I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
The poll was done today and the detail polling is shocking for Boris
who the bloody hell was answering polling questions today?
I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home, in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
I now have a potentially annoying conundrum. Next Sunday, 15th, is Mrs Sandpit’s birthday. I never thought that England might be actually playing in the final, and booked a nice restaurant. Thankfully she doesn’t know yet.
So, do I cancel and cook her a steak at home (with the footy on in the background), let it run and hope that either we don’t qualify or they put up a TV to watch the game, or book an hotel for the following weekend (which I have done already, the QEII) and run off to the pub to watch the match?
Wait until you know whether they are through and then ask...
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
How do you go from voting Remain in 2016 to being happy to see 6 years of hard left government if it's the price of Brexit?
I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
The polling was done today
Yes as corrected in my later post, it is clearly a Tory Leaver protest vote as reinforced by most Leavers in the poll opposing the Chequers deal. The fact the LDs are up more than Corbyn Labour too forces that, though of course there is little logic in shifting from Tory to LD to oppose soft Brexit in my experience most Tories would rather go LD than Labour
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
It didn't stop him getting 40% last time. A few % not fearing that, or thinking he would not be able to do that even if he wants, will be all it takes. I think you underestimate how much some may hit back at the Tories over Brexit.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
The Tories are trying to outbid him with their own boiled egg brand of crazy.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
The Tories are trying to outbid him with their own boiled egg brand of crazy.
Mogg does best there astonishingly with 20% more likely to vote Tory under him, just ahead of 19% more likely to vote Tory under Boris.
Gove does worst with 37% less likely to vote Tory under him, Hunt and Boris also have high negatives too with 30% less likely to vote Tory under them, though Boris has higher positives than both
OT I'm trying to price up the World Cup but cannot see any value in the available prices which are: 2/1 France 5/2 England 11/4 Belgium 4/1 Croatia
What I expect to happen is that either France or Belgium (and probably France) will beat England in the final, which makes pricing it up trickier.France looks to have more potential match-winners in more positions in its side than do the other countries. England has the easiest semi-final. Maybe things will look clearer tomorrow.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
The Tories are trying to outbid him with their own boiled egg brand of crazy.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
As "capitalism" has caused people to be denied their democratic voice after they voted for Brexit and have seen that decision thrown in the trash by Theresa May don't expect people to come out in droves in support of capitalism from now on...
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious things are in this country now Big-G.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Forget Venezuela, Mexico now has one of Corbyn's pals in charge as well
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
It didn't stop him getting 40% last time. A few % not fearing that, or thinking he would not be able to do that even if he wants, will be all it takes. I think you underestimate how much some may hit back at the Tories over Brexit.
A vocal minoriety. I did not support Brexit but voted tory in 2017. I know others who did the same.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
It didn't stop him getting 40% last time. A few % not fearing that, or thinking he would not be able to do that even if he wants, will be all it takes. I think you underestimate how much some may hit back at the Tories over Brexit.
A vocal minoriety. I did not support Brexit but voted tory in 2017. I know others who did the same.
I know plenty did and still would. I meant the backlash from Brexit decisions like Friday's. Some are clearly very very unhappy. Will they carry out the threats we saw from some on here about voting Corbyn to punish the Tories for too soft a Brexit? Not as many will as will think about it, but clearly some are thinking about it so some number will. Will the Tories have people to replace those?
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
As "capitalism" has caused people to be denied their democratic voice after they voted for Brexit and have seen that decision thrown in the trash don't expect people to come out in droves in support of capitalism from now on...
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious are in this country now Big-G.
I know the Country is divided but I also know hard Brexit is a disaster in the making and simply will not get through the HOC.
The Brexiteers behaviour is only increasing the probability of the HOC voting for a second referendum which leave would lose now by some margin
Boris will be interested to know most voters think he should have resigned and most Leavers think the Chequers deal is a bad deal although Remainers approve of it by a clear majority.
Oberall the voters are split in it and still split on Brexit it seems
A plurality of both Leavers and Remainers say it's the wrong deal for Britain.
