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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the GE2015 outcome was as the current betting suggests then LAB would probably avoid a coalition
Unlike all previous general elections over the past 20 years there are no spread betting prices which give a really good pointer to current betting sentiment.
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I've been concerned about the implications for the economy and the financial markets of such an outcome for some time. I had thought that there was about a year from now before this would begin to matter - i.e. ample time for anyone with an ISA or pension fund to move investments out of companies which are likely to be hit by UK economic instability, rising interest rates and a falling pound - but we've already seen the damage Ed Miliband has done to the share prices of our electricity generating companies and to investment in generation capacity.
Of course it may not come to this; the predictive power of the betting markets 20 months ahead of an election is not particularly high. However, better to plan for the worst whilst hoping for the best.
There appear to be a lot of lower ranked positions issued but very few people removed from the payroll. Is he giving more of his MPs a reason to be loyal to him by using the good old 'pay roll' stick and carrot?
Beasts will emerge from the sea; dark clouds will cover the sky; birds will fly south, never to return; rumours of witches and demons will spread; there will be pestilence and drought; the crops will fail; evil shadows will prowl a devastated countryside; in the cities children will starve; perpetual frost will cover the land; the churches will burn; there will be no hope; all will be lost; England will slide into the ocean's depths; nothing; there will be nothing; the end.
regards to Noggin the Nog.
http://www.cityam.com/article/1381279702/rejection-proposals-self-regulation-dire-news-our-press
"More of the 1,031 people surveyed feel bin collections, parks and libraries, schools and bus services have improved than those who think they are worse. But the responses indicate people think the quality of elderly care, hospitals, police and road maintenance is lower.
Councils say funding remains a concern. The Local Government Association says overall the results are testament to the resilience of councils, but says that unless finances become sustainable, satisfaction levels will decline.
It is five years since the bail-out of the banks marked a new era of austerity in Britain amid warnings that deep cuts to state spending would see the standard of public services plunge.
But today's poll by ICM suggests six out of 10 people think service quality has been maintained or improved. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24454006
RT @AdamWagner1: LIVE images from new Home Office minister's office: pic.twitter.com/dJ7DKys7xE
Alexander Lebedev @lebedevalex
And we cannot pay for some newspapers issues accordingly.Debt in arrears about 5 mio USD.One should initiate bankruptcy procedure?
I know some Labour people were unenthusiastic about a coalition last time, but they were obviously exhausted and in any case they didn't really have the numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24396390
Wasn't it called Zaire a few decades ago? I'd guess, from the article, that was under Mobutu.
Con 355-360
Lab 203-208
LD 49-52
That was actually six seats higher for Labour than it had been a week before.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/10/19/the-money-starts-going-back-on-labour/
Re LDs - much depends on the composition of the party in Parliament after the GE and which faction is in the ascendant. If Labour was the largest party, it might not follow that the LDs are prepared to go into Coalition with Ed M, or that Ed M decides conditions like the emasculation of Ed B and LDs holding Treasury posts are unacceptable. The horse trading might take longer next time round.
Labour would also probably want yet another election under the old boundaries to improve their chance of stealing an advantage.
Most people will judge the outcomes on polling day. I suspect the LibDems will be considered to have done a reasonable job by a significant proportion of their 2010 voters, albeit grudgingly. Those voters will have to assess whether Labour has anything extra to offer. I suspect many will come to the conclusion that they don't. Over the next 18 months, the LibDem 2010 vote will move away from Labour and towards LibDem/can't be arsed.
The Tories will also pick up a "grudging respect" element to their vote too. They only need to convince 1 in 200 of the voters each month that yes, actually, things are getting better - and their polling position in May 2015 will look a whole lot rosier than it does today.
I can certainly see cross-over with Labour being achieved and maintained by next Conference season.
I was merely pointing out the PB Tory hypocrisy.
@Alan - when does the marriage tax cut kick in?
As with most of the polls UKIP is being unfairly weighted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10365206/IMF-sours-on-BRICs-and-doubts-eurozone-recovery-claims.html
"It said the economies of Brazil, China, and India will be 8pc to 14pc smaller in 2016 than had been assumed just two years ago, a revision that calls into question some of the giddiest claims that the newcomers will soon surge past the decaying West.
