Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Farage doesn’t take part in the debates then it will onl

2

Comments

  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    AndyJS said:

    Grandiose said:

    AndyJS said:

    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 5s

    Labour 5% lead in post conf Opinium/Observer poll. Lab 36 n/c, Tories 31 (+2) Ukip 15 (-2), Lib Dems 7.

    Taken immediately after Tory conf.

    LD share down 16 percentage points since 2010 but Labour only up 6.
    (Up 7, I think, from 29.1%.) Similarly UKIP up 12(?) points, Conservatives down 5 points.
    Opinion polls are always for GB excl. NI. The GB result in 2010 was Con 36.9%, Lab 29.7%, LD 23.6%, UKIP 3.3%.
    Far enough - the difference isn't significant anyway. So Cons down six, UKIP up 12.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SeanT said:

    So Ed's ratings have gone from minus 29 to minus 21

    Dave's ratings have gone from minus 17 to minus 10

    What's the betting the Conference Season - and all the kerfuffle surrounding it, from McBride to Miliband-v-Mail - ends up doing nothing at all to the polls. And within a fortnight we are at Status Quo Ante. Gotta be a strong chance.

    IIRC this is exactly what happened last year, despite Miliband's amazing "One Nation" speech.

    It cannot be emphasized enough: no one normal cares, and even if they care, they don't believe what they hear.
    Almost nothing really matters. The only things to matter since GE2010 are the election of Ed, the omnishambles budget and (if it is happening) the current economic turnaround. PB is obliged to believe otherwise, or it would have nothing to talk about.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    "The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party.

    It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling continues to be very strong. It is also doing very well in council by-elections picking up the odd seat and chalking up 20-25% vote shares."


    That analysis is debatable but what isn't is that more than a few tories believed it and Farage won't have to put on many more percent from 2010 to place Cameron in deep trouble.

    I used to think Mr Cameron would face a leadership challenge after a bad result at the 2014 EU/local elections, but I think the Scottish Referendum scuppers that.

    A Conservative Party leadership challenge would include an offer of a pre-May 2015 EU referendum, which would be likely to have an effect on the September 2014 Scottish Referendum.

    I don't think any Conservative MP would want to do that, so I think Mr Cameron will be with us at the next general election. Mr Clegg might still get the boot though.

  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    OK bit off topic,maybe one for the Nighthawks,but,
    Decided to celebrate my upcoming Winter fuel allowance,first and maybe last payment,and go out and spend it,before I get it. Anything to get the economy going! Thats the kind of guy I am.
    First off trip to Pharmacy,and collect free prescription,first time for free,WOW.
    Next the 555 bus service,Lancaster to Keswick,an amazing,and very,very popular bus route,present card,ping,you are on. Free again.
    I watched all the people getting on to the bus service,and in common with my few other bus trips,almost everyone was on a free pass.
    These bus routes which help a few paying passengers would not be viable without the free passes(Presumably paid by some government subsidy).
    Downside,it took 4 hours return trip,and although it was free,I will take the Gas Guzzler if I realy want to do anything in a hurry.

    Summary,yes I enjoy the free prescriptions,the bus pass is fun,I would not miss either,but trust me,there are a huge number of voters who use their bus pass,and enjoy their WFA. Another downside,Mrs jayfdee has to wait another 5 years for hers.
    Oh well crank up the Gas Guzzler.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Mick_Pork said:

    "The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party.

    It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling continues to be very strong. It is also doing very well in council by-elections picking up the odd seat and chalking up 20-25% vote shares."


    That analysis is debatable but what isn't is that more than a few tories believed it and Farage won't have to put on many more percent from 2010 to place Cameron in deep trouble.

    I used to think Mr Cameron would face a leadership challenge after a bad result at the 2014 EU/local elections, but I think the Scottish Referendum scuppers that.

    A Conservative Party leadership challenge would include an offer of a pre-May 2015 EU referendum, which would be likely to have an effect on the September 2014 Scottish Referendum.

    I don't think any Conservative MP would want to do that, so I think Mr Cameron will be with us at the next general election. Mr Clegg might still get the boot though.

    There's nobody obvious to replace him and despite Cameron's own backbenchers fondness for continuing to humiliate him in commons votes like the EU, boundary changes and Syria, those angry backbenchers aren't about to replace him before 2015.

    That's not to say the tory party couldn't go bananas over Europe again before 2015, but something would have to kick it all off again to have a return to Cammie as John Major like we saw not too long ago. I find it somewhat difficult to believe his new Cast Iron IN/OUT referendum is going to go perfectly smoothly and unremarked on between now and election day for a start.

    Clegg seems determined to stay. (with the obvious caveat that statements saying anything less than that would be pounced on by the media) I have my doubts. Even if he is determined to stay, that's not to say all those Lib Dem MPs staring extinction in the face in 2015 under a toxic Clegg will be so happy with that notion. None of Clegg's possible replacements want to take over from Clegg to become the coalition crap magnet this far out from the election. Closer in that is likely to change and the 'helpful' briefings about Clegg to the press will start.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Financier said:

    Avery

    I think you're wrong to exclude oil & gas from the trade and other economic numbers.

    The existence of North Sea Oil had a knock on effect on other parts of the economy, particularly manufacturing:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

    What is worthy of investigation is why the rundown of North Sea Oil during the last decade did not result in a corresponding shift back towards manufacturing in the UK.

    Perhaps because both Labour and the Conservatives thought the economy could be built upon government spending, financial services, rising house prices and personal consumption.

    In general manufacturing did not return to the UK as we were still outpriced and in fact we actually closed some manufacturing plant which was exported to set up new businesses in BRIC countries.

    Nor did it get a £100bn subsidy evey year as government spending and household consumption received or a mass bailout as financial services did.
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060
    I like the bookshelves.

    But I sense your envy driven insecurity Sean.

    Being unable to buy the house four doors down from you must give you a terrible sense of failure.


  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    edited October 2013
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060




    Excellent value. I'll take two.
  • Options
    Ishmael_X said:



    Almost nothing really matters. The only things to matter since GE2010 are the election of Ed, the omnishambles budget and (if it is happening) the current economic turnaround. PB is obliged to believe otherwise, or it would have nothing to talk about.

