"Brandon [Lewis] is trying to build a power base at Matthew Parker Street – don’t laugh, but he genuinely considers himself a leadership contender"
Brandon Lewis is a leadership contender. Or he might be. Look what happened last time: everyone assumed Boris had it sewn up so no-one stood against him, then a quick rush of blood to Michael Gove's head and suddenly it's Andrea Leadsom versus Theresa May -- and even then the CCHQ dirty tricks department had to lean on Leadsom to step down.
So if Andrea Leadsom and Theresa May set the bar, then every Cabinet member and half the junior ministers will be thinking they could clear it. And some of them will be right.
So it is over then. Over this week things will quiet down, then in a couple of months something else will happen. Predictable that the leadership will pull back, and that will be the reason that everyone else pulls back too.
A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.
It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.
Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.
I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.
Given that there is currently $1.67 trillion of US dollar-denominated cash in circulation, physical currency would appear to be very far from dead. This is just as well. Governments would love to abolish physical currency. If all of our money were held electronically in banks, it would be easy to impose negative interest rates, i.e. effectively to confiscate a percentage of everyone's deposits, whenever the relevant authorities felt like doing so.
So it is over then. Over this week things will quiet down, then in a couple of months something else will happen. Predictable that the leadership will pull back, and that will be the reason that everyone else pulls back too.
From the comments on Hodge's twitter - they aren't pulling back
How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?
"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."
Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.
Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?
It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.
Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State
But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!
So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic
About as much as a ConHome survey!
ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
My stopped clock (a Smiths of derby ex-engine room clock) is correct twice a day.
It's actually a very unusual clock: the dial has minutes but not hours on it. Apparently because there were things that had to be done at various minutes every hour. The hour didn't matter, but the minutes did.
Has anyone seen similar dials? There don't seem to be many on Google.
“It’s ironic, though, that those supposedly seeking to reinvigorate Great Britain and its apparent glory days are casting aside its links with Northern Ireland, whatever the protestations of the DUP.”
Fwiw, I agree that cameras on the border are almost certain to be routinely vandalised.
The solution is to have such customs checks intelligence led and in-border, not on the border, with NI having a special status in both the UK and wrt. to Eire and the EU.
Just like it does now.
If the cameras face both ways and upload in real time vandalizing them has its challenges.
How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?
"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."
Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.
Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?
It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.
Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State
But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!
So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic
About as much as a ConHome survey!
ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
My stopped clock (a Smiths of derby ex-engine room clock) is correct twice a day.
It's actually a very unusual clock: the dial has minutes but not hours on it. Apparently because there were things that had to be done at various minutes every hour. The hour didn't matter, but the minutes did.
Has anyone seen similar dials? There don't seem to be many on Google.
How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?
"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."
Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.
Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?
It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.
Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State
But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!
So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic
About as much as a ConHome survey!
ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
My stopped clock (a Smiths of derby ex-engine room clock) is correct twice a day.
That was the last time the Tory membership voted on the leader
O/T What’s the best statistical method to see if there’s a correlation between two data sets?
If the two groups cannot be linked (i.e. both groups don't have the same people), then:
* Use a t-test if the data are numeric and has a normal distribution * Use a Wilcoxon-Mann Whitney test if the data are numeric and the data doesn't have a normal distribution * Use a chi-square test if the data are categorical and you have lots of numbers * Use Fisher's exact test if the data are categorical and you do or do not have lots of numbers
If the two groups can be linked (i.e. both groups have the same people, or it's the same group at two different times), then:
* Use a paired t-test[1] if the data are numeric and has a normal distribution * Use a Wilcoxon signed ranks test if the data are numeric and the data doesn't have a normal distribution * Use a McNemar test if the data are categorical
This advice is submitted informally and I will not take any responsibility for any errors. Please make your own checks before proceeding.
Fwiw, I agree that cameras on the border are almost certain to be routinely vandalised.
The solution is to have such customs checks intelligence led and in-border, not on the border, with NI having a special status in both the UK and wrt. to Eire and the EU.
Just like it does now.
If the cameras face both ways and upload in real time vandalizing them has its challenges.
Maybe they could spray fire, issue electric shocks and deploy Alsatian dogs as well?
There won’t be any physical infrastructure on the border. There can’t be.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t innovative solutions available with GPS, drones and electronic manifests, but the EU aren’t interested because they want to use NI to pull the UK closer to them.
How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?
"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."
Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.
Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?
It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.
Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State
But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!
So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic
About as much as a ConHome survey!
ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
My stopped clock (a Smiths of derby ex-engine room clock) is correct twice a day.
It's actually a very unusual clock: the dial has minutes but not hours on it. Apparently because there were things that had to be done at various minutes every hour. The hour didn't matter, but the minutes did.
Has anyone seen similar dials? There don't seem to be many on Google.
