Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Yes, the now daily PB spectacle of deranged ideologues wishing to visit economic chaos on Britain while pontificating from their safe house in Australia is rather unedifying,
No, your comment is unedifying. Archer has raised important issues and provided coherent opinions about them. It is beside the point where he is posting from.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
So theoretically if the EU was only willing to make a completely unreasonable deal, you'd expect May to still make it?
You always have to be prepared to walk away otherwise you might as well be prepared offer your first born.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
While not impressed by TMs pn left his successor
Surely "the shit hand leavers have left" ?
Leavers are to blame here. Not May, not Cameron. Leavers.
Cameron called the referendum Cameron lost the referendum Cameron made no back up plans Cameron legged it
cant see how you can say thats either the fault of either May or the voters.
Come, now. Many leavers wanted the referendum for decades, and helped bring down more than one Conservative leader. Despite all their massive intellect and skills, they could not agree on a course of action - and they still cannot.
May's problem lies in the fact that leavers wanted a referendum, and now cannot agree on what it means. That's not Cameron's fault - it's the fault of the people who put their hatred of the EU over and above the good of the country.
The sad thing is they continue to do so.
.
"Nobody forced Cameron to call the ref nor did they force him to call it when he did."
Okay, now you're being really silly. Two Conservative MPs had moved over to UKIP, and others were threatening to. If you recall, there was *massive* grumbling on here that he didn't call one over the Lisbon Treaty (which would have been a pointless, ridiculous action), and then that he didn't hold one during the coalition. He had to call one after his 2015 win the Conservative Party would have utterly split.
To be clear: Cameron isn't blameless, but few people are in this mess (including myself, as I wanted a referendum). But leavers carry the biggest burden of shame - for they got what they wanted, and have f'all idea what to do next.
Speaking for myself, I'm pretty pleased that Cameron called the referendum, and pretty pleased with the result.
I *was* pleased that he called the referendum. As the referendum 'debates' went on, it became clear that leave had no effing clue, and that forced me, despite a general Euroscepticism, to vote remain.
I cannot see how the country could have avoided a referendum in the short- or medium-term, but I regret that it's ended up as I predicted, with leavers absolutely clueless on where to go next, and blaming everyone else for their mistakes.
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
Cameron had been open about moving to the centre ground, where presumably he expected more votes and seats this was his stragey . His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP, they followed his advice. It was stupid advice as only broad churches win elections you only win elections in the centre if you keep the rest of your party on board. Unfortunately to his own detriment Cameron wasnt a good party manager.
As for the referendum there were loads of ways he could have framed it, Unlike you I think he should have held a Lisbon election post event since it would at least have strengthened his hand in any future EU discussions while also allowingpeople let off steam. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
I'm not responsible for him. Thankfully.
But that was the scenario that you jumped in on and made completely erroneous statements about.
No, your comment is unedifying. Archer has raised important issues and provided coherent opinions about them. It is beside the point where he is posting from.
He is the only politically and intellectually coherent leaver on pb.com. The rest of them are all over the place like a madman's shit.
The only problem has been the backstop. This was never even raised by Barnier until chancer Varadkhar came along and the wanted to see whether May would stand up to them and give them an absolute gift. She did. They probably couldn't believe it and it made them realise that if she was put under pressure she would cave. So they just kept going.
The EU's negotiating guidelines that were written when Enda Kenny was still there made Northern Ireland a phase one issue and said:
"In view of the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, flexible and imaginative solutions will be required, including with the aim of avoiding a hard border, while respecting the integrity of the Union legal order."
Nothing has changed, to coin a phrase.
What??? That is the recipie for a soft MaxFac border. Which, as you should know, he was busy negotiating with the UK before Varadkar came along.
If you bothered to check, Barnier signed off the NI chapter as ‘complete’ in October 2017 - it was the money that was outstanding at that time. Dont’t rewrite history- we have the EU to do that for us.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
Quite. No deal would be disastrous, at least in the short-term, for many 'ordinary hard-working people'.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
While not impressed by TMs pn left his successor
Surely "the shit hand leavers have left" ?
Leavers are to blame here. Not May, not Cameron. Leavers.
Cameron called the referendum Cameron lost the referendum Cameron made no back up plans Cameron legged it
cant see how you can say thats either the fault of either May or the voters.
Come, now. Many leavers wanted the referendum for decades, and helped bring down more than one Conservative leader. Despite all their massive intellect and skills, they could not agree on a course of action - and they still cannot.
May's problem lies in the fact that leavers wanted a referendum, and now cannot agree on what it means. That's not Cameron's fault - it's the fault of the people who put their hatred of the EU over and above the good of the country.
The sad thing is they continue to do so.
.
To be clear: Cameron isn't blameless, but few people are in this mess (including myself, as I wanted a referendum). But leavers carry the biggest burden of shame - for they got what they wanted, and have f'all idea what to do next.
