Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three times as many people are less confident now about Brexit

13»

Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    I am I wrong to expect more than a list of 12 soundbites?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018
    Guess I'll be voting for Corbyn from now now on then...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Brazil playing the sort of football now they should have played from the start.

    Could only play it because Belgium was knackered. So many opertunities just not quite connecting in the final 15 for Brazil.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    tlg86 said:

    DavidL said:

    The ball wasn’t out. It was a penalty.

    It's another area where VAR changes the game. Without it the ref thinks "well I'm not sure if it was in play, no penalty." Okay, people get upset but he only gets one look at it. But with VAR, it's pretty inexcusable that they didn't check that more closely. It was the end on shot which showed Kompany making contact, with his studs up by the way, which should have led to further inspection.
    Yep. At normal speed I was convinced that the ball was out. Slow it down and it wasn’t. An earlier goal for Brazil and who knows what would have happened? Neymar does himself no favours with his antics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    Jonathan said:

    I am I wrong to expect more than a list of 12 soundbites?

    Hey it is progress from the soundbite 'Brexit means Brexit'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,249
    The numbers in the boxes show how close it was expected to be, and it has Belgium vs Brazil (1.38 vs 1.15) as very close. That's 0.2 of a goal between them. You'd expect to get the result wrong around 40% of the time on those numbers.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    It appears that Theresa May been using the thesaurus. Brexit means what ever she wants it to mean.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    Well if they are unhappy then I'm happy.

    https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1015324836476923904

    Theresa deserves to be allowed to fight the next general election.

    Having read some of the detail I think they'll be getting it from all sides. It's just not a credible plan, and it certainly doesn't live up to the 'soft Brexit' billing. It's pure cakeism.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,757
    Looks like Dr Foxy and Fox jr will be watching France vs Belgium on Tuesday, gonna be a good un.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    None of the chicken shit Brexiters in the cabinet want to own Brexit.

    They want May to take the heat for a soft Brexit and then step in after it's all been agreed and go, sorry chaps this is the hand we've been dealt, going to have to be soft brexit, but I promise going forward I'll be super tough on those jolly Europeans from now on what.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    Guess I'll be voting for Corbyn from now now on then...
    Yep the tories can kiss my vote goodbye too
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    So threatening people with a walk down the driveway was enough? Blimey.

    May has surprised on the upside again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    restore the supremacy of UK courts, ending the jurisdiction of the CJEU in the UK, with no more preliminary references from UK courts, but committing that UK courts would pay due regard to the CJEU’s jurisprudence where the UK had chosen to apply a common rulebook to ensure consistent interpretation

    'Would pay due regard' seems like it must be an important phrase, legally speaking, in this context.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    Liam Fox is very easy to be bought off.

    https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1015324589818294274
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Guess I'll be voting for Corbyn from now now on then...
    Yep the tories can kiss my vote goodbye too
    Now now, perhaps the Brexiteers are playing a long game - when the EU rejects this, they'll say 'we tried the May way, time to try MY way' and move for something much harder, ousting May.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,249

    Immigration vs the economy:

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/analysis/the-two-poles-of-the-referendum-debate-immigration-and-the-economy/

    no less than 92% of Leave supporters believe that immigration from the EU should be limited ‘by introducing an Australian points based system’, a position that is, of course, in direct conflict with the EU’s freedom of movement provisions. Remain voters, in contrast, were not only divided on the issue, but a majority (64%) actually supported the idea too. Although many Remain supporters hold what is seemingly a relatively liberal provision on immigration, this does not necessarily mean that their support for EU membership is rooted in enthusiasm for the Union’s freedom of movement provisions. If anything, the opposite may well sometimes be the case.

    It is worth remembering that fewer than 40% of Australian immigrants come on the points system. There are also quotas by specific job type (37 plumbers, third class - yes seriously), free movement with New Zealand, inter corporate transfers, students who end up getting jobs, and people who come on short term contracts and meet a girl (or guy). Plus a hundred other things covered by the mass of immigration legislation.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    the UK and the EU will enter into a new relationship – one that must work for both sides, underpinning shared prosperity and security

    How's that going to work? I thought the EU had rejected all our proposals for sharing any security matters?
    The new deal will be passed in order to ensure a safe and secure society!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    kle4 said:

    restore the supremacy of UK courts, ending the jurisdiction of the CJEU in the UK, with no more preliminary references from UK courts, but committing that UK courts would pay due regard to the CJEU’s jurisprudence where the UK had chosen to apply a common rulebook to ensure consistent interpretation

    'Would pay due regard' seems like it must be an important phrase, legally speaking, in this context.

