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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » While the nation faces huge and historic issues over Brexit Labour gathers in Liverpool to talk about itself
Meanwhile Phil Collins is dead right – while the Tories go through their Brexit travails all Corbyn's LAB wants to talk about is itself https://t.co/NYSLTbXBkN
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I think that they will have a decision in favour of a #peoplesvote then move onto other issues.
That diagnosis seems a bit strange. It's like saying, 'we can't do anything about this cancer so let's try a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the foot.'
If they were remorselessly banging on about housing, the NHS and education (albeit their answers veer from the laughable to the silly) you would be right, but talking about the right of a leader to be hated by the PLP and for antisemites to say nasty things about Jews probably isn't going to stem the flow.
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2018/09/the-kavanaugh-affair-careened-off-a-cliff-today/
Whelan has been involved in helping to advise Kavanaugh’s confirmation effort and is close friends with both Kavanaugh and Leonard Leo, the head of the Federalist Society who has been helping to spearhead the nomination. Kavanaugh and Whelan also worked together in the Bush administration. Kavanaugh and his allies have been privately discussing a defense that would not question whether an incident involving Ford happened, but instead would raise doubts that the attacker was Kavanaugh, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
If Kavanaugh himself is even remotely involved in this, he’s toast…
Knowing May I expect capitulation.
She can then save face and say Chequers will still be the basis for FTA negotiations in the transition period
https://www.suffolk.edu/news/76890.php#.WwVmrNxKjX5
I don't dislike May, I don't think she's stupid, I don't think she has ill intent, but I sure as hell do not trust her political instincts.
I think May's time is up.
She will continue to tell the EGR it's Chequers or Remain and tell the EU it's Chequers or No Deal while running the clock out until the options are starkly reduced to No Deal or postpone A50.
What she'll do then is the genuine bafflement.
If May hadn't called a GE, what would likely have happened with Sturgeon's call for a second Scots independence vote? From memory, wasn't that intended for around now?
I remember Sturgeon's move towards a second vote being the catalyst for May's GE call.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/20/may-in-fight-to-save-chequers-brexit-plan-after-salzburg-ambush
Good thing he doesn't have any Departmental issues to distract him, hmm?
Is this a peculiar example of the law of unintended consequences? Or simply a result of May’s particular red lines? Or EU red lines? Or what?
In short, does the GFA legally require NI to stay within the SM and the CU? And, if not, what is the issue?
And if NI did have to stay within the SM wouldn’t that mean that all our banks could operate from there using the “passport”, not to mention others?
As I say I am probably missing something obvious - but marvellous as this forum is there is, dare I say it, often more heat than light shed on certain topics - so without tut tutting at my appalling stupidity and ignorance, if some kind soul could explain this to me or point me in the right direction, I’d be most grateful.
And now having had my very Irish breakfast of porridge and strong tea, I’d best go and do some work.
On topic, no I totally disagree with you Mike. The complete opposite is the truth! Conference week is the only week of the year awash with talk of unique values and differential polices, it’s the rest of the year all the parties ignore this. This is one of the reasons you can’t trust polls in conference season.
Don’t just disagree with me, let’s put it to the test. I think headlines out of this labour conference will be dominated too much about Europe, and not enough about nationalisation of railways for that extra control, cheaper land purchases, gig economy pay and conditions, limbo of migrant workers from EU, and other discussions that would draw a crowd around their soapbox.
I know now no one on this site agrees with me about how Politics actually works. But I am right.
We will now see if May as bluffing and thus if the EU called it correctly. I suspect they are closer to doing so, but it's still a gamble.
It strikes me that while Tories naturally downplay the humiliation to them some opponents overplay it significantly so focused they on partisan approached. This does transcend that to an extent.
I await labour switching to a referendum of some kind though. If it is on a theoretical hard deal they gain remainers and soft leavers so their support would grow.
Oh, wait.
