Yes, May benefits as you say, even if the poll largely shows only name recognition. The interesting name for his comparatively low score is Michael Gove; for all that his reforms at education and justice are often said to be popular with the party base, this is evidence they were not.
That's interesting thanks. Although I was bemused by the line: "Highlander taught us that our ancestors were superstitious peasants"
I'm far from sure that a film about immortals set in Scotland and modern-day New York (well, 1980s NY) is particularly meant to be taking Scotland's history seriously ...
Although it did a world of good for tourism at Eileen Donan ...
Interesting report on the boundary review and missing voters:
"For the Government’s continuing insistence that the ‘electorate’ is formed only by those registered in December 2015 excludes 1.75 million voters, who were newly registered in 2016, and 2.3 million who registered in the run-up to the 2017 election, of whom two-thirds were aged under 35."
Thats always going to be the case. If it takes time, (years) to draw up the boundaries, logically every year it will be outdated.
That's not a reason to not do it.
There was quite a marked change. Not your usual churn.
Doesn't really matter. Whats the alternative...oh lets wait for another review which will take another 2-3 years at which time there might more more churn etc etc.....
Its the same logic of people which never change their TV from 20 years ago because 'they get better and cheaper so i might as well wait'. Yes, thats true, but it's missing the point.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
Brown was always Bonkers , Maggie just went Bonkers at the end
Interesting report on the boundary review and missing voters:
"For the Government’s continuing insistence that the ‘electorate’ is formed only by those registered in December 2015 excludes 1.75 million voters, who were newly registered in 2016, and 2.3 million who registered in the run-up to the 2017 election, of whom two-thirds were aged under 35."
Thats always going to be the case. If it takes time, (years) to draw up the boundaries, logically every year it will be outdated.
That's not a reason to not do it.
There was quite a marked change. Not your usual churn.
Doesn't really matter. Whats the alternative...oh lets wait for another review which will take another 2-3 years at which time there might more more churn etc etc.....
Its the same logic of people which never change their TV from 20 years ago because 'they get better and cheaper so i might as well wait'. Yes, thats true, but it's missing the point.
You are right. The alternative is an even more out of date set of boundaries...
Interesting report on the boundary review and missing voters:
"For the Government’s continuing insistence that the ‘electorate’ is formed only by those registered in December 2015 excludes 1.75 million voters, who were newly registered in 2016, and 2.3 million who registered in the run-up to the 2017 election, of whom two-thirds were aged under 35."
Thats always going to be the case. If it takes time, (years) to draw up the boundaries, logically every year it will be outdated.
That's not a reason to not do it.
There was quite a marked change. Not your usual churn.
Doesn't really matter. Whats the alternative...oh lets wait for another review which will take another 2-3 years at which time there might more more churn etc etc.....
Its the same logic of people which never change their TV from 20 years ago because 'they get better and cheaper so i might as well wait'. Yes, thats true, but it's missing the point.
You are right. The alternative is an even more out of date set of boundaries...
The boundary review has been pushed back twice now, and the current boundaries date from 2005 data so will be 17 years old by the scheduled next election.
The Tories will vote for the review (with the mother of all three line whips) and the DUP are now on side too after some revisions in NI, so they’re going to pass.
A few hardcore Corbynites might be at the coincidentally-scheduled Islington Friends of Palestine meeting on the same evening, just to make absolutely sure the mandatory reselections will need to happen.
Interesting report on the boundary review and missing voters:
"For the Government’s continuing insistence that the ‘electorate’ is formed only by those registered in December 2015 excludes 1.75 million voters, who were newly registered in 2016, and 2.3 million who registered in the run-up to the 2017 election, of whom two-thirds were aged under 35."
Thats always going to be the case. If it takes time, (years) to draw up the boundaries, logically every year it will be outdated.
That's not a reason to not do it.
There was quite a marked change. Not your usual churn.
Doesn't really matter. Whats the alternative...oh lets wait for another review which will take another 2-3 years at which time there might more more churn etc etc.....
Its the same logic of people which never change their TV from 20 years ago because 'they get better and cheaper so i might as well wait'. Yes, thats true, but it's missing the point.
You are right. The alternative is an even more out of date set of boundaries...
That is not necessarily true. I don't know the details, but unlike the TV that gets more and more out of date with time population changes are not necessarily one directional. The implementation may be making the situation worse rather than being a partial correction.
- Trump is really upset because this is absolutely personal: it is an attack on him, his methods, his ability and his effectiveness. Trump doesn't much care about treason against the US; his sole loyalty is to himself, and then to his family and close associates. That is why he'll see this - coming from someone inside his organisation - as the ultimate betrayal.
- That proves, once again, that the best way to understand Trump is in the model of a paranoid mafia boss.
- And, as TSE rightly predicts, this will set off an almighty witchhunt, in which no-one is trusted and Trump's bunker mentality and sense of victimhood is multiplied, as is the Administration's dysfunctionality. In the words of Abney and Teal, this is not good.
- How Trump reacts will be fascinating and perhaps terrifying. He'd probably like to sack his entire administration, were it not for the fact that he needs them and he may find it difficult to get congressional approvals for the replacements he'd like.
- There is now an awful lot of pressure on Pence. The Health-Coup provisions of the 25th amendments cannot be invoked without his assent. No other person has a personal veto. We are now seriously into discussions about whether that provision should be invoked, though for the practical purposes of this November's elections, nothing is likely to be done in the next two months, and probably not in the next four (though the liberty a lame-duck Congress enjoys is not to be underestimated).