Speaking for myself, I'm pretty pleased that Cameron called the referendum, and pretty pleased with the result.
I *was* pleased that he called the referendum. As the referendum 'debates' went on, it became clear that leave had no effing clue, and that forced me, despite a general Euroscepticism, to vote remain.
I cannot see how the country could have avoided a referendum in the short- or medium-term, but I regret that it's ended up as I predicted, with leavers absolutely clueless on where to go next, and blaming everyone else for their mistakes.
I accept Robert Smithson's view that we're a bad fit for the EU. After the vote, let the dice fall where they will.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
Quite. No deal would be disastrous, at least in the short-term, for many 'ordinary hard-working people'.
While a bad deal would be disastrous for the long-term.
As is supplicancy if you're not prepared to risk no-deal.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
If the UK blink what is going to stop the DUP bringing down the Govt? They will not lose their seats in GE and Corbyn is not going to win. They would get a new PM (probably a hung parliament again, so more money for them) and the backstop will be finished.
How many people have deceived themselves that the DUP were bluffing? They don't bluff.
If the government is brought down, Jeremy Corbyn might well form the next government without a general election. I'm sure he'd try.
He only has the numbers if he uses Diane Abbott's calculator.
Brexit is happening, May is going. Next PM will be Hunt or Gove.
Still 6 months of knicker wetting by remainers who think they have a chance of stopping it based on the Kabuki theatre of the negotiations. I feel a bit sorry for them thinking there is still hope.
If the government is brought down, .
If my auntie had baws she'd be my uncle.
No appetite for a GE from the Con party. None.
PM out yes. Govt out - no.
Talk me through your mechanics for this, with especial reference to the Fixed Term Parliament Act and the Conservative leadership election rules.
Brexit goes through. Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses. New leader. No GE..
That is not the scenario that @archer101au was speculating about. Try again.
I'm not responsible for him. Thankfully.
But that was the scenario that you jumped in on and made completely erroneous statements about.
Not true - there will be a deal of sorts.
It will pass in the commons.
Whatever it is can be unpicked over time - probably helped by the EU disappearing down the plughole of history.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
So theoretically if the EU was only willing to make a completely unreasonable deal, you'd expect May to still make it?
You always have to be prepared to walk away otherwise you might as well be prepared offer your first born.
Yes, and in this scenario you have to ask the voters in a second referendum
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
If she loses on the floor of the House of Commons, in practice she will have lost at least the DUP and if she has lost the DUP she will have lost one faction of her party. Her position will be untenable.
I'm not expecting any of this, mind. Theresa May (motto: faute de mieux) will probably get whatever deal she eventually capitulates on through Parliament.
I accept Robert Smithson's view that we're a bad fit for the EU. After the vote, let the dice fall where they will.
IMO that's a massively irresponsible position to take, and one that can only really be espoused by people well insulated from the potential negative effects of such an action.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
If she loses on the floor of the House of Commons, in practice she will have lost at least the DUP and if she has lost the DUP she will have lost one faction of her party. Her position will be untenable.
Agreed. To lose a vote of confidence, she needs the DUP to vote with the Opposition, not just to abstain.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
Apparently, we're in for a deluge. I'm sure the dog will not be amused.
On the Lib Dems: good to hear that apparently Cable's deranged leadership election ideas went down terribly. Maybe there's hope for the yellows after all.
Mr Dancer, one other thing in the speech that stood out to me (apart from spasms, erotic, exotic, or otherwise) was his saying that campaigning to be in the EU wasn't enough - there had to be a recognition that the status quo ante was unsustainable and that the drivers for voting to Leave had to be addressed; that wanting to manage immigration wasn't racism, that areas feeling left behind had to receive investment, that free movement would have to be reformed, and that there was a real prospect of doing so (with Merkel and Macron seeing similar issues rising and EU-wide they were rising).
I've often complained elsewhere to those pushing for somehow still Remaining: "What then?" What was their plan for what do do afterwards, because otherwise we just end up with the exact issues all over again. It's nice to see at least an attempt to answer it and an acknowledgement that it needs to be done.
Interesting that in the podcast Mark Pack suggested, as a successor to Vince Cable, that Christine Jardine was one to watch.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
What you might realise if you had ever been a member of a political party, is that losing a VONC in that context would result in replacement as leader within hours. Probably see more than half the party in Parliament submitting letters, to negate the need for a confidence vote.
Politics is about power and confidence, if you don’t have either then you have nothing. It is not about federalist fantasies based on technicalities.
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
What you might realise if you had ever been a member of a political party, is that losing a VONC in that context would result in replacement as leader within hours. Probably see more than half the party in Parliament submitting letters, to negate the need for a confidence vote.
