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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his c
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Ted Cruz is running ads like this then I’m concluding his campaign is in trouble
Ted Cruz is using doctored footage to make it look like Beto O'Rourke supports flag burning (he doesn't) pic.twitter.com/e7d04WK0Dp
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I think Texas and Florida could both flip this time around, which would be mildly amusing.
Emptiness is the place you're in
There's nothing to lose but no more to win
The sun ain't gonna shine anymore...
Other than his kids ?
Can’t see the GOP losing the Senate though, if they do then Trump will be a lame duck for two years.
And how does the party disassociate itself from him ?
If they hang on to the Senate, which I agree looks more likely than not, I just don’t see how that happens. If they get an utter shellacking in November then things might change, but for now, the Republicans are seen as, and are in every way, the party of Trump.
I think the Dems will pick up Nevada, which is moving ever Blue-er. I think they'll fall just short in Arizona and Tennessee. I think they'll hang on Florida, West Virginia, and Montana. I suspect they'll lose Missouri and North Dakota.
And they may well gain Texas, simply because Cruz is toxic.
Which probably leaves the Senate stuck at 51-49.
If the latter, isn’t that just the Democrats trying to pull off the trick of remaining a broad church ? It’s certainly true that there seems to have been a growing frustration about lack of representation on the left of the party, but radical does not necessarily mean crazy.
I’d be interested who you have in mind, as my knowledge is far from encyclopaedic.
In any event, the real crazies seem to be on the other side of the political divide.
Will the 2016 "shy Trump" voters rally to his cause again to protect a GOP congress and Donald's agenda? Against which is a more motivated Democrat base, mid term blues and a tendency for US voters, after a short period, to trim the sails of a party having control of all arms of the federal government.
The joker in the pack is of course the President himself. His wildly unpredictable and narcissistic actions will continue to dominate all through to election day. My sense is that the day after the election Donald will be having a fit of the vapours as the electorate sock him with a wet haddock round his ample chops.
It will be damned as a fake election by Trump and the whole ghastly roadshow will continue to shock, entertain, disgust and amuse us in equal measure. Dull it will not be.
Put a small sum on. A few F1 markets are up, but most not yet. Will check when the full set's up for potential early bets. The win market indicates the bookies reckon it'll be a three horse race.
Even if the GOP lose the House and Senate though Trump should not be completely written off, Bill Clinton saw the Democrats lose the House and Senate in 1994 and was re elected and both Eisenhower in 1954 and Truman in 1946 also saw their parties lose the House and Senate in their first midterms and were re elected.
As long as his base is behind him Trump also likely wins the primaries again
And Hillary.
I remain puzzled.
Some of us are eating!
Napoleon III - the best explanation I can give is that in 1831 he was locked up in Ham for treason. Most people would have seen this as a career-ending disgrace. He saw it as an excellent opportunity to get the teenage girl who did his laundry repeatedly pregnant.
And that was the quietest part of his sex life!
BTW, a really good article on the political impact of boredom with Brexit:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/11/remainers-voters-brexiters
I wouldn't say the odds are particularly attractive (O'Rourke is still behind in the polls) but it's also notable who has raised the most money.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/27938931/market?marketId=1.131974987
“But 60% of all voters still agree with the statement: “I no longer care how or when we leave the EU, I just want it over and done with.”
“ “I don’t think I’ve heard anything about Brexit since the vote itself,” one young voter declares in a focus group. The participants were selected for readiness to switch between leave and remain positions.“
IIRC Napoleon III just about managed to beat Mexico in a war
If it does rain, I might prefer a different tack, given the top three teams are seen as roughly equal. Something like Hulkenberg/Alonso to do well, or someone like Sirotkin to score points, Leclerc top 6, etc.
Probably go back and check the relative pace in Monaco, if I go down that route.
The Dem map is horrible and with a regular generic Rep president or Hillary in charge we'd be looking at huge Dem losses.
Day to day of course, you’re right that the two independents are Democrats for most purposes, if the Republicans come out with only 49 or 50 seats, Trump will be a lame duck for two years and unable to pass pretty much anything.
Ironically this situation could well backfire on the Democrats, as it will give the big man with the funny hair an excuse in 2020 as to why he needs another term to finish making America great again.
a reminder just how much Brexit bores the wider public
Even in the dry it’s always a very attritional race, will run very close to the two hour limit in hot and humid conditions - so there’s definitely some value in working out which of the back runners will score the points. Safety car is a dead cert, and I’m not expecting more than 15 finishers - no sign of those markets on the exchange yet though.
Must be mixing with his old union buddies.....
I think we've got it right with 3 A levels and single subject degrees*
*The one exception of course being PPE.
" Their good fortune was to find in David Cameron a malleable prime minister who could be pressed into calling a referendum on a question few voters had ever thought to ask themselves."
Which ignores the 12%/4m people who voted UKIP at the GE and who unambiguously wanted the UK to leave the EU, wanted a referendum to have the opportunity to express their wishes, and had been effectively disenfranchised prior to the referendum announcement.
