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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

For the last year or so, one of my favourite betting markets has been the market on Betfair on whether Britain will leave the EU by 11pm on 29 March 2019.  I wrote about it in February and it has been a market that I have returned to regularly over the intervening months.  The price on Yes, Britain will officially leave by that date has shortened considerably since February and as I write last traded at 1.83. 

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edmundintokyo

What does the process for agreeing an extension without a deal look like at the EU end?

YellowSubmarine

FPT

The Survation numbers are " interesting " and they've done an admirable job of turning complex Brexit policy into clear polling questions. But ... There was only 24hrs from the Chequers agreement being published and those numbers coming out. So the poll can only have been in the field for 18 to 20hrs. On a Saturday in July in a heatwave when Engkand were playing. How many real voters have the faintest idea what Chequers is ? The figures are interesting to see what voters think of various choices/trade offs but in all honesty the numbers need taking with a bucket load of salt given the turnaround time.

After Chequers I've gone all Green on Betfair next PM. I think the Tories will now skip a generation even if May goes quite soon. I'll kick myself if Hunt makes it but I do now think they'll want as decicive a break with the current generation as possible.

Mordaunt was an original Leaver and is doing lots of Cameronian PR stuff at DfID and PRIDE events. It could her as the change/continuity candidate vs a change/change candidate who didn't dip their hands in the blood at Chequers

rcs1000

On topic, and without using Google, would anyone (still awake) like to guess what percentage of GDP is made up of "imputed rent".

That is: how much of GDP is the estimate of the benefit we get from living in houses we own?

YellowSubmarine

Re the ' 1945 senario ' where the electorate banks Brexit in 2022 then " cheers Churchill, votes Labour " it was no other than Grant Shapps who predicted this in a sophisticated Mail piece last year.

williamglenn

edmundintokyo said:

What does the process for agreeing an extension without a deal look like at the EU end?

It’s just a council decision by unanimity.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

On topic, and without using Google, would anyone (still awake) like to guess what percentage of GDP is made up of "imputed rent".

That is: how much of GDP is the estimate of the benefit we get from living in houses we own?

10%ish? It’s very high.

YellowSubmarine

edmundintokyo said:

What does the process for agreeing an extension without a deal look like at the EU end?

Quite difficult. You'd need unanimity of the 28, the UK to request it and the 27 to agree. You'd need the UK to still be leaving else it would be revocation not extension, the UK to still want a deal else we'd just walk and all 28 to think an extension would help get a deal else why prolong the agony ? But you need there still to be substantive differences else the cliff edge would have gotten the compromise done in the first place. You'd need passive consent of both Houses of Parliament as altering Brexit Day innthe Wirhdrawal Act needs secondary legislation. And of the UK government as laying the secondry legislation is an executive function.

That's quite a lot of ducks to get in a row. To be too divided to do a deal but to have unanimity over the need for an extension. It's not impossible and Mr Meeks is right to point out the interesting Kurz comments.

Disclaimer: I have backed 29/3/19 as Brexit Day in this market for months and am not cashing out.

YellowSubmarine

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

williamglenn

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

Foxy

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

We haven't won it yet, there is the small matter of two games of football first!

asjohnstone

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

LordWakefield

C2DE 2017 Tory voters will never vote the same way again if this so called 'Mobility Framework' is just FOM re named.

RobD

asjohnstone said:

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

Also wasn't the flag sometimes thought of as a symbol fo the far right?

RobD

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

Foxy

RobD said:

asjohnstone said:

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

Also wasn't the flag sometimes thought of as a symbol fo the far right?

I think only when used in a political context, as indeed is the Cross of St George when used at EDL rallies. In appropriate context such as Royal events, football matches, St George's Day, tourist sights etc flags are fine. No political party or social group has a monopoly of patriotism or power to define what being British, or English, means. Rees Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn are certainly different facets of being English, but neither is more valid than the other.

felix

Foxy said:

RobD said:

asjohnstone said:

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

Also wasn't the flag sometimes thought of as a symbol fo the far right?

I think only when used in a political context, as indeed is the Cross of St George when used at EDL rallies. In appropriate context such as Royal events, football matches, St George's Day, tourist sights etc flags are fine. No political party or social group has a monopoly of patriotism or power to define what being British, or English, means. Rees Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn are certainly different facets of being English, but neither is more valid than the other.

I think with JRM and Corbyn they are more similarly invalid!

rkrkrk

Mentioned previously but I have cashed out. Price had dipped to 1.53/1.65 when I got out.
Probably just being cautious. I suppose another way there could be a delay is if the govt loses the meaningful vote on a deal. Then presumably we might ask for more time?

felix

It's unfortunate if inevitable that all the noise today is dominated by the bremainers and brexiteers. It makes headlines and embarrasses the nation but there we are. Important that Boris et al speak out strongly to support the Government line or shuffle off the stage pronto.

tlg86

Not trying to be wise after the event, Alastair, but I'd assumed all along that you'd been factoring this scenario into your calculations. I think it's a very real possibility. But I think it probably has a general election before Brexit actually happens.

asjohnstone

RobD said:

asjohnstone said:

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

Also wasn't the flag sometimes thought of as a symbol fo the far right?

