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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fan
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The limits of populism. Will the hard right disappoint its fans’ most ardent hopes again in Sweden?
SD have been top in 5/50 polls in 2018, all conducted by YouGov and Sentio. https://t.co/WnRB9dk9Vg
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Mr. Jessop, whereabouts is that?
On topic: good article, Mr. Meeks. I'm not inclined to bet on this (think I lost out on Le Pen). However, I would add that, whilst not quite the same, Five Star and the Northern League (or whatever it's called) in Italy did live up to the pre-election hype.
That said I think Alistair is on to something here, if you're the favourite in the odds, it seems strange that you are trailing on average in the polls and could even plausibly come third.
[Minor point - it's ahead in 5 polls and tied in a sixth on wikipedia].
But I think there are things that need to be taken out of, for example, the Dutch election. I believe that a lot of the traditional parties were too quiet for too long on the difficulties of integrating migrants - particular those from countries very unlike Sweden or the Netherlands. The voters, by and large, wanted to be listed to on this issue. But they weren't that keen on Geert Wilders as actual Prime Minister. That liked what he said, but they didn't actual want him in charge,
As the traditional parties began to recognise voters' concerns, they left the PVV or the FN for other parties.
Now there is an exception to this: Italy. But Italy - unlike Sweden or the Netherlands - had another kicker, economic stagnation.
So, if the traditional Swedish parties address the concerns of voters about mass immigration from non-European countries, then I suspect the Swedish Democrats will probably fall back. If they do not, then it's hard to know.
At 1.83, I suspect Alistair's lay is a good bet. But I wouldn't bet my - or anyone else's - house on it.
Isn't it better value to bet on the Social Democrats at 2.3 than Lay the Sweden Democrats at 1.89?
We might see further rate rises before March.
I do wonder what it will take for a Labour split though, if the #JC9 get elected and the various motions at Conference pass, the party will have been completely taken over by the hard left bar most of the MPs. I wonder at what point one of the larger unions moves to support SDP2?
Edit - actually in a careful check Serwotka's union is smaller than I thought and the largest unions are led by McCluskey, Dave Prentis and Tim Roache (in that order).
The point stands.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018
I think that there may be an element of people betting with their hearts, as there are quite a lot of people who would like the nationalist right to do well, especially in Sweden (hello SeanT). But betting on the social democrats to come first does look slightly better value than laying the SDs, since they have never had a poll since the last election where they weren't ahead of the non-SD competitors. Another punt worth a look is on the Christian Democrats not making it over the % threshold to get in - nearly all the polling says they'll fall short, but laying them is only 2.36.
I wouldn't bet the house on any of these as we've got the campaign to come, but they look worth a flutter.
A lot of people don’t realise that nine years of interest rates at or below 0,5% is completely unprecedented, and is causing huge distortions in the economy.
More importantly, what would be the values of the new party. To most people who have talked about it, their USP is to be virulently anti-Brexit, but before the next scheduled election that’s going to be a moot point, and a rejoin campaign will have much less support than a Remain campaign does now.
Something we could perhaps do with...
Interesting Atlantic article suggests that the determination to hold down the populist right will stop Macron accommodating anything to do with May’s compromise:
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/08/macrons-plan-to-stop-the-brexit-contagion-from-spreading/566702/
...British officials have failed to grasp that Macron views the EU’s redlines against Brexit as a necessary warning to anyone else wishing to break up the bloc—as a means of dissuading anyone at home from thinking Frexit is even a remote possibility. For Macron, being tough on Brexit is being tough on Le Pen.
Not a lot of detail unfortunately but I think we can see the distortions (esp problems with pension funding, asset inflation, a huge bung to the "haves" at the cost of the aspirational have nots, the desire for "alternative" investments in search of yield and the survival of zombie companies that really should have gone a long time ago freeing up resources for more productive purposes) all around us.
Dr. Foxy, I didn't say 'were', I said 'can be'. I know that's finickity but it is a distinction with a difference.
The problem is that people overinterpret them.
More likely that the Labour Conference will back a #peoplesvote. I can see that being the real conference battle.
Sending May on a charm offensive? What could possibly go wrong?
My understanding is that the "civilised" parties will not work with them and that they will not form a part of the new government even if they are the largest party. It seems to me that this gives people something of a free hit. They can make their protest against the parties who are, in their view, mismanaging immigration amongst other issues without ending up with a quasi-fascist government, a bit like UKIP in the Euros here. I will not be betting on this but they look more like a buy than a lay to me.
Growing up in Demark, I really liked the effect of the rule - it meant that you could cast a precisely nuanced vote, for example in favour of conservative economic policy combined with a pacifist foreign policy, further nuanced by the opportunity to vote for individuals on the arty lists and determine which candidates got the seats that the party won (so you could not just vote Labour but choose between e.g. Corbyn and Umunna). It does lead to post-election haggling, but the parties are expected by the voters to say whether they'll back a left- or right-of-centre government, so you get stable majorities.
People argue under PR you get to vote for a party more closely aligned with your own thoughts. That's probably true but of course that more closely aligned party then has to compromise with other parties to get anywhere near a majority. On balance, I think our broad church approach usually works better.
