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Chou en-Lai is supposed to have said that his assessment of the French Revolution was “It is too early to tell.” Sadly, this appears to have been a misunderstanding, but the agreeably placid sentiment was echoed by Jacob Rees-Mogg this week. Asked if he’d resign if Brexit turned out badly, he said it might take 50 years before the full impact was apparent.
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Some will be keen to carry on the austerity and 'pay down the debt'. Others like Boris will want to spend some cash. There may also be divides between those very keen on bonfires of regulation, and others like May who are keener on govt intervention.
For Labour, I agree that Corbyn is well suited to stop banging on about Europe. But will others in his party let it go? Some care too much, and others will find the temptation of an issue where JC is out of touch with his membership too hard to resist.
First, former Brexiteer-in-chief Boris has a pop at Sadiq over crime in London. Will Boris stand for mayor again? I've mooted this before as towards the end of his term at the Foreign Office, he seemed to have entered a non-aggression pact with Number 10.
Second, Javid has told America they can extradite and execute British ISIL members. I'm not sure that will play as well as he expects with MPs but put that to one side. The bigger question is why they cannot be tried in Britain after all the previous government's changes to the law. Remind me, who was Home Secretary then? Javid is setting out his stall for the leadership election to come.
I think that indicates the market for a calm, dogged 1970s socialist undeterrable by adversity, criticism or overwhelming contrary evidence isn't big enough to beat a half-competent government.
If he does win, it'll be for Brexitty reasons, like the conservative coalition breaking apart because the kipper-curious end thinks it was robbed.
It would be a strange strategy to go from Heathrow hiding + Brexit bullishness to then launching a run for mayor.
I think that Nick is a bit optomistic over politics moving on. even if that is what the electorate wants. If the electorate wanted people to stop banging on about Europe then they delivered the wrong outcome 2 years ago. A re-toxified Tory party is not going to shed its albatross easily..
Nick's lead is interesting but complacent; a lengthy restatement of the 'governments lose elections' maxim. Yet if Labour has the advantage there really isn't any sign of it in the polls, going by previous opposition performances against unpopular governments.
Theresa May leaving could help with this - if she goes willingly. She would be seen as the Brexit Prime Minister, and a new PM would provide the moving on that the country needed.
Imagine how an election in autumn 1947 might have been different to 1945 had Eden taken over from Churchill at the conclusion of WWII and a new election not been required so soon.
I don't sense much energy for anything in particular from Labour lately.
Yes Nick, but not as we know it ....
Political turbulence makes forecasting the future rather difficult.
To be honest, I'd settle for being able to forecast F1, but there we are...
Suspect the public will form a general impression. They won't chew over the detail but if they feel they've been betrayed they'll hold onto that.
An interesting factor to consider is whether or not the electorate feel a no deal scenario is just cause for a second referendum.
The public will be sick of it, but the subject won't be going away any time soon.
Or there may not.
So it rather depends what happens. If all is sweetness and light, or at least ‘only politics’ then all will be well. On the other hand, if it isn’t, the then Tories will be seen to own the car crash and they will be in severe trouble.
Others are correct in saying that the government is tired and also that Corbyn-McDonnell-Abbott has limited appeal. The outcome of that is renewal in government should be enough to see the Tories home. Someone like Javid or Raab or Mercer should be able to hold on to the Tory core vote and their new Brexity working class supporters, while also bringing in the floating voters who like someone who seems down-to-earth, professional and dynamic.
https://www.newyorker.com/news-desk/swamp-chronicles/a-theory-of-trump-kompromat
Killing someone in a war zone or when they're believed to be about to commit a suicide bombing is completely different to executing someone at the end of a judicial process.
Mr. Elliot, the EU has just said Chequers doesn't work.
https://www.facebook.com/notes/the-great-brexit-debate/this-is-not-a-betrayal-gove-shouts-at-questioner-at-constituency-meeting/1171834136307079/
As for Labour's prospects at the next general election, certainly the weekend polling suggests if the Tories do not go into the next general election with a committed Brexiteer like Boris Labour will win just because the left will turn out for Corbyn while some of the right will vote for UKIP rather than Tory which matters under FPTP. Though Corbyn is also likely to narrowly beat Mogg the polling suggests as Mogg does not get as many centrist voters as Boris
It would be better if Brexit was something that happened to us. A tsunami that hits, we deal with it and move on.
Only GLA members Shaun Bailey and Andrew Boff and Ealing Cllr Joy Morrissey made the cut
https://www.conservativehome.com/localgovernment/2018/07/exclusive-the-three-candidates-shortlisted-for-conservative-london-mayoral-nomination.html
"Now dear reader before I go on I must explain. Just in case you haven’t already understood. Conservatives are.. well very conservative."
Any small-c 'conservative' would not have voted to leave in the EU referendum. There is nothing 'conservative' in voting for such an uncertain proposition. As we're seeing now.
Brexit is revolution, not evolution. It's why Corbyn's so much in favour of it: it's creating instability and creating opportunities for further change - and ones that may not necesarily be to conservatives' liking - whether small-c or large-C.
A reasonable hypothesis, but there are two contradictory thoughts.
"but on the whole they’re up for a bit of socialism for a change." and "people get that he’s a dogged socialist." The latter phrase is shorthand for he's a a Trot, and they don't do "a bit."
As the famous line in 'Cabaret' nearly says … "Do you still think you can control them, Neil?"