    Already part of the withdrawal bill, in respect of the transition period; see clause 6: "a court or tribunal may have regard to anything done on or after exit day by the European Court, another EU entity or the EU so far as it is relevant to any matter before the court or tribunal".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,163
    Foxy said:

    Looks like Dr Foxy and Fox jr will be watching France vs Belgium on Tuesday, gonna be a good un.

    Bet you didn't expect that at the start of the tournament.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    shush tse, no criticising an outcome you prefer please...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    But we also concluded that it was responsible to continue preparations for a range of potential outcomes, including the possibility of ‘no deal’. Given the short period remaining before the necessary conclusion of negotiations this autumn, we agreed preparations should be stepped up.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    May will step down before the next election. The EU will probably reject this agreement but we'll fudge our way towards something similar at the end of the day. It completely reflects the closeness of the referendum result . The ERG headbangers will continue to mutter as they have done for years - there is not and never has been any kind of majority for what they want.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited July 2018
    Include a mobility framework so that UK and EU citizens can continue to travel to each other’s territories, and apply for study and work – similar to what the UK may offer other close trading partners in the future

    Something tells me the part after the hyphen was added after the first draft. This one too.

    end vast annual payments to the EU budget, with appropriate contributions for joint action in specific areas, such as science and innovation, releasing funds for domestic priorities – in particular our long-term plan for the NHS

    And thank goodness 'vast' payments will end. Perhaps they will merely be 'huge'?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited July 2018
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    the UK and the EU will enter into a new relationship – one that must work for both sides, underpinning shared prosperity and security

    How's that going to work? I thought the EU had rejected all our proposals for sharing any security matters?
    The new deal will be passed in order to ensure a safe and secure society!
    Not a 'strong and stable' one?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited July 2018
    Barnesian said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    Interesting admission that cabinet collective responsibility has essentially been suspended for 2 years.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited July 2018
    DavidL said:

    So threatening people with a walk down the driveway was enough? Blimey.

    May has surprised on the upside again.

    Mays current job description is to prepare and serve a shit sandwich to the British public. No one else wants that job.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    the UK and the EU will enter into a new relationship – one that must work for both sides, underpinning shared prosperity and security

    How's that going to work? I thought the EU had rejected all our proposals for sharing any security matters?
    The new deal will be passed in order to ensure a safe and secure society!
    Not a 'strong and stable' one?
    A strong and stable safe and secure society? Way too many s's :p
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    restore the supremacy of UK courts, ending the jurisdiction of the CJEU in the UK, with no more preliminary references from UK courts, but committing that UK courts would pay due regard to the CJEU’s jurisprudence where the UK had chosen to apply a common rulebook to ensure consistent interpretation

    'Would pay due regard' seems like it must be an important phrase, legally speaking, in this context.

    Already part of the withdrawal bill, in respect of the transition period; see clause 6: "a court or tribunal may have regard to anything done on or after exit day by the European Court, another EU entity or the EU so far as it is relevant to any matter before the court or tribunal".
    I'm just curious if there is a specific legal meaning to what the extent of having 'due regard' is, in the same way reasonableness is a specific legal test.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    I'll be pleased if VAR further punishes divers by denying them a foul the next time they're actually infringed against after they've blatantly dived.

    We've got to wipe Neymar style theatrics out of the game now we have the chance to.

    I think they should review all of the footage from this World Cup and ban every one of those guilty of faking, dirty fouling, and shouting in the ref's face from international football for an appropriate number of competitive games.

