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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely.

Read the full story here

rcs1000

What an incredible video: informative, artfully delivered, and enjoyable. Two thumbs up.

asjohnstone

Thanks for the video.

Nothing too terrorising in it, perhaps a bit bumpy but in every ones interest to fix.

Am I correct in thinking HMG would have an extra 40bn though, does no deal = no divorce bill?

rcs1000

asjohnstone said:

Thanks for the video.

Nothing too terrorising in it, perhaps a bit bumpy but in every ones interest to fix.

Am I correct in thinking HMG would have an extra 40bn though, does no deal = no divorce bill?

Yes and no. The 40bn isn't a day one payment: it's roughly 10bn in 2019, 10bn in 2020, then about 2bn a year for the next five years, and then much smaller numbers for the next 40 odd years.

asjohnstone

rcs1000 said:

asjohnstone said:

Thanks for the video.

Nothing too terrorising in it, perhaps a bit bumpy but in every ones interest to fix.

Am I correct in thinking HMG would have an extra 40bn though, does no deal = no divorce bill?

Yes and no. The 40bn isn't a day one payment: it's roughly 10bn in 2019, 10bn in 2020, then about 2bn a year for the next five years, and then much smaller numbers for the next 40 odd years.

Thanks, makes sense

Foxy

rcs1000 said:

asjohnstone said:

Thanks for the video.

Nothing too terrorising in it, perhaps a bit bumpy but in every ones interest to fix.

Am I correct in thinking HMG would have an extra 40bn though, does no deal = no divorce bill?

Yes and no. The 40bn isn't a day one payment: it's roughly 10bn in 2019, 10bn in 2020, then about 2bn a year for the next five years, and then much smaller numbers for the next 40 odd years.

Is it entirely discretionary? Or would there be a certain amount of legal wrangling and going through the courts?

Certainly we would have clarity, and Credit would mean Brexit. We would have reinvented Napoleon 's Continental system.

TheJezziah

rcs1000 said:

What an incredible video: informative, artfully delivered, and enjoyable. Two thumbs up.

I preferred his early work before he sold out and went mainstream...

Interesting as always, the cheesy jokes make me giggle as well.

Doesn't seem like a complete disaster which is good, might be enough to finish off an unpopular government come the next election though.

daodao

Thanks. Interesting and informative video, and not too terrifying.

Some of the consequences would depend on how vindictive/unhelpful the EU and its member states, and other major non-EU countries, behave towards the UK post Brexit. I would expect France/Germany/Spain and the Eurocrats to be particularly nasty/difficult, as would other aggressive self-centred countries such as the USA and China.

However, for Brexit to mean Brexit rather than BINO, it does mean cutting any jurisdiction by the EU/ECHR/ECJ over the UK, with perhaps a few exceptions such as medicines regulations as was conceded last night. Many of the issues that you raise could be overcome by a deal with the EU along WTO lines. However, is this now impossible because of the foolish NI backstop conceded by TM last December? In my opinion, the solution to the latter issue is a 32-county Eire, but that would be over the DUP's dead body so is currently a non-runner.

Roger

There was a lot of protectionism in the film business before the EU made it illegal. For instance you couldn't work in Ireland without using an Irish crew. Pinewood and Shepperton got a new lease of life because the logistical simplicity meant you could work with the best without complication.

Though it's probably in no country's interest to reintroduce restrictive practices I'd be surprised if over time certtain places dont. Quite simply it's a competitive business and the UK punches way above its weight and various other countries would like a chunk of it.

IanB2

FPT:

kle4 said:

mwadams said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Sean_F said:

It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.

When their own leader is missing votes like yesterday’s it really isn’t. The LDs under Cable are ridiculous.

There does seem to be a lot of inter party warfare over Brexit and we have not even talked about labour's Jewish problem

Both parties need to split at this point. These Tory Remainers and Leavers need to go their separate ways. Anna Soubry and JRM being in the same party is a joke. Likewise, in Labour there is nothing binding moderates and Corbynistas together. Chuka Umunna and Cat Smith et al are at totally different ends. Those Corbynistas hate ‘Blairites’ and vice versa.

If we had PR or even maybe AV, STV or French style second ballot both the Tories and Labour would split in 5 minutes, it is only FPTP keeping them together

That's only true if donors/unions stick with the big two, I guess. If half the Tory business money went to breakaway remainers and Unison decided their bread was buttered elsewhere, it'd be a different picture.

Don't we hear every few months that some new party is being floated, and there's big money ready to go for it?

Often when it gets reported even the suggested name is terrible.

Tbf even the LDs tried that for a while.

Roger

PS. There are also tax breaks for joint productions. I know Belgium is a place to go for subsidised film financing.Would this still be open to British production companies?

IanB2

An interesting parallel is 'Black Wednesday', when we fell out of the ERM. A lot of short term bad financial news, changes in interest rates that looked like they might cripple people but turned out to be very short term. In a fairly short period things calmed down, and in the long run most economists seem to argue the outcome was beneficial.

