Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approac

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approaches

That didn’t take long.  As soon as the Germans were eliminated, it suddenly occurred to the entire British media that “VAR” could, if you squinted at it hard enough, be read as if it were a German pronunciation of the word “war”.  Amazing, I know.  So “Don’t mention the VAR” made its way through the lower reaches of the press and swam upstream as far as the Times and the Telegraph.  Could you have imagined such wit? 

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Thanks for the header, Alastair!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2018
    Very good sir, but then I agree with you.
    Godwin's law seems to get confused with patiotism in this Brexit (Brakesit or Breaksit or Breaksup ?) masochism.
    "Godwin" is, I reckon, particularly European. Sometimes the Americans like to blend in the crusades as well.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Excellent header Alastair!. Very witty. Very Francis Wheen.

    The Irish might be the problem now but this is early days. I was at the Portsoy boat festival yesterday in the North East of Scotland and to say the SNP looked chipper would be an understatement. The contagion has only just begun. This could be just the start of the second 100 years VAR
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,075
    "Don't mention the VAR", is rivaled by this little piece of schadenfreude:

    https://twitter.com/falklands_utd/status/1013093659527565313?s=19

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577
    Foxy said:

    "Don't mention the VAR", is rivaled by this little piece of schadenfreude:

    https://twitter.com/falklands_utd/status/1013093659527565313?s=19

    That’s much funnier.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Foxy said:

    "Don't mention the VAR", is rivaled by this little piece of schadenfreude:

    https://twitter.com/falklands_utd/status/1013093659527565313?s=19

    Very good! Who said they could only produce sheep
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    My new bike computer came with a Galileo receiver in it. Cancellation of A50 confirmed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Dura_Ace said:

    My new bike computer came with a Galileo receiver in it. Cancellation of A50 confirmed.

    I'm not sure they were ever planning on blocking the civilian signal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,075
    Dura_Ace said:

    My new bike computer came with a Galileo receiver in it. Cancellation of A50 confirmed.

    The complete absence of progress since December would seem to suggest that. Or possibly that your bike computer is for the continental market.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Bit sleepy but agree with the last bit. Things will certainly worsen before they improve.

    On a more general note I happened to see the back end of a 30 minute programme about the presentation of WWII in films made in Japan on the BBC news channel. It was really rather interesting.

    Anyway, shortly I shall see if Ladbrokes has its markets up. The lateness in France and now is really rather odd.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    GE2017 was called ostensibly to win a mandate for Theresa May's vision of Brexit but she never explained what that is. In any case, she lost her majority.

    The manifesto is no great help.
    We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure (page 6)
    a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 30)
    ensure our departure is smooth and orderly (page 31)
    secure a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 36)
    fair, orderly negotiations (page 36)

    And after Brexit we should have achieved:
    a deep and special partnership (page 6)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 15)
    a deep and special partnership (page 31)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 35)
    a deep and special partnership (page 35 again)
    a deep and special partnership (page 36)
    our proposed deep and special partnership (page 38)

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,577

    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    GE2017 was called ostensibly to win a mandate for Theresa May's vision of Brexit but she never explained what that is. In any case, she lost her majority.

    The manifesto is no great help.
    We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure (page 6)
    a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 30)
    ensure our departure is smooth and orderly (page 31)
    secure a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 36)
    fair, orderly negotiations (page 36)

    And after Brexit we should have achieved:
    a deep and special partnership (page 6)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 15)
    a deep and special partnership (page 31)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 35)
    a deep and special partnership (page 35 again)
    a deep and special partnership (page 36)
    our proposed deep and special partnership (page 38)

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.

    ‘Smooth and orderly’... no comment necessary by now.
    As for ‘deep and special’, it’s 50/50 on whether we agree any relationship at all.

    Your perseverance in getting past page 2 does you credit.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: still just 11 markets up, which is a bit poor. I'll give it a bit longer (half-asleep anyway, so I was just checking).
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    GE2017 was called ostensibly to win a mandate for Theresa May's vision of Brexit but she never explained what that is. In any case, she lost her majority.

    The manifesto is no great help.
    We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure (page 6)
    a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 30)
    ensure our departure is smooth and orderly (page 31)
    secure a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 36)
    fair, orderly negotiations (page 36)

    And after Brexit we should have achieved:
    a deep and special partnership (page 6)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 15)
    a deep and special partnership (page 31)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 35)
    a deep and special partnership (page 35 again)
    a deep and special partnership (page 36)
    our proposed deep and special partnership (page 38)

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.