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
She was rather bonkers after the 1987 election. She completely lost her political antenna.
I dont think losing your political antenna is the same as bonkers though. The instincts and characteristics that make you successful at the beginning are what can do you in at end.
She got drunk on her own mythology. Seeing her defenestrated by her own party was sweet pleasure. Followed by a sulk rivaling her predecessor.
She was kicked out because she became anti-EU at a time when the elite of the Tory party was becoming more pro-EU. They knew she would never agree to the Maastricht treaty which was upcoming which would have caused a crisis. She was kicked out because of Europe, not the poll tax or her temporary unpopularity.
Of course, as history has proven, she was right and they were wrong.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
Brown was always Bonkers , Maggie just went Bonkers at the end
I'm amazed anybody can remain PM (or president..) for many years without losing the plot slightly. The stress must be amazing, and it must be incredibly hard not to get absorbed into a bubble and lost contact with the 'real' world outside.
Although in Trump's case, he's lost the plot before he became president ...
The NYT op-ed piece almost feels like it has been planted as a way to motivate Trump supporters to go out and vote. It confirms their worst fears about the “deep state”
+1. There is only value to secretly working against Trump f.rom within if nobody knows. Whilst I am certain the NYT is not the primary news source for Trumps team, I am sure it will come to their attention
Morning all,
It is all very odd.
What is to be gained, as others have noted, from publishing this? The only thing I can think is someone thinks we are at a tipping point with either a) moves to remove him (and these moves need a last bit of a push) or b) a POTUS decision so stupid, that the writer wants to tell history that they were trying to stop it.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
She was rather bonkers after the 1987 election. She completely lost her political antenna.
I dont think losing your political antenna is the same as bonkers though. The instincts and characteristics that make you successful at the beginning are what can do you in at end.
She got drunk on her own mythology. Seeing her defenestrated by her own party was sweet pleasure. Followed by a sulk rivaling her predecessor.
She was kicked out because she became anti-EU at a time when the elite of the Tory party was becoming more pro-EU. They knew she would never agree to the Maastricht treaty which was upcoming which would have caused a crisis. She was kicked out because of Europe, not the poll tax or her temporary unpopularity.
Of course, as history has proven, she was right and they were wrong.
Yes, May benefits as you say, even if the poll largely shows only name recognition. The interesting name for his comparatively low score is Michael Gove; for all that his reforms at education and justice are often said to be popular with the party base, this is evidence they were not.
Both Javid and Gove had led the poll before the Chequers Deal, it is a reaction to Gove's support for that not his education and justice reforms
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
Brown was always Bonkers , Maggie just went Bonkers at the end
I'm amazed anybody can remain PM (or president..) for many years without losing the plot slightly. The stress must be amazing, and it must be incredibly hard not to get absorbed into a bubble and lost contact with the 'real' world outside.
Although in Trump's case, he's lost the plot before he became president ...
Number 10 has seen both Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher leave in the early stages of dementia, and there is Reagan across the pond.
But then, so what? Even in the local paper, one is struck by the number of obituary notices that end with, No flowers; donations to Mind, or some other mental health charity. As these conditions become more and more common, it is harder to see the particular strains of high office as playing a causal role.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
Brown was always Bonkers , Maggie just went Bonkers at the end
I'm amazed anybody can remain PM (or president..) for many years without losing the plot slightly. The stress must be amazing, and it must be incredibly hard not to get absorbed into a bubble and lost contact with the 'real' world outside.
Although in Trump's case, he's lost the plot before he became president ...
I find the remarkable one to be people staying in the US Senate way beyond any time that is reasonable.
I wonder whether the various criminals, racists and con-artists in the Lords will call that institution into serious question any time soon?
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Both Heseltine and Clarke got to the final 2 as did Davis even if they did not win.
The only favourite who stood and did not get to the final 2 was Portillo in 2001 as he lost the support of Eurosceptic right-wing MPs to IDS, not a problem.for Boris now
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
You have to look at who the alternatives were in those cases. If there are a lot of MPs determined to stop Boris - and this is likely - then he will be stopped. Boris provides a large target to be shot at. The risk in stopping Boris is that someone else unsuitable is accidentally let through (the IDS scenario).
- There is now an awful lot of pressure on Pence. The Health-Coup provisions of the 25th amendments cannot be invoked without his assent. No other person has a personal veto. We are now seriously into discussions about whether that provision should be invoked, though for the practical purposes of this November's elections, nothing is likely to be done in the next two months, and probably not in the next four (though the liberty a lame-duck Congress enjoys is not to be underestimated).
Which is why it looks to me like preparing the ground work. If not by Pence himself, then somebody close to him.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
- Trump is really upset because this is absolutely personal: it is an attack on him, his methods, his ability and his effectiveness. Trump doesn't much care about treason against the US; his sole loyalty is to himself, and then to his family and close associates. That is why he'll see this - coming from someone inside his organisation - as the ultimate betrayal.
- That proves, once again, that the best way to understand Trump is in the model of a paranoid mafia boss.
- And, as TSE rightly predicts, this will set off an almighty witchhunt, in which no-one is trusted and Trump's bunker mentality and sense of victimhood is multiplied, as is the Administration's dysfunctionality. In the words of Abney and Teal, this is not good.
- How Trump reacts will be fascinating and perhaps terrifying. He'd probably like to sack his entire administration, were it not for the fact that he needs them and he may find it difficult to get congressional approvals for the replacements he'd like....