The union flag? Sometimes. I think it was.

I recall in 96 I got engaged to an English girl from the Cotswolds, when I went there the union flag flew over the village Hall, same as it did over the city chambers in Glasgow.

When I visited the UK last year, they were flying different flags. The breakup of the UK is unavoidable, on both sides of the border the post war generation of people with an "British" identity are aging and dying

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

Charles

rcs1000 said:

On topic, and without using Google, would anyone (still awake) like to guess what percentage of GDP is made up of "imputed rent".

That is: how much of GDP is the estimate of the benefit we get from living in houses we own?

Govt spending c $1.2trn = 40% gdp
Therefore gdp = $3.0tn

Value of U.K. residential housing stock around $7trn @ 5% yield = $350bn

Let’s say 10-15%

You may get marks for showing your working even if the answer Is not correct!

felix

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

Sadly the odds are possibly similar .

Theuniondivvie

asjohnstone said:

RobD said:

asjohnstone said:

williamglenn said:

YellowSubmarine said:

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

If you look at the flags the England fans were waving in our last World Cup semi-final, it's striking how it was mainly Union Jacks in complete contrast to now. Something's definitely changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVn9YLd5HS4

It changed at Euro 96, when England and Scotland were in the same group

Also wasn't the flag sometimes thought of as a symbol fo the far right?

The union flag? Sometimes. I think it was.

I recall in 96 I got engaged to an English girl from the Cotswolds, when I went there the union flag flew over the village Hall, same as it did over the city chambers in Glasgow.

When I visited the UK last year, they were flying different flags. The breakup of the UK is unavoidable, on both sides of the border the post war generation of people with an "British" identity are aging and dying

I believe he meant the Cross of St George.
I think the far right (in England anyway) has moved somewhat from the UF to the Cross of SG over the years.

FF43

The UK will leave the European Union in March next year. The only thing holding it up is the Withdrawal Agreement that unlocks the Transition Arrangement. That in turn depends on the UK agreeing the NI backstop, which the Chequers statement says the UK will do. The NI backstop is problematic but the people the most opposed to it - the DUP, Tory sovereigntists - are also most in favour of leaving the EU.

This doesn't mean there will be a deal on the future relationship. The UK will probably leave the EU without a clear idea of what will happen after the two year standstill "transition". As I wrote yesterday, plus an extra point :

---


Some reflections on the Chequers statement:

1. It is a conjurer's sleight of hand. Theresa May gets people to focus on the future relationship while the critical manoeuvre is the Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is a hard treaty arrangement. If we don't follow through we can be hauled in front the Court of Settlements in the Hague, whereas the "Political Declaration on the Future Relationship Framework" that the Chequers statement links to is every bit as vague as it sounds.

2. The Future Relationship Framework declaration can therefore be as fudged as we like. It's never going to be the treaty but negotiators might refer to it in post-Brexit negotiations if they feel like it.

3. Chequers tells us the government will sign the Northern Ireland backstop so the WA goes ahead. The government will hope the FRF will give cover and credibility to their claim the NI backstop will never be used.

4. The EU should welcome Chequers in its normal bland Eurospeak as a basis of of a FRF subject to blahblah if it moves the WA forward, which is what really matters. EU people are usually tactful when they are getting their way but Barnier is a bit of a loose cannon and the sheer number of parties involved increases the possibility of a row blowing up.

5. Brexiteers have weakened their position by not devising a credible alternative plan for Brexit that people can rally around. As a Remoaner I can see why they didn't. Nevertheless it's a problem for them.

6. No-one is thinking strategically: neither the Govt, the EU nor Brexiteers. The focus is entirely on staggering through to March 29 next year.

7. Theresa May is stretching the truth on her red lines. So "The UK and the EU would maintain a common rulebook" actually means the UK doing whatever is in the EU rulebook. The CJEU wouldn't rule on UK cases because it never has done, even when the UK was a member - a common misconception.

8. The fragile consensus on the future relationship only needs to last until the Withdrawal Agreement is signed - about 6 months.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Huzzah for the Croats!

Does give me a little quandary, though. Just about every bet I've made has failed on the World Cup, but I do have a pound or two on Croatia at 36, and likewise Belgium at 12. Trying to work out how to handle that. Could just hedge, of course.

Could try backing a France/England final. Or backing France/England in their semis, though I suspect those odds would be poor.

Nice problem to have, although many of my bets have failed before now.

MarqueeMark

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

As long as the shock of winning the WC didn't cause HM the Q to shuffle off....

That would be some week.

TheJezziah

Didn't mean to put this after someone asked for advice...

There were a few posts yesterday dismissing Croatia, they are by far the best side we will have faced in this world cup. In terms of footballing ability only Colombia (minus James) came close. We've been a better footballing side than all our opponents so far and better at set pieces.

I think only the latter will be true, Croatia also aren't bad at set pieces. This team beat Argentina 3-0, we could hold out and beat them on set pieces but that isn't what we've been doing so far. They aren't certain to dominate the game (possession wise) but it wouldn't surprise me.