Now of course this was otherwise also electoral planning by Dave but that is a whole slug of the electorate who were given a voice. As such, one can't argue with the decision to offer a referendum.
Tennis: umpires are reportedly considering refusing to officiate at Serena Williams' matches. Lack of support from the WTA is thought to be a prime cause.
Quite agree. Also feel a lot of sympathy for Naomi Osaka.
In any case, boredom with Brexit is unlikely to make it go away. Whether the public like it or not (newsflash: they don't), they're going to have to keep thinking about it for years to come. The months ahead are only going to intensify that.
Your answer was a non-answer, totally fact-free.
visceral hatreddislike of politicians is, as it always seems to be, clouding your judgement. 4m people voted UKIP, the most successful single issue pressure group evah. They expressly wanted the UK to leave the EU and it was entirely legitimate for a political leader to include their demands in any manifesto. Much better than Ed or Polly dismissing their concerns as those of the uninformed and misguided*.*of course they were and are uninformed and misguided but that doesn't mean they should be denied a political voice.
Does boredom with Brexit make a deal/no deal referendum more sensible for Theresa May?
If it's Remain versus Leave, that'll come across as insulting the electorate by implying they got it wrong last time and have another chance to get it right by agreeing with the political class.
multi nats have been closing UK facilities for years because were the cheapest place to sack workers - no social plan, few legal problems cheap redundancy. There are loads of examples.
The set up in the EU argument died on the accession of the Visegrad 4, suddenly we were no llonger the cheapest labour in town and the UK didnt have the social protections of mainland Europe. As a result it has been attrective for multinats to sell in the UK but move operations to lower cost countries or lower tax regimes.
UK workers have been watching their jobs go offshore for the last 20 years
Chequers has critics from both sides of the spectrum.
disappointment in the current crop- yes
4 million voted UKIP but not all of them voted reference Europe. For some it was simply a protest vote or a vote of disaffection following expenses, GFC, banking and other issues which made the Westminster bubble seem distant and out of touch. Daves term of office was spent on peripherals such as Leveson ( wheres that now ? ) or AV or pasty taxes. He didnt address issues which mattered to voters such as housing or infrastructure. Now maybe there was just no money so de facto he was pushed to window dressing but he wasnt very good at dressing windows and pissed off people needlessly. Telling Con supporters to sod off to UKIP and then complaining about the consequences when they did doesnt seem that clever to me.
People were/are pretty bored with austerity (as was also the case in the post-war years, of course). That hardly removed its salience as a political issue.
IMO what’s more likely is that the same question ends up being voted on in Parliament at the last possible moment, which sees it carried by a landslide as no-one wants to be responsible for the crash out.
@AlastairMeeks reckons the chances of a referendum or election before Brexit are as short as one in six, I think it’s a lot longer than that as too many things need to happen sequentially to bring about either scenario. He does have a good track record of getting these things right though, much better than I do.
Mr. B, bit of a shame. Surprised Raikkonen's hanging around, to be honest.
Also, Sauber will have a world champion driver. McLaren will not.
He told them to sod off and yet they still hang around, like a bad smell. Where I campaigned for the Cons at GE2017 (a constituency which went from being a Lab/Con marginal to a 12,000 Lab majority), a popular refrain from previous Cons voters was about the UKIP-isation of the party.
I, and I suspect many many others, would kill to get Dave back, right now. Who is your poster-boy/girl politician then? Like the ERG it's easy to criticise, but much more difficult to have an original thought.
https://tesco.com/wine/product/browse/default.aspx?N=8101+8132+4294967245
I know health and safety is all the rage nowadays, but I can't see why we need degrees in Personal Protective Equipment, or why so many politicians would feel the need for such a degree.
And when they do use such knowledge - e.g. Osborne wearing reflective jackets on building sites - they routinely get the piss taken out of them.
I don't know why they bother. I'd have thought a degree involving economics, politics and even philosophy would have stood them in better stead.
Aye, if I were seeking to reverse the decision last time, that'd be the option pairing I'd go for.
It'd have, er, dramatic consequences for the political scene, though.
Of course my senses by the time we got there might have been a bit numbed.
Huge for Leclerc though, he’s got the best opportunity since Hamilton a decade ago.
Contrast with Vandoorne, who got stuck at an uncompetitive McLaren with a car built around Alonso, and has gone in three short years from future world champion to begging for a drive with Williams.
They have 47 seats RCP consider safe with highly likely MS2. That gets to 48, which means Democrat Maj bets fall short (At least for Betfair exchange rules).
There are 9 toss ups according to the polling. Perhaps NOM is the best bet, but it is a narrow target - and if the GOP get spanked everywhere does something odd happen in MS2 or Nebraska ?
The Sauber share scheme seems tailor made to ensure Kimmie moved..
a point where we agree !
dispute rages over whether poached pears are good or not.
[Not like the common working man posts I make regarding the Second Punic War].