Fascinating and terrifying sounds about right, the considerable powers of the Presidency being held by this guy : https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/05/donald-trump-nixon-presidency-219639 “He is fearless,” Roger Stone, the former campaign adviser who’s known Trump since 1979, told me in a text message Wednesday afternoon. “He is tough as nails.” Stone, who has a tattoo on his back of Richard Nixon because of his admiration for the late 37th president, then added something about Trump that shocked me: “Makes Nixon look like a cream puff.” Nixon? “Nixon was smarter,” Stone responded, “but Trump is tougher.”...
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
She was rather bonkers after the 1987 election. She completely lost her political antenna.
I dont think losing your political antenna is the same as bonkers though. The instincts and characteristics that make you successful at the beginning are what can do you in at end.
She got drunk on her own mythology. Seeing her defenestrated by her own party was sweet pleasure. Followed by a sulk rivaling her predecessor.
She was kicked out because she became anti-EU at a time when the elite of the Tory party was becoming more pro-EU. They knew she would never agree to the Maastricht treaty which was upcoming which would have caused a crisis. She was kicked out because of Europe, not the poll tax or her temporary unpopularity.
Of course, as history has proven, she was right and they were wrong.
Seeing it as an either-or is a classic error. Leaders can be removed for more than one reason. The primary reason she was removed was because she was going to cost the Tories the next election, and removing her would solve - temporarily perhaps, but for long enough - the causes of that unpopularity. Part of that was undoubtedly the Poll Tax but it was also the Tories' internal divisions on Europe. It was also her style of leadership.
"… I just feel like somebody is trying to pull the fire alarm and I’m not sure we know as a country how we are supposed to respond when an alarm is sounded like this.”
I used to feel like that on a daily basis when it became obvious that Maggie was stark staring bonkers........
You need to look at more recent history, Maggie wasn't bonkers. Brown definitely WAS.
Brown was always Bonkers , Maggie just went Bonkers at the end
I'm amazed anybody can remain PM (or president..) for many years without losing the plot slightly. The stress must be amazing, and it must be incredibly hard not to get absorbed into a bubble and lost contact with the 'real' world outside.
Although in Trump's case, he's lost the plot before he became president ...
Number 10 has seen both Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher leave in the early stages of dementia, and there is Reagan across the pond.
But then, so what? Even in the local paper, one is struck by the number of obituary notices that end with, No flowers; donations to Mind, or some other mental health charity. As these conditions become more and more common, it is harder to see the particular strains of high office as playing a causal role.
I wasn't necessarily talking about dementia, but about how society and the problems facing society change. You can go into parliament knowing lots about the problems, and eight years later you become party leader. Three years after that you become PM.
That is eleven years during which you've become increasingly detached from society and become immersed in a bubble. If you're then PM for ten years, then that's two decades increasingly separate from the real world, real people, and their real problems - things statistics often don't show.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Jeremy Hunt ought to be favourite imo, or joint favourite with Javid. What Hunt should do is sharpen up his image as he can look a bit shabby on television, and the long air flights as Foreign Secretary will not help. He must follow Jeremy Corbyn's lead and have a word with David Cameron's mum to get the name of a decent tailor and shirtmaker.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
- Trump is really upset because this is absolutely personal: it is an attack on him, his methods, his ability and his effectiveness. Trump doesn't much care about treason against the US; his sole loyalty is to himself, and then to his family and close associates. That is why he'll see this - coming from someone inside his organisation - as the ultimate betrayal.
- That proves, once again, that the best way to understand Trump is in the model of a paranoid mafia boss.
- And, as TSE rightly predicts, this will set off an almighty witchhunt, in which no-one is trusted and Trump's bunker mentality and sense of victimhood is multiplied, as is the Administration's dysfunctionality. In the words of Abney and Teal, this is not good.
- How Trump reacts will be fascinating and perhaps terrifying. He'd probably like to sack his entire administration, were it not for the fact that he needs them and he may find it difficult to get congressional approvals for the replacements he'd like....
Fascinating and terrifying sounds about right, the considerable powers of the Presidency being held by this guy : https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/05/donald-trump-nixon-presidency-219639 “He is fearless,” Roger Stone, the former campaign adviser who’s known Trump since 1979, told me in a text message Wednesday afternoon. “He is tough as nails.” Stone, who has a tattoo on his back of Richard Nixon because of his admiration for the late 37th president, then added something about Trump that shocked me: “Makes Nixon look like a cream puff.” Nixon? “Nixon was smarter,” Stone responded, “but Trump is tougher.”...
I can't see him going gentle into the good night.
I’m not totally certain of the good sense of someone who had a portrait of Richard Nixon tattooed on his back.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
Nope, you are quite right. But May is delusional so what do you expect?
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Jeremy Hunt ought to be favourite imo, or joint favourite with Javid. What Hunt should do is sharpen up his image as he can look a bit shabby on television, and the long air flights as Foreign Secretary will not help. He must follow Jeremy Corbyn's lead and have a word with David Cameron's mum to get the name of a decent tailor and shirtmaker.
You are falling for the usual trick of supporting whoever looks best of the telly. Not at the moment. Tory members want a Leaver in No 10 and that is what they are going to get.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
Wakey wakey. Chequers is dead. Brexit is going just fine!
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
Does it not worry you that Rees-Mogg and Barnier are on the same page on CETA? It strongly suggests Rees-Mogg is happy to jettison Northern Ireland.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
He's like a real-life version of Sir Les Patterson in reverse. What an embarrassment.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Disagree.
First of all, Boris can’t “Kick May out”, it requires a majority (160) of Con MPs to vote for no confidence in her.