    If that budget turns out to be the most significant thing of this government then the Tories will have gotten off extremely lightly. The Winter of Discontent and Black Wednesday destroyed the party in power and haunted their successors for decades. I don't see some confusion about a tax on heated food having quite the same impact.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Kevin, apologies for the prolonged wait for a reply, as I'd disappeared before you posed your question.

    Several grounds:
    Proven high percentage in a Geneal Election
    Present status as Deputy Prime Minister
    Entirely realistic possibility of a Hung Parliament which would make it realistic for him to remain in government (off-chance of having the deciding say on which larger party forms the government)

    Personally, I wouldn't be irked if Clegg were kicked overboard, however.
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Won't someone think of the children?

    Observer front page - "Mail ‘setting poor example to children’ says top head" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/TICVlUa7vk
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Financier said:

    Avery

    I think you're wrong to exclude oil & gas from the trade and other economic numbers.

    The existence of North Sea Oil had a knock on effect on other parts of the economy, particularly manufacturing:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

    What is worthy of investigation is why the rundown of North Sea Oil during the last decade did not result in a corresponding shift back towards manufacturing in the UK.

    Perhaps because both Labour and the Conservatives thought the economy could be built upon government spending, financial services, rising house prices and personal consumption.

    In general manufacturing did not return to the UK as we were still outpriced and in fact we actually closed some manufacturing plant which was exported to set up new businesses in BRIC countries.

    Nor did it get a £100bn subsidy evey year as government spending and household consumption received or a mass bailout as financial services did.
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060
    I like the bookshelves.

    But I sense your envy driven insecurity Sean.

    Being unable to buy the house four doors down from you must give you a terrible sense of failure.


    Sure I'd like to buy it. If only it was £11m not £12m! Bastards adding that extra million which just takes it out of my reach,

    For all those windows it's a bit dark. When I was looking for a house my two criteria were lots of light and no upvc. Oh, and under 60 grand.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    "The big issue is what they do with Nigel Farage. His party holds no seats at Westminster though it looks set to do very well at Euro2014 and could, indeed, come out as top party.

    It has said that it will be contesting all seats and its polling continues to be very strong. It is also doing very well in council by-elections picking up the odd seat and chalking up 20-25% vote shares."


    That analysis is debatable but what isn't is that more than a few tories believed it and Farage won't have to put on many more percent from 2010 to place Cameron in deep trouble.

    I used to think Mr Cameron would face a leadership challenge after a bad result at the 2014 EU/local elections, but I think the Scottish Referendum scuppers that.

    A Conservative Party leadership challenge would include an offer of a pre-May 2015 EU referendum, which would be likely to have an effect on the September 2014 Scottish Referendum.

    I don't think any Conservative MP would want to do that, so I think Mr Cameron will be with us at the next general election. Mr Clegg might still get the boot though.

    There's nobody obvious to replace him and despite Cameron's own backbenchers fondness for continuing to humiliate him in commons votes like the EU, boundary changes and Syria, those angry backbenchers aren't about to replace him before 2015.

    That's not to say the tory party couldn't go bananas over Europe again before 2015, but something would have to kick it all off again to have a return to Cammie as John Major like we saw not too long ago. I find it somewhat difficult to believe his new Cast Iron IN/OUT referendum is going to go perfectly smoothly and unremarked on between now and election day for a start.
    Mr Afriye did say a poor result at the 2014 EU elections would indicate the need for a pre-GE2015 EU referendum, but I think he'll be talked out of it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10309785/Tory-MP-calls-for-EU-referendum-now-saying-public-do-not-trust-Cameron.html
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SeanT said:

    £12 million? no clearer evidence that in London there are plenty of people with more money than sense.

    Whoever is selling and getting out is the clever one.

    SeanT said:

    Financier said:

    Avery

    I think you're wrong to exclude oil & gas from the trade and other economic numbers.

    The existence of North Sea Oil had a knock on effect on other parts of the economy, particularly manufacturing:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

    What is worthy of investigation is why the rundown of North Sea Oil during the last decade did not result in a corresponding shift back towards manufacturing in the UK.

    Perhaps because both Labour and the Conservatives thought the economy could be built upon government spending, financial services, rising house prices and personal consumption.

    In general manufacturing did not return to the UK as we were still outpriced and in fact we actually closed some manufacturing plant which was exported to set up new businesses in BRIC countries.

    Nor did it get a £100bn subsidy evey year as government spending and household consumption received or a mass bailout as financial services did.
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060
    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.
    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Financier said:

    Avery

    I think you're wrong to exclude oil & gas from the trade and other economic numbers.

    The existence of North Sea Oil had a knock on effect on other parts of the economy, particularly manufacturing:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

    What is worthy of investigation is why the rundown of North Sea Oil during the last decade did not result in a corresponding shift back towards manufacturing in the UK.

    Perhaps because both Labour and the Conservatives thought the economy could be built upon government spending, financial services, rising house prices and personal consumption.

    In general manufacturing did not return to the UK as we were still outpriced and in fact we actually closed some manufacturing plant which was exported to set up new businesses in BRIC countries.

    Nor did it get a £100bn subsidy evey year as government spending and household consumption received or a mass bailout as financial services did.
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060
    I like the bookshelves.

    But I sense your envy driven insecurity Sean.

    Being unable to buy the house four doors down from you must give you a terrible sense of failure.


    Sure I'd like to buy it. If only it was £11m not £12m! Bastards adding that extra million which just takes it out of my reach,
    By comparison this place could probably be had for £3m:

    http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=wentworth+woodhouse+&v_t=sb_uk

    It was sold for £1.5m in 1999 and the country house sector has tracked the general housing market being less influenced by dubious foreign money etc.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Miss Carola, I'd suggest the latest video by Rihanna is a worse example.

    I wonder if that'd be covered by the deranged porn filter idea.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel

    jayfdee said:

    OK bit off topic,maybe one for the Nighthawks,but,
    Decided to celebrate my upcoming Winter fuel allowance,first and maybe last payment,and go out and spend it,before I get it. Anything to get the economy going! Thats the kind of guy I am.
    First off trip to Pharmacy,and collect free prescription,first time for free,WOW.
    Next the 555 bus service,Lancaster to Keswick,an amazing,and very,very popular bus route,present card,ping,you are on. Free again.
    I watched all the people getting on to the bus service,and in common with my few other bus trips,almost everyone was on a free pass.
    These bus routes which help a few paying passengers would not be viable without the free passes(Presumably paid by some government subsidy).
    Downside,it took 4 hours return trip,and although it was free,I will take the Gas Guzzler if I realy want to do anything in a hurry.

