Miss Plato, I've never watched X-Factor, and never wanted to, but it's slightly unusual to have no idea whatsoever what it is. I've never watched The Only Way Is Essex either, but I'm aware of its existence.
Mr. Vale, quite so. Chinese families are typically excellent not only at integrating but also at academic performance. Hmm. I wonder if there's a correlation between the willingness of an immigrant demographic to integrate and academic achievement.
They appeared to be suggesting on the radio recently that the Queen might refuse to agree to the Royal Charter on Press Regulation that the Privy Council are said to be eventually about to settle on, due to it being too controversial.
Does anyone know on which occasion the British Monarch last used such discretionary powers that are still available to them?
Inequality? So the poor kids don't work at it cos somebody else has more money?
No, the OECD find a bigger driver is parental educational achievement, thats why you're better off being the son of an immigrant (who are on average more highly educated than Brits) than someone poorly educated in the seventies or eighties who is British. And that inequality is increasingly baked in.
And that inequality is increasingly baked in
Absolutely tim, and how did Labour bake the inequality in ?
Was it by entrenching immigation and pushing people down the ladder or was it by chopping off WWC soial mobility ? Or both ?
Labour - screwing working people since Tristam got his first silver spoon.
Tbh Nick I think you're making a lot of assumptions about my politics in that. My basic politics is ANYONE but Labour since they Fk everything up horrendously. My basic politics are to the right but probably closer to CDU\CSU where I can see the state enabling some things than US GOP. However where the state enables it has to be a competent, self critical servant in the old prussian style. I see no benefit in replacing state monopolies with private ones. What I would say is lefties confuse the security of payment with the provision of service. I would on health care prefer to combine the security of obligatory national health insurance with a selection of providers. Ultimately I think that will lead to better patient care.
So while I quite understand the mentality of those seeking a national provider ( like all people I have a spectrum of opinion in my family ) it's just I don't accept the option on offer is currently the best. My views are more pragmatist than ideological.
Fair enough. You're right that I was oversimplifying the pb spectrum. Nonetheless I think the distinction was useful in understanding how many people think. There are both potential gains and potential risks in opening up provision to multiple providers, and there are important differences between most Labour and many (most?) Tory voters in how people weight both, perhaps partly related to whether they feel they have a private sector fallback if the public sector is messed up.
I don't want to overemphasize the point and will leave it there.
Parent's aspirations are important and they are more likely to be aspirational if they have seen the benefit of education. It's not the wealth of the country, so throwing money at it won't always work. Giving money to someone who doesn't rate education or has a disordered lifestyle won't be effective.
Of course, it could be down to teaching methods ... no times tables or rote learning ,,, but that option can't be right, can it?
“a reasonably sensible policy with some likelihood of success.”
The views of Neville Hill and Steven Bryce, economists and investment analysts from Credit Suisse, who write regularly and authoriatively on the UK economy.
Opposition to the government’s help-to-buy scheme has been considerable. From the tone of the debate one may be led to think that the recent improvement in the UK economic data has been purely driven by the debt-addled UK consumer returning to the fountain of government-subsidised cheap money. A spigot that will be further loosened by new Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney.
That “narrative” may be something of a straw man, but its general thrust informs much market debate about the UK. And that’s important because the behaviour of the consumer could not be more different from that narrative. As it happens, the household sector is actually deleveraging fairly rapidly. And it has set a firm course for that to continue. In our view a more expansionary monetary policy would have the effect of either accelerating or mitigating the cyclical headwinds of that process, and not reverse it.
I was amused by the reaction to the literacy/numeracy report. Assuming 21st and 22nd out of 24 is not good, what are the reasons for this?
(1) British kids are thicker on average (2) Teaching methods are worse. (3) Motivation of kids/teachers are worse
I don't think it's (1), but we don't want to talk about (2) or )3). So we'll call it inequality. That makes sense, those Polish and Estonian kids are all posh fops.
I would add:
4) Motivation of parents is worse e.g. Tiger Mums in Asia. 5) A good education is not seen as critical by poor families as there is the benefits system to fall back on. Parents in poor countries are more likely to stress the importance of education as a route out of poverty.
Also, immigrants are by definition a biased sample - they're the people who have travelled 1000 miles in search of a better life. They are more likely than average Brits OR average Poles to be zealous types who urge their kids on.
As it is difficult to access Neville Hill's and Steven Bryce's most up to date reports and the discussion of their views on Help to Buy in FTalphaville, here is Digitallook's summary:
The UK housing market is not in a "bubble", Credit Suisse economists Neville Hill and Steven Bryce write today. That is not least because there isn't much of a "housing market" to speak of at present. So policy measures to stimulate housing demand don't seem completely wrong-headed, in their opinion.
The introduction of several policy schemes designed to improve access to and the price of mortgage finance - the Funding for Lending and the two Help to Buy schemes - has led many commentators to argue that they will drive the housing market to further unsustainable and unrealistic price levels and put financial stability at risk if or when prices correct back to fundamentals.