If the election is for a Prime Minister, rather than a LotO, then JRM isn’t standing, he has zero ministerial experience and is intelligent enough to understand that. The only person advocating for Boris is Boris, and he’s shown himself up to be a poor performer unable to grasp the detail of a senior role in government. Plenty of MPs now see him as a divisive figure who is to be avoided at all costs.
The last Leaver standing is more likely to be Davis or Gove, the former having resigned on a point of principle over Brexit, and the latter quietly getting on with his day job at DEFRA - possibly the department most directly affected by leaving the EU.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
Wakey wakey. Chequers is dead. Brexit is going just fine!
Chequers was never alive. It's main purpose was to force the hand of the Leavers in the cabinet, which it did.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
Wakey wakey. Chequers is dead. Brexit is going just fine!
Chequers was never alive. It's main purpose was to force the hand of the Leavers in the cabinet, which it did.
I agree that Chequers was DOA, but not as part of a game of 12-dimensional chess being played by Theresa May. Just more garden-variety incompetence
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
Wakey wakey. Chequers is dead. Brexit is going just fine!
Chequers was never alive. It's main purpose was to force the hand of the Leavers in the cabinet, which it did.
I agree that Chequers was DOA, but not as part of a game of 12-dimensional chess being played by Theresa May. Just more garden-variety incompetence
I've concluded that in these circumstances managing to survive day-to-day is indistinguishable from far-sighted strategic genius in practice.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Jeremy Hunt ought to be favourite imo, or joint favourite with Javid. What Hunt should do is sharpen up his image as he can look a bit shabby on television, and the long air flights as Foreign Secretary will not help. He must follow Jeremy Corbyn's lead and have a word with David Cameron's mum to get the name of a decent tailor and shirtmaker.
You are falling for the usual trick of supporting whoever looks best of the telly. Not at the moment. Tory members want a Leaver in No 10 and that is what they are going to get.
Quite the opposite. My last paragraph says Hunt looks worst. If Theresa May retires as PM, her successor will probably hold one of the great offices of state: Hunt, Javid or Hammond. I have bet on each of them. Brexit will likely have happened by then so the Remain/Leave divide is a red herring: it will be about steadying the ship.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
I don't doubt it but I am pressed to work out what kind of fudge that would be.
It'd be good if any leaver on here - in fact any poster - could point to a post pre-referendum where they said: "... although Northern Ireland might cause any deal a few difficulties..."
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
I don't doubt it but I am pressed to work out what kind of fudge that would be.
the UK will buy off the DUP. the Irish govt will "cooperate" ( as Enda Kenny had started to do anyway ) and both sides will claim they have found a modu operandi.
NI will then drop off the radar and go back to being a place no one gives a shit about.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
The CETA is of no help when it comes to dealing with Northern Ireland. Any bespoke agreement would need a special chapter that may allow Northern Ireland to stay in the Customs Union and/or in the Single Market. Such a chapter may actually be welcomed by the EU – and even more so by the Republic of Ireland – but would mean the beginning of the end of the UK, as it would split the UK into a small part that is integrated into the economic rules of the EU and a larger part that operates within its own rules and practices. The second ‘plus’ would require a special treatment clause for Northern Ireland that does minimise negative economic and political costs for both sides. The magic formula is still missing here.
Was interesting that on Sky News this morning government minister said it went right up to Putin and a few minutes ago Martin Brunt said that the police / intelligence services have a lot more information on the case but aren't willing to make public.
Of course Jezza could be briefed on this, but it still unlikely to be good enough for him and Milne.
I have to say staying in a £48 a night shit hole hotel and travelling by train, not exactly James Bond stuff his it. Where was the Aston Martin, stay at the Ritz and night having it away with a member of hotel staff?
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Disagree.
First of all, Boris can’t “Kick May out”, it requires a majority (160) of Con MPs to vote for no confidence in her.
If the election is for a Prime Minister, rather than a LotO, then JRM isn’t standing, he has zero ministerial experience and is intelligent enough to understand that. The only person advocating for Boris is Boris, and he’s shown himself up to be a poor performer unable to grasp the detail of a senior role in government. Plenty of MPs now see him as a divisive figure who is to be avoided at all costs.
The last Leaver standing is more likely to be Davis or Gove, the former having resigned on a point of principle over Brexit, and the latter quietly getting on with his day job at DEFRA - possibly the department most directly affected by leaving the EU.
Davis should be much higher in the ConHome poll IMHO - as an interim Leave PM to oversee the implementation of Brexit. He could then allow a vote for his successor ahead of the next General Election and in a much less febrile atmosphere, when it will be far less about Remain v Leave and far more about Credible v Incredible.
If Boris is still serious about running, he - and the others who want the job - could spend the next couple of years offering us their insights into how a post-Brexit Britain should be run, and how to make that vision appealling to the voters.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
- Trump is really upset because this is absolutely personal: it is an attack on him, his methods, his ability and his effectiveness. Trump doesn't much care about treason against the US; his sole loyalty is to himself, and then to his family and close associates. That is why he'll see this - coming from someone inside his organisation - as the ultimate betrayal.
- That proves, once again, that the best way to understand Trump is in the model of a paranoid mafia boss.
- And, as TSE rightly predicts, this will set off an almighty witchhunt, in which no-one is trusted and Trump's bunker mentality and sense of victimhood is multiplied, as is the Administration's dysfunctionality. In the words of Abney and Teal, this is not good.
- How Trump reacts will be fascinating and perhaps terrifying. He'd probably like to sack his entire administration, were it not for the fact that he needs them and he may find it difficult to get congressional approvals for the replacements he'd like....
