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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Chequers is dead, so should Labour offer a ‘people’s vote’?

As Labour heads to Liverpool, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the polling and ask whether it is in Labour’s interests to offer another vote on Brexit. They lay out the case for and against and debate what happens next.

Read the full story here

GIN1138

I think Theresa may be having Regrexit over Salzburg,,,

CarlottaVance

"Chequers is dead":

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1043077012657725441

grabcocque

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

archer101au

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

murali_s said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TOPPING said:

V nice Big G; sad to say or perhaps it's just as well you don't get to say what the "British character" is. Your post, understandably, is desperate. Because you have realised finally what Brexit means - no longer a rich man's plaything but undermining real people who can least afford it.

So what if you and your family have had enough? Now you want to walk away? And Airbus? And the rest?

This is a gruelling negotiation with an entity who at every stage has told us what Brexit would and could actually mean. Archie may have realised this, so did many others. It's reality bites time.

I would take a chill pill if I were you - the British public has voted to f&ck the nation (cf voting in a Labour government) and those of us on the losing side must just suck it up.

So are you saying the British character is not one of fair play and decency. I am not desperate just angry at the behavior of the EU

It is TM deal or no deal for me and I would expect for many

Don't be angry at the EU. Be angry at the disingenuous lying politicians that inhabit the Conservative party.

And in labour but my anger with the EU is the way they belittled our Prime Minister and it would be the same if it had been any other Prime Minister. I see no reason to roll over to them

How did they belittle her? They disagreed with her in public on a point of substance. That's a failure of diplomacy.

Come on. I don't like TM and I hate Chequers, but I won't stand to see the UK PM treated like that. I question her judgement but her behaviour has been impeccable. If the EU had wanted to reject Chequers there were a million more appropriate ways of going about it. Their failure of diplomacy.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

grabcocque

CarlottaVance said:

"Chequers is dead":

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1043077012657725441

i.e. Chequers lives as long as it looks EXACTLY like what the EU wanted all along and especially as long as May makes a humiliating volte face on her "red lines" and accepts total ECJ jurisdiction and the integrity of the single market, and the utter repudiation of everything she represents?

Not a big ask then.

archer101au

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

I am wondering if she will resign. Maybe at the conference. Everyone has a limit.

Foxy

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

FeersumEnjineeya

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Macron was speaking the truth, but people prefer lies.

CarlottaVance

FeersumEnjineeya said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

Why would PeoplesVote think it smart to promote his comments.

They're more interested in saying 'we were right, you were wrong' than winning a second vote.

JonathanD

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Macron was speaking the truth, but people prefer lies.

'For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear.' :-)

edmundintokyo

Still listening to the podcast but my immediate thought is that Labour need to get on the news talking about something that doesn't involve Jews, and it seems like spending a while airing both sides of the argument about a re-referendum would do the job.

murali_s

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

He was speaking the truth. Yes I know it hurts but it's the truth.

We are up sh*t creek and the best that you and the like minded fools you quote from is to blame dirty foreigners for the parlous state of this country.

FFS I give up with people like you!

grabcocque

CarlottaVance said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

Why would PeoplesVote think it smart to promote his comments.

They're more interested in saying 'we were right, you were wrong' than winning a second vote.

Yes, I think we're moving towards letting the gammons reap the whirlwind of their own stupidity. I think that it's an idea that has merits.

The British body politic is starting to realise, as a whole, that actions have consequences. This, they've decided, is just Not Cricket and completely unfair.

CarlottaVance

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Macron was speaking the truth, but people prefer lies.

So why are PeoplesVote pushing it? They keep trying to prove they're cleverer than the ghastly proles Leave voters, than persuade them of the merits of staying in the EU.

CarlottaVance

FeersumEnjineeya said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

He's also trying to distract from the Senate enquiry into his "bodyguard" and his dire poll ratings.

TOPPING

Gerald Batten telling UKIP Conference (me neither) that the British people are decent, fair, upstanding....