"We don't agree with those arguments. Although house prices may seem "high", there's little to suggest they are currently unsustainably or unrealistically so. It's not apparent that the Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes will lead to a sharp rise in prices from here," they go on to explain.
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
To support that argument they reference the fact that house prices have barely risen - outside of London - in recent years.
''We should send our kids to poland to be educated.''
Actually by the reports reasoning, Poland is far too wealthy.
We should actually send our kids to Somalia to be educated, because relative to the locals they would be quite well off, and so would achieve far better outcomes than they do in unequal Britain, where fabulously wealthy Tristram is being schooled.
There's the added attraction that by the reports reasoning everybody in Somalia should be doing fabulously well anyway, because there are virtually no wealthy people, and so inequality is non-existent.
The poorer the country, by the relative rule, the better, for our kids. Indeed, for all kids.
The Somalis probably wouldn't want us, however, because their kids would start to feel hard done by, and so their customary educational excellence would start to wane.
As somebody who could never have been a teacher, I have noticed a change since the 1950s. Once I started talking properly at about the age of seven, I went up a year and still did well. Y
Crucially, none of these people resigned, and those I have spoken to since yesterday are sounding relatively upbeat about their new jobs. I am told that Jim Murphy nearly did resign: he took an hour to make up his mind before agreeing to take on the international development beat.
Indecision is clearly contagious in the Labour party. Fish rot from the head down.
Oops. I never learned how to use a mouse properly, though.
The point I was trying to make is that I was never bullied despite doing very well at school (in a rather small pool), even though it was a rough council estate.
When my son went to school, in a less rough area, anyone who stood out academically was mocked. In that sort of atmosphere, it's easy to see why Eton beats the bog-standard comprehensive he went to.
As has been said before, it's down to poverty of ambition
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
Precisely. I have repeated the same point zillions of times (albeit several orders of magnitude fewer zillions than tim has claimed this is a 'bubble'). And, as any fule no, a housing market which has seized up so that transaction volumes are hugely down from normal levels is a disaster for large swathes of the economy.
"Euro MPs have voted to tighten tobacco regulations aimed at putting young people off smoking, but some measures do not go as far as originally planned.
They rejected a European Commission proposal to treat electronic cigarettes as medicinal products - a move that would have restricted sales.
They backed a ban on menthol cigarettes - but with a five-year delay. And slim cigarettes will not be banned."
Seems a sensible approach.
(I have real trouble finding what I thought was a UK ban on flavours other than menthol, i.e. strawberry etc. if anyone knows what it was.)
"Gas and electricity prices make up only 4.5pc of the Consumer Price Index.
To have a serious impact on living standards a government would have to do more than freeze energy costs. What next? Controlling the price of food? Before we know where we are we would be back to the 1970s, with the Government trying to control just about everything, including pay – and with dire results."
Mr. Flashman (deceased), indeed, I believe it was a handsome young morris dancer who raised the point about food price-freezing shortly after Red Ed unfurled his socialist fantasies at conference.
First they came for the menthol fags - and I said nothing.
Then they came for the Malboro lights.....
Undoubted so, TGOHF. After all, this is the latest in a line of UK and EU-wide measures to restrict the sale and distribution of tobacco including under-the counter and banning vending machines. I very much doubt it will be the last.
Dromey goes to shadow Police brief. Emma Reynolds replace him at Housing yesterday Shabano Mahmood (replaced by Byrne) moves to the shadow Treasury team Jonathan Ashworth goes to shadow cabinet office team under Dugher.
Completely off-topic but is there a more blatant narcissist in the public eye than Harry Redknapp? His autobiography is being serialised in the Daily Mail (aha, not so off-topic!) and it includes some epic re-tellings of history. Football365 has a detailed account here (they love Our 'Arry, oh yes sir) and a snippet is below:
'(Daniel Levy) was the first person to ring me up to wish me luck when I took over at QPR, and even on the night I left Tottenham, the car phone rang and it was Daniel,' continues Harry Redknapp in the Daily Mail.
'"Harry, let's keep in touch," he said. "I hope we can still be friends."
'I thought, "He's got some front. He's just sacked me and now he wants to be mates."
'But we have stayed in touch. I'm not one for grudges.'
That's right, Harry Redknapp is not a man to hold grudges. No siree. He just laughs it off. He would never launch into a bitter...
Oh, wait.
"I wouldn't trust the FA to show me a good manager if their lives depended on it. How would they know? What clubs have they ever run? Who do they speak to who really knows the game?" said Redknapp in Monday's excerpt of his book.
The three greatest contemporary actresses in my opinion are Meryl Streep Kate Blanchett and Glenda Jackson. How can someone with such rarified blood have allowed themself to turn into the charlatan that is Dan Hodges?
Drawing definite conclusions from data influenced by many factors is always fraught with difficulty. But if you can see a reason why A could influence B (an aetiology), it gives you more confidence.
I can see why teaching ability/methods could influence this outcome, I can see why parental/pupil motivation could influence the outcome, I can see why basic intelligence could influence the outcome. But how does inequality directly influence outcome?
You'd need a elaborate theory mind to link the two directly.