Yet, equally, most political commentators argue it was the seminal event that damaged credibility in Conservative economic competence for years thereafter.

My own recollection is that the really bad news was concentrated into days, not weeks - but there was undoubtedly a media mood of crisis for that period, enough to catch most people's attention. It was during LibDem Conference, as I recall, whose debates were forced off the front pages of every newspaper (;).

No deal Brexit will surely be worse, given that the medium and possibly long run outcomes are likely to be negative as well.

AlastairMeeks

Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

Roger

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

daodao

AlastairMeeks said:

Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

Nonsense. You support(ed) "Project Fear".

DecrepitJohnL

The video identifies a number of issues resulting from our dropping out of EU treaties and agreements but is too complacent they can be easily solved. If they can, why has the government not already announced successor agreements?

As Paul Krugman wrote in a brief NY Times piece on why we need "a" even if not "the" customs union, the problem is cross-border trade friction not tariffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/brexit-meets-gravity.html

rcs1000

Foxy said:

rcs1000 said:

asjohnstone said:

Thanks for the video.

Nothing too terrorising in it, perhaps a bit bumpy but in every ones interest to fix.

Am I correct in thinking HMG would have an extra 40bn though, does no deal = no divorce bill?

Yes and no. The 40bn isn't a day one payment: it's roughly 10bn in 2019, 10bn in 2020, then about 2bn a year for the next five years, and then much smaller numbers for the next 40 odd years.

Is it entirely discretionary? Or would there be a certain amount of legal wrangling and going through the courts?

Certainly we would have clarity, and Credit would mean Brexit. We would have reinvented Napoleon 's Continental system.

Worth noting that we would likely lose our stake in the EIB in this scenario - or perhaps, we'd get paid out at the level we'd bought in. That's a 6-7bn loss.

rcs1000

DecrepitJohnL said:

The video identifies a number of issues resulting from our dropping out of EU treaties and agreements but is too complacent they can be easily solved. If they can, why has the government not already announced successor agreements?

As Paul Krugman wrote in a brief NY Times piece on why we need "a" even if not "the" customs union, the problem is cross-border trade friction not tariffs.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/brexit-meets-gravity.html

Well, from a tax perspective, there is no way to recreate things quickly.

asjohnstone

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Rightly or wrongly I suspect the plight of the advertising industry doesn't draw much sympathy amongst the working class leave voters in the midlands and north of england.

Likewise, the potential for a reduced transatlantic market share for British Airways causes no concern for a worker on a zero hours contract concerned about increased competition in the labour market.

matt

Interesting but you remain sanguine about ultimately sensible behaviour on a significant number of issues. Nothing I’ve seen suggests the (accurately named) Brexit Taliban has any interest in sensible behaviour. They would rather everything burns rather than see a mutually pragmatic compromise.

That’s without considering the behaviour of the EU side.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Will watch the video when rather more awake.

Mr. Matt, it's very unfair to refer to Grieve, Soubry, Wollaston et al. as the 'Taliban'. I hope you reconsider adding to the toxic atmosphere of politics right now.

Roger

asjohnstone said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Rightly or wrongly I suspect the plight of the advertising industry doesn't draw much sympathy amongst the working class leave voters in the midlands and north of england.

Likewise, the potential for a reduced transatlantic market share for British Airways causes no concern for a worker on a zero hours contract concerned about increased competition in the labour market.

Obviously Brexit voters won't care directly about the service sector but as it's one of our biggest earners it's short sighted of them not to. What do they care about?

Bromptonaut

No mention of the potentially catastrophic impact on the UK road haulage industry.

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

“ But the real show stopper is that, under European law, unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year. The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around – in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.”

The ramifications of no-deal will be enormous.

archer101au

daodao said:

Thanks. Interesting and informative video, and not too terrifying.

Some of the consequences would depend on how vindictive/unhelpful the EU and its member states, and other major non-EU countries, behave towards the UK post Brexit. I would expect France/Germany/Spain and the Eurocrats to be particularly nasty/difficult, as would other aggressive self-centred countries such as the USA and China.

However, for Brexit to mean Brexit rather than BINO, it does mean cutting any jurisdiction by the EU/ECHR/ECJ over the UK, with perhaps a few exceptions such as medicines regulations as was conceded last night. Many of the issues that you raise could be overcome by a deal with the EU along WTO lines. However, is this now impossible because of the foolish NI backstop conceded by TM last December? In my opinion, the solution to the latter issue is a 32-county Eire, but that would be over the DUP's dead body so is currently a non-runner.

Any deal that does not make us follow EU regulations as a vassal state is impossible because of the NI Backstop that May foolishly conceded last year. A cynic would say that is why she did it.

The solution is to withdraw the offer of the backstop and simply commit to no hard border if ROI does the same. Then the EU can choose between Deal or No Deal.

Gardenwalker

Watching the video at City Airport from whence flying to Amsterdam where at least two clients are consolidating post Brexit instead of London.