    Summary,yes I enjoy the free prescriptions,the bus pass is fun,I would not miss either,but trust me,there are a huge number of voters who use their bus pass,and enjoy their WFA. Another downside,Mrs jayfdee has to wait another 5 years for hers.
    Oh well crank up the Gas Guzzler.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,534
    edited October 2013

    Miss Carola, I'd suggest the latest video by Rihanna is a worse example.

    I wonder if that'd be covered by the deranged porn filter idea.

    Do you have a link to the latest Rihanna video?

    So I can make an evaluation on its musical merits.

    For my role of PB's Music Laureate.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    By comparison this place could probably be had for £3m:

    http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=wentworth+woodhouse+&v_t=sb_uk

    It was sold for £1.5m in 1999 and the country house sector has tracked the general housing market being less influenced by dubious foreign money etc.

    Reasonably interesting back-story on that house and the 1999 purchase:
    http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/wentworth-woodhouse-newbold-family-bagged-mansion-for-just-1-5m-1-3405863
  • Options

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Financier said:

    Avery

    I think you're wrong to exclude oil & gas from the trade and other economic numbers.

    The existence of North Sea Oil had a knock on effect on other parts of the economy, particularly manufacturing:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

    What is worthy of investigation is why the rundown of North Sea Oil during the last decade did not result in a corresponding shift back towards manufacturing in the UK.

    Perhaps because both Labour and the Conservatives thought the economy could be built upon government spending, financial services, rising house prices and personal consumption.

    In general manufacturing did not return to the UK as we were still outpriced and in fact we actually closed some manufacturing plant which was exported to set up new businesses in BRIC countries.

    Nor did it get a £100bn subsidy evey year as government spending and household consumption received or a mass bailout as financial services did.
    Hey, I know you love London so much, especially my witterings about local property prices - now you can move here and join in. This house is on sale, literally four doors down from mine, on Delancey St; I overlook it from my bedroom window.

    It's got four beds, or maybe five at a push, and a small patio-cum-garden

    And it's a SNIP at £12,000,000

    http://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbsjrssts120060
    I like the bookshelves.

    But I sense your envy driven insecurity Sean.

    Being unable to buy the house four doors down from you must give you a terrible sense of failure.


    Sure I'd like to buy it. If only it was £11m not £12m! Bastards adding that extra million which just takes it out of my reach,
    By comparison this place could probably be had for £3m:

    http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=wentworth+woodhouse+&v_t=sb_uk

    It was sold for £1.5m in 1999 and the country house sector has tracked the general housing market being less influenced by dubious foreign money etc.
    There's only one problem with that, it's in Rotherham!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    By comparison this place could probably be had for £3m:

    http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=wentworth+woodhouse+&v_t=sb_uk

    It was sold for £1.5m in 1999 and the country house sector has tracked the general housing market being less influenced by dubious foreign money etc.

    Doubt it: came with a massive repairing liability. If Alex Hesketh managed to sell Easton Neston for £40m, then WW in good state is probably north of £50.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited October 2013

    Miss Carola, I'd suggest the latest video by Rihanna is a worse example.

    I wonder if that'd be covered by the deranged porn filter idea.

    Do you have a link to the latest Rihanna video?

    So I can make an evaluation on its musical merits.

    For my role of PB's Music Laureate.
    I'd like the link too, please. It's for a friend. Who was asking.

  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Mr Afriye did say a poor result at the 2014 EU elections would indicate the need for a pre-GE2015 EU referendum, but I think he'll be talked out of it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/10309785/Tory-MP-calls-for-EU-referendum-now-saying-public-do-not-trust-Cameron.html

    It's going to be a trifle difficult to have an EU election campaign and not talk about the Cast Iron IN/OUT referendum. However, Cameron will hardly be keen to have any more votes in the commons that have the possibility of humiliating him again, so he'll avoid that all costs.

    What tory backbench MPs do about it if Cammie has a less than stellar EU election remains to be seen, but they might look for some concessions and a hardening of the OUT position. Any EU referendum before 2015 is hugely unlikely. That always looked like pressure from Eurosceptics to try and force Cameron and the tory party further to the full blown OUT camp.

    With some success it has to be said.

    Gove and Hammond realised which way the wind is blowing.
    Michael Gove And Philip Hammond Both Say They Would Leave EU In Boost To Eurosceptics

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/05/12/gove-hammond-eu_n_3263382.html


  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't want to be liable for a dry-cleaning bill.

    In all seriousness, I skipped through it, and the bits I saw were pathetic and depressing rather than actually arousing. It's well over the top.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877
    Evening all :)

    You can come up with all sorts of criteria or qualifications to exclude one party or include another. Whatever you use, someone and their supporters will cry foul and (if they have the means) head off to the Courts.

    As a supporter of plural democracy, I incline toward hearing the maximum number of viewpoints but that's not practical. Incline toward the duopoly (which is supportable on a number of criteria) and the fact remains that at least a quarter and perhaps up to a third of those voting won't be included (let alone those not voting at all).

    In the US, it's easy where the duopoly captures 99% of the vote but here and elsewhere it's much harder. Only the Conservative or Labour Parties are in a position to either form or lead a Government but any of the Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists and Democratic Unionists COULD be a part of that Government in some form.


  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,534
    edited October 2013

    Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't want to be liable for a dry-cleaning bill.

    In all seriousness, I skipped through it, and the bits I saw were pathetic and depressing rather than actually arousing. It's well over the top.

    It's ok, I'm in a room with laminate flooring.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Eagles, if you really want to watch a music video featuring a singer in unladylike attire I recommend this one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRdo7WXTVoM
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    On Topic.

    :)
    HuffPost UK ‏@HuffPostUK 2h

    'Nigel Farage in the TV debates, could be a deal breaker for the main party leaders and would be unjustified' http://huff.to/1bI60ml
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. T, how old is she?

    [Incidentally, if you're wondering why the tweet/picture was taken down I believe it's standard pb policy to reduce bandwidth, and not part of Red Ed's war on capitalism].
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Pork, it poses an interesting (in a 'the debates are still bloody stupid' sort of way) question. Suppose one or more of the debate hosts invites on Farage in contravention of the agreed format. Do the established chaps back out? It'd be entirely right and proper, but still look rather craven.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehcVomMexkY&feature=c4-overview&list=UU2xskkQVFEpLcGFnNSLQY0A

    nearly 20 million views in a couple of days would suggest that Ms Rhianna may be in the running to be SeanTs new neighbour, though possibly she may prefer something a bit more bling.

