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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cabinet next exit betting – a nice little earner for the bookies
Next cabinet exit betting
The bookies clean up yet again
Here are Ladbrokes prices from June 17th
Michael Moore 25/1 pic.twitter.com/nRpxtqnlBe
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That was just a silly price and I rushed for my log in details the second I saw it. Frankly, I would have had a couple of thousand quid on it if they'd let me.
The market was only put up just before polling day. The SNP held the seat on a vote percentage of 42%, and were never likely to get near 50% let alone Hills' daft 55.5%.
I hadn't bet on the main Winner market cos none of the prices looked like value. IIRC the SNP price was extremely short.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_Donside_by-election,_2013
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100240190/well-done-tristram-hunt-chalk-one-up-for-the-hons/
Not surprised Twigg has gone in the least, I'd forgotten what his job was.
Has the BBC mentioned anything about Labour,s 'lurch to the left' or does that only happen to R/W parties?
Labour lead on NHS falls to 9% (from 12%) but rises to 5% (from 3%) on education. All MoE stuff though.
This does seem to be a market where the "lay the favourite" rule of thumb applies (or if that's not directly possible, look outside of the three or four favourites).
etc. ad nauseam.
OBN for her on EdM's wisdom and blah blah - this made me laugh
"Tristram Hunt, a television historian and MP for Stoke Central, is a moderniser and a smart choice as Shadow Education Secretary. Erudite and entertaining, he will give Michael Gove a run for his money " He'll be murdered by Gove at Education Questions.
Anyone else's are fair game for toff and posh demonisation.
Did Tristam lend his top hat to the crew at Crewe ?
Why not make to-day, 'I'm not going to be a Tuesday plonker'? Can you do that? Just for me?
It's like you think that putting on a red rosette grants someone some omniscient knowledge of the travails of the poor.
Your 'fop' attack was always ludicrous. Now it is even more so.
But the Indy and the New York Times did:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/obituaries/obituary-marjory-stoneman-douglas-1157310.html
http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/15/us/marjory-douglas-champion-of-everglades-dies-at-108.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm
'Update: Labour lead at 4 - Latest YouGov/The Sun results 7th October - Con 35%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 10%; APP -19'
Red Ed's post conference surge?.
Certainly.
You hate it. It gnaws at your being. Good.
Certainly better than someone who thinks that a man crying at a funeral would 'set the media narrative'.
Ed and Ed making Osborne look good since 2008.
As for the energy, again, I've tried to explain the problems to you. Problems caused in a large part whilst Miliband was at DECC, and now worsened by him whilst in opposition. How much investment does your business need, and how important is that investment?
Dribbling away intoning the usual cruddy mantras. Boy, you're having a terrible day and it's only 8.10am....
Go away and enjoy a creme egg.
As for this claim - "Labour does not have a problem with public school educated politicians, either internally (Tony Crosland is a good eg) or electorally (Tony Blair is a good eg)" - they may have been good for Labour but both politicians were disastrous for the country.
Nadine Dorries MP@NadineDorriesMP6m
John Bercow to make announcement today.
And what's with Jim Murphy !!
"Liam Byrne, Stephen Twigg and Jim Murphy were moved not because they were hopeless performers, but because they were never really given a chance to perform. What was Labour’s policy on free schools? Twigg spent most of his tenure being tortured by the conflict between his own instincts and what it was that the party leadership thought was right. Byrne was brought in to sound ‘tough’ on welfare, but he looked weak because he was never given full rein. He wasn’t able to respond to big policies like the benefit cap, and so dithered between opposing it, supporting it, and kind-of opposing it.
At least moving them means the party has an opportunity to be honest about what it really thinks, rather than pretending it thinks one thing by appointing Blairites and then not letting them say anything at all." http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/labour-lurched-towards-honesty-in-its-reshuffle/
you don't know that at all, you simply want to believe it.
