I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
I think you're Russian to conclusions there!
Undoubtedly me old China. But don't Ukraine your neck to keep up!
The night is young, we can't Finnish this early
I agree, there is Norway we can give up.
That's a nice way to Sweden up a sour relationship
I have never been less than Frank about my punning.
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
I think you're Russian to conclusions there!
Undoubtedly me old China. But don't Ukraine your neck to keep up!
The night is young, we can't Finnish this early
I agree, there is Norway we can give up.
That's a nice way to Sweden up a sour relationship
Ws it through bullying or in other words: Jamaica? Alaska?
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
Russia could be a world superpower once again; it has so much going for it. Unfortunately the leadership are incapable of taking advantage of the benefits it has, and therefore resorts to trying to reduce everyone else down to their level.
It has so much wasted potential.
You would have said based on a number of factors that the world superpowers of the next century should be Russia, China, the US, Brazil and possibly Canada if it wants it. Those are the ones with the size, the population and the natural resources to make a go of it. Australia has the size and resources, not the population; India the size and population but not the resources. The European nations have neither the size nor the resources.
Although Russia is currently in the doldrums I wouldn't write it off yet. It went from being weaker than Poland under Lenin to being one of the world's two superpowers and arguably briefly the most technologically advanced of the two in a mere forty years. It might do it again.
Canada has a population about half that of the UK, most of Russia is in Europe
Canada is much closer to Australia in terms of population than any of the other countries.
Vietnam has a population almost three times that of Canada...
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
I think you're Russian to conclusions there!
Undoubtedly me old China. But don't Ukraine your neck to keep up!
The night is young, we can't Finnish this early
I agree, there is Norway we can give up.
That's a nice way to Sweden up a sour relationship
Ws it through bullying or in other words: Jamaica? Alaska?
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
No deal is actually WTO Brexit with lots of side agreements, such as about respective citizen rights, driving licences, air travel and so on/
Ok TSE. We get it. It’s abundantly clear from your many well thought through posts. You are a tory wet and hate Boris.
However. One important calculation you must make if you are going to risk your own money on The betting markets is:
Many lifelong Tory voters, such as myself, will NEVER vote for a government that gave us chequers. There is zero possibility that I will care much about Project Korbyn Fear. So when that comes, I will remain unmoved. And unwilling to add my vote to the tory tally.
Bear in mind, that vote and the tens of thousands of similar ones, gave old Thesa Greyjoyess the benfit of the doubt last time. And even with our support, she failed.
She can kiss all those kippers goodbye too. 5-15% of her borrowed vote won’t turn up next time. And another similar amount of her own core won’t either.
Saying Boris and give are so inept they cannot organise an election and will gift if to Korbyn might be true. But it is a certainty that Tess or anyone of her Remainer wing taking over instead, will lose.
And the Korbyn coalition of chaos and free stuff will take over.
And I’m fine with that. Because we probably have to relearn the historical lessons of both communism and Appeasement before we can move on.
And Jez will probably take over just as the next, overdue, recession hits. So a buckets of cash, don’t worry about debt, government, might be quite handy to have around.
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
No deal is actually WTO Brexit with lots of side agreements, such as about respective citizen rights, driving licences, air travel and so on/
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
I think you're Russian to conclusions there!
Undoubtedly me old China. But don't Ukraine your neck to keep up!
The night is young, we can't Finnish this early
I agree, there is Norway we can give up.
That's a nice way to Sweden up a sour relationship
Ws it through bullying or in other words: Jamaica? Alaska?
Another Russian Stag Do. Switzerland seems particularly popular.
It's weird. The KGB generally had a reputation at being rather good at this stuff. What on earth has happened?
The Russian President is totally corrupt and has Putin all his mates instead of people who are vaguely competent.
I'll get my coat...
More seriously, I think they're doing a lot of this for show. They are no longer one of the world's top powers, but rather one of a half dozen in the second rank along with India, France, Pakistan, us, Brazil etc. So I think they're trying to put in a show to say they're still big and dangerous and important.
It would be pathetic if it weren't so serious.
I think you're Russian to conclusions there!
Undoubtedly me old China. But don't Ukraine your neck to keep up!
The night is young, we can't Finnish this early
I agree, there is Norway we can give up.
That's a nice way to Sweden up a sour relationship
Ws it through bullying or in other words: Jamaica? Alaska?
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
No deal is actually WTO Brexit with lots of side agreements, such as about respective citizen rights, driving licences, air travel and so on/
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
No deal is actually WTO Brexit with lots of side agreements, such as about respective citizen rights, driving licences, air travel and so on/
So "No Deal" actually requires multiple deals?
A paradox! A paradox! A most perplexing paradox!
Sorry to Sullivan the thread...
#G&Spedant alert
Ingenious rather than perplexing
And you Gilbert-ed rather than Sullivan-ed!!
I think you'll find it's both at different times in the song.
The woman who was hard done by sexist rules in the US Open, was the lady who realised she had her top on the wrong way around and took it off to sort it out. She was wearing a sports bra and nothing unsuitable was shown. In comparison men are for ever taking their shirts off when they get sweaty, which is often commented on in a positive way.
This only works if you think the rules governing topless women should be the same as the rules governing topless men.
Ummm: that's not really true. Sports bras are hardly revealing items. Indeed, if you were ever to watch a spin class, you'd find that many of the women just wear sports bras. (On their upper body, obviously.)
A spin class - is that where you learn how to be a government spokesperson?