No, a plurality of Leavers think it wrong a plurality of Remainers support it, you are looking at polling on May's overall EU approach
I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
The poll was done today and the detail polling is shocking for Boris
It is not shocking for Boris, he has the second best 'more likely to vote Tory under' rating after Mogg
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
I don't know who is answering such detailed questions about the deal. Even for me the answers would most be "DK". It's way too early to start getting a read on the deal, we should wait a week or so at least IMO.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
As "capitalism" has caused people to be denied their democratic voice after they voted for Brexit and have seen that decision thrown in the trash don't expect people to come out in droves in support of capitalism from now on...
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious are in this country now Big-G.
I know the Country is divided but I also know hard Brexit is a disaster in the making and simply will not get through the HOC.
The Brexiteers behaviour is only increasing the probability of the HOC voting for a second referendum which leave would lose now by some margin
Remaining would be better than what May and Robbins have come up with.
Personally I think we have to call off Brexit... But the establishment in general and the Tories in particular will be very badly punished in due course.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
How do you go from voting Remain in 2016 to being happy to see 6 years of hard left government if it's the price of Brexit?
I am reasonably centrist economically, I am not a libertarian. I would never vote for a socialist party but I do not think it would be Armageddon either although it would take years to deal with its excesses.
I also respect the Brexit vote and although I voted Remain have never shared your enthusiasm for the UK being part of the Eurozone and a Federal EU
I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
The poll was done today and the detail polling is shocking for Boris
It is not shocking for Boris, he has the second best 'more likely to vote Tory under' rating after Mogg
I don't know who is answering such detailed questions about the deal. Even for me the answers would most be "DK". It's way too early to start getting a read on the deal, we should wait a week or so at least IMO.
Boris will be interested to know most voters think he should have resigned and most Leavers think the Chequers deal is a bad deal although Remainers approve of it by a clear majority.
Oberall the voters are split in it and still split on Brexit it seems
A plurality of both Leavers and Remainers say it's the wrong deal for Britain.
No, a plurality of Leavers think it wrong a plurality of Remainers support it, you are looking at polling on May's overall EU approach
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
As "capitalism" has caused people to be denied their democratic voice after they voted for Brexit and have seen that decision thrown in the trash don't expect people to come out in droves in support of capitalism from now on...
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious are in this country now Big-G.
I know the Country is divided but I also know hard Brexit is a disaster in the making and simply will not get through the HOC.
The Brexiteers behaviour is only increasing the probability of the HOC voting for a second referendum which leave would lose now by some margin
Remaining would be better than what May and Robbins have come up with.
Personally I think we have to call off Brexit... But the establishment in general and the Tories in particular will be very badly punished in due course.
How would you call it off and are you prepared to stay in the EU
I don't think that means much especially as it was almost certainly mainly taken before yesterday's proposal from May, if anything her plan mau have reduced that LD and Labour rise in this poll. The polls in a week or two though will be significant, especially to see what Tory Leavers do and if some have moved to UKIP or even Labour
The poll was done today and the detail polling is shocking for Boris
It is not shocking for Boris, he has the second best 'more likely to vote Tory under' rating after Mogg
v May it is
It is overall not a bad poll for May, she can live with a 2% deficit midterm, a 10% deficit eould have been more difficult agreed. However of the alternative Mogg and Boris clearly lead the lack with Javid and Mourdaunt doing OK too.
It is a bad poll though for Gove, Hunt and Williamson who have the worst net negatives of the lot
Per that graphic Labour were consistently ahead for something like 6-7 months, during a period where presumably people also thought a harder Brexit was coming. I think it quite likely we move back to Lab leads being the norm again now, but it is clearly precipitate to declare the party dead just because Lab have taken a lead in this one poll. Will you recant that view if the next poll shows the Tories regaining the lead? I suspect not.
OT I'm trying to price up the World Cup but cannot see any value in the available prices which are: 2/1 France 5/2 England 11/4 Belgium 4/1 Croatia
What I expect to happen is that either France or Belgium (and probably France) will beat England in the final, which makes pricing it up trickier.France looks to have more potential match-winners in more positions in its side than do the other countries. England has the easiest semi-final. Maybe things will look clearer tomorrow.
