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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sweden sours? Will the far right make further inroads in Scandinavian social democracy?
For the last 100 years, the Social Democrats have dominated Swedish politics. They have been in government for all bar 22 of those years. It used its hegemonic status to establish a social democratic culture that worked with the country’s Lutheran ethos and with business, and for a long time managed to preside over a successful and distinctive blend of high taxation supporting a strong social safety net and a dynamic economy.
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It is vital for common sense and economic prosperity that the Moderates win (as I put a little on them at 61 yesterday, thanks to Mr. JS for the tip).
As an aside, do we know how accurate Swedish polls tend to be?
Stamps foot and exits in high dudgeon
Meanwhile here's one for Boris:
https://youtu.be/psDTiUV0PNI
It has always been obvious to Remainers that Leave is reheated 90s moonbattery.
He basically thinks a consensus could be formed around EEA-EFTA.
@AlastairMeeks is right to point out the rise of the leftist groups as a phenomenon masked by the rise of the far right. It does seem to be happening across the continent, and creating some difficult coalitions. The same trend here has been shoehorned into the two main parties by FPTP.
The reaction to the globalist tax dodging free marketeers and a mobilised world is not one of affection, no matter whether we buy their products or not. Retreat into pooteresque nationalism or millenialist socialism and choose your poison.
McDonnells economic plans may be rather more appealing than the ERG vision.
I expect I could be surprised, but I don't sense the SDs are on the cusp there, and the economy is doing quite well.
I still expect the SDs to do ok though. Sweden still isn't taking concerns about immigration seriously enough.
To be more serious I'd become an abstainer for the first time in my life were this man ever to lead the Conservatives. With all the madness on the left it really is time for people to start and see sense on the right.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
Redwoodism meets Corbynism.
No wonder a plan was never produced.
We need a vote on the Deal.
Boris says he instead wants a 'generous free trade deal' with the EU and a technological solution for the Irish border
Does anyone deny that May has botched the negotiations? 80%+ of the public think so.
(That Boris does not have his own plan is beside the point).
We need a vote on the Deal.
It is inexcusable but adds to a long catalogue of stupidity and has greatly angered his colleagues. He will not win the leadership.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1038698388789833728
I do not have a problem with a second referendum but first of all I want to see TM's deal. If it is a fair compromise we need to get on with it. However, if there is any move to a hard Brexit I will do everything I can to stop it including accepting the need for a second referendum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
No matter what the individual’s politics are.
Oh no, it doesn’t. But it does help those who love to turn up at meetings at 6 pm on a Thursday evening to vote on this, that or the other. McDonnell is selling - under the illusion of control and fair share of profits - a pig in a poke, something that will only benefit activists. Much like the Leavers’ plans.
So why is he still a member?
HTH.
People might give a different answer depending on whether the question is:-
- Do you want this deal or to leave the EU with no deal at all, including no transition deal?
- Do you want this deal or to Remain?
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1038704384824279040
Chuka WANTS to be a member of an institutionally racist party...
I do not back McDonnell's economic policy solutions, but he is at least trying to address the questions raised by the IPPR report chaired by Justin Welby earlier this week. These poll widespread support, across most of society, young and old, North and South, educated or not:
https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/unfair-and-in-need-of-reform
An interesting question: had the polls at any time over the last 27 months shown an earlier move to mild Bregret, or had the economy performed less well, would the 2nd referendum campaign have got moving much earlier?
Personally, I think so. It's an opportunistic move.
I note the comment at the end of an interesting piece about Sweden retreating into “ introspection”.
It may be a criticism but it seems to me that such criticisms tend to avoid noting that had there been a touch more introspection - or intelligent thought - before letting in very large numbers of Muslim migrants from war and terrorism torn Middle Eastern and North African countries about the challenges of integration, the clash between a society founded on a strong welfare state but also a strong Lutheran work ethic and a belief that people have rights to public goods by virtue of their status regardless of their contribution, then groups such as the Sweden Democrats would not now have such purchase on the voters. The established parties had a somewhat Panglossian belief in apparently unlimited immigration from very different cultures and ignored the strains this produced, all of which were predictable. You can ignore reality only for so long before it smacks you in the face.
Expectation and entitlement, chortle.
- Boo-ris in 2004, on being sacked from the Shadow Cabinet by Michael Howard after the Petronella Wyatt affair.
Also a bit of a hedge. If the Social Democrats do underperform, I'd expect much of their vote to go to parties like the Greens.
Hmm. May be time to hedge my second referendum bet.
Edited extra bit: think I've done that already, actually...
FWIW I think UKIP are far right too, but not as far as the Sweden Democrats: to be fair, they've always tried to exclude the neo-Nazis. Being nationalist and perhaps dubious about foreigners is one thing, wanting to murder them is something else. In these wild days we need to make distinctions between extremists.