Politics is about power and confidence, if you don’t have either then you have nothing. It is not about federalist fantasies based on technicalities.
You can't replace a leader within hours unless you have a unanimous consensus about who should take over. On June 9th last year May had lost all power and confidence, but she still survived because there was no alternative. If we're staring down the barrel of a No Deal Brexit, there will be no alternative.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
I would expect emergency legislation would be tabled to stop economic chaos
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
And what were the 'right wing' offering him aside from squealing and screaming over the EU? *They* are the ones who did not know when to stop. Aside from that, it's odd to suggest that his centrist policies hadn't gone far enough when he didn't get a large majority.
All you are doing is shifting the blame onto someone you don't like, rather than looking hard in the mirror.
The idea that " Men in grey coats approach Mrs May next spring. She either steps down gracefully or fights a leadership election and loses" is total bollocks and fails to understand the leadership rules.
Men in gray suits can visit as much as they like but TMay stays put
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion (or possibly even a codified amendment to legislation -- has the "Repeal Bill" got its third reading yet, or have I completely lost track?) forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
I don’t think the commons has the power to pass such a motion; treaty negotiation is an executive prerogative.
I accept Robert Smithson's view that we're a bad fit for the EU. After the vote, let the dice fall where they will.
IMO that's a massively irresponsible position to take, and one that can only really be espoused by people well insulated from the potential negative effects of such an action.
That's in the very nature of being asked to take a decision in principle. The level of risk involved in leaving the EU is acceptable, IMHO.
In the UK, leaving aside the female head of state (inherited, of course), we have a female PM, female Scottish First Minister, and female head of the (theoretical) government in Northern Ireland. Only Wales has a male political leader.
I don't think it matters that 75% of said executive leading roles are occupied by women, and the same would be true if Wales were led by a woman or men held every role. Competence trumps gender.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
If she loses on the floor of the House of Commons, in practice she will have lost at least the DUP and if she has lost the DUP she will have lost one faction of her party. Her position will be untenable.
I'm not expecting any of this, mind. Theresa May (motto: faute de mieux) will probably get whatever deal she eventually capitulates on through Parliament.
The dream scenario for me is that a Chequers-like deal is passed by the Commons (perhaps, as you say, with the support of some rebel Labour MPs like Caroline Flint), then immediately afterwards a motion of no confidence in the government is carried, due to furious DUP turning against.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion (or possibly even a codified amendment to legislation -- has the "Repeal Bill" got its third reading yet, or have I completely lost track?) forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
I don’t think the commons has the power to pass such a motion; treaty negotiation is an executive prerogative.
A motion can say anything. The question is whether it would compel the executive to act.
What was it you were saying about power and confidence?
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
That would require an Act of Parliament. That would be very difficult to pass in the face of opposition from the government.
The biggest procedural flaw in the "a new PM will fix everything" school of thought, is that unless there is unanimity about who the new Tory leader should be it means a contest, during which May is still PM and able to call the shots, including forming a cross-party coalition if necessary.
After a vote of no confidence, a new government has to be formed within two weeks or there's a general election. If Theresa May is deposed on the floor of the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to get their act together extremely sharpish or there's a Jeremy Corbyn minority government or a general election. My guess is that a Jeremy Corbyn minority government is probably the easiest for them to get in the time available.
A vote of no confidence in the House of Commons wouldn't depose May. She'd also need to lose a vote of no confidence in the Tory party, otherwise she could just call everyone's bluff and try to win a revote before the 14 days time out. The Lib Dems and others might say they'd vote for her in return for a second referendum.
If she loses on the floor of the House of Commons, in practice she will have lost at least the DUP and if she has lost the DUP she will have lost one faction of her party. Her position will be untenable.
I'm not expecting any of this, mind. Theresa May (motto: faute de mieux) will probably get whatever deal she eventually capitulates on through Parliament.
The dream scenario for me is that a Chequers-like deal is passed by the Commons (perhaps, as you say, with the support of some rebel Labour MPs like Caroline Flint), then immediately afterwards a motion of no confidence in the government is carried, due to furious DUP turning against.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
While not impressed by TMs political skills I alsways retain a huge amount of sympathy for her given the shit hand Cameron left his successor
You Leavers said Brexit would be easy.
That we held all the aces and that they needed us more.
That German companies would force Merkel and the EU to give us a good deal.
Remember when people said no deal was just Project Fear.
As usual you do the PB jump straight to the extremes and paint everything in between the same colour. There were lots of different opinions both sides and the campaign was one set of dross against the other.
When the dust settles in a decade or so I wouldnt rulle out history being kinder to TM than it is to DC
It’ll be kinder to Dave. At least he never came out with this.
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
David Cameron lost votes?
