politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s Gallup approval rating drops a net minus nine in a week
We’ve now got the first Gallup approval ratings for the period entirely after the immigration clampdown that saw children being forcibly separated from their parents.
The whole Trump situation is a circus, and makes the US look an absolute joke. It'd be nice to sit back and watch except for the risk it creates for the rest of the world.
TBH, looking at that graph the drop in Trump's approval ratings doesn't look outside the normal range of fluctuations. If anything, the previous rating looks like a slight outlier and this looks more like a reversion to trend.
TBH, looking at that graph the drop in Trump's approval ratings doesn't look outside the normal range of fluctuations. If anything, the previous rating looks like a slight outlier and this looks more like a reversion to trend.
The previous rating may also have been a reaction to positive headlines about North Korea. Whether those would naturally have decayed and how rapidly is hard to say for sure
TBH, looking at that graph the drop in Trump's approval ratings doesn't look outside the normal range of fluctuations. If anything, the previous rating looks like a slight outlier and this looks more like a reversion to trend.
538 has him at 42/52, a level where you'd expect the Dems to take the House, but still possibly lose some Red State Senators.
I still think it is possible for Trump in 2020 to lose the popular vote by even larger margin than in 2016 and still win the Electoral College.
Unlikely given he won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1%.
Ironically the reverse may be the case especially if Sanders is his opponent, in areas of California like Orange County that voted for Hillary but are normally GOP his approval rating is up to 50% while nationally it is down to 41%. It is possible Sanders could win Pennsylvania and enough upper Midwest and rustbelt states to narrowly win the Electoral College but narrowly lose the popular vote to Trump as some suburban independents and moderate Republicans in New York and California who voted for Hillary over Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep out Sanders
Mark Lawrenson commentary horrendously bias to Iran here
Fixed that for you.
are you sure you are not just showing your own bias?... and is he commentating? I thought he was a sidekick summariser?
I'm never sure of that.
They may have a different terminology for the main and sidekick commentator, but both are usually listed as commentators for the game, and are talking about the same amount of time, so I don't think any distinction is really necessary.
'What made this particularly challenging for him were the TV pictures and sounds of the crying children on being taken away from their parents. It was a lot harder for the normal Trump response of “fake news”'
Not that much harder, though.
'In June 2018 social media users began circulating a heart-rending photograph depicting a sobbing toddler clutching the bars of a cage in which he is confined, usually accompanied by commentary stating that the image depicted a boy who had been detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in 2018... the photograph was taken on 10 June 2018, but it did not show a child confined by immigration authorities to a cage. Rather, it was snapped during a protest staged in front of Dallas City Hall' (1)
'In May 2018, a photograph of two children sleeping inside a fenced enclosure was widely circulated via social media with accompanying text stating that it pictured a “kids’ concentration camp” in the U.S.... This photograph dates from 2014 (during the Obama administration) and was not directly related to a mid-2018 controversy over Trump administration policy of separating children from undocumented migrant parents at the U.S. border.' (2; this was tweeted by Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau and subsequently deleted when he was informed of its provenance).
Then, of course, we have the Time cover of a crying young girl who was brutally separated from her family - by her mother, who abandoned her husband and three of her children in Honduras and paid $6,000 to a people smuggler to get her across the US border, presumably taking only the youngest of her children because she expected it to give her the best chance of claiming asylum.
'What made this particularly challenging for him were the TV pictures and sounds of the crying children on being taken away from their parents. It was a lot harder for the normal Trump response of “fake news”'
Not that much harder, though.
'In June 2018 social media users began circulating a heart-rending photograph depicting a sobbing toddler clutching the bars of a cage in which he is confined, usually accompanied by commentary stating that the image depicted a boy who had been detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in 2018... the photograph was taken on 10 June 2018, but it did not show a child confined by immigration authorities to a cage. Rather, it was snapped during a protest staged in front of Dallas City Hall' (1)
'In May 2018, a photograph of two children sleeping inside a fenced enclosure was widely circulated via social media with accompanying text stating that it pictured a “kids’ concentration camp” in the U.S.... This photograph dates from 2014 (during the Obama administration) and was not directly related to a mid-2018 controversy over Trump administration policy of separating children from undocumented migrant parents at the U.S. border.' (2; this was tweeted by Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau and subsequently deleted when he was informed of its provenance).