I prefer not to set William of Ockham spinning in his grave
I was horrified at this new shift system, and its not just nurse fatigue that is a problem for poor patient care. With the end of the old early/late 8 hour shifts you lose an utterly vital staff continuity of care on the wards.
On the NHS - it's true that Labour defend it as a institution and perhaps some people feel they are not thinking about the patients. A more charitable suggestion would be that they are defending it against those who want to undermine it so as to sell parts of it off for private profit.
There was an interesting article in the Spectator this week.
No idea if it is accurate or not, but it sounds plausible.
Argument was that part of the reason for poor patient care is nurse fatigue. However this is driven by the 12 hours shift system - which nurses actually prefer because it allows them to complete a "week's work" in 3 days. Proposition is that patients would be better off with a maximum 8 hour shift system.
F1: the rules are wrong if going for Hulkenberg is deemed a gamble because of his height (circa 6'1"). Good mood music from Lotus, though. I hope they go for him: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24446236
Sounds like the bigwigs cocked up their estimates of the new power units (engines plus KERS) for next season, which is why height (and thus weight) is such an issue.
The three greatest contemporary actresses in my opinion are Meryl Streep Kate Blanchett and Glenda Jackson. How can someone with such rarified blood have allowed themself to turn into the charlatan that is Dan Hodges?
Bravura display of scare mongering about every single energy policy risk except the only one which is both very likely and absolutely catastrophic from Jenny Jones on the Daily Politics.
Our old friend, the Visa Consumer Expenditure Index has come in for Sepember. No alarm bells and growth in spend continuing at a shade under that of August.
Here are the key findings:
• Month-on-month consumer spending increased by +1.5% in September, little-changed from the solid rate of growth recorded in August (+1.6%).
• Displaced consumer spending following the Olympics last year led to a reduction of year-on-year spending in September (-1.2%), following a slight increase in August (+0.8%).
• Quarterly spending figures signalled only a slight reduction in expenditure during September, (-0.1%), as strong expenditure growth in September and August largely offset a weak July.
The Visa headlines are more upbeat than those of the British Retail Consortium who reported a 0.7% year on year rise in their almost simulaneously published figures, but this is almost certainly due to it being distortions caused by the Olympics in the comparator month last year. Still the Visa Index has occasionally been at odds with the ONS figures, as we saw with July this year, but differences tend to even out in the following months.
Overall the message is the economy continues to show signs of strong growth going into the final quarter of 2013.
Peter Cranie @PeterCranie 40m Disappointing adult literacy OECD report relative to our neighbours. School start age in Netherlands 6, Finland 7 but higher adult scores
Starting school later and literacy linked? Who knows?
Given it's well established that children who are older in their school year perform better this perhaps should not be a surprise, although it's difficult to believe there is an absolute disadvantage to extra education being added to younger years vs not bothering at all. I've always assumed that slightly older children out-perform because they're more likely to get ahead initially and subsequent interest and motivation can be driven by peer group ranking.
Peter Cranie @PeterCranie 40m Disappointing adult literacy OECD report relative to our neighbours. School start age in Netherlands 6, Finland 7 but higher adult scores
Starting school later and literacy linked? Who knows?
There does seem to have been a rise in debt over the summer
"The latest figures from the British Bankers' Association (BBA) have revealed an increase in several areas of borrowing, including a 0.3% rise in unsecured debt in the first eight months of 2013.
Further figures from the BBA data revealed that credit card borrowing grew by a figure of 6.7% across the year, surpassing increases in personal loans and overdraft borrowing (up by 5.1%).
When these figures were broken down credit card spending was found to make up a large share of unsecured borrowing growth in August, with consumers putting a staggering £8.4 billion of purchases on their credit card during the month.
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
Precisely. I have repeated the same point zillions of times (albeit several orders of magnitude fewer zillions than tim has claimed this is a 'bubble'). And, as any fule no, a housing market which has seized up so that transaction volumes are hugely down from normal levels is a disaster for large swathes of the economy.
I'm not disagreeing. the difference between us is that you are supporting the govt stoking up demand before supply is increased, I'm saying it should have done it the other way round.
Yup, it's like feeding a horse - increase the work before you increase the feed.
There is also sleight of hand in saying "there can't be a bubble, look at transaction levels". Bubble surely only ans always means excessive prices, never excessive turnover (if there is such a thing).
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
Precisely. I have repeated the same point zillions of times (albeit several orders of magnitude fewer zillions than tim has claimed this is a 'bubble'). And, as any fule no, a housing market which has seized up so that transaction volumes are hugely down from normal levels is a disaster for large swathes of the economy.
I'm not disagreeing. the difference between us is that you are supporting the govt stoking up demand before supply is increased, I'm saying it should have done it the other way round.
Yup, it's like feeding a horse - increase the work before you increase the feed.
There is also sleight of hand in saying "there can't be a bubble, look at transaction levels". Bubble surely only ans always means excessive prices, never excessive turnover (if there is such a thing).
No one has convincing proved that we are in a bubble.
