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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Twisting on 17: the hardline Leavers’ great gamble
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I’ve always favoured a practical compromise.
Still the leftie loonies will gobble that line up.
The ERG aren't going to vote for whatever she comes out with anyway.
Fascist fight clubs: how white nationalists use MMA as a recruiting tool
Far-right groups across Europe and North America are using mixed martial arts to swell their numbers, spread their ideology and fight their enemies
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/sep/11/far-right-fight-clubs-mma-white-nationalists
As there will have to be concessions, as the EU has rejected the deal, then you are probably still right.
The voters knew that no deal was a possibility, in fact Mrs May encouraged them afterwards with the ‘No Deal is better than a bad deal’ mantra.
https://twitter.com/jimmfelton/status/1039478934105202688?s=21
Of the 70% graduates who went to a non-elite university, 28% were doing shift work, 3% were on a zero-hour contract and 17% were underemployed. Among those without a degree, meanwhile, 19% were doing shift work, 2% were on a zero-hour contract and 30% were underemployed.
“Graduating from non-Russell Group university increases the probability of insecure employment, such as shift work or zero-hours contracts, compared to those without a degree,” said Holcekova.
I don't recall him saying "in the eyes of God" or something similar.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/02/04/tory-mp-rees-mogg-i-take-my-whip-from-the-roman-catholic-church/amp/
It all really comes down to Labour, they are lead by a de-facto but undeclared hard brexiter, a socialist JRM. Will the bulk of the parliamentary party follow Corbyn over the cliff ? If so, no deal.
Jezza and co believe in the Magic Money Tree.
ERG believe in unicorns.
There was a hundred year war over smaller religious differences.
(1) Remain had all then advantages during the referendum. The government, TV, especially the BBC (with the exception of the three week purdah period), and the money that was spent.
(2) The lack of preparation and plan was down to one man. David Cameron. He prevented the civil service working on alternative plans - something they would automatically have done. Yet somehow it's all Brexit's fault. I had no ready-made plan in my pocket, and neither had Labour,for exactly the same reason. We're not in charge of the civil service. This isn't rocket science, but why hasn't Cameron been widely castigated for this cock-up?
(3) After a binary referendum, the idea of appealing to the Remainers by accepting many of their policies is akin to Labour winning a GE and taking on much of the Tory manifesto. Why?
(4) The country is split. Another referendum, and possibly another after that until we get the 'right' answer won't solve that.
There's no plan from the ERG because there are too many contradictions for such a plan to be possible. There's no possible plan that has a majority in the HoC. In the end the electorate will have to choose between a few of the possibilities, which will need to be spelt out clearly, in a People's Vote or a General Election.
Even if May ultimately wins, could the VoNC pressure her into changing Chequers for a Canada type deal?
He asked for prep to be done but the civil service couldn’t reconcile the contradictions in the Leave campaigns.
Such as we’re leaving the single market but no one is threatening our place in the single market.
Personally I couldn't care less about marriage. But abortion is different. And whilst I think it's probably better for it to be legal, I do understand those like JRM who oppose it. The point being that whilst JRM's views on marriage may come directly from being a Christian, views on abortion and adultery may not.
Still it keeps the hacks excited.
Verhofstadt applauds
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/20/david-cameron-accused-gross-negligence-brexit-contingency-plans
It was the same with the Sindy referendum also.
In fact I think Cameron even said it himself here (paywall)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cameron-we-have-no-brexit-plan-htt5nt0w6l2
On the ERG reports this morning seem to indicate they are falling out with each other and there is little prospect of an attempt to VNOC TM.
My position is clear. I want TM to get a deal and for it to pass as it would be Brexit. Once out our politicians can then finesse the relationship with the EU as a work in progress.
However, if TM deal fails I want Parliament to use their large majority to stop WTO in its tracks and I do believe they have the numbers, and with the pro EU majority in the HOL, should be able to get through emergency legislation very quickly
Last night the hard Brexiteers made it clear they are happy to sacrifice UK manufacturing (including my families employment) and also the union with Scotland and Northern Ireland on the altar of their obsession.
The good news is that it will be stopped, one way or another
2) As I've argued in the past, *any* alternative plan would be dismissed by the leavers: and they would need to do so, as collapsing the probability waveforms of what 'Brexit' means would reduce their vote. If leavers can't decide what it means two years after the vote, how could a government impose one - we'd just have got the mess we're in now, with the ERG'ers arguing against it - or the other side arguing against it. These arguments would have helped leave - e.g. "Look, they want a soft Brexit, and those smelly people will still be stealing your jobs!"