    "Smooth and orderly", "Deep and Special", "Strong and Stable",
    "Brexit means Brexit"
    Time to sack the sloganizer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    'The Government has done nothing to prepare the public for any form of major concessions. No doubt this is a function of the fissures that criss-cross the ship of state from stem to stern. When the choice confronting Britain finally becomes apparent (probably in October), the public mood is likely to become sulphurous. ‘

    And I fear, and expect, will be split. 'Why haven’t we just left’ will compete with ‘Dreadful idea; just forget it’ in private and in the pub, as well as in Parliament. and the bitterness, perticularly of the Leaver press, will know no bounds. The hostility, on both sides , will be heightened by some form of legal case involving financial shenanigans by Leave.

    The only positive thought is that Paul Dacre is retiring from the Mail in the autumn!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    It's like bizarro Versailles where the German army spent most of the war arguing whether to invade Narnia or El Dorado
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523
    RobD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    My new bike computer came with a Galileo receiver in it. Cancellation of A50 confirmed.

    I'm not sure they were ever planning on blocking the civilian signal.
    I'll bet it can also receive Glosnass signals.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,075

    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    trimmed for space

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.

    Perhaps the biggest flaw in such an approach is that a Royal Commission may well have come up with a plan that was just as incompatible with the views of the EU27. An ala carte Brexit has never been on offer.

    We really needed a choice between ready-made alternatives. Remain, EEA, Customs Union, WTO, conducted by AV. It is likely that such a referendum would have gone the way of EEA.

    The complete absence of progress over the last 6 months, and total lack of preparation for WTO Brexit leaves only a few options: The default car crash Brexit, off the peg (EEA or CU) or A50 extension. I dont think the government could survive any of those.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523

    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    GE2017 was called ostensibly to win a mandate for Theresa May's vision of Brexit but she never explained what that is. In any case, she lost her majority.

    The manifesto is no great help.
    We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure (page 6)
    a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 30)
    ensure our departure is smooth and orderly (page 31)
    secure a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 36)
    fair, orderly negotiations (page 36)

    And after Brexit we should have achieved:
    a deep and special partnership (page 6)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 15)
    a deep and special partnership (page 31)
    a new deep and special partnership (page 35)
    a deep and special partnership (page 35 again)
    a deep and special partnership (page 36)
    our proposed deep and special partnership (page 38)

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.

    " ... for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut,"

    Oi! I'm a voter and my attention span is much greater than that of a ...

    Hang on, what time's the F1 on?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    Decision time in Bavaria as CSU must say whether they are going to continue in government. This week they have been creating wiggle room for a climb down, but on the other hand Merkel's European solution on migration has been shown to be full of holes.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/asylstreit-dobrindt-zweifelt-an-merkels-vereinbarungen-15668431.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    "This isn’t a war, it’s a negotiation."

    Tell that to the EU.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    Didn't someone post don't mention the var on pb before the end of the match? In any case, the problem with Brexit is not that Gary Oldman won an Oscar for a pretty average portrayal of Churchill but that it has never been established what Brexit is supposed to look like.

    David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.

    trimmed for space

    Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?

    That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.

    Perhaps the biggest flaw in such an approach is that a Royal Commission may well have come up with a plan that was just as incompatible with the views of the EU27. An ala carte Brexit has never been on offer.

    We really needed a choice between ready-made alternatives. Remain, EEA, Customs Union, WTO, conducted by AV. It is likely that such a referendum would have gone the way of EEA.

    The complete absence of progress over the last 6 months, and total lack of preparation for WTO Brexit leaves only a few options: The default car crash Brexit, off the peg (EEA or CU) or A50 extension. I dont think the government could survive any of those.

    This Friday there will be a meeting at Chequers to ... oh FFS, a year after the election, two years after the referendum and a year and a half since the government triggered Article 50, there is still no Cabinet agreement on what a post-Brexit settlement should look like, let alone how to achieve it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    On the security issue, the security expert the BBC drafted in considered Barnier to be talking though his arse, although he put it more sedately. He was sure the security people in the 27 countries would soon put him right.

    Of course, he's using megaphone diplomacy. There is a ready audience of unreconstructed Remainers to appeal to. Continuing the WW2 theme, we're entombed in Colditz and the captors want you to believe that 'resistance is futile'. And 'don't forget you get three square meals a day here; there's nothing for you outside Tommy, only pain and suffering.'
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265



    " ... for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut,"

    Oi! I'm a voter and my attention span is much greater than that of a ...

    Hang on, what time's the F1 on?

    Lol. Many a true word, though. I should like voters to be intensely engaged and prepared to be sulphurous, but in reality most people don't care that much either way. Asked for an opinion, they gave one, but that didn't mean they were all LibDems or UKIP on the subject. They can see it's difficult, can't be bothered to follow the details, and will take a final view about the Government's competence when they see how it works out.