Surely it is correct 24 times per day?
A very good point, sir. (It does have an hour hand though)
Fwiw, I agree that cameras on the border are almost certain to be routinely vandalised.
The solution is to have such customs checks intelligence led and in-border, not on the border, with NI having a special status in both the UK and wrt. to Eire and the EU.
So it is over then. Over this week things will quiet down, then in a couple of months something else will happen. Predictable that the leadership will pull back, and that will be the reason that everyone else pulls back too.
From the comments on Hodge's twitter - they aren't pulling back
Plus Formby has lied in her letter.
It ain't over yet.
Realistically it is. Formby being untrustworthy is hardly news. An inability of certain Labour members to look with a clear eye at themselves isn't news. Hodge isn't stupid, for all her faults. Launching a legal action over minor points of principle when she has actually got the key thing - a dropping of the case - would be (a) expensive and (b) pointless.
Unless somebody in the Labour Party deliberately libels her, I think this is the end of this part of the action.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t innovative solutions available with GPS, drones and electronic manifests, but the EU aren’t interested because they want to use NI to pull the UK closer to them.
You see innovation. To the small business who has to make their cross-border shipment drone compatible, it's nothing but an explosion of unnecessary red tape. We already have the perfect political innovation to solve this problem and it's called the EU.
And that is a more persuasive argument than 'because we are one continent' for what reason?
(And of course we aren't one nation - the UK is a multinational state.)
Because "one nation" is a convenient shorthand for "in a fiscal and political union as well as an economic union".
We have a single deficit (where we borrow money as one entity, backed by one economy and one interest rate" and raise tax money as one entity, with one (largely) single benefits system, taxation system, employment legislation system, and transfer money between richer and poorer areas directly.
Europe has differing taxation and benefits systems, placing stresses on the right interest rates for each area and the most appropriate value for the single monetary system, and completely lacks fiscal transfers of money from, say, Germany to Greece, or England to Estonia (or vice versa).
If all that were to exist, a single currency would be sensible.
O/T What’s the best statistical method to see if there’s a correlation between two data sets?
It depends. Please be more specific.
The more marginal the seat, the bigger the swing at the election.
OK, since the data points are each of similar size and you are testing for no more than a simple linear relationship, ordinary least squares regression is fine and can be done on Excel. I assume you are measuring the size of the swing in a particular direction. If you are looking at the absolute scale of the swing regardless of direction you would need to convert all the negative swings to positive first. Think about subdividing your data sets e.g. would you expect a relationship for England/Wales to hold for Scotland as well.
Yes, @Wulfrun_Phil is right. If you're just looking to compare swing versus marginality, then plotting a graph and fitting a line in Excel is good.
A 67% win for sterling over the Euro would be the joint biggest landslide in any national vote in the UK since WW2 alongside the No to AV win in 2011 and the vote to join the Common Market in 1975.
It does show that a substantial minority of Britons are not merely wanting the status quo ante of spring 2016.
Personally, I am not bothered either way. On recent trips to Russia, Sweden and Spain I used electronic money and hardly touched physical cash.
I spent two and a half weeks in the states over the winter, touring through some fairly remote areas at times. I never touched a single dollar. Cash is dead.
Did you not tip anybody? In US, that is seen as more than a tad rude.
You’ve clearly not been to the states for a while. They all have iPads where you just press a screen to add a tip. Done instantly.
I didn't just mean restaurants.
Restaurants, bars, coffee shops, hotels. Everywhere I went, they all had them. Didn’t need a scrap of cash.
You obviously haven't drunk in some the of the dive bars I have....
Funnily enough I didn’t grasp the concept of a dive bar until this visit, whereupon I stumbled into one late night. I still was able to pay an iPad tip however (for a round of tequila with the locals!)
Definitely wasn't a proper dive bar then....for the proper hill billy experience you need to visit one where you aren't sure if it actually inhabited or is what is left after a tornado has hit. And wifi, is short for the wife firing at them for being caught having it away with their sister, not the devils incarnated internet machine.
Ha! It was in central Atlanta (and one of the few good things about Atlanta, along with the superb Optimist restaurant), so not quite up to your standards!!
I do sometimes wonder if the dissolution of the United Kingdom wouldn't be in everybody's best interests.
I'm not sure it's something that I'd especially welcome but it would, at least, be a chance for us all to start over.
It would certainly help us English to finally understand that we are very small country in a sea of great economic powers, and our only future is as part of one of them.
Ha! It was in central Atlanta (and one of the few good things about Atlanta, along with the superb Optimist restaurant), so not quite up to your standards!!
In all seriousness, I don't massively dispute your central claim in regards to use of cash. I virtually never carry cash these days in the UK, and have $ and euro cards which are accepted pretty much everywhere.