Of course life will go on, it will just go on elsewhere. I think he video is too complacent. U.K. has been intertwined with the EU economy for 40 years. It will take as long to detach. Meanwhile, Brexit acts as a massive tax on the economy.

Also doesn’t talk to the politics.
Brexit was a Pandora’s Box. Once opened, it’s driven politics in increasingly extreme directions and is estranging us from allies in a very uncertain world.

Foxy

matt said:

Interesting but you remain sanguine about ultimately sensible behaviour on a significant number of issues. Nothing I’ve seen suggests the (accurately named) Brexit Taliban has any interest in sensible behaviour. They would rather everything burns rather than see a mutually pragmatic compromise.

That’s without considering the behaviour of the EU side.

The idea that reasonableness would prevail in a No Deal scenario doesn't seem plausible to me. Such an outcome would only take place in an atmosphere of rancour.

A planned WTO Brexit could have occurred with such positive attitude, but that would have to have been the destination from the beginning. A Transition period to such a position would probably still have been nessecary.

IanB2

archer101au said:

daodao said:

Thanks. Interesting and informative video, and not too terrifying.

Some of the consequences would depend on how vindictive/unhelpful the EU and its member states, and other major non-EU countries, behave towards the UK post Brexit. I would expect France/Germany/Spain and the Eurocrats to be particularly nasty/difficult, as would other aggressive self-centred countries such as the USA and China.

However, for Brexit to mean Brexit rather than BINO, it does mean cutting any jurisdiction by the EU/ECHR/ECJ over the UK, with perhaps a few exceptions such as medicines regulations as was conceded last night. Many of the issues that you raise could be overcome by a deal with the EU along WTO lines. However, is this now impossible because of the foolish NI backstop conceded by TM last December? In my opinion, the solution to the latter issue is a 32-county Eire, but that would be over the DUP's dead body so is currently a non-runner.

Any deal that does not make us follow EU regulations as a vassal state is impossible because of the NI Backstop that May foolishly conceded last year. A cynic would say that is why she did it.

The solution is to withdraw the offer of the backstop and simply commit to no hard border if ROI does the same. Then the EU can choose between Deal or No Deal.

'Us' is Australian slang for 'You', right?

Jonathan

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

What an incredible video: informative, artfully delivered, and enjoyable. Two thumbs up.

No alarm? No surprise!

Jonathan

Gardenwalker said:

Watching the video at City Airport from whence flying to Amsterdam where at least two clients are consolidating post Brexit instead of London.

Of course life will go on, it will just go on elsewhere. I think he video is too complacent. U.K. has been intertwined with the EU economy for 40 years. It will take as long to detach. Meanwhile, Brexit acts as a massive tax on the economy.

Also doesn’t talk to the politics.
Brexit was a Pandora’s Box. Once opened, it’s driven politics in increasingly extreme directions and is estranging us from allies in a very uncertain world.

In Berlin, for the third time in a month working in new office. Centre of gravity has definitely moved from London. :-(

SquareRoot

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

Is it April Ist?

Roger

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

It's difficult not to admire Anna Soubry. A real feisty MP. If only we had more like her. A government of national unity would involve the break up of Labour. Corbyn is as much a blocker as Rees Mogg.

Jonathan

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

Is it April Ist?

If only.

kyf_100

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

Sunil_Prasannan

Foxy said:

matt said:

Interesting but you remain sanguine about ultimately sensible behaviour on a significant number of issues. Nothing I’ve seen suggests the (accurately named) Brexit Taliban has any interest in sensible behaviour. They would rather everything burns rather than see a mutually pragmatic compromise.

That’s without considering the behaviour of the EU side.

The idea that reasonableness would prevail in a No Deal scenario doesn't seem plausible to me.

TSE: Well, Mrs May, are you going to stay with the sinking ship?
THERESA: Permission to speak candidly, sir?
TSE: Granted.
THERESA: I don't believe this was a fair test of my Prime Ministerial abilities.
TSE: And why not?
THERESA: Because ...there was no way to win.
TSE: A no-deal situation is a possibility every PM may face. Has that never occurred to you?
THERESA: No sir. It has not.
TSE: How we deal with Brexit is at least as important as how we deal with life, wouldn't you say?
THERESA: As I indicated, Admiral, that thought had not occurred to me.
TSE: Well, now you have something new to think about. Carry on.

Roger

Gardenwalker said:

Watching the video at City Airport from whence flying to Amsterdam where at least two clients are consolidating post Brexit instead of London.

Of course life will go on, it will just go on elsewhere. I think he video is too complacent. U.K. has been intertwined with the EU economy for 40 years. It will take as long to detach. Meanwhile, Brexit acts as a massive tax on the economy.

Also doesn’t talk to the politics.
Brexit was a Pandora’s Box. Once opened, it’s driven politics in increasingly extreme directions and is estranging us from allies in a very uncertain world.

