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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee
The best post-Helsinki bets?
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But that press conference made him look either like a man of Corbynite judgement, taking the word of Putin over his own nation's intelligence agencies, or submissive. It's a terrible look either way.
There are many ways Brexit could have been managed; we didn't choose any of them.
But one has only to look at Trump Twitter from the likes of James Woods to Mike Cernovich and everyone in between to see that his supporters aren't changing his minds.
While her contribution to PB was mostly posting links to some truly deranged material, Plato showed us all what it's like on the other side of the looking glass during the last presidential campaign.
I'm now of the mind that it would take actual footage of Trump being peed on in a Russian hotel room with an "I love Vlad" tattoo on his backside to come out to shift the opinion of his supporters. And even then they would probably find a way to defend him.
Trump's behaviour may put off some moderate republicans. But given the partisan nature of US politics, I think it more likely he will shrug this mis-step off and they will rally round him by 2020.
Is there yet any Republican to run against him (and stand a chance against the Trumpite base) ? Most have ruled themselves out by their abject abasement.
His senators and congressmen hate him but his base love him. And his senators and congressmen owe their jobs to his base. So every time Trump does something bad, they tut and condemn for a couple of days then go back to enabling him.
Once you look at the process by which he could be ditched, he seems safe as long as the base continue loving him. And if the base still love him, and he still wants to run, he still gets the nomination.
PS Don't forget to consider the weirdly-possible edge case of "he gets impeached or 25th-amendment-ed and driven out of office, but still wins the 2020 GOP nomination".
Hopefully one of the long-odds tips (which I backed) offered by Mr. Smithson will come off.
Its the same phenomenon with labour moderates accommodating corbyn, and liberal/EEA brexiteers going along with a hard brexit. They chicken out of actual confrontation and end up being tools.
Quite a few thought these would change things, and they didn't. They changed the nature of his base for the worse, and I'm far from convinced that this clear betrayal of his country will make any difference.
Trump's press conference and his comments made him look either weak or stupid. There's no argument that gets around that.
"Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law."
To my mind, the betting opportunity is in backing a 2nd Trump term.
Many of those who are in are all in.
EDIT: Though I guess he wouldn’t be barred if he was 25th Amendmented out rather than impeached, as presumably there is no prohibition there.
However, I do agree that younger voters are less aware of the dangers of socialist bullshit and the benefits of capitalism. The argument was won decades ago but has ceased to be made because it became the consensus.
Hopefully though, his actions - coupled with a more acceptable Democratic candidate - will swing enough voters for him to lose the election.
https://www.quora.com/Can-a-president-run-for-reelection-after-impeachment
Then a 25th Amendment disqualification would be a whole nother can of worms.
Yeah that's a tough one right there....
But those same grumpy youngsters are in love with mass migration too. Of course, voters don't have to make sense.
I'd prefer the next warning about how dangerous socialism can be not to be written in the annals of British history.
Makes a change from his opposition to George W Bush anyway
Indeed it is looking increasingly likely the next US presidential election will be Trump v Sanders and the next UK general election will be Boris v Corbyn, centrists need not apply unless they go third party
The other thing that matters is whether or not Trump can make swing voters feel as if their situations have improved in the last four years. Do they have more money in their pockets? Do they feel safer? Do they feel that illegal immigration is being tackled? (Clearly a huge reason why Trump was elected). These factors will probably sway things far more than Trump's supposed Russian links.
As others have already said we have been here before and few thought he would get a first term. I agree that there is a short term trading opportunity here. Trump will recover. He's the teflon don(ald).
I'm confident about my Trump lasting out the full term bets.
That's one of the reasons things are becoming so divided now, I think. We have people who speak the same language using the same words to mean utterly different things because the definition (or definitions) is so broad it's almost meaningless. Instead of illuminating with precision, the written word can be read in utterly divergent ways. We see the same with 'human rights violations', which can mean everything from North Korean concentration camps to Dale Farm squatters being evicted after a decade of illegal occupation (the UN was displeased).
This has been exacerbated, of course, by social media and the echo chamber effect.
In the US I could also see Bloomberg running as an independent or Kasich on a ticket with a centrist Democratic e.g. Mark Warner of it is Trump v Sanders though as you say FPTP makes a breakthrough more difficult
The base in all the main US and UK parties is flexing its muscles to ensure one of its own gets the party leadership not an establishment figure
Basically, they took hold of the travelling draft and wouldn't let go. Our first major negotiating error right there.
Brexit will be a case study in How To Fuck Up Negotiations 1.01 for decades to come. Both sides have been dog shit.
I'd say the Blair\Campbell continuous erosion of trust in what the government says - adopted by Cameron and Osborne of course - the expenses scandal, the Mandy all get filthy rich and hang the consequences has simply caught the mainstream politicians up.
you can fool some of the people some of the time etc.
Now, why should you believe anything ? The anoraks will do their own research but Joe Public will just think lying bastards and might as well vote for the colourful candidate as at least theres a chance he'll do some of what he says.
The worst SJW is probably about 1/10 as bad as the best Nazi.The Nazi's will support and could easily lead to genocide, the SJW will yap on about some person not using the correct identification for a transexual Jewish black woman.
Although the Morris Dancer definition seems a bit wider and would include newspapers that go after individuals judging by his description.....
As for the American left I think they will work incredibly hard to get their candidate in the presidential race this time, after last time when the centrist candidate lost anyway I think they have a chance. If they fail again then we could well see a rerun of 2016.