Belgium were incredibly impressive against Brazil. France have the best squad, but I don't think first XI vs first XI there is much between France and Belgium...if lakuku, hazard and side show bob play like they did against Brazil, they will take some stopping.
France / mbappe have only really shone Vs Argentina, all the other games they have done just enough.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
Only on goods, less than 15% of the economy. The 85% (and growing) of the economy consisting of services is what matters.
Isn't it fairly obvious that a soft Brexit will destroy the Tory party? We have choice between hard Brexit which would lead to all kinds of challenges (which we aren't prepared for) and soft brexit/remain which destroys the Tories and transports us back to 1789.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
Only on goods, less than 15% of the economy. The 85% (and growing) of the economy consisting of services is what matters.
I believe you are both doing what is known as "polishing a turd".
What do you want them to do and how would you achieve it
These people are idiots and can't realise when they are winning. Hard Brexit for 85% of the economy, tariff flexibility for the other 15% and an exit from Freedom of Movement. They would have given their left arms for that in Cameron's renegotiation. Now they prefer to go back to full EU membership over it?
Boris will be interested to know most voters think he should have resigned and most Leavers think the Chequers deal is a bad deal although Remainers approve of it by a clear majority.
Oberall the voters are split in it and still split on Brexit it seems
A plurality of both Leavers and Remainers say it's the wrong deal for Britain.
No, a plurality of Leavers think it wrong a plurality of Remainers support it, you are looking at polling on May's overall EU approach
Boris will be interested to know most voters think he should have resigned and most Leavers think the Chequers deal is a bad deal although Remainers approve of it by a clear majority.
Oberall the voters are split in it and still split on Brexit it seems
A plurality of both Leavers and Remainers say it's the wrong deal for Britain.
No, a plurality of Leavers think it wrong a plurality of Remainers support it, you are looking at polling on May's overall EU approach
Isn't it fairly obvious that a soft Brexit will destroy the Tory party? We have choice between hard Brexit which would lead to all kinds of challenges (which we aren't prepared for) and soft brexit/remain which destroys the Tories and transports us back to 1789.
It would not destroy the Tories, just maybe lead to a narrow Corbyn win then Mogg taking over as Tory leader in opposition on a full hard Brexit platform
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
Only on goods, less than 15% of the economy. The 85% (and growing) of the economy consisting of services is what matters.
I believe you are both doing what is known as "polishing a turd".
Says the man that unceasingly defends the EU. How is their unemployment doing these days?
85% of the economy is hard Brexiting. 15% is soft-medium Brexiting. Plus immigration controlled.
And this is close to a take-it-or-leave it deal for the EU. If they play hardball, the government collapses and it's no deal territory.
I now have a potentially annoying conundrum. Next Sunday, 15th, is Mrs Sandpit’s birthday. I never thought that England might be actually playing in the final, and booked a nice restaurant. Thankfully she doesn’t know yet.
So, do I cancel and cook her a steak at home (with the footy on in the background), let it run and hope that either we don’t qualify or they put up a TV to watch the game, or book an hotel for the following weekend (which I have done already, the QEII) and run off to the pub to watch the match?
Record it and lock your phone in a safe? Then you can watch it after the meal/the next day.
Boris will be interested to know most voters think he should have resigned and most Leavers think the Chequers deal is a bad deal although Remainers approve of it by a clear majority.
Oberall the voters are split in it and still split on Brexit it seems
A plurality of both Leavers and Remainers say it's the wrong deal for Britain.
No, a plurality of Leavers think it wrong a plurality of Remainers support it, you are looking at polling on May's overall EU approach
Can you read? That link asks the question of whether people approve of May's handling of the summit.
It says Leavers disapprove of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 12% margin as I said and Remainers approve of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 14% margin as I said
Isn't it fairly obvious that a soft Brexit will destroy the Tory party? We have choice between hard Brexit which would lead to all kinds of challenges (which we aren't prepared for) and soft brexit/remain which destroys the Tories and transports us back to 1789.
