urged to grass on their teacher as soon as teacher talks politics, like how it was back in the thirties, then let that be Merkels legacy.
But Do you think electing leaders who claim their ideology is patriotism will make slightest difference to the unstoppable rise of globalisation? I don’t. Built into the Brexit vote is disenfranchised people waving their skinny fists at globalisation, but not actually doing a jot about it. The Brexit result doesn’t do a thing about globalisations impact on their lives.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/12/recordings-prove-jamal-khashoggi-killed-turkish-investigators-claim
Tricky balancing act for the Turks.....given they've evidently bugged the Saudi Consulate
Corbyn and Lopez Obrador and Sanders meanwhile promise to tax the rich and reduce privatisation.
There is nothing in itself wrong with globalisation, free trade, companies able to operate across borders and ease of travel to work and visit as a tourist has reduced global poverty and raised awareness of other cultures. However if too many gains are seen as going to the rich, immigration is seen as reducing wages and threatening cultural cohesion and companies are seen as cutting costs and avoiding tax at the expense of investing in the local area and its workers then inevitably there will be a backlash
538 gives a clearer picture with 227 Democrats and 208 Republicans ie just over 30 Democratic gains on the median forecast and the Democrats having about 9 more seats than the 218 they need for a majority to take control.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Kudos for trying to make this interesting but the Democrats are almost certain to win the House now the only question really is their victory margin.
It will likely be 2010 in reverse, the Democrats take the House but the Republicans just about manage to hold the Senate
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16979409.gordon-brown-pretty-convinced-peoples-vote-will-happen-to-give-voters-final-say-on-brexit/
The list being drawn up by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office could be used in case the UK decides to invoke the “Magnitsky amendment,” passed this year, which allows Britain to impose sanctions on foreign officials accused of human rights violations, or to apply restrictions on Saudi trade and travel in coordination with the European Union.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/uk-sanctions-saudi-arabia-missing-journalist-jamal-khashoggi-riyadh-jeremy-hunt-a8581181.html
The Apple Watch? Or cover for Turkish surveillance?
That aside, how much of your own cash would you be willing to bet Corbyn can't get a majority? Stranger things have happened. Literally a couple of point swing either away in GE19 (it's coming folks!) changes the future of the country forever.
Edit sceptical in the Apple Watch story
Perhaps Tokyo is not the best place from which to measure this?
* Deal looks doable not quite done by the deadline and everyone agrees to extend, like every EU deal in the entire history of ever
* Deal done but rejected by UK or EU parliament, extended so everyone can get their shit together
* No proper deal, but everyone wants at least some minimal agreements to mitigate the damage
* UK government falls, EU member states generously agree to give the UK a bit of time so they have someone to negotiate with
* Re-referendum, ultimately still won by Leave but needs an extension to do it
* Re-referendum, Brexit cancelled
The counter-argument is that you need action full agreement by the member states and positive action by the UK parliament (probably) to make it happen, but we're talking about a situation with no great principle at stake (what's a month or two?) where an extension saves everyone a lot of trouble and money, and nobody will want to take the blame for it.
It is worth reminding ourselves at this moment that Corbyn's response was to publish an article calling the number of dead 'a very good start' and to invite senior IRA figures to the House of Commons.
He is unfit to lick Kinnock's sandals.
But that's the sensible thing to do - book a non-EU destination - Turkey instead of Spain or Greece, the USA, Canada. Many venture even further - once had trouble pinning down a plumber who was off to Cancun for two weeks.....
Don't you mean 'EU' travel?
Is M. Barnier a closet eco-warrior? If so, he hid it well when breaking every rule in the book as French Minister for Agriculture.
In the real world, I think there would be some fancy footwork to prevent it from happening.
I know we're mainly talking about the cause of the British vote, and the reality isn't relevant to that, and I don't want to make everybody write legalistically. But this is a mistaken perception exists because people make false claims, as you did, so if I see the false claim, I'll correct it (when I can be arsed).
PS. Less direct exposure to British media is probably actually better for understanding the reality of non-UK European politics, because British media is consistently, astonishingly terrible at reporting it. Basically everything has to be hung around 3 or 4 basic narratives, that are almost entirely detached from reality. We actually have much better, in-depth coverage here.
What happened at the crossover point?