Has anyone seen Big G???

Dura_Ace

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Macron was speaking the truth, but people prefer lies.

He's a terrific speaker in French. That's how you do le registre soutenu, mes amis.

Foxy

CarlottaVance said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

He's also trying to distract from the Senate enquiry into his "bodyguard" and his dire poll ratings.

Polling doesn't matter when years away from the next French elections. We do not get to choose those on the other side.

CarlottaVance

murali_s said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

FFS I give up with people like you!

For this relief much thanks.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1043096415247982592

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1043024527100452864

HYUFD

If there is no deal it makes sense for Labour to join the LDs and demand a 'People's Vote'.

If on the other hand a BINO transition period is agreed it makes much less sense

HYUFD

Gerard Batten at UKIP conference 'We are going to hit Remainers hard'

CarlottaVance

Interesting way of looking at things:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1043048147327574016

Pity not enough self-identified as 'evil'.....

kle4

I am sure they will, I don't see the downside for them as they can fudge being some kind of leave or remain, and since the gov needs to split for it to happen it's all upside.

grabcocque

Also, I have decided that I somewhat fancy the savage Insta-DILF himself, Donald Tusk.

Is that weird?

Dura_Ace

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting way of looking at things:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1043048147327574016

Pity not enough self-identified as 'evil'.....

The missing bottom three are easy:

JRM - Gove - Farage

Stereotomy

Whoops, I didn't notice the last thread was long dead when I posted this:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This morning I have had time to consider the events of yesterday and my reaction to them.

The one constant in the British character is a desire for fair play and decency and the EU leaders failed that test yesterday. They showed that they are a little better than children, laughing smugly as they humiliated the female Prime Minister of a sovereign state, a group of men huddled closely together bearing down on her, as has been displayed on the front pages of most newspapers today.

Tusk thinks it is funny to publicly offer her a tray of cakes with the cherries removed while they all giggle like children, Macron parrots Adonis’s line word for word, and Juncker’s makes his normal pathetic and disingenuous words of welcome.

I have had enough of them and not only my wife but my family Whatsapp messages are equally furious with them and all back TM sticking to her guns or walking away.

They think they are so clever but they misjudged the British when they think they can attack with glee our Prime Minister and I would expect this misjudgment will rebound in ways they do not expect.

The question now is do we want to have anything to do with them other than trade which if necessary will be on WTO and right now I would imagine a resounding voice of be gone would rise from the Country.

If the second referendum (dishonest people’s vote) campaign think they will have even a remote chance of getting a referendum, far less winning, they are not facing how much the EU will now be despised.

They had their chance yesterday to act professionally and negotiate accordingly and instead they acted out an ambush and put turbo boosters under the ERG and Farage. I have apologised to Aussie Archer for some of my disagreements with him as yesterday’s events seem to have shown he was on the ball with a lot of his posts

This is a very sad day for the whole of Europe and I hope the Irish PM is ready for the consequences of a hard Brexit and his land bridge to Europe closed.

They have way overplayed their hand and there will be consequences for them and especially many tens of thousands of EU workers

Chequers was DOA. Pretending otherwise is nothing but a scam that May was perpetrating on her own party. There's only one project she's ever cared about and it's not Brexit, it's Operation Keep May In Power. If it took some dramatics from the EU to stop her from recklessly running down the clock even further then we should be grateful.

I get the impression from your comments that you see May as a fundamentally decent person doing her best in impossibly difficult circumstances. And as beset on all sides by enemies as she is, you feel a chivalrous protectiveness towards her. That's admirable, but I think it might be warping your perspective.

Cookie

CarlottaVance said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1043058739484471296

Why would Macron be remotely interested in Brexit voters? He's talking to the French electorate.

Why would PeoplesVote think it smart to promote his comments.

They're more interested in saying 'we were right, you were wrong' than winning a second vote.

