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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : October 10th 2013

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  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I'm ashamed to say that having been called away to London I was unable to support the cause in my home seat of Tweeddale West!

    Mark Senior is predicting a Lib Dem hold in that seat. As you actually live there, what is your view?

    Stuart! How are you? Long time no hear. To be absolutely honest I've been away from it too much to make a definitive call It's probably one of the LD's strongest seats in Scotland now but it's the sort of place where the individual candidate can make a big difference. I wouldn't read too much into it either way, it's like elections in much of rural Scotland - local usually triumphs over national!
    I'm very well thank you. Kind of you to ask.

    Yes, much of my experience of Scottish local politics is in rural areas, and many voters ignore party labels and look at the credentials of the individual candidates. I very much doubt that Mark Senior knows much about Keith Cockburn, Morag Kerr or Nancy Norman, but perhaps you do?

    I wonder if the Labour candidate Veronica McTernan is any relative of the notorious smear-merchant John McTernan?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/john-mcternan-playing-nasty-card-might-get-results-1-1607494
    FWIW , all the entrants in the Vote 2012 by election forecasting competition have gone for a Lib Dem gain in Tweedale but we won't find out till tomorrow as the count does not start till 10 am .


  • Off to spend the family Royal Mail windfall.... couple of buttons and some new paperclips for the office should do it.

    Would those be gold-plated paperclips? Today's grey market has been suggesting an opening price tomorrow of > 400p, which on an allotment of 227 shares would produce a profit after dealing costs of around £145.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,758
    TGOHF said:

    Ed Vs Energy Providers

    Mission accomplished

    Ed v pension funds
    Ed vs 000s of employees in energy sector
    Ed vs suppliers of key infrastructure
    He's a Marxist
    It won't work
    Its a Con
    Its Len to blame
    There will be blackouts
    Its a Con
    Help us Dacre
    Lets give more shares away
    He's weak
    Its a Con

    Oh shit we give in it was a pollitically astute idea why didnt we think of that George

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RedRag1 said:

    Oh no, the country is doooooooomed. Even The Scum has joined the Marxist conspiracy. Leave the energy companies alone, it's a free market, they are serving their customers well.

    Put the crack pipe down and open a window to let the fumes out.

  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527

    TGOHF said:

    Ed Vs Energy Providers

    Mission accomplished

    Ed v pension funds
    Ed vs 000s of employees in energy sector
    Ed vs suppliers of key infrastructure
    He's a Marxist
    It won't work
    Its a Con
    Its Len to blame
    There will be blackouts
    Its a Con
    Help us Dacre
    Lets give more shares away
    He's weak
    Its a Con

    Oh shit we give in it was a pollitically astute idea why didnt we think of that George

    Don't forget all these Marxist left wing rags such as The Express and the Scum attacking these lovely energy companies on their front pages tomorrow. Ed M ....out of touch again.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If Ed wants to give people cheap energy why doesnt the Labour party set up a non profit enetgy supplier - Lab power??

    They could get a start up loan from the Co op bank.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Alfie doing a great job on QT!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Julie Porksen has been selected as Lib Dem PPC for Berwick Upon Tweed to succeed Alan Beith .
  • tim said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Mail fp reporting no full driving licence until 19. And what's a 'tramp stamp'? *innocent face*


    Is it just tattooed numbers the Mail historically likes then?
    Found that quote yet timmy?
    Your quote saying people taking jobs need ID in reply to a point about people using the NHS I took to mean you think people should provide their papers when they use the NHS is that not what you meant?
    No you didn't 'take it to mean' it that way. You made up a lie - it's what you do when you have no idea what you're talking about.

    Now - find the quote where I said people taking jobs in the UK need ID, my employer requires it, maybe yours doesn't. Make sure you do that after you've found the first quote you made up of course.

    You are a liar, nothing more, nothing less. Why do you feel the need to make up quotes that I haven't made. It's genuinelly fascinating.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,758
    Heat or Eat?

    Oh dear bad news for the blues
  • 16.6% turnout in Salford contest
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The Labour non profit energy co is a winning idea.

    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions, retiring at 55 and school teacher holidays it could still undercut those evil profit making firms.