Number of Tory votes at general elections
2005: 8,784,915
2010: 10,703,754
2015: 11,334,226
His strategy worked which saw his as the only Tory to win a majority in the last 26 years.
I mean Mrs May couldn't even win a majority with UKIP polling 2%.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
I, however, would do. She can't compel the EU to do a deal.
And then it has to go to a second referendum
Why?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
It doesn't have to. It's the default.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
It's not the default if the Commons passes a motion forbidding the government from effecting Brexit without a deal in place.
And does that repeal A50?
On its own, probably not officially, but it would be a pretty big constitutional crisis for the government to defy the "expressed will of the House" -- and, on past evidence, we can expect John Bercow to use any levers at his disposal to prevent them doing so.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and ite
While not impressed by TMs political skills I alsways retain a huge amount of sympathy for her given the shit hand Cameron left his successor
You Leavers said Brexit would be easy.
That we held all the aces and that they needed us more.
That German companies would force Merkel and the EU to give us a good deal.
Remember when people said no deal was just Project Fear.
Brexit is easy. We wasted endless time trying to cherry pick parts of the SM and CU to appease the remainers when we should have just insisted on a FTA from the start.
The only problem has been the backstop. This was never even raised by Barnier until chancer Varadkhar came along and the wanted to see whether May would stand up to them and give them an absolute gift. She did. They probably couldn't believe it and it made them realise that if she was put under pressure she would cave. So they just kept going.
All May had to do is walk away from talks in December and refuse to come back until the backstop was off the agenda. The EU would have backed down and CETA would be agreed by now.
No matter how much you try, the facts are not going to go away - it is you Remainers who have been in charge of Brexit and it is you who have screwed it up. Don't worry, when the shit hits the fan the Leavers will take over and fix it for you.
Very politically naive. Not sure you'd receive the expert political commentator visa.
Well if you have an analysis then go for it. But simply implying a superior position is the hallmark of the elitst attitude that lost the referendum...
I have already said that I think the DUP will be bought/fudged off and there will be a separate customs arrangement for the Island of Ireland. NI differs from the UK on several issues - abortion, say - and I don't think anyone apart from the DUP will care that there is a border "in the Irish Sea" (Nick Palmer, arch-Corbynite doesn't for example). Now of course of all the people who might care the DUP matters the most as the remainder don't have the option of bringing down the government. But I think that it will be put to them that the alternative is worse, and the pill will be sugared.
So what about the Brexoloons? And haven't we legislated not to allow this. Well of course we will call it something else.
That is all excluding the possibility that we go the whole hog and the UK stays in the SM/CU which I don't think likely but which is possible.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
While not impressed by TMs political skills I alsways retain a huge amount of sympathy for her given the shit hand Cameron left his successor
You Leavers said Brexit would be easy.
That we held all the aces and that they needed us more.
That German companies would force Merkel and the EU to give us a good deal.
Remember when people said no deal was just Project Fear.
As usual you do the PB jump straight to the extremes and paint everything in between the same colour. There were lots of different opinions both sides and the campaign was one set of dross against the other.
When the dust settles in a decade or so I wouldnt rulle out history being kinder to TM than it is to DC
It’ll be kinder to Dave. At least he never came out with this.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
A difficult task of her own making, surely. If she had been more conciliatory and less confrontational, she might have received more support and been more successful, in promoting the interests of the country as a whole.
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
And what were the 'right wing' offering him aside from squealing and screaming over the EU? *They* are the ones who did not know when to stop. Aside from that, it's odd to suggest that his centrist policies hadn't gone far enough when he didn't get a large majority.
All you are doing is shifting the blame onto someone you don't like, rather than looking hard in the mirror.
"The millions would have paid for themselves..."
On what do you base that claim?
I dont like Osborne, I have nothing against Cameron, I find him something of a tragic figure. He had lots of potential but didnt realise it.
As for the millions the EU ref cost about £142 million the cost of exiting will exceed that comfortably.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
So theoretically if the EU was only willing to make a completely unreasonable deal, you'd expect May to still make it?
You always have to be prepared to walk away otherwise you might as well be prepared offer your first born.
Yes, and in this scenario you have to ask the voters in a second referendum
It is Mays deal or a second referendum for me
I am honest on my position and relaxed about it
So if May says no deal and then there's a second referendum on WTO or Remain and WTO wins you'd accept that?
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
The UK has a huge trade deficit in manufacturing with the EU - something in the order of 2:1 in goods generally. The price disadvantage for UK exports under WTO terms will be more than compensated by the domestic markets opened up as EU imports become less competitive here. It is why the Chequers proposal to sign up to a single market in (manufactured) goods only is such folly - it concedes everything at the outset in return for nothing from an EU pushing for even more.