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
No deal is actually WTO Brexit with lots of side agreements, such as about respective citizen rights, driving licences, air travel and so on/
So "No Deal" actually requires multiple deals?
A paradox! A paradox! A most perplexing paradox!
Sorry to Sullivan the thread...
#G&Spedant alert
Ingenious rather than perplexing
And you Gilbert-ed rather than Sullivan-ed!!
I think you'll find it's both at different times in the song.
Should I do Penzance for the second part?
I can permit a startling or curious in different parts of the song - but no perplexing in the lyrics at all
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
To be honest I really do not mind if you decide to vote for Korbyn (as you spell his name)
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a rewarding experience.
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a valuable experience.
Yes I am sure she will
It is another example of how special this forum is and how much good it can do as we learn from one another
Mind you I suppose not everyone wants to learn from each other
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a valuable experience.
Yes I am sure she will
It is another example of how special this forum is and how much good it can do as we learn from one another
Mind you I suppose not everyone wants to learn from each other
When we come together in positive discussions, this is a great forum. We need to do more of it
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a valuable experience.
Yes I am sure she will
It is another example of how special this forum is and how much good it can do as we learn from one another
Mind you I suppose not everyone wants to learn from each other
When we come together in positive discussions, this is a great forum. We need to do more of it
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a valuable experience.
I read that thread this morning, and I'd just like to wish you all the best.
When I was a teenager, I thought I was 'depressed'. Then I went to university and met a wider circle of people, including an anorexic who became a dear friend, and another chap who did suffer from depression, and I realised all I had ever suffered from was the usual teenage angst cr@p; my low feelings were nowhere near as all-consuming as that poor chap.
I have low moments (who doesn't?), but I have never, thank God, suffered from depression. My heart goes out to those who do, for it can be just as debilitating as (say) a lost limb, yet is nowhere near as visible.
Re your comments last night on mental heath I forwarded them to my daughter (47) who has had issues but is presently doing very well and she tells me that following your comments she has applied today to be a mental health first aider in her department at the DWP. They are seeking upto 40 or so for North Wales
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
Of course not - I think anything we can do to break down barriers and give people access to quality help is fantastic.
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a valuable experience.
I read that thread this morning, and I'd just like to wish you all the best.
When I was a teenager, I thought I was 'depressed'. Then I went to university and met a wider circle of people, including an anorexic who became a dear friend, and another chap who did suffer from depression, and I realised all I had ever suffered from was the usual teenage angst cr@p; my low feelings were nowhere near as all-consuming as that poor chap.
I have low moments (who doesn't?), but I have never, thank God, suffered from depression. My heart goes out to those who do, for it can be just as debilitating as (say) a lost limb, yet is nowhere near as visible.
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
At what point do you think the Telegraph editors might ask whether his £250k a year contract should result in something a bit more varied than a tweaked version of the same column every Monday?
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
At what point do you think the Telegraph editors might ask whether his £250k a year contract should result in something a bit more varied than a tweaked version of the same column every Monday?
He is hardly making friends with his colleagues if he wants to attract their support in a leadership bid. He may play to his core but that will not see him in no 10
The woman who was hard done by sexist rules in the US Open, was the lady who realised she had her top on the wrong way around and took it off to sort it out. She was wearing a sports bra and nothing unsuitable was shown. In comparison men are for ever taking their shirts off when they get sweaty, which is often commented on in a positive way.
This only works if you think the rules governing topless women should be the same as the rules governing topless men.
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
Why on earth do you think "high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he [Corbyn] got in"?
Off topic but for those betting on the US elections, a few things to bear in mind.
(1) On the generic Congressional vote, a few people here commented on Quinnipac having a 14pc Democratic lead but keep in mind the spread on their lead has been vast in the polls. The range goes from +3 (Economist) to this +14% in the latest polls. So Quinnipac is not typical.
(2) The Senate polls have become more favourable for the GOP in the past week or so. The latest ones have them +4 in North Dakota, +2 in Indiana (where the polls had the Dems with a comfortable lead), in the lead again in Tennessee. Florida and Missouri are essentially tied. Arizona the same (the two most recent polls have one for the GOP, one for the Dems in the lead). Nevada, which should be the most obvious gain, is still showing only a +1 Dem lead. The concern for the Democrats should be that, if Indiana and North Dakota are seeing the GOP moving away, then it could mean Trump voters are now moving more decisively back to the GOP candidates, which would put Montana and West Virginia is play. But these
(3) The recent individual seat polls on the RCP toss-up seats in the House are not pointing to anything like a Blue Wave. CA-48, which should be a fairly safe Dem gain, is neck and neck. The GOP has a +8 lead in CA50, +6 in WI-1, +5 in ME2, +4 in VA-7, +16 in IA3, +8 in TX23, +8% in WV3, all counted as toss-ups. The Dems are ahead in some GOP seats but, even there, their leads tend to be slender (+1 in NC2, KS2, +2 in NY22, +2 in PA-7 which is counted as "Lean Dem"). That may change but, if you were a Democrat looking at some of those numbers, and with 2 months to go, you might be worried.
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
Why on earth do you think "high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he [Corbyn] got in"?
Not answering for KitchenCabinet but assume if Corbyn came near power wealth in the Country would find pastures new very quickly
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
Why on earth do you think "high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he [Corbyn] got in"?
Increased taxes on wealthier parts of society, reducing amount for discretionary spending is the obvious answer.