That's a very good post. A mood board. The finances are uncertain. We'll end up poorer. Even Robert concedes that but the damage is much deeper than Sterling and Euros

Gardenwalker

Fun fact.
Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

TOPPING

kyf_100 said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

Yep I much preferred it when, at the cinema, there were only ads for the local carpet warehouse and Indian restaurant.

IanB2

kyf_100 said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

"You'll get better adverts" could have gone on the other side of that bus?

IanB2

TOPPING said:

kyf_100 said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

Yep I much preferred it when, at the cinema, there were only ads for the local carpet warehouse and Indian restaurant.

And the tropical fish shop

SquareRoot

TOPPING said:

kyf_100 said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

Yep I much preferred it when, at the cinema, there were only ads for the local carpet warehouse and Indian restaurant.

Is your memory defective??? in my neck of the woods there were also ads for the Tai Wah?? Chinese Restaurant and some sort of hair removal service..... and of course not forgetting the self promotion of Pearl and Dean

kyf_100

TOPPING said:

kyf_100 said:

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

Of course, the fact that most ads are made for "pan European" audiences is part of the reason most ads are so crap these days. Instead of actually making localised ads with the tastes, preferences and cultural sensitivities of individual countries in mind, ad agencies instead serve us a mushy mish-mash of platitudes and lofty brand purpose that real people can't relate to. A little bit like the EU...

Yep I much preferred it when, at the cinema, there were only ads for the local carpet warehouse and Indian restaurant.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/fun-stuff/best-british-adverts-watch-18-7028152

Nigelb

Bromptonaut said:

No mention of the potentially catastrophic impact on the UK road haulage industry.

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

“ But the real show stopper is that, under European law, unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year. The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around – in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.”

The ramifications of no-deal will be enormous.

Yes, the video does seem to be remarkably complacent about the short/medium term impacts.

No mention of cheese, either...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu

One thing I'm curious about, what falls under the category 'mechanical machinery' ?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281807/largest-export-commodities-of-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Foxy

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

It's difficult not to admire Anna Soubry. A real feisty MP. If only we had more like her. A government of national unity would involve the break up of Labour. Corbyn is as much a blocker as Rees Mogg.

Its not going to happen when JC is serenely sailing on with a 5% polling lead.

Morris_Dancer

F1: maybe half the markets up on Ladbrokes now.

Leclerc is shorter odds than Alonso (1.5 to 1.53) to finish in the points. Quite astounding.

Anyway, no bets catch my eye.

felix

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

It's difficult not to admire Anna Soubry. A real feisty MP. If only we had more like her. A government of national unity would involve the break up of Labour. Corbyn is as much a blocker as Rees Mogg.

One wonders what she had on her morning cornflakes - not milk methinks.

felix

Good video but the morning response along with much else on the news show the lack of balance and measure in the nature of the responses. Even if some of the wildly pessimistic comments are any where near reality surely people must understand that the forecasts of apocalypse now, then or whenever simply roll over most people's heads and encourage them to double down. The level of our politics along with the level of political commentary has surely rarely been this bad.

CarlottaVance

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak......

If the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and defaults to World Trading Organisation rules, prices will almost certainly rise as dairy products, along with meat, attract high tariffs.

A milk product with a fat content of 3% to 6% has a tariff of 74%, while fresh mozzarella is rated at 41% and unripened cheese at 68%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

geoffw

archer101au said:

daodao said:

Thanks. Interesting and informative video, and not too terrifying.

Some of the consequences would depend on how vindictive/unhelpful the EU and its member states, and other major non-EU countries, behave towards the UK post Brexit. I would expect France/Germany/Spain and the Eurocrats to be particularly nasty/difficult, as would other aggressive self-centred countries such as the USA and China.

However, for Brexit to mean Brexit rather than BINO, it does mean cutting any jurisdiction by the EU/ECHR/ECJ over the UK, with perhaps a few exceptions such as medicines regulations as was conceded last night. Many of the issues that you raise could be overcome by a deal with the EU along WTO lines. However, is this now impossible because of the foolish NI backstop conceded by TM last December? In my opinion, the solution to the latter issue is a 32-county Eire, but that would be over the DUP's dead body so is currently a non-runner.

Any deal that does not make us follow EU regulations as a vassal state is impossible because of the NI Backstop that May foolishly conceded last year. A cynic would say that is why she did it.

The solution is to withdraw the offer of the backstop and simply commit to no hard border if ROI does the same. Then the EU can choose between Deal or No Deal.

I think May wants to keep her promises, so has found herself trapped by the backstop. But the amendment to the customs Bill makes it unlawful for Northern Ireland to form a separate customs territory to the rest of the UK. This rules out the backstop (as the Irish times reports). While this could be the death knell for an agreed withdrawal treaty with the EU along the lines pursued thus far, I think it opens up the opportunity for more radical thinking like a unilateral decision to abolish customs and border checks. Of course that must also apply to the rest of the world, not just the EU, under WTO most favoured nation rule.