If Chequers falls, what we will have in the short term is a far less comprehensive set of arrangements put together at the last minute to continue trading on WTO terms. At that point, the EU nations would realise that the UK has not blinked as Barnier told them we would, and we would at last be able to negotiate something more comprehensive from a position of strength, as the EU nations sought to regain some sort of access to the lucrative UK market.
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
I have no sympathy for May. She has done a poor job negotiating because she never believed in Brexit. In which case, she should never have put her hand up for the job. The NI backstop was one of the single biggest mistakes ever made by a British PM.
Now, question for you. You have supported Chequers but lets take May at her word (!) - if the EU won't drop the NI backstop that she has said she would never sign and she therefore elects for No Deal, would you support that?
Of course you have no sympathy with TM. You just want us to crash out on your ultra hard brexit and trash UK jobs including my families
Of course I will support any deal TM brings back but no way will I support no deal, I would betray my family
Actually I asked if you would support May if she comes back and declares No Deal?
No
So theoretically if the EU was only willing to make a completely unreasonable deal, you'd expect May to still make it?
You always have to be prepared to walk away otherwise you might as well be prepared offer your first born.
Yes, and in this scenario you have to ask the voters in a second referendum
It is Mays deal or a second referendum for me
I am honest on my position and relaxed about it
So if May says no deal and then there's a second referendum on WTO or Remain and WTO wins you'd accept that?
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off
Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum
After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
While not impressed by TMs political skills I alsways retain a huge amount of sympathy for her given the shit hand Cameron left his successor
You Leavers said Brexit would be easy.
That we held all the aces and that they needed us more.
That German companies would force Merkel and the EU to give us a good deal.
Remember when people said no deal was just Project Fear.
As usual you do the PB jump straight to the extremes and paint everything in between the same colour. There were lots of different opinions both sides and the campaign was one set of dross against the other.
When the dust settles in a decade or so I wouldnt rulle out history being kinder to TM than it is to DC
It’ll be kinder to Dave. At least he never came out with this.
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
David Cameron lost votes?
Number of Tory votes at general elections
2005: 8,784,915
2010: 10,703,754
2015: 11,334,226
His strategy worked which saw his as the only Tory to win a majority in the last 26 years.
I mean Mrs May couldn't even win a majority with UKIP polling 2%.
Mrs May polled more votes than DC and that was with a totally dire campaign which plain pissed people off. May got 13.6 million votes Id say Dave could have had a slice of the 2.3 million extra if he'd kept his tent bigger.
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Our Country deserves better, much better
Alternatively we don't believe the sky is going to fall if May's deal gets binned, any more than all the failed prior warnings it'd fall if
A: We exited ERM. B: The Euro was to launch without us. C: We didn't join the Euro early on. We were to rule out joining the Euro. E: The uncertainty caused by even having a referendum in the future. F: Immediately following a referendum win for leave. G: After invocation of Article 50.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
A difficult task of her own making, surely. If she had been more conciliatory and less confrontational, she might have received more support and been more successful, in promoting the interests of the country as a whole.
You are coming from a remain standpoint which as near as matters 50% of the argument with the other 50% the polar opposite. TM is trying to square the circle and no one else would have got even this far.
Who do you think would have been better, Boris ???
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Our Country deserves better, much better
Alternatively we don't believe the sky is going to fall if May's deal gets binned, any more than all the failed prior warnings it'd fall if
A: We exited ERM. B: The Euro was to launch without us. C: We didn't join the Euro early on. We were to rule out joining the Euro. E: The uncertainty caused by even having a referendum in the future. F: Immediately following a referendum win for leave. G: After invocation of Article 50.
And so on.
It does not stop me despairing about the state of my party
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
The UK has a huge trade deficit in manufacturing with the EU - something in the order of 2:1 in goods generally. The price disadvantage for UK exports under WTO terms will be more than compensated by the domestic markets opened up as EU imports become less competitive here. It is why the Chequers proposal to sign up to a single market in (manufactured) goods only is such folly - it concedes everything at the outset in return for nothing from an EU pushing for even more.
If Chequers falls, what we will have in the short term is a far less comprehensive set of arrangements put together at the last minute to continue trading on WTO terms. At that point, the EU nations would realise that the UK has not blinked as Barnier told them we would, and we would at last be able to negotiate something more comprehensive from a position of strength, as the EU nations sought to regain some sort of access to the lucrative UK market.
The UK market is too small to allow manufacturing to be on-shored at a scale that will allow it to compete on price and quality with EU imports unless the import tariff is very high.
What the perspective of those pushing for a second referendum in the event of "no deal" boils down to is this:
The UK vote to Leave was on the basis that we accepted whatever terms the EU offered without which we would need another referendum. And because they EU didn't and don't want us to leave, they would offer terms that could not possibly be accepted, which is exactly as it has turned out. So basically we might as well have had a second referendum immediately after the first, until we got the answer the EU wanted. Even better, as we told you when it all kicked off at the start of the decade, we could have avoided a lot of needless faffing about by not having had a referendum in the first place.