    As the Ulster farmer wisely observed "get your kit on, luv!"

    Mr. Eagles, I wouldn't want to be liable for a dry-cleaning bill.

    In all seriousness, I skipped through it, and the bits I saw were pathetic and depressing rather than actually arousing. It's well over the top.

  • Options
    Charles said:



    By comparison this place could probably be had for £3m:

    http://search.aol.co.uk/aol/image?q=wentworth+woodhouse+&v_t=sb_uk

    It was sold for £1.5m in 1999 and the country house sector has tracked the general housing market being less influenced by dubious foreign money etc.

    Doubt it: came with a massive repairing liability. If Alex Hesketh managed to sell Easton Neston for £40m, then WW in good state is probably north of £50.
    It probably had a negative value when it was bought.

    But it looks like the owners have come up with a good money making scheme:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2106732/Owners-Wentworth-Wordhouse-stately-home-make-100m-insurance-claim-building-sinks-ground.html

    You wouldn't fancy it would you Charles ? It seems like the sort of place you were born for.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    andy_s_64 ‏@andy_s_64 5h

    Oh dear. Wet meself. Just the title.. UKIP: Godfrey Bloom claims Nigel Farage has lost touch http://bit.ly/1bI2mZC (via @gdnpoliticswire)
    *chortle*

    Just what Farage needs. An idiot like Bloom repeatedly making a fool if himself. :)
  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.


    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel




    jayfdee said:

    OK bit off topic,maybe one for the Nighthawks,but,
    Decided to celebrate my upcoming Winter fuel allowance,first and maybe last payment,and go out and spend it,before I get it. Anything to get the economy going! Thats the kind of guy I am.
    First off trip to Pharmacy,and collect free prescription,first time for free,WOW.
    Next the 555 bus service,Lancaster to Keswick,an amazing,and very,very popular bus route,present card,ping,you are on. Free again.
    I watched all the people getting on to the bus service,and in common with my few other bus trips,almost everyone was on a free pass.
    These bus routes which help a few paying passengers would not be viable without the free passes(Presumably paid by some government subsidy).
    Downside,it took 4 hours return trip,and although it was free,I will take the Gas Guzzler if I realy want to do anything in a hurry.

    Summary,yes I enjoy the free prescriptions,the bus pass is fun,I would not miss either,but trust me,there are a huge number of voters who use their bus pass,and enjoy their WFA. Another downside,Mrs jayfdee has to wait another 5 years for hers.
    Oh well crank up the Gas Guzzler.

    Yes ,thanks,did not realise it was a local initiative,but still sure it will receive some national funding somehow.
    There is a book "Walks from the 555",it is very popular.
    My point was the grey vote,and how it has been bought.

  • Options
    SeanT said:

    I have discovered my British daughter is a capitalist. She has started a sale, and her living room window is her shop window.

    I draw the attention of pb bargain hunters to the scooby doo toy which "now moves arms and legs", which is "perfect for fans"; and of course the kitten, on sale at "1p".

    sean thomas knox

    @thomasknox

    My daughter is selling some of her toys. This is her stock, on sale in the window. pic.twitter.com/jDWTsmjewm

    Business plan for your daughter:

    1) Wait until the house up the street is bought by dubious Russians
    2) Increase toy sale prices by a few million percent
    3) Get rich
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. T, she sounds like a wise capitalist already.

    Alas, kittens aren't my cup of tea.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    I thought the polls were showing the abolitionists would win.

    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    Mr. Pork, it poses an interesting (in a 'the debates are still bloody stupid' sort of way) question. Suppose one or more of the debate hosts invites on Farage in contravention of the agreed format. Do the established chaps back out? It'd be entirely right and proper, but still look rather craven.

    If the format rules are contravened any of the parties could pull out and use it as a justification. But yes, obviously they would then have a massive PR issue and look craven. The public watched the debates in surprisingly large numbers and they were a success. Any party leader trying to backslide on having them would be risking a backlash, whatever the justification.

    That also only applies to the official agreed debates. Might one of the news networks run a variation outside the official channels and invite party leaders and very prominent politicians to take part voluntarily? They just might if they thought it would draw a big audience. Which Farage most likely would.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    As far as house prices are concerned, I'm waiting for Birmingham to come to be regarded as a northern suburb of London. A MagLev link would help immensely of course.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. Pork, I concur they were a success in terms of popularity, but would strongly argue that they utterly failed to enhance the democratic process and actively damaged it.

    I don't think any would go for an unofficial debate (either politicians or the broadcast triumvirate). The politicians aren't arguing over the rules for fun, and if any broadcaster tried an unofficial debate then the politicians could threaten to boycott the 'proper' one. Someone like Channel 4 could perhaps try it.

    For Farage, however, a debate without the other leaders might be the worst of all worlds. If he won against second tier politicians or even without representatives of major parties it wouldn't be a great win (and might make him look like a big fish in a small pond, king of the second raters), and if he lost it'd be very bad.
  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

    Umm....... I don't think you quite grasp the concept of gentrification, and the profits that can be derived therefrom. But I kindly suggest we end it here? Yes. I think it is best.
    The profits are realised when you sell up and move someone cheaper but nicer.

    Which is evidently what the present owners of the house four doors down from you are doing.

    Until you do likewise you'll be getting tormented for being the poor boy on your street and having your area sneered at by those more upmarket than you.

    Your problem though is that a one bed flat in Camden Town is never going to realise enough profit to buy something classy in this country.

    Your advantage is that you are so widely travelled you must know of some places abroad which will be both appropriate and affordable.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 5s

    Labour 5% lead in post conf Opinium/Observer poll. Lab 36 n/c, Tories 31 (+2) Ukip 15 (-2), Lib Dems 7.

    Taken immediately after Tory conf.

    LD share down 16 percentage points since 2010 but Labour only up 6.
    Tories are down 6. UKIP up 12. What happened to the other 4%. Other than UKIP ? Greens, SNP, PC ?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Anyway, I'm off for the night.

    Don't forget, F1 fans, the race start is 7am. I'll try and remember to be up in time for it, but if Legard is doing the commentary I think I'll wait for the highlights. The twonk kept interrupting and talking over Gary Anderson during qualifying.