Foxy

felix said:

Good video but the morning response along with much else on the news show the lack of balance and measure in the nature of the responses. Even if some of the wildly pessimistic comments are any where near reality surely people must understand that the forecasts of apocalypse now, then or whenever simply roll over most people's heads and encourage them to double down. The level of our politics along with the level of political commentary has surely rarely been this bad.

Robert is right, and No Deal Brexit is not the apocalypse. Just as in Greece after their Euro crisis, the sun will come up in the morning, and while my preferred cheese may not be on the shelf, there will be other things in the cupboard to eat. Like many others my own job is secure, and I have arranged my finances to cope wth a few storms.

There is a good deal of difference between a planned No Deal Brexit and an unplanned one though.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: maybe half the markets up on Ladbrokes now.

Leclerc is shorter odds than Alonso (1.5 to 1.53) to finish in the points. Quite astounding.

Anyway, no bets catch my eye.

Morning. I’m half thinking of some sort of strategy bet, so for example backing a safety car and laying Hamilton or backing Red Bull. Any markets that will give a price on “SC or VSC” that you know of?

Recidivist

Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, no, to be concise.

I did consider backing Red Bull for the win, but it's rather down to luck, most likely.

notme

CarlottaVance said:

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Hilarious. Utterly hilarious. Market places are not some carefully planned fragile ecosystem that are in a perpetual state of symbiosis. Market places are in constant flux.

You want to know what the sensible response to such a ridiculous assertion by the Granuiad? “Why do we import butter and cheese when we have the largest dairy industry in Europe?”

Alanbrooke

rcs1000 said:

What an incredible video: informative, artfully delivered, and enjoyable. Two thumbs up.

seconded :-)

Roger

felix said:

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

Soubry calls for a government of national unity. JRM running the country.

It's difficult not to admire Anna Soubry. A real feisty MP. If only we had more like her. A government of national unity would involve the break up of Labour. Corbyn is as much a blocker as Rees Mogg.

One wonders what she had on her morning cornflakes - not milk methinks.

Not cornflakes. Three shredded wheat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSM0QfAQlmc

afcone

This seems to be massively complacent on food, at least in the short-term (I think the government would capitulate to EU demands almost immediately and seek EEA or extended transition). Saying 'no government would vote to starve its population with regulations' doesn't quite cut it.

For food to be delivered from the EU to the UK, it needs to be put on lorries and get through ports. In the event of no deal - regardless of what the UK government legislates - UK lorry drivers lose the ability to drive in the EU. Similarly, ports would collapse on day 1 - just ask the Port of Dover, which has repeatedly warn this. 'We just won't enforce checks!', the Hard Brexiters say. That's irrelevant: the rest of the EU will. They have to, because under WTO rules, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status clause in their trade deals with other states would require them to drop such checks on those other nations as well. Do you really think the UK can demand that France drops all food safety checks on Japan, Canada, Australia etc just to accommodate the UK? Not going to happen.

The simple fact is that if we are outside the customs union and single market, the EU *has* to enforce a border, and no such infrastructure currently exists. Even if the UK decides not to enforce the border (which due to MFN clauses/WTO rules means it would have to do the same for a large number of non-EU countries - not exactly 'Taking Back Control'), our ports will jam up and importation of all goods will surely be affected.

The simple fact is that, absent an agreement, by default we fall out of the legal framework that facilitates imports of many critical goods. I'm sure it will be portrayed by Brexiters as 'punishment' from the EU but it's no such thing - it's just that our entire infrastructure for the past decades has been built around being part of that framework, and it simply will not cope if we get a sudden stop.

(And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, no, to be concise.

I did consider backing Red Bull for the win, but it's rather down to luck, most likely.

Yes, I can’t see RB having the pace to win anywhere except Singapore and Monaco, they’ve picked up wins when others have faltered rather than through having the fastest car.

Now I’ve said that, watch for Mercedes nailing the strategy or RB having the fastest car on Sunday!

felix

Recidivist said:

Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak......

If the UK crashes out of the EU with no deal and defaults to World Trading Organisation rules, prices will almost certainly rise as dairy products, along with meat, attract high tariffs.

A milk product with a fat content of 3% to 6% has a tariff of 74%, while fresh mozzarella is rated at 41% and unripened cheese at 68%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

dairy farmers don't go bankrupt shock

ralphmalph

Nigelb said:

Bromptonaut said:

No mention of the potentially catastrophic impact on the UK road haulage industry.

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

“ But the real show stopper is that, under European law, unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year. The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around – in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.”

The ramifications of no-deal will be enormous.

Yes, the video does seem to be remarkably complacent about the short/medium term impacts.

No mention of cheese, either...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu

One thing I'm curious about, what falls under the category 'mechanical machinery' ?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281807/largest-export-commodities-of-the-united-kingdom-uk/

The first question I would ask about your Statista link is where are the food exports? They seem to be missing.

Fenman

Jonathan said:

Gardenwalker said:

Watching the video at City Airport from whence flying to Amsterdam where at least two clients are consolidating post Brexit instead of London.