"Stella Creasy was expected to be promoted to the Shadow Cabinet. Some of her colleagues will be celebrating the fact she has missed out: a group of seasoned Labour MPs have nicknamed her ‘Stella Greasy’ for her less than subtle promotion efforts; Mr Steerpike is not sure whether that is more or less beastly than ‘St. Ella’, their previous dig at her Goody Two-Shoes image. Disappointing for Creasy; but perhaps missing out on a slot in Ed’s top-team will look like a blessing in disguise, come 2015." http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2013/10/stella-greasy-and-the-enterprising-minister-for-enterprise/
24/7.
All over the place so far this morning however, too many moles to hit on the head with his rubber hammer.
Did OGH post the Sunday Times YG 1-week comparison as we had after the Labour conference?
'Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon 27m
UK house prices rising fastest for decade and market "gaining momentum" says RICS survey. In other news, help-to-buy 2 starts today..
Such a deeply unpopular policy with thousands of young people.
Interesting YG with Labour and Tory towards their recent top ends.
"Mr Ed everybody wants to use more electricty since it's cheaper"
" I never said I would increase supply of energy "
That he's kept his job is amazing - he's got the biggest dartboard in history on his back. I'm delighted.
"I happen to think that the New Labour position was too soft, too optimistic, too over-confident, and therefore too ambitious and too fragile, and that we should face this head on next time. As a result I’m harder edged, less tolerant of waffly ambition, vague aspirations, optimistic numbers and glorious projections. If we’re going to secure a better Britain, I want to know the fine print and the invoice terms, not hear the sales pitch."
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
“@GlenysKinnock: Commentators are wrong, Jim Murphy's new role leading on development is a promotion not a "downgrade".” Lol
Looks like Andy might have some more lessons to learn.
"The average house price currently stands at £170,733, despite the recent rally it is still down significantly from its boom-time peak of £199,612 in August 2007."
Mr. Observer, on holiday or business? Hope you have a nice time either way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WgaLnYbNuRg
Whatever you think of Newsnight/BBC - they've lost Crick, Mason, Flanders and others in short order. There's something going on post Savile.
Let's see shall we. As for US comparisons it's just a tad apples v oranges unless you really want to live in downtown detroit or anchorage or.......
Ha! @markpack doing his best to defend Norman Baker, saying at least he doesn't think there are aliens in the gardens of Buckingham Palace
Thats GOs fault of course.
The problem is that UK politics has been concentrated on the centre ground for a couple of decades now. Any small shift away from the ground seems large, because the move redefines UK politics. It will be interesting to see if the small shift attracts or repels more voters.
On that point, the Conservative's occasional lurches slightly to the right hardly ended successfully.
However, for those who follow the oil markets, in the last month Brent Crude has dropped from $115 to about $108 and so a few pence off at the pumps. Recently it has climbed back to around $109. But what is interesting is the inter-day variations.
In the last week (and yesterday for example) once the European markets open, the oil price drops by 50c or more until Wall Street opens and then it regains that loss and may add a bit more. I know some syndicates that have taken an option on the turn (just as price is rising) and sold out again after UK COB. Now they have made a profit of up to 50c per barrel. If your option is around 1m barrels, then as Arthur Daley said, "it 's a nice little earner". Of course there are some expenses and you have to be good for your losses if the market/events go against you.
Have a good day and must get back to work - too many new contracts and not enough good people to do them. If any of you have a PhD in Chemical Engineering and are curious by nature, we can offer you £500-£600 a day for a 6 month contract.
That's all GOs fault of course.
There was also (in the media generally) a shocking lack of intelligent reporting about why energy prices are so high (ie a crying greenist who deliberately increased prices with a green levy).
Burnham is in the producers pocket on health.
@PlatoSays Norman Baker' s show is really good. But he has to use turntables as he brings most of his music in.
@seahavenFM
Edit: having looked at twitter I see Mike tweeted this point earlier
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/japan-early-discussion.html
It'll be interesting to see where Di Resta, Massa, Hulkenberg and one or two others end up. If the latter ends up with no seat because of his height (which will be a bigger problem next year) then that'd be a disgrace, and proof the rules need changing.
It's like losing Mastermind to Baldrick.