    The EU will offer a fudge which is essentially pretty close to "little change for now, potential for change in the future, subject to further discussions in a few years' time". If May settles for that and gets it past her party, most voters will think that's not too bad, now let's talk about the economy, the NHS, etc.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486


    "This isn’t a war, it’s a negotiation."

    Tell that to the EU.

    Diddums
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    tlg86 said:

    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!

    Peak Godwin-Meeks :>
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,751
    CD13 said:

    On the security issue, the security expert the BBC drafted in considered Barnier to be talking though his arse, although he put it more sedately. He was sure the security people in the 27 countries would soon put him right.

    Of course, he's using megaphone diplomacy. There is a ready audience of unreconstructed Remainers to appeal to. Continuing the WW2 theme, we're entombed in Colditz and the captors want you to believe that 'resistance is futile'. And 'don't forget you get three square meals a day here; there's nothing for you outside Tommy, only pain and suffering.'

    Not sure why, but I'm reminded of that Colditz episode where a POW pretended to be mad so he could be repatriated, only to end up genuinely insane.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    CD13 said:

    On the security issue, the security expert the BBC drafted in considered Barnier to be talking though his arse, although he put it more sedately. He was sure the security people in the 27 countries would soon put him right.

    Of course, he's using megaphone diplomacy. There is a ready audience of unreconstructed Remainers to appeal to. Continuing the WW2 theme, we're entombed in Colditz and the captors want you to believe that 'resistance is futile'. And 'don't forget you get three square meals a day here; there's nothing for you outside Tommy, only pain and suffering.'

    Not sure why, but I'm reminded of that Colditz episode where a POW pretended to be mad so he could be repatriated, only to end up genuinely insane.
    LOL!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Hey PBers. I've almost finished my script for my next video. It's on one of my favourite topics: UK housing.

    Basically, I'm saying that you definitely shouldn't own a property on the Primrose Hill, Camden borders. But other than that, you're OK.

    Or something like that :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
    Almost enough to persuade you to stick with your wife, huh?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
    BUT DID SHE?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited July 2018
    Mr Roger, Mr Divvie

    From Wiki. "Institutionalisation refers to the process of embedding some conception (for example a belief, norm, social role, particular value or mode of behavior) within an organization, social system, or society as a whole."

    The process is meant to make the inmates believe that this is the only way to behave or live. A sort of EU - isation. Outside, there be dragons, cliff edges abound, madness is everywhere.

    I suppose it's a mild form of mental illness and more to be pitied than condemned. So we forgive you old EU-lags anyway.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The frivolity of Brexit was there from the beginning. Unlike Scottish nationalists before the independence referendum or the Irish government before the abortion referendum, the Leave campaign offered no explanation to the voters of what victory would entail. If it were to present concrete proposals, it risked providing “an undefendable target” and “open[ing] an unwinnable debate”, its leaders explained. Our national crisis – which can best be defined as a failure to agree on what Brexit even means – goes back to the unforgivable dilettantism of a campaign that believed that, if it levelled with public, it would lose the game.

    The nationalism of the leaders of the Brexit movement is sincere but not serious. How can it be serious, when they know that if the game goes awry they can buy a business address in Dublin and skip away?


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/30/brexit-tax-avoiding-citizens-of-nowhere-migrate-to-malta
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Hey PBers. I've almost finished my script for my next video. It's on one of my favourite topics: UK housing.

    Basically, I'm saying that you definitely shouldn't own a property on the Primrose Hill, Camden borders. But other than that, you're OK.

    Or something like that :)

    So holding leveraged investments in appreciating assets is a good thing, and holding leveraged investments in depreciating assets can be a really bad thing, is that right? ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 1000, do you ever ad lib?

    Due to sore throat etc (and now a rapid timetable) I only ended up making one (recent) F1 'video' [radio] and found it easier to have broad topics in mind and make up the specific wording on the spot.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
    You are Max Miller AICMFP.
    I like the girls who do.
    I like the girls who don’t.
    I hate the girl who says she will and then she says she won’t.
    But the girl I like best of all, and I think you’ll say I’m right,
    is the girl who says she never does but she looks as though she ...

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvW_2gr8BGo
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    rcs1000 said:

    Hey PBers. I've almost finished my script for my next video. It's on one of my favourite topics: UK housing.

    Basically, I'm saying that you definitely shouldn't own a property on the Primrose Hill, Camden borders. But other than that, you're OK.