(For goodness' sake, guys, dump Cable, have an election between Swinson and Moran, and vote in Moran. It's. Not. That. Hard.)
https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1043026863763812352
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/09/around-the-black-cloud-of-saltzburg-one-can-glimpse-a-silver-lining.html
Our inept government played it badly, that's not disputed here, but I object to implication sometimes expressed that testing the red lines is only ok in one direction
Hyperbolic to say the least.
Plus the Republic would lose 15% of its national income under reunification according to the Irish Times yesterday as it would have to take on the substantive transfers to NI the UK would be freed from
I don't know how this all pans out, but I think in the immediate term a pivot to harder brexit will be tried, with a chance of referendums on the extremes of walking away or vassalage if that fails.
Pleasant day all.
Sadly, as with Labour, the extremists are now in charge.
Boris will hold Uxbridge easily on current polls if Corbyn becomes PM it will be in a hung parliament propped up by the LDs and SNP, unless Labour won a clear majority at the next general election Boris would hold Uxbridge even if Corbyn became PM
A move to back a 2nd Referendum means all the blame is shifted to Labour and would be a disaster politically
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043053122820689921
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY
The current attitude of her own state, where she is a known quantity, is of considerably more relevance.
Maybe over-reading it, but if May did come back and agree to CETA on the basis the NI backstop went away, will the EU leaders really refuse? Nobody really thinks that the NI border is a threat to the SM. I am not sure I see Merkel going for no deal (which will end up with no resolution on the NI border either) on this basis especially when there really are no options left on the table.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1043055667869884416
So it's the old Freedom of Movement thingy that is the issue. In their current mood the EU doesn't seem likely to rebrand it so it can be fudged but maybe they will.
It seems NickP has the most experience of their MO in this department - I wonder, Nick, are you surprised at the seeming intransigence they are displaying or is it, in your view, all part of the great game?
I miss those guys.
Which can be sung to the tune of Gary Indiana from The Music Man...
She's running out of friends fast..
Now that's all hypothetical but I think that's the most compelling evidence so far that Labour backing referendum II would be a net vote winner.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-back-second-referendum-gain-power-general-election-polls-a8547676.html
But on NI they have no basis whatsoever for insisting on the backstop. We are entitled to leave and the border issue is a joint outcome of this decision which is allowed by the treaties. It is the UK's red line. It is not a genuine threat to the EU. And it is the NI backstop, not the trade, which has poisoned the talks for months.
Be honest. May offered Chequers because she said (rightly) it is the only plan that solves the NI Backstop without separating NI into the CU. If the EU had accepted a sensible technology based plan for the border back in 2017, May would probably have moved to CETA by now and this would be done and dusted.
Sorry, the failure here is that Barnier is out to humiliate the UK, not get a deal. If this all falls over, it will go down in history as the greatest example of completely overplaying a strong hand.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1043056815972528128
It's practically a civic duty.
She really has two massive problems: the people she picks to surround her - and listening to the people she picks to surround her.
Right now, that is all that matters.
https://quillette.com/2018/09/21/the-preachers-of-the-great-awokening/
"We have argued that this perspective offers insights into the behavior of those who inhabit the culture and spread the norms of Wokeness. Chiefly, it contends that (a) many Whites use the vocabulary of social justice to signal their erudition, cosmopolitanism, and commitment to the cause so as to distinguish themselves from hoi polloi. And that (b) the preachers of the Great Awokening serve the crucial function of legitimizing the resulting status disparity. Their teachings assuage the guilt of the elite and blunt the bitterness of hoi polloi. And, therefore, those preachers are recompensed with status.
The danger is that the status desires of these preachers will eclipse their moral concerns. (Some, of course, would claim that this has already happened.) And then the preachers will become moral peacocks, showcasing eloquent and fantastical sermons to a dwindling but increasingly fanatical base."
Brussels twirling its moustache and swirling its cape is never going to get the crowd on your side in Brexit-pantoland.