Yes, Labour Conference is going to be fascinating to watch, in the same way as some people watch F1 hoping for a massive crash at the first corner!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45050933
< / sarcasm > remembering the discussion about dodgy second order derivative statistics from earlier in the week...
Not sure about the Labour Party Conference. MPs have very little say in anything anymore and the party membership seems to me to be solidly behind Corbyn. Some sound and fury no doubt but signifying the usual.
Edit, screwed up the quote boxes, apologies.
We have, as usual, Amazon parcels in our hall at the moment but I for one will not use them.
In the not too distant past, England was used to mean the UK/Great Britain fairly often.
If you check 1966 World Cup footage, there are far more Union Jacks than there are crosses of Saint George.
I do wonder though how far the BoE will be blamed if we do tip into recession next year.
Sweden has banned sex workers and if they had their way they would ban all gambling.
PB readers who like a punt on politics and believe in citizens freedom to either visit or be a sex worker might find choosing between the alt right and the killjoy left it is not a simple decision!
It's all about timing, though. I think it about an even chance that Labour will call for a referendum, but only when the deal is clear. There is a much better chance of getting a majority against any particular deal than against the idea of a deal in general.
But yes, I think interest rates should rise to around 1.5% over the next year and a bit. The Bank needs to reload the monetary chambers. At the moment if we went into a recession there really isn't a lot of monetary wiggle room, getting interest rates up while the economy is in reasonable shape will fix that situation.
Mr. Str, it sounds a bit similar to Germany, where practically every party is to the left of median opinion except the AfD.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Palmer, agree on the chance of a referendum victory against The Deal rather than A Deal, but that cuts the time frame for trying to secure said referendum. You can't win a battle that isn't fought.
Sweden is almost unique in the EU too in almost exactly matching the conditions in the UK before the Brexit vote ie outside the Eurozone and having failed to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 as most EU nations did exacerbating the current concerns over migration fuelling far right populism
Although the young will be a bit happier.
That's great for anyone whose viewpoint is represented by one of those two, of course - competition is vastly reduced.
With PR, you end up getting a Parliament that's fairly representative of all the views of the people, which then has to find a compromise that works for most. You'd think this would piss more people off, but in practice, contentment with their representation is measured significantly higher when people have that extra choice.
https://www.haaretz.com/amp/world-news/.premium-why-corbynism-is-a-threat-to-jews-throughout-the-western-world-1.6339863?__twitter_impression=true
Agree that whatever the proposed deal, there will be opposition to it from all sides, and it’s definitely easier to critique a specific deal than the concept of one.
I start from the presumption that the campaign probably isn't going to make all that much difference either way (most campaigns don't). I also give opinion polls broadly equal weighting in the absence of strong reasons to treat them differently.
I don't discount the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will finish top. Clearly that's very possible. But I don't see it as an odds-on bet or anything particularly close to odds-on given the information we currently have.
As @rcs1000 says, this isn't one to bet the house on. I still maintain it's a value bet.
I don't think anybody who is still a committed member of the Brexitologists is going to be swayed by numbers at this point.
I reckon you're probably okay. Where you are, there is quite a big gap between the cheaper terrace/semi-detached houses and the detached houses a little bit out in the country. I reckon the price of your house is representative of a decent demand for something that's in quite short supply.
They can try to argue its still better than no deal but that May screwed up the negotiations. That would have the small benefit of being true but I am not sure it will be an easy sell. I increasingly see May going into the next election as leader unless she decides herself she has had enough. It does not fill me with joy.
With absolutely no knowledge of what's going on there, I did wonder if the main parties are burying their heads in the sand with respect to the issues driving the Sweden Democrats poll rating.
One quirk is that Rishi Sunak (who he?) is shorter to lay for next Prime Minister (120) than to back for next Conservative leader (180). This is a discrepancy that has persisted for quite some time. Those with suitable balances on both markets might wish to take advantage of this. I'm sure there's a rational explanation for this, but it doesn't seem to involve betting.
They don't keep promises (university fees), and they belie their 'democrat' label by denying the referendum result. The first may be unfair, as all politicians lie, and the second is because they know they're right - so that makes it OK. However, moving from the caring, cuddly party to one of deception and hubris wasn't a good career move.
As for Sweden, they're caught in the same trap to some extent. When threats appear, and some see threats, they witter on rather than facing them.
1) It does so on the basis of a deal that is cordially despised by both Remainers and most Leavers, with no legitimacy and with both groups outraged that it was not put to a public vote.
2) It does so without a deal, with at a minimum considerable short-term disruption and clear majority opposition, and appalling relations with all Britain's nearest neighbours.
I don't see either of those being recipes for Brexit somehow retreating into a matter of historical interest only.
The stabiliser effect will be worth the hassle though, without a currency fall the country would most assuredly fall into a long and deep recession.
The NIESR - analysis that I generally think is as fair as it gets, even though I challenge some of their assumptions - shows growth slowing to about 0.1-0.2% in the event of a no deal on WTO terms.