I don't think they think the outcome of a second referendum is any doubt. Just like they didn't think the result of a first referendum was in any doubt. The only people they talk about Europe with agree with them, so they underestimate the number of people who disagree with them, and they are unable or unwilling to understand the reasons why people voted against the EU, so they ascribe it to ignorance or spite.

Stereotomy

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting way of looking at things:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1043048147327574016

Pity not enough self-identified as 'evil'.....

The Neutral picks are all really strange, which makes me think very few people identified as Neutral.

Big_G_NorthWales

TOPPING said:

Gerald Batten telling UKIP Conference (me neither) that the British people are decent, fair, upstanding....

Has anyone seen Big G???

I am at home here in North Wales and I did not write his speech, maybe he saw my post !!!!!

rottenborough

edmundintokyo said:

Still listening to the podcast but my immediate thought is that Labour need to get on the news talking about something that doesn't involve Jews, and it seems like spending a while airing both sides of the argument about a re-referendum would do the job.

Labour are too busy being eaten alive by Momentum.

See this, from retiring NEC member Ann Black:

"The Times We Live In

But underlying the whole open/mandatory reselection argument is the fact that a significant number of members hate Labour MPs, individually and collectively , especially for trying to get rid of Jeremy in 2016, and would be happy to purge the lot of them. Just one of the Momentum mails, sadly not untypical, from member Sue Hyett (she is happy to be named) is headed Back Stabbing Fat Cats and says:

“There is no home in Labour for these incumbents we need reselection not jobs that allow you to stick your nose in the trough for the rest of your working career.”

The party constitution says, in Clause I, that :

“its purpose is to organise and maintain in Parliament and in the country a political Labour Party”

and it is increasingly difficult to do both.

And finally a comment in support of an applicant for membership:

“Saying that your MP is a wanker and being generally critical of him in front of other party members may be disrespectful, but if everyone who insulted each other thus were to be asked to leave the party, there would be no-one left.”

This is not the kinder, gentler politics which Jeremy promised in 2015. The next report, after conference, will be my last as a member of the NEC, and it is now for others to find a way back from the edge."

(my boldings)

https://www.annblack.co.uk/reports_of_meetings/nec-meeting-18-september-2018/

Stereotomy

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1043094328955088896

Slackbladder

I'm got a bad feeling about this....

welshowl

archer101au said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

I am wondering if she will resign. Maybe at the conference. Everyone has a limit.

I wondered that too, if not before.

If she does have to abandon Chequers or something that can be spun as at least Chequers minus, surely she has to have someone else do the next move whatever it is. Having hung her hat on Chequers and lost two senior ministers ( yes I know, but if it is sunk totally, they’ve been proved right, even if possibly for a different set of reasons to the ones they were thinking), surely she cannot be the one who says “ok it’s now plan B”.

Floater

Slackbladder said:

I'm got a bad feeling about this....

Relax - Mike is back from Holiday :-)

murali_s

HYUFD said:

Gerard Batten at UKIP conference 'We are going to hit Remainers hard'

Bring it on. We are not scared of pea-brained racists like Gerard Batten!

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

hamiltonace

Is it time to bet on no brexit in 2019?

stodge

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

welshowl

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Or Elizabeth Montgomery?

(showing my age)

williamglenn

welshowl said:

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Or Elizabeth Montgomery?

(showing my age)

@EssexIt would no doubt suggest staunch Brexiteer Elizabeth Hurley.

MarqueeMark

welshowl said:

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Or Elizabeth Montgomery?

(showing my age)

Or Elizabeth I?

Stereotomy

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

This article from Peston is interesting: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:p4O61br6TisJ:https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/chequers-goes-pop-theresa-mays-salzburg-catastrophe/+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

“We were so ready to help” says one. But she and her officials made two serious miscalculations, they say:

1) She was too aggressive, both in her article setting out what she wants in the German newspaper, Die Welt, and at last night’s dinner;

2) She was naive in thinking she could appeal above the heads of Barnier, Juncker and Tusk to EU leaders, when those leaders have more pressing issues on their plates and delegated the substance of talks to Barnier for a good reason.