    Or something like that :)

    The only people who worry about UK housing (apart from first time buyers) are people who have just sold and worry that prices are about to soar.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523
    I'm fed up with this little fire in the north being the main headline news on the BBC news website (and elsewhere) for the last few days. When are the northern-biased media going to start covering stuff that happens in the east? We're *never* covered, and all the attention goes elsewhere.

    ;)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
    BUT DID SHE?
    A gentleman never tells.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rcs1000 said:
    Nothing to see here, just Arron Banks, chief funder of Leave.EU, propagating fascist memes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:



    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
    Arron Banks is a minister? I must have missed that appointment. What office does he hold?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Betting thoughts on the World Cup: the third-place playoff match between the two losing semi-finalists is often a high-scoring affair whereas the final itself is usually quite tight, so for golden boot (top-scorer, not to be confused with the golden ball for the top player) consider any striker in contention who has just missed out on the final.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    rcs1000 said:
    Nothing to see here, just Arron Banks, chief funder of Leave.EU, propagating fascist memes.

    It's an open and shut libel.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rcs1000 said:

    Hey PBers. I've almost finished my script for my next video. It's on one of my favourite topics: UK housing.

    Basically, I'm saying that you definitely shouldn't own a property on the Primrose Hill, Camden borders. But other than that, you're OK.

    Or something like that :)

    As usual Mr Meeks is ahead of the herd by selling up in Shoreditch and moving to the country.

    Handily, also closer to turnip stocks for the forthcoming Brexocalypse.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,881
    rcs1000 said:
    Wasn't Soros a teenager when the war ended? Did he fit in his collaborating between football practice and having a wank?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Foxy said:

    "Don't mention the VAR", is rivaled by this little piece of schadenfreude:

    https://twitter.com/falklands_utd/status/1013093659527565313?s=19

    As a Spurs fan I know that this kind of hubris comes back to bite very, very hard - and usually pretty quickly. Never take the piss or revel in the misfortunes of others until the game is fully played out.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Wasn't Soros a teenager when the war ended? Did he fit in his collaborating between football practice and having a wank?
    He was ‘hiding in plain sight’ IIRC; fostered by a Nazi former friend of his father. And you’re right; he was about 13 at the time.

    Anyway, does Arron Banks pay UK tax; I thought he was a Gibraltar resident? Apart from paying VAT on UK puyrchases, of course!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tlg86 said:

    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!

    I quite enjoyed his lengthy whinus opus. I wonder if he will ever tire of calling 18m people racists ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Dura_Ace said:

    rcs1000 said:
    Wasn't Soros a teenager when the war ended? Did he fit in his collaborating between football practice and having a wank?
    He was ‘hiding in plain sight’ IIRC; fostered by a Nazi former friend of his father. And you’re right; he was about 13 at the time.

    Anyway, does Arron Banks pay UK tax; I thought he was a Gibraltar resident? Apart from paying VAT on UK puyrchases, of course!
    Political betting, the home of fact checking “dank memes”.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!

    I quite enjoyed his lengthy whinus opus. I wonder if he will ever tire of calling 18m people racists ?

    You haven't read the article, have you?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Scott_P said:
    Many years agho I had a girl friend who behaved like DD. She would, she wouldn’t she might, she’d thought again.
    Very frustrating.
    BUT DID SHE?
    A gentleman never tells.
    So that's a NO then ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Betting thoughts on the World Cup: the third-place playoff match between the two losing semi-finalists is often a high-scoring affair whereas the final itself is usually quite tight, so for golden boot (top-scorer, not to be confused with the golden ball for the top player) consider any striker in contention who has just missed out on the final.

    Harry Kane then!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Andrew Marr '

    'The BBC is very much an urban metropolitan organisation and doesn't necessarily represent the whole Country'

    While he was talking about the number of transgender staff in the BBC he has unwittingly said something we all know about the BBC as a whole
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    The government is in the happy position of knowing that whatever it does, however badly it is split, however disastrously Brexit turns out, Jeremy Corbyn guarantees that the Tories will win the next general election. That is wonderful news for individual ministers and their ambitions, of course, but it means that there is absolutely no incentive for them as a collective to knuckle down, carve out a realistic negotiating stance and stick to it. What we are currently witnessing is a lot of people who want to succeed Theresa May establishing their credentials for the leadership election they expect before the next general election. That is much more important to all of them than ensuring the UK leaves the EU in the least harmful way possible. On that basis, it could just be that the very hardest of Brexits suits everyone: the fundamentalists get what they want, the soft Leavers get a disaster and the chance to say I told you so. It's for that reason that I am veering towards a No Deal departure: it suits so many personal agendas.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!