    And use only wind power - huzzah !

    Come on lefties - show those evil corporations how to do it....
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Alfie blowing Goves trumpet on Europe on QT.....manoeuvres under way.
  • Heat or Eat?

    Oh dear bad news for the blues

    So give us the easy options to sort things out. A grateful nation awaits.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:


    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions

    Most electricity generation and distribution companies are staffed by Unite members and most of them have final salary pensions.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions

    Most electricity generation and distribution companies are staffed by Unite members and most of them have final salary pensions.
    No wonder the power bills are so expensive. ....
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    @Neil

    Ward branch nominations in Greenwich and Woolwich should be as follow (if I've reconstructed well all runners' announcements and celebrations on twitter)

    Charlton ward: Matthew Pennicook, Annie Keys (female)
    Woolwich Common: Len Duvall, Annie Keys (female)
    Greenwich West: Matthew Pennycook, Kathy Peach (female), Annie Keys (BAME)
    Blackheath Woolacombe: Matthew Pennycook, Kathy Peach (female), Annie Keys (BAME)
    Woolwich Riverside: Len Duvall, Annie Keys (female)

    2 wards left
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions

    Most electricity generation and distribution companies are staffed by Unite members and most of them have final salary pensions.
    No wonder the power bills are so expensive. ....
    It's all part of a Marxist plot being pushed by The Red Cross and The Trussell Trust ....don't you know.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    Poor Prescott Jr doesnt seem to be doing too well...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RedRag1 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions

    Most electricity generation and distribution companies are staffed by Unite members and most of them have final salary pensions.
    No wonder the power bills are so expensive. ....
    It's all part of a Marxist plot being pushed by The Red Cross and The Trussell Trust ....don't you know.
    You been sniffing Windolene ?
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    TGOHF said:

    RedRag1 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:


    Staffed by Unite members with final salary pensions

    Most electricity generation and distribution companies are staffed by Unite members and most of them have final salary pensions.
    No wonder the power bills are so expensive. ....
    It's all part of a Marxist plot being pushed by The Red Cross and The Trussell Trust ....don't you know.
    You been sniffing Windolene ?
    Reading The Heil.
  • tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Mail fp reporting no full driving licence until 19. And what's a 'tramp stamp'? *innocent face*


    Is it just tattooed numbers the Mail historically likes then?
    Found that quote yet timmy?
    Your quote saying people taking jobs need ID in reply to a point about people using the NHS I took to mean you think people should provide their papers when they use the NHS is that not what you meant?
    No you didn't 'take it to mean' it that way. You made up a lie - it's what you do when you have no idea what you're talking about.

    Now - find the quote where I said people taking jobs in the UK need ID, my employer requires it, maybe yours doesn't. Make sure you do that after you've found the first quote you made up of course.

    You are a liar, nothing more, nothing less. Why do you feel the need to make up quotes that I haven't made. It's genuinelly fascinating.
    Haven't made up anything, if I misinterpreted what you meant tell me who should be required to produce which papers when they access different areas of the NHS
    OK if you're not a liar (which we both know you are) find where've I've mention the NHS at all tonight. Exact quote please, an apology if you can't will suffice.
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    Alfie getting the Gove trumpet back out on QT. Wonder how many more times will Alfie mention Gove tonight?
  • Salford - Weaste & Seedley

    Lab 803
    UKIP 280
    Con 240
    Ind 96
    Green 42
    BNP 29
    TUSC 21



  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Salford result Lab hold Lab 803 UKIP 280 Con 240 Ind 96 Green 42 BNP 29 TUSC 21
    Previous result in a by election in June 2013 Lab 785 UKIP 401 Con 260 Green 80 BNP 74 IND 64 LD 58 TUSC 30 IND 15
  • RedRag1RedRag1 Posts: 527
    HAHAHA "You didn't mention Michael Gove for the first time tonight" - Dimbleby to Alfie
  • tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    tim said:

    Carola said:

    Mail fp reporting no full driving licence until 19. And what's a 'tramp stamp'? *innocent face*


    Is it just tattooed numbers the Mail historically likes then?
    Found that quote yet timmy?
    Your quote saying people taking jobs need ID in reply to a point about people using the NHS I took to mean you think people should provide their papers when they use the NHS is that not what you meant?
    No you didn't 'take it to mean' it that way. You made up a lie - it's what you do when you have no idea what you're talking about.