I wonder though if it is a wealth thing. If you don't have much money, difficulty accessing banking services, on a meter for the leccy etc, do you still have to use cash for more things?
Where as if you have high speed internet where ever you go via an iCrap phone and multiple bank accounts in multiple currencies, it is a different world.
I do sometimes wonder if the dissolution of the United Kingdom wouldn't be in everybody's best interests.
I'm not sure it's something that I'd especially welcome but it would, at least, be a chance for us all to start over.
It would certainly help us English to finally understand that we are very small country in a sea of great economic powers, and our only future is as part of one of them.
We are the biggest economy in the world bar the US, China, Germany and Japan.
On your argument we should abolish all but 4 of the more than 190 countries in the world and just have economic blocks of the US and NAFTA, the EU, Japan, China, the Arab League, the African Union and ASEAN and Mercosur
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
Does it not occur to those accused of Anti-Semitism that the people they accuse of Islamophobia (& vice-versa) probably feel as innocent as they they do? Both sides feign indignant outrage at the other while applying lashings of nuance to themselves. It would make for a happier world if that were reversed
I do sometimes wonder if the dissolution of the United Kingdom wouldn't be in everybody's best interests.
I'm not sure it's something that I'd especially welcome but it would, at least, be a chance for us all to start over.
It would certainly help us English to finally understand that we are very small country in a sea of great economic powers, and our only future is as part of one of them.
Maybe. I don't know anymore. I don't feel any confidence about the future, regardless of what happens with stupid politics. All of the idiots lie, they're all as malign as they are incompetent and none of them know what they're doing (and that goes, to varying degrees, for everybody else's as well as ours.) All useless, the lot of them. No point in planning for the future. It's going to be fucking dreadful whichever way you slice it, and there's nothing I can do to change it anyway. We can talk about this shit 'til kingdom come, we're all completely powerless. Reasoning, debate, voting, democracy itself, all completely worthless. A total waste of time.
Personally I'm going to do my best to look out for myself and my family, not that there's very much I can do even about that, but I can try. There is literally no point in thinking about or caring about anything else.
On the plus side there's something nice for dinner. Best enjoy these things whilst there's food left in the shops and I can still afford to buy it. Goodnight.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
So it is over then. Over this week things will quiet down, then in a couple of months something else will happen. Predictable that the leadership will pull back, and that will be the reason that everyone else pulls back too.
From the comments on Hodge's twitter - they aren't pulling back
Plus Formby has lied in her letter.
It ain't over yet.
Realistically it is. Formby being untrustworthy is hardly news. An inability of certain Labour members to look with a clear eye at themselves isn't news. Hodge isn't stupid, for all her faults. Launching a legal action over minor points of principle when she has actually got the key thing - a dropping of the case - would be (a) expensive and (b) pointless.
Unless somebody in the Labour Party deliberately libels her, I think this is the end of this part of the action.
My solicitor quoted as an old legal maxim that the most expensive phrase in the English language is "point of principle".
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
And quite possibly ultimately making Farage PM
A country that votes Remain is a second referendum is never going to make Farage PM, or Boris, or Gove, or any other Brexit supporter you could care to mention. There is no electoral future in Brexitism.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
I'm not sure I deserve it. The rather lengthy advice I gave concerned the differences between two datasets, but you were asking about the correlation between two variables, a different point. Consequently @Wulfrun_Phil's advice was better. However my remarks about the Pearson'r product-moment correlation coefficient and the Anscombe's quartet were hopefully helpful.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
How long would Northern Ireland stay in Poundland after a No Deal Brexit? How about Scotland?
"If it's a Yes, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'."
Given the majority of Northern Ireland Protestants voted Leave anyway in the case of Protestant majority counties Antrim and Down indefinitely.
Do any of your fellow Conservative activists share your passion for partitioning Northern Ireland or is it just your own hobby horse?
It is the Conservative AND Unionist Party for a reason.
Protestant majority counties should not be forced into the Republic against their will as the Conservative led government in 1921 accepted when it created Northern Ireland in the first place rather than forcing it into the new Catholic majority Irish Free State
But in a recent poll 50% of respondents agreed that HYUFD was deliberately spreading misinformation about the views of Tory members with 25% responding that he means well but is misguided. This PROVES you are wrong!
So clearly zero polling evidence there then if you just want to be pathetic
About as much as a ConHome survey!
ConHonlme got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on
My stopped clock (a Smiths of derby ex-engine room clock) is correct twice a day.
That was the last time the Tory membership voted on the leader
You keep on saying that, but it sniffs off.