Which means May has driven Brexit talks into a dark cul de sac, and goodness alone knows how she’ll get her – and the UK – out of it.

welshowl

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Or Elizabeth Montgomery?

(showing my age)

@EssexIt would no doubt suggest staunch Brexiteer Elizabeth Hurley.

Oo now you’re talking.....

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1043097155014197249

CarlottaVance

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Interesting way of looking at things:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1043048147327574016

Pity not enough self-identified as 'evil'.....

The missing bottom three are easy:

JRM - Gove - Farage

That's cheating - only 'Lawful' favoured Leave, while Chaotic favoured Remain - Neutral were, well, neutral.

Who's you 'Evil Chaotic' - Adonis?

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

grabcocque

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

She went to Austria puffed up by widespread Tory and media expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal. They've now realized, shockingly late, that this isn't in fact the case. And since that was the sole assumption underlying May's entire strategy (if you can call it that) it's difficult to overstate how much of a personal, UTTER disaster this has been for her.

You know what they say, never get high on your own supply. That applies to Brexiteer bullshit as well as hard drugs.

murali_s

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

Well said. The dimwits who live on this right-wing blog should read this and reflect.

welshowl

MarqueeMark said:

welshowl said:

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Or Elizabeth Montgomery?

(showing my age)

Or Elizabeth I?

Not quite that old. Even if the negotiations are getting a little ruff.

JosiasJessop

Stereotomy said:

Foxy said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

Spot on.

She failed by surroundering herself with sycophants and refusing to listen to legitimate objections.

Maybe we could give Elizabeth Holmes a shot at sorting out Brexit.

Nah. The leavers act like Elizabeth Holmes.

*) They have a wizard idea for something that will be brilliant (in their minds).
*) They don't listen to anyone who tells them it is impossible.
*) They get a load of senile old men to believe and invest in it.
*) They use lots of PR and press to say how brilliant it is.
*) They get a few people working on it, but mainly just bask in how awesome they are.
*) They don't develop the thing and it all goes to pot.
*) They screech "It's all someone else's fault !!!"

We still have to see if either Theranos or Brexit will end up in any jail time ...

Brom

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

That would be brilliant but I can't see it. I'm sure all Tories other than the mad Wollaston sorts would prefer no deal to a GE and the prospect of Corbyn but I'd still have a Chequers style deal as being by far the most likely option, the fact the pound showed no real movement suggests little has changed despite all the bluster and posturing.

rottenborough

grabcocque said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

She went to Austria puffed up by widespread Tory and media expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal. They've now realized, shockingly late, that this isn't in fact the case. And since that was the sole assumption underlying May's entire strategy (if you can call it that) it's difficult to overstate how much of a personal, UTTER disaster this has been for her.

You know what they say, never get high on your own supply. That applies to Brexiteer bullshit as well as hard drugs.

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1043039718789861376

rottenborough

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

That would be brilliant but I can't see it. I'm sure all Tories other than the mad Wollaston sorts would prefer no deal to a GE and the prospect of Corbyn but I'd still have a Chequers style deal as being by far the most likely option, the fact the pound showed no real movement suggests little has changed despite all the bluster and posturing.

At least one thing has changed. Another week has gone by and another EU meeting gone.

The clock is ticking, thanks to May's original sin of starting A50 without any planning.

FF43

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

What point is Dominic Raab trying to make? That he has failed to convince the EU of his own case?

Stereotomy

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

Dan Hodges seems to think May is immediately (and brilliantly) going to pivot to No Deal before the conference. Seems extremely unlikely to me, would surely lead to her party no confidencing her (alliance of Remainers and some Leavers who want to be next leader, who'd take the line that they want to negotiate a Canada deal instead), or possibly even the government falling (since I imagine she'd lose the DUP)

Brom

rottenborough said:

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

That would be brilliant but I can't see it. I'm sure all Tories other than the mad Wollaston sorts would prefer no deal to a GE and the prospect of Corbyn but I'd still have a Chequers style deal as being by far the most likely option, the fact the pound showed no real movement suggests little has changed despite all the bluster and posturing.

