...even if Farage did his concession speech in the knowledge of one private poll that showed a Leave win that could still have been purely a political calculation...
I don't quite understand this.
If the vote had gone for Remain then I would have thought that a "victory" declaration early on would have helped to establish the idea in some people's minds that the victory for Leave had in some way been robbed from them. And with the result going for Leave he gets to be lauded for his good judgement.
As it is, didn't he just look like a prat?
He would have looked more like one had he been boasting about a victory that never happened. I think people are clever enough to know that just because Farage says something, it doesn’t mean it is.
I think there is some confusion over the Bloomberg article (which isn't too surprising because the article is confusingly written).
- Hedge funds are reported to have commissioned their own private polls, and worked with pollsters and academics to set up models which would allow them to predict the outcome as results came in. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that: even in the Alice-In-Wonderland world of financial regulation, you are still allowed to do your own research! Indeed PB's very own AndyJS helped make some of us decent profits as results came in with his excellent model of the 'par' results by area.
- Completely separately from that legitimate using of polling, Bloomberg seem to be alleging that some pollsters may have given hedge funds advance information on polls which were going to be released publicly, and which on release would move the markets, thus allowing the funds to make very profits on the short-term jumps when the polls were released. That's a pretty incendiary allegation, and would almost certainly be illegal market manipulation if true. (Be careful discussing this - some of the allegations could be libellous).
That article needs reading very carefully indeed, it’s clearly been reviewed by a lawyer or two who think they can disclaim in court what every lay person thinks it’s saying.
Rather reminiscent of those Observer articles from a couple of months ago that discussed Cambridge Analytica and the Vote Leave campaign, being very careful to avoid explicitly saying that there was a contractual or financial relationship between the two organisations
...even if Farage did his concession speech in the knowledge of one private poll that showed a Leave win that could still have been purely a political calculation...
I don't quite understand this.
If the vote had gone for Remain then I would have thought that a "victory" declaration early on would have helped to establish the idea in some people's minds that the victory for Leave had in some way been robbed from them. And with the result going for Leave he gets to be lauded for his good judgement.
As it is, didn't he just look like a prat?
That's kind of what I mean. I think his "declaration" was because that's what he thought would happen (and wanted to happen). Actually winning blew up the narrative he wanted just as much as it did Boris Johnson's.
...even if Farage did his concession speech in the knowledge of one private poll that showed a Leave win that could still have been purely a political calculation...
I don't quite understand this.
If the vote had gone for Remain then I would have thought that a "victory" declaration early on would have helped to establish the idea in some people's minds that the victory for Leave had in some way been robbed from them. And with the result going for Leave he gets to be lauded for his good judgement.
As it is, didn't he just look like a prat?
That's kind of what I mean. I think his "declaration" was because that's what he thought would happen (and wanted to happen). Actually winning blew up the narrative he wanted just as much as it did Boris Johnson's.
I really don’t by the argument that Farage wanted to lose. Boris, maybe, but not Farage.
...even if Farage did his concession speech in the knowledge of one private poll that showed a Leave win that could still have been purely a political calculation...
I don't quite understand this.
If the vote had gone for Remain then I would have thought that a "victory" declaration early on would have helped to establish the idea in some people's minds that the victory for Leave had in some way been robbed from them. And with the result going for Leave he gets to be lauded for his good judgement.
As it is, didn't he just look like a prat?
That's kind of what I mean. I think his "declaration" was because that's what he thought would happen (and wanted to happen). Actually winning blew up the narrative he wanted just as much as it did Boris Johnson's.
I really don’t by the argument that Farage wanted to lose. Boris, maybe, but not Farage.
I think Farage had a much more realistic understanding of how difficult Brexit would be to execute than many other people associated with the Leave campaign and his goal was always to destroy the EU rather than just leave it.
2% is an unusual amount in one day. The first big big drop last February was 2.6%.
The yearly pattern looks worrying. A double top. Could go down to 6900 in a few days - nearly a 10% drop. Could be painful for those with investments on margin.
Got a meeting with our pension advisors tomorrow morning. Thought we were going to be discussing their incredibly smug summary of the latest quarter. Now we have something else to talk about!
