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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed

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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,379
    Tuition fees is a total landmine for a Corbynista government. It's got the potential to piss off so many more people than is currently imagined if you game it through. It's supposedly going to be paid for by increasing corporation tax to 26%, raising £19bn, £13bn of which would go to tuition fees. Fine, until you realise that £19bn is the figure you get when you don't factor in any behavioural changes. The last time we had corp tax at 26% we raised in cash terms roughly what we do now. Now, that's not to say you wouldn't raise *some* money from it. The past figure was when we were still recovering from recession - but nothing like £19bn. And of course what's not factored in is a potential recession, or the potential harshening of the business climate and decrease in Britain's competitiveness due to Brexit. Even if Labour do manage to mitigate any damage from Brexit (a big if), and other measures don't impact on the corporation tax haul (almost impossible to imagine) there's a huge blackhole. So you'll have to delve into general taxation - which will infuriate those who have to pay it.

    Worse though, is that you'll really annoy Labour's core support among the 'jilted generation' of 20 to 35 year olds. Because they will have paid tuition fees, and if you don't write theirs off (not currently factored in to Labour plans) too, they'll be mighty pissed off as they'll end up paying twice over - despite their disillusionment at being the generation who are worse off than their elders being a huge reason for any Labour electoral Those currently losing £100 to £150 they can ill afford after rent out of every pay cheque aren't going to take kindly to being the highest taxed people in the country. I know, because that's me. I don't mind it too much at the minute - I don't mind paying tax for decent services, but I'll be damned if I'll be made poorer because Jezza doesn't understand economics or simple adding up.

    So what do you do? If you write them off it's a massive middle-class tax cut, at a time you're going to need every penny to reverse the austerity measures that are your cri de coeur, deal with any Brexit teething problems and boost infrastructure and reform the economy.

    It has the potential to be a 10p tax rate, the Lib Dem tuition fee fiasco and anger at austerity all rolled into one - all targeted at the group of voters who are currently driving
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    Foxy said:

    PBers may recall a couple of weeks ago there was a city list (would you be willing to move to X?) and I called it out as invalid due to the omission of York, which got rather more agreement than I was expecting.

    This rather backs up the PB consensus:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1031458127097606145

    There is a fairly congruent Counties map too. Unfairly harsh on East Leics and N Northants both of which are delightful. Sorry OGH, Beds is bottom!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1033235287294529537?s=19
    Why is Hampshire rated 11 but Berkrshire 40? The good and crap bits of both seem about equal to me.
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    Foxy said:

    PBers may recall a couple of weeks ago there was a city list (would you be willing to move to X?) and I called it out as invalid due to the omission of York, which got rather more agreement than I was expecting.

    This rather backs up the PB consensus:
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1031458127097606145

    There is a fairly congruent Counties map too. Unfairly harsh on East Leics and N Northants both of which are delightful. Sorry OGH, Beds is bottom!

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1033235287294529537?s=19
    Why is Hampshire rated 11 but Berkrshire 40? The good and crap bits of both seem about equal to me.
    It seems to have a high correlation to views about 'pretty countryside'.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. B2, not a Leicester fan?

    Just looking at the map. It certainly doesn't orient around London.

    Although my recollections of Leicester aren't particularly pleasant.
    They recently buried a child killer and terrorist in their cathedral with vast pomp and ceremony. I'm still rather exercised that in the eulogy he was described as 'a man of integrity,' which he certainly wasn't.
    alleged child killer

    (Although the legal risk to OGH is not large)
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,394
    @Charles

    Nothing 'alleged' about it. Nobody who has studied events with even a vaguely open mind doubts Richard had the Princes killed.

    That includes the one pro-Ricardian academic historian, Professor Emeritus David Baldwin of Nottingham, whose attempts to find an alternative explanation have the air of a defence lawyer arguing a truly hopeless case for a close friend.
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