Fascinating and terrifying sounds about right, the considerable powers of the Presidency being held by this guy : https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/05/donald-trump-nixon-presidency-219639 “He is fearless,” Roger Stone, the former campaign adviser who’s known Trump since 1979, told me in a text message Wednesday afternoon. “He is tough as nails.” Stone, who has a tattoo on his back of Richard Nixon because of his admiration for the late 37th president, then added something about Trump that shocked me: “Makes Nixon look like a cream puff.” Nixon? “Nixon was smarter,” Stone responded, “but Trump is tougher.”...
I can't see him going gentle into the good night.
I’m not totally certain of the good sense of someone who had a portrait of Richard Nixon tattooed on his back.
Indeed - Stone is another fairly crazy right winger (and another target of the Mueller investigation). But he does know Trump very well.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Jeremy Hunt ought to be favourite imo, or joint favourite with Javid. What Hunt should do is sharpen up his image as he can look a bit shabby on television, and the long air flights as Foreign Secretary will not help. He must follow Jeremy Corbyn's lead and have a word with David Cameron's mum to get the name of a decent tailor and shirtmaker.
You are falling for the usual trick of supporting whoever looks best of the telly. Not at the moment. Tory members want a Leaver in No 10 and that is what they are going to get.
Quite the opposite. My last paragraph says Hunt looks worst. If Theresa May retires as PM, her successor will probably hold one of the great offices of state: Hunt, Javid or Hammond. I have bet on each of them. Brexit will likely have happened by then so the Remain/Leave divide is a red herring: it will be about steadying the ship.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
Labour shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has said he would not fire nuclear weapons to protect Britain and named Das Kapital as his most influential book.
What is interesting at the moment is that the Remainers seem all at sea. For a year and a half they preached soft Brexit, going on about pragmatism and compromise, finally falling at May's feet in adoration when she sold out on all her red lines and proposed what they wanted. And what happened - the EU completely rejected their idea.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
Are "Real Brexiteers" like the "Real IRA" ?
Still, at least you're safe there in Oz, eh?
Our Oz brethren can reminisce about the old country in Theme Pubs and send financial contributions back home to help the ongoing struggle.
Hunt has no chance whatsoever. Javid only if he resigns over Chequers before Boris kicks May out. This poll is simply screaming that the Tory members won't elect a Remainer (or Gove who has sold out). And if Boris does not stand or pulls out, JRM is the most likely winner. Leaver Tory MPs will back whichever Leaver is left standing.
Jeremy Hunt ought to be favourite imo, or joint favourite with Javid. What Hunt should do is sharpen up his image as he can look a bit shabby on television, and the long air flights as Foreign Secretary will not help. He must follow Jeremy Corbyn's lead and have a word with David Cameron's mum to get the name of a decent tailor and shirtmaker.
You are falling for the usual trick of supporting whoever looks best of the telly. Not at the moment. Tory members want a Leaver in No 10 and that is what they are going to get.
Quite the opposite. My last paragraph says Hunt looks worst. If Theresa May retires as PM, her successor will probably hold one of the great offices of state: Hunt, Javid or Hammond. I have bet on each of them. Brexit will likely have happened by then so the Remain/Leave divide is a red herring: it will be about steadying the ship.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Why won't they if the alternative is no deal and life in the UK will be indistinguishable from the circumstances depicted by Cormac McCarthy in The Road?
Labour shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has said he would not fire nuclear weapons to protect Britain and named Das Kapital as his most influential book.
I have to say staying in a £48 a night shit hole hotel and travelling by train, not exactly James Bond stuff his it. Where was the Aston Martin, stay at the Ritz and night having it away with a member of hotel staff?
LOL. From all the information we saw published yesterday they were pretty crap spies. They took the same routes multiple times, stayed in the same hotel for two nights, flew in and out straight from Moscow, took direct trains from Waterloo to Salisbury and didn’t change their clothes or appearances during their trip.
Maybe the whole thing was set up so the Russian GRU could see how much of a dossier we could assemble about their trip?
As @Dura_Ace suggested, it’s likely they were a couple of disposable and deniable low-level operatives, rather than Russian James Bonds.
I have to say staying in a £48 a night shit hole hotel and travelling by train, not exactly James Bond stuff his it. Where was the Aston Martin, stay at the Ritz and night having it away with a member of hotel staff?
LOL. From all the information we saw published yesterday they were pretty crap spies. They took the same routes multiple times, stayed in the same hotel for two nights, flew in and out straight from Moscow, took direct trains from Waterloo to Salisbury and didn’t change their clothes or appearances during their trip.
Maybe the whole thing was set up so the Russian GRU could see how much of a dossier we could assemble about their trip?
As @Dura_Ace suggested, it’s likely they were a couple of disposable and deniable low-level operatives, rather than Russian James Bonds.
Or has somebody said on here yesterday, perhaps they were totally expendable.
This lack of high quality accommodation and having to use pleb transport has put me right off applying to join the GRU.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
IMO it will come to a crunch point, at which the only two options will be the deal on the table or a crash out, that will focus minds to accept what’s available even if it’s not exactly what they want.
There’s zero chance of another referendum or an election, no time and no appetite from the government benches.
There’s still no chance that the MPs will vote for Boris though, but it’s fair to say that his name (and that of JRM, who definitely won’t run) in the survey is a good proxy that the members are unhappy with the direction taken by the government on Brexit.
I’m still laying Boris and JRM, backing Javid and Hunt, and neutral on Gove.