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
BigG,I haven't seen that. This Parliament has an unusually high number of very marginal seats. Even 5% of the Tory base switching votes / staying at home has a dramatic impact. But that may change with the boundary review.
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne. But the Conservative party has never been like that, it has also has had a range of opinions from Thatcherites to One Nation Tories to socially conservative duffers,
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
BigG,I haven't seen that. This Parliament has an unusually high number of very marginal seats. Even 5% of the Tory base switching votes / staying at home has a dramatic impact. But that may change with the boundary review.
I think politics is so febrile at present we have no way of realistically predicting the future. However, it is clear TM will act in the national interest as best she sees it and both ultra leavers and remainers will be unhappy.
I simply care far more that we do not exit on a no deal /wto basis than keeping some very ukip supporters happy and it is not something I can do or control. I do believe if TM comes back with a deal agreed with the EU it is likely to pass the HOC, as the options of no deal/second referendum would cause a far bigger divide than we have now
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
You have no idea what the deal with the EU will contain.
Why don't you just calm down and see what the actual deal agrees, you may well be surprised
I'd remind you a Tory wet won a majority whilst UKIP polled 13% in a general election.”
Well that’s good news. Because you won’t get it. And if you read what I said, you’d realise, your WE Is me and you. I’m not now, and never have been a kipper. But have always been, since 1987,a tory. And campaigned for Useless last time out.
So, I shall take my “stinking blue vote” that you do not need, and it will remain unused. Along with thousands and thousands of other tory votes.
You can disbelieve all you like. But wilful ignorance didn’t do Clegg much good when his party effectively ceased to exist after he carried out his own ‘great betrayal.’
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
The deal that you say Gove and co are OK with is not available. Remainers keep talking about Chequers as if it is achievable. The EU have refused the customs partnership which will make any deal unacceptable to these Leavers.
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
BigG,I haven't seen that. This Parliament has an unusually high number of very marginal seats. Even 5% of the Tory base switching votes / staying at home has a dramatic impact. But that may change with the boundary review.
I think politics is so febrile at present we have no way of realistically predicting the future. However, it is clear TM will act in the national interest as best she sees it and both ultra leavers and remainers will be unhappy.
I simply care far more that we do not exit on a no deal /wto basis than keeping some very ukip supporters happy and it is not something I can do or control. I do believe if TM comes back with a deal agreed with the EU it is likely to pass the HOC, as the options of no deal/second referendum would cause a far bigger divide than we have now
I think there will be a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (which will pass) but that there will not be a vote on any subsequent deal, whether Chequers, WTO or EEA until after Brexit. That is surely what Gove was hinting at today.
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
BigG,I haven't seen that. This Parliament has an unusually high number of very marginal seats. Even 5% of the Tory base switching votes / staying at home has a dramatic impact. But that may change with the boundary review.
I think politics is so febrile at present we have no way of realistically predicting the future. However, it is clear TM will act in the national interest as best she sees it and both ultra leavers and remainers will be unhappy.
I simply care far more that we do not exit on a no deal /wto basis than keeping some very ukip supporters happy and it is not something I can do or control. I do believe if TM comes back with a deal agreed with the EU it is likely to pass the HOC, as the options of no deal/second referendum would cause a far bigger divide than we have now
I think there will be a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (which will pass) but that there will not be a vote on any subsequent deal, whether Chequers, WTO or EEA until after Brexit. That is surely what Gove was hinting at today.
You may be right but it is pointless everyone getting ill tempered and fighting the extremes until TM announces the deal which looks like it will happen at the special November Council meeting
I think Gove is very concerned ERG are pushing too hard and ironically be the architect of their own demise
You're not a real conservative. No real conservative would welcome economic ruin, appeasement, and Corbyn because you're not willing to accept the Brexit that the likes of Michael Gove, the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox, and Penny Mordaunt find acceptable.
Your mistake is that you think there is only one type of "real" conservative, namely economically liberal, pro-business and also socially liberal as well i.e. like Cameron and Osborne.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
They do need their base but the ultra leavers are not the base. It is noticeable that UKIP have fallen back a point or two and the party still has a poll lead. I may be wrong as I have not seen it on here but hasn't Kantar shown a 5% conservative lead this weekend
BigG,I haven't seen that. This Parliament has an unusually high number of very marginal seats. Even 5% of the Tory base switching votes / staying at home has a dramatic impact. But that may change with the boundary review.
I think politics is so febrile at present we have no way of realistically predicting the future. However, it is clear TM will act in the national interest as best she sees it and both ultra leavers and remainers will be unhappy.
I simply care far more that we do not exit on a no deal /wto basis than keeping some very ukip supporters happy and it is not something I can do or control. I do believe if TM comes back with a deal agreed with the EU it is likely to pass the HOC, as the options of no deal/second referendum would cause a far bigger divide than we have now
I think there will be a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (which will pass) but that there will not be a vote on any subsequent deal, whether Chequers, WTO or EEA until after Brexit. That is surely what Gove was hinting at today.
That means a vote on any final deal could be delayed for years provided the Withdrawal Agreement to get the transition deal passes as negotiations for any final deal will take years
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
At the moment the Tories still have a poll lead in many polls as BigG has stated, despite Chequers
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
Presumably that is why Boris resigned when the backstop was agreed, nine months ago. A man of integrity.
Off topic but for those betting on the US elections, a few things to bear in mind.
(1) On the generic Congressional vote, a few people here commented on Quinnipac having a 14pc Democratic lead but keep in mind the spread on their lead has been vast in the polls. The range goes from +3 (Economist) to this +14% in the latest polls. So Quinnipac is not typical.