    Night all.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph front page: BBC accused of becoming Miliband's mouthpiece http://t.co/GzzzcZM4vt
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IsabelOakeshott: Burnham threatens to sue Jeremy Hunt for libel in extraordinary dispute over tweet. Sunday Times splash.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

    Umm....... I don't think you quite grasp the concept of gentrification, and the profits that can be derived therefrom. But I kindly suggest we end it here? Yes. I think it is best.
    The profits are realised when you sell up and move someone cheaper but nicer.

    Which is evidently what the present owners of the house four doors down from you are doing.

    Until you do likewise you'll be getting tormented for being the poor boy on your street and having your area sneered at by those more upmarket than you.

    Your problem though is that a one bed flat in Camden Town is never going to realise enough profit to buy something classy in this country.

    Your advantage is that you are so widely travelled you must know of some places abroad which will be both appropriate and affordable.
    What ? SeanT only lives in a one-bedroomed flat ? Such a well known C-grade writer !
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013

    Mr. Pork, I concur they were a success in terms of popularity, but would strongly argue that they utterly failed to enhance the democratic process and actively damaged it.

    I don't think any would go for an unofficial debate (either politicians or the broadcast triumvirate). The politicians aren't arguing over the rules for fun, and if any broadcaster tried an unofficial debate then the politicians could threaten to boycott the 'proper' one. Someone like Channel 4 could perhaps try it.

    For Farage, however, a debate without the other leaders might be the worst of all worlds. If he won against second tier politicians or even without representatives of major parties it wouldn't be a great win (and might make him look like a big fish in a small pond, king of the second raters), and if he lost it'd be very bad.

    Having party leaders transparently explain themselves and their policies to the public in an open debate seems a pretty damn curious way to damage the democratic process to me.
    I also strongly doubt the voters would agree with you.

    I remember some of the arguments against televising PMQ's were along the same lines yet try telling the public that parliament and the politicians they vote for shouldn't be open and transparent now.

    The world has moved on. Open public debates on TV are now accepted as a part of an election campaign and process. It's too late to turn back the clock now.

    The politicians are arguing over the rules for the official debates. They have no recourse whatsoever for objecting to debates that happen outside that process and remit.


    Farage wants publicity and airtime and he'll take it however he can get it. If Cameron won't face him he'll find someone who will. Ambitious politicians looking to make a name for themselves won't be slow to take him up either as they contemplate all the publicity they would garner.





  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Scott_P said:


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
    If we are to trust opinion polls, it looks like the Don't Knows broke heavily to the No side.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-second_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2013_(Ireland)
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Lights blue touch paper and stands well back.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10357915/The-BBC-has-come-to-loathe-those-it-serves.html



    "The BBC is not incapable of neutrality. It would like to have displayed more of it during the Falklands War"


    That did make me laugh
  • Options
    Scott_P said:


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
    The polls were wrong. Whoops.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    Anyway, I'm off for the night.

    Don't forget, F1 fans, the race start is 7am. I'll try and remember to be up in time for it, but if Legard is doing the commentary I think I'll wait for the highlights. The twonk kept interrupting and talking over Gary Anderson during qualifying.

    Night all.

    F1 is only worth watching if you're following the live timing so highlights would be a complete waste of time - might as well just watch the M1 if you want to see cars in a manner which is impossible to follow properly.
  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel


    Never heard of a Grockles,but it it must be me. I have a second home in a very popular part of the UK,pay 90% of council tax,for a blue bin bag,now and again,and not much else,so subsidisizing a bus pass wont't make any differencce.
    Actually the locals around my second home are quite content with me,it took a while,10 years plus. No one else would occupy it but me,so good for the vilage.

  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited October 2013
    Carola said:
    There was a tax article the other day on the water companies. They allegedly borrowed a load of (unnecessary) money to allow them to reduce their tax bills.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/water-companies-tax-dodging-is-beyond-the-pail/
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

    Don't misunderstand me - I'm not sneering. Just pointing out that Kensington is even more over-priced than Primrose Hill (note my original use of "priced at" rather than "worth")
  • Options
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: Burnham threatens to sue Jeremy Hunt for libel in extraordinary dispute over tweet. Sunday Times splash.

    Extraordinary. Has an MP ever issued a libel writ against another MP before? It's amazing that Burnham is making these threats. He and Miliband will be fully aware that Hunt is causing untold damage to the Labour brand.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,057
    edited October 2013
    The discussion below tells us one thing: a million pounds is not much money nowadays. It won't buy much of a decent yacht, between two or three supercars, 1/1000th of an Astute submarine, 1/10,000th of a failed NHS IT project, or 1/40,000th of a high speed railway line, give or take a few million that occasionally get lost down the back of the sofa at No. 11.

    And just over a third of a house near SeanT. I would have a little change from a million after buying four of my houses; not even enough to fill one side of a tiny street.

    Yet perversely, it is more money than most of us will ever get to have (*). Take the NMW for over 21's at £6.31. Say a person works for 40 hours a week, 50 weeks of the year (to keep the maths simple), for 50 years. In that time, without inflation, (s)he will have earned only £631,000. Inflation will raise it to around the magic million, but taxes will reduce the amount that can be spent.

    A million pounds is still a vast sum for us plebs. It is more than we will ever dream of having as disposable cash, which probably explains the lottery's ongoing popularity. But it is also a piddling sum.

    Which makes me wonder how the Turkish people felt in 2005, when the government removed six noughts off their currency. 1 million lira became precisely one new lira overnight. Some people apparently did not take it well, even though it meant little in practice.