It would not destroy the Tories, just maybe lead to a narrow Corbyn win then Mogg taking over as Tory leader in opposition on a full hard Brexit platform
I think you'll find that is as good as destroying the Tories...
I now have a potentially annoying conundrum. Next Sunday, 15th, is Mrs Sandpit’s birthday. I never thought that England might be actually playing in the final, and booked a nice restaurant. Thankfully she doesn’t know yet.
So, do I cancel and cook her a steak at home (with the footy on in the background), let it run and hope that either we don’t qualify or they put up a TV to watch the game, or book an hotel for the following weekend (which I have done already, the QEII) and run off to the pub to watch the match?
Record it and lock your phone in a safe? Then you can watch it after the meal/the next day.
And ask everyone in the restaurant not to shout if any team scores a goal and make sure to tell people not to celebrate in the streets until you reach home.......
It says Leavers disapprove of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 12% margin as I said and Remainers approve of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 14% margin as I said
You cannot be serious. Look again at the two results:
Isn't it fairly obvious that a soft Brexit will destroy the Tory party? We have choice between hard Brexit which would lead to all kinds of challenges (which we aren't prepared for) and soft brexit/remain which destroys the Tories and transports us back to 1789.
It would not destroy the Tories, just maybe lead to a narrow Corbyn win then Mogg taking over as Tory leader in opposition on a full hard Brexit platform
I think you'll find that is as good as destroying the Tories...
Nope, not on today's poll. Mogg has the highest net approval rating with the public of any Tory contender to succeed May. Mogg could well be the Tory Corbyn
I now have a potentially annoying conundrum. Next Sunday, 15th, is Mrs Sandpit’s birthday. I never thought that England might be actually playing in the final, and booked a nice restaurant. Thankfully she doesn’t know yet.
So, do I cancel and cook her a steak at home (with the footy on in the background), let it run and hope that either we don’t qualify or they put up a TV to watch the game, or book an hotel for the following weekend (which I have done already, the QEII) and run off to the pub to watch the match?
Record it and lock your phone in a safe? Then you can watch it after the meal/the next day.
And ask everyone in the restaurant not to shout if any team scores a goal and make sure to tell people not to celebrate in the streets until you reach home.......
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
I suspect I’m more plugged in Norn politics than you are
It says Leavers disapprove of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 12% margin as I said and Remainers approve of the Chequers deal and May's handling of it by a 14% margin as I said
You cannot be serious. Look again at the two results:
For a final time as the figures confirm Leavers disapprove of May's handling of the Chequers summit but Remainers approve of it. (Though obviously most Remainers would rather we never left the EU in the first place so it is still not the right deal for them)
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
The Conservatives have a clear interest in the next national vote being an EU referendum rather than a General Election, otherwise they will get slaughtered.
It must be the deal versus Remain, and they must stop trying to polish a turd.
Beginning to sound a bit desperate William
Just telling it as I see it. Do you find this polling comforting for your project?
I’m not fussed about polling. There’s not going to be a second referendum. And once we’re out we can diverge over time
Diverging over time = a border in the Irish sea. You're kidding yourself.
I suspect I’m more plugged in Norn politics than you are
I suspect you're more plugged into pharmaceuticals than I am, but as we know from past experience that says nothing about your handle on what's going on around you.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Forget Venezuela, Mexico now has one of Corbyn's pals in charge as well
The Mexico vote was about corruption and crime. Socialism didn't really feature. Obrador was backed by a number considered on the authoritarian Right.
Some really interesting polling there (impressed that Survation turned it around that quickly) - I'd have expected a more encouraging result for May. It looks as though Remainders are unreconciled and Leavers are fed up. Lots of don't knows for many of the questions, though.
The Boris quote is obviously planted by one of his numerous enemies and presumably the full quote is less brutal - "It might be a turd but it's the best we can get" or the like. But it's in both May's interest and Boris's interest that she sacks him - she can look tough, he can concentrate on rallying Leavers behind him.
