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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Campaign-funded YouGov poll points to the LDs getting to within 2 points of LAB if the red team backs Brexit
New YouGov poll commissioned by an anti-Brexit campaign group points to big electoral price that LAB would pay if continues to back Brexithttps://t.co/2FUSmdTxSr
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Riiiight.
What an idiot Adonis is.
What complete bollocks
I am aware of an ICM poll due out this week.
A very small percentage of Labour voters see BREXIT as the issue that will decide their vote.
Much more important for Tory voters BTW
And how much influence did the commissioning parties have over the framing of those questions?
Brexit is a deeply felt schism felt by both sides, but I think the Tories will Brexit before a GE, and get punished in that GE.
https://twitter.com/DrPhillipLeeMP/status/1031142472641069056
What these sorts of hypothetical polls show is that Labour will lose votes if they focus their campaign on Brexit (whether a pro-Brexit or anti- stance), rather than on the "bread-and-butter" issues that they focussed their 2017 campaign on.
Unless you are saying Islam is a race
You may have missed Boris' little article last week.
So the best position for Labour then is surely to continue Corbyn's fudge Brexit given it trails the Tories either by opposing or supporting Brexit?
But if it comes down to a crucial Parliamentary vote and the Government loses and calls an election, that might be different!
Wales voted Leave by 1% more than the UK as a whole in 2016
What an absurd and pointless point. If the Tories did not implement the Brexit the British people voted for then they really would be in trouble to a revived UKIP
Even though my MP is a prominent Tory Remainer, I will not be voting for him again.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45242786
Let's imagine that Brexit is generally a splendid success. Here's the problem: we're still due a recession. When the recession comes, whatever its ultimate causes, it will be blamed on Brexit, because that's a lot easier than saying "It's the consequence of successive governments looking to maintain consumer spending levels by encouraging borrowing rather than saving. What we're seeing now is an inevitable normalisation of household savings levels."
Also, even if Brexit is overall a success, there will still be winners and losers. It is human nature to blame your failings on other people, and your successes on your own hard work and intelligence. So, those that benefit from Brexit, will thank themselves. While those who lose out will blame Brexit (and the Conservative Party).
The other problem is that, while a great many people may blame the EU if things don't go to plan, this is a continuum, not a step function. It won't be that everyone blames the EU, and no-one blames the government, it'll be that 60% of people blame the EU, and 40% blame the government. And of that 40%, some will be your voters. It's the inevitable consequence of having been in power a long time - at some point you'll have done something to upset everyone.
Mrs May comes out and announces that she has reached a deal with the EU, and believe that we should have a "People's Vote" (I hate that nomenclature) to ratify it, and it will be Deal or No Deal.
This passes in the Commons, but the Lord's sends it back with a "Remain" option. The Commons strips this and sends it back up again. And again the Lords adds "Remain". Time is now running out. A number of "more scared of No Deal than Remain being on the ballot paper" MPs in the Conservative Party (and potentially even the DUP) rebel, allowing it on the ballot, perhaps as part of a convoluted AV type vote.
Unlikely? Yes.
Possible? Yes. I'd make it a 5-10% chance, assuming a decision to hold a second referendum on Deal vs No Deal.
Let's say she has a deal like Chequers agreed with the EU. Internal polling shows that Remainers will reluctantly accept it, as well as around a quarter of Leavers. The ERG will hate it, and it will be almost impossible to get through parliament given that Corbyn would rather have a General Election than back an EU deal - even if he loved it.
So, she's got a deal she cannot get through parliament. What can she do other than announce a referendum on it? Most MPs will be forced to back it, either because they see electoral advantage to it, they're scared of being seen to oppose the people choosing the form of Brexit, or because handing the decision to voters absolves them of responsibility.
Labour's position is brilliant. They appear more pro-EU than the Conservative Party, while being anti-EU enough to hold on to their own Leavers votes.
If Labour decided to make a policy position of being more pro-Brexit than the Conservative Party, then I suspect the polling would be correct. Instead they will always stand just inside the Conservatives: in favour of Brexit, only a kinder, gentler form.
May will remain neutral. Chequers accepters like Gove will back the deal. Boris Johnson will prevaricate and then say Remain is the best option because May has made a mess of it. Remain will win by a landslide. Gove will be happy his reputation is intact, and May will be extremely popular.
May will never put forward a Deal or Remain referendum as she knows she would be toppled straight away. The divisions in the Tory Party now are between Chequers Deal supporters and No Deal supporters, diehard Remainers in the Tories can be counted on one hand. Gove would back the Deal, Johnson would back No Deal, neither would back Remain as the only referendum Tories would allow May to push through would be a straight Deal or No Deal. Remain lost in 2016 and Tories will not allow it to be on the ballot again while they have a Tory PM
She didn't actually know who her MP was. She just knew Labour was less pro-Brexit than the Conservatives.
The Customs Union vote now proves the current Commons has a majority to enforce the Leave vote and also overrule the Lords even with some a few hardline Remainer Tory MPs, particularly with the DUP and Labour Leave MPs, Remain will not be an option
And am I that young? I'm only 42!
If the Greeks can manage it in three weeks, then so could we.
Edit: Oh, you aren't saying he would, but he would if it were to match what happened in Greece. Sorry!
1) The fuel protests in 2000. This causes a spike in polling for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. The effect of having hundreds (thousands?) of petrol stations closed was visible and dramatic to the public.
It also was a very short-lived spike; istr the polling for all three main parties went back to where it had been. Once people no longer saw queues for petrol, the drama had passed and the government could claim credit for fixing the problem.
2) Iraq. This was very different; it did not cause a spike in polling for the Lib Dems (mainly at the expense of Labour), but a slow rise - a surge - that lasted for many years. The government could do nothing to 'fix' the problem.
Note in both of these it was not the excellence of Lib Dem policies that caused people to move to them; it was a reaction to the actions of the party in government - and this is a large part of the reason why the Lib Dems crashed back down in 2010.
So which would this be more like? I don't know. But I would say that the people who shifted allegiance over Iraq might feel more secure in the fact that a supposedly peace-loving man leads labour (*). We just don't know how deep anti-Brexit feelings are.
(*) Hint: he doesn't lead Labour, or love peace.
We have already had an election in 2017 where Labour supported Brexit and it did them no harm. At the same election the Lib Dems were the only anti-Brxit party and it made little difference to their vote.