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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover
It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move
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Hurrah for split ticketing.
Someone fire up the KLAXON.
Time for a Judge led inquiry into these vanilla gremlins.
This might seem an opportune time for Scottish Labour to make a fresh start with the voters by talking about the issues that matter to them. That is, after all, why members chose Richard Leonard as leader 11 months ago. He was a break from the leadership class defined by the acrimonious politics of 2014. Leonard, his partisans argued, could take Labour back to its roots.
In that sense, he has proved a sterling success. In its heyday, Scottish Labour was home to so many internecine grudges and bloody vendettas that John Smith House could have doubled as the Corleone family mansion.
Now, the factions and in-fighting are back. Don Leonardo isn’t the most impressive of godfathers — every time he gives a speech, he makes the voters an offer they can’t remember — but this mild-mannered union fixer has done more to undermine unity within Scottish Labour than their political opponents. Leonard should be required to register his leadership as an in-kind donation to the SNP.
https://stephendaisley.com/2018/10/08/richard-leonard-is-turning-scottish-labour-into-corbynism-with-a-kilt/
Labour have nothing to say to the Scots that the SNP are not already doing and the Scon lead by Ruth Davidson are the pro union party.
It does not help for an Englishman to be leader of Scot labour either.
I could vote SNP in Scotland but no to independence. Indeed there are many SNP supporters with the same view
However, this anger has not grown to any extent that they want Independence
They just feel the SNP are the party to protect Scottish interests.
Labour do not get a hearing
This is a bit of a Westminster-centric view.
- The SNP won the 2007 Holyrood election, by fractions
- The 2007 local elections in Scotland were effectively a tie (SNP won most seats, Labour most votes)
- The SNP won the 2009 European election, by 29 to 20 per cent
- The SNP won the 2011 Holyrood election in 2011 with 44% to Labour's 26%;
- The SNP won the 2012 local elections, albeit by nothing like as much;
- The SNP won the 2014 European election by 29% to 26%.
The reality is that, other than the 2010 UK general election, Labour's dominance had long gone. What the referendum did was turn what had previously been a one-off, in the 2011 Holyrood election - a big SNP lead and share - into the new norm.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1049663786855161857
This guy:
https://twitter.com/ystriya/status/710260808115159045
How does your family want things to proceed? Is their desire to influence the UK proposals or for divergence for Scotland?
The interesting question to me is whether the upsurge in Republican enthusiasm we're seeing due to the Kavanagh nomination farce will flow into real votes in the House of Representatives. My gut says it's probably bought them a couple of percent, but I'd reckon the Dems are still narrow favourites (given how gerrymandered it is).
Of course the fishing communities want out of the EU and if the fishermen do not get that a lot of Scon seats will fall. I am aware of lifelong SNP supporters who support the Scon for this very reason.
I do not think the English are doing themselves any favours, especially JRM and Boris. Boris would be a disaster for the Scons
Allison Pearson"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/life/pc-keith-palmer-let-police-chief-not-brave-enough-help-save/
"White liberalism is dying
It’s too liberal for a majority of whites, yet too distant from the concerns of most non-whites
Daniel McCarthy"
https://spectator.us/2018/10/white-liberalism/
From the early 1990s right through to Indyref1, there seemed to be a section of voters who voted Labour in UK general elections, but voted SNP for everything else: the SNP also performed better in the 1999 and 2003 Holyrood elections than they did for Westminster. Even in the mid-90s, Labour ran utterly rampant across the UK in the 1994 European elections, but the SNP ran them quite close in Scotland. Then the referendum happened and it converted that chunk of SNP sympathisers into SNP Westminster voters for the first time.
The question is whether 2017 showed that that chunk of "Labour for Westminster, SNP elsewhere" is returning. My guess is that it is a little bit, and that Labour could gain 5-10 extra Westminster seats from the SNP next time, but that the SNP should stay fairly comfortable in Scottish Parliament elections.
https://twitter.com/bbaschuk/status/1049690877004791808
You can either have a free trade agreement with the US or with China, but not with both.
So devolution is irrelevant to them.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/news/7452689/london-mayor-shaun-bailey-called-coconut-by-racist-lefties/amp/
For Britain to win Russia has to lose - and it's losing.
As long as the SNP win most seats in Scotland that means the Tories likely won most seats across the UK and Labour would need close to a 10% lead for an majority
http://www.kenttraffic.info/?sid=KCC181008_29&E=555849&N=158109&lyt=planned
That's one way to get some extra lanes on your local motorway.
Survation had Yes on 52% with No Deal on Sunday, Panelbase had Yes on 48% with No Deal
Firstly, President Trump is simply not a fan of free trade. To his mind, when you and I enter into a voluntary agreement to exchange goods or services for money - well, there's one winner and one loser.
Secondly, existing agreements mean nothing. Like contracts with subcontractors, they are things to be torn up if you gain a momentary advantage. Treaty says you can't impose tariffs on country with which you have agreement? F*ck it.
Thirdly, and most fundamentally, other countries are either subordinate to the US, or a threat to it.
What malcolmg makes of it I don't know.
con 302 seats
lab 269 seats
LD 17 seats
SNP 40 seats
UKIP 0 seats
PC 3 seats
Green 1 seat
NI 18 seats
Tories 24 short of a majority. Probably minority Lab government.
Just heard the Welsh government saying they will not prevent 12% council tax rises next year. That and monthly bin collections all courtesy of Welsh labour
When I lived in Scotland I was half welsh, half english but got over the problem by marrying a Scots lass
1) The SNP are Nazis and must be stopped, nationalism is disgusting
2) As a pure blood Scot it is outrageous I do not have a vote in the SindyRef.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Taniel/status/1049706557074747392
Our standard of living today is based on this cooperation - provision of health, education, defence, infrastructure and development of science and technology. Competition is a small tactical component.
But in the West, there is a massive move to personal selfishness and competition. It is not only financial selfishness (lower taxes and poorer public services) but competition to be the more perfect human being showing off our toned bodies and perfect features on Instagram.
We are going to be swamped and overtaken by the East who are more collective - unless we wake up and stop the zero-sum games. We in the West are in danger of being the new Neanderthals.
You can't fudge a customs union, or two different regulatory systems.
That's exactly what I said.
So, if the UK had an FTA with the US, it would not be able to have one with China.
Why?
Because firms set up local subsidiaries and transfer technology to them to circumvent tariffs. It's too complicated to have your key component built in California shipped to China (incurring tariffs) and then shipped back again (getting slapped with tariffs on tariffs).