    The football has been great to watch in this World Cup, but the cheating has been a fucking disgrace.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Is it because it would provide a temporary economic boost?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754

    But we also concluded that it was responsible to continue preparations for a range of potential outcomes, including the possibility of ‘no deal’. Given the short period remaining before the necessary conclusion of negotiations this autumn, we agreed preparations should be stepped up.
    It also says that they are prepared to agree to the Northern Ireland backstop!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    Interesting admission that cabinet collective responsibility has essentially been suspended for 2 years.
    I suppose it has. May attempting to re-forge an iron fist?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited July 2018

    But we also concluded that it was responsible to continue preparations for a range of potential outcomes, including the possibility of ‘no deal’. Given the short period remaining before the necessary conclusion of negotiations this autumn, we agreed preparations should be stepped up.
    It also says that they are prepared to agree to the Northern Ireland backstop!
    But we haven't agreed what that backstop is yet have we? I've gotten confused.
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    Interesting admission that cabinet collective responsibility has essentially been suspended for 2 years.
    I suppose it has. May attempting to re-forge an iron fist?
    It is actually the right move here - we're agreed now, so from now on we will rise or fall together - but whether she can rein them in is another question. I don't think she can stop Boris testing where the line is.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    kle4 said:

    But we also concluded that it was responsible to continue preparations for a range of potential outcomes, including the possibility of ‘no deal’. Given the short period remaining before the necessary conclusion of negotiations this autumn, we agreed preparations should be stepped up.
    It also says that they are prepared to agree to the Northern Ireland backstop!
    But we haven't agreed what that backstop is yet have we?
    It can only mean signing the EU's version of it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018
    felix said:

    May will step down before the next election. The EU will probably reject this agreement but we'll fudge our way towards something similar at the end of the day. It completely reflects the closeness of the referendum result . The ERG headbangers will continue to mutter as they have done for years - there is not and never has been any kind of majority for what they want.

    The overall result may have been close but on a constituency level it was actually a landslide for Leave.. In the Midlands. In much of Northern England. And particularly in Tory held seats...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    restore the supremacy of UK courts, ending the jurisdiction of the CJEU in the UK, with no more preliminary references from UK courts, but committing that UK courts would pay due regard to the CJEU’s jurisprudence where the UK had chosen to apply a common rulebook to ensure consistent interpretation

    'Would pay due regard' seems like it must be an important phrase, legally speaking, in this context.

    Already part of the withdrawal bill, in respect of the transition period; see clause 6: "a court or tribunal may have regard to anything done on or after exit day by the European Court, another EU entity or the EU so far as it is relevant to any matter before the court or tribunal".
    I'm just curious if there is a specific legal meaning to what the extent of having 'due regard' is, in the same way reasonableness is a specific legal test.
    It's an administrative law term, used to articulate process and procedure for (in particular) courts (for example, when making findings of fact) but also other bodies within the scope of, say human rights or judicial law.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    So the red lines are turning rather pink. No CJEU jurisdiction becomes giving "due regard" to its decisions, ending to free movement becomes a "mobility framework", and ending contributions to the EU becomes "appropriate payments". EEA with fig leaves is going to be the final outcome.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    the UK and the EU will enter into a new relationship – one that must work for both sides, underpinning shared prosperity and security

    How's that going to work? I thought the EU had rejected all our proposals for sharing any security matters?
    The new deal will be passed in order to ensure a safe and secure society!
    Strong and stable society surely?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,751
    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    Interesting admission that cabinet collective responsibility has essentially been suspended for 2 years.
    More likely a late excuse for not having sacked Boris.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Which is weaker?

    Brazil's defence, or the cabinet Brexiteers?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,635
    Foxy said:

    Looks like Dr Foxy and Fox jr will be watching France vs Belgium on Tuesday, gonna be a good un.

    Have a good trip!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Which is weaker?

    Brazil's defence, or the cabinet Brexiteers?

    Cabinet Brexiters by some distance.

    Cowards to a man.

    Or Charlatans. Could be option number 2.

    They never actually wanted to Brexit, they just wanted to be PM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    So my friend is getting married tomorrow at the same time as England play Sweden.

    Can we all pray for a quiet news weekend on the political front.

    Also pray for me, I'll be wearing a morning suit replete with waistcoat for most of tomorrow and the temp is forecast to be around 29 degrees.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Barnesian said:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DhcsOPdX4AAoDip.jpg:large

    Letter from May to Tory MPs tonight. One wrong word and you're out.

    Interesting admission that cabinet collective responsibility has essentially been suspended for 2 years.
    I suppose it has. May attempting to re-forge an iron fist?
    It has been suggested recently -- based mainly on PMQs -- that there is a new steel in the Number 10 team.