Then, of course, we have the Time cover of a crying young girl who was brutally separated from her family - by her mother, who abandoned her husband and three of her children in Honduras and paid $6,000 to a people smuggler to get her across the US border, presumably taking only the youngest of her children because she expected it to give her the best chance of claiming asylum.
I still think it is possible for Trump in 2020 to lose the popular vote by even larger margin than in 2016 and still win the Electoral College.
Unlikely given he won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1%.
Ironically the reverse may be the case especially if Sanders is his opponent, in areas of California like Orange County that voted for Hillary but are normally GOP his approval rating is up to 50% while nationally it is down to 41%. It is possible Sanders could win Pennsylvania and enough upper Midwest and rustbelt states to narrowly win the Electoral College but narrowly lose the popular vote to Trump as some suburban independents and moderate Republicans in New York and California who voted for Hillary over Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep out Sanders
You think any Republican let alone Trump can will California or New York. I wouldn't even be so sure about Arizona or Texas.
As for Carole, she's letting her views cloud her judgment.
Wake me up when Michael Crick starts running stories on this.
That's when Leavers should get worried.
Michael has also been known to lose sense of perspective from time to time...I remember the infamous Crewe by-election where he had a conspiracy theory about the Tory doing something dodgy with canvasing data. And of course the Battle Bus story, he went way OTT on that, conflating all sorts of things in order to come with talk that so many results of seats could have been null and void that the GE2015 result could have been under threat.
The defender stepped across in front of him gaining possession and control of the ball. He is entitled to do that, even if the person with the ball is Ronaldo.
The defender stepped across in front of him gaining possession and control of the ball. He is entitled to do that, even if the person with the ball is Ronaldo.
The defender only had eyes for Ronaldo. He had no intention of gaining possession of the ball.
I still think it is possible for Trump in 2020 to lose the popular vote by even larger margin than in 2016 and still win the Electoral College.
Unlikely given he won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1%.
Ironically the reverse may be the case especially if Sanders is his opponent, in areas of California like Orange County that voted for Hillary but are normally GOP his approval rating is up to 50% while nationally it is down to 41%. It is possible Sanders could win Pennsylvania and enough upper Midwest and rustbelt states to narrowly win the Electoral College but narrowly lose the popular vote to Trump as some suburban independents and moderate Republicans in New York and California who voted for Hillary over Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep out Sanders
You think any Republican let alone Trump can will California or New York. I wouldn't even be so sure about Arizona or Texas.
No but if Trump won a million more votes in each of California and New York he could win the national popular vote even if the Democratic candidate still won both states comfortably.
Though of course Giuliani and Schwarzanneger and Pataki all won New York city, California or New York state at some point in the last 25 years for the Republicans
My map is a northern area defined as ‘not London,’ where London’s sphere of influence extends over most of the country - determined by two-hour commuting patterns which is becoming the norm
...what was wrong with a geographic definition, albeit a fuzzy one?
Puts hands up. There are counter examples where it has been utilised well at this very world cup, and handled quicker. The problems are related to operation, not the principle. For instance, the VAR officials are overly harsh on situations where someone heads a ball into someone else's arm which they couldn'tt possibly avoid, and when they call over the ref to review it the expectation is they should overturn.
The weird thing is that if this referee did not have VAR he might have had a decent game. He has got things right first time and then made truly perverse decisions looking at the replays.
Puts hands up. There are counter examples where it has been utilised well at this very world cup, and handled quicker. The problems are related to operation, not the principle. For instance, the VAR officials are overly harsh on situations where someone heads a ball into someone else's arm which they couldn'tt possibly avoid, and when they call over the ref to review it the expectation is they should overturn.