I'm excluding the Belgium game from all the above.

I think France will beat Belgium and beat whoever they face in the final. I'm making the Croatia England game a close call, heart says England head says don't get your hopes up.

AlastairMeeks

tlg86 said:

Not trying to be wise after the event, Alastair, but I'd assumed all along that you'd been factoring this scenario into your calculations. I think it's a very real possibility. But I think it probably has a general election before Brexit actually happens.

No one is infallible. That’s why they put rubbers on the end of pencils.

But I still think this is a good bet even allowing for this permutation at current odds. The British government is neither mad enough nor courageous enough to walk away.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jezziah, I agree France will likely beat Belgium (though, of course, it's not certain).

England will be in for a tough match. It could be the end of the Its Coming Home memes.

TheJezziah

If you want England to win the world cup then a bet on France to beat Croatia in the final would see you win on all sides...

Not financially though.

I said from the start I would be happy with the quarters, to get to a semi final is dreamland already so I won't be too disappointed once it wears off..

If for some reason it isn't coming home!

Edit: Okay not if England got through to the final and France won... ignore me...

ThomasNashe

TheJezziah said:

Didn't mean to put this after someone asked for advice...

There were a few posts yesterday dismissing Croatia, they are by far the best side we will have faced in this world cup. In terms of footballing ability only Colombia (minus James) came close. We've been a better footballing side than all our opponents so far and better at set pieces.

I think only the latter will be true, Croatia also aren't bad at set pieces. This team beat Argentina 3-0, we could hold out and beat them on set pieces but that isn't what we've been doing so far. They aren't certain to dominate the game (possession wise) but it wouldn't surprise me.

I'm excluding the Belgium game from all the above.

I think France will beat Belgium and beat whoever they face in the final. I'm making the Croatia England game a close call, heart says England head says don't get your hopes up.

Largely agree with you about England Croatia, though the hope for England is that Croatia will not have fully recovered from their much more draining match. However, I think Belgium will beat France.

SouthamObserver

TheJezziah said:

Didn't mean to put this after someone asked for advice...

There were a few posts yesterday dismissing Croatia, they are by far the best side we will have faced in this world cup. In terms of footballing ability only Colombia (minus James) came close. We've been a better footballing side than all our opponents so far and better at set pieces.

I think only the latter will be true, Croatia also aren't bad at set pieces. This team beat Argentina 3-0, we could hold out and beat them on set pieces but that isn't what we've been doing so far. They aren't certain to dominate the game (possession wise) but it wouldn't surprise me.

I'm excluding the Belgium game from all the above.

I think France will beat Belgium and beat whoever they face in the final. I'm making the Croatia England game a close call, heart says England head says don't get your hopes up.

The Croatian midfield is world class. Its defence isn’t. The one thing England can’t do is give the ball away like we did in the first 30 minutes against Sweden. It will be very tight. Hopefully, the Croatians will be a bit knackered after two very draining 120 minute games.

TheJezziah

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

ThomasNashe

On topic. The really significant aspect of the Chequers agreement is that it finally showed the Brexiteers are all piss and wind with no workable solution to offer. Boris might think the agreement is a turd, but he still signed up to it and didn't resign. Now May is free to negotiate with the EU without having to worry about what the Brexiteers think.

The resulting Brexit 'betrayal' will have some electoral cost for the Tories, but they know that the electoral consequences of 'no deal' would be far worse for them.

SouthamObserver

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

Mbappe takes France to a different level, but in Alderweireld and Vertonghen he is coming up against a different level of defender, while France are going to have to cope with Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. I make Belgium slight favourites in that one.

I like the look of Kane v Lovren in our game. Modric, though, gives me the fear.

Morris_Dancer

Argh. Just realised I missed an apostrophe above.

TheJezziah

SouthamObserver said:

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

Mbappe takes France to a different level, but in Alderweireld and Vertonghen he is coming up against a different level of defender, while France are going to have to cope with Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. I make Belgium slight favourites in that one.

I like the look of Kane v Lovren in our game. Modric, though, gives me the fear.

It's the midfield for me that elevates France. Pogba, Matuidi and Kante, nightmare to play against. Huge amounts of pace, power and stamina in those 3, not bad footballers either.

Same reason I'm worried about Croatia, Modric is incredible and Rakitic is very good, other parts of the pitch the match up is quite close or in our favour.

Alanbrooke

Latest poll puts AfD on 17% and in joint second place with SPD.

CDU\CSU down across the board with voters saying they have lost their way and Seehofer should resign

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article178968666/Wahlumfrage-AfD-auf-Rekordwert-von-17-Prozent-so-stark-wie-die-SPD.html

NickPalmer

FF43 said:

Some reflections on the Chequers statement:

1. It is a conjurer's sleight of hand. Theresa May gets people to focus on the future relationship while the critical manoeuvre is the Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is a hard treaty arrangement. If we don't follow through we can be hauled in front the Court of Settlements in the Hague, whereas the "Political Declaration on the Future Relationship Framework" that the Chequers statement links to is every bit as vague as it sounds.