Peter Cranie @PeterCranie 40m Disappointing adult literacy OECD report relative to our neighbours. School start age in Netherlands 6, Finland 7 but higher adult scores
Starting school later and literacy linked? Who knows?
Evidently not our education experts.
And certainly not those pushing grammar schools or blaming immigration, otherwise Norn Irn would've raced ahead of the rest
oooh stinging riposte - not. Once again you drift off into things you have no experience of nor understanding. you can't even work out the consequences of your own party's policies.
Anyway since your on Norn Irn, I see Vernon's departure has been welcomed.
"Unfortunately the Labour Party has been happy to abandon the people of Northern Ireland and refuses to stand candidates in elections here. The outgoing Shadow Secretary of State, Vernon Coaker MP, was prepared to criticise a party which is prepared to engage in politics here, without successfully challenging his own leader to change his policy. I wish his successor, Ivan Lewis, more success in offering something tangible to politics in Northern Ireland, by giving voters a centre-left, pro-Union option on the ballot paper. We look forward to debating the issues and showing that the centre-right offers a brighter future for all of our people."
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
Precisely. I have repeated the same point zillions of times (albeit several orders of magnitude fewer zillions than tim has claimed this is a 'bubble'). And, as any fule no, a housing market which has seized up so that transaction volumes are hugely down from normal levels is a disaster for large swathes of the economy.
I'm not disagreeing. the difference between us is that you are supporting the govt stoking up demand before supply is increased, I'm saying it should have done it the other way round.
Yup, it's like feeding a horse - increase the work before you increase the feed.
There is also sleight of hand in saying "there can't be a bubble, look at transaction levels". Bubble surely only ans always means excessive prices, never excessive turnover (if there is such a thing).
Correct, and the Bubble Boys always want to ignore income/house price ratios, so they aren't taking into account falling incomes over the last few years when claiming "Oh it's OK house prices are still lower than crisis levels"
You ignored my request earlier to prove we are in a bubble.
Perhaps you can address it now?
Or not. Because you are speaking bollocks and you know it.
You ignored my request earlier to prove we are in a bubble.
Perhaps you can address it now?
Or not. Because you are speaking bollocks and you know it.
It's all about the population density. Big country and little country.
No, it's not.
US and UK property prices are driven to a great extent by the availability of land and its desirability for developed.
As an example, two places I know well are SoCal and St. Joe, Missouri. Would you believe that they have different prices, both in absolute terms and in terms of psf? And would you believe that they have different typical unit designs? And that all of these are different to London? Or even Liverpool?
Do you think it might be because they are different places? With different needs? And different supply and demand factors?
As regards housing, I was wondering the other day where the South East property market would be if Russia and China were still essentially closed soviet communist countries.
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
Precisely. I have repeated the same point zillions of times (albeit several orders of magnitude fewer zillions than tim has claimed this is a 'bubble'). And, as any fule no, a housing market which has seized up so that transaction volumes are hugely down from normal levels is a disaster for large swathes of the economy.
I'm not disagreeing. the difference between us is that you are supporting the govt stoking up demand before supply is increased, I'm saying it should have done it the other way round.
Yup, it's like feeding a horse - increase the work before you increase the feed.
There is also sleight of hand in saying "there can't be a bubble, look at transaction levels". Bubble surely only ans always means excessive prices, never excessive turnover (if there is such a thing).
Correct, and the Bubble Boys always want to ignore income/house price ratios, so they aren't taking into account falling incomes over the last few years when claiming "Oh it's OK house prices are still lower than crisis levels"
tim I apologise for jumping back on because you are getting a shellacking as it is for your bubbleomics but you have to understand that for true blue PB Tories it really really does stick in the craw to have a leftist complain about a (non-existent/mild/potential) house price bubble when their own govt presided, indeed devised through selective choice of inflation indicator to determine interest rates, the most destructive housing bubble in recent memory.
I know that there is no more fervent anti-smoker than an ex-smoker and you are right to fear a proper bubble but I think you should choose a different subject right now.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 3m International Monetary Fund upgrades UK growth forecast by more than any other major economy from 0.9% to 1.4% for this year
What chances Ed balls will be getting the 'Abbott' treatment as well?
As regards housing, I was wondering the other day where the South East property market would be if Russia and China were still essentially closed soviet communist countries.
today minus 5%? 10%? More?
Doubt much impact on SE.
P/SP London (W1, W8, parts of SW3) probably down 40% P London (W2, W14, SW5, SW7) probably down 20-25%
""For the first time in four years, annual growth in household borrowing on credit cards and personal loans has turned positive"
Real pay is falling and borrowing is rising.
Real income isnt though. A combination of tax thresholds and dramatically lower interest rates means that many people are better off and much more able to afford a mortgage.
The average outstanding mortgage is £100,000. The difference between a mortgage rate of 7% (my rate pre 2007) and 2.5% (my rate now) is on £100,000 about £250 a month, the changes in income tax mean any person in full time work will now be £70 a month better off purely as a result of income tax change, double that if there are two working in the family.