It has to be a challenge based system. The current rules are just chaos.
Puts hands up. There are counter examples where it has been utilised well at this very world cup, and handled quicker. The problems are related to operation, not the principle. For instance, the VAR officials are overly harsh on situations where someone heads a ball into someone else's arm which they couldn'tt possibly avoid, and when they call over the ref to review it the expectation is they should overturn.
It has to be a challenge based system. The current rules are just chaos.
Yes, they haven't sorted out the best approach prior to this world cup. But it can work, and does not seem beyond even the remedial wit of Fifa to figure it out.
The weird thing is that if this referee did not have VAR he might have had a decent game. He has got things right first time and then made truly perverse decisions looking at the replays.
The ref has had a shocker. Don't they realise stuff ALWAYS looks worse on slow Mo ?
Puts hands up. There are counter examples where it has been utilised well at this very world cup, and handled quicker. The problems are related to operation, not the principle. For instance, the VAR officials are overly harsh on situations where someone heads a ball into someone else's arm which they couldn'tt possibly avoid, and when they call over the ref to review it the expectation is they should overturn.
Wait until England go out to a crazy VAR decision before deciding!
The weird thing is that if this referee did not have VAR he might have had a decent game. He has got things right first time and then made truly perverse decisions looking at the replays.
The ref has had a shocker. Don't they realise stuff ALWAYS looks worse on slow Mo ?
2 penalties that weren't and a truly ridiculous booking for Ronaldo.
I still think it is possible for Trump in 2020 to lose the popular vote by even larger margin than in 2016 and still win the Electoral College.
Unlikely given he won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1%.
Ironically the reverse may be the case especially if Sanders is his opponent, in areas of California like Orange County that voted for Hillary but are normally GOP his approval rating is up to 50% while nationally it is down to 41%. It is possible Sanders could win Pennsylvania and enough upper Midwest and rustbelt states to narrowly win the Electoral College but narrowly lose the popular vote to Trump as some suburban independents and moderate Republicans in New York and California who voted for Hillary over Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep out Sanders
You think any Republican let alone Trump can will California or New York. I wouldn't even be so sure about Arizona or Texas.
No but if Trump won a million more votes in each of California and New York he could win the national popular vote even if the Democratic candidate still won both states comfortably.
Though of course Giuliani and Schwarzanneger and Pataki all won New York city, California or New York state at some point in the last 25 years for the Republicans
All three of those were quite moderate Republicans in their day, and might as well be Democrats by today's standards. And don't forget that Sanders or someone like him will bring the Jill Steiners etc back to the Dems, whilst not a few of the voters that they might drive away from the Dems would similarly go to other non-Trump parties like the Libertarians.
Does not add up, why go to the amateur part of the leave campaign when the professionals are available.
The professionals are toxic and have egos that would get in the way. By going for the young hired help with unimpeachable leave credentials he can wrap hope to wrap up the Brexiteer vote without compromising his own room for manoeuvre.
Vanilla acts very strangely on my PC using Windows 7. With Chrome it runs ragged, but does let me sign in. With Explorer it doesn't let me even do that.
Concerning Trump, let me just say that his face would look good on a three dollar bill.
Does not add up, why go to the amateur part of the leave campaign when the professionals are available.
The professionals are toxic and have egos that would get in the way. By going for the young hired help with unimpeachable leave credentials he can wrap hope to wrap up the Brexiteer vote without compromising his own room for manoeuvre.
Sorry, just wrong. Leave.EU was the dreggs of the leave campaign. Basically Banks and Farage with the support of Cash, Jenkin, Bone or the old dinosaurs. Vote Leave were the professionals and also stuffed full of Tory Spads, afterwards a few were appointed to the T May team. So they are much better connected to the Tory Party than anybody who worked for Leave.EU. Cummings is still involved with Boris and Gove.
Put me in the camp of those pissed off about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
Put me in the camp of those pissed off about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
Unusually, I completely agree with you. It's just crazy. Well, I guess we'll just have to content ourselves with HS2. And Brexit.