That is a bit simple even for you.
He might be a lot of things , but not that.
Very few of today’s generation would want to go back to the economy of 50 years ago, whatever comparison might be made with the average age of first time buyers.
They assert a second referendum must, or will happen, because they really, really want it to happen. There's no evidence for it.
It's a fantasy, driven by the same coalition of EU flag wavers and luvvies who lost last time, and unpleasant characters like Alastair Campbell, who now think they've got a 2nd bite at the cherry and think if they make enough angry noise about it that will somehow be enough.
The world has changed.
Their view of their own moral worth blinds them to their own essential duplicity. It’s the same as allying with the racists of UKIP for a greater good.
It is only human to want to cherry pick the benefits of globalisation, but not its downsides of migration and economic dislocation.
They want revenge, and for Leavers to feel as awful and as angry as they have for the last two years.
It should be rightly dismissed for the ruse it is. It would make divisions in this country much worse, not better.
He is not a genuinely thoughtful man, IMO. And being cunning does not stop you also being an idiot ie of failing to understand what you are talking about, failing to think through the implications of what you propose, failing to learn from experience, failing to take advice from those with more real, expert knowledge than you.
The centrality of London in public life (be it politicians, business or, perhaps most importantly, media) directly affects public perceptions.
Edit: the age grouping is actively misleading. Perhaps the better time to consider is how long after leaving education. That doesn’t look to have seriously changed.
A year before though, I had quite a row with a furniture shop when my (quite new) wife went in to order something, and was told she couldn’t sign an HP agreement; Id have to go in and do it. Unfortunately this was the 60’s, shops still had half days and as a pharmacist mine was the same as the furniture shop.
We clearly need to do something about today’s housing market but nostalgia for the good old days of half a century ago is not the answer.
1) TMay (or whoever is PM) has to want to do it
2) The Tories (or whoever lead the government) have to let it happen without defenestrating their leader and replacing them with someone who doesn't want to do this
If you grant those I think the rest is all doable. The obvious sequencing is something like:
1) PM tells other EU countries she'd like to hold a re-referendum and requests an extension while it's done, and an assurance that the UK could resume membership if they vote Remain without joining the Euro or giving away Cornwall or whatever.
2) EU Council agrees to an extension, which freezes the EU Withdrawal Act, which has provisions to this effect IIUC
3) PM passes legislation with her majority, minus sundry Tory rebels, plus small parties and Labour Centrist-Dad anti-Corbyn extremists, to hold the referendum, including whatever changes are needed to the EU Withdrawal Act
4) Have the referendum, then leave the EU, or don't, depending on the result
Just 12% of first time buyers live in London
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-house-prices-first-time-buyers-london-average-deposit-mortgage-a8363736.html?amp
He is hoping to blackmail Corbyn into accepting a second referendum as his price to ignore the bad things going on.
Where has honesty and morality gone
Apparently a train carrying Chinese troops to the exercise was attacked by locals. The Chinese soldiers opened fire killing three attackers. This is from Chinese social media. Obviously not reported by State media.
He either takes some time to elucidate the foundations of "Borisism" (I know, horribe) or he gives up politics. The best thing he could do is support David Davis as interim Brexit-delivering PM and do some bloody work in the meantime. If he's as bright as he thinks he is, he'll come up with a personal manifesto that will deliver the MPs and members when Davis calls a leadership election to succeed him.
We have had enough of people wanting to be Prime Minister simply because they think they would be quite good at it....
What we are seeing inside these parties, however, is the same pressure towards fragmentation. So we have the anti-Semetism row in Labour along with an ongoing civil war between the Corbynites and the remainder of what used to be Labour. In the Tories we have a former FS accusing his own PM of putting a suicide vest on our constitution and the ERG not even able to agree with themselves about what particular fantasy they want to promote.
I think we have to wonder how long can the centre of these deeply divided parties hold? The chance of a real split on both sides of the aisle is far from insignificant and only the savage penalties of FPTP have prevented it happening already.
Why is this happening? My tentative theory is that modern media, the 24 hour news culture and the ability of the internet to bring together groups who agree about almost anything play a part. As people play to these groups they demonstrate their intolerance of others because that is what distinguishes them and all too often gives them a purpose. We need to find ways of giving what we agree on more attention than the silly rows and splits. It's not going to be easy.
So the market was rigged, uncompetitive, did not protect the interests of savers and favoured vested interests. OTOH it kept me employed. What we have now is vastly superior.
I also think he’s a great bet if we do get a leadership contest, I don’t see how Boris has more than a handful of MPs supporting him any more.