(2) The Senate polls have become more favourable for the GOP in the past week or so. The latest ones have them +4 in North Dakota, +2 in Indiana (where the polls had the Dems with a comfortable lead), in the lead again in Tennessee. Florida and Missouri are essentially tied. Arizona the same (the two most recent polls have one for the GOP, one for the Dems in the lead). Nevada, which should be the most obvious gain, is still showing only a +1 Dem lead. The concern for the Democrats should be that, if Indiana and North Dakota are seeing the GOP moving away, then it could mean Trump voters are now moving more decisively back to the GOP candidates, which would put Montana and West Virginia is play. But these
(3) The recent individual seat polls on the RCP toss-up seats in the House are not pointing to anything like a Blue Wave. CA-48, which should be a fairly safe Dem gain, is neck and neck. The GOP has a +8 lead in CA50, +6 in WI-1, +5 in ME2, +4 in VA-7, +16 in IA3, +8 in TX23, +8% in WV3, all counted as toss-ups. The Dems are ahead in some GOP seats but, even there, their leads tend to be slender (+1 in NC2, KS2, +2 in NY22, +2 in PA-7 which is counted as "Lean Dem"). That may change but, if you were a Democrat looking at some of those numbers, and with 2 months to go, you might be worried.
RCP currently has the Democrats ahead in the House with 206 to 190 for the GOP and with 39 tossups.
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
Presumably that is why Boris resigned when the backstop was agreed, nine months ago. A man of integrity.
He says quite clearly, if you bothered to read it, that he was told that it was just a negotiating device and it was not intended that it would ever be used. If you check the press at the time this was the line briefed out by No 10. When it was published as a binding backstop in March May said she would never agree to it.
Boris resigned when May basically agreed to accept the NI backstop as part of Chequers. So I am afraid that your accusation is inaccurate. I would have preferred that he resigned earlier but clearly May was telling lies to all sides about what she intended to so. She still is.
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
At the moment the Tories still have a poll lead in many polls as BigG has stated, despite Chequers
The fact that the Tories are ahead surely makes it MORE likely that the rebels will feel free to vote down May's deal. If it is clear that people are not going to vote in Corbyn anyway, why wouldn't they vote it down?
When you look at the story there's nothing new. This is just a repeat of the de-dramatisation of the backstop that Barnier has been pursuing for weeks.
I think there will be a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (which will pass) but that there will not be a vote on any subsequent deal, whether Chequers, WTO or EEA until after Brexit. That is surely what Gove was hinting at today.
The vote on the WA will NOT pass if it includes the NI backstop. Why do you think the ERG keep hammering away at it? It is unacceptable. Both they and the DUP will vote it down.
Gove has no credibility - he is lying to save his own cabinet skin. In particular, if May agrees the backstop then Brexit cannot be changed later - the backstop treaty agreement is designed to be permanent.
Off topic but for those betting on the US elections, a few things to bear in mind.
(1) On the generic Congressional vote, a few people here commented on Quinnipac having a 14pc Democratic lead but keep in mind the spread on their lead has been vast in the polls. The range goes from +3 (Economist) to this +14% in the latest polls. So Quinnipac is not typical.
(2) The Senate polls have become more favourable for the GOP in the past week or so. The latest ones have them +4 in North Dakota, +2 in Indiana (where the polls had the Dems with a comfortable lead), in the lead again in Tennessee. Florida and Missouri are essentially tied. Arizona the same (the two most recent polls have one for the GOP, one for the Dems in the lead). Nevada, which should be the most obvious gain, is still showing only a +1 Dem lead. The concern for the Democrats should be that, if Indiana and North Dakota are seeing the GOP moving away, then it could mean Trump voters are now moving more decisively back to the GOP candidates, which would put Montana and West Virginia is play. But these
(3) The recent individual seat polls on the RCP toss-up seats in the House are not pointing to anything like a Blue Wave. CA-48, which should be a fairly safe Dem gain, is neck and neck. The GOP has a +8 lead in CA50, +6 in WI-1, +5 in ME2, +4 in VA-7, +16 in IA3, +8 in TX23, +8% in WV3, all counted as toss-ups. The Dems are ahead in some GOP seats but, even there, their leads tend to be slender (+1 in NC2, KS2, +2 in NY22, +2 in PA-7 which is counted as "Lean Dem"). That may change but, if you were a Democrat looking at some of those numbers, and with 2 months to go, you might be worried.
I agree 100% with you re the Senate. It would be a fantastic result for the Dems if they were to stand still, and would still probably be a good result if they were only to lose one or two senate seats given (a) what they hold at this point, and (b) what's up for election.
North Dakota, Montana and West Virginia were all extremely safe Republican states at the General, and it really shouldn't be a surprise if some of them were to flip back to the Republicans.
The House is a harder call. I find the 538 analysis persuasive, which is that the Dems currently look the favourites. (And I'm also sceptical, post 2016, of the accuracy of low level polling. Getting the national picture right is probably the most important thing.)
With all that said, I think that the last thing Trump needs is for the Republicans to hold on to the House and the Senate. I think that would inevitably end in the repeal of Obamacare. And that would be a disaster for Trump and the Republicans. Like Clinton in '94, losing the House would be a blessing for the President.
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
Presumably that is why Boris resigned when the backstop was agreed, nine months ago. A man of integrity.