Firstly, there is a chance they got it wrong for the right reasons; this can happen. Then, there is a (IMO massive) assumption that what made it 'right' last time remains unchanged; that with the rise of UKIP and the other massive changes in politics and on the web have not affected its accuracy.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
And quite possibly ultimately making Farage PM
A country that votes Remain is a second referendum is never going to make Farage PM, or Boris, or Gove, or any other Brexit supporter you could care to mention. There is no electoral future in Brexitism.
38% back No Deal Brexit on first preference in the latest YouGov, 46% on second preference.
UKIP could even win a majority on 38% under FPTP, see the Tories in 2015, Labour in 2005 or the SNP in 2017
Seems unlikely to have made it worse, since at the end of the day the main point of contention was the continuing investigation and that has been stopped - that the annoyance and irritation remains due to the apparently disingenuous explanation of why the investigation was stopped doesn't mean it is worse, as such. It's not as though Hodge will be able to escalate things that much in response.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
Can I christen this “Project Frit”?
See the 1993 Canadian general election where the Liberals won and the Progressive Conservatives went from government to fifth place and were overtaken by the populist rightwing Reform Party who won 52 seats with the PCs going from 156 seats to just 2 seats after abandoning their base.
Don't forget either the 2014 Euro election results were UKIP first on 27%, Labour second on 24% and the Tories third on 23%.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
And quite possibly ultimately making Farage PM
A country that votes Remain is a second referendum is never going to make Farage PM, or Boris, or Gove, or any other Brexit supporter you could care to mention. There is no electoral future in Brexitism.
38% back No Deal Brexit on first preference in the latest YouGov, 46% on second preference.
UKIP could even win a majority on 38% under FPTP, see the Tories in 2015, Labour in 2005 or the SNP in 2017
If you think that poll translates into 38% in a FPTP election for a No Deal Brexit party you need your head read.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
Can I christen this “Project Frit”?
See the 1993 Canadian general election where the Liberals won and the Progressive Conservatives went from government to fifth place and were overtaken by the populist rightwing Reform Party who won 52 seats with the PCs going from 156 seats to just 2 seats after abandoning their base.
Don't forget either the 2014 Euro election results were UKIP first on 27%, Labour second on 24% and the Tories third on 23%.
That election has more in common with GE 2017 than the scenario after a second referendum in which the political landscape would be completely transformed.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
No it could well see not only a Corbyn win but the Tories coming third behind UKIP
Can I christen this “Project Frit”?
See the 1993 Canadian general election where the Liberals won and the Progressive Conservatives went from government to fifth place and were overtaken by the populist rightwing Reform Party who won 52 seats with the PCs going from 156 seats to just 2 seats after abandoning their base.
Don't forget either the 2014 Euro election results were UKIP first on 27%, Labour second on 24% and the Tories third on 23%.
That election has more in common with GE 2017 than the scenario after a second referendum in which the political landscape would be completely transformed.
Uh no. An election in which the governing centre right party lost just 12 seats and increased its voteshare from 37% to 42% and stayed in power even if without a majority and where the populist rightwing party went from 12% to under 2% and won 0 seats, has no connection at all with an election where the governing centre right party lost 154 seats and went from 43% of the vote to just 16% and was overtaken by a populist rightwing party which got 19% and 52 seats.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
And quite possibly ultimately making Farage PM
A country that votes Remain is a second referendum is never going to make Farage PM, or Boris, or Gove, or any other Brexit supporter you could care to mention. There is no electoral future in Brexitism.
38% back No Deal Brexit on first preference in the latest YouGov, 46% on second preference.
UKIP could even win a majority on 38% under FPTP, see the Tories in 2015, Labour in 2005 or the SNP in 2017
If you think that poll translates into 38% in a FPTP election for a No Deal Brexit party you need your head read.
YouGov had 38% willing to vote for a rightwing pro Brexit party and 24% for a hard right anti immigration party in the same poll.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
Seems unlikely to have made it worse, since at the end of the day the main point of contention was the continuing investigation and that has been stopped - that the annoyance and irritation remains due to the apparently disingenuous explanation of why the investigation was stopped doesn't mean it is worse, as such. It's not as though Hodge will be able to escalate things that much in response.
She might. She has money to burn and with the pound falling, her wealth increases.
Does it not occur to those accused of Anti-Semitism that the people they accuse of Islamophobia (& vice-versa) probably feel as innocent as they they do? Both sides feign indignant outrage at the other while applying lashings of nuance to themselves. It would make for a happier world if that were reversed
Are you suggesting there is no such thing as anti Semitism in this world? No such thing as islamophobia? Everyone’s innocent?
The truth is it’s very much part of all our DNA to hate. First target of our hatred is what is different than ourselves. Second target is serial winners.
Seems unlikely to have made it worse, since at the end of the day the main point of contention was the continuing investigation and that has been stopped - that the annoyance and irritation remains due to the apparently disingenuous explanation of why the investigation was stopped doesn't mean it is worse, as such. It's not as though Hodge will be able to escalate things that much in response.