I understand why they need to get a broader alliance on show, but when push comes to shove, jezza won't water down his principles. He no longer wears a string vest, and he's learned to speak politics (better than Mrs May), but he hasn't got a decade to see 'proper socialism' gradually come in the UK, and he won't wait.
What i don't understand is why they'd ever leave Iraq. Why wouldn't the Iraqi state have jurisdiction over crimes carried out on it's soil?
The Iraqis should just string them up like they do with other murders and terrorists.
Whilst I do not particularly disagree with the attacks against these people, it is important for it not to become common or abused.
Or is it genuine?
https://medium.com/@alastair.meeks/dad-59e09b8ec9a2
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666
He is slowly walking the US to war against Iran, something that Jon Bolton will be pushing for no doubt.
He told his base, no more stupid wars in the middle east, but they have probably forgotten that by now.
' “This week Wimbledon is being launched and the people who normally produce the strawberries can’t produce them because the labour force has disappeared because of anxiety about their future status in Britain,” he told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday programme. '
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/87184/hard-brexit-threatens-strawberry-shortage-wimbledon-vince
That really is the only thing I can remember Cable saying during the last year.
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Cambridgeshire
Herefordshire
Surrey
West Sussex
Kent
More interesting was the appearance of plums from Kent.
Isn't July rather early for British plums ?
Indeed?
I was in Boston last week visiting family and we took a taxi to the pub for a meal. The driver was a young Polish lady. Perhaps they've now realised, like the locals, that you can get better wages and conditions by doing something else?
It was a good read.
But I think the consequences of the deal, whatever it is, will continue to impact British politics rather more than you are anticipating. Suppose jobs start being lost in the car industry or in finance and tax revenues fall, suppose regulations are brought in which particularly impact Britain but which we cannot change or even lobby on and so on. Whichever government is in power will be working out the practical and, I suspect, far-reaching consequences of Britain not being in the EU for some considerable time.
Plus you are assuming that the economy will be toddling along in the same way as now and that there will be the rax revenues available to have no austerity etc. That may well be over-optimistic.
Leaving the EU is the start not the end of the process. Even with some sort of deal we have no real idea what happens next and whoever is in power will be forced to think about its relationship with the EU and the wider world in a way which neither of the main parties have really done until now.
And if there is a crash out deal, Brexit will - if possible - consume even more of the available political oxygen than now.
This is not simply a matter of ministers, diplomats and bureaucrats talking in a sealed-off room in a manner that would be familiar to Metternich or Talleyrand. May has gone as far as she will be allowed to go with the Chequers Deal (which has little support from the public and which she has already allowed to be undermined by her MPs). If the other EU ministers accept Chequers as the basis for a deal then it's possible that something could be agreed. If not, then we really are into No Deal territory because there will be no overlap between the two sides' acceptable positions.
If May feels, in such circumstances, pressured by events (and by being away from her MPs, to whom she's never been particularly close), and signs something, she will be No Confidenced and replaced, almost certainly, by a firm Leaver - at the worst possible time for sorting out the mess that will come from a Crash Brexit. On the other hand, if she vetoes any EU deal - and/or the EU vetoes any UK proposal - then we just have a straightforward No Deal fall-out. Neither of these outcomes is likely to take Brexit off the table as a domestic politics issue.
I will, however, confess to feeding a fridge thief some laxative chocolate so I could well believe your dad did the same
Your post assumes the only issue is an agreement with someone else, when I'd think it's about what people think the price woukd be.
And on Chequers, I remain baffled that given the EU are saying no that everyone is just continuing on. Time to commit to no deal, horrible as it may be, May cannot fudge a deal from what the EU have said.
Trumps press sessions come over as if he is in this category; completely. He prefers one to ones and not dealing with groups, he seems to believe a negotiation has to be win/lose and never win/win, press interviews collapse into incoherent rambles when anything above surface level stuff is touched upon.
Could it just be there is nothing to analysis re motives, thoughts, etc and that there is just nothing there or at least nothing more than apparent 'common-sense' driven by simplistic analysis by tabloid type media.
I appreciate I may have contradicted myself!
The complexity, lengthy delays etc are just 2 of the reasons I'm not one of them.
One senior European diplomat told the Guardian that a hard Brexit was inevitable because it was “hardwired into the referendum”.
“I am appalled to see that politicians with a mandate do not fully realise the meaning of what they are saying,” the source said. “There is not much to negotiate because you need to know what you want.”
Not much has changed in 2 years ...
"[Brexit] is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
What May wants is no longer relevant. She's not in control of events and is unlikely to regain control either.
So, if a Corbyn government is likely in the next few years, what would be the best forms of investments? I can imagine he's going to hammer the utilities and finance / banking.
But are there any areas that may *gain* from Corbynite policies? I guess I can't buy shares in trade unions ...
(Note: I; not looking for investment advice; just what people think might be the areas least susceptible to his policies.)
This isn't an arms length transaction between two equal entities.
Jezza as PM would only be able to do what parliament will allow. Labour are unlikely to have an outright majority; Momentum will definitely not have one.
Clearly a work of fiction - that's a moray eel, not a conger.
https://twitter.com/IrishUnity/status/1021143388064829441
Turns out negotiating, which is what the EU does *constantly*, is something they've gotten rather good at.
But even if a fudge is on from Europe's side, it's not really on from Britain's. Political numbers mean that it's something like Chequers or nothing. And as nothing isn't worth talking about, that's why people are 'just carrying on', as you rightly put it.
[Said for a while the far right could credibly rise and there's a plausible path for that to occur. Either no deal or an attempt (successful or not) by the EU to extort a terrible deal for the UK would fit].