    Now - find the quote where I said people taking jobs in the UK need ID, my employer requires it, maybe yours doesn't. Make sure you do that after you've found the first quote you made up of course.

    You are a liar, nothing more, nothing less. Why do you feel the need to make up quotes that I haven't made. It's genuinelly fascinating.
    Haven't made up anything, if I misinterpreted what you meant tell me who should be required to produce which papers when they access different areas of the NHS
    OK if you're not a liar (which we both know you are) find where've I've mention the NHS at all tonight. Exact quote please, an apology if you can't will suffice.

    Are you always this tedious when you're drinking?
    Ah another smear! What's you're definition of drinking? A whole glass and a half shocking.

    For someone who brings tedium to unprcecended levels that's hard to take. Just find the quotes tim. It shouldn't be hard. I gave you the chance to apologise, you chose not to take it. You're a liar who makes things up, why not just admit it?
  • French polls show surge in support for far-right National Front

    The National Front is not at all far-right. What the Guardian means by that label is that they disapprove of them, but in many ways they are well to the left of Hollande and even of Melanchon, advocating nationalisation, protectionism and even more entrenchment of worker's rights.
  • Royston - Barnsley
    Lab 1143 UKIP 393 Con 100 BNP 28 Eng Dem 32


  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Barnsley Lab hold Lab 1143 UKIP 393 Con 100 Eng Dem 32 BNP 28
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,316
    edited October 2013
    Hmmm, UKIP second placed in two of tonight's by-elections.

    How interesting...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Results so far:

    Andrea 2 - Mark Senior 0

    Come on, Mark! Pull one back for England! ;)
  • South Staffs and West Lancs are Con hold. Full figures not yet available
  • West Lancashire - Parbold
    Con 554 Lab 461 UKIP 103
  • @SeanT

    This should be your next blog entry

    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 1h

    THE TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Snowden leaks 'worst blow to British intelligence ever'" #skypapaers

    pic.twitter.com/IAvP9iTaOC

    The Times story is available here

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/defence/article3892012.ece
  • Ancoats & Clayton By-Election Pirates outpoll the LDs and nearly the Tories

    Labour 1239

    UKIP 166

    Green 89

    Conservative 82

    Pirate 79

    BNP 58

    Lib Dem 44

    Turnout 13.5%
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    Manchester - Ancoats & Clayton
    Labour 1239 UKIP 166 Green 89 Con 82 Pirate 79 BNP 58 Lib Dem 44

    Turnout 13.5%
  • tim said:

    Royston - Barnsley
    Lab 1143 UKIP 393 Con 100 BNP 28 Eng Dem 32


    BNP from 12% in 2010 to < 2% now
    So you've found the time to calculate that, but not to find your made up quotes. Come on now liar! I won't be letting this rest until the apology is fothcoming.
  • Crikey did I beat Andrea on the Ancoats results?

    Wow!
  • SeanT said:

    Consider this, pb-ers.

    Judging by internet shares (a reasonable metric) as of this evening, the most influential political correspondent in the UK is.... me.

    Heh.

    No wonder the country is in the mess that we're in.

    ::innocent face::

    (You know I'm only joking, I remember the giddiness I experienced when the likes of Adam Boulton and Martin Boon started tweeting my threads on PB)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    SeanT said:

    Consider this, pb-ers.

    Judging by internet shares (a reasonable metric) as of this evening, the most influential political correspondent in the UK is.... me.

    Heh.

    That is assuming they are not sharing your article in disgust ;-)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Labour have gained Glasgow Govan from SNP
  • Labour have gained Glasgow Govan from SNP

    As a Unionist I am delighted! Fair play to Labour!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    SeanT said:



    Disgust is still influence. IF you are so annoyed by an article you feel forced to retweet it or Facebook share it, then you are spreading the meme, despite yourself - like sneezers spreading the Flu in 1919.