    I quite enjoyed his lengthy whinus opus. I wonder if he will ever tire of calling 18m people racists ?
    To be fair to Mr Meeks, he didn't mention X********c L**s in the header, and didn't call anyone racist. It's a well written piece, even if some of us might disagree with aspects of it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    I wonder if the public will even care that much about whatever deal is done. Might just be a bit bored of it all...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,751

    Roger said:



    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
    Arron Banks is a minister? I must have missed that appointment. What office does he hold?
    Who said Banks is a minister?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2018
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm calling Peak Meeks. He starts by saying how WW2 analogies are unsavoury before making one about WW1!

    I quite enjoyed his lengthy whinus opus. I wonder if he will ever tire of calling 18m people racists ?
    To be fair to Mr Meeks, he didn't mention X********c L**s in the header, and didn't call anyone racist. It's a well written piece, even if some of us might disagree with aspects of it.
    Agree and Alastair is so much better tthan his obsession with xenophobia
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722

    The government is in the happy position of knowing that whatever it does, however badly it is split, however disastrously Brexit turns out, Jeremy Corbyn guarantees that the Tories will win the next general election. That is wonderful news for individual ministers and their ambitions, of course, but it means that there is absolutely no incentive for them as a collective to knuckle down, carve out a realistic negotiating stance and stick to it. What we are currently witnessing is a lot of people who want to succeed Theresa May establishing their credentials for the leadership election they expect before the next general election. That is much more important to all of them than ensuring the UK leaves the EU in the least harmful way possible. On that basis, it could just be that the very hardest of Brexits suits everyone: the fundamentalists get what they want, the soft Leavers get a disaster and the chance to say I told you so. It's for that reason that I am veering towards a No Deal departure: it suits so many personal agendas.

    I fear you’re right. Does that mean we have to ‘hope’ for an out-of-control Islington bus?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,523
    Yet again, we have a thread where leavers witter on about xenophobia ... ;)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    I'm fed up with this little fire in the north being the main headline news on the BBC news website (and elsewhere) for the last few days. When are the northern-biased media going to start covering stuff that happens in the east? We're *never* covered, and all the attention goes elsewhere.

    ;)

    Fires update, from your Northern based media:

    Looks like my Friday update was on the mark, and the opportunity for westward spread meant Winter Hill was the one to watch when the wind picked up.

    Firefighters are being helped by the UK calling up the Emergency Mapping System capability of Copernicus (for Saddleworth on Thursday), and I spent a happy evening browsing their maps.

    Five burnt areas of size in the UK on last night's maps:

    Saddleworth Moor increased from 9sqkm to 10sqkm last night, with 45 points of fire detected.
    The 2 areas of Winter Hill that are now reported as merged, with 22 points of fire and 6sqkm
    Smaller ongoing fires near Harbottle, Northumberland 0.5sqkm (2 active points of fire but previous damage) and near
    Maerdy in the South Wales valleys, 0.2sqkm (4 active fire points)

    There also look to be at least 3 heath fires in an arc around 10-20 miles outside Dublin, the largest of which has burnt over 1sqkm.



  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    Taking a holiday in Milan. Despite the political chaos around things seem pretty normal. Milan is based on fashion and that is what the city looks after. The second thing is the number of British cars on the streets. Minis and range rovers everywhere.

    Our UK government needs to look after our finance industry and our car industry as they drive the wealth of the country. You only need to look at a country such as Venezuela to see what happens when the government fights with industry. This perspective is what the eu sees. They don’t believe our government would get into a fight with its big industries
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Betting thoughts on the World Cup: the third-place playoff match between the two losing semi-finalists is often a high-scoring affair whereas the final itself is usually quite tight, so for golden boot (top-scorer, not to be confused with the golden ball for the top player) consider any striker in contention who has just missed out on the final.

    Harry Kane then!
    I'm on Kane but was actually thinking of Mbappe (13/1) if France is knocked out in the semi-final by Brazil. But then there is Neymar if France beats Brazil. Tbh after being up most of the night considering the permutations I've just confused myself but wanted to post that key insight before I forgot it again.

    I cannot remember a World Cup like this. All (or nearly all) the teams can score; none of the teams can defend. I start from Spain and Brazil being far stronger than the other countries but then I remember the games they've played and the goals they have conceded against weak opposition, and wonder if I should rip up my papers and cards and start again. It is quite easy to see how England can win, or France, or Croatia or anyone. Except Russia. Unless you think the KGB is leaning on the scales.

    The silver lining is that this is the most entertaining World Cup I can remember.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,722
    Off to a triple birthday bash; son, daughter-in-law and granddaughter all had their birthdays this past week, so there’s ‘just’ the one family bash!