Tory MPs put IDS, Davis and Leadsom in the final 2, no guarantees enough would not put Boris in the final 2 sent to the Tory membership either
The regularity with which MPs have kept the favourite out of the final 2 is perhaps more instructive.
Not instructive at all. Just circumstance. And the circumstance this time will be that a Leaver will make the final two and win the leadership.
Even the most hardcore Leaver would be constrained by the political reality which means Brexit is dead.
Wakey wakey. Chequers is dead. Brexit is going just fine!
That's odd.
Why did both the key negotiators mention it yesterday - Raab in the HoC, Barnier in a tweet:
Maybe the whole thing was set up so the Russian GRU could see how much of a dossier we could assemble about their trip?
As @Dura_Ace suggested, it’s likely they were a couple of disposable and deniable low-level operatives, rather than Russian James Bonds.
It's obvious it was Russia, and it's obvious Russia wanted it to be known it was Russia. It's also readily apparent to me that "Ruslan Borishov" (And the other guy) is some no mark with a completely fake name. Of course Russia will deny it is Russia - see the 'Firehose of falsehood video'. All part of Putin's game.
On topic, since this administration is basically reality TV our best guide is other TV programs.
I'm not sure which one it will be but if this was Homeland, Trump would try to do a purge of his cabinet to prevent real or imagined plotters from 25-amendment-ing him, and if they see that coming his cabinet will have to 25-amendment him pre-emptively to prevent him from purging them and replacing them with loyalist lunatics.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement. Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade? I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
On present form, in a general election we have on the one side the Tories who are totally set on leaving the EU; and also the Labour Party, whose leaders are also set on leaving the EU. On the other hand, we have the Lib Dems who are in favour of remaining in the EU.
A general election will decide nothing about our future relationship with the EU, if the public are presented by the media and by these two over-dominant parties as a choice between the two of them.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
IMO it will come to a crunch point, at which the only two options will be the deal on the table or a crash out, that will focus minds to accept what’s available even if it’s not exactly what they want.
There’s zero chance of another referendum or an election, no time and no appetite from the government benches.
Or has somebody said on here yesterday, perhaps they were totally expendable.
Presumably, yes. The whole thing has hardly been an exercise in subtle assassination though - it was clearly meant to be as high profile and ugly as possible, as per Litvinenko.
If they just silently wanted rid of Skripal he'd have "committed suicide", like Berezovsky.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
IMO it will come to a crunch point, at which the only two options will be the deal on the table or a crash out, that will focus minds to accept what’s available even if it’s not exactly what they want.
There’s zero chance of another referendum or an election, no time and no appetite from the government benches.
I'll place a sporting fiver at infinity to 1.
Can you see a path to either outcome, given the timescales involved?
I've been thinking whether I would if I were Prime Minister. Under what possible circumstances would the use of nuclear weapons be justified - the very use of them makes any of Trump's current antics seem like reason incarnate?
The illogic of their possession and use is of course entirely logical and has kept Europe mostly at peace for nearly 75 years.
To accept and understand the well-researched horror of a nuclear exchange is to appreciate how nuclear weapons can be possessed but must never be used.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
On Bloomberg today there was an article saying both Britain and Germany (sic) are ready to agree a waffly political declaration to try to reach an agreement.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
If they’re going to insist on some waffly can-kicking on trade, then they’re going to need some equally waffly can-kicking on money - because there’s no way we’re paying £39bn without a good-faith negotiation of a comprehensive trade deal, it’s just not going to pass Parliament.
Will anything Brexit related pass parliament? Is there a majority for any plan? If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE. Any real answer welcome.
IMO it will come to a crunch point, at which the only two options will be the deal on the table or a crash out, that will focus minds to accept what’s available even if it’s not exactly what they want.
There’s zero chance of another referendum or an election, no time and no appetite from the government benches.
I'll place a sporting fiver at infinity to 1.
Can you see a path to either outcome, given the timescales involved?
Sure, both. In both cases it could be summed up as "where there's a will there's a way". A will in each case might easily emerge as the route to settle an otherwise insurmountable blockage.
An election doesn't even need anyone to actually want one if the government loses a vote of confidence, which is conceivable in the building febrile atmosphere.
A referendum doesn't have to be statutory (cf the Australian referendum on gay marriage). It could be held at short notice in that way. In practice, the stick of a non-statutory referendum would probably be enough to get Parliament to chase the carrot of a statutory referendum.
Do I think either is particularly likely? No. But I'd say the combined chances are something like one in six.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
I think Alastair’s comment made every heterosexual married man here laugh out loud!
I bet gay men don’t constantly remind each other of that time they got blind drunk five years ago either.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
One of the joys of being married to a Glaswegian is that I am never in any doubt as to what is on her mind and how close to danger I am. Our 25th anniversary approaches and I can genuinely say that I am the luckiest man alive.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
I think Alastair’s comment made every heterosexual married man here laugh out loud!
I bet gay men don’t constantly remind each other of that time they got blind drunk five years ago either.
it's fab being gay; not only do you have immaculate taste in soft furnishings, but also nobody ever stereotypes you for any reason, ever.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I once forgot it was my own birthday until late in the afternoon.
This was on a weekend away - when we had gone away specifically because it was my birthday.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
I think Alastair’s comment made every heterosexual married man here laugh out loud!
I bet gay men don’t constantly remind each other of that time they got blind drunk five years ago either.
That's another losing bet. I'm up to 20 years and counting since a vase broke which I'm blamed for. I wasn't even in the room at the time it happened.
