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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will wi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds big decline in those thinking that LAB will win a majority
Looking forward the poll repeated a question last asked in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections – “What do you think is the most LIKELY result of the next election?”
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"The Guardian, possibly unwisely.....gets into Daily Mail offshore share holding:
"The irony of Campbell using the row to accuse a newspaper editor of bullying has not been lost on many."
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2013/oct/05/daily-mail-battle-labour-lord-rothermere?CMP=twt_gu"
An excellent article on the Mail debacle. The best i've read. The paragraph you've used to introduce it is so misleading as to its content I can only think you've spent too much time watching how the mail do it!
ST Poll is 26 pages as it polls the views of Mail readers as well.. Their VI is:
Cons: 55; LAB: 19; LD: 5; UKIP: 20 (weighted sample size is 273)
Would be interesting to see the same poll for other newspapers as well as those who do not read a paper but rely on BBC, ITV, C4, SKY etc news.
FPT:
YouGov:
Well/Badly (net)
Cameron: -12 (+7)
Miliband: -31 (-1)
If you could choose, which prefer at next GE:
Maj Con: 30 (+3)
Con-LD: 9 (-3)
Lab-LD: 12 (-2)
Maj Lab: 31 (+1)
Most likely result: (vs May)
Maj Con: 15 (+2)
Con-LD: 17 (+7)
Lab-LD: 17 (-2)
Maj Lab: 23 (-7)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/r4r40d1fp0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-041013.pdf
For perspective, in the same poll a year ago
Well/Badly (net)
Cameron: -24 (+1)
Miliband: -9 (+20)
From the ST YouGov polling it appears Miliband is the only winner from the conference season, increasing his support (from a very low base) among lefties.
Post-conference poll (today) compared with last pre-conf poll (15/09/13):
Con 33(nc)
Lab 38(nc)
Ukip 13(+1)
LD 11(+2)
Other changes from 15/09/13 to 06/10/13:
Govt app +1
Cam NC
Miliband +15
Clegg +5
Miliband with voting groups:
Lab +55
L10 +32
LD10 +26
But here's the current net well/badly among party supporters. Cameron still in banana republic territory:
Cam +88
Mili +41
Clegg +48
Well/Badly (net) -
Cameron: +19 (+31)
Miliband: -56 (-25)
Govt managing Economy (net) well: +16 (+29)
Best PM:
Cameron: 54 (+20)
Miliband: 11 (-14)
Most like to see at next GE:
Maj Con: 52 (+22)
Con-LD: 7 (-2)
Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
Maj Lab: 17 (-14)
Well/Badly:
DC: -12(+7); EdM: -31(-1); NC: -45(+3); Coalition: -25(+2)
If at the next election there is another hung
Parliament and both Labour and the
Conservatives only have enough seats to form a
government with the support of the Liberal
Democrats, which would you rather see?
LAB/LD: 42(0)
CON/LD: 40(+4)
DK: 19(-4)
"Most likely to see after the next election"
Rather shows the weakness in the theory of 'the wisdom of the crowd'. it has to be an objective crowd (not something to be found from among Mail readers)
Most like to see at next GE:
Maj Con: 52 (+22)
Con-LD: 7 (-2)
Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
Maj Lab: 17 (-14)
For example:
UKIP share:
ICM - 22nd Jan 2012: 2%
Populus - 22nd Jan 2012: 2%
ComRes - 29th Jan 2012: 2%
ComRes - 26th Feb 2012: 2%
Ipsos/MORI - 27th Feb 2012: 2%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The Telegraph front page is about one Conservative MP complaining about the BBC coverage being biased.A blatant attempt to cow the BBC down.It is usually the job of the Mail but now that it is alleged that the Mail is anti-BBC,the Telegraph takes up the mantle of harassing the BBC.
What do they want?That the BBC should not give air-time to the leader of the opposition when there is a major feud between him and a premier publication?Absolute nonsense.
What they think is most likeLY:
Maj Con: 22 (+7)
Con-LD: 20 (+3)
Lab-LD: 6 (-6)
Maj Lab: 17 (-14)
I'm not sure Mirror or Guardian readers would be any less wishful for their preferred party.
To enable us to understand your thought process, which newspapers do your friends/colleagues/acquaintances read? I find that mine read an eclectic mix ranging from the Sun/Star/Mirror though the mid market press to the Times and FT.
It's almost frightening how things can change so quickly.