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
And what were the 'right wing' offering him aside from squealing and screaming over the EU? *They* are the ones who did not know when to stop. Aside from that, it's odd to suggest that his centrist policies hadn't gone far enough when he didn't get a large majority.
All you are doing is shifting the blame onto someone you don't like, rather than looking hard in the mirror.
"The millions would have paid for themselves..."
On what do you base that claim?
I dont like Osborne, I have nothing against Cameron, I find him something of a tragic figure. He had lots of potential but didnt realise it.
As for the millions the EU ref cost about £142 million the cost of exiting will exceed that comfortably.
That's not an argument for a pointless referendum, as one on a signed Lisbon treaty would have been. At least this way leavers have got what they want, whatever the heck that is.
SALZBURG, Austria — Brexit “de-dramatizing” was on the red carpet at the EU leaders’ summit Thursday.
A dispute over how to prevent the recreation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is the biggest obstacle to completion of a withdrawal treaty between the EU and the U.K. But Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Thursday gave little hint of the electricity that has surrounded the issue.
“Well, we have a border already in the sense that there is a political border,” Varadkar reassured, as he arrived at the informal summit in Salzburg, Austria. “And a different currency is used in Northern Ireland versus Ireland for example, so a political border does exist,” Varadkar added in comments that could have come from the most enthusiastic Brexiteer.
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
I'm in Birmingham most weeks. I always had a soft spot for the old Birmingham library.
Farage and Boulton having a ding dong on Sky and it is becoming just such a turn off
Constant attacks on TM from all sides must be switching so many people off Indeed has any Prime Minister ever had such a difficult task and I believe the public may well have an increasing admiration and trust in her not mirrored by those so into politics including those of us on this forum After all someone has to do it and no one wants it until the hard part is done
A difficult task of her own making, surely. If she had been more conciliatory and less confrontational, she might have received more support and been more successful, in promoting the interests of the country as a whole.
You are coming from a remain standpoint which as near as matters 50% of the argument with the other 50% the polar opposite. TM is trying to square the circle and no one else would have got even this far.
Who do you think would have been better, Boris ???
Anyone who was willing to risk walking away - as May herself knew that she should and used that language but didn't mean it. That doesn't mean you actually want to walk away empty handed, it just means be prepared to if negotiations fail.
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
The UK has a huge trade deficit in manufacturing with the EU - something in the order of 2:1 in goods generally. The price disadvantage for UK exports under WTO terms will be more than compensated by the domestic markets opened up as EU imports become less competitive here. It is why the Chequers proposal to sign up to a single market in (manufactured) goods only is such folly - it concedes everything at the outset in return for nothing from an EU pushing for even more.
If Chequers falls, what we will have in the short term is a far less comprehensive set of arrangements put together at the last minute to continue trading on WTO terms. At that point, the EU nations would realise that the UK has not blinked as Barnier told them we would, and we would at last be able to negotiate something more comprehensive from a position of strength, as the EU nations sought to regain some sort of access to the lucrative UK market.
The UK market is too small to allow manufacturing to be on-shored at a scale that will allow it to compete on price and quality with EU imports unless the import tariff is very high.
Ive spent most of my life walking round factories in Europe and running them, This really isnt the case. And since we are entering a world of customised manufacture batch size and product life are becoming daily less relevant,
Cameron had been open about moving to the. imo wed still be in the EU if he had.
"His response to his right wingers was fk off and join UKIP,"
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
Im not being remotely silly. Cameron asked hsi right wing to swallow a large slab of his detox plan which they did. The problem he had was he didnt know when to stop or when to throw a bit of red meat to them. he lost votes needlessly through a combination of sit at homes and defections to UKIP.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
And what were the 'right wing' offering him aside from squealing and screaming over the EU? *They* are the ones who did not know when to stop. Aside from that, it's odd to suggest that his centrist policies hadn't gone far enough when he didn't get a large majority.
All you are doing is shifting the blame onto someone you don't like, rather than looking hard in the mirror.
"The millions would have paid for themselves..."
On what do you base that claim?
I dont like Osborne, I have nothing against Cameron, I find him something of a tragic figure. He had lots of potential but didnt realise it.
As for the millions the EU ref cost about £142 million the cost of exiting will exceed that comfortably.
That's not an argument for a pointless referendum, as one on a signed Lisbon treaty would have been. At least this way leavers have got what they want, whatever the heck that is.
well we can agree to disagree, but going in to an EU summit with a stronger negotiating hand seems value for money to me,
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
I'm in Birmingham most weeks. I always had a soft spot for the old Birmingham library.
The one recently demolished, or the Victorian one? Possibly before your time!