At least one thing has changed. Another week has gone by and another EU meeting gone.

The clock is ticking, thanks to May's original sin of starting A50 without any planning.

18 months or 2 years is plenty of time to get an agreement in place. Was it ever going to not come down to the wire though? It will suit both parties a great deal I'm sure.

Philip_Thompson

grabcocque said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

She went to Austria puffed up by widespread Tory and media expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal. They've now realized, shockingly late, that this isn't in fact the case. And since that was the sole assumption underlying May's entire strategy (if you can call it that) it's difficult to overstate how much of a personal, UTTER disaster this has been for her.

You know what they say, never get high on your own supply. That applies to Brexiteer bullshit as well as hard drugs.

Except May's not a Brexiteer. The main Brexiteers (besides Gove) walked off and said this was a terrible idea.

HYUFD

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

Of course if Blair had imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as he could have done the immigration problem would have been much less of an issue.

As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1043105120857272321

Stereotomy

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

That would be brilliant but I can't see it. I'm sure all Tories other than the mad Wollaston sorts would prefer no deal to a GE and the prospect of Corbyn but I'd still have a Chequers style deal as being by far the most likely option, the fact the pound showed no real movement suggests little has changed despite all the bluster and posturing.

The pound hasn't moved because Chequers was dead long before yesterday.

williamglenn

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1043105120857272321

grabcocque

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

She went to Austria puffed up by widespread Tory and media expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal. They've now realized, shockingly late, that this isn't in fact the case. And since that was the sole assumption underlying May's entire strategy (if you can call it that) it's difficult to overstate how much of a personal, UTTER disaster this has been for her.

You know what they say, never get high on your own supply. That applies to Brexiteer bullshit as well as hard drugs.

Except May's not a Brexiteer. The main Brexiteers (besides Gove) walked off and said this was a terrible idea.

I mean, what is she? I don't have the slightest idea any more. I doubt even she does. I guess, if she seriously believe Chequers could fly, she's best called a unspeakably-terrible-compromisist?

In truth I think she's just useless.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1043102379690917888

rottenborough

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

What point is Dominic Raab trying to make? That he has failed to convince the EU of his own case?

I've not been impressed by Raab in this job. I know many hail him as the Great Next Leader from that younger generation, but I've not seen any reason for this so far.

grabcocque

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1043102845510275074

That would be brilliant but I can't see it. I'm sure all Tories other than the mad Wollaston sorts would prefer no deal to a GE and the prospect of Corbyn but I'd still have a Chequers style deal as being by far the most likely option, the fact the pound showed no real movement suggests little has changed despite all the bluster and posturing.

At least one thing has changed. Another week has gone by and another EU meeting gone.

The clock is ticking, thanks to May's original sin of starting A50 without any planning.

18 months or 2 years is plenty of time to get an agreement in place. Was it ever going to not come down to the wire though? It will suit both parties a great deal I'm sure.

So you're saying the current state of affairs is actually working for May too?
🤔

Philip_Thompson

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

Of course if Blair had imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as he could have done the immigration problem would have been much less of an issue.

As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform

Even if Blair had imposed a transition period that would have done nothing other than delay the inevitable. Free movement would still be there. The issues would still be there.

We imposed the maximum possible transition controls on Romania, did that stop a surge in Romanian migrants? No of course it didn't. We now have more Romanians in this country than either Irish or Indians.

Transition controls are not the answer.

FrancisUrquhart

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1043102379690917888

Brenda from Bristol is waiting....

rottenborough

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

Floater

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

What point is Dominic Raab trying to make? That he has failed to convince the EU of his own case?

No, that the EU has reason for negotiations to fail and may be negotiating in less than good faith I suspect

"to encourage the others" and all that

murali_s

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

What point is Dominic Raab trying to make? That he has failed to convince the EU of his own case?

