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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s special congressional election in Ohio could be a go

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Alliance have shifted from being a liberal unionist party to being little Sir Echo for Sinn Fein. They will be slaughtered in seats like East Belfast, North Down, South Antrim, East Antrim.
    The Alliance lost their only Westminster seat in East Belfast back to the DUP in 2015
    When the UUP stopped campaigning in East Belfast, Alliance took over their vote. Then, a lot of UUP voters were appalled to find out what type of candidate they'd been voting for.
    Yes, if the Alliance is seen to be moderate nationalist rather than moderate unionist or at least non sectarian it will find itself falling well behind the SDLP and UUP never mind not being able to challenge the DUP and SF
    Lol @ "at least"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Have these MORI leadership numbers been debated on here yet (per Britain Elects):

    "The Labour Party should change its leader before the next general election":

    Agree: 55%
    Disagree: 27%

    "The Conservative Party should change its leader before the next general election":

    Agree: 46%
    Disagree: 31%

    Yet there is universal agreement that Con must change leader but not Lab?

    Suggests Lab may struggle if Corbyn is leader at next GE?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    There is a general assumption the Conservatives *will* knife May before the next election. There's an easy mechanism for the PCP to remove her, and a general agreement among MPs that she shouldn't stay.

    There is a general assumption that Corbyn will not be removed, because there is actually no way to remove him. All avenues have been tried, and failed. As I have said before, I think there is a non-trivial chance he will quit next year on turning 70, but if he doesn't there's no realistic way of removing him. (I think the only person that doesn't apply to is Macdonnell - if he resigns Corbyn might well have to go too).

    But i think those figures are more or less irrelevant until we have a leadership slugfest in one party or the other. If by some peculiar catastrophe Boris gets in we'll rapidly become nostalgic for May.
    The Tories under Boris would face a ticking time bomb of scandal in the way the Liberals faced one under Thorpe.
    I doubt that. It would have come out when he was London Mayor if so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    @ydoethur

    On the last thread you said that Germans were only allowed to vote for the Nazis

    Quite the contrary: the below ballot paper (from Austria) clearly shows voters had the right to vote against Hitler if they wished...

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg

    Was that before or after Hitler went a bit mad?
  • Aren't the Muslim women who choose the extreme face wear also actually enabling the suppression of the women who don't want it but are forced into it?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    The long term solution for Northern Ireland is likely Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh and Derry which are Catholic majority join the Republic while Protestant majority Down and Antrim stay in the UK. Until then Stormont powersharing should be restored.
    What are you going to do with West Belfast?
    Will HY be the Sykes or Picot of the modern era?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited August 2018
    re NI my feeling is that as and when the numbers dictate it, the whole polity, will go to the Republic. Of course that will unleash hell from certain sections of society. It is also of course the desire not to rock the boat that renders the current negotiations so important.
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    The long term solution for Northern Ireland is likely Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh and Derry which are Catholic majority join the Republic while Protestant majority Down and Antrim stay in the UK. Until then Stormont powersharing should be restored.
    What are you going to do with West Belfast?
    Will HY be the Sykes or Picot of the modern era?
    The Radcliffe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    I know Elon's not flavour of the month, but I for one am glad to see how the Tesla shorters' balls have been crushed recently.
    (I hold no position in Tesla)

    If that was Musk’s objective he’s guilty of market abuse
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    MikeL said:

    Have these MORI leadership numbers been debated on here yet (per Britain Elects):

    "The Labour Party should change its leader before the next general election":

    Agree: 55%
    Disagree: 27%

    "The Conservative Party should change its leader before the next general election":

    Agree: 46%
    Disagree: 31%

    Yet there is universal agreement that Con must change leader but not Lab?

    Suggests Lab may struggle if Corbyn is leader at next GE?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    There is a general assumption the Conservatives *will* knife May before the next election. There's an easy mechanism for the PCP to remove her, and a general agreement among MPs that she shouldn't stay.

    There is a general assumption that Corbyn will not be removed, because there is actually no way to remove him. All avenues have been tried, and failed. As I have said before, I think there is a non-trivial chance he will quit next year on turning 70, but if he doesn't there's no realistic way of removing him. (I think the only person that doesn't apply to is Macdonnell - if he resigns Corbyn might well have to go too).

    But i think those figures are more or less irrelevant until we have a leadership slugfest in one party or the other. If by some peculiar catastrophe Boris gets in we'll rapidly become nostalgic for May.
    The Tories under Boris would face a ticking time bomb of scandal in the way the Liberals faced one under Thorpe.
    Thorpe was the most electorally successful Liberal leader since Lloyd George and 4 years after his trial the SDP Liberal Alliance got 23%.

    Though I doubt Boris will be accused of orchestrating a murder plot
    ... but was only a couple of notches down with the Darius Guppie affair, so who knows? Over the last few weeks Boris has played an absolute blinder. The resignation and now the niqab dog whistling is a stroke of genius, endearing him not only to the right of the party but also to the majority of the electorate. It is a little bit naughty, but Machiavellian gold!
    As I have frequently said as long as you have charisma skeletons in your closet rarely matter in politics unless they really are so big nobody could escape them
    Boris’s are so big he can’t escape them.
    They're down at Big Yellow.
  • Aren't the Muslim women who choose the extreme face wear also actually enabling the suppression of the women who don't want it but are forced into it?