Of course life will go on, it will just go on elsewhere. I think he video is too complacent. U.K. has been intertwined with the EU economy for 40 years. It will take as long to detach. Meanwhile, Brexit acts as a massive tax on the economy.

Also doesn’t talk to the politics.
Brexit was a Pandora’s Box. Once opened, it’s driven politics in increasingly extreme directions and is estranging us from allies in a very uncertain world.

In Berlin, for the third time in a month working in new office. Centre of gravity has definitely moved from London. :-(

A hard Brexit will not be a revolution. Companies will do everything they can to avoid disruption. It will instead be a long, slow process of asset transfer and asset stripping until we wake up one morning to find we are receiving food parcels from Romania

notme

Recidivist said:

Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

Since it took the EU 61 years to reach that trade deal, I’m guessing he’s probably got a better chance of doing it in less time.

Morris_Dancer

Welcome to PB, Mr. Cone.

Indeed, no deal at all (for the withdrawal/transition) would be a very bad thing. I agree with you that many would blame the EU. And, to be fair, they'd have some justification. May has dithered, capitulated and kicked the can endlessly. But the EU has been less than reasonable, seeking to conduct a regulatory annexation of Northern Ireland.

There's a significant risk of no deal at all, which is bad for both sides. In the UK, some would blame the EU, others the Government/Conservatives/political class. However, as with the S/Z situation (whereby some falsely believe 'paralyse' to be British and 'paralyze' to be American, whereas both are correct in British English but the latter is only American so it's led to the wrong conclusion by many that the former is the only correct British spelling), that will lead, at least some, to characterise the divide as siding with the UK against the EU or the other way around.

"Whose side are you on?" could become a strong undercurrent in the political atmosphere. It'd be unsurprising if the EU were accused of economic warfare against the UK (and probably the other way around across the Channel/Irish Sea).

Potentially fertile ground for a new, far right movement to grow. Of course, the far left has already occupied Labour's front bench...

kle4

No deal means JRM has won. Oh, that's not what you mean.

ralphmalph

afcone said:

This seems to be massively complacent on food, at least in the short-term (I think the government would capitulate to EU demands almost immediately and seek EEA or extended transition). Saying 'no government would vote to starve its population with regulations' doesn't quite cut it.

For food to be delivered from the EU to the UK, it needs to be put on lorries and get through ports. In the event of no deal - regardless of what the UK government legislates - UK lorry drivers lose the ability to drive in the EU. Similarly, ports would collapse on day 1 - just ask the Port of Dover, which has repeatedly warn this. 'We just won't enforce checks!', the Hard Brexiters say. That's irrelevant: the rest of the EU will. They have to, because under WTO rules, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status clause in their trade deals with other states would require them to drop such checks on those other nations as well. Do you really think the UK can demand that France drops all food safety checks on Japan, Canada, Australia etc just to accommodate the UK? Not going to happen.

The simple fact is that if we are outside the customs union and single market, the EU *has* to enforce a border, and no such infrastructure currently exists. Even if the UK decides not to enforce the border (which due to MFN clauses/WTO rules means it would have to do the same for a large number of non-EU countries - not exactly 'Taking Back Control'), our ports will jam up and importation of all goods will surely be affected.

The simple fact is that, absent an agreement, by default we fall out of the legal framework that facilitates imports of many critical goods. I'm sure it will be portrayed by Brexiters as 'punishment' from the EU but it's no such thing - it's just that our entire infrastructure for the past decades has been built around being part of that framework, and it simply will not cope if we get a sudden stop.

(And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

The only port in trouble is Dover and the Port of Calais has proposed a solution. The others are all expecting increased business.
If the lorries can not drive the containers will be put on a ship to the UK. There seems to be lots of people saying "look the Irish have commissioned that big container ship to avoid the land bridge but the brits will not." Look at the expansion of Rotterdam and Port of London.

Nigelb

notme said:

CarlottaVance said:

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Hilarious. Utterly hilarious. Market places are not some carefully planned fragile ecosystem that are in a perpetual state of symbiosis. Market places are in constant flux.

You want to know what the sensible response to such a ridiculous assertion by the Granuiad? “Why do we import butter and cheese when we have the largest dairy industry in Europe?”

It's a very good question, but we have a trade imbalance of well over £1bn on dairy products, and have for years.
We are not going to miraculously grow a larger cheese industry overnight.

Foxy

notme said:

CarlottaVance said:

Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Hilarious. Utterly hilarious. Market places are not some carefully planned fragile ecosystem that are in a perpetual state of symbiosis. Market places are in constant flux.

You want to know what the sensible response to such a ridiculous assertion by the Granuiad? “Why do we import butter and cheese when we have the largest dairy industry in Europe?”