He says quite clearly, if you bothered to read it, that he was told that it was just a negotiating device and it was not intended that it would ever be used. If you check the press at the time this was the line briefed out by No 10. When it was published as a binding backstop in March May said she would never agree to it.
Boris resigned when May basically agreed to accept the NI backstop as part of Chequers. So I am afraid that your accusation is inaccurate. I would have preferred that he resigned earlier but clearly May was telling lies to all sides about what she intended to so. She still is.
Ah, I must have missed the news that Chequers has been agreed by the EU and it's all signed and sealed.
In the absence of that news, nothing is agreed, including the backstop. And if something like Chequers is eventually agreed there's no need for a backstop. So nothing has changed. Boris is being silly (or, more likely, unprincipled).
[FWIW As I've said many times I actually agree with you that the backstop should have been firmly rejected all along. It's a complete nonsense, the only effect of which is to provide a completely artificial obstacle to what actually needs to be done, which is negotiate the frontstop, not the backstop. But I'm certainly not going to give Boris credit for his weaselly behaviour.]
For those still thinking about impeachment of Trump as a result of Mueller’s investigations (and US history buffs), this is a very interesting article: https://www.lawfareblog.com/watergate-road-map-and-coming-mueller-report The three of us filed a petition on Thursday to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that seeks to rectify this problem. Represented by attorneys at Protect Democracy, we asked the court to unseal the Road Map. We did so because the document is of significant historical interest and significant contemporary interest. As we will explain in this post, which is drawn from declarations that we and others filed in the matter, the Road Map is one of the few significant pieces of Watergate history that remains unavailable to the public. The document is also keenly relevant to current discussions of how Mueller should proceed. It is possible that it is even relevant to discussions taking place within the Mueller investigation itself....
When you look at the story there's nothing new. This is just a repeat of the de-dramatisation of the backstop that Barnier has been pursuing for weeks.
Nothing of the sort.
The EU wanted NI to be subject to the CU and SM rules. You can't 'de-dramatise' that - either NI is part of the UK or it is not. The DUP will never vote for a system where NI follows different rules.
So either May will concede that NI will be subject to the EU regulations, in which case it will get voted down, OR the EU concede that the ERG were right all along and that NI can be subject to UK regulations, in which case (as I have been saying for some time) the EU are preparing to ditch Chequers and push the UK towards CETA.
If the EU are now agreeing that a technological solution IS possible, then that is not a boost for May, it is a huge boost for the ERG.
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
At the moment the Tories still have a poll lead in many polls as BigG has stated, despite Chequers
The fact that the Tories are ahead surely makes it MORE likely that the rebels will feel free to vote down May's deal. If it is clear that people are not going to vote in Corbyn anyway, why wouldn't they vote it down?
On the paper review tonight it was suggested that labour will abstain on the deal vote but Lisa Nandy has already said she would support it
An excellent piece by Boris. The focus on the backstop is spot on - not only is it the excuse for not pursuing CETA but most people now accept that it is nothing to do with the border itself and that it is just an EU tactic. May’s deal will likely fall apart because the backstop will be judged unacceptable.
Presumably that is why Boris resigned when the backstop was agreed, nine months ago. A man of integrity.
He says quite clearly, if you bothered to read it, that he was told that it was just a negotiating device and it was not intended that it would ever be used. If you check the press at the time this was the line briefed out by No 10. When it was published as a binding backstop in March May said she would never agree to it.
Boris resigned when May basically agreed to accept the NI backstop as part of Chequers. So I am afraid that your accusation is inaccurate. I would have preferred that he resigned earlier but clearly May was telling lies to all sides about what she intended to so. She still is.
Ah, I must have missed the news that Chequers has been agreed by the EU and it's all signed and sealed.
In the absence of that news, nothing is agreed, including the backstop. And if something like Chequers is eventually agreed there's no need for a backstop. So nothing has changed. Boris is being silly (or, more likely, unprincipled).
[FWIW As I've said many times I actually agree with you that the backstop should have been firmly rejected all along. It's a complete nonsense, the only effect of which is to provide a completely artificial obstacle to what actually needs to be done, which is negotiate the frontstop, not the backstop. But I'm certainly not going to give Boris credit for his weaselly behaviour.]
May's original idea was that Chequers solved the NI problem so if the EU agreed Chequers there would be no need for a backstop - problem solved.
As you correctly say, the EU will not accept Chequers and keep talking about the backstop. So May has achieved nothing. I can't see any sign that even if the EU accept a sort-of-Chequers-deal that they won't want the backstop. Which is why there is still no progress.
But yes, all the Leavers should have resigned way before now. It is just unfair to pick on Boris who at least has resigned unlike the snake Gove.
If the EU are now agreeing that a technological solution IS possible, then that is not a boost for May, it is a huge boost for the ERG.
The EU aren't agreeing that a technological solution is possible. The journalist has just got the wrong end of the stick, as he has done frequently throughout the negotiations.
May's original idea was that Chequers solved the NI problem so if the EU agreed Chequers there would be no need for a backstop - problem solved.
As you correctly say, the EU will not accept Chequers and keep talking about the backstop. So May has achieved nothing. I can't see any sign that even if the EU accept a sort-of-Chequers-deal that they won't want the backstop. Which is why there is still no progress....
I didn't say that. On the contrary, I think the most likely outcome is that the EU will accept something broadly based on Chequers, but probably with a different administrative arrangement for customs.
It is true that the EU have made such a fuss about the backstop that it will be hard for them to ditch it. I therefore expect it to be fudged out of existence.