2. The Future Relationship Framework declaration can therefore be as fudged as we like. It's never going to be the treaty but negotiators might refer to it in post-Brexit negotiations if they feel like it.

3. Chequers tells us the government will sign the Northern Ireland backstop so the WA goes ahead. The government will hope the FRF will give cover and credibility to their claim the NI backstop will never be used.

4. The EU should welcome Chequers in its normal bland Eurospeak as a basis of of a FRF subject to blahblah if it moves the WA forward, which is what really matters. EU people are usually tactful when they are getting their way but Barnier is a bit of a loose cannon and the sheer number of parties involved increases the possibility of a row blowing up.

5. Brexiteers have weakened their position by not devising a credible alternative plan for Brexit that people can rally around. As a Remoaner I can see why they didn't. Nevertheless it's a problem for them.

6. No-one is thinking strategically: neither the Govt, the EU nor Brexiteers. The focus is entirely on staggering through to March 29 next year.

7. Theresa May is stretching the truth on her red lines. So "The UK and the EU would maintain a common rulebook" actually means the UK doing whatever is in the EU rulebook. The CJEU wouldn't rule on UK cases because it never has done, even when the UK was a member - a common misconception.

8. The fragile consensus on the future relationship only needs to last until the Withdrawal Agreement is signed - about 6 months.

Really good analysis.

Dura_Ace

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the other hand they will be as fit as fuck!

The extra time business is overstated. They will probably just moderate their training activity to compensate.

ThomasNashe

Dura_Ace said:

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the other hand they will be as fit as fuck!

The extra time business is overstated. They will probably just moderate their training activity to compensate.

Modric in particular impresses me in that respect. I recall him going on a run and beating three Russian defenders after some 100minutes on the pitch. Not bad for 32 years old.

Blue_rog

I don't feel too well this morning for some reason. Worth it though.

FrankBooth

Just come across this for the superstitious:

Uruguay France = 13 Letters
Brazil Belgium = 13 Letters
England Sweden = 13 Letters
Russia Croatia = 13 Letters

these games were played on 6th and 7th of July, 6+7 = 13

Add all the above team names together = 52. It's been 52 years since England won the world cup.

Divide 52 by 4 (Number of years the world cup is) = 13. It's been 13 world cups since England won it.

you know what else has 13 letters?????

ITS COMING HOME

It's confirmed!

Sandpit

FrankBooth said:

Just come across this for the superstitious:

Uruguay France = 13 Letters
Brazil Belgium = 13 Letters
England Sweden = 13 Letters
Russia Croatia = 13 Letters

these games were played on 6th and 7th of July, 6+7 = 13

Add all the above team names together = 52. It's been 52 years since England won the world cup.

Divide 52 by 4 (Number of years the world cup is) = 13. It's been 13 world cups since England won it.

you know what else has 13 letters?????

ITS COMING HOME

It's confirmed!

Brilliant!

Sandpit

Mr Dancer, FYI I’m backing No SC at 2.72.

Has been mainly VSCs in the support races, so as long as the first lap goes without incident and everyone’s suspension holds together Mr Maylander should have a quiet day. No rain expected.

Pulpstar

TheJezziah said:

If you want England to win the world cup then a bet on France to beat Croatia in the final would see you win on all sides...

Not financially though.

I said from the start I would be happy with the quarters, to get to a semi final is dreamland already so I won't be too disappointed once it wears off..

If for some reason it isn't coming home!

Edit: Okay not if England got through to the final and France won... ignore me...

Don't write off Belgium

Sunil_Prasannan

FrankBooth said:

Just come across this for the superstitious:

Uruguay France = 13 Letters
Brazil Belgium = 13 Letters
England Sweden = 13 Letters
Russia Croatia = 13 Letters

these games were played on 6th and 7th of July, 6+7 = 13

Add all the above team names together = 52. It's been 52 years since England won the world cup.

Divide 52 by 4 (Number of years the world cup is) = 13. It's been 13 world cups since England won it.

you know what else has 13 letters?????

ITS COMING HOME

It's confirmed!

"Conservatives" has 13 letters too! Spooky!

Sandpit

Thanks for all the wife’s birthday advice on the previous thread. I think I’ll wait until Wednesday before deciding what to do, but I figure that no matter how hard I try there’s precisely no chance of avoiding the result overnight!

Pulpstar

Has anyone from the government resigned this weekend ? I half remember reading Greg Hands did but he's already gone re Heathrow. So was it just a slightly odd dream ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rog, must be the heat.

Mr. Sandpit, hmm. I think there have only been about 2 races without a safety car this year (which makes the Monaco situation even more galling).

I could easily see Williams ending up in the gravel, Hartley's had the suspension problem and Vettel's neck is iffy. But, as you say, it's likely to be dry, and the support race info is interesting.

I shall put a little on it.

MikeSmithson

Sandpit said:

Thanks for all the wife’s birthday advice on the previous thread. I think I’ll wait until Wednesday before deciding what to do, but I figure that no matter how hard I try there’s precisely no chance of avoiding the result overnight!