It is nothing to do with the Hodge process and everything to do with the complete clusterf*ck that is the Labour Party machine.
Lying about an expression of regret at this time is utterly idiotic. It was called out within seconds.
Dropping the investigation might draw a line under that - but doing it this way has extended the story where it could helped start drawing a line under the whole issue.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Indeed but it's hardly an advert for the success of the Euro and the Irish [like our banks] were very lucky that we were both big enough to bail them out and had our own independent currency to do so with.
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Indeed but it's hardly an advert for the success of the Euro and the Irish [like our banks] were very lucky that we were both big enough to bail them out and had our own independent currency to do so with.
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
Why ? The pound has been tanking since the Euro started.
So it is over then. Over this week things will quiet down, then in a couple of months something else will happen. Predictable that the leadership will pull back, and that will be the reason that everyone else pulls back too.
Until her local clp requests her deselection and loss of the LP whip in the Commons. Checking her constituency FB pages and local newspapers, it isn't far off. She is decidedly not liked by local activists, the supporters and more importantly, the voters.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
I have never argued with the fact that if the Catholic majority counties of Northern Ireland want to join the Republic of Ireland that is up to them. My argument has been the Protestant majority counties of Northern Ireland will not accept being forced into the Republic of Ireland against their win.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Indeed but it's hardly an advert for the success of the Euro and the Irish [like our banks] were very lucky that we were both big enough to bail them out and had our own independent currency to do so with.
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
Why ? The pound has been tanking since the Euro started.
Does it not occur to those accused of Anti-Semitism that the people they accuse of Islamophobia (& vice-versa) probably feel as innocent as they they do? Both sides feign indignant outrage at the other while applying lashings of nuance to themselves. It would make for a happier world if that were reversed
Are you suggesting there is no such thing as anti Semitism in this world? No such thing as islamophobia? Everyone’s innocent?
The truth is it’s very much part of all our DNA to hate. First target of our hatred is what is different than ourselves. Second target is serial winners.
No, I'm not suggesting there are no such things, but that if the people making allegations gave those they are accusing the same amount of leeway they feel they deserve themselves, it would actually be kinder, gentler politics.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
No. I have never argued with the fact that if the Catholic majority counties of Northern Ireland want to join the Republic of Ireland that is up to them. My argument has been the Protestant majority counties of Northern Ireland will not accept being forced into the Republic of Ireland against their win.
It's a completely spurious point because reunification will not come about by the kind of majoritarian triumphalism that has characterised Brexit.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Indeed but it's hardly an advert for the success of the Euro and the Irish [like our banks] were very lucky that we were both big enough to bail them out and had our own independent currency to do so with.
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
We would have had an even more extreme house price boom, and an almighty bust.
Mind you, we would probably have been forced to address our unsustainable economic model a little earlier.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
Indeed but it's hardly an advert for the success of the Euro and the Irish [like our banks] were very lucky that we were both big enough to bail them out and had our own independent currency to do so with.
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
We would have had an even more extreme house price boom, and an almighty bust.
Mind you, we would probably have been forced to address our unsustainable economic model a little earlier.
If Brexit were reversed, would you favour joining the Euro?
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
Don’t get me wrong, if Corbin gets in, it will be an economic rollercoaster, it’s going to be bad. But to say it going to be as bad as Venezuela is just plain embarrassing. A fact based on what exactly? There is no one on earth who will believe PM Corbyn will turn us into Venezuela. To become Venezuela you need to be Venezuela. It’s a lazy type of Project fear. It actually plays to Corbins “outsider” strengths. The right wing press got at Milliband more effectively, for example Two Kitchens meant “he wasn’t one of the people”. That’s the right way to undermine your political opponents. Pushing Corbin = Venezuela thing is just childish. You can show it to me again, but your credibility will diminish in my eyes when you do.
Mr. Eagles, worth pointing out that Fox is a political animal and the Governor of the Bank of England ought not be.
Also, people take Carney more seriously...
Dr. Foxy, alarming to see the damage done to Mogg's property, and a bookshop under attack.
I pointed out the other day The Governor of the Bank of England has a statutory obligation to ensure financial stability and warn when that is at risk.
He was doing his job.
Just like when his predecessor warned about the dangers of too much government borrowing during the last Labour government.
Just changed some money for a trip to Berlin. In the real world, shouldn't we be arguing about whether it is now time to join the Euro rather than even thinking about leaving the EU?
If anyone has an argument for not joining the Euro that doesn't involve invoking arcane knowledge of economics that can't be explained in everyday language, I'd love to hear it.
Greece.
Ireland.
Yes Ireland is a good case against Euro membership. I am assuming you are referring to us needing to bail them out as if they were RBS?