    Whether it really matters is less clear. We might have to see whether this new Brexit strategy survives its reception first in the Sunday papers and later in Brussels.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,754
    This effectively means the UK is agreeing to the possibility of a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP have been completely shafted.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018

    This effectively means the UK is agreeing to the possibility of a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP have been completely shafted.

    The DUP can still pull the plug at any point - Which is of course exactly what we need to see them doing on Monday.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    So my friend is getting married tomorrow at the same time as England play Sweden.

    Can we all pray for a quiet news weekend on the political front.

    Also pray for me, I'll be wearing a morning suit replete with waistcoat for most of tomorrow and the temp is forecast to be around 29 degrees.

    If it's good enough for Gareth Southgate ... what you might want to think about, although it is a bit late now, is whether you can secrete some cooling packs about the waistcoat or jacket: a Heath-Robinson version of these:
    http://www.stacoolvest.com/adult-coolings-vests/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    Interesting that Guido is suddenly more a fan of talking about soft and hard brexits. As soft as this idea may or may not be, it's surely not the 'softest' possible option?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited July 2018
    If we weren't leaving, but someone else was, Barnier would be negotiating on our behalf.

    Say Ireland had decided to leave rather than us, would you want Barnier negotiating with the Irish on our behalf about the border?

    That's one thing I won't miss about our membership of the EU. I won't miss having a "President" Juncker presiding over us either.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    This effectively means the UK is agreeing to the possibility of a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP have been completely shafted.

    Could you explain your reasoning? To me, it looks like that option has been avoided (even though I would have put half a border up myself)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    So we agree that we have the same relationship so far as goods is concerned but we accept less access for services. How is that in our interests exactly?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    Interesting that Guido is suddenly more a fan of talking about soft and hard brexits. As soft as this idea may or may not be, it's surely not the 'softest' possible option?

    Sometimes you get the odd hint Guido is not quite as independent as he makes out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    So my friend is getting married tomorrow at the same time as England play Sweden.

    Can we all pray for a quiet news weekend on the political front.

    Also pray for me, I'll be wearing a morning suit replete with waistcoat for most of tomorrow and the temp is forecast to be around 29 degrees.

    If it's good enough for Gareth Southgate ... what you might want to think about, although it is a bit late now, is whether you can secrete some cooling packs about the waistcoat or jacket: a Heath-Robinson version of these:
    http://www.stacoolvest.com/adult-coolings-vests/
    $200?! I'll stay hot and sweaty, thanks. (If Gauke had quit a few months back I could have afforded it though).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    New thread...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    kle4 said:

    Interesting that Guido is suddenly more a fan of talking about soft and hard brexits. As soft as this idea may or may not be, it's surely not the 'softest' possible option?

    Sometimes you get the odd hint Guido is not quite as independent as he makes out.
    Well he has partisan positions, obviously, and was always clearly in favour of harder forms of Brexit, it's the language change I find interesting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    DavidL said:

    So we agree that we have the same relationship so far as goods is concerned but we accept less access for services. How is that in our interests exactly?

    If we look at this purely at the economics, Brexit isn't in our interests, so it is the cost of democracy.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    rpjs said:

    So the red lines are turning rather pink. No CJEU jurisdiction becomes giving "due regard" to its decisions, ending to free movement becomes a "mobility framework", and ending contributions to the EU becomes "appropriate payments". EEA with fig leaves is going to be the final outcome.

    I've been predicting fudge rather than drama for some time, and the EU is always up for fudge. The agreement is achievable, but at the cost of another couple of years debating what it means.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,898
    That is another major problem as it commits us to regulatory alignment going forward, not just now.

    This may be the price of a FTA. It’s a high one and I cannot see this lasting long.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    DavidL said:

    So we agree that we have the same relationship so far as goods is concerned but we accept less access for services. How is that in our interests exactly?

    We would strike different arrangements for services, where it is in our interests to have regulatory flexibility, recognising the UK and the EU will not have current levels of access to each other’s markets

    Lower level of access but more flexibility? Not immediately persuasive, but the details are easy to bamboozle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    rpjs said:

    So the red lines are turning rather pink. No CJEU jurisdiction becomes giving "due regard" to its decisions, ending to free movement becomes a "mobility framework", and ending contributions to the EU becomes "appropriate payments". EEA with fig leaves is going to be the final outcome.

    I've been predicting fudge rather than drama for some time, and the EU is always up for fudge. .
    Except on the NI border apparently.

This discussion has been closed.