However, the list will be a long way from total transparency. Around one-third of the names disclosed last year will no longer be present - not because they have had their pay cut, but because their programmes are made by BBC Studios, which was spun off as a commercial entity at the beginning of the last financial year.
That has created a loophole which means presenters' pay is routed through what is now classed an independent production company, meaning it no longer comes to them directly from the licence fee so does not have to be declared.
Some really interesting polling there (impressed that Survation turned it around that quickly) - I'd have expected a more encouraging result for May. It looks as though Remainders are unreconciled and Leavers are fed up. Lots of don't knows for many of the questions, though.
The Boris quote is obviously planted by one of his numerous enemies and presumably the full quote is less brutal - "It might be a turd but it's the best we can get" or the like. But it's in both May's interest and Boris's interest that she sacks him - she can look tough, he can concentrate on rallying Leavers behind him.
Maybe although I find the strange obsession with Boris especially, although certainly not exclusively, from Remainers rather odd and a distraction. Brexit really has been overly personalised with bogie men and women on either side Blair Chuka Clegg Soubry etc facing up Boris JRM Fox Leadsom etc.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Forget Venezuela, Mexico now has one of Corbyn's pals in charge as well
The Mexico vote was about corruption and crime. Socialism didn't really feature. Obrador was backed by a number considered on the authoritarian Right.
He still offered the most left-wing winning platform in recent Mexican history, defeating both the centre right and ruling centrist establishment candidates in the process.
Of course a number of former UKIP voters are now voting for Corbyn too
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
How do you go from voting Remain in 2016 to being happy to see 6 years of hard left government if it's the price of Brexit?
I doubt Momentum will relinquish power easily once they've got it. The hard left has waited decades for real change not a single term or so of office. Britain after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism will be a very different place and so will it's institutions.
Problem is to prevent it it seems we have to vote for the worst conservative government in history.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
How do you go from voting Remain in 2016 to being happy to see 6 years of hard left government if it's the price of Brexit?
I doubt Momentum will relinquish power easily once they've got it. The hard left has waited decades for real change not a single term or so of office. Britain after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism will be a very different place and so will it's institutions.
Problem is to prevent it it seems we have to vote for the worst conservative government in history.
In reality I doubt Corbyn would even get a majority, even on today's poll from Survation he only gets 300 seats on UNS, 26 short of a majority so would need minor parties to prop him up, notably the SNP and maybe the LDs and Greens.
The hard left can say what it wants if voters decide after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism they want the Tories back in that is what they will get and of course the armed forces still swear loyalty to the Crown, they will not enforce a Corbyn dictatorship
Per that graphic Labour were consistently ahead for something like 6-7 months, during a period where presumably people also thought a harder Brexit was coming. I think it quite likely we move back to Lab leads being the norm again now, but it is clearly precipitate to declare the party dead just because Lab have taken a lead in this one poll. Will you recant that view if the next poll shows the Tories regaining the lead? I suspect not.
My view is that that treacherous May has lost them my support - simple as that
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
The Tories are trying to outbid him with their own boiled egg brand of crazy.
So what is your answer to Brexit
It was the Tories who said fuck business.
Business loves low Labour unit costs - are you a socialist or not?
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Now that is hubris. He'll have had years more to seem more, for want of a better word, normal. That is to say, some might not like a Lab gov, but wouldn't fear it, but they did with Corbyn. But with years of experience of him to seem more regular, perhaps not as many will fear.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Forget Venezuela, Mexico now has one of Corbyn's pals in charge as well
The Mexico vote was about corruption and crime. Socialism didn't really feature. Obrador was backed by a number considered on the authoritarian Right.
He still offered the most left-wing winning platform in recent Mexican history, defeating both the centre right and ruling centrist establishment candidates in the process.
Of course a number of former UKIP voters are now voting for Corbyn too
Those UKIP voters were never on the Right though. Corbyn and Obrador share some commonalities. Personal asceticism and a general feeling that the status quo is not working, as well as an ability to articulate that idea. But, I would not see his victory as a triumph for the Left. More a rejection of business as usual.
Wait until Theresa's betrayal has really sunk in with Con voters. We'll be at Con 30% Lab 45% type levels in a couple of weeks IMO.