I've not been impressed by Raab in this job. I know many hail him as the Great Next Leader from that younger generation, but I've not seen any reason for this so far.

Raab is just living up to (the very low) expectations that is to be expected of a right-wing Tory politician.

maaarsh

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

As I said on here last night, a pathetically predictable response from elements of the Conservative heartland.

The usual media suspects have gone overboard on their anti-European ranting pulling out all the old stereotypes and re-enforcing them because they dared not to strew rose petals on the path of the beloved Britannia.

Do I feel "insulted" or "humiliated" ? Not in the least. May's a grown up - she's been in politics long enough to know how the game is played and the dance is danced. Yesterday was a reality check - we've heard nothing but the mantra of "hard work" from the Prime Minister since July 2016 but has that work been done? It seems not.

We've gone there puffed up by our own expectations that the EU will roll over and do a deal - no, they won't. It's vital for them to make it as difficult as possible for us - "you can have the Euro any time you like but you can never leave".

None of this means a deal can't or won't be done but the deal will be a tough sell for May as it will mean more concessions even than Chequers and while it seems the red line for her isn't immigration but "our precious union" that might not be where other people's red lines are.

It now seems for some "no deal IS better than a bad deal" once again.

Of course if Blair had imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as he could have done the immigration problem would have been much less of an issue.

As it is I think May will agree a stay in the single market and customs union through the transition period deal for the UK with a customs union backstop for NI but if that has not produced a FTA by the end of 2020 I think Boris will challenge on a Canada style FTA for GB platform

Even if Blair had imposed a transition period that would have done nothing other than delay the inevitable. Free movement would still be there. The issues would still be there.

We imposed the maximum possible transition controls on Romania, did that stop a surge in Romanian migrants? No of course it didn't. We now have more Romanians in this country than either Irish or Indians.

Transition controls are not the answer.

That can't be right. I remember the Guardian's mockery of the suggestion we'd have a surge of Romanians.If they'd actually come I'm pretty sure I'd have heard about it from them.

grabcocque

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1043101291692666880

What point is Dominic Raab trying to make? That he has failed to convince the EU of his own case?

I've not been impressed by Raab in this job. I know many hail him as the Great Next Leader from that younger generation, but I've not seen any reason for this so far.

Raab was set up by May. His sole purpose is to spout Brexiteer platitudes for the delight of the peanut gallery while May drives the whole show careening into a giant political crevasse.

El_Capitano

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1043107258392096768

archer101au

welshowl said:

archer101au said:

grabcocque said:

You have to admire May’s enormous self-belief in her ability to convince people of a deal that literally everyone had been publicly ridiculing for two months. There’s a certain level of delusion there that takes on an impressive quality.

So May has been humiliated, and that was crushingly inevitable. Her total failure to listen to anyone at all except for the oleaginous Olly Robbins practically guaranteed that some kind of massive humiliation was on the cards.

Even then, I’m surprised at the savageness of the EU’s response. I think we can safely say the EU27 have decided that no political capital can be made from humouring May. They’ve given up on her too.

If I were May I’d just cut my losses and run. There is nowhere left to hide.

When May’s political epitaph is written it will be the history of a woman who ignored all advice except the terrible wisdom of a few sycophantic spads who told her exactly what she wants to hear.

Remember in Jan 2017, Sir Ivan Rogers was forced out by May as U.K. ambassador to the EU for being to pessimistic and for publicly saying the U.K. government was dangerously unaware of the hostility of the EU27 to Brexit?

When you look at what has been being briefed by the commission and the EU27 over the last month about Salzburg, the platitudes, the kind noises off... they’ve been laying this trap, planning this violent political buggery for months. And nobody in No 10 had any idea.

It has all been so crushingly inevitable. The 24/7 ongoing political slow motion car crash that has been May's Brexit "negotiation" has just run, suddenly predictably, out of road and it's obvious that May has no idea where to go next.

I am wondering if she will resign. Maybe at the conference. Everyone has a limit.