I've got a similar problem but its the Saturday - and if I don't think I'll give a monkeys about who wins the 3rd place play-off

Pulpstar

I'm not dismissing Croatia if anyone was referring to my post, just noting they look to me like the weakest team left. I can't see any value in the odds, note France are most likely winners (Which I think is right) at this stage.
Croatia have a classy midfield though so I'm certainly not dismissing them. I dismissed Sweden before the match as I felt they were bang average. Croatia aren't, though their last two matches weren't great.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rog, must be the heat.

Mr. Sandpit, hmm. I think there have only been about 2 races without a safety car this year (which makes the Monaco situation even more galling).

I could easily see Williams ending up in the gravel, Hartley's had the suspension problem and Vettel's neck is iffy. But, as you say, it's likely to be dry, and the support race info is interesting.

I shall put a little on it.

Ending up in the gravel is fine with a VSC, so long as there’s not debris all over the track and they don’t need to send out the medical car.

If anyone wants to feel old, Mr Piquet Jr has just beaten Mr Alesi Jr in the GP3 race.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, wasn't Piquet Jr in F1 about a decade ago?

Just in case you weren't feeling old enough

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

I'm not dismissing Croatia if anyone was referring to my post, just noting they look to me like the weakest team left. I can't see any value in the odds, note France are most likely winners (Which I think is right) at this stage.
Croatia have a classy midfield though so I'm certainly not dismissing them. I dismissed Sweden before the match as I felt they were bang average. Croatia aren't, though their last two matches weren't great.

I said I thought England were value to beat Sweden at 1.99 before the match. I think England are value to win again against Croatia in 90 minutes at 2.42.

England have their weaknesses but so do the Croats. If England can keep their heads, they should win in my opinion.

Pulpstar

On topic, I took my stake out of this bet at 1.6 or so - more nerves than Nostradamus. The bet should still win though.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, wasn't Piquet Jr in F1 about a decade ago?

Just in case you weren't feeling old enough

Yes, this is his little brother Pedro. Some great pictures of Messrs Picquet and Alesi senior running around together, they’re obviously still great friends.
Edit: the two old men managed to make it to the podium for the photo!

Morris_Dancer

F1: incidentally, maybe worth considering hedging Bottas/Raikkonen for the win, if you've backed them each way at 17/19 respectively.

I might back England for the World Cup as a sort of Croatia hedge. Hmm.

Pulpstar

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not dismissing Croatia if anyone was referring to my post, just noting they look to me like the weakest team left. I can't see any value in the odds, note France are most likely winners (Which I think is right) at this stage.
Croatia have a classy midfield though so I'm certainly not dismissing them. I dismissed Sweden before the match as I felt they were bang average. Croatia aren't, though their last two matches weren't great.

I said I thought England were value to beat Sweden at 1.99 before the match. I think England are value to win again against Croatia in 90 minutes at 2.42.

England have their weaknesses but so do the Croats. If England can keep their heads, they should win in my opinion.

I'll have to think about that !

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, hmm, wonder if we'll see Pedro Piquet in F1 then.

archer101au

NickPalmer said:

FF43 said:

Some reflections on the Chequers statement:

1. It is a conjurer's sleight of hand. Theresa May gets people to focus on the future relationship while the critical manoeuvre is the Withdrawal Agreement. The Withdrawal Agreement is a hard treaty arrangement. If we don't follow through we can be hauled in front the Court of Settlements in the Hague, whereas the "Political Declaration on the Future Relationship Framework" that the Chequers statement links to is every bit as vague as it sounds.

2. The Future Relationship Framework declaration can therefore be as fudged as we like. It's never going to be the treaty but negotiators might refer to it in post-Brexit negotiations if they feel like it.

3. Chequers tells us the government will sign the Northern Ireland backstop so the WA goes ahead. The government will hope the FRF will give cover and credibility to their claim the NI backstop will never be used.

4. The EU should welcome Chequers in its normal bland Eurospeak as a basis of of a FRF subject to blahblah if it moves the WA forward, which is what really matters. EU people are usually tactful when they are getting their way but Barnier is a bit of a loose cannon and the sheer number of parties involved increases the possibility of a row blowing up.

....

Really good analysis.

A better analysis would explain how May intends to get Parliament to back a NI backstop text that she said would 'never be acceptable to any British PM'! Because your fundamental analysis is correct - the EU will require this and it will legally enforceable but the trade agreement will not. So there are a few issues:

- Will May try to sign the existing NI backstop, or get the EU to accept her time limited version? If the former who will support her; if the latter on what basis do we think the EU will agree?
- The main problem with this whole plan (which I think might be fatal) is that the EU will probably require the NI backstop to remain in law FOREVER - which means if the UK ever either pull out of the new agreement or the UK Parliament tries to exercise its theoretical rights to object to new EU legislation, the backstop would automatically kick back in. How would she ever sell that as the UK taking back control, when the EU basically have the right to annex territory if we exercise our sovereignty in the future?