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
At the moment the Tories still have a poll lead in many polls as BigG has stated, despite Chequers
The fact that the Tories are ahead surely makes it MORE likely that the rebels will feel free to vote down May's deal. If it is clear that people are not going to vote in Corbyn anyway, why wouldn't they vote it down?
On the paper review tonight it was suggested that labour will abstain on the deal vote but Lisa Nandy has already said she would support it
Labour will decide based on the reaction to May's deal (if she gets one). My prediction is that the spin will hold up for a few days and then collapse as the public focus on it - just like with Chequers. At which point Labour will be free to vote against. Yes, some Labour people will break ranks but there are plenty of ERG people.
The real issue is whether the DUP will no-confidence the Government. If she is following the plan of 'de-dramatising' the backstop (eg letting the EU have their way but trying to spin it) then they will vote the Government out of office before she even gets the chance to have a vote. The DUP will accept no backstop or an all-UK backstop; the latter will be unacceptable to the ERG. Looks like May made a disastrous mistake in December and there is no way out.
When you look at the story there's nothing new. This is just a repeat of the de-dramatisation of the backstop that Barnier has been pursuing for weeks.
Nothing of the sort.
The EU wanted NI to be subject to the CU and SM rules. You can't 'de-dramatise' that - either NI is part of the UK or it is not. The DUP will never vote for a system where NI follows different rules.
So either May will concede that NI will be subject to the EU regulations, in which case it will get voted down, OR the EU concede that the ERG were right all along and that NI can be subject to UK regulations, in which case (as I have been saying for some time) the EU are preparing to ditch Chequers and push the UK towards CETA.
If the EU are now agreeing that a technological solution IS possible, then that is not a boost for May, it is a huge boost for the ERG.
You do talk some rubbish
If the EU concede to TM on this it will be seen as a big win for her.
As a matter of interest why do you care. It is not as if you have any stake in our Country
It looks like the only Brexit outcome most voters would be happy with is a FTA Deal and that an outcome with No Deal would be the most unpopular of all
But what would most people likely to vote Tory be happy with - which is surely Mrs May's and Tory MPs calculation.
At the moment the Tories still have a poll lead in many polls as BigG has stated, despite Chequers
The fact that the Tories are ahead surely makes it MORE likely that the rebels will feel free to vote down May's deal. If it is clear that people are not going to vote in Corbyn anyway, why wouldn't they vote it down?
On the paper review tonight it was suggested that labour will abstain on the deal vote but Lisa Nandy has already said she would support it
Labour will decide based on the reaction to May's deal (if she gets one). My prediction is that the spin will hold up for a few days and then collapse as the public focus on it - just like with Chequers. At which point Labour will be free to vote against. Yes, some Labour people will break ranks but there are plenty of ERG people.
The real issue is whether the DUP will no-confidence the Government. If she is following the plan of 'de-dramatising' the backstop (eg letting the EU have their way but trying to spin it) then they will vote the Government out of office before she even gets the chance to have a vote. The DUP will accept no backstop or an all-UK backstop; the latter will be unacceptable to the ERG. Looks like May made a disastrous mistake in December and there is no way out.
May's original idea was that Chequers solved the NI problem so if the EU agreed Chequers there would be no need for a backstop - problem solved.
As you correctly say, the EU will not accept Chequers and keep talking about the backstop. So May has achieved nothing. I can't see any sign that even if the EU accept a sort-of-Chequers-deal that they won't want the backstop. Which is why there is still no progress....
I didn't say that. On the contrary, I think the most likely outcome is that the EU will accept something broadly based on Chequers, but probably with a different administrative arrangement for customs.
It is true that the EU have made such a fuss about the backstop that it will be hard for them to ditch it. I therefore expect it to be fudged out of existence.
The moment the backstop is fudged, there is no need for Chequers. We can just have CETA.
In any event, 'a different administrative arrangement for customs' is a nice phrase but what does that mean? As Raab says, you can't fudge this. The customs partnership was the only way May can pretend to have an independent trade policy. They have rejected it. If the UK is in a CU, there is no trade policy and the cabinet Leavers will resign. If you can see a way through I am all ears, but the options are mutually exclusive.
There will be a whole half-hour of Theresa May on primetime BBC1 tomorrow evening.
Just after Stuart is awaken from his coma on Eastenders and announces that the Brexiteer Mick Carter shot him. What an exciting hour it will be on BBC1!
There will be a whole half-hour of Theresa May on primetime BBC1 tomorrow evening.
Just after Stuart is awaken from his coma on Eastenders and announces that the Brexiteer Mick Carter shot him. What an exciting hour it will be on BBC1!
When was the last time May did a live studio interview?
If the EU are now agreeing that a technological solution IS possible, then that is not a boost for May, it is a huge boost for the ERG.
The EU aren't agreeing that a technological solution is possible. The journalist has just got the wrong end of the stick, as he has done frequently throughout the negotiations.
I can't see the whole article but I think you are right. Most of the 'positive sounds' I have seen reported recently have no suggestion whatsoever of what might be actually done to break the deadlock. They are just spin.
De-dramatising the NI backstop is a total waste of time. It is a matter of legal reality whether NI is in the EU CU/SM or not. You can't pretend. The DUP will not accept a different set of rules in NI whether they have been de-dramatised or not.
There will be a whole half-hour of Theresa May on primetime BBC1 tomorrow evening.
Just after Stuart is awaken from his coma on Eastenders and announces that the Brexiteer Mick Carter shot him. What an exciting hour it will be on BBC1!