3) The question was binary, but the laziness of leavers before the referendum (a planned one, as it happens) meant that what the result means is uncertain. That is the responsibility of the lazy leavers who have wasted two years.
4) I'm uncertain about another referendum, but if we end up in a stalemate then it's hard to see another way out of it. God knows what the question should be.
Personally, I'm veering towards Chequers. It seems the only sane plan on the table.
They began planning but could reconcile the unbelievable promises of Leave and Yes.
For example Yes said the Bank of England would be an Independent Scotland’s lender of last resort and the FCA/PRA would supervise the Financial Services/Banking sectors, both would have been illegal.
Hint: leave wanted to win.
"Two is such bullshit."
A subjective view, but you clearly are not familiar with how the CS works. Why has no one asked Cameron the question? Because they know the answer. The default is not to be unprepared, it's to have alternatives.
Yes, it's now water under the bridge, except for Remainers who still seize upon it to bash Brexit.
Tell me how Dave was supposed to wargame that?
A referendum works when the government are proposing something specific and are asking for approval. It doesn’t work when the government support the status quo and allows something non-specific as an alternative.
The correct approach would have been to have the referendum as EU membership vs EEA membership, we could have debated the pros and cons of both organisations before the vote. Those in favour of WTO or similar would mostly have supported EEU as a loosening of the relationship on the way to the preferred destination.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/09/a-better-ole/
I considered extending the WW1 metaphor for this article by noting that Leavers, by abandoning Chequers, had found themselves trapped in no man's land, but remembered that Leavers get unnaturally excited by references to World Wars.
Civil Aviation Authorty vs Faisal Islam and Sky News.
https://order-order.com/2018/09/12/caa-shoots-misleading-sky-news-scaremongering-pilot-licenses/
How such an unattractive politician ever got to lead a serious political party is something students of politics will be scratching their heads over for decades.
The big challenge for him was given the years of negativity regarding EU for years from the Tory party and the headbanging press the only argument was the one that became labelled "Project Fear" (which I always thought was a bit rich coming from people who used fear of the foreigner as their trump card). It clearly didn't work well enough as "Project Fear of Foreigners" won enough people's emotions
It's the other camp of leavers who are causing the problems. These people should be nowhere near government or power as they're impractical ideologues IMO.
May I quote Peter Hennessy (Atlee Professor of Contemporary History) this week?
"The Cameron Cabinet had expressly forbidden Whitehall departments from preparing any contingency plans for a Brexit ahead of the 2016 referendum. We have been living with the consequences ever since."
Bullshit, was your erudite answer to it.
what makes me so angry right now, is the fundamentals of our economy are on good tracks, and we're throwing it all away for unicorns.
It might be helpful if all senior politicians were subject to an IQ and EQ test. After all, most important jobs require such testing, so why shouldn't it be so for anyone standing for the most important position in the land?
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1039802406626906113
They don't even have a plan for Tezza
Anyway, good to see the Remainers slapping each others backs in mutual congratulation on missing the point of the referendum. The real news today is the Junker is joining Barnier in trying to get it through Theresa May's thick head that the only thing that the EU want to offer is a Canada Plus FTA. Which is what the Leavers want. That must be a bit awkward.
Can we have a few more Remainers on here criticising Leavers for refusing to back the 'pragmatic compromise' of Chequers, despite the fact that the EU have completely ruled it out? Or maybe it is time to accept after all that the referendum was a binary question - fully in or fully out - and that you lost?
As an example, witness the confusion about Euratom.
No, it wasn't.
Did you vote in the referendum?
Yes, qualified majority voting and all that, but there really is no concrete evidence of a serious prospect of a super-state with sovereignty. The Eu will continue to be a supra-national organisation only. Sorry to shatter your enjoyment of your negative outlook.
Can you talk to people, raise an order on SAP and progress chase it through the system to delivery.
The hardest part of the job is finding out from site what the devil they actually want.
UK politicans hiding behind nonsense like influence and denying the facts dont convince.
Sadly my fellow Brits disagree.
Junker: “[We] ask the British government to understand that someone who leaves the Union cannot be in the same privileged position as a member state. If you leave the Union, you are of course no longer part of our single market, and certainly not only in the parts of it you choose,” said Juncker, referring to the U.K. proposal that it remain within the single market for goods but not services. "...We agree with the statement made in Chequers that the starting point for such a partnership should be a free-trade area between the United Kingdom and the European Union,” he said.