    Will you all have sorted Brexit by the time I log on tomorrow?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The BREXIT conundrum is simple if not over analysed :

    The punters were perfectly within their rights to shove the collective double digit at the EU. What Mr and Mrs UK of Acacia Avenue didn't expect was that the government through their spectacular incompetence would throw the same salutation back at the voters.

    Meanwhile with the right hand the EU throws a Churchillian "V" for Victory across the English Channel and with the left hand a single digit salute to Mrs May lamentable administration.

    Game over.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,745
    Morning All :)

    Just back from a glorious week in Ireland with Mrs Stodge. It is a truly beautiful country and I think we saw it at its absolute best especially the area round Killarney and the Ring of Kerry.

    Dublin was buzzing with tourists - we had the good fortune of staying in the Gresham on O'Connell Street - but so were Killarney and Galway.

    I draw no political conclusions from any of this - tourists will still come to Britain in large numbers and to Ireland too whatever the politics and the economics.

    The World Cup has been an exceptional tournament so far - I'm old enough to remember the classic 1982 quarter final between Italy and Brazil which saw the European style of Rossi down the Samba flair of Socrates, Falcao and Zico.

    It was one of the greatest games of football I have ever seen yet in both the opening Portugal-Spain match and yesterday's superb France-Argentina game we have had two more classics and there's still plenty to come. So far, at any rate, the quality of football has made this tournament a success irrespective of the qualms of those who argued we shouldn't attend.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Roger said:



    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
    Arron Banks is a minister? I must have missed that appointment. What office does he hold?
    Who said Banks is a minister?
    Roger. He quoted a Tweet about Arron Banks then referred in reply to how "these ministers" look. Banks isn't a minister.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    The single market, given it requires free movement and the customs union, given it prevents the UK doing its own trade deals are clearly not an option for the UK in the short term given the Leave vote and the Commons indeed rejected them last month.


    However the outline of a deal was done in December, namely citizens' rights, which thanks to Javid the UK has now made more progress on than the EU with plans for a simple registration scheme well under way and the extent of the exit bill agreed at around 40 billion euros. The key issue is Ireland and whether only a Customs Union for Ireland alone will be acceptable or a sufficient degree of regulatory alignment. If the former then that will not be acceptable to the DUP or the UK government and there will be no transition period and no FTA and a Brexiteer will likely succeed May by the end of next year as we head to WTO terms. If the latter then a transition period will take us until the end of 2021 with FTA negotiations ongoing in the meantime
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    VAR = Very Annoyed Remainers?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited July 2018
    Very good thread header as usual Alastair. Thanks!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited July 2018
    Alastair's right to the extent that this is a negotiation, not a war. There does not have to be winners and losers. Both sides can win. How is that possible and what will "winning" look like?

    Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.

    We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.

    They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.

    So we need a deal which:

    Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
    Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
    Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
    Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
    Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.

    This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    stodge said:

    Morning All :)

    Just back from a glorious week in Ireland with Mrs Stodge. It is a truly beautiful country and I think we saw it at its absolute best especially the area round Killarney and the Ring of Kerry.

    Dublin was buzzing with tourists - we had the good fortune of staying in the Gresham on O'Connell Street - but so were Killarney and Galway.

    I draw no political conclusions from any of this - tourists will still come to Britain in large numbers and to Ireland too whatever the politics and the economics.

    The World Cup has been an exceptional tournament so far - I'm old enough to remember the classic 1982 quarter final between Italy and Brazil which saw the European style of Rossi down the Samba flair of Socrates, Falcao and Zico.

    It was one of the greatest games of football I have ever seen yet in both the opening Portugal-Spain match and yesterday's superb France-Argentina game we have had two more classics and there's still plenty to come. So far, at any rate, the quality of football has made this tournament a success irrespective of the qualms of those who argued we shouldn't attend.

    Agree re the World Cup - very enjoyable so far. Last night's games were both really good.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,751

    Roger said:



    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
    Arron Banks is a minister? I must have missed that appointment. What office does he hold?
    Who said Banks is a minister?
    Roger. He quoted a Tweet about Arron Banks then referred in reply to how "these ministers" look. Banks isn't a minister.
    2 separate posts, the "these ministers" one coming first with regard to DD.

    I know we live in febrile times, but I hope no one is pushing the dystopian prospect of Banks being a minister.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited July 2018
    O/T... When will the minister for drought be appointed?