This plus the excellent Martin Howe QC demolition of this plan, show that she hasn't thought it through - it was just a plan to save her skin, not provide a benefit to the nation.

The ONLY path to a deal involves defeating the EU on NI - always has.

Sandpit

MikeSmithson said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks for all the wife’s birthday advice on the previous thread. I think I’ll wait until Wednesday before deciding what to do, but I figure that no matter how hard I try there’s precisely no chance of avoiding the result overnight!

I've got a similar problem but its the Saturday - and if I don't think I'll give a monkeys about who wins the 3rd place play-off

Yes, that’s the most pointless match of the whole tournament unless you’ve got bets on it.
I’m sure Mrs Sandpit will be amenable to some sort of compromise should the need arise. I hope!

kle4

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

God forbid both happen in the same period. The papers wouldn't know how to play it.

Jonathan

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

God forbid both happen in the same period. The papers wouldn't know how to play it.

HM would take precedent without doubt.

Very glad Russia were knocked out saving us from a political Semi final. Croatia are more dangerous, but we avoid a lot of nonsense.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, run both, highlighting the juxtaposition.

MarqueeMark

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not dismissing Croatia if anyone was referring to my post, just noting they look to me like the weakest team left. I can't see any value in the odds, note France are most likely winners (Which I think is right) at this stage.
Croatia have a classy midfield though so I'm certainly not dismissing them. I dismissed Sweden before the match as I felt they were bang average. Croatia aren't, though their last two matches weren't great.

I said I thought England were value to beat Sweden at 1.99 before the match. I think England are value to win again against Croatia in 90 minutes at 2.42.

England have their weaknesses but so do the Croats. If England can keep their heads, they should win in my opinion.

A Croatia that were taken close by the 80th ranked team in world football - Russia - really shouldn't be a roadblock to England getting to the final.

But as we have to caveat - hey, this is England....

MarqueeMark

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

Butlism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will becompared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

If England win the World Cup - if, if, if - it will be the biggest thing to hit England since the death of Diana in terms of media coverage and popular discourse. I’d say that the only thing which could possibly surpass it would be the Queen popping her clogs.

God forbid both happen in the same period. The papers wouldn't know how to play it.

The nation's recycling would collapse, under the weight of all those souvenir cut-and-keep collectors' edition supplements......

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. kle4, run both, highlighting the juxtaposition.

I was thinking more just how many pages each would get, and the dramatic shifts in tone.

Jonathan

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not dismissing Croatia if anyone was referring to my post, just noting they look to me like the weakest team left. I can't see any value in the odds, note France are most likely winners (Which I think is right) at this stage.
Croatia have a classy midfield though so I'm certainly not dismissing them. I dismissed Sweden before the match as I felt they were bang average. Croatia aren't, though their last two matches weren't great.

I said I thought England were value to beat Sweden at 1.99 before the match. I think England are value to win again against Croatia in 90 minutes at 2.42.

England have their weaknesses but so do the Croats. If England can keep their heads, they should win in my opinion.

A Croatia that were taken close by the 80th ranked team in world football - Russia - really shouldn't be a roadblock to England getting to the final.

But as we have to caveat - hey, this is England....

Modric is class and you can only play what’s in front of you.

Foxy

TheJezziah said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

Mbappe takes France to a different level, but in Alderweireld and Vertonghen he is coming up against a different level of defender, while France are going to have to cope with Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. I make Belgium slight favourites in that one.

I like the look of Kane v Lovren in our game. Modric, though, gives me the fear.

It's the midfield for me that elevates France. Pogba, Matuidi and Kante, nightmare to play against. Huge amounts of pace, power and stamina in those 3, not bad footballers either.

Same reason I'm worried about Croatia, Modric is incredible and Rakitic is very good, other parts of the pitch the match up is quite close or in our favour.

I am a great Kante fan, from watching him for a year at Leicester in the Champions season. Belgium are not going to be able to control the midfield like they did against Brazil. Pogba will cope with Fellani too.

Belgium vs England in the final would be interesting too, Spurs attacking vs Spurs defence. They will know each other well. Indeed, I reckon about 75% of the SF first trainers on Tue and Wed play in the English Premier League.

Russians not too crestfallen after going out apart from one drunk in Russia shirt who lay down in the middle of the dual carriageway from the airport last night. Taxi dodged well.

Off to see the Finland Station, Cruiser Aurora, Peters Cabin, Peter and Paul fortress and Artillery museum shortly when Fox jr finishes his shower. Definitely a boys trip!

OblitusSumMe

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

It won't be talked about exclusively, but it will be there in the foreground of every other discussion. Parallels will be drawn. Inferences made. Unflattering comparisons. Tenuous justifications for absurd conclusions. It will frame the national conversation.

SquareRoot

Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

TheJezziah said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

Mbappe takes France to a different level, but in Alderweireld and Vertonghen he is coming up against a different level of defender, while France are going to have to cope with Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. I make Belgium slight favourites in that one.

I like the look of Kane v Lovren in our game. Modric, though, gives me the fear.

It's the midfield for me that elevates France. Pogba, Matuidi and Kante, nightmare to play against. Huge amounts of pace, power and stamina in those 3, not bad footballers either.