    I promise to take my new and onerous responsibility seriously. At least until my next blog attracts 4 comments, 2 rewteets, and gets me sacked for irrelevance.

    That is true, although it implies your ideas are as insidious as a deadly pathogen!

    Still, you aren't quite at the same level of exposure as penis beaker, yet... LOL.

    ;-)
  • SeanT said:

    Consider this, pb-ers.

    Judging by internet shares (a reasonable metric) as of this evening, the most influential political correspondent in the UK is.... me.

    Heh.

    Hmmm.... Not bad for a Primrose Hill Lefty PRETENDING to be a goose-stepping Nazi!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,260
    edited October 2013
    I might do a guest thread entitled

    "Could SeanT, the UK's most influential political correspondent, swing the 2015 GE for the Tories?"
  • I might do a guest thread entitled

    "Could SeanT, the UK's most influential political correspondent, swing the 2015 GE for the Tories?"

    Certainly his piece in yesterday's Daily Telegraph was compelling, but then again he was preaching to the converted.
  • I might do a guest thread entitled

    "Could SeanT, the UK's most influential political correspondent, swing the 2015 GE for the Tories?"

    Certainly his piece in yesterday's Daily Telegraph was compelling, but then again he was preaching to the converted.
    If Dave has any chance to retaining power in 2015, one of the main elements he needs to win the support of those currently supporting UKIP.

    Sean has recently expressed his views that those Kippers need to back Dave to stop Ed becoming PM, something he himself will do.

    Say, if half of the current Kippers in the most recent YouGov went to the Tories, the Tories would be ahead of Lab on the VI.

    I did write back in May wondering if Ed would be Dave's best antidote to the UKIP surge.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Absolutely bang on the money with that comment Max. We used to have a very popular local Conservative councillor who certainly attracted a lot of cross party support in our ward. So much so, a couple of local Scottish Socialists were quite happy to admit that they voted Tory in the locals purely as a vote for him. :)

    I'm ashamed to say that having been called away to London I was unable to support the cause in my home seat of Tweeddale West!

    Mark Senior is predicting a Lib Dem hold in that seat. As you actually live there, what is your view?

    Stuart! How are you? Long time no hear. To be absolutely honest I've been away from it too much to make a definitive call It's probably one of the LD's strongest seats in Scotland now but it's the sort of place where the individual candidate can make a big difference. I wouldn't read too much into it either way, it's like elections in much of rural Scotland - local usually triumphs over national!
  • The turnouts in locals seem to be shocking. If under 20% it really is only the totally committed who are voting. If 40% plus voted would the percentages be the same? I doubt it.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited October 2013
    'Tis a pity that Dave & Co. can't sign up Sean to help them fight the 2015 GE, but then of course he's not a Tory. Perhaps for the greater good (or the lesser of two evils) he could be persuaded to adopt the mantle for the next 18 months.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    Hi PfP, I am not sure that it was just a case of Seant preaching to the converted on this occasion, his blog post really did strike a chord to the extent that it appears to have gone viral on other social networks. I genuinely believe that the ever increasing success of Sean's blog articles could yet end up with him being offered an opinion column in print by one of the national newspapers. We have luckily been enjoying Sean's contributions here for years for free. :)

    I might do a guest thread entitled

    "Could SeanT, the UK's most influential political correspondent, swing the 2015 GE for the Tories?"

    Certainly his piece in yesterday's Daily Telegraph was compelling, but then again he was preaching to the converted.
  • I note that with no Glasgow First candidate those Labour people who flirted with another option but could not go to SNP may have returned to the fold in Govan.
    SNP had 33% last time, Labour and Labour offshoot Glasgow First were on 47% combined.
    Note vote transfer methodology too. In depth analysis of results will be interesting even if low turnout.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013

    I note that with no Glasgow First candidate those Labour people who flirted with another option but could not go to SNP may have returned to the fold in Govan.

    The No Bedroom Tax candidate was one of the former deselected Cllrs. He stood as Independent rather than Labour First in 2012 though (the one with 644 votes).