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May... I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
If only the EU would actually start negotiation on the future relationship. How many months have been wasted on discussing the no deal scenario? It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May... I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
If only the EU would actually start negotiation on the future relationship. How many months have been wasted on discussing the no deal scenario? It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Why should they ? They don't owe us anything. Oh, I forgot, they "need us" !
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May... I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
If only the EU would actually start negotiation on the future relationship. How many months have been wasted on discussing the no deal scenario? It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Why should they ? They don't owe us anything. Oh, I forgot, they "need us" !
No, but it would be in the interests of both sides to have a FTA, don’t you think?
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Hold on, doesn't this mean that Farage, the master populist, tribune of the ordinary chap, had misread the public mood on this, in the same way as all the other elite, metropolitan, public school educated journalists, commentators, analysts, pollsters, BBC presenters etc etc.?
2% is an unusual amount in one day. The first big big drop last February was 2.6%.
The yearly pattern looks worrying. A double top. Could go down to 6900 in a few days - nearly a 10% drop. Could be painful for those with investments on margin.
Got a meeting with our pension advisors tomorrow morning. Thought we were going to be discussing their incredibly smug summary of the latest quarter. Now we have something else to talk about!
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Hold on, doesn't this mean that Farage, the master populist, tribune of the ordinary chap, had misread the public mood on this, in the same way as all the other elite, metropolitan, public school educated journalists, commentators, analysts, pollsters, BBC presenters etc etc.?
Given how badly everyone else misread it, no wonder he had his doubts!
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Hold on, doesn't this mean that Farage, the master populist, tribune of the ordinary chap, had misread the public mood on this, in the same way as all the other elite, metropolitan, public school educated journalists, commentators, analysts, pollsters, BBC presenters etc etc.?
To be honest I don't think it means much more than Isabel Oakeshott thinks this is the most convenient message to be put out on Nigel Farage's behalf at this moment.
S'funny how there's no suggestion that the referendum result was in any way incorrectly counted, but the Leavers - almost to a (wo)man - are in absolute denial that Farage could possibly be a fraudulent spiv. It's not like he's got a stock market background or anything...
Who gives a shiny shit about Farage? He represented a constituency that were always going to vote Leave, even if he had been found in bed with the dead girl or live boy of Edwin Edwards fame.
It was Boris who turned the Referendum result, by emboldening those Tories who had profound doubts but would ordinarily have been minded to support the PM.
Boris was ten times more important in marshalling the cohort of voters who actually delivered Brexit. Ably assisted by Cameron and Osborne, who made Boris's job so much easier.
I think this is a good example of the research that showed how people's preconceptions affect how they judge new information. The story of Farage spinning a lie to help his hedge fund mates to make millions out of Brexit is the sort of story that I really want to believe, because it confirms my pre-existing beliefs about Farage's character.
But there was no secret exit poll. There was some work done to be able to interpret the early results accurately, and consequently make a lot of money.
It would be a lot easier if Farage could simply be caught out as a wrong 'un. But taking this story at face value would be to indulge in a comfort blanket to avoid reality.
Lest I face the risk of having too many of my sparring partners on here agreeing with me, let me just put this link here.
The yearly pattern looks worrying. A double top. Could go down to 6900 in a few days - nearly a 10% drop. Could be painful for those with investments on margin.
I think there is some confusion over the Bloomberg article (which isn't too surprising because the article is confusingly written).
- Hedge funds are reported to have commissioned their own private polls, and worked with pollsters and academics to set up models which would allow them to predict the outcome as results came in. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that: even in the Alice-In-Wonderland world of financial regulation, you are still allowed to do your own research! Indeed PB's very own AndyJS helped make some of us decent profits as results came in with his excellent model of the 'par' results by area.
- Completely separately from that legitimate using of polling, Bloomberg seem to be alleging that some pollsters may have given hedge funds advance information on polls which were going to be released publicly, and which on release would move the markets, thus allowing the funds to make very profits on the short-term jumps when the polls were released. That's a pretty incendiary allegation, and would almost certainly be illegal market manipulation if true. (Be careful discussing this - some of the allegations could be libellous).
I owe AndyJS a beer. That model made me a LOT of money.
But there was no secret exit poll. There was some work done to be able to interpret the early results accurately, and consequently make a lot of money.
....and that work was shared with his fellow pb.com posters!