    We had just 1.6mm of rain in June in N Dorset; average is 53mm. No rain at all in the last 2 weeks and none forecast for next week. July looks to be dry according to the Met Office long range forecast. Mini-crisis looming later in the summer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    VAR = Very Annoyed Remainers?

    It's what we're going to end up with Sunil: Virtually Almost Remain
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Roger said:



    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't anyone on the Brexit side despair at how ridiculous these ministers look to our infinitely more urbane EU partners or to the rest of the world who now know what partnership with us will be letting themselves in for?
    Arron Banks is a minister? I must have missed that appointment. What office does he hold?
    Who said Banks is a minister?
    Roger. He quoted a Tweet about Arron Banks then referred in reply to how "these ministers" look. Banks isn't a minister.
    2 separate posts, the "these ministers" one coming first with regard to DD.

    I know we live in febrile times, but I hope no one is pushing the dystopian prospect of Banks being a minister.
    Sadly no more outrageous than Trump as POTUS :disappointed:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    Alastair's right to the extent that this is a negotiation, not a war. There does not have to be winners and losers. Both sides can win. How is that possible and what will "winning" look like?

    Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.

    We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.

    They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.

    So we need a deal which:

    Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
    Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
    Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
    Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
    Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.

    This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.

    Not bad - but why preferential rights of access to EU citizens ? A deal for those already here certainly. But in the long term surely we treat all countries and races equally ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,546
    The UK will need to agree the Northern Ireland backstop that it provisionally signed up to in December last year. That will avoid immediate chaos, let the UK leave the European Union per the referendum and buys eighteen months until the next cliff edge. That's the only thing that matters right now. (Although there is something about Gibraltar as well. I'm not sure what's needed there)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: hmm. Betfair also only has half, or fewer, of the markets one would expect up. Bit odd.

    Anyway, race starts at 2pm (well, just after due to needless tinkering from Liberty) so I'll get on with something else and check again later.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    O/T... When will the minister for drought be appointed?

    We had just 1.6mm of rain in June in N Dorset; average is 53mm. No rain at all in the last 2 weeks and none forecast for next week. July looks to be dry according to the Met Office long range forecast. Mini-crisis looming later in the summer.

    Cutting the grass yesterday there was a lot of dust. Even in Scotland the ground is remarkably dry. Quite a lot of the grass gave the impression of having stopped growing.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    Alastair's right to the extent that this is a negotiation, not a war. There does not have to be winners and losers. Both sides can win. How is that possible and what will "winning" look like?

    Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.

    We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.

    They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.

    So we need a deal which:

    Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
    Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
    Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
    Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
    Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.

    This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.

    Not bad - but why preferential rights of access to EU citizens ? A deal for those already here certainly. But in the long term surely we treat all countries and races equally ?
    Because they want it and we can live with it in exchange for cooperation in academic areas and research. This is a trade.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    The government is in the happy position of knowing that whatever it does, however badly it is split, however disastrously Brexit turns out, Jeremy Corbyn guarantees that the Tories will win the next general election. That is wonderful news for individual ministers and their ambitions, of course, but it means that there is absolutely no incentive for them as a collective to knuckle down, carve out a realistic negotiating stance and stick to it. What we are currently witnessing is a lot of people who want to succeed Theresa May establishing their credentials for the leadership election they expect before the next general election. That is much more important to all of them than ensuring the UK leaves the EU in the least harmful way possible. On that basis, it could just be that the very hardest of Brexits suits everyone: the fundamentalists get what they want, the soft Leavers get a disaster and the chance to say I told you so. It's for that reason that I am veering towards a No Deal departure: it suits so many personal agendas.

    I doubt any Tory MP believes that "Jeremy Corbyn guarantees the Tories will win the next election". The last election will have put paid to that delusion.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    O/T... When will the minister for drought be appointed?

    We had just 1.6mm of rain in June in N Dorset; average is 53mm. No rain at all in the last 2 weeks and none forecast for next week. July looks to be dry according to the Met Office long range forecast. Mini-crisis looming later in the summer.

    Im pleased to announce it’s raining heavily here in west Cornwall - I guess it’ll work its way up the country during the day.

    Perhaps DD could move over to drought minister to save face. He could spend his time refusing to prepare for no rain because the rain needs us more than we need it, and insist that we will have plenty of rain but Wimbledon will continue uninterrupted.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,546
    DavidL said:

    Alastair's right to the extent that this is a negotiation, not a war. There does not have to be winners and losers. Both sides can win. How is that possible and what will "winning" look like?

    Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.

    We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.

    They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.

    So we need a deal which:

    Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
    Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
    Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
    Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
    Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.

    This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.