When was the last time May did a live studio interview?
It's not live is it. I thought it has been pre-recorded
There will be a whole half-hour of Theresa May on primetime BBC1 tomorrow evening.
Just after Stuart is awaken from his coma on Eastenders and announces that the Brexiteer Mick Carter shot him. What an exciting hour it will be on BBC1!
When was the last time May did a live studio interview?
It's not live is it. I thought it has been pre-recorded
Exactly. She hasn't done for a very long time. Not sure when the last one was, but it was months and months ago I reckon.
@BrunoBrussels I don't understand this. Surely what EU is proposing here is a (largely) frictionless border in the Irish Sea and no border in Ireland - not the other way around as article implies..? 1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes New conversation
No goods shipped from NI have to originate from a trusted trader and are bar coded as such. Any non-coded containers would be banned/siezed in Eire. So anything from the UK would also have to be barcoded at the factory gate.
There will be a whole half-hour of Theresa May on primetime BBC1 tomorrow evening.
Just after Stuart is awaken from his coma on Eastenders and announces that the Brexiteer Mick Carter shot him. What an exciting hour it will be on BBC1!
When was the last time May did a live studio interview?
It's not live is it. I thought it has been pre-recorded
Comments
(Strangely, 'Frank' really is my middle name.)
A bit like Bill Clinton having Monica Lewinsky going down on him and people dying in Afghanistan, Sudan, and Iraq.
as Theresa may say...
Would someone pass me the mind bleach please?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/09/16/infamy-infamy-theyve-all-got-in-for-may/
Sorry to Sullivan the thread...
Ingenious rather than perplexing
And you Gilbert-ed rather than Sullivan-ed!!
Should I do Penzance for the second part?
https://www.gsarchive.net/pirates/web_op/pirates18.html
(I have done the show three times - chorus, Frederic and Major General)
https://twitter.com/millarmind/status/1041403996815208450
"Until quite recently I went through a spell of regular church attendance at my local C of E. It is always pleasant to be the youngest person in any gathering, no matter how small."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/blessed-be-the-virtue-signallers-for-they-will-bring-the-church-of-england-to-its-last-judgment-sbkbf9ql2
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
I hope you didn't mind me contacting her.
Best wishes
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/16/heading-car-crash-brexit-theresa-mays-chequers-plan/
I'm sure Mrs May will appreciate them
Please thank your daughter for stepping up to the plate - I hope she finds it a rewarding experience.
It is another example of how special this forum is and how much good it can do as we learn from one another
Mind you I suppose not everyone wants to learn from each other
Republican responses have been... less than ideal.
When I was a teenager, I thought I was 'depressed'. Then I went to university and met a wider circle of people, including an anorexic who became a dear friend, and another chap who did suffer from depression, and I realised all I had ever suffered from was the usual teenage angst cr@p; my low feelings were nowhere near as all-consuming as that poor chap.
I have low moments (who doesn't?), but I have never, thank God, suffered from depression. My heart goes out to those who do, for it can be just as debilitating as (say) a lost limb, yet is nowhere near as visible.
As I said, all the best.
Quite similar to the Amazon AGM, by the look of it.
I think you would find that Bill's point of view is probably more widespread than you think once you leave London and the major cities. The numbers tell the increasing percentage of Conservative voters who come from C2DE backgrounds and outside the major cities. But these are, in many cases, fairly recent converts. If May is seen to be backtracking on Brexit, there is no instinctive reflex to vote Conservative.
Nor would Corbyn be the disaster on a personal level for many of these people. He would be for you (and me) economically and personally, as I would imagine a lot of things such as high end restaurants, shops etc would fall off a cliff if he got in. But if you are a pensioner living in the country,he wouldn't (at first) and his promises on things such as bus services probably resonate.
Don't be so arrogant to write off a chunk of the base. The Conservatives need their votes.
(1) On the generic Congressional vote, a few people here commented on Quinnipac having a 14pc Democratic lead but keep in mind the spread on their lead has been vast in the polls. The range goes from +3 (Economist) to this +14% in the latest polls. So Quinnipac is not typical.
(2) The Senate polls have become more favourable for the GOP in the past week or so. The latest ones have them +4 in North Dakota, +2 in Indiana (where the polls had the Dems with a comfortable lead), in the lead again in Tennessee. Florida and Missouri are essentially tied. Arizona the same (the two most recent polls have one for the GOP, one for the Dems in the lead). Nevada, which should be the most obvious gain, is still showing only a +1 Dem lead. The concern for the Democrats should be that, if Indiana and North Dakota are seeing the GOP moving away, then it could mean Trump voters are now moving more decisively back to the GOP candidates, which would put Montana and West Virginia is play. But these
(3) The recent individual seat polls on the RCP toss-up seats in the House are not pointing to anything like a Blue Wave. CA-48, which should be a fairly safe Dem gain, is neck and neck. The GOP has a +8 lead in CA50, +6 in WI-1, +5 in ME2, +4 in VA-7, +16 in IA3, +8 in TX23, +8% in WV3, all counted as toss-ups. The Dems are ahead in some GOP seats but, even there, their leads tend to be slender (+1 in NC2, KS2, +2 in NY22, +2 in PA-7 which is counted as "Lean Dem"). That may change but, if you were a Democrat looking at some of those numbers, and with 2 months to go, you might be worried.
One for TSE, to be filed under be-careful-what-you-wish-for:
"TransPennine £2.9bn rail upgrade will cause 'major disruption'"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-45509972
(only kidding!)