    And would 'Hart to Hart' have the same power nowadays, when he was introduced in the credits as "a self-made millionaire"? It would have to be a billionaire to really be impressive. So how much do you need to have nowadays to live the millionaire's lifestyle that people dreamed of when I was a kid in 1980? Ten million? Twenty million? More?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revaluation_of_the_Turkish_Lira

    (*) Although as this is PB, that might be a dangerous statement.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784

    Ed Miliband and David Cameron have both enjoyed big boosts to their approval ratings in the wake of their conference speeches although Labour still has a 5% lead, a new Opinium/Observer poll shows.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/05/miliband-cameron-approval-ratings-poll

    What the observer neglects to spell out:

    Net approval rating:
    Cameron: -10 (+7)
    Miliband: -21 (+8)

  • Options
    CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805

    Carola said:
    There was a tax article the other day on the water companies. They allegedly borrowed a load of (unnecessary) money to allow them to reduce their tax bills.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/09/water-companies-tax-dodging-is-beyond-the-pail/
    We all had to have meters recently. Their estimate for me - sole occupant, apart from every other weekend (ish) anyway - is about the same as I'm paying already. So I assume others in the street - families etc - will be paying a lot more.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
    If we are to trust opinion polls, it looks like the Don't Knows broke heavily to the No side.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-second_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2013_(Ireland)
    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Grockes is a west country word:

    http://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-emm1.htm

    jayfdee said:

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel


    Never heard of a Grockles,but it it must be me. I have a second home in a very popular part of the UK,pay 90% of council tax,for a blue bin bag,now and again,and not much else,so subsidisizing a bus pass wont't make any differencce.
    Actually the locals around my second home are quite content with me,it took a while,10 years plus. No one else would occupy it but me,so good for the vilage.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: Burnham threatens to sue Jeremy Hunt for libel in extraordinary dispute over tweet. Sunday Times splash.

    The Sunday Times front page is definitive:

    "Labour Sues Hunt for NHS 'libel' tweet"

    http://politicshome.com/uk/article/85999/the_sunday_times_sunday_6th_october_2013.html
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited October 2013



    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either

    Was there a vote certainty filter? I thought most people used that given that we see a tiny percentage saying DK in our opinion polls.
  • Options
    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: Burnham threatens to sue Jeremy Hunt for libel in extraordinary dispute over tweet. Sunday Times splash.

    Extraordinary. Has an MP ever issued a libel writ against another MP before? It's amazing that Burnham is making these threats. He and Miliband will be fully aware that Hunt is causing untold damage to the Labour brand.
    There should be more to come.

    Before the 2010 election there was a mini-scandal over the distribution of NHS spending. Closer examination of political involvement in the shaping of the formulas used would be interesting.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/Failing-Figure-Whitehalls-Statistical-Reasoning/dp/1906837074/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1381007856&sr=1-1&keywords=failing+to+figure


  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    @Isabel Oakeshott: "Burnham has already instructed lawyers. They served notice on Hunt to withdraw comment, or else"
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    Jeremy Duns re-tweets: So Observer "scoop" is headmaster who himself writes for the Mail thinks it's a noxious influence on kids. Right.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 3m
    Not an entirely empty one @JuanAgain . Burnham has already instructed lawyers. They served notice on Hunt to withdraw comment, or else
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    RobD said:



    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either

    Was there a vote certainty filter? I thought most people used that given that we see a tiny percentage saying DK in our opinion polls.
    Opps, I meant 'will not vote', which isn't reported for our GE polls. I guess the question to ask would be how certain are you you will not vote. The similar question applies to the other responses. I suppose in this case 8% were 100% certain they will not vote.
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I assume from his threats that Andy Burnham is quite happy to see the Telegraph or some other newspaper print the emails at the centre of this row, in full. I watched Burnham earlier claiming that the emails had been taken out of context. Isn't that confirmation that the emails say what they say and he just wishes he hadn't sent them in the first place?

    A bit like a politician saying he regretted a particular course of action when what he actually means is he regretted that others had discovered he had done what he had done.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:



    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either

    Was there a vote certainty filter? I thought most people used that given that we see a tiny percentage saying DK in our opinion polls.
    I don't know ( and am not interested enough to find out ) whether there were turn out filters . Most of the UK GE VI polls do use turn out filters , Ipsos Mori's headline VI being based on an extremely strict filter .
  • Options
    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Bitching about BBC bias should be proscribed on the NHS as a form of medication.

    I mean, seriously.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:



    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either

    Was there a vote certainty filter? I thought most people used that given that we see a tiny percentage saying DK in our opinion polls.
    I don't know ( and am not interested enough to find out ) whether there were turn out filters . Most of the UK GE VI polls do use turn out filters , Ipsos Mori's headline VI being based on an extremely strict filter .
    Had a look on their website but no obvious data tables. I hardly think they would be expecting a 92% turnout, and that those 8% are the people that would absolutely not vote under any circumstances.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

    Umm....... I don't think you quite grasp the concept of gentrification, and the profits that can be derived therefrom. But I kindly suggest we end it here? Yes. I think it is best.
    The profits are realised when you sell up and move someone cheaper but nicer.


    Uhm..... er..... ok. HINT:

    1. I don't sit here tormented by the idea there are people in posher parts of London, no more than I am tormented there are asteroids near Jupiter

    2. Don't want to live in the country, ever

    3. Can't remember point 3

    4. My one bed flat in Camden is now worth about half a mill, which could buy me something nice almost anywhere but London. But I...

    5. Don't want to live in the country, ever

    6. Who cares. My original point was just a bit of teasing. The fact is this small part of Camden, where I happen to own, has enjoyed a remarkable rise in property prices in the last decade, which is nice for me but irrelevant to most anyone else, but of some value to those who are taking a wider view of the British economy

    Envoi.
    The wider issue point is worthwhile.

    1) London is now very different to everywhere else in Britain
    2) The political and economic overclass is becoming increasingly London dominated
    3) Political and economic decisions are based on London needs not those of Britain generally
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
    If we are to trust opinion polls, it looks like the Don't Knows broke heavily to the No side.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-second_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2013_(Ireland)
    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either
    If that's the case then nether side can credibly claim to have had a competent and effective GOTV and grass roots campaign on the ground. The vital importance of which should be obvious.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    An obscure Tweet by Hunt, will now be the centre of the news for a bit, and any trial would be a very public libel trial. I am not sure that is wise of Burnham...

    I assume from his threats that Andy Burnham is quite happy to see the Telegraph or some other newspaper print the emails at the centre of this row, in full. I watched Burnham earlier claiming that the emails had been taken out of context. Isn't that confirmation that the emails say what they say and he just wishes he hadn't sent them in the first place?

    A bit like a politician saying he regretted a particular course of action when what he actually means is he regretted that others had discovered he had done what he had done.