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May... I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
If only the EU would actually start negotiation on the future relationship. How many months have been wasted on discussing the no deal scenario? It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I still think the UK is playing a bigger part than generally acknowledged in hyperfocussing and stalling things on the Irish border, as a way to press the EU into greater SM and customs (union) access than would otherwise be available without formal participation in or contribution to either.
Whether such a thing is wise, I reserve judgement, but Ireland being a smallish player, it is a hand that the UK could very easily overplay.
I am having some difficulty in working out how this might amount to insider trading. Although Insider Trading has been extended beyond traded shares (covered by the 1993 Act) by the Market Abuse Regulation this only came into force on 3rd July 2016, which is too late. It would also require actions in respect of either a financial instrument or at least a product whose price was affected by a financial instrument. This could apply to currencies but I struggle to see how it could apply to, say, Betfair.
"“if at the end of the day the supply chain will have a stop at the border, then we cannot sell our products in the UK”
Fixed that for him.
And how do you think people in Australia and New Zealand manage to drive around without any car production there?
Same way as the Uk people eat French cheese now but may switch to other types of cheese if we have to put a big retaliatory tariff on it in response to car part shenanigans from the EU.
"“if at the end of the day the supply chain will have a stop at the border, then we cannot sell our products in the UK”
Fixed that for him.
And how do you think people in Australia and New Zealand manage to drive around without any car production there?
Same way as the Uk people eat French cheese now but may switch to other types of cheese if we have to put a big retaliatory tariff on it in response to car part shenanigans from the EU.
So we're going to retaliate against our own policy of leaving the single market? Perhaps cut off the hand that we used to shoot ourselves in the foot?
Maybe 'the big shorters' could contribute some of their winnings to the rest of us who are likely to turn into big issue sellers thanks to those whose vote won them the dosh
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
Re all these car company warnings: remember last December there was a lot of concern that if the December agreement was not reached so that trade talks could start in March of this year, March would start the season of companies beginning to relocate/make plans to do so etc.
I think that what some thought would happen in March is now happening because there does not appear to have been any appreciable progress since December, the EU itself is beginning to plan for a no deal Brexit and time is running out. If there is no progress by the autumn panic could set in. Even if some sort of deal is reached, the image of Britain has I think been hurt by all this dithering.
Added to which there is now the uncertainty over Heathrow. Who cares about Boris. If there is a change of government, no third terminal. So much for McDonnell’s plans for investing in infrastructure.
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Hold on, doesn't this mean that Farage, the master populist, tribune of the ordinary chap, had misread the public mood on this, in the same way as all the other elite, metropolitan, public school educated journalists, commentators, analysts, pollsters, BBC presenters etc etc.?
Given how badly everyone else misread it, no wonder he had his doubts!
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I don't think that he would be the only one to resign in that scenario. At least if it was for more than a relatively brief period. I think the government would fall.
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
I suggest you read the Patten amendment. This game of daring Ireland to erect a customs border was always moronic, but now that the UK is committed in law not to use the Brexit legislation to do anything that would require one, the threat is entirely empty.
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May... I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
If only the EU would actually start negotiation on the future relationship. How many months have been wasted on discussing the no deal scenario? It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.
I still think the UK is playing a bigger part than generally acknowledged in hyperfocussing and stalling things on the Irish border, as a way to press the EU into greater SM and customs (union) access than would otherwise be available without formal participation in or contribution to either.
Whether such a thing is wise, I reserve judgement, but Ireland being a smallish player, it is a hand that the UK could very easily overplay.
I also think they were waiting to see if the EU agreed/progressed the Japanese FTA, as it looks to me at first reading a step up from CETA. To keep it topical the EU have agreed that cars getting type approval in Japan will not need to get it in EUland and visa versa. They have also as part of this agreed to international rules for the car specs as well. This is the crown jewels of the single market. National non EU member regulatory agency saying all you 28 member states must allow these cars on sale.
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
I suggest you read the Patten amendment. This game of daring Ireland to erect a customs border was always moronic, but now that the UK is committed in law not to use the Brexit legislation to do anything that would require one, the threat is entirely empty.
You agree there will be no hard border - so what is Soubry banging on about then ?
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
I suggest you read the Patten amendment. This game of daring Ireland to erect a customs border was always moronic, but now that the UK is committed in law not to use the Brexit legislation to do anything that would require one, the threat is entirely empty.
You agree there will be no hard border - so what is Soubry banging on about then ?