The early jumpers were, of course, paranoid that someone would take a look at the parachute and find that it didn't work.
We all expect instant gratification – and it’s politics that’s suffering
Jamie Bartlett"
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/the-lost-art-of-patience/
Nice graphics here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/swing-state-margins/??noredirect=on
Saturation of extreme terminology has also heavily diluted the impact (Nazis and racists being top of the list). It's idiotic and reduces the power of language when it comes to denouncing actual racists and Nazis.
Oh, and drive it on the right.
Is that how YOU buy your cars?
Anyways, even Capitalism has changed over the years as new technologies and knowledge force adaption into new ways. 20 years ago, it would not be possible for many of us in this forum to discuss events with each other, to obtain different views and gather information from so many sources.
New consensuses are being formed, whether classic Capitalism remains is doubtful too many are now questioning the corruption, perceived or not in the system, and they don't like how some avoid the laws and taxes that are enforced on them.
http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reasons-trumps-rise-that-no-one-talks-about/
These people will probably not pay the slightest attention to Trump and Putin, because they will dismiss it as more 'fake news' from the liberal elite. He will still have a very solid support base in 2020.
The pertinent question however is whether he can hang on to those disillusioned democrats in Philadelphia, Michigan and Wisconsin. That might be more difficult. However, it also depends to a huge extent on the Democratic candidate, and with no current clear front-runner that remains (to quote another dodgy Donald) a known unknown.
Taxation is a difficult one to get right. The EU certainly showed how to bugger it up with their VAT idiocy.
Incidentally, just a wondering on the EU: is the EEA/EFTA back as an option?
Both sides bad.
My guess is that that this will ease in the aftermath of his talks with Mr. Putin and possibly offer short term trading opportunities.
Personally, I hate trading bets because I'm useless at judging how markets will move. However, I'd rate the chance of a second Trump nomination at well over 80% and perhaps into the low 90s.
His support among his base is phenomenal and they won't care about the Putin love-in.
That matters because turnout in primaries is low so as long as he gets his support out then he wins, comfortably.
Of course, to get there he has to avoid being impeached, dying or otherwise being removed from office however with partisan divisions as deep as they are, I don't think the chances of a successfully convicted impeachment are at all high and while he's a fat 70-something in a stressful job, he seems to mitigate that by only doing the bits that interest him, when they interest him.
The mere fact that his administration ended mired in chaos and scandal was a minor matter, leading to possibly the greatest non-apology of all time over Iran-Contra.
Admittedly, when it comes to Trump we have the option of blaming a tool...
https://twitter.com/newtgingrich/status/1018967261418344450
Correction Yes, there is something in the constitution that could prevent it but it isn't necessarily invoked upon a convicted impeachment and requires a second vote.
That said, I think if the GOP were willing to go as far as to convict Trump, they'd make damn sure he couldn't run again.
That's not to say that May hasn't cocked this up, of course, just that EU intransigence is not a small factor in things turning out the way they have.
Although to clarify the discussion was based around the worst of the supporters of the American parties so I was talking about the actual neo nazi's who support Trump rather than labelling the republicans in general.
Disagree on the Newspaper angle, although maybe I should say the media in general to use the bit you said 'The other is a politically correct gang of puritans, a mob that descends upon anybody doing or saying anything they deem impure (the professor who lost his job after a joke about female scientists springs to mind) to enforce by bullying their own hyper-politically correct worldview.'
That sounds exactly like the media in our country. Take the way the comments from the founder of Jewdas about Israel were taken...
This may just have been an attempt to smear Corbyn in that case but there is a large gang on the of our right wing media who have their own hyper-politically correct world view who try to bully people into not speaking up about certain countries.
I think the difference in our views is I might see protecting minorities and women as valid whereas you see them going over the top in their protection to the point of censorship and then the reverse when it comes to criticising Israel...
Slightly surprised there isn't more criticism in this thread of (on time-consumption basis) May's decision to hold an election when she did.
Invoking A50 (before we had a feckin' clue what we wanted post Brexit!) truly put all the cards in the EU's hand.
‘Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States: but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law.’
ARTICLE I, SECTION 3, CLAUSE 7
https://www.heritage.org/constitution/articles/1/essays/18/punishment-for-impeachment
The Tories have the same problem if hard Brexiteers stay at home or vote UKIP thus handing the next general election to Corbyn
On minorities, I think Labour needs to get its house in order there regarding anti-semitism. There's also the dread fear (driven by political correctness, of which SJWs are the vanguard) of racism accusations which led to Rotherham-type situations going on for so long and causing so much harm.
CDU/CSU 30.2
SPD 17.5
AfD 16.1
Green 13.0
Left 9.8
FDP 8.6
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Hoping the Dems take the House and seriously go for impeachment in 2019.
Then at some point in the ensuing chaos, I imagine people will overreact and Trump finishing his term will drop to maybe 50% or less.
That's the plan anyway.
The Democrats may be able to cross the line with a centrist such is Trumps unpopularity now but they need to seriously think if it is worth risking another Trump term for it.
Apologies on the apostrophes, not sure what I'm doing with them usually.
Bernie was great as an insurgent candidate against Hillary, who didn't attract much negative campaigning from Hillary (because she didn't want to make it look like she was worried about losing), or from anyone else; nor much scrutiny from the media, who were far more interested in Trump - who was actually winning - than in an unusually successful fringe candidate.
Were Bernie to emerge as a genuine front-runner, the spotlight would be much harsher. And that's before the age issue and his lack of roots in the Democrats.