(Yes... except we didn't have any choice but to contribute to the Irish bailout as our own banks were enormously exposed. It was self interest dressed up as altruism.)
The Irish problem wasn't the Euro. It was excessive lending by the Irish banks, funded by UK banks and others, to finance the enormous Irish property boom that then collapsed. The Irish banks were left with billions of bad debts and anxious non-Irish creditors who had taken a risk for higher returns but wanted to be bailed out. The Irish government should have done an Iceland on it.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
No. I have never argued with the fact that if the Catholic majority counties of Northern Ireland want to join the Republic of Ireland that is up to them. My argument has been the Protestant majority counties of Northern Ireland will not accept being forced into the Republic of Ireland against their win.
It's a completely spurious point because reunification will not come about by the kind of majoritarian triumphalism that has characterised Brexit.
Reunification will not come about by dismissing the wishes of Ulster Protestants just as your Hegelian march to the UK being in a Federal EU superstate will not come about by ignoring the working class and lower middle class majority which voted Leave
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
You should make plans... to go to conference and tell every Tory that a second referendum with an option to Remain would be the best way to shaft Corbyn and make sure he never comes to power.
It must be a total coincidence that your plan has the added bonus of shafting the Tory party...
And quite possibly ultimately making Farage PM
A country that votes Remain is a second referendum is never going to make Farage PM, or Boris, or Gove, or any other Brexit supporter you could care to mention. There is no electoral future in Brexitism.
38% back No Deal Brexit on first preference in the latest YouGov, 46% on second preference.
UKIP could even win a majority on 38% under FPTP, see the Tories in 2015, Labour in 2005 or the SNP in 2017
If you think that poll translates into 38% in a FPTP election for a No Deal Brexit party you need your head read.
YouGov had 38% willing to vote for a rightwing pro Brexit party and 24% for a hard right anti immigration party in the same poll.
Ha! It was in central Atlanta (and one of the few good things about Atlanta, along with the superb Optimist restaurant), so not quite up to your standards!!
In all seriousness, I don't massively dispute your central claim in regards to use of cash. I virtually never carry cash these days in the UK, and have $ and euro cards which are accepted pretty much everywhere.
I wonder though if it is a wealth thing. If you don't have much money, difficulty accessing banking services, on a meter for the leccy etc, do you still have to use cash for more things?
Where as if you have high speed internet where ever you go via an iCrap phone and multiple bank accounts in multiple currencies, it is a different world.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
I’m no Corbyn fan but do you realise how ridiculous and hypocritical you are? Let’s refresh our memory: you said that you would consider economic collapse a price worth paying for Brexit. Ugh.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t innovative solutions available with GPS, drones and electronic manifests, but the EU aren’t interested because they want to use NI to pull the UK closer to them.
You see innovation. To the small business who has to make their cross-border shipment drone compatible, it's nothing but an explosion of unnecessary red tape. We already have the perfect political innovation to solve this problem and it's called the EU.
Good point. I reckon the EU saves me about 40 hours paperwork a month.
Our daily reminder to take nearly everything out of the bank and buy gold the moment Corbyn gets his hands on power.
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
Eesh. I’m beginning to wonder whether I should start making plans. I think he’ll bring the shutters down quite quickly.
Don’t get me wrong, if Corbin gets in, it will be an economic rollercoaster, it’s going to be bad. But to say it going to be as bad as Venezuela is just plain embarrassing. A fact based on what exactly? There is no one on earth who will believe PM Corbyn will turn us into Venezuela. To become Venezuela you need to be Venezuela. It’s a lazy type of Project fear. It actually plays to Corbins “outsider” strengths. The right wing press got at Milliband more effectively, for example Two Kitchens meant “he wasn’t one of the people”. That’s the right way to undermine your political opponents. Pushing Corbin = Venezuela thing is just childish. You can show it to me again, but your credibility will diminish in my eyes when you do.
Maybe not Venezuala, Lopez Obrador's Mexico or Tsipras' Greece maybe. In the latter the centre right main opposition New Democracy Party leads the governing populist left Syriza Party in all the latest polls by margins of up to 15%. So a Corbyn government may be bad for the country but maybe not so bad for the Tories after all.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
No. I have never argued with the fact that if the Catholic majority counties of Northern Ireland want to join the Republic of Ireland that is up to them. My argument has been the Protestant majority counties of Northern Ireland will not accept being forced into the Republic of Ireland against their win.
It's a completely spurious point because reunification will not come about by the kind of majoritarian triumphalism that has characterised Brexit.
Reunification will not come about by dismissing the wishes of Ulster Protestants just as your Hegelian march to the UK being in a Federal EU superstate will not come about by ignoring the working class and lower middle class majority which voted Leave
If Brexiteers think they have ownership of "working class and lower middle class" votes they are in for a rude awakening over the next few years.