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
I'm in Birmingham most weeks. I always had a soft spot for the old Birmingham library.
The one recently demolished, or the Victorian one? Possibly before your time!
The recently demolished one (which was very new when I first went to Birmingham as a kid visiting family).
I cannot comprehend the stupidity of a no deal or the threat to my families jobs in manufacturing so if the choice is no deal the voters have to have a say, - indeed politically a no deal will not get through the HOC
The UK has a huge trade deficit in manufacturing with the EU - something in the order of 2:1 in goods generally. The price disadvantage for UK exports under WTO terms will be more than compensated by the domestic markets opened up as EU imports become less competitive here. It is why the Chequers proposal to sign up to a single market in (manufactured) goods only is such folly - it concedes everything at the outset in return for nothing from an EU pushing for even more.
If Chequers falls, what we will have in the short term is a far less comprehensive set of arrangements put together at the last minute to continue trading on WTO terms. At that point, the EU nations would realise that the UK has not blinked as Barnier told them we would, and we would at last be able to negotiate something more comprehensive from a position of strength, as the EU nations sought to regain some sort of access to the lucrative UK market.
The UK market is too small to allow manufacturing to be on-shored at a scale that will allow it to compete on price and quality with EU imports unless the import tariff is very high.
WTO tariffs are indeed quite small generall. The UK market though is not as insignificant in scale as you think and that also ignores how it could be opened up to countries outside of the EU. If there were more of a balance between our imports and exports I would be more concerned, but the traffic is so imbalanced now that I cannot accept that our 45 years in the EU have done UK manufacturing good rather than harm.
EU exporters to the UK would also be concerned about the fact that they would become less uncompetitive against exports to the UK originating from outside of the EU. Again, that is a reason to reach a deal gaining renewed access to UK markets in return for offering something back.
But I think it would require a period of trade on WTO terms first, and unfortunately that requires May to recognise the strength of her position and to call the EU's bluff.
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
I'm in Birmingham most weeks. I always had a soft spot for the old Birmingham library.
The one recently demolished, or the Victorian one? Possibly before your time!
The recently demolished one (which was very new when I first went to Birmingham as a kid visiting family).
It was very pleasant when it first opened - lacked the Victorian original's gothic grandeur - but time and the weather were not kind to it - last seen in BBC's The Game
well we can agree to disagree, but going in to an EU summit with a stronger negotiating hand seems value for money to me,
Firstly, a referendum on a treaty that had already been signed, with no obvious action after a 'win' for whatever the 'against' clause was, would probably have lost as it was pointless. Therefore the hand would have been much weaker.
Secondly, in the unlikely event the 'against' clause had won, the EU would just have shrugged and said:" The Lisbon treaty has already been signed. What do you expect us to do about it?"
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Our Country deserves better, much better
Alternatively we don't believe the sky is going to fall if May's deal gets binned, any more than all the failed prior warnings it'd fall if
A: We exited ERM. B: The Euro was to launch without us. C: We didn't join the Euro early on. We were to rule out joining the Euro. E: The uncertainty caused by even having a referendum in the future. F: Immediately following a referendum win for leave. G: After invocation of Article 50.
And so on.
Most of us now take such warnings with a very healthy pinch of salt.
Off topic, I find that I will be in Birmingham for much of next week, not on party conference business. Would I be correct in guessing that a fair number of pbers will be there also?
I'm sure you've been already - but the Library is well worth a visit - even better than the Victorian one demolished to make way for the ring road, and certainly better than the inverted ziggurat it replaced. New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
I'm in Birmingham most weeks. I always had a soft spot for the old Birmingham library.
It is a shame that the ultra Brexiteers do not take into account the views of many of us in the middle who despair at their fanaticism and do not accept that the deal TM brings back should be binned in favour of the impossible dream
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Our Country deserves better, much better
It is the Labour Rightists who haven't realised that Cameron and Osborne took over the Blair Project and since the membership have retaken control of the party, left them no where else to go. While the Nu-Blairites in the Tories are doing the same thing as they did for Labour in dragging the party away from traditional Conservative values.
Comments
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You always have to be prepared to walk away otherwise you might as well be prepared offer your first born.
I cannot see how the country could have avoided a referendum in the short- or medium-term, but I regret that it's ended up as I predicted, with leavers absolutely clueless on where to go next, and blaming everyone else for their mistakes.
Now you really are being silly. I could easily express that as: "Cameron wasn't doing everything that leavers wanted, so some stamped their feet, screamed and ran off to the racists and loonies in UKIP."
That's a stain on their character, not his.
A post-Lisbon treaty referendum would have been utterly pointless and a waste of millions of pounds. Even as a symbol it would have been pointless as no actions could logically follow from it.
As is supplicancy if you're not prepared to risk no-deal.
It will pass in the commons.