  • Options
    jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    Grockes is a west country word:

    http://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-emm1.htm
    Thanks,you live and learn.
    Sometimes I cannot understand the Cumberland/Westmoreland,expressions where I come from. Don't even talk about Cumbria.
    Boffell,and Wossel,always get me,Quote from Joss Naylor,a local.



    jayfdee said:

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel


    Never heard of a Grockles,but it it must be me. I have a second home in a very popular part of the UK,pay 90% of council tax,for a blue bin bag,now and again,and not much else,so subsidisizing a bus pass wont't make any differencce.
    Actually the locals around my second home are quite content with me,it took a while,10 years plus. No one else would occupy it but me,so good for the vilage.

  • Options
    Sunday Times/YouGov poll

    72% of the voters think the Daily Mail's description of Ralph Miliband as “the man who hated Britain” was unacceptable and 69% believe the Mail should apologise.

    57% of Mail readers think it should apologise for its headline.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Mick_Pork said:


    If that's the case then nether side can credibly claim to have had a competent and effective GOTV and grass roots campaign on the ground. The vital importance of which should be obvious.

    Any self-respecting pollster would not predict a 92% turnout in any election, they would be insane to do so. As I have said earlier, it is far more likely that those are the 8% of respondents who would never vote under any circumstances, much like the MORI 100% likely to vote filter.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,103
    edited October 2013
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SeanT said:


    I tend to agree, though it is clearly a special property, with a special history. Apparently several movie stars/comedy stars are being shown around.

    Piquantly it is a few doors up from the house where Dylan Thomas lived - and he hated Camden. But then, of course, it was a slum.

    Now? If a house on my street can sell for TWELVE MILLION we can safely say that Delancey St, and this airy part of upper Camden, has totally ARRIVED.

    In your face, Islington. Eat crow, Fitzrovia.

    Sean, it's 10,000 square feet - £1,200 psf. By comparison, a MANSION FLAT in Kensington is priced at £1,750 psf.
    So not only is SeanT the poor boy on his street but his area is STILL getting sneered at.

    This is public humiliation for our Sean and all self-inflicted ;-)

    Don't misunderstand me - I'm not sneering. Just pointing out that Kensington is even more over-priced than Primrose Hill (note my original use of "priced at" rather than "worth")
    Don't worry Charles we know you weren't sneering.

    But ...

    Anytime a posh bloke with money discusses money or houses or makes a reference that the posh area he lives in costs more than the not so posh area someone else lives in it can be misconstrued. Sometimes deliberately and/or maliciously.

    And this is one of the problems the Cameroons have brought to the Conservative leadership.
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited October 2013
    RobD said:

    Mick_Pork said:


    If that's the case then nether side can credibly claim to have had a competent and effective GOTV and grass roots campaign on the ground. The vital importance of which should be obvious.

    Any self-respecting pollster would not predict a 92% turnout in any election, they would be insane to do so. As I have said earlier, it is far more likely that those are the 8% of respondents who would never vote under any circumstances, much like the MORI 100% likely to vote filter.
    I agree that extrapolating 92% is a bit much to say the least, but it doesn't invalidate the importance of turnout and GOTV to a referendum or indeed any election.

    That turnout isn't very impressive anyway though since we don't seem to have any polling predictions directly on that it's hard to say if it was widely expected or not.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    It is a word used in the highest echelons of society, Dr. Sox.

    Prince Edward, in his Ardent TV days, found himself in difficulty with the rest of the media when he was overheard to refer to unwanted but paying visitors to Windsor Castle as "grockles".

    Grockes is a west country word:

    http://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-emm1.htm



    jayfdee said:

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel


    Never heard of a Grockles,but it it must be me. I have a second home in a very popular part of the UK,pay 90% of council tax,for a blue bin bag,now and again,and not much else,so subsidisizing a bus pass wont't make any differencce.
    Actually the locals around my second home are quite content with me,it took a while,10 years plus. No one else would occupy it but me,so good for the vilage.

  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    too much time in the Duchy perhaps?
    AveryLP said:

    It is a word used in the highest echelons of society, Dr. Sox.

    Prince Edward, in his Ardent TV days, found himself in difficulty with the rest of the media when he was overheard to refer to paying visitors to Windsor Castle as "grockles".

    Grockes is a west country word:

    http://www.worldwidewords.org/weirdwords/ww-emm1.htm



    jayfdee said:

    I think Bus subsidies are paid for by the council rather than national govt.

    As the holder can travel on any bus in the country with it, not just their local area, the scheme puts quite a financial strain on those parts of the country popular with elderly tourists like Dorset and South Devon. Poor locals subsidise the grockles staying in their second homes...

    But enjoy! you may want to browse this excellent book on places to visit for free:

    http://www.bradtguides.com/Book/251/BusPass-Britain.html

    so popular there is now a sequel


    Never heard of a Grockles,but it it must be me. I have a second home in a very popular part of the UK,pay 90% of council tax,for a blue bin bag,now and again,and not much else,so subsidisizing a bus pass wont't make any differencce.
    Actually the locals around my second home are quite content with me,it took a while,10 years plus. No one else would occupy it but me,so good for the vilage.

  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    And......they're off!

    "Peter Sissons, who presented the BBC Nine O’Clock News and BBC News at Ten between 1993 and 2003, said: “The real difficulty is that the overwhelming view of the BBC’s news executives is broadly sympathetic towards the Labour Party and is inclined to always give Labour the benefit of the doubt.

    “There is a political imbalance within the BBC which in this case has led to a basic failure of journalism.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/10358533/BBC-accused-of-becoming-Ed-Milibands-mouthpiece.html
  • Options
    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    tim said:

    Utterly damning polling for the Mail on Ralph Miliband.

    It's all the BBC's fault quite obviously.

    *tears of laughter etc.* ;^ )

  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Utterly damning polling for the Mail on Ralph Miliband.

    As every smart poster on here knew would be the case

    Just as any smart poster knows such polls on these kind of issues are pretty meaningless - now if we see a big fall off in Mail revenues, sales, website hits, etc accompanied by big upticks for the Mirror and the Guardian then you might just be on to something.
  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    tim said:

    Utterly damning polling for the Mail on Ralph Miliband.

    As every smart poster on here knew would be the case

    The whole of Britain feels sorry for Ed Miliband, tim.

    I havent sensed such a wave of revulsion tear through the country since the News of the World so insensitively linked Max Mosley's sadomasochism to his late and dearly beloved father.
  • Options
    SouthCoastKevinSouthCoastKevin Posts: 158
    edited October 2013

    I assume from his threats that Andy Burnham is quite happy to see the Telegraph or some other newspaper print the emails at the centre of this row, in full. I watched Burnham earlier claiming that the emails had been taken out of context. Isn't that confirmation that the emails say what they say and he just wishes he hadn't sent them in the first place?