Looking at gross incomes hides these changes which impact on affordability.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
Not by itself, but it increases the risk by removing the equity buffer if house prices go down.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
Monaco, popular as ‘home of the super-rich’, tops the list as most expensive cities to buy in at $53,026 per square metre, with gross rental yields of 1.9 per cent at a monthly rent of $10,099 per square metre.
London follows with a buying price of $32,745 per square metre, and a gross rental yield of 2.09 per cent at a monthly rent of $6,856 per square metre.
When will London go into bubble territory then, when it overtakes Monaco and gets to Number One in the hit parade?
Bubble: an unsustainable rise in prices leading to a rapid deflation.
My view is that P/SP London has disconnected from the rest of the UK in terms of prices. This is driven by supply and demand: it appeals to a global buyer universe now compared to a local/national one. Prices are high, and out of reach of the vast majority of UK nationals. This is not a good thing. But it's not necessarily a bubble.
'Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon 27m UK house prices rising fastest for decade and market "gaining momentum" says RICS survey. In other news, help-to-buy 2 starts today..
Such a deeply unpopular policy with thousands of young people.
Here's the polling, see if you can understand it, it's a little complex
"The average house price currently stands at £170,733, despite the recent rally it is still down significantly from its boom-time peak of £199,612 in August 2007."
Of course tim was complaining all the time about house price inflation back then.... oh
The study shows that there are 8.5 million adults in England and Northern Ireland with the numeracy levels of a 10-year-old.
"This shocking report shows England has some of the least literate and numerate young adults in the developed world," said Skills Minister Matthew Hancock.
"These are Labour's children, educated under a Labour government and force-fed a diet of dumbing down and low expectations."
What he didn't add was that Labour achieved the remarkable feat of not only sending us down to 22nd for literacy and 21st for numeracy out of 24 countries, but also managing to do this whilst doubling expenditure per pupil. That really is an achievement, of sorts.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
Not by itself, but it increases the risk by removing the equity buffer if house prices go down.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
True, but you have to live in Bumpkinland.
Nice one Baj. But I have just about everything there is in London on my doorstep and lots of other things besides. Good schools, good theatres, lots of shops and restaurants and fantastic countryside about 200 yards from my front door. And no mortgage.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
True, but you have to live in Bumpkinland.
Nice one Baj. But I have just about everything there is in London on my doorstep and lots of other things besides. Good schools, good theatres, lots of shops and restaurants and fantastic countryside about 200 yards from my front door. And no mortgage.
I'm late to the Norman Baker thing but given that he's the only liberal at the Home Office, and bearing in mind what we now know about what the NSA have been getting up to in secret, most of which probably also applies to GCHQ, my main concern is that he's not paranoid enough.
Northern Crock, Bradford and Bungley all part of Labour's bubble.
I don't think I've forgotten that 95% secured, 30% unsecured loan - great stuff! Throw in their many deals with extended redemption penalties after a deal ended so then tied to ugly rates for a few years after = fine under Labour.
Taxi for Balls by the way? Credibility utterly in tatters, again.
"One of the reasons the left hate the EDL so much is that they genuinely are a working class organisation. Along with that comes with generally poor standards of literacy and less developed communication skills.
Are you inferring i in some way support the EDL? They're a bunch of nutjob hotheads. I dont dislike them because they are working class though. I dont pick at their lack of grammar, poor spelling and their inability to think through set of views in a coherent and disciplined matter.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
True, but you have to live in Bumpkinland.
Nice one Baj. But I have just about everything there is in London on my doorstep and lots of other things besides. Good schools, good theatres, lots of shops and restaurants and fantastic countryside about 200 yards from my front door. And no mortgage.
But you have to live in Ludlow...
LOL Charles, no that's Roger. He's trying to join the Ludlow Massive and hang out with young farmers.
""For the first time in four years, annual growth in household borrowing on credit cards and personal loans has turned positive"
Real pay is falling and borrowing is rising.
Real income isnt though. A combination of tax thresholds and dramatically lower interest rates means that many people are better off and much more able to afford a mortgage.
The average outstanding mortgage is £100,000. The difference between a mortgage rate of 7% (my rate pre 2007) and 2.5% (my rate now) is on £100,000 about £250 a month, the changes in income tax mean any person in full time work will now be £70 a month better off purely as a result of income tax change, double that if there are two working in the family.
Looking at gross incomes hides these changes which impact on affordability.
Taxes overall have risen, picking one is a nonsense
Picking 'one'? I'll pick another, Council Tax. Council tax and income tax are easily the biggest direct taxes paid.
"One of the reasons the left hate the EDL so much is that they genuinely are a working class organisation. Along with that comes with generally poor standards of literacy and less developed communication skills.
Are you inferring i in some way support the EDL? They're a bunch of nutjob hotheads. I dont dislike them because they are working class though. I dont pick at their lack of grammar, poor spelling and their inability to think through set of views in a coherent and disciplined matter.
I wonder if that chap who refused to serve him will apologise ?
''In your opinion why do you think the USA comes bottom of the tables but has 13 of the worlds top 20 universities.''
I don't know the US system well enough to comment.