    And @JosiasJessop aren't you doing exactly the same by comparing your entirely voluntarily worn headgear to excuse that which I'm sure you must know is used in some cases to suppress women?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    The long term solution for Northern Ireland is likely Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh and Derry which are Catholic majority join the Republic while Protestant majority Down and Antrim stay in the UK. Until then Stormont powersharing should be restored.
    What are you going to do with West Belfast?
    Will HY be the Sykes or Picot of the modern era?
    The Radcliffe.
    I remember him from the viceroy's mansion
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited August 2018
    "Theresa May has rebuked Boris Johnson over his claim that Muslim women in burqas resemble letter boxes and bank robbers, urging the former foreign secretary to apologise after he defied an order to do so by Tory chiefs."

    "..it is clear that the language that Boris used has offended people.”, Mrs May said.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Charles said:

    Oldest state? China, surely.

    In Europe? Austria needs some thinking about.

    For a little by time Austria wasn’t a state but merely an agglomeration of lands owned by the Hapsburgs
    If they both owned the lands and administered a fairly uniform system of law in them, that is surely quite a long way towards coming to the same thing.
    Not really - there wasn’t a government as such just a landowner with different feudal rights
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,733

    Aren't the Muslim women who choose the extreme face wear also actually enabling the suppression of the women who don't want it but are forced into it?

    And @JosiasJessop aren't you doing exactly the same by comparing your entirely voluntarily worn headgear to excuse that which I'm sure you must know is used in some cases to suppress women?
    In some case it is; in others it is done out of free will. Personally as an agnostic I find it hard to believe, but nonetheless it's true. Religion can do funny things to people ...

    As I've said before, I could support a ban on the Niqab , and especially the burka, in limited cases, e.g. in courts. But I fail to see how a general public ban would 'help' anyone; in fact, it would hurt many women who (mistakenly IMO) put wearing one above their own welfare.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    @ydoethur

    On the last thread you said that Germans were only allowed to vote for the Nazis

    Quite the contrary: the below ballot paper (from Austria) clearly shows voters had the right to vote against Hitler if they wished...

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg

    The fact that the Anschluss ballot generally had to be filled in in plain sight of the officials, rather than in a ballot booth, helped concentrate minds somewhat, however.
    What’s wrong with transparency?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,733



    Insulted by you insisting on always wearing it in my presence? If it wasn't cold, of course. Plus I'd think you a freak, and I'd probably tell you so.

    Ah, so you're easily insulted and an ill-mannered fool.

    You might be right, though ... ;)
    I guess if you've got a really freaky face I might prefer that you insist on it
    What is a 'freaky face' in your view? I think we should be told ... :)
  • HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    The long term solution for Northern Ireland is likely Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh and Derry which are Catholic majority join the Republic while Protestant majority Down and Antrim stay in the UK. Until then Stormont powersharing should be restored.
    What are you going to do with West Belfast?
    Easy.

    Glenavy ward connects West Belfast to Lough Neagh. You can see these on my sectarian headcount interesting maps based on the 2001 Census.

    http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    @ydoethur

    On the last thread you said that Germans were only allowed to vote for the Nazis

    Quite the contrary: the below ballot paper (from Austria) clearly shows voters had the right to vote against Hitler if they wished...

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg

    Was that before or after Hitler went a bit mad?
    Was he ever sane?

    To be fair (ugh) he was just tidying up a loose end from Bismarck
  • surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    What do you mean "except Armagh"? Armagh is majority Catholic.
  • IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    All counties except Armagh , Down and Antrim must have a vote. If the six counties can secede from Ireland, counties from Northern Ireland can also rejoin Ireland.
    The long term solution for Northern Ireland is likely Tyrone, Fermanagh and Armagh and Derry which are Catholic majority join the Republic while Protestant majority Down and Antrim stay in the UK. Until then Stormont powersharing should be restored.
    What are you going to do with West Belfast?
    Will HY be the Sykes or Picot of the modern era?
    The Radcliffe.
    "The Brits partitioned MY country too, you know!" :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    @ydoethur

    On the last thread you said that Germans were only allowed to vote for the Nazis

    Quite the contrary: the below ballot paper (from Austria) clearly shows voters had the right to vote against Hitler if they wished...

    https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg

    Was that before or after Hitler went a bit mad?
    Was he ever sane?

    To be fair (ugh) he was just tidying up a loose end from Bismarck
    Think you're missing the reference to Ken L.
  • NEW THREAD

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:



    Thorpe was the most electorally successful Liberal leader since Lloyd George and 4 years after his trial the SDP Liberal Alliance got 23%.

    Though I doubt Boris will be accused of orchestrating a murder plot!

    Is this post for real?

    Does HYUFD actually believe this crock of totally inaccurate shite?

    Does he believe (for example) that 14 is more than 35 or 21?
    The 19% Thorpe got for the Liberals in 1979 was the highest since the 23.6% Lloyd George got in 1929.
    Thorpe was not leader in 1979!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:



    Thorpe was the most electorally successful Liberal leader since Lloyd George and 4 years after his trial the SDP Liberal Alliance got 23%.

    Though I doubt Boris will be accused of orchestrating a murder plot!

    Is this post for real?

    Does HYUFD actually believe this crock of totally inaccurate shite?

    Does he believe (for example) that 14 is more than 35 or 21?
    The 19% Thorpe got for the Liberals in 1979 was the highest since the 23.6% Lloyd George got in 1929.
    Thorpe was not leader in 1979!
    Feb 1974 then
This discussion has been closed.