Which is what you would expect with a markedly improving economic backdrop and is the mirror image of Labour's equally declining VI lead.
A step forward for nuclear weapons developmentnuclear fusion research. The National Ignition Facility in the US has apparently managed a sustained net-energy reaction (i.e. they got out more energy than they put in).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24429621
Still a long way to go, and I still can't help but think that laser fusion is a dead-end for production purposes. But they are learning a heck of a lot about materials and properties that will be useful for nuclear weapons developmentfuture fusion plants.
Wrong kind of housebuilding
Wrong kind of economic activity
Wrong kind of investment
Wrong kind of tax revenue
Wrong kind of growth
Tim are you the poster who hates Britain ?
''Simon Nixon @Simon_Nixon 27m
UK house prices rising fastest for decade and market "gaining momentum" says RICS survey. In other news, help-to-buy 2 starts today.'.
Such a deeply unpopular policy with thousands of young people.
Here's the reality,see if you can understand it,it's a little complex.
'For the United Kingdom as a whole house prices were up 3.3 percent to an average of £245,000.But if London and the South-East are stripped out they barely moved and are only marginally above the last peak reached in 2007.
London & the South East does not comprise the UK,got it yet?
Help to Buy, then. Are the banks' balance sheets and the nation's finances generally in such a bad state that the government can't let house prices fall (or, more realistically, stagnate so that inflation does the job) back to long-term historical trend income ratios? Britons still spend far too much of our income on housing (rent or mortgage) yet the government seems hell-bent on stopping the free market doing its work and making houses more affordable.
Why do we 'need' all this schemes to stimulate the housing market? Because houses in many parts of this country are stupidly overpriced, that's why. I might move to the north next year; any recommendations as to exactly where?
As ever, the judgement will be on results rather than nominal internal pecking orders within Ministries.
Housing is a classic "I wouldn't have started from here" issue. It is not the banks' balance sheets so much as the nation's. And their P&L statements.
If they have to write down the value of their property then in many cases their liabilities will be greater than their assets.
That is not a great position to be in either financially or psychologically.
The main problem is, that for many perfectly sensible reasons, no government has been prepared to rebalance the economy away from its reliance on housing as a prime "wealth" driver.
Help to Buy is certainly "out there" as a policy and hence the many caveats, based mainly around BoE oversight, that have been brought in subsequently.
As long as Mark Carney is comfortable with it so am I.
It's #Budget day in the National Assembly. Here's a reminder of what Labour has cut from the #NHS budget since 2010: yourvoiceintheassembly.co.uk/welshnhscuts/
(Cross-posted with tim)
One key test will be how the government responds to the consultation on whether a large chunk of the New Homes Bonus will be top-sliced to fund the LEPs. Councils of all shapes and sizes and political hues are hopping made about that (fast) one.
David Smith @dsmitheconomics 10m
Is pay starting to turn? Recruitment & Employment Confederation says permanent salary inflation highest since Feb 08: http://www.rec.uk.com/press/news/2413
http://www.cityam.com/article/1381192361/manufacturing-boost-growth-third-quarter?utm_source=website&utm_medium=TD_article_grids_homepage&utm_campaign=TD_article_grids_homepage
"MANUFACTURERS are reporting some of the strongest growth on record, according to the most recent quarterly survey by the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC).
Released today, the report shows some of the strongest balances ever seen by the manufacturing sector, beating every quarter since 1989."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=S_PecsEGbsY
This YouGov "best party" on specific issues polling would look very different if UKIP had been one of party options
pic.twitter.com/uYC6ge2OIE
Pollsters still hiding the UKIP factor.
I'm cool with that.
"The maximum amortization period was dropped from 30 to 25 years, the maximim refinancing amount was reduced from 85 to 80%, the gross debt service ratio was brought to 39% and total debt service ratio to 44%, and the availability of government-backed mortgage insurance is restricted to homes with a value of $1 million or less."
http://www.torontosun.com/2012/06/21/feds-to-tighten-mortgage-rules
But yes, and no.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/does-canada-have-a-housing-bubble/article14158818/
No wonder tim's so agitated.