If its anything like ours, its a society rich enough to pay a large number of people to create excuses for low achievement in the face of good facilities and funding.
What he didn't add was that Labour achieved the remarkable feat of not only sending us down to 22nd for literacy and 21st for numeracy out of 24 countries, but also managing to do this whilst doubling expenditure per pupil. That really is an achievement, of sorts.
It is amazing, and it deserves some very intense analysis to work out what happened.
In my personal opinion, part of the problem was the emphasis placed on school league tables determined by the number of students reaching 5 GCSEs at grade C or above. This encouraged schools to concentrate on those students who were close to getting 5 such GCSEs, at the expense of those doing better/worse.
It seems to me to repeat the mistake made in the Grammar School era in a slightly different way, when resources were concentrated on Grammar Schools, and those in secondary moderns were left to rot.
The Feminist Times has just withdrawn the first article in it's 'taboo corner' series after it was deemed offensive.
Does anybody actually read the financial times any more? it has an almost unbelievably disdainful attitude to the capitalism it reports on and depends on for its existence.
Does anybody actually read the financial times any more? it has an almost unbelievably disdainful attitude to the capitalism it reports on and depends on for its existence.
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
here in Bumpkinland, we live in big houses, we do no work and live off the fat of the land safe in the knowledge there's some idiot in the Smoke having to remortgage to pay his 70% tax rate. ;-)
True, but you have to live in Bumpkinland.
Nice one Baj. But I have just about everything there is in London on my doorstep and lots of other things besides. Good schools, good theatres, lots of shops and restaurants and fantastic countryside about 200 yards from my front door. And no mortgage.
But you have to live in Ludlow...
LOL Charles, no that's Roger. He's trying to join the Ludlow Massive and hang out with young farmers.
Fair enough - don't know that part of the country well. Have a family friend (dating a mate of my Dad's) who lives in a lovely house there, but no other real connections with the area
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 3m International Monetary Fund upgrades UK growth forecast by more than any other major economy from 0.9% to 1.4% for this year
What chances Ed balls will be getting the 'Abbott' treatment as well?
Comments
Mr. Vale, quite so. Chinese families are typically excellent not only at integrating but also at academic performance. Hmm. I wonder if there's a correlation between the willingness of an immigrant demographic to integrate and academic achievement.
Does anyone know on which occasion the British Monarch last used such discretionary powers that are still available to them?
Absolutely tim, and how did Labour bake the inequality in ?
Was it by entrenching immigation and pushing people down the ladder or was it by chopping off WWC soial mobility ? Or both ?
Labour - screwing working people since Tristam got his first silver spoon.
I don't want to overemphasize the point and will leave it there.
tim,
There are some areas of agreement here.
Parent's aspirations are important and they are more likely to be aspirational if they have seen the benefit of education. It's not the wealth of the country, so throwing money at it won't always work. Giving money to someone who doesn't rate education or has a disordered lifestyle won't be effective.
Of course, it could be down to teaching methods ... no times tables or rote learning ,,, but that option can't be right, can it?
The view of a financial journalist
Jim Pickard @PickardJE
Help to Buy could pose threat to Britain's financial stability - Treasury select committee. FT splash today http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/699ede44-2f70-11e3-8b7e-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=uk …
The view of investment bank economists
“a reasonably sensible policy with some likelihood of success.”
The views of Neville Hill and Steven Bryce, economists and investment analysts from Credit Suisse, who write regularly and authoriatively on the UK economy.
Opposition to the government’s help-to-buy scheme has been considerable. From the tone of the debate one may be led to think that the recent improvement in the UK economic data has been purely driven by the debt-addled UK consumer returning to the fountain of government-subsidised cheap money. A spigot that will be further loosened by new Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney.
That “narrative” may be something of a straw man, but its general thrust informs much market debate about the UK. And that’s important because the behaviour of the consumer could not be more different from that narrative. As it happens, the household sector is actually deleveraging fairly rapidly. And it has set a firm course for that to continue. In our view a more expansionary monetary policy would have the effect of either accelerating or mitigating the cyclical headwinds of that process, and not reverse it.
See here for an earlier full report: http://bit.ly/1cqGl4t
[to be continued ...]
[...continued]
As it is difficult to access Neville Hill's and Steven Bryce's most up to date reports and the discussion of their views on Help to Buy in FTalphaville, here is Digitallook's summary:
The UK housing market is not in a "bubble", Credit Suisse economists Neville Hill and Steven Bryce write today. That is not least because there isn't much of a "housing market" to speak of at present. So policy measures to stimulate housing demand don't seem completely wrong-headed, in their opinion.
The introduction of several policy schemes designed to improve access to and the price of mortgage finance - the Funding for Lending and the two Help to Buy schemes - has led many commentators to argue that they will drive the housing market to further unsustainable and unrealistic price levels and put financial stability at risk if or when prices correct back to fundamentals.
"We don't agree with those arguments. Although house prices may seem "high", there's little to suggest they are currently unsustainably or unrealistically so. It's not apparent that the Funding for Lending and Help to Buy schemes will lead to a sharp rise in prices from here," they go on to explain.