    Agreed with this and foxinsoxuk - Burnham had better be sure of his ground or this could backfire horribly. Either way, it raises the profile of Hunt's accusations and will presumably get some more people thinking that maybe Labour aren't the saviours of the NHS. So much for 90 days (if memory serves) to save the NHS...
  • Options

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:


    IndyRef2014 punters, take note.

    The status quo prevailed...

    yes, punters should take note of that.
    If we are to trust opinion polls, it looks like the Don't Knows broke heavily to the No side.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty-second_Amendment_of_the_Constitution_Bill_2013_(Ireland)
    That is certainly incorrect . It is pretty clear why the opinion polls were wrong . Take the Ipsos Mori poll
    Abolish 44% Retain 27% Undecided 21% Will Not Vote 8%
    The actual turn out was just 39.17% instead of the expected 92% . Not only did all the undecideds not vote but nearly half of the decideds did not vote either
    So differential turnout proved to be far more important than VI polling. IndyRef2014 punters, take note.
  • Options
    The BBC clearly hasn't done Labour or Miliband any favours with its over-the-top and relentless coverage of this trivial spat. Although Miliband got some sympathy initially, the BBC's ludicrous obsession has made him look like a man on the make. Giving air time to hooligans like Alistair Campbell also cemented the notion that this was a spin operation and nothing more.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mehdi Hasan vs Irshad Manji at the Oxford Union:

    http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/headtohead/2013/06/201361091619207870.html

    "In this episode of Head to Head at the Oxford Union, Mehdi Hasan challenges controversial Canadian author Irshad Manji, writer of The Trouble with Islam Today and also Allah, Liberty and Love on the need to reform Islam, the notion of Ijtihad, the problem of Islamophobia and what Muslims need to own-up to."
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2013


    I'd agree with all your points. However I am not sure we'd agree on a *solution*. Britain is an often beautiful country with a seriously amazing history, which is nonetheless essentially second tier, for all its virtues - the UK is a country on a par with Italy, France or Japan, not China or the USA (or India in the future).

    However it happens to host a truly world class city, arguably the greatest city on earth.

    This tilts things. But I'm not sure what we could or should *do* about it.
    The great thing about Britain being a fairly small island is that the majority of the population can be in London within a 2 hour train journey.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    That Opinium Poll - approval among VI:

    Cameron: +85
    Miliband: +46
    Clegg: +44

    Marriage tax break - net support: +30

    Next election- most likely result:
    Con Maj: 11
    Hung Con lead: 26
    Hung Lab lead: 24
    Lab Maj: 16

    Total:
    Con win: 37
    Lab Win: 41
    Hung: 50

    http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/vi_01_10_13.pdf
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    I assume from his threats that Andy Burnham is quite happy to see the Telegraph or some other newspaper print the emails at the centre of this row, in full. I watched Burnham earlier claiming that the emails had been taken out of context. Isn't that confirmation that the emails say what they say and he just wishes he hadn't sent them in the first place?

    Agreed with this and foxinsoxuk - Burnham had better be sure of his ground or this could backfire horribly. Either way, it raises the profile of Hunt's accusations and will presumably get some more people thinking that maybe Labour aren't the saviours of the NHS. So much for 90 days (if memory serves) to save the NHS...
    The Telegraph piled in too.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/10353221/The-NHS-cover-up-will-tarnish-Labour-for-ever.html
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I quite like Andy Burnham, and have a few quid on him for next Labour leader. So I hope that he plays this well. EdM rightly got some sympathy, but this is not a similar story,

    Sure, he has wanted to kick a health scandal into touch, but which health minister doesn't?

    And he wants me to have a pay rise, unlike that Anna Soubry.

    I assume from his threats that Andy Burnham is quite happy to see the Telegraph or some other newspaper print the emails at the centre of this row, in full. I watched Burnham earlier claiming that the emails had been taken out of context. Isn't that confirmation that the emails say what they say and he just wishes he hadn't sent them in the first place?

    Agreed with this and foxinsoxuk - Burnham had better be sure of his ground or this could backfire horribly. Either way, it raises the profile of Hunt's accusations and will presumably get some more people thinking that maybe Labour aren't the saviours of the NHS. So much for 90 days (if memory serves) to save the NHS...
  • Options
    The YouGov poll also found 78% of those questioned saying Ed was right to complain the Mail
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,784
    SeanT said:

    The BBC clearly hasn't done Labour or Miliband any favours with its over-the-top and relentless coverage of this trivial spat. Although Miliband got some sympathy initially, the BBC's ludicrous obsession has made him look like a man on the make. Giving air time to hooligans like Alistair Campbell also cemented the notion that this was a spin operation and nothing more.

    Alistair Campbell on Newsnight complaining about "bullying" of people within the media will surely rank as one of the most fatuously, surreally inverted ten minutes of recent British TV news.
    That was priceless!

    Almost as funny as tim, Roger et al the following morning crowing about how he'd stuffed the Mail guy.....

    'Self Awareness R Us'? Not......
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I always enjoy getting on the train to London, but not as much as I enjoy the train back home.
    AndyJS said:



    I'd agree with all your points. However I am not sure we'd agree on a *solution*. Britain is an often beautiful country with a seriously amazing history, which is nonetheless essentially second tier, for all its virtues - the UK is a country on a par with Italy, France or Japan, not China or the USA (or India in the future).

    However it happens to host a truly world class city, arguably the greatest city on earth.

    This tilts things. But I'm not sure what we could or should *do* about it.
    The great thing about Britain being a fairly small island is that the majority of the population can be in London within a 2 hour train journey.

  • Options
    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited October 2013
    There may be more to the 'Burnham sues Hunt' story than is currently being discussed.

    It is customary for Government and Shadow Ministers who take civil action for defamation to step down from their office until the matter is resolved by the Courts.

    Perhaps we should anticipate an exchange of letters between Miliband and Burnham each expressing their regret at the unfortunate events which gave rise to such an unexpected resignation.

  • Options
    YouGov poll

    Was it acceptable or not for the Daily Mail to call Ralph Milband "a man who hated Britain" and left an "evil legacy"

    Unacceptable 72%

    Acceptable 17%

    DK 11%
This discussion has been closed.