Net support:
>2yr Unemployed, work or lose benefit: +47
Stop benefits for <25 Neets: +13
But a more mixed message on 'Help to Buy':
Net support: +3
Make it easier for ordinary people to buy home: +15
Make house prices rise: +58
Help Economy recover: -22
Risk housing bubble: +41
Said headmaster also writes for the Daily Mail......
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24417085
However, I am minded to agree with you that the Telegraph story has holes. There was not much that the Conservatives or Lib Dems could say about this, besides what was already said (very well) by Clegg and Cameron.
But the story did not deserve the prominence it got. This has probably got less to do with a pro-Labour bias within the BBC, but more with an anti-Mail bias.
"Adam Afriyie pushes for vote on EU referendum before the election
Backbencher undermines David Cameron's proposed timetable, suggesting the public does not believe Tories will stick to it.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/06/adam-afriyie-eu-vote-referendum-before-election?CMP=twt_fd
The bill's sponsor more or less accuses him of wrecking:
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2013/10/james-wharton-mp-why-adam-afriyie-is-wrong-my-referendum-bill-must-not-be-amended.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2446209/How-Im-going-force-PM-hold-referendum-Europe-NOW-An-incendiary-intervention-Euro-vote-leading-Cameron-rebel-Adam-Afriyie.html
The Mail are hedging their bets describing him as 'millionaire' Adam Afriyie......
I'm very disappointed in him - he had great potential and has made a total narcissistic pillock of himself.
I'd be interested to know if there's been any scientific polling on the credence given to newspaper reports. From my own anecdotal evidence, when you ask people if they really believe some of the stories in the press, they all seem very cynical. But they tend to believe stories they want to be true, despite the cynicism. It's a sort of wishful reinforcement of their own views.
That may all pander to prejudice but there's a "it's my prejudice" sort of attitude.
If a Labour supporter reads a story about Tories eating babies, he'll want to believe it despite all the holes in it (and vice versa).
Put on the spot, a Tory Mail reader may well think the Mail went too far (and most do) but wouldn't it be nice if Ralph had been plotting British genocide in his posh pad.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/scottish-independence-warning-over-scots-regiments-1-3128366
Remind me, which country do the Irish Guards serve?
These things are all perception. For one thing, it is very difficult for one person to watch all the output.
O/t: absolute chaos in Korea, from the sounds of it ...
Prescott is going on about it in the Sunday Mirror:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-ed-miliband-daily-2342815
Either Miliband forces an apology (unlikely, at best) or he'd be better letting it drop - and I'm not sure Campbell tweeting away like a demented 'disgusted of Tunbridge Wells'.....is helping....
The Telegraph story is hilarious, but it does send out a clear message that a section of the Conservative party wants to exercise control over BBC news output. It's all rather Stalinist.
The righties seem to be anti-everyone who doesnt agree with their point of view and spin like hell to the point that most reading them do so for entertainment rather than enlightenment.
And this: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10358461/Carbon-tax-too-expensive-says-industry.html
we begin to see what a mess we have got ourselves into with carbon taxes and subsidised green energy. I think there is a real opportunity here for the tories (the other parties are completely wedded to it) to break with the consensus. Osborne hinted at it at Conference when he said that it was not necessary for the UK to be in the vanguard in these areas.
A tory policy that achieves cuts (or at least reduced increases) in energy bills by scaling back the subsidies quite aggressively would be very popular. I would not be surprised to see it be especially popular with UKIP supporters. It would also place an uncomfortable spotlight on the role the Ed played into getting us into this mess.
It will be difficult to do much this side of the election given the Lib Dem approach but I would be surprised if this was not a major plank of the tory election campaign.
SO,
"You only have to compare views on welfare with the reality to see most people believe what the papers tell them."
That might be the other way round - the news reflecting the public's views in this case. You meet ten people on benefits, nine are honest and really want jobs, but the one you remember is the one who is taking the piss.
I should repeat before one of the usual suspects pipes up, that I like the BBC. I don't mind paying the licence fee, which is blooming good value. That does not mean, as some leftists think, that the BBC is immune from criticism.
Should Scots vote for independence then the historic Scottish regiments should go with them.
