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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit day party
Looming over the back of all the sound and fury of our day to day politics is the inexorable approach of Brexit day. The 29th of March 2019 will be the day when something happens, maybe. We will start an orderly transition to somewhere, or an abrupt and disorderly crunch into somewhere else. There will be some kind of Brexit that might happen, whether it’s hard or soft (my personal bet is on squidgy). Unless we get an extension, which we won’t, probably. We might keep going with a Mexican stand-off on a falling nuclear bomb waving cowboy hats as we go, MAD all the way down.
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I think Charles is on board with the idea as well.
* [delete as appropriate]
It would go down very badly with some remainers if it was declared as some kind of independance day with lots of rhetoric about being free of the big bad EU and now we can celebrate finally being free.
I think very few would grumble about if it was done in a low key way. Although I don't think I would actually risk it if I was the conservatives, done well it could be okay maybe even slightly beneficial. Some leavers might get a kick out it.
Although if it was a recurring thing and Brexit did go badly then that could become the day to remember the Conservatives messing up.
"sidewalk engineer".
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1024048687998107648?s=19
Though a Bank holiday would be convenient for a mass demonstration for the Rejoin movement, seeing as the second anniversary of the referendum was marked by one of the biggest demonstrations of recent years. One of the more interesting outcomes of the Brexit vote was to activate a significant percentage of the population to evangelical Europhilia in a way we have not seen for decades. Of course, it would have been better if that had happened a couple of years earlier!
There are big repeat demonstrations planned for Lab and Tory ConferencesConferences, as well as for October 20th.
helphinder the second referendum campaign.Brexiteers are "nationalists" who "hate foreigners" and are not "patriots" like those campaigning for a second referendum, Lord Mandelson has said
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/30/lord-mandelson-says-brexiteers-nationalists-hate-foreigners/
As someone famously said "Nothing has changed, Nothing has changed!"
The following was linked to int he previous thread:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labours-democracy-review-backs-online-voting-plan-to-give-jeremy-corbyn-supporters-new-power-over-policy-full-leak_uk_5b5f7a19e4b0de86f49a0174?6jt
Labour is going for internal e-voting.
I read the linked document, and 'security' or 'secure' was only mentioned once.: "The Labour Party should develop secure online voting systems to make it easy and cheap to hold online ballots"
That'll end well ...
How about you submit a thread header?
Sometimes we need to see humour in a situation. For instance, I wouldn't normally find the topic of anti-Semitism amusing, but Jezziah's ludicrous attempts to excuse and deflect criticism about Labour's issues on the previous thread were hilarious.
Mr. Jessop, given how feeble the grasp of the internet and other technology politicians have, it's little wonder they're besotted with the unnecessary daftness of electronic voting.
Mr. L, I think if we ended up remaining there would be both a much bigger party and more bitterness on the other side. We may find out how that goes.
A party with banners declaring May is rubbish could be a way of uniting the nation.
[Actually, technically it was okay. They emailed you a unique link and sent an SMS with a one-time code to be input. For an organisation voting on policy (as opposed to a country electing MPs via a secret ballot) it’s probably alright - providing the leadership don’t then get a report of who voted which way].
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45015893
Not quite the future yet then...
And in other AI news:
"IBM Watson Recommends Unsafe Cancer Treatments"
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/274453-ibm-watson-recommends-unsafe-cancer-treatments
Come to think of it, with the number of online polls there are now, voodoo or not, has anything been reported of Russian respondents, or has no-one even checked? Given the importance of opinion poll results in our democracy -- they drive news coverage; might lead to a new referendum; and even mislead Oxford-educated prime ministers into calling snap general elections -- you'd surely expect them to be a prime target for the KGB. Or CIA. Or whatever the Chinese equivalent is. Just don't mention Mossad!
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/07/31/new-poll-suggests-how-to-tell-when-public-opinion-has-really-changed/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/31/corbyn-brexit-policy-likely-to-be-challenged-at-labour-conference
Carmakers not ready for Brexit, says SMMT as UK sales fall
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/31/carmakers-not-ready-for-brexit-says-smmt-as-uk-sales-fall
A bit like the portfolio of fantasy Brexit options discussed, I suspect none would have support of more than 10-15% of the public. The nostalic British desire for the recent past is likely to lead to Euro-nostalgia, and more than a little Brexit boredom. We've let the genie out of the bottle, and putting the blighter back in is not going to be easy.
Still, if we no deal Brexit, we could always turn (say) Portsmouth into a Chinese tax-free economic zone ...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/jul/31/no-cambodia-left-chinese-money-changing-sihanoukville
Unfortunately, I cannot unsee it.
BINO / Vassal State solves nothing, it takes away all the positives of Brexit while leaving all the negatives.
Radiographers will be put out of business long before cancer specialists, though.
As for Uber, I don’t think it’s really in the self-driving race; its expertise is rather on the customer and fleet management side.
If May gets a terrible deal she may well want a second referendum, and it'd fit the playbook rather well. "Do you want the status quo[ish] or to have all the downsides of memberships with none of the advantages?"