Same reason I'm worried about Croatia, Modric is incredible and Rakitic is very good, other parts of the pitch the match up is quite close or in our favour.

I am a great Kante fan, from watching him for a year at Leicester in the Champions season. Belgium are not going to be able to control the midfield like they did against Brazil. Pogba will cope with Fellani too.

Belgium vs England in the final would be interesting too, Spurs attacking vs Spurs defence. They will know each other well. Indeed, I reckon about 75% of the SF first trainers on Tue and Wed play in the English Premier League.

Russians not too crestfallen after going out apart from one drunk in Russia shirt who lay down in the middle of the dual carriageway from the airport last night. Taxi dodged well.

Off to see the Finland Station, Cruiser Aurora, Peters Cabin, Peter and Paul fortress and Artillery museum shortly when Fox jr finishes his shower. Definitely a boys trip!

If it was a proper boys’ trip there’d be no showering ;-)

Nine Spurs players still at the World Cup. No team has more. The new season starts in five weeks. Gulp.

ThomasNashe

Foxy said:

TheJezziah said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheJezziah said:

That is the one factor I was wondering about fatigue from their game, played extra time twice now as well.

On the down side to that though they should be really confident if it goes to penalties.

Belgium impressed me against Brazil but I think France are a cut above them, although anything could happen.

Mbappe takes France to a different level, but in Alderweireld and Vertonghen he is coming up against a different level of defender, while France are going to have to cope with Hazard, De Bruyne and Lukaku. I make Belgium slight favourites in that one.

I like the look of Kane v Lovren in our game. Modric, though, gives me the fear.

It's the midfield for me that elevates France. Pogba, Matuidi and Kante, nightmare to play against. Huge amounts of pace, power and stamina in those 3, not bad footballers either.

Same reason I'm worried about Croatia, Modric is incredible and Rakitic is very good, other parts of the pitch the match up is quite close or in our favour.

I am a great Kante fan, from watching him for a year at Leicester in the Champions season. Belgium are not going to be able to control the midfield like they did against Brazil. Pogba will cope with Fellani too.

Belgium vs England in the final would be interesting too, Spurs attacking vs Spurs defence. They will know each other well. Indeed, I reckon about 75% of the SF first trainers on Tue and Wed play in the English Premier League.

Russians not too crestfallen after going out apart from one drunk in Russia shirt who lay down in the middle of the dual carriageway from the airport last night. Taxi dodged well.

Off to see the Finland Station, Cruiser Aurora, Peters Cabin, Peter and Paul fortress and Artillery museum shortly when Fox jr finishes his shower. Definitely a boys trip!

Have yo got a ticket for Wednesday?

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1015872549689987073?s=21

FF43

archer101au said:

NickPalmer said:

Really good analysis.

A better analysis would explain how May intends to get Parliament to back a NI backstop text that she said would 'never be acceptable to any British PM'! Because your fundamental analysis is correct - the EU will require this and it will legally enforceable but the trade agreement will not. So there are a few issues:

- Will May try to sign the existing NI backstop, or get the EU to accept her time limited version? If the former who will support her; if the latter on what basis do we think the EU will agree?
- The main problem with this whole plan (which I think might be fatal) is that the EU will probably require the NI backstop to remain in law FOREVER - which means if the UK ever either pull out of the new agreement or the UK Parliament tries to exercise its theoretical rights to object to new EU legislation, the backstop would automatically kick back in. How would she ever sell that as the UK taking back control, when the EU basically have the right to annex territory if we exercise our sovereignty in the future?

This plus the excellent Martin Howe QC demolition of this plan, show that she hasn't thought it through - it was just a plan to save her skin, not provide a benefit to the nation.

The ONLY path to a deal involves defeating the EU on NI - always has.

Possibly. However the people who most object to the NI backstop - Tory sovereigntists and the DUP - are those that want Brexit. So they would have to come up with an alternative, which they have failed to do. The government and all the cabinet have signed up to the NI backstop in the Chequers statement. I expect the backstop to go ahead, but there is certainly risk.

Personally I think the DUP made a big mistake by investing in Brexit. Unionism's friend is the status quo.

Pulpstar

I've got a holiday booked in France.for September, wonder if Froome and the WC boys can both do it

ThomasNashe

OblitusSumMe said:

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

God alone knows how how the World Cup now plays out politically. If we win the country will want to talk about nothing else for months. The driving underground of internal debate on Brexit will both help and hinder. It may free some politicans to make behind the scenes compromises with less intense press scrutiny. But it will also allow voters to tune out of a topic they are bored of rather than come to terms with reduced Cake rations.

But fundamentally every Brexit compromise will be compared to Harry Kane holding the World Cup. Theresa May says this is the best deal she could get on Haddock Quotas but the Three Lions conquered the World. The images of Harry Kane holding excalibre will be captioned " Global Britain ". Many decent leftish footballer lover politicos are in love with their New England but the analysis seems very Remain campaign to me. Has English exceptionalism really become metrosexual once you go passed the M25 ?