Even if Lab say 'This deal is one we can support' or 'This deal does not go far enough!' ?
Yes... Because although in a real election most Con voters will choose to stay at home in an opinion poll they can give voice to their displeasure by saying they'll vote Lab.
V Corbyn they will not stay at home
Ha - the tories lost my vote in the 90's got it back in 2010 and lost it again now
Anyone keeping up with events in Thailand? I know there were a few quite knowledgeable people commenting on it the other day. The whole thing seems daunting.
He has not changed from his desire to break capitalism and replace it with a Venezeula style government
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious are in this country now Big-G.
I know the Country is divided but I also know hard Brexit is a disaster in the making and simply will not get through the HOC.
The Brexiteers behaviour is only increasing the probability of the HOC voting for a second referendum which leave would lose now by some margin
Remaining would be better than what May and Robbins have come up with.
Personally I think we have to call off Brexit... But the establishment in general and the Tories in particular will be very badly punished in due course.
How would you call it off and are you prepared to stay in the EU
Once the “turd way” brexit is done, are you seriously going to go around saying “we are not in the EU” like the Norwegians do? They do, whilst whole rest of world know Norway as a vassal state of the EU. It’s embaressing to hear them claim freedom from EU.
the Turd Way is not a pragmatic compromise ofwhat the 52 and the 48 voted for, the Turd Way compromise has dna of political dogma and expediency all of its own. It is it’s own unique calamity. Every Briton would know and feel being in an EU vassal state, in their hearts, mocking their pride. Or at least should do if not politically illiterate.
All this embarrassing stuff about Mrs May betraying Tory members/voters.
This is the hyperbole brought to you by the people who predicted Anna Soubry would be ousted by her association.
How'd that turn out?
Power, unlimited power is what Tories like, especially when Corbyn is the alternative.
So, given the following choices, which way would you jump:
1) An A50 deal which economically damages the country but keeps the Conservative Party united.
2) An A50 deal which is economically positive for the country but which destroys the Conservative Party.
Country before party.
There's a possibility that come the next GE, as in 1945, the electorate will thank the Conservatives for guiding the country through Brexit out of the EU by dumping them for Corbyn's promises.
Churchill of course eventually beat Attlee after 6 years of Labour and there was then 13 years of Tory government. I could live with that even if it means PM Corbyn and 6 years of socialism
How do you go from voting Remain in 2016 to being happy to see 6 years of hard left government if it's the price of Brexit?
I doubt Momentum will relinquish power easily once they've got it. The hard left has waited decades for real change not a single term or so of office. Britain after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism will be a very different place and so will it's institutions.
Problem is to prevent it it seems we have to vote for the worst conservative government in history.
In reality I doubt Corbyn would even get a majority, even on today's poll from Survation he only gets 300 seats on UNS, 26 short of a majority so would need minor parties to prop him up, notably the SNP and maybe the LDs and Greens.
The hard left can say what it wants if voters decide after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism they want the Tories back in that is what they will get and of course the armed forces still swear loyalty to the Crown, they will not enforce a Corbyn dictatorship
Nice smear but I'm not sure we need worry about military dictatorships just yet.
The Survation numbers are " interesting " and they've done an admirable job of turning complex Brexit policy into clear polling questions. But ... There was only 24hrs from the Chequers agreement being published and those numbers coming out. So the poll can only have been in the field for 18 to 20hrs. On a Saturday in July in a heatwave when Engkand were playing. How many real voters have the faintest idea what Chequers is ? The figures are interesting to see what voters think of various choices/trade offs but in all honesty the numbers need taking with a bucket load of salt given the turnaround time.
After Chequers I've gone all Green on Betfair next PM. I think the Tories will now skip a generation even if May goes quite soon. I'll kick myself if Hunt makes it but I do now think they'll want as decicive a break with the current generation as possible.
Mordaunt was an original Leaver and is doing lots of Cameronian PR stuff at DfID and PRIDE events. It could her as the change/continuity candidate vs a change/change candidate who didn't dip their hands in the blood at Chequers.