    Fanatic is a loaded term, but what you set it out here won't happen and probably can't happen. The EU is a multilateral policy and legal framework that you either sign up to (and qualify for) or you don't. If you don't, you become a third country. Not necessarily a stupid choice, but one that will see a big cut in our relationships and prospects. You have to really hate the EU (be a fanatic?) for it to be worth it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Polruan said:

    O/T... When will the minister for drought be appointed?

    We had just 1.6mm of rain in June in N Dorset; average is 53mm. No rain at all in the last 2 weeks and none forecast for next week. July looks to be dry according to the Met Office long range forecast. Mini-crisis looming later in the summer.

    Im pleased to announce it’s raining heavily here in west Cornwall - I guess it’ll work its way up the country during the day.

    Perhaps DD could move over to drought minister to save face. He could spend his time refusing to prepare for no rain because the rain needs us more than we need it, and insist that we will have plenty of rain but Wimbledon will continue uninterrupted.
    Glad you have some rain in Cornwall - not sure it's going to extend much past Devon though according to Met Office. There might be some isolated heavy showers here but only a 10% chance.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Alastair's right to the extent that this is a negotiation, not a war. There does not have to be winners and losers. Both sides can win. How is that possible and what will "winning" look like?

    Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.

    We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.

    They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.

    So we need a deal which:

    Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
    Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
    Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
    Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
    Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.

    This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.

    Fanatic is a loaded term, but what you set it out here won't happen and probably can't happen. The EU is a multilateral policy and legal framework that you either sign up to (and qualify for) or you don't. If you don't, you become a third country. Not necessarily a stupid choice, but one that will see a big cut in our relationships and prospects. You have to really hate the EU (be a fanatic?) for it to be worth it.
    That is not necessary. The structure does not exist as an end in itself (except for the fanatics) but as a means to protect legitimate aims. There is more than 1 way of achieving that, particularly in a country that already meets all of their standards and has them embedded in its law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    The government is in the happy position of knowing that whatever it does, however badly it is split, however disastrously Brexit turns out, Jeremy Corbyn guarantees that the Tories will win the next general election. That is wonderful news for individual ministers and their ambitions, of course, but it means that there is absolutely no incentive for them as a collective to knuckle down, carve out a realistic negotiating stance and stick to it. What we are currently witnessing is a lot of people who want to succeed Theresa May establishing their credentials for the leadership election they expect before the next general election. That is much more important to all of them than ensuring the UK leaves the EU in the least harmful way possible. On that basis, it could just be that the very hardest of Brexits suits everyone: the fundamentalists get what they want, the soft Leavers get a disaster and the chance to say I told you so. It's for that reason that I am veering towards a No Deal departure: it suits so many personal agendas.

    I doubt any Tory MP believes that "Jeremy Corbyn guarantees the Tories will win the next election". The last election will have put paid to that delusion.
    The Tories still got a higher voteshare at the last general election than any general election since 1983 and over 50 more seats than Labour. Corbyn did better than expected but he still did not win and current polling shows that 42% for the Tories is still more and less rock solid given Corbyn is the alternative
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited July 2018

    The government is in the happy position of knowing that whatever it does, however badly it is split, however disastrously Brexit turns out, Jeremy Corbyn guarantees that the Tories will win the next general election. That is wonderful news for individual ministers and their ambitions, of course, but it means that there is absolutely no incentive for them as a collective to knuckle down, carve out a realistic negotiating stance and stick to it. What we are currently witnessing is a lot of people who want to succeed Theresa May establishing their credentials for the leadership election they expect before the next general election. That is much more important to all of them than ensuring the UK leaves the EU in the least harmful way possible. On that basis, it could just be that the very hardest of Brexits suits everyone: the fundamentalists get what they want, the soft Leavers get a disaster and the chance to say I told you so. It's for that reason that I am veering towards a No Deal departure: it suits so many personal agendas.

    Just on your first point, that is surely a very dangerous place for the Tories to position themselves. Relying on an unelectable (in their eyes) opposition leader staying in place for the next 3 1/2 years, especially with all the changes that have to come in the political landscape in the intervening period, seems a fantastically short sighted position to adopt.

    My view is that even with a good Brexit, any change of leadership at the top of the Labour Party must result in the Tories falling. To place all their money on Corbyn still being there in 2022 seems outrageously foolhardy.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    FF43 said:

    The UK will need to agree the Northern Ireland backstop that it provisionally signed up to in December last year. That will avoid immediate chaos, let the UK leave the European Union per the referendum and buys eighteen months until the next cliff edge. That's the only thing that matters right now. (Although there is something about Gibraltar as well. I'm not sure what's needed there)

    Change of government in Spain may make things a little less difficult on the Gibraltar front.

This discussion has been closed.