Yes, I think that’s true to some extent. But the whole concept of cash is flawed when technology makes it unnecessary. It’s decline is unstoppable, worldwide.
Over Protestant majority Counties Antrim and Down's dead body
And assuming - as the poll quoted does - that over 45s will not be allowed to vote in the referendum on a united Ireland!
It may be a while yet!
Very good article. The irony being that "loyal" Brits are hastening the day of a united Ireland.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Actually it just shows the toughest most stubborn and faith driven people in the British Isles and Ireland are now Protestants in Ulster, the Republic of Ireland is increasingly just as largely secular and liberal meterosexual as most of us on the mainland UK are and they are not going to be able to tell the former what to do
Equally the former of Armagh, Antrim and Down cannot tell everyone else what to do either.
No. I have never argued with the fact that if the Catholic majority counties of Northern Ireland want to join the Republic of Ireland that is up to them. My argument has been the Protestant majority counties of Northern Ireland will not accept being forced into the Republic of Ireland against their win.
It's a completely spurious point because reunification will not come about by the kind of majoritarian triumphalism that has characterised Brexit.
Reunification will not come about by dismissing the wishes of Ulster Protestants just as your Hegelian march to the UK being in a Federal EU superstate will not come about by ignoring the working class and lower middle class majority which voted Leave
If Brexiteers think they have ownership of "working class and lower middle class" votes they are in for a rude awakening over the next few years.
You have shown nothing but contempt for the way they have voted in every post you have made. Even now 46% of C2DE voters think Britain was right to leave the EU compared to only 39% who think it was wrong
If the GFA is predicated upon economic integration between North and South, as you claim, then if one party imposes a barrier to economic integration, by joining a single currency zone that the other party refuses to join, then obviously it's relevant.
The GFA seems to mean whatever you want it to mean. You can't point to actual paragraphs that back up your claims, but you just make the claims anyway.
But it's not a barrier - it's exactly the same as the status quo. There were two different currencies before Ireland joined the Euro and there remained two different currencies afterwards, albeit with the option that the UK could join the same currency in the future.
From the GFA:
"Wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples and the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union"
"17. The Council to consider the European Union dimension of relevant matters, including the implementation of EU policies and programmes and proposals under consideration in the EU framework. Arrangements to be made to ensure that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented appropriately at relevant EU meetings. "
The British/Irish Council agreeing to "consider the European Union Dimension of relevant matters" is a very, very long way from either government being committed to remain part of the EU.
Another example is corporation tax. Ireland is a corporate tax haven. Its corporate tax laws are very different from those of Northern Ireland. But, no one supposes that either jurisdiction is expected to harmonise its corporate tax laws.
Comments
Given that there is currently $1.67 trillion of US dollar-denominated cash in circulation, physical currency would appear to be very far from dead. This is just as well. Governments would love to abolish physical currency. If all of our money were held electronically in banks, it would be easy to impose negative interest rates, i.e. effectively to confiscate a percentage of everyone's deposits, whenever the relevant authorities felt like doing so.
Plus Formby has lied in her letter.
It ain't over yet.
Has anyone seen similar dials? There don't seem to be many on Google.
As seen on this forum earlier today.
An egg costs 200,000 times more than a litre of gasoline in Venezuela as the country's economy is ravaged by hyperinflation, it has emerged.
Maduro has announced 29 plans to adjust the price of petrol and regulate sales based on the so-called 'fatherland card' providing access to subsidies.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6032367/Venezuela-price-chaos-gasoline-costs-just-one-Bolivar-egg-costs-200-000-times-much.html
There'll be virtually nothing left to save by the time he's finished with us, but at least one can try to prevent oneself being completely wiped out.
"Their pay is as low as one euro for picking 100kg (221lb) of tomatoes"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45085211
* Use a t-test if the data are numeric and has a normal distribution
* Use a Wilcoxon-Mann Whitney test if the data are numeric and the data doesn't have a normal distribution
* Use a chi-square test if the data are categorical and you have lots of numbers
* Use Fisher's exact test if the data are categorical and you do or do not have lots of numbers
If the two groups can be linked (i.e. both groups have the same people, or it's the same group at two different times), then:
* Use a paired t-test[1] if the data are numeric and has a normal distribution
* Use a Wilcoxon signed ranks test if the data are numeric and the data doesn't have a normal distribution
* Use a McNemar test if the data are categorical
This advice is submitted informally and I will not take any responsibility for any errors. Please make your own checks before proceeding.
https://stats.idre.ucla.edu/other/mult-pkg/whatstat/
https://www.graphpad.com/support/faqid/1790/
Notes
[1] You can also use a one-way repeated measures ANOVA for this but that's over-complicating things
There won’t be any physical infrastructure on the border. There can’t be.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t innovative solutions available with GPS, drones and electronic manifests, but the EU aren’t interested because they want to use NI to pull the UK closer to them.