Put me in the camp of those pissed off about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
Put me in the camp of those pissed off about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
CR they wanted a strike price agreed for 90 years. 90 years! New nuclear only wants 35
Put me in the camp of those pissed off about the Swansea Tidal Lagoon project.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
CR they wanted a strike price agreed for 90 years. 90 years! New nuclear only wants 35
Comments
The whole Trump situation is a circus, and makes the US look an absolute joke. It'd be nice to sit back and watch except for the risk it creates for the rest of the world.
Ironically the reverse may be the case especially if Sanders is his opponent, in areas of California like Orange County that voted for Hillary but are normally GOP his approval rating is up to 50% while nationally it is down to 41%. It is possible Sanders could win Pennsylvania and enough upper Midwest and rustbelt states to narrowly win the Electoral College but narrowly lose the popular vote to Trump as some suburban independents and moderate Republicans in New York and California who voted for Hillary over Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump to keep out Sanders
I reckon Wigmore and Farage are full of piss and wind.
There's no way you can poll 60,000 people in a short space of time, no pollster has that capability.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1011235762795372544
They may have a different terminology for the main and sidekick commentator, but both are usually listed as commentators for the game, and are talking about the same amount of time, so I don't think any distinction is really necessary.
Not that much harder, though.
'In June 2018 social media users began circulating a heart-rending photograph depicting a sobbing toddler clutching the bars of a cage in which he is confined, usually accompanied by commentary stating that the image depicted a boy who had been detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in 2018... the photograph was taken on 10 June 2018, but it did not show a child confined by immigration authorities to a cage. Rather, it was snapped during a protest staged in front of Dallas City Hall' (1)
'In May 2018, a photograph of two children sleeping inside a fenced enclosure was widely circulated via social media with accompanying text stating that it pictured a “kids’ concentration camp” in the U.S.... This photograph dates from 2014 (during the Obama administration) and was not directly related to a mid-2018 controversy over Trump administration policy of separating children from undocumented migrant parents at the U.S. border.' (2; this was tweeted by Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau and subsequently deleted when he was informed of its provenance).
Then, of course, we have the Time cover of a crying young girl who was brutally separated from her family - by her mother, who abandoned her husband and three of her children in Honduras and paid $6,000 to a people smuggler to get her across the US border, presumably taking only the youngest of her children because she expected it to give her the best chance of claiming asylum.
It's important to keep these things clear,
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/status/746421771830583296?s=21
As for Carole, she's letting her views cloud her judgment.
Wake me up when Michael Crick starts running stories on this.
That's when Leavers should get worried.
If you're from Manchester, Leeds or Sheffield, this professor thinks you're a southerner
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/youre-manchester-leeds-sheffield-professor-12778530
https://twitter.com/dianejamesmep/status/1011274340061646850?s=21
With a record like that he's allowed to take them ???
That Moroccan who scored the brilliant own goal must now be feeling even sicker.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/1011313290306293762?s=21
Though of course Giuliani and Schwarzanneger and Pataki all won New York city, California or New York state at some point in the last 25 years for the Republicans
(Sorry, miserable day at work.)
https://news.grabien.com/story-england-hillary-trashes-americas-electoral-college
...what was wrong with a geographic definition, albeit a fuzzy one?
Oh gods Iran, you were so close there.
I honestly thought he'd got it.
With Explorer it doesn't let me even do that.
Concerning Trump, let me just say that his face would look good on a three dollar bill.
Cummings is still involved with Boris and Gove.
I thought it was an extremely exciting new technology, with potential big wins for UK plc and pure energy security.
Yes, it’s unproven and a bit pricey upfront (what new tech isn’t?) but i think it was worthy of further work, and would help regenerate some of our more deprived/isolated regions as well.
Well, I guess we'll just have to content ourselves with HS2.
And Brexit.
They don't understand that it still comes down to subjective decisions in some cases.
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Staffordshire
Herefordshire
Surrey
Kent
There seems to be a pattern of low scores at the start of the working week slowly increasing to a weekend peak.