I simply care far more that we do not exit on a no deal /wto basis than keeping some very ukip supporters happy and it is not something I can do or control. I do believe if TM comes back with a deal agreed with the EU it is likely to pass the HOC, as the options of no deal/second referendum would cause a far bigger divide than we have now
Why don't you just calm down and see what the actual deal agrees, you may well be surprised
2) Is the Leeds to Manchester route, doesn't impact me.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
In the Senate the GOP are ahead 47 to 44 for the Democrats with 9 tossups and 52 to 48 for the Democrats with no tossups
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
Boris resigned when May basically agreed to accept the NI backstop as part of Chequers. So I am afraid that your accusation is inaccurate. I would have preferred that he resigned earlier but clearly May was telling lies to all sides about what she intended to so. She still is.
Gove has no credibility - he is lying to save his own cabinet skin. In particular, if May agrees the backstop then Brexit cannot be changed later - the backstop treaty agreement is designed to be permanent.
North Dakota, Montana and West Virginia were all extremely safe Republican states at the General, and it really shouldn't be a surprise if some of them were to flip back to the Republicans.
The House is a harder call. I find the 538 analysis persuasive, which is that the Dems currently look the favourites. (And I'm also sceptical, post 2016, of the accuracy of low level polling. Getting the national picture right is probably the most important thing.)
With all that said, I think that the last thing Trump needs is for the Republicans to hold on to the House and the Senate. I think that would inevitably end in the repeal of Obamacare. And that would be a disaster for Trump and the Republicans. Like Clinton in '94, losing the House would be a blessing for the President.
In the absence of that news, nothing is agreed, including the backstop. And if something like Chequers is eventually agreed there's no need for a backstop. So nothing has changed. Boris is being silly (or, more likely, unprincipled).
[FWIW As I've said many times I actually agree with you that the backstop should have been firmly rejected all along. It's a complete nonsense, the only effect of which is to provide a completely artificial obstacle to what actually needs to be done, which is negotiate the frontstop, not the backstop. But I'm certainly not going to give Boris credit for his weaselly behaviour.]
https://www.lawfareblog.com/watergate-road-map-and-coming-mueller-report
The three of us filed a petition on Thursday to the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that seeks to rectify this problem. Represented by attorneys at Protect Democracy, we asked the court to unseal the Road Map. We did so because the document is of significant historical interest and significant contemporary interest. As we will explain in this post, which is drawn from declarations that we and others filed in the matter, the Road Map is one of the few significant pieces of Watergate history that remains unavailable to the public. The document is also keenly relevant to current discussions of how Mueller should proceed. It is possible that it is even relevant to discussions taking place within the Mueller investigation itself....
The EU wanted NI to be subject to the CU and SM rules. You can't 'de-dramatise' that - either NI is part of the UK or it is not. The DUP will never vote for a system where NI follows different rules.
So either May will concede that NI will be subject to the EU regulations, in which case it will get voted down, OR the EU concede that the ERG were right all along and that NI can be subject to UK regulations, in which case (as I have been saying for some time) the EU are preparing to ditch Chequers and push the UK towards CETA.
If the EU are now agreeing that a technological solution IS possible, then that is not a boost for May, it is a huge boost for the ERG.
Most of them are happy with this news.
In the grand scheme of things five years is short.
As you correctly say, the EU will not accept Chequers and keep talking about the backstop. So May has achieved nothing. I can't see any sign that even if the EU accept a sort-of-Chequers-deal that they won't want the backstop. Which is why there is still no progress.
But yes, all the Leavers should have resigned way before now. It is just unfair to pick on Boris who at least has resigned unlike the snake Gove.
https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1041401682058530816
It is true that the EU have made such a fuss about the backstop that it will be hard for them to ditch it. I therefore expect it to be fudged out of existence.
The real issue is whether the DUP will no-confidence the Government. If she is following the plan of 'de-dramatising' the backstop (eg letting the EU have their way but trying to spin it) then they will vote the Government out of office before she even gets the chance to have a vote. The DUP will accept no backstop or an all-UK backstop; the latter will be unacceptable to the ERG. Looks like May made a disastrous mistake in December and there is no way out.
If the EU concede to TM on this it will be seen as a big win for her.
As a matter of interest why do you care. It is not as if you have any stake in our Country
In any event, 'a different administrative arrangement for customs' is a nice phrase but what does that mean? As Raab says, you can't fudge this. The customs partnership was the only way May can pretend to have an independent trade policy. They have rejected it. If the UK is in a CU, there is no trade policy and the cabinet Leavers will resign. If you can see a way through I am all ears, but the options are mutually exclusive.
De-dramatising the NI backstop is a total waste of time. It is a matter of legal reality whether NI is in the EU CU/SM or not. You can't pretend. The DUP will not accept a different set of rules in NI whether they have been de-dramatised or not.
Are the broadcasters colluding in this?
@jdportes
10m10 minutes ago
Replying to @AllieHBNews
@BrunoBrussels I don't understand this. Surely what EU is proposing here is a (largely) frictionless border in the Irish Sea and no border in Ireland - not the other way around as article implies..?
1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
New conversation
Hilton Holloway
@hiltonholloway
2m2 minutes ago
No goods shipped from NI have to originate from a trusted trader and are bar coded as such. Any non-coded containers would be banned/siezed in Eire. So anything from the UK would also have to be barcoded at the factory gate.
A very pleasant evenings rest to everyone
Good night folks