And what would inflamed, empowered and vindicated english exceptionalism do to our fraying Union ? All the clever scottish unionists on my twitter feed seem to have spotted the danger but are for obvious reasons being very coded.

An England victory will be very strange politically. Changing the subject of national conversation for months, a welcome lift to most people's spirits, sucking the oxygen from every other topic. Yet rocket fuel for many other forces shaping our politics. English exceptionalism globally, english domination of the UK Union, ( Three ) Lions compared to our Donkey Leaders, the debate over national pride, tabloid culture and ' going alone '.

" It's ( control ) is coming home. 45 years of hurt.

I doubt we'll be talking about an England victory and nothing else for months on end. Maybe a few days, a week perhaps.

It won't be talked about exclusively, but it will be there in the foreground of every other discussion. Parallels will be drawn. Inferences made. Unflattering comparisons. Tenuous justifications for absurd conclusions. It will frame the national conversation.

Even if England lose on Wednesday they've already done enough for the lions/donkeys narrative to take hold.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nashe, haven't got far enough into my current book (WWI history) to tell, but I do wonder how fair that line was, given the emergence and development of technology (planes, tanks, radio, rail, machine guns spring to mind).

kle4

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1015872549689987073?s=21

Does it say if they think a bad deal is better than no deal, however?

volcanopete

The chances of the Remain traitors,Hunt,Javid,could have increased as their leading Leave opponents,Gove,Johnson,are now fully exposed as spineless sell-outs to the Tory membership.Gove is favourite with many bookies and the fav never wins.Lay Gove.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1015877644292968448

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1015868643962441730

FF43

SquareRoot said:

Are the "100 entrepreneurs and business leaders" equivalent to the 364 economists who got it so totally wrong ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44755049

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/3623669/How-364-economists-got-it-totally-wrong.html

Business generally expects to work with whatever environment it finds itself in and is pretty hardy. It's not above special pleading however. In this case it's just pleading. No-one can plan.

Big_G_NorthWales

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/1015872549689987073?s=21

Does it say if they think a bad deal is better than no deal, however?

It was a straight good or bad deal question and the result was predictable

It did not mention no deal and received the result conhome wanted but is not far off a voodoo poll

Gove on Marr comprehensively supporting May

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1015879351420817408

ydoethur

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nashe, haven't got far enough into my current book (WWI history) to tell, but I do wonder how fair that line was, given the emergence and development of technology (planes, tanks, radio, rail, machine guns spring to mind).

Gerard DeGroot suggested they were really 'donkeys led by lions' - hard working, uncomplaining infantry doing all the mucky, boring and dangerous work, while a lot of people up top went around showing off, displaying their wealth and power, but not ultimately being threatening or insightful.

(Incidentally I think senior officers in WW1 are very unfairly maligned by some very political pseudo-historians - most of the myths about WW1 can be traced to Robert Graves, Vera Brittain and Alan Clarke - but that is another story.)

Big_G_NorthWales

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1015879351420817408

Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1015877644292968448

He's a very interesting politician is Michael Gove. Love him or loathe him he not only has ideas, but he can also be pretty unpredictable, for better or worse. He really stands out in many ways.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1015880197214736384

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Doethur, yeah, I've heard similar things before. It's not my area, so it'll be interesting to see what Liddell Hart has to say.

His preamble comments on Schlieffen's plan and Moltke cocking it up were rather interesting.

Recidivist

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Nashe, haven't got far enough into my current book (WWI history) to tell, but I do wonder how fair that line was, given the emergence and development of technology (planes, tanks, radio, rail, machine guns spring to mind).

I read a book on World War One once. I thought I'd get it finished by Christmas, but I got bogged down in it.

Scott_P

kle4 said:

He's a very interesting politician is Michael Gove. Love him or loathe him he not only has ideas, but he can also be pretty unpredictable, for better or worse. He really stands out in many ways.

His actions since the referendum was called demonstrate you couldn't trust him to tell you if it was raining while standing in a puddle.

That may make him a better politician than his colleagues, but not a popular one.

SouthamObserver

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1015879351420817408

Gove's interview with Marr demonstrates Gove's intellect. He knows his subject and is persuasive

A deal that ignores Services is very bad for business. That’s why there is more ground for the government to give.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1015880803610439680

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1015880923060035584

Jonathan

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1015877644292968448

He's a very interesting politician is Michael Gove. Love him or loathe him he not only has ideas, but he can also be pretty unpredictable, for better or worse. He really stands out in many ways.

He’s clearly intellectually bright, hugely ambitious (Mrs Gove), but a little precarious on the sanity front.

kle4

Scott_P said:

kle4 said:

He's a very interesting politician is Michael Gove. Love him or loathe him he not only has ideas, but he can also be pretty unpredictable, for better or worse. He really stands out in many ways.

His actions since the referendum was called demonstrate you couldn't trust him to tell you if it was raining while standing in a puddle.

That may make him a better politician than his colleagues, but not a popular one.

Oh that is probably true, and I don't see that he would be a good leader of a party, I just think he is interesting.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1015881550934749185

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1015881384194387969