Since emerging markets now make up half the global economy, the IMF has had to cut its world forecast to 2.9pc this year and 3.6pc in 2014, with plenty of “downside risks”, especially in Europe."
A bit like the energy price wheeze this is just headline grabbing tinkering - but at least it is not damaging to investment in new power stations.
Brown was the incumbent Prime Minister, and he hung on in Downing Street until the Tories and Lib Dems reached an agreement on a Coalition, and so had the numbers to turf him out.
If GE2015 is in line with the line betting above, then Miliband will not have the numbers to turf Cameron out of Downing Street, unless he has the Lib Dems on his side. Furthermore, to achieve such a distribution of seats it is quite likely that the Tories will have received more votes than Labour, and so there would be some electoral justification for a continuation of the Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition, though such a Coalition would itself be short of a majority.
In my view, therefore, the only options will be for a formal Labour/Lib Dem Coalition, which would have a workable majority of more than 40, or another election to resolve the split seats/votes judgement of the electorate.
Economy - after IMF? don't think so
Education - after OEDC? doubt it
Health - after Burnham shambles? unlikely
Cuts - after report shows majority feel services have improved? problematic
I would predict something dull, sober and low key that doesn't invite a kicking
http://www.amazon.co.uk/War-that-Ended-Peace-abandoned/dp/184668272X/ref=la_B000APOOI4_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1381306936&sr=1-1
(Note: you've nearly got the point above. One last intellectual push and you'll understand.)
Is there a term for someone who tries to construct arguments around a single data point ?
It's possible that the 165,000 "middle class families" due to be fined for non-registration for self-assessment as a result of the child benefit changes could make an appearance too. Soft target, though some obvious answers available to Cameron about helping poorer families in other ways. It would probably need to be coupled with the higher earrners' childcare tax break to stick.
'Janet Yellen, a Backer of Pushing the Fed's Policy Boundaries'
- Expected Nominee for Central-Bank Chief Has Easy-Money Leanings
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303918804579109500690940692.html
It really is Westminster navel gazing at its worst.
So quite possibly Ed will go with it; and cost of living crisis (which seems to be code for public sector wage rises and a price and incomes policy in retro seventies style)
They will want to be able to say "we are only forcing you back to the polls because the Lib Dems refused our kind an generous coalition offer."
Strange to muse on the thought that Ed Miliband might "go it alone" with 308 seats while David Cameron thought he couldn't with 306.
As to what would happen, if those numbers finished up near the truth, I don't expect David Cameron would attmept to cling on by his proverbials - a net loss of 60 seats for the Coalition parties would hardly be seen as a vote of confidence.
As for Labour, the question is whether they could a) persuade some of the other minor parties to offer a Supply and Confidence arrangementto maintain the Government or whether b) they would go to the Liberal Democrats directly seeking the same.
Given that they would need only four or five extra votes to ensure they could outvote the combined Conservative-LD numbers, the former might not be unobtainable. In any case, would either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats want a quick second election ?
No, on those numbers, it's Richard Nabavi's nightmare though I'm happy to be far more sanguine.
LDs and Cons take a bow - no support from Labour for that policy - if anything they want to reintroduce the 10p level so low earners can join in by "contributing".
Conference success only changed his rating from ‘dire’ to ‘poor’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-miliband-has-yet-to-convince-voters-he-can-be-pm-poll-of-polls-reveals-8867356.html
Европейский комиссар @MoodySlayerUK
If Adolphe Miliband did kill someone's kitten Ed Milband will now have to take on 3 billion youtube viewers as well as the press.
fool.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24452551
My guess is in such a scenario Labour would govern as a minority, Clegg would step down (forced out?) and you'd have a new Lib Dem leader who might work more closely with Labour. Whether a coalition might form, who's to say? However there are plenty of Lib Dems who will have got used to government salaries and lifestyles. A five year minority administration does sound a bit flaky.
Can't be bothered to look any further back, but Shelock, August is not a strong month for production. The ONS is measuring the total, not the total with allowances for days lost by strikes, holidays, sickies and people mindlessly posting on the web.
In its ruling, the ASA said the reference to the number of arrests was misleading because it did not relate to those detained in the specific areas where people would have seen the vans. It said the figure referred to arrests which occurred across a large part of north London more than two weeks before the campaign began.