Ha. It’s the sort of decision that’s going to get their marketing director either a massive bonus or a P45 - but it will probably take a few weeks to work out which. If the controversy is blown over by next week then it will be a positive, if Trump spends every day between now and the mid-terms pointing out their Asian shoemaking sweatshops then maybe not.
I think, on balance, it's probably quite an astute (marketing) decision. The Nike demographic, I would guess, skews young and skews ethnic. Nike has maybe a 25-30% share of the sneaker market, and losses among 20 year old Trump supporters may well be offset elsewhere. What I will bet is that this was focus grouped to death. There's no way you make such a ballsy decision without doing your homework*.
It's not just about steadying the ship. Good, competent government is certainly one strand that the Tories need to be able to lay claim to at the next election - and frankly, it's one that needs work on. But it may not of itself be enough. There needs to be a new chapter to move on to after Brexit - one about opening opportunities and enabling social mobility, which needs to be an answer to and a challenge to Labour's own critique and proposals because the Tories cannot afford Labour to be the only party making the running on those issues. For that reason, Gove should be very much ruled in as a possible.
currently Labour is making most the running on these, the tories have lost touch with big parts of the community
Focusing solely on a second order problem driven by mad obsessives and seeking to destroy large parts of the civic framework in pursuit of that goal might have that effect.
well thats gay marriage for you
Did that take two years of the government's energies and 6,400 civil servants?
No idea, gays have as much right to be henpecked as the rest of us.
There are advantages to a relationship with two men. We had our anniversary a couple of weeks back and neither of us remembered until late in the afternoon.
I some times think you gay guys have it right. Managing the whims of a woman is a full time job, somehow by a process of osmosis you are meant to be able to read her mind.
Me: what do you want for tea ? Her: oh anything I dont really care later Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
One of the joys of being married to a Glaswegian is that I am never in any doubt as to what is on her mind and how close to danger I am. Our 25th anniversary approaches and I can genuinely say that I am the luckiest man alive.
I took the Ulster route
after 5 years of buying birthday presents where she didnt know what she wanted and met any gift with s smile and "have you kept the receipt?". I told her if she didnt say what she wanted I wasnt buying anything. She didnt, so I didnt.
Comments
I'm far from sure that a film about immortals set in Scotland and modern-day New York (well, 1980s NY) is particularly meant to be taking Scotland's history seriously ...
Although it did a world of good for tourism at Eileen Donan ...
If there is truly a God, why doesn't he spend more time smiting these fools at their keybo
It did seem weird that they didn’t confirm Kimi at their home race last week.
Shame there wasn't a market on that, that I saw.
Its the same logic of people which never change their TV from 20 years ago because 'they get better and cheaper so i might as well wait'. Yes, thats true, but it's missing the point.
The Tories will vote for the review (with the mother of all three line whips) and the DUP are now on side too after some revisions in NI, so they’re going to pass.
A few hardcore Corbynites might be at the coincidentally-scheduled Islington Friends of Palestine meeting on the same evening, just to make absolutely sure the mandatory reselections will need to happen.
- Trump is really upset because this is absolutely personal: it is an attack on him, his methods, his ability and his effectiveness. Trump doesn't much care about treason against the US; his sole loyalty is to himself, and then to his family and close associates. That is why he'll see this - coming from someone inside his organisation - as the ultimate betrayal.
- That proves, once again, that the best way to understand Trump is in the model of a paranoid mafia boss.
- And, as TSE rightly predicts, this will set off an almighty witchhunt, in which no-one is trusted and Trump's bunker mentality and sense of victimhood is multiplied, as is the Administration's dysfunctionality. In the words of Abney and Teal, this is not good.
- How Trump reacts will be fascinating and perhaps terrifying. He'd probably like to sack his entire administration, were it not for the fact that he needs them and he may find it difficult to get congressional approvals for the replacements he'd like.
- There is now an awful lot of pressure on Pence. The Health-Coup provisions of the 25th amendments cannot be invoked without his assent. No other person has a personal veto. We are now seriously into discussions about whether that provision should be invoked, though for the practical purposes of this November's elections, nothing is likely to be done in the next two months, and probably not in the next four (though the liberty a lame-duck Congress enjoys is not to be underestimated).
Of course, as history has proven, she was right and they were wrong.
Although in Trump's case, he's lost the plot before he became president ...
But then, so what? Even in the local paper, one is struck by the number of obituary notices that end with, No flowers; donations to Mind, or some other mental health charity. As these conditions become more and more common, it is harder to see the particular strains of high office as playing a causal role.
I wonder whether the various criminals, racists and con-artists in the Lords will call that institution into serious question any time soon?
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1037600901811326977
The only favourite who stood and did not get to the final 2 was Portillo in 2001 as he lost the support of Eurosceptic right-wing MPs to IDS, not a problem.for Boris now
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/05/donald-trump-nixon-presidency-219639
“He is fearless,” Roger Stone, the former campaign adviser who’s known Trump since 1979, told me in a text message Wednesday afternoon. “He is tough as nails.” Stone, who has a tattoo on his back of Richard Nixon because of his admiration for the late 37th president, then added something about Trump that shocked me: “Makes Nixon look like a cream puff.” Nixon? “Nixon was smarter,” Stone responded, “but Trump is tougher.”...
I can't see him going gentle into the good night.
That is eleven years during which you've become increasingly detached from society and become immersed in a bubble. If you're then PM for ten years, then that's two decades increasingly separate from the real world, real people, and their real problems - things statistics often don't show.