Farmers are notorious for finding gloom, but Britains dairy industry is not in rude health, being assailed by supermarkets buying milk at prices below the cost of production in a world awash with a dairy surplus:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/farmers-heartbreak-slow-death-uk-8417230

Potentially the British dairy industry would benefit from steep import tarriffs post Brexit, though of course the consumer would not.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GeorgePeretzQC/status/1019337318677835777

FrankBooth

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1019474520665714688

Nigelb

ralphmalph said:

Nigelb said:

Bromptonaut said:

No mention of the potentially catastrophic impact on the UK road haulage industry.

https://fta.co.uk/media/press-releases/2018/june/brexit-britain-on-the-road-to-nowhere-says-fta

“ But the real show stopper is that, under European law, unless an agreement is reached, there will only be 103 international haulage Permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks to Europe each year. The logistics industry is being asked to decide who would get a Permit to Drive if there are not enough to go around – in effect, being asked to destroy the businesses of its international haulage members.”

The ramifications of no-deal will be enormous.

Yes, the video does seem to be remarkably complacent about the short/medium term impacts.

No mention of cheese, either...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu

One thing I'm curious about, what falls under the category 'mechanical machinery' ?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281807/largest-export-commodities-of-the-united-kingdom-uk/

The first question I would ask about your Statista link is where are the food exports? They seem to be missing.

Not entirely - it includes 'cereals' and 'beverages', and what are 'unspecified goods' ?

Scott_P

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

No, it's not credible

Foxy

notme said:

Recidivist said:

Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

Since it took the EU 61 years to reach that trade deal, I’m guessing he’s probably got a better chance of doing it in less time.

Though of course in the meantime, leaving the EU trade deals with Japan, Korea, EBA etc to WTO terms would for some years significantly worsen our terms of trade.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1019480734707437568

kle4

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

The whips seem to have been very on the ball, so it doesn't seem very credible to have been an accident.

DecrepitJohnL

Scott_P said:

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

No, it's not credible

Are you some sort of expert on pregnancy now? Obviously Brandon Lewis and the Tory whips could switch Jo Swinson's foetus on and off between yesterday's votes. Where's Foxy?

kle4

"My lawyers have told me to make an insincere apology to try to save some of my money"

Musk apologises. Even then he seems to focus on the guys 'actions' against Musk. So hes saying his response wasn't justified...but but i get the impression he's still justifying it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44870303

DecrepitJohnL

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/1019474520665714688

Did it work? Has there been a successful precedent for the Brexiteers' staggered resignation tactic?

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

The whips seem to have been very on the ball, so it doesn't seem very credible to have been an accident.

Doesn't pass the smell test. Whips were worried....

HYUFD

I still think May's deal will at least get is a transition deal but interesting to see the potential consequences of no deal nonetheless

JosiasJessop

DecrepitJohnL said:

Scott_P said:

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

No, it's not credible

Are you some sort of expert on pregnancy now? Obviously Brandon Lewis and the Tory whips could switch Jo Swinson's foetus on and off between yesterday's votes. Where's Foxy?

???

I think Scott was saying that it is not credible that Brandon Lewis made an 'honest mistake' when he voted on two bills despite being paired, and that he knew what he was doing.

I think you may have got t'wrong end o't' stick.

Oh, and as the baby was born at the end of last month, it's not a 'foetus' ...

kle4

HYUFD said:

I still think May's deal will at least get is a transition deal but interesting to see the potential consequences of no deal nonetheless

I think you're the only one who believes that, and I include May in that!

JosiasJessop

Musk apologises. Sort of:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44870303

afcone

If the lorries can not drive the containers will be put on a ship to the UK. There seems to be lots of people saying "look the Irish have commissioned that big container ship to avoid the land bridge but the brits will not." Look at the expansion of Rotterdam and Port of London.

I think you illustrate my point well. Yes, there are workarounds - but there is insufficient time to build the infrastructure to do this by March 2019. (It's also hard to fund such infrastructure - as it won't be used if we strike a deal). Eurotunnel handle 1.6m lorries per year, Dover 2.6m. Do other ports have the capacity to suddenly take on an extra 4.2m containers per year? What about those lorries that aren't carrying containers? What if they need permanent refrigeration? What about any company using a just-in-time system, how much delay is there in waiting for a slot to offload the container, load it onto a boat, offload it at the other end? Instead of driving a lorry across the border you now need two lorries and two drivers - do you have access to these? What if your transport workforce is predominantly British?

You can address these issues but they cost money and *take time*. If we crash out without a transition deal now (which, following the ERG amendments, is now my base case - roughly a 60% chance IMHO) there simply isn't time to put this into effect and the short-term impact would be severe.

twistedfirestopper3

Roger said:

Not good for advertising either. Most ads these days that aren't DFS or some local supermarket are pan European. Whether they would still choose to use a British agency and production company to shoot a pan European ad for Sony or panasonic or VW when that psychologic barrier is crossed is something that is at least worrying

I can live without badly dubbed adverts.

Scott_P

JosiasJessop said:

Musk apologises. Sort of:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44870303

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1019482174645563392

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

Funny how most of the 190 countries in the world have no free trade deal with the EU and are not in the single market and customs union and are not considered 'actively hostile to business' by international investors

HYUFD

Gardenwalker said:

Fun fact.
Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too

afcone

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome to PB, Mr. Cone.