I wondered that too, if not before.

If she does have to abandon Chequers or something that can be spun as at least Chequers minus, surely she has to have someone else do the next move whatever it is. Having hung her hat on Chequers and lost two senior ministers ( yes I know, but if it is sunk totally, they’ve been proved right, even if possibly for a different set of reasons to the ones they were thinking), surely she cannot be the one who says “ok it’s now plan B”.

Maybe today?

Philip_Thompson

El_Capitano said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1043107258392096768

Not a resignation then. Shame.

MarqueeMark

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1043102379690917888

Election? - nope

Resignation? - maybe

Nuclear strike on Brussels for dissing her? - nailed on

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1043107447257354241

rottenborough

Philip_Thompson said:

El_Capitano said:

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1043107258392096768

Not a resignation then. Shame.

The Government has a Brexit policy?

grabcocque

Rumours May is to give a steps of number 10, full lectern job at 1:45pm

Think she's calling it a day? I would not blame her one bit.

rottenborough

grabcocque said:

Rumours May is to give a steps of number 10, full lectern job at 1:45pm

Think she's calling it a day? I would not blame her one bit.

She will restate how wonderful Chequers is and the alternative is No Deal.

Nothing has changed.

AlastairMeeks

I guess we're about to find out what Leavers do when they've shouted "Rule Britannia", when they've sung "God Save the Queen" and when they've finished killing Juncker with their mouths.

MarqueeMark

My scenario of David Davis getting a coronation to be PM for two years - to implement a Canada plus deal before standing down for a new leader - looks ever closer to reality today....

OchEye

rottenborough said:

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

1:45 from inside No. 10

FrancisUrquhart

rottenborough said:

grabcocque said:

Rumours May is to give a steps of number 10, full lectern job at 1:45pm

Think she's calling it a day? I would not blame her one bit.

She will restate how wonderful Chequers is and the alternative is No Deal.

Nothing has changed.

That is my guess...and something about continuing to work hard to try to talk with EU.

Stereotomy

rottenborough said:

grabcocque said:

Rumours May is to give a steps of number 10, full lectern job at 1:45pm

Think she's calling it a day? I would not blame her one bit.

She will restate how wonderful Chequers is and the alternative is No Deal.

Nothing has changed.

"Today I am announcing Chequers 2: Red White and Blue Boogaloo"

GarethoftheVale2

rottenborough said:

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

If so what do we think?

No Deal
Resigning
GE
2nd Ref

grabcocque

Chexit means Chexit.

ExiledInScotland

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1043102379690917888

I don't think there will be a pivot to No Deal. She doesn't do anything unless she's practised it and if this was the plan it would have leaked by now. The only time she did anything suddenly was call a GE. Oh hold on. Only an idiot does the same thing twice expecting a different result. She can't be that desperate to try to alter the parliamentary maths, can she?

rottenborough

grabcocque said:

Chexit means Chexit.

williamglenn

I hope it's not a reprise of the one before the election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZCTystM-s0

AlastairMeeks

GarethoftheVale2 said:

rottenborough said:

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

If so what do we think?

No Deal
Resigning
GE
2nd Ref

My favourite would be "nothing very much other than a lot of huffing and puffing about how rude the EU have been and a restatement of the Mayite position."

rottenborough

GarethoftheVale2 said:

rottenborough said:

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

If so what do we think?

No Deal
Resigning
GE
2nd Ref

Purely from a betting view, resignation would be good. We've not had much betting action of late.

David_Evershed

AlastairMeeks said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

rottenborough said:

Rumours of a full-on PM statement this afternoon.

If so what do we think?

No Deal
Resigning
GE
2nd Ref

My favourite would be "nothing very much other than a lot of huffing and puffing about how rude the EU have been and a restatement of the Mayite position."

Nothing has changed. Nothing has changed.

HYUFD

https://mobile.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1043106200672522240

David_Evershed

rottenborough said:

grabcocque said:

Chexit means Chexit.

Exit Chequesit