- if they don't sue having threatened, they look like they implicitly accept it's true
- if they do sue they will be accused of being more interested in their reputation than they ever were in patients
- Open goal for Hunt to say he's concentrating on patients rather than petty party politics
- If the sue and win, as well as Labour's priorities looking questionable, all the horror stories in the background will be dredged up again
- if they sue and lose, Labour's reputation on he NHS has gone forever
Burnham should clearly be shuffled out as he is increasingly a liability and, at any other time surely would be. But this is a parliament with less shuffling on either side than I can ever remember and the more the tories call for him to go, the less likely it is as Ed doesn't want to seen to be pushed into it. So he'll stay and continue to do damage.
Are you saying that the Miliband story merited the prominence it got on the BBC and other outlets?
so far we've "PB Tories" demonised as Stalinists and Marxists. I think our Lefties have been reading too much Daily Mail recently.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Division
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Regiment_of_Scotland
All of whom are HQ'd in either Scotland, Germany, or in one case, Canterbury (which will move to Scotland after an FI deployment). It would make sense for these to be ceded to Scotland post-independence, especially as their recruitment areas are in Scotland, and the historical links.
It is possible that there are more regiments based in Scotland than Scotland will need post-independence. Since the SNP's military policy seems rather nebulous, who knows?
Although it should be noted that geographical designations and regiment hq's do not always correlate.
The example of the Republic of Ireland be noted as all of the historic Irish regiments within the Republic left the orbit of the British army.
Mail readers on Miliband:
Miliband's politics similar to his fathers: (vs OA)
Yes: 31 (+16)
No: 41 (-9)
Given Mail's claims & Miliband's response do you think about Miliband
More positively: 15 (-11)
More negatively: 7 (-2)
No diff - already +ve: 10 (-6)
No diff - already -ve: 59 (-17)
Not sure Dacre will lose any sleep when nearly a third of his readers view Ed as a Marxist....
Proof, please. As Tim would say, let's have proof not anecdote, that Sky and Channel 4 treated the story with the same prominence as the BBC.
If the polls are correct what seems to have happened is what some of us thought might - Ed has seen his ratings improve among Labour-leaners; ie, the people whose votes he needs to get to win in 2015. It has passed everyone else by,
I also remember some, pre-conference season, speculating about possible one-off Tory leads in YGs in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference. That hasn't happened either.
More negatively: 7 (+2)
No diff - already +ve: 10 (-6)
No diff - already -ve: 59 (+17)
Haven't listened to/watch the F1 (will watch the highlights) but from what I've gathered it sounds like a fairly interesting race.
Post-race analysis will be after the highlights.
The above is evidence, not proof. Especially as the tweets are days after the story broke. No-one is claiming that other media organisations did not cover the story.
And now you're posting videos. Oh dear.
a mass movement with one member.
The Royal Regiment of Fiji Scotland* will be part of the SDF Orbat: The First Battalion Scots Guards will, most likely, not. [Bourbon France had their own, dontchya know.] Apart from the latter the [battalion] formations are to be undermanned and will no longer remain at full fighting-strength.**
What little we know about the furtive SDF is that they will comprise of two BattleGroups (based around the RRS and RSDG). Whether these will be manned by Scots, Fijians or Punjabis we will wait and see....
* Hat-tip T.D..
** Structural changes up-and-until 2015.
And I don't need to prove anything: down below I said it was a matter of perception as few, if any, of us could watch and measure all the output. You were the one making that particular claim.
The only party that seems likely to pursue a policy of cheap energy is UKIP. I'm expecting it to be a good retail offer for them in 2015: "Vote UKIP for lower utility bills!"
Bet Andy wishes he was related to Ed - well in a Ed and his father way not Ed and David way...
I mean Oxford PPE Ed, Grand Scion of the UK Establishment and bar, Nabob of Islington, Lord of the Block Vote might just have a few problems in that area himself.
Don't they have mirrors in the Labour Party ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8847123/EU-referendum-how-the-MPs-voted.html
It's either that or desperation, and I don't think the situation warrants desperation yet.
Hunt may be in more trouble than it seems.
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/04/theyll-turn-great-britain-into-little-britain/
He's doomed.
http://www.ukip.org/images/PDFs/keeping-the-lights-on.pdf
http://youtu.be/sQPm528T4Fs
I assumed that L10 and LD10 are the biggest components of Lnow. If they are both in the 25-35 range, how come the overall Lnow rating is at +55? What am I missing?
The questions asked what would they like to see, not what they expect to see
RT @LabourHistory: Today in 2007 Gordon Brown announced that he would not call an early general election: news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7031749.s…