Rather, in Credit Suisse´s view the main problem with the housing market is that in recent years there hasn't been one to speak of. Activity in terms of transactions and new build is at levels consistent with a housing bust, not a boom. Policies that boost activity and transactional liquidity in such a depressed market could lead to increased housebuilding and a boost to GDP from construction.
To support that argument they reference the fact that house prices have barely risen - outside of London - in recent years.
Actually by the reports reasoning, Poland is far too wealthy.
We should actually send our kids to Somalia to be educated, because relative to the locals they would be quite well off, and so would achieve far better outcomes than they do in unequal Britain, where fabulously wealthy Tristram is being schooled.
There's the added attraction that by the reports reasoning everybody in Somalia should be doing fabulously well anyway, because there are virtually no wealthy people, and so inequality is non-existent.
The poorer the country, by the relative rule, the better, for our kids. Indeed, for all kids.
The Somalis probably wouldn't want us, however, because their kids would start to feel hard done by, and so their customary educational excellence would start to wane.
Indecision is clearly contagious in the Labour party. Fish rot from the head down.
Oops. I never learned how to use a mouse properly, though.
The point I was trying to make is that I was never bullied despite doing very well at school (in a rather small pool), even though it was a rough council estate.
When my son went to school, in a less rough area, anyone who stood out academically was mocked. In that sort of atmosphere, it's easy to see why Eton beats the bog-standard comprehensive he went to.
As has been said before, it's down to poverty of ambition
He looks like the child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
They rejected a European Commission proposal to treat electronic cigarettes as medicinal products - a move that would have restricted sales.
They backed a ban on menthol cigarettes - but with a five-year delay. And slim cigarettes will not be banned."
Seems a sensible approach.
(I have real trouble finding what I thought was a UK ban on flavours other than menthol, i.e. strawberry etc. if anyone knows what it was.)
lol - I love the EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/10359344/Roger-Bootle-Cutting-prices-to-raise-living-standards-is-just-a-waste-of-energy.html
"Gas and electricity prices make up only 4.5pc of the Consumer Price Index.
To have a serious impact on living standards a government would have to do more than freeze energy costs. What next? Controlling the price of food? Before we know where we are we would be back to the 1970s, with the Government trying to control just about everything, including pay – and with dire results."
Then they came for the Malboro lights.....
Will it be illegal to import menthol fags - or just to sell them.
Shabano Mahmood (replaced by Byrne) moves to the shadow Treasury team
Jonathan Ashworth goes to shadow cabinet office team under Dugher.
@WestFMNews: We can exclusively reveal Prestwick Airport is to be taken into public ownershi
Drawing definite conclusions from data influenced by many factors is always fraught with difficulty. But if you can see a reason why A could influence B (an aetiology), it gives you more confidence.
I can see why teaching ability/methods could influence this outcome, I can see why parental/pupil motivation could influence the outcome, I can see why basic intelligence could influence the outcome. But how does inequality directly influence outcome?
You'd need a elaborate theory mind to link the two directly.
I prefer not to set William of Ockham spinning in his grave
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/24446236
Sounds like the bigwigs cocked up their estimates of the new power units (engines plus KERS) for next season, which is why height (and thus weight) is such an issue.
You been on the Bolly early Wog ?
Bang on Party message, well done.
3 down..
Our old friend, the Visa Consumer Expenditure Index has come in for Sepember. No alarm bells and growth in spend continuing at a shade under that of August.
Here are the key findings:
• Month-on-month consumer spending increased by +1.5% in September, little-changed from the solid rate of growth recorded in August (+1.6%).
• Displaced consumer spending following the Olympics last year led to a reduction of year-on-year spending in September (-1.2%), following a slight increase in August (+0.8%).
• Quarterly spending figures signalled only a slight reduction in expenditure during September, (-0.1%), as strong expenditure growth in September and August largely offset a weak July.
And here is the headline table: The Visa headlines are more upbeat than those of the British Retail Consortium who reported a 0.7% year on year rise in their almost simulaneously published figures, but this is almost certainly due to it being distortions caused by the Olympics in the comparator month last year. Still the Visa Index has occasionally been at odds with the ONS figures, as we saw with July this year, but differences tend to even out in the following months.
Overall the message is the economy continues to show signs of strong growth going into the final quarter of 2013.
I bet Gove is quaking now.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/86119/labour_response_to_oecd_report_tristram_hunt.html
I bet Gove is quaking now.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/86119/labour_response_to_oecd_report_tristram_hunt.html
shakes head in disbelief.
I bet Gove is quaking now.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/86119/labour_response_to_oecd_report_tristram_hunt.html
Even the OECD says Ed is crap.
Tristram Hunt is also a four-letter word beginning with C.
Harry Phibbs @harryph 4h
These attacks on Norman Baker being a conspiracy theorist seem suspiciously well co-ordinated.
The debt figures you quoted are nominal. Nominal pay is rising faster than nominal unsecured debt.