Whatever it is can be unpicked over time - probably helped by the EU disappearing down the plughole of history.
Then a new PM.
It is Mays deal or a second referendum for me
I am honest on my position and relaxed about it
I'm not expecting any of this, mind. Theresa May (motto: faute de mieux) will probably get whatever deal she eventually capitulates on through Parliament.
If May can't strike a deal with the EU, telling her to try again is not going to achieve anything.
Politics is about power and confidence, if you don’t have either then you have nothing. It is not about federalist fantasies based on technicalities.
and as for Lisbon we just disagree, Cameron naturally couldnt have unsigned the treaty but a strong anti treaty vote would have given him a much stronger hand in negotiations going forward. The millions would have paid for themselves and wed still be in the EU.
It really is a stark photo of how men in suits dominate the organisation
All you are doing is shifting the blame onto someone you don't like, rather than looking hard in the mirror.
"The millions would have paid for themselves..."
On what do you base that claim?
Men in gray suits can visit as much as they like but TMay stays put
In the UK, leaving aside the female head of state (inherited, of course), we have a female PM, female Scottish First Minister, and female head of the (theoretical) government in Northern Ireland. Only Wales has a male political leader.
I don't think it matters that 75% of said executive leading roles are occupied by women, and the same would be true if Wales were led by a woman or men held every role. Competence trumps gender.
What was it you were saying about power and confidence?
Number of Tory votes at general elections
2005: 8,784,915
2010: 10,703,754
2015: 11,334,226
His strategy worked which saw his as the only Tory to win a majority in the last 26 years.
I mean Mrs May couldn't even win a majority with UKIP polling 2%.
So what about the Brexoloons? And haven't we legislated not to allow this. Well of course we will call it something else.
That is all excluding the possibility that we go the whole hog and the UK stays in the SM/CU which I don't think likely but which is possible.
As for the millions the EU ref cost about £142 million the cost of exiting will exceed that comfortably.
If Chequers falls, what we will have in the short term is a far less comprehensive set of arrangements put together at the last minute to continue trading on WTO terms. At that point, the EU nations would realise that the UK has not blinked as Barnier told them we would, and we would at last be able to negotiate something more comprehensive from a position of strength, as the EU nations sought to regain some sort of access to the lucrative UK market.
The real problem for them is that those of us in the party who want a deal are being driven to the conclusion that if they stop TM's deal, they have to be stopped from committing economic harri kari come what may.
I am a sad conservative today watching my party tear itself apart and truly despair, no doubt like the many labour supporters who see the hard left destroying their party
Our Country deserves better, much better
New Street has been titivated, but its still no better than mediocre.
I usually take Chiltern Rail from Marylebone to Moor Street - slightly longer than Virgin, but reliable, free Wifi and cheap as chips.
Close Belfast docks to everything but passenger traffic. This would channel all GB-NI goods through Dublin and thus through a customs zone frontier.
I know it's a barking mad proposal, but Brexit calls for blue sky thinking!
A: We exited ERM.
B: The Euro was to launch without us.
C: We didn't join the Euro early on.
E: The uncertainty caused by even having a referendum in the future.
F: Immediately following a referendum win for leave.
G: After invocation of Article 50.
And so on.
Who do you think would have been better, Boris ???
The UK vote to Leave was on the basis that we accepted whatever terms the EU offered without which we would need another referendum. And because they EU didn't and don't want us to leave, they would offer terms that could not possibly be accepted, which is exactly as it has turned out. So basically we might as well have had a second referendum immediately after the first, until we got the answer the EU wanted. Even better, as we told you when it all kicked off at the start of the decade, we could have avoided a lot of needless faffing about by not having had a referendum in the first place.
A dispute over how to prevent the recreation of a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland is the biggest obstacle to completion of a withdrawal treaty between the EU and the U.K. But Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar on Thursday gave little hint of the electricity that has surrounded the issue.
“Well, we have a border already in the sense that there is a political border,” Varadkar reassured, as he arrived at the informal summit in Salzburg, Austria. “And a different currency is used in Northern Ireland versus Ireland for example, so a political border does exist,” Varadkar added in comments that could have come from the most enthusiastic Brexiteer.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-avoid-rocking-brexit-boat-salzburg-ireland-border/
https://twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/1042676947191558145
EU exporters to the UK would also be concerned about the fact that they would become less uncompetitive against exports to the UK originating from outside of the EU. Again, that is a reason to reach a deal gaining renewed access to UK markets in return for offering something back.
But I think it would require a period of trade on WTO terms first, and unfortunately that requires May to recognise the strength of her position and to call the EU's bluff.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1042728804026863617
NEW THREAD
Secondly, in the unlikely event the 'against' clause had won, the EU would just have shrugged and said:" The Lisbon treaty has already been signed. What do you expect us to do about it?"