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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How To End Illegal Immigration
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How To End Illegal Immigration
OK, call me Amerocentric, but this video is really all about the US and illegal immigration. Specifically, in the US more than 3% of people are illegal immigrants, more than twice the level of the UK, four times that of Switzerland, and something absurd relative to Norway. Now, the US has poor people on its Southern border – but probably fewer than Europe has on its. Mexico is as rich as Turkey, and a lot richer than – for example – Ukraine. So why do so many people head to the US? And what can the government do about it?
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However, in fact immigration controls are about fucking over brown people, so obviously the people who support them aren't going to want a policy of giving visas to brown people to help you arrest white people.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-what-do-cohens-plea-and-manaforts-verdict-mean-for-trump/?ex_cid=story-twitter
The basic gist is that there't nothing there that would *directly* threaten our "Trump to make it to 2020" bets, but it's opened up a lot of potential lines of attack that might.
In the US, the ICE pursuit of long term undocumented residents with jobs and established families - in many respects very similar to the Windrush migrants - is pretty strong evidence for this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/21/financial-services-paper-to-be-published-on-no-deal-brexit
https://twitter.com/attn/status/1030195530494693376
I’m not interested in the who’s to blame side, so much as the potential practical effects. Of course it’s still possible to sort this kind of stuff out, but we’re getting very close to the date on which the quite plausible possibility of a no deal Brexit happens.
They were much more open minded on Trump's chances than other pundits, and they called the Dem hammering in 2016 absolutely right.
There's a sort of drip, drip, drip right now of news that can only erode the credibility of Trump in the eyes of centrist voters. Trump desperately needs the Dems to pick someone stupid. Which they may well do.
Or it may be President Hickenlooper.
And in any event, who is setting the ‘targets’, and to what end ?
The case for saying that some of the rather controversial consequences of May’s immigration policies were to some extent unintended is a great deal easier to make than for Trump’s.
Meanwhile the Democrats show every sign of having learned nothing from last time, they’ll probably run someone who’ll pile up votes in NY and LA, but forget about the large country in between them.
It’s not as though people haven’t been complaining about the unreasonable behaviour of the EU ever since we held the referendum...
Saw on the news last night that, as well as knocking five noughts off the currency, Maduro decided the way to fight hyperinflation was a 3,000% pay rise.
But the employed are a small minority now. So they'll have 'lots' of cash, whilst the majority don't, and prices spike even more, which may be affordable for those in work, but will be even worse for those (the large majority) not.
A cup of coffee is now 25 bolivars. But yesterday the cash withdrawal limit was 10.
I'm quite skinny, but even I would struggle to survive on two-fifths of a coffee a day.
Edited extra bit: source for the coffee thingummyjig: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45262525
We’ve done the work
They haven’t
Which is basically sawing off our own legs in the negotiating process.
You DO the work. You DO contingency planning with the affected industries to mitigate the identified risks. You DO identify how this also fucks over the EU. You share with the heads of state of the EU countries where they get fucked over too.
You DON'T shout just our exposure from the tree-tops.
Well, not unless you are trying to provide cover for the world's shittiest Brexit deal.
Betfair have Vettel at 2.44, Hamilton at 2.9 and everyone else longer than 10, clearly the money there isn’t expecting anything out of the ordinary.
It's funny how much grief it has given her then, isn't it? And the number of illegals in the UK probably runs to the low hundreds of thousands, not 300. Has it reduced demand? Almost certainly. Has it solved the problem? Nope.
Malcolm Turnbull: PM battles cabinet rebellion over leadership
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-45266718
It's quite astonishing to reflect that John Howard was Prime Minister for a decade, and in roughly the same length of time since his defeat they've had no fewer than five Prime Ministers (although that's counting Kevin Rudd twice, of course).
It's not even just in government as the Opposition leaders have been changing with monotonous regularity as well.
The other problem this creates is that it drives the illegals underground where they get exploited as sex workers or modern day slaves in appalling conditions. We have taken some steps to incentivise such slaves to report their "employers" but so far this seems to have limited success. Prosecutions are rare. We also have problems with the "self employed", such as the people who clean your car or make deliveries. Proving that they even have an employer is trickier.
I completely agree the American approach is completely silly but I don't agree there are easy answers either.
I am sure that the CJE would consider such a complaint completely objectively and impartially.
It is surprising that anyone still believes being a part of this racket is a good thing.
That said, it is vital that EU citizens have their status guaranteed under British law so they can have the protection of real courts (whatever the shortcomings of our legal system).
As the BBC somewhat naughtily points out these were regarded as "definitive" by the Scottish Government back in 2010 when they showed Scotland to be in a better fiscal position than rUK. I think it would be fair to say that they are somewhat more equivocal these days. With the relatively low oil price over the last fiscal year they are unlikely to make happy reading.
What the GERS figures show is the real challenge facing the Scottish government. That challenge is to help build a viable economy that is indeed capable of standing on its own two feet and giving its citizens a reasonable standard of living. But it's much more fun to go on marches.
https://tinyurl.com/lndzjcl
A medical charity has launched a campaign against government guidance that “makes border guards of doctors” by allowing the Home Office to access details of undocumented migrants who seek NHS treatment.