Why will the House of Commons sign off on paying £40bn for a 21-month transition with the sword of Damocles over Northern Ireland and no guarantees on trade?
I don’t think they will.
Real Brexiteers have been saying all along there was no such thing as Soft Brexit - it was just an attempt by the losing side to make their defeat more palatable. Now Brexit is exposed as we said all along - a binary decision, fully in or fully out, which we all knew and why we ended up having to have a referendum.
Remainers have mocked Leavers for 'not having a plan'. But there is a plan - CETA, which is being detailed apparently in a large dossier shortly and was worked out in detail at DexEU.
It is the Remainers who don't have a plan. Other than having another referendum of course. No wonder all they want to talk about now is Labour and Corbyn.
I am off to see Nigel Farage tonight in Sydney. Hoping to persuade him to emigrate and set up a party here. If he called it the Beer Drinkers Piss-up Party he would probably win an overall majority.
First of all, Boris can’t “Kick May out”, it requires a majority (160) of Con MPs to vote for no confidence in her.
If the election is for a Prime Minister, rather than a LotO, then JRM isn’t standing, he has zero ministerial experience and is intelligent enough to understand that. The only person advocating for Boris is Boris, and he’s shown himself up to be a poor performer unable to grasp the detail of a senior role in government. Plenty of MPs now see him as a divisive figure who is to be avoided at all costs.
The last Leaver standing is more likely to be Davis or Gove, the former having resigned on a point of principle over Brexit, and the latter quietly getting on with his day job at DEFRA - possibly the department most directly affected by leaving the EU.
Still, at least you're safe there in Oz, eh?
blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/02/05/a-canadian-perspective-on-ceta-those-pluses-will-come-with-minuses/
Edit: of course you don't give a f&ck as you don't live here so your idealised view of Blighty will remain untrammelled by facts on the ground.
Its simply a negotiating pawn to be conceded
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1037589213687033856
https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1037348004855009281
NI will then drop off the radar and go back to being a place no one gives a shit about.
anyway this photo from Slugger made me laugh
https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/08/30/do-we-deserve-better/
Was interesting that on Sky News this morning government minister said it went right up to Putin and a few minutes ago Martin Brunt said that the police / intelligence services have a lot more information on the case but aren't willing to make public.
Of course Jezza could be briefed on this, but it still unlikely to be good enough for him and Milne.
If Boris is still serious about running, he - and the others who want the job - could spend the next couple of years offering us their insights into how a post-Brexit Britain should be run, and how to make that vision appealling to the voters.
If not then it will have to be thrown back to the public to decide via a People's Vote or a GE.
Any real answer welcome.
But he does know Trump very well.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/06/john-mcdonnell-says-would-not-fire-nuclear-weapons-protect-uk/
I thought his fav book was Mao's little red book?
I'm reasonably sure he has an extensive library of communist tracts.
Maybe the whole thing was set up so the Russian GRU could see how much of a dossier we could assemble about their trip?
As @Dura_Ace suggested, it’s likely they were a couple of disposable and deniable low-level operatives, rather than Russian James Bonds.
This lack of high quality accommodation and having to use pleb transport has put me right off applying to join the GRU.
There’s zero chance of another referendum or an election, no time and no appetite from the government benches.
Why did both the key negotiators mention it yesterday - Raab in the HoC, Barnier in a tweet:
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1037315948502568961
Do you think its possible (long shot, I know) that they might, just, know a bit more about it?
I'm not sure which one it will be but if this was Homeland, Trump would try to do a purge of his cabinet to prevent real or imagined plotters from 25-amendment-ing him, and if they see that coming his cabinet will have to 25-amendment him pre-emptively to prevent him from purging them and replacing them with loyalist lunatics.
It still scares me that they were within half a mile of my house in Salisbury!
A general election will decide nothing about our future relationship with the EU, if the public are presented by the media and by these two over-dominant parties as a choice between the two of them.
If they just silently wanted rid of Skripal he'd have "committed suicide", like Berezovsky.
(Alanbrooke)
anyway this photo from Slugger made me laugh
https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/08/30/do-we-deserve-better/
That's very funny!
Can you see a path to either outcome, given the timescales involved?
The illogic of their possession and use is of course entirely logical and has kept Europe mostly at peace for nearly 75 years.
To accept and understand the well-researched horror of a nuclear exchange is to appreciate how nuclear weapons can be possessed but must never be used.
Me: what do you want for tea ?
Her: oh anything I dont really care
later
Her again : why did you cook lamb ? I wanted fish
It would be easier to live with the panel of professional masterchef sometimes
- What kind of Brexit do you want?
- Anything would be better than being in the EU!
later
- You traitor! That's not what I voted for!
An election doesn't even need anyone to actually want one if the government loses a vote of confidence, which is conceivable in the building febrile atmosphere.
A referendum doesn't have to be statutory (cf the Australian referendum on gay marriage). It could be held at short notice in that way. In practice, the stick of a non-statutory referendum would probably be enough to get Parliament to chase the carrot of a statutory referendum.
Do I think either is particularly likely? No. But I'd say the combined chances are something like one in six.
I bet gay men don’t constantly remind each other of that time they got blind drunk five years ago either.
have you ever been to the cliffs of Moher ? Impressive.
This was on a weekend away - when we had gone away specifically because it was my birthday.
* Unless you're Donald Trump
after 5 years of buying birthday presents where she didnt know what she wanted and met any gift with s smile and "have you kept the receipt?". I told her if she didnt say what she wanted I wasnt buying anything. She didnt, so I didnt.
Only happened once.