  • Fitalass, you're right. Whether you agree with him or not, SeanT has been a great asset to this site for many years and far and away its outstanding poster.
    You should be careful what you wish for - it would be a severe loss to PB.com were he to leave for greener and richer pastures.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited October 2013
    First prefs in Govan

    Lab 2055
    SNP 1424
    No Bedroom Tax 446
    Con 215
    UKIP 113
    Grn 112
    Ind L 103
    LD 73
    Chr 60
    Ind R52
    Commies 35
    Sol 28
    Britannica 19
    Scottish Democratic Alliance 1

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    On the other hand, not sure that this a PR headline win for the charity in a country which has such a robust welfare system! It could end up rebounding on them to the extent it portrays them in too much of a political light, especially when they should be deemed above politics and completely neutral as a far reaching global charity.

    The front page of the Indy won't make for pleasant reading for the government

    Sky News ‏@SkyNews 45s

    INDEPENDENT FRONT PAGE: "Red Cross launches emergency food aid plan for UK's hungry" #skypapers

    pic.twitter.com/b9OY2iXQhx

  • It struck me when I read SeanT's piece in yesterday's Daily Telegraph that it was essentially both a compilation and a carefully honed distillation of a number of his posts on PB.com over recent weeks and months - it would be interesting to hear if he agrees.
  • An example perhaps of a left wing newspaper promoting a left wing charity - the net impact is therefore probably negligible.
  • BTW, what's the Indy's current circulation - last time I looked it was falling alarmingly - is it expected to survive?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Although that headline may fit neatly into the agenda of this newspaper, its not a good idea for any charity that's whole image is founded on its global neutrality. Look at the situation with the RSPCA recently, its supposed to be the leading animal welfare charity that delivers on the ground for the most vulnerable animals in need. But lately its becoming more notable for its high profile and 'expensive' legal campaigns that can be regarded as far too politically linked.
    Telegraph - RSPCA deputy leader warns 'too political' campaigns threaten charity's future

    An example perhaps of a left wing newspaper promoting a left wing charity - the net impact is therefore probably negligible.

  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    fitalass said:

    Although that headline may fit neatly into the agenda of this newspaper, its not a good idea for any charity that's whole image is founded on its global neutrality

    absolutely. the whole raison d'etre of the red cross is to be neutral, isn't it? they're likely to damage their reputation and thus future access to real distasters.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited October 2013
    I am hoping that Seant among others do end up adopting this mantle for the next 18 months as Ed Miliband lurches further to the left as the GE approaches. For all this current Westminster chatter that Ed Miliband is finally setting the agenda with his energy price freeze, it looks like the big energy companies are going to do exactly what was feared as a result, put up their prices now. Thanks Ed, even on the Opposition benches the Labour party opens its mouth and it ends up costing us all more in our pockets, its a special gift they seem to have!

    On the other hand, the political narrative on the help to buy scheme might end up being far more out of sync with the public who seem very positive towards it. We keep getting told how this latest generation of first time buyers had been priced out of the market, well here is a scheme that is going to help them get that chance to get on the housing ladder as well as boosting the house building sector. As a feel good factor, it doesn't get better than having the confidence to go housing hunting in the UK.

    'Tis a pity that Dave & Co. can't sign up Sean to help them fight the 2015 GE, but then of course he's not a Tory. Perhaps for the greater good (or the lesser of two evils) he could be persuaded to adopt the mantle for the next 18 months.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrea has probably already reported this - LDs in Berwick-upon-Tweed select Julie Porksen:

    http://www.julieporksen.com/about/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    LDs are doing well with selecting women candidates in seats they hold: they've done so in Hazel Grove, Mid Dorset and now Berwick.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Marr wishes he had gone to art school instead of becoming a journalist:

    A bit like Hitler then?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,112
    JohnLoony said:

    AndyJS said:

    Andrew Marr wishes he had gone to art school instead of becoming a journalist:

    A bit like Hitler then?
    Titter, this made me laugh more than it probably should have!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Labour have gained Glasgow Govan from SNP

    As a Unionist I am delighted! Fair play to Labour!
    So am I. But every time Labour gain one from Con we say "mid- term govt- what did you expect?"
This discussion has been closed.