Doctors of the World runs clinics for undocumented migrants, victims of trafficking and asylum seekers. It has assisted numerous patients, some pregnant and some with cancer, who are afraid of accessing NHS healthcare due to concerns that a visit to the doctor could lead to deportation.
The organisation has joined forces with the human rights charity Liberty and the National Aids Trust to launch a petition aimed at reversing a data-sharing policy between the NHS and the Home Office implemented this year. They want the government to “stop using NHS patients’ personal information to carry out immigration enforcement”.
It’s just going to piss off the “white” community, and strengthen support for Trump.
Bloody identity politics.
By playing the game the way we have we have made ourselves supplicants. It has been astonishingly inept.
If it's to make things difficult for a country leaving the EU, it seems to be working reasonably well (aided by the incompetence of May).
Now if he was entirely well this could no doubt all be sorted out - various offices will supply birth certificate, record of name change, etc., and an interview with the passport authorities will probably resolve the issue about his parents' passport numbers etc. But he's demoralised and scared and just ekes out a life in B&Bs where the evidence isn't required and gets by with money from the family. It's awful and it's entirely irrelevant to the immigration issue. Obviously you could say it's his "fault", but the point is that the system - like many sysems in Britain - only really works if you're both mentally healthy and well-documented, otherwise you fall into one damn hole after another.
The problem was of incompetent use of a blunt tool.
It is why it was fuckwittery of the highest order to agree the back-stop position on Ireland. They will act in bad faith on that too. Leaving May's successor with an absolute shit-storm to have to deal with.
The EU's own desired sequence is demented too. Must sort the Irish border before a trade deal. But without a trade deal the nature of the border cannot be known.
We should turn around right at the end and say we’ll not sign anything with the NI backstop in it and that we have no intention of implementing anything but an electronic border in Ireland. Then watch Junker and Varakdar have the mother of all arguments about it.
https://www.citymetric.com/horizons/labour-and-capital-are-one-sodor-economics-and-politics-thomas-tank-engine-4149
And yet despite stagnant living standards the people/engines of Sodor appear content. Indeed it is unclear if they get paid at all – instead they seek meaning and joy in a Stakhanovite desire to be “really useful engines”. The great trick of Sir Topham is to employ engines who essentially evoke the image of the New Soviet man in the service of a proto-capitalist, semi-feudal enterprise.
The GOP primary electorate will likely ensure Trump or no Trump the Republican candidate is also a populist and the issue of the wall and illegal immigration will not have gone away by then
Bit ballsy of the opposition trot out the cliche government in chaos line when they do the same thing.
Then, when complaints are made, ferocious pressure is brought to bear on the complainant to drop it. In my case, one so-called independent assessor told me that the criminal law didn't apply to the people I was complaining about, that it was stupid of me to expect that they apply systems that work or to be told the truth. Despite a formal complaint about this bullying by her to the then Secretary of State concerned, she is still in post.
When you sup with the devil, you should carry a long spoon. For once, Trump forgot that in his dealings with lawyers.
https://twitter.com/fozmeadows/status/1027667863169990656
The time for ID cards has come. Is Switzerland unfree for having them?
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-21/michael-cohen-s-guilty-plea-puts-president-trump-in-perilous-spot?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=politics&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-politics
https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/1031639495345549315
I give it about 1% chance at best.
https://twitter.com/fozmeadows/status/1027680940171001856
And yet he's just obviously British - the most casual interview about where he grew up and what's happened would convince anyone, and any number of family members would swear oaths to that effect. The civil servants aren't horrible, but they politely say unfortunately they have to follow procedures to prevent illegal immigration. The letting agents are just scared - "I can see he's British but I can't risk my job by not having an audit of having checked his passport etc." He lost his bank card with his passport and his bank refuses to let him have another unless he produces a passport, so although he has savings he has no access to them.
FFS.
"Sorry, but however out of touch or arthritic they may be, Conservative party members simply could not pick a leader more disastrous than the one we’ve got already."
You wanna bet?
As an MP I encountered other cases like my relative's, though less drastic ones. Basically everything works fine if you're educated, fluent, documented and confident, and politicians who are all of those things sometimes make the mistake of thinking everyone else is too. I'd be fine if I lost my passport or even my home - I'd know exactly what to do and would set about it briskly. But not everyone is that fortunate in their background.
TMay might as well stand outside 10 Downing Street this morning and issue one of those heartfelt apologies to the thousands of people who will have their worlds turned upside down by the mismanagement of working out who can stay and who must go.
Not just a British problem either, many other countries have similar issues.
Hope your relative can get himself sorted out.
Switzerland and Denmark are both smaller countries. Are France and Germany any worse than us?
Him out before end of 1st term is a value trading bet in my eyes.
I get exactly the same problem all the time in teaching - less often as I get more skilful at manipulating my superiors, admittedly, but it's a serious problem that I've seen really compromise a child's education.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1032180285339848704
Figures out in recent days have indicated a rise in the sale of so-called dumb phones (ie for making and receiving calls only) for the first time in quite a while.