We concluded that the poster was unlikely to incite or exacerbate racial hatred and tensions in multi-cultural communities”
So with a simple modification they can re-appear.....but I suspect the Home Office got more than enough free publicity from the Outrage Bus......
We can play this all day, but the facts remain HMG can and will put money in pockets pre GE Milband can't. As you continually point out our mediocre CoE depends for his life and future prospects on re-relection. A man that desperate isn't going to save up cash for Ed Balls.
So bribes will follow and the man who chose the CoL battleground will wonder why the other side have bullets to fire and he hasn't . A stupid strategy from a man more stupid than Osborne. Really where does Labour find them ?
Anyhoo, here's Isabel Hardman's take , I know you always like to have your anecdotes from a journalist since you can't work things out for yourself. Nice to see George and Mikey smiling.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/tory-cost-of-living-drive-begins-in-earnest/
And the New Labour idiots told us there were only 13,000 immigrants that would come to the UK from Eastern Europe,only 2 million out.
There really should be a threshold of something like 20,000 (there were just over 200) complaints before they get involved in wasting money by investigating and pontificating about things that really are unimportant.
The lady who sorted Abu Quatada (and his family) is unlikely to be fazed by Norman Baker.
"Norman Baker, the new Home Office Minister who believes MI5 covered up the murder of Dr David Kelly, will not be granted access to classified documents on counter-terrorism issues.
The Home Office told spy chiefs the Liberal Democrat conspiracy theorist will not learn their secrets, security sources said."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2450671/Norman-Baker-closed-door-theory-David-Kelly-murdered.html#ixzz2hDNM6ciC
Thank GO for that one...
'Throughout the session, I would appeal to my colleagues here particularly, and also to you, Secretary of State, to try to keep questions and answers short and pithy. We may not always manage the 140 characters of Twitter...'
'And continuing the stats theme, here comes Madrassa Gove'
And slightly more significant stats.
England's young adults trail world in literacy and maths
BBC News - 1 day ago
By Sean Coughlan BBC News education correspondent ... The OECD's Andreas Schleicher warned of a shrinking pool of skilled workers.
Why does everything Labour touches end in a cluster.uck?
"Users are reminded that all figures contained within this release are seasonally adjusted estimates."
Sorry to spoil your fun tim, but I thought I'd point out the obvious to philip before he makes more of a fool of himself.
'2 Million Eastern Europeans in the UK, I know you're clueless but really, don't just make stuff up.'
656,395 in just 3 years registered on a voluntary basis,it's you that's clueless.
'The Home Office publishes quarterly statistics on applications to the Worker Registration Scheme. Figures published in August 2007 indicated that some 656,395 persons were accepted on to the scheme between 1 May 2004 and 30 June 2007, of whom 430,395 were Polish nationals. However, as the scheme is voluntary, offers no financial incentive and is not enforced immigrants are free to ignore the scheme. They may work legally in the UK provided they have a Polish identity card or passport and a National Insurance number. This has led to some estimates of Polish nationals in the UK being much higher.[25]'
One second after checking on google...
http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Restaurant_Review-g186338-d1018419-Reviews-Porters_English_Restaurant-London_England.html
A minute later...
http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Search?q=English+cuisine&geo=186338&pid=3826&returnTo=http%3A__2F____2F__www__2E__tripadvisor__2E__co__2E__uk__2F__Restaurant__5F__Review__2D__g186338__2D__d1018419__2D__Reviews__2D__Porters__5F__English__5F__Restaurant__2D__London__5F__England__2E__html#ssrc=u,o=10,c=local
norman smith @BBCNormanS 1m
Speaker turns down Labour request for Urgent Commons question on #badgers
Bad first day at school for @TristramHuntMP RE skills. No one swallowing risible line about "huge improvements in GCSE results" under Labour
Tory education news @toryeducation
Sun leader: "...But these were rendered all but meaningless by the grade inflation Labour oversaw” @TristramHuntMP (2/2)
oh dear pinning your hopes on Osborne's iffy stats. They'll get revised upwards with time like the two dips that weren't. Do I believe half collected data or what the blokes in the Midlands here are saying ? Not really that tough a call. But go on believe what you will, it keeps us entertained.