One of the more puzzling aspects about the heat and light over the ECJ is that we shouldn't allow the EU to be judge and jury in its own case, or make British residents subject to the whims of a foreign (and less than trusted) court. This is a fair point.
However, against this in the real world (not the one Commission members see through their rum bottle) we're talking about the ECJ whom nobody pays the slightest attention to. We're ignoring it over votes for prisoners. The French ignored it over our beef ban. The ECB is ignoring it over the Stability Pact.
So all we would have to do in that case is stall for a couple of years, or set up a system of taxation designed to be easy to avoid (maybe hire Juncker as a consultant) and bingo! No financial institutions left in the EU at all.
It would be the most imposing act of national self-destruction since the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor and missed all the aircraft carriers.
But it would also be quite funny.
Let it go Meeks...the rotting pustulating corpse of the EU will be no more than a malodorous waft over the Channel in 2027.
This creates a lot of sound and fury but I think in the middle there will remain a substantial majority who just want to get on with their lives. As we stumble into a softish Brexit there will be irritations and issues. I for one don't believe that the relationship with the EU will be static. We will move closer and further away in different areas and this will form a significant part of our ongoing debate in this country. The wailing on both sides will no doubt continue. But I am hopeful that the noises off will gradually diminish in significance and we will just get on with it. A lot will depend on the quality of leadership we get and that is obviously a concern.
I saw a comment about smacking broads...
You give it a 50/50 chance eh?
A ringing endorsement from the biggest EU-fanboy on the site!
For ardent Remainers, Calamity Jane, The Night My Number Came Up or Carry on Screaming. (EDIT - The Hunger Games would be even better.)
For sensible people, anything but the Last Jedi.
Still, as this seems to be a humorous thread, I can offer this,.,
https://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-labour-left-left-look-to-corbyn/
Traditional left-wing parties across Europe are searching for a savior.
Some believe his name is Jeremy Corbyn.
I'm trying to help you because you seem to be stuck somewhere between Stage 1 and 2 when the vast majority of rational Remainers are well in to Stage 4/5.
He's not the Jezziah, he's a very naughty boy.
I can live with the thought of us all being wizards...
However, in such circumstances the EU itself may not want the UK to remain, and revocation of Article 50, I think, requires the EU to consent.
If May wants us to remain, she needs a deal so bad even many leavers won't want it, but not so wonderful for the EU they won't prefer it to the status quo.
If we ended up leaving with the worst deal since Jovian's capitulation to the Persians, that would have profoundly negative consequences for the UK's immediate future.
Edited extra bit: on a lighter note, I see Newsnight was wibbling about sandwiches last night. Just as well we won't have any, given we'll run out of butter too.
April Fools Day.
Aside from that though there are things to be learned from his approach, for some of them they may already be doomed anyway, give it a shot and go out with a bang. That's too perfect, we must have this holiday!
IMV it's likely to be the opposite: the behaviour of the 'bastards' in the Conservative Party made joining the Euro more likely.
Here's my thinking:
*) The Euro did not exist when Major was in power.
*) The bastards helped give Tony Blair a stonking majority.
*) Tony Blair was sympathetic to joining the Euro, and had a large majority to make it happen.
*) Brown acted as an anchor against joining.
If the bastards hadn't helped so thoroughly destroy the Conservative Party's electoral chances in the mid-1990s, then Blair would have had a much smaller majority, and made the chance of joining the Euro much less (i.e. Major would still have lost in 1997, but not by as much).
Fortunately, whilst Blair was generally sympathetic to joining the Euro, he probably felt it wasn't a battle worth fighting, even with a large majority.
It’s hard to see how the absence of any politically eurosceptic wing at a national level would have led to anything other than British membership of the euro.
It will be fascinating to see who moves on and who continues to act as if the referendum campaign is still ongoing.
The 90s/00s saw the Tories still reliving the Thatcher glories, and the late 00s/early 10s saw the Blairites, without a cause or a leader, pining for something else no longer extant. Who will still be pining for our past membership by 2025?
"The aid sector is guilty of "complacency verging on complicity" over an "endemic" sex abuse scandal, a damning report from MPs has said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45013078
I can't help but think that the same sort of thinking that led this to happen will also be seen in other organisations, including political parties ...
I couldn't have created a better example of 'irony'.
I honestly didn’t expect that to be controversial.
Would be interesting to see some polling. Not on a proxy, but on the actual cultural attachment to it.
It’s not going to happen, as anyone who’s ever designed something complex will say 10% of the effort solves 90% of the problem, the other 90% of the effort is required to solve the final 10%. Their cars are still killing pedestrians, they’ve got an awful long way to go.
Even if the technology gets working, the acceptance of it by all the lawmakers they’ve upset over the years with their taxi service business practices is even further away.
Brexit is going to be at the core of politics for years to come.
Populism is already rampant in the UK, looking for its next outlet. It's not going to trickle away whatever happens with Brexit. The beast is going to be looking for new food.