There is also sleight of hand in saying "there can't be a bubble, look at transaction levels". Bubble surely only ans always means excessive prices, never excessive turnover (if there is such a thing).
'Wrong school, not a mate of Ed's = toast.'
Like so many good socialists she sent her son to a private school to avoid the plebs.
Indeed - presume it was Gove's praise which did for her too.
Rising prices doesn't necessarily mean that.
Anyway since your on Norn Irn, I see Vernon's departure has been welcomed.
"Unfortunately the Labour Party has been happy to abandon the people of Northern Ireland and refuses to stand candidates in elections here. The outgoing Shadow Secretary of State, Vernon Coaker MP, was prepared to criticise a party which is prepared to engage in politics here, without successfully challenging his own leader to change his policy. I wish his successor, Ivan Lewis, more success in offering something tangible to politics in Northern Ireland, by giving voters a centre-left, pro-Union option on the ballot paper. We look forward to debating the issues and showing that the centre-right offers a brighter future for all of our people."
Perhaps you can address it now?
Or not. Because you are speaking bollocks and you know it.
Rising house prices under Labour, equity release remortgages = boom
Rising house prices inside M25 under non-Labour = bubble
US and UK property prices are driven to a great extent by the availability of land and its desirability for developed.
As an example, two places I know well are SoCal and St. Joe, Missouri. Would you believe that they have different prices, both in absolute terms and in terms of psf? And would you believe that they have different typical unit designs? And that all of these are different to London? Or even Liverpool?
Do you think it might be because they are different places? With different needs? And different supply and demand factors?
today minus 5%? 10%? More?
I know that there is no more fervent anti-smoker than an ex-smoker and you are right to fear a proper bubble but I think you should choose a different subject right now.
@BBCHughPym: IMF upgrades UK 2013 growth forecast from 0.9% (July) to 1.4% - Treasury says biggest upgrade of leading economies
Is there something wrong with an equity release remortgage? It's pretty much the only way London owner-occupiers can raise money against their rising house price without moving to Bumpkinland.
Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak 3m
International Monetary Fund upgrades UK growth forecast by more than any other major economy from 0.9% to 1.4% for this year
What chances Ed balls will be getting the 'Abbott' treatment as well?
P/SP London (W1, W8, parts of SW3) probably down 40%
P London (W2, W14, SW5, SW7) probably down 20-25%
ballpark numbers
The average outstanding mortgage is £100,000. The difference between a mortgage rate of 7% (my rate pre 2007) and 2.5% (my rate now) is on £100,000 about £250 a month, the changes in income tax mean any person in full time work will now be £70 a month better off purely as a result of income tax change, double that if there are two working in the family.
Looking at gross incomes hides these changes which impact on affordability.
Bubble: an unsustainable rise in prices leading to a rapid deflation.
My view is that P/SP London has disconnected from the rest of the UK in terms of prices. This is driven by supply and demand: it appeals to a global buyer universe now compared to a local/national one. Prices are high, and out of reach of the vast majority of UK nationals. This is not a good thing. But it's not necessarily a bubble.
Maybe Ed's taking a leaf out of the UKIP book... just plain common sense
The study shows that there are 8.5 million adults in England and Northern Ireland with the numeracy levels of a 10-year-old.
"This shocking report shows England has some of the least literate and numerate young adults in the developed world," said Skills Minister Matthew Hancock.
"These are Labour's children, educated under a Labour government and force-fed a diet of dumbing down and low expectations."
What he didn't add was that Labour achieved the remarkable feat of not only sending us down to 22nd for literacy and 21st for numeracy out of 24 countries, but also managing to do this whilst doubling expenditure per pupil. That really is an achievement, of sorts.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-24433320
You don;t understand Richard. It's all down to levels of inequality....!!! LOL
Rising house prices under Labour, equity release remortgages = boom
Rising house prices inside M25 under non-Labour = bubble
You forgot the Northern Rock self certified 125% mortgages that Labour were so incredibly relaxed about.
I don't think I've forgotten that 95% secured, 30% unsecured loan - great stuff! Throw in their many deals with extended redemption penalties after a deal ended so then tied to ugly rates for a few years after = fine under Labour.
Taxi for Balls by the way? Credibility utterly in tatters, again.
I'll pick another, Council Tax. Council tax and income tax are easily the biggest direct taxes paid.
I don't know the US system well enough to comment.
If its anything like ours, its a society rich enough to pay a large number of people to create excuses for low achievement in the face of good facilities and funding.
In my personal opinion, part of the problem was the emphasis placed on school league tables determined by the number of students reaching 5 GCSEs at grade C or above. This encouraged schools to concentrate on those students who were close to getting 5 such GCSEs, at the expense of those doing better/worse.
It seems to me to repeat the mistake made in the Grammar School era in a slightly different way, when resources were concentrated on Grammar Schools, and those in secondary moderns were left to rot.
Does anybody actually read the financial times any more? it has an almost unbelievably disdainful attitude to the capitalism it reports on and depends on for its existence.
I have never seen so much jubilation expressed on my TL as on the occasion of Diane #Abbott being sacked in #Labour #reshuffle