There may be some traffic cameras here and there.
Unless somebody in the Labour Party deliberately libels her, I think this is the end of this part of the action.
It may be a while yet!
We have a single deficit (where we borrow money as one entity, backed by one economy and one interest rate" and raise tax money as one entity, with one (largely) single benefits system, taxation system, employment legislation system, and transfer money between richer and poorer areas directly.
Europe has differing taxation and benefits systems, placing stresses on the right interest rates for each area and the most appropriate value for the single monetary system, and completely lacks fiscal transfers of money from, say, Germany to Greece, or England to Estonia (or vice versa).
If all that were to exist, a single currency would be sensible.
As a flourish, you might want to calculate the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient: see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_correlation_coefficient
This is the reason why doing a graph first is a good idea:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet
I'm not sure it's something that I'd especially welcome but it would, at least, be a chance for us all to start over.
I wonder though if it is a wealth thing. If you don't have much money, difficulty accessing banking services, on a meter for the leccy etc, do you still have to use cash for more things?
Where as if you have high speed internet where ever you go via an iCrap phone and multiple bank accounts in multiple currencies, it is a different world.
You’ll get a hat tip in a future thread.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45085571
On your argument we should abolish all but 4 of the more than 190 countries in the world and just have economic blocks of the US and NAFTA, the EU, Japan, China, the Arab League, the African Union and ASEAN and Mercosur
Personally I'm going to do my best to look out for myself and my family, not that there's very much I can do even about that, but I can try. There is literally no point in thinking about or caring about anything else.
On the plus side there's something nice for dinner. Best enjoy these things whilst there's food left in the shops and I can still afford to buy it. Goodnight.
Formby's letter has made things worse.
As the article observes: "The theocracy that it was rightly or wrongly perceived to be under
de Valera, which frightened many in the north, is long past. Now under an openly gay Taoiseach of mixed race background, a new modern, self-confident and inclusive Ireland is flourishing in its society as in its economy. Meanwhile it’s the north under the DUP where illiberalism and prejudice are not just rampant but enshrined, all with the support of the Tory Government.
Firstly, there is a chance they got it wrong for the right reasons; this can happen. Then, there is a (IMO massive) assumption that what made it 'right' last time remains unchanged; that with the rise of UKIP and the other massive changes in politics and on the web have not affected its accuracy.
UKIP could even win a majority on 38% under FPTP, see the Tories in 2015, Labour in 2005 or the SNP in 2017
Don't forget either the 2014 Euro election results were UKIP first on 27%, Labour second on 24% and the Tories third on 23%.
The truth is it’s very much part of all our DNA to hate. First target of our hatred is what is different than ourselves. Second target is serial winners.
Lying about an expression of regret at this time is utterly idiotic. It was called out within seconds.
Dropping the investigation might draw a line under that - but doing it this way has extended the story where it could helped start drawing a line under the whole issue.
Austin still appears to be under investigation...
If we had been in the Euro then we'd have been struggling as much as Ireland and there would have been nobody big enough to bail us out.
Mind you, we would probably have been forced to address our unsustainable economic model a little earlier.
Section 9W
Financial stability reports by Financial Policy Committee
(1)The Financial Policy Committee must prepare and publish reports relating to financial stability (“financial stability reports”).
(2)Two financial stability reports must be published in each calendar year.
(3)A financial stability report must include—
(a) the Committee's view of the stability of the UK financial system at the time when the report is prepared,
(b)an assessment of the developments that have influenced the current position,
(c) an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the UK financial system,
(d) an assessment of risks to the stability of the UK financial system, and
(e) the Committee's view of the outlook for the stability of the UK financial system
(4) snipped
(11)Publication of a financial stability report is to be in such manner as the Bank thinks fit.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/11/part/1A
I’m no Corbyn fan but do you realise how ridiculous and hypocritical you are? Let’s refresh our memory: you said that you would consider economic collapse a price worth paying for Brexit. Ugh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Greek_legislative_election
Yes, I think that’s true to some extent. But the whole concept of cash is flawed when technology makes it unnecessary. It’s decline is unstoppable, worldwide.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eswcvhvq60/TimesResults_180723_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
Your own bloody poll shows the folly of treating ‘working class and lower middle class’ voters as some sort of bloc vote.
The British/Irish Council agreeing to "consider the European Union Dimension of relevant matters" is a very, very long way from either government being committed to remain part of the EU.
Another example is corporation tax. Ireland is a corporate tax haven. Its corporate tax laws are very different from those of Northern Ireland. But, no one supposes that either jurisdiction is expected to harmonise its corporate tax laws.