Comments
Gove does worst with 37% less likely to vote Tory under him, Hunt and Boris also have high negatives too with 30% less likely to vote Tory under them, though Boris has higher positives than both
2/1 France
5/2 England
11/4 Belgium
4/1 Croatia
What I expect to happen is that either France or Belgium (and probably France) will beat England in the final, which makes pricing it up trickier.France looks to have more potential match-winners in more positions in its side than do the other countries. England has the easiest semi-final. Maybe things will look clearer tomorrow.
GOP 42%
Dems 32%
Total 33%
How does that work?
Either the independents really hate us, or there aren’t many Republicans left!
Capitalism was already on shaky ground after the financial crash and subsequent bail outs but now people can see their votes are even being denied in the name of capitalism things will get worse. Much worse.
I really don't think you appreciate how serious things are in this country now Big-G.
The Brexiteers behaviour is only increasing the probability of the HOC voting for a second referendum which leave would lose now by some margin
https://order-order.com/2018/07/07/labour-now-ahead-following-mays-brexit-sellout/
Bye bye tories unless you grow a pair
@EuropeElects
2h2 hours ago
Germany, Emnid poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 17% (-2)
AfD-EFDD: 17% (+3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12%
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
FDP-ALDE: 9%
Field work: 28/06/18 – 4/07/18
Sample size: not revealed yet"
Personally I think we have to call off Brexit... But the establishment in general and the Tories in particular will be very badly punished in due course.
I also respect the Brexit vote and although I voted Remain have never shared your enthusiasm for the UK being part of the Eurozone and a Federal EU
It is a bad poll though for Gove, Hunt and Williamson who have the worst net negatives of the lot
France / mbappe have only really shone Vs Argentina, all the other games they have done just enough.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1015716686207639554/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/6515/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-surely-this-means-that-tmay-has-to-sack-fuck-business-boris/p1
85% of the economy is hard Brexiting. 15% is soft-medium Brexiting. Plus immigration controlled.
And this is close to a take-it-or-leave it deal for the EU. If they play hardball, the government collapses and it's no deal territory.
https://www.petrolprices.com/news/ministers-seriously-considering-raising-fuel-duty-after-8-years/
The Boris quote is obviously planted by one of his numerous enemies and presumably the full quote is less brutal - "It might be a turd but it's the best we can get" or the like. But it's in both May's interest and Boris's interest that she sacks him - she can look tough, he can concentrate on rallying Leavers behind him.
That has created a loophole which means presenters' pay is routed through what is now classed an independent production company, meaning it no longer comes to them directly from the licence fee so does not have to be declared.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/07/07/bbc-stars-say-broadcaster-humiliating-plans-publish-salaries/
I wonder how many are also going to be back to the old personal service company lark?
Of course a number of former UKIP voters are now voting for Corbyn too
Problem is to prevent it it seems we have to vote for the worst conservative government in history.
The hard left can say what it wants if voters decide after 5 or 6 years of Corbynism they want the Tories back in that is what they will get and of course the armed forces still swear loyalty to the Crown, they will not enforce a Corbyn dictatorship
Belgium 3.2
Draw 3.3
Croatia 3.5
England 2.44
Draw 3.2
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/competition/5614746
Do Brexit ultras not realise how much has been gained? We should not be squabbling amongst ourselves but pressurising the EU to accept deal
Corbyn and Obrador share some commonalities. Personal asceticism and a general feeling that the status quo is not working, as well as an ability to articulate that idea.
But, I would not see his victory as a triumph for the Left.
More a rejection of business as usual.
I hardly think I am alone
After Chequers I've gone all Green on Betfair next PM. I think the Tories will now skip a generation even if May goes quite soon. I'll kick myself if Hunt makes it but I do now think they'll want as decicive a break with the current generation as possible.
Mordaunt was an original Leaver and is doing lots of Cameronian PR stuff at DfID and PRIDE events. It could her as the change/continuity candidate vs a change/change candidate who didn't dip their hands in the blood at Chequers.
Astonishing someone only looks at a headline or tweet before writing this tosh.