Thanks - I've posted here before but it seems to have reset my count to zero as it's been so long. But being heavily involved in my own company's Brexit planning the somewhat sanguine nature of some of the video prodded me into finding my password

Indeed, no deal at all (for the withdrawal/transition) would be a very bad thing. I agree with you that many would blame the EU. And, to be fair, they'd have some justification. May has dithered, capitulated and kicked the can endlessly. But the EU has been less than reasonable, seeking to conduct a regulatory annexation of Northern Ireland.

There's a significant risk of no deal at all, which is bad for both sides. In the UK, some would blame the EU, others the Government/Conservatives/political class. However, as with the S/Z situation (whereby some falsely believe 'paralyse' to be British and 'paralyze' to be American, whereas both are correct in British English but the latter is only American so it's led to the wrong conclusion by many that the former is the only correct British spelling), that will lead, at least some, to characterise the divide as siding with the UK against the EU or the other way around.

"Whose side are you on?" could become a strong undercurrent in the political atmosphere. It'd be unsurprising if the EU were accused of economic warfare against the UK (and probably the other way around across the Channel/Irish Sea).

Potentially fertile ground for a new, far right movement to grow. Of course, the far left has already occupied Labour's front bench...

I agree with all of that. One can simultaneously believe 1) that Brexit was always going to be impossible given the various contradictory claims of the Leave campaign; 2) that the current government has still taken that and made it worse; and 3) that the EU hasn't been exactly perfect either.

I think it's pretty clear that an element of the Brexiters (Farage, Johnson) are already laying the groundwork for a stab-in-the-back myth to explain why economic difficulties arising from Brexit are actually the fault of Remain saboteurs, Eurocrats and immigrants. If we do crash out, I expect it to be a dark time for British politics.

Cyclefree

Morning all.

I see that:-

1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

Have I missed anything important?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1019485520693428226

rottenborough

I'm losing where we are.

Did the Mogg amendment pass (on no separate customs arrangements for NI)?

DecrepitJohnL

JosiasJessop said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Scott_P said:

FrankBooth said:

Why did Jo Swinson's pair - Brandon Lewis - end up voting on two bills? Honest mistake apparently but is that really credible?

No, it's not credible

Are you some sort of expert on pregnancy now? Obviously Brandon Lewis and the Tory whips could switch Jo Swinson's foetus on and off between yesterday's votes. Where's Foxy?

???

I think Scott was saying that it is not credible that Brandon Lewis made an 'honest mistake' when he voted on two bills despite being paired, and that he knew what he was doing.

I think you may have got t'wrong end o't' stick.

Oh, and as the baby was born at the end of last month, it's not a 'foetus' ...

Sorry -- yes I was agreeing but missed off the sarcasm tags. For the avoidance of doubt, I too cannot see how this was an honest mistake: even if the whips did mess up, Lewis himself should have known he was paired, and that this should not have changed between votes on the same day.

MarqueeMark

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

I see that:-

1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

Have I missed anything important?

The garden looks lovely?

ralphmalph

afcone said:

If the lorries can not drive the containers will be put on a ship to the UK. There seems to be lots of people saying "look the Irish have commissioned that big container ship to avoid the land bridge but the brits will not." Look at the expansion of Rotterdam and Port of London.

I think you illustrate my point well. Yes, there are workarounds - but there is insufficient time to build the infrastructure to do this by March 2019. (It's also hard to fund such infrastructure - as it won't be used if we strike a deal). Eurotunnel handle 1.6m lorries per year, Dover 2.6m. Do other ports have the capacity to suddenly take on an extra 4.2m containers per year? What about those lorries that aren't carrying containers? What if they need permanent refrigeration? What about any company using a just-in-time system, how much delay is there in waiting for a slot to offload the container, load it onto a boat, offload it at the other end? Instead of driving a lorry across the border you now need two lorries and two drivers - do you have access to these? What if your transport workforce is predominantly British?

You can address these issues but they cost money and *take time*. If we crash out without a transition deal now (which, following the ERG amendments, is now my base case - roughly a 60% chance IMHO) there simply isn't time to put this into effect and the short-term impact would be severe.

The real question is how close to 100% capacity is Eurotunnel? Can it be upgraded or should alternate routes be being planned/built now?

kle4

Scott_P said:

JosiasJessop said:

Musk apologises. Sort of:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44870303

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1019482174645563392

He apologises like an arsehole because he doesn't mean it. And because he's an arsehole.

I do wonder if he thinks he's so smart only he can notice he doesn't mean it, or if he doesn't care so long as it's enough to forestall legal action.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1019486195305385984

rottenborough

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

I see that:-

1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

Have I missed anything important?

Obama made a speech in S Africa, which left you in despair at this lost world of calm, rational interpretations of the world and its problems.

Gardenwalker

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

Fun fact.
Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too

What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.

Mortimer

rottenborough said:

I'm losing where we are.

Did the Mogg amendment pass (on no separate customs arrangements for NI)?

Yep.