She's saying that the implication of there being no border is that the best option is to stay in the single market and a customs union/arrangement. "Suck it up!" as Soubry might say to you.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I don't think that he would be the only one to resign in that scenario. At least if it was for more than a relatively brief period. I think the government would fall.
I am on a 2018 GE. Nothing massive, just a few quid.
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
I suggest you read the Patten amendment. This game of daring Ireland to erect a customs border was always moronic, but now that the UK is committed in law not to use the Brexit legislation to do anything that would require one, the threat is entirely empty.
You agree there will be no hard border - so what is Soubry banging on about then ?
She's saying that the implication of there being no border is that the best option is to stay in the single market and a customs union/arrangement. "Suck it up!" as Soubry might say to you.
I'm sure she is saying that - but it's bunkum. There is no need for a hard border whether we are in the single market or not.
The Irish have some of the most heavily taxed booze and fags in the EU and these products pour south now with no sign of a hard border.
That the EU would ever build one is utter fantasy.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I don't think that he would be the only one to resign in that scenario. At least if it was for more than a relatively brief period. I think the government would fall.
I am on a 2018 GE. Nothing massive, just a few quid.
Turkeys and Christmas immediately came to mind but maybe we should leave Turkey out of this.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
It's a little hard to see why 1 and not the other. And of course the tidal barrage is much more desirable from an environmental point of view, even if a few ducks and waders have to find a new home. Looks like a mistake to me.
The strike price for the lagoon would have decreased to ~ £45 100 years from now. If they aren't upping that for inflation then it looks like exceptional value for money. Add in the decommissioning costs for Hinkley point (Which inevitably will fall on Gov't as the builders will have long gone bust since then and I'm trying to figure it all out). Perhaps the Gov't isn't interested in creating a Britain fit for the 2100s ?
Soubry repeating the daft line about a hard border in Ireland - when will the EU start breaking soil on this massive piece of infrastructure that they are going to construct - and will the ROI get any cash from Brussels to pay for it ?
I suggest you read the Patten amendment. This game of daring Ireland to erect a customs border was always moronic, but now that the UK is committed in law not to use the Brexit legislation to do anything that would require one, the threat is entirely empty.
You agree there will be no hard border - so what is Soubry banging on about then ?
She's saying that the implication of there being no border is that the best option is to stay in the single market and a customs union/arrangement. "Suck it up!" as Soubry might say to you.
I'm sure she is saying that - but it's bunkum. There is no need for a hard border whether we are in the single market or not.
The Irish have some of the most heavily taxed booze and fags in the EU and these products pour south now with no sign of a hard border.
That the EU would ever build one is utter fantasy.
They've already won this part of the negotiations. It's in UK law that Brexit cannot cause any change to the existing arrangements and we've committed to the backstop. You can stop posturing over it.
Wolfgang Munchau makes the point that the reality of US car tariffs could have a profound impact on the Brexit discussions. The UK is the largest export market for German car makers, followed by the US. If the US imposed tariffs, and if the Brexit talks were to collapse, the German auto industry would have to face crippling tariffs in three of its four largest export markets. The third one is China which is due to to slap car tariffs on US-made cars, many of them by German companies, in retaliation for the tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods. The EU clearly has no interest in a hard Brexit in this situation.
Presumably the friends of Leave.EU will be able to step in an fill the gap with Ladas.
Brexit 2016: "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal!"
Brexit 2018: "Nobody in the UK will buy a BMW again"
Hard to believe these fukwits are in charge right now...
It's sort of crept up on me. I now find a Conservative minister saying "F*** Business" to be almost normal. Huge disruption to trade being shrugged off as unimportant or blamed on the EU is commonplace. The total lack of any actual preparation for what is coming is the only thing that still shocks me personally. That at least I thought we were good at.
The strike price for the lagoon would have decreased to ~ £45 100 years from now. If they aren't upping that for inflation then it looks like exceptional value for money. Add in the decommissioning costs for Hinkley point (Which inevitably will fall on Gov't as the builders will have long gone bust since then and I'm trying to figure it all out). Perhaps the Gov't isn't interested in creating a Britain fit for the 2100s ?
It is the most incredibly short-sighted refusal. And will become a real political problem for the Tories in Wales. Just the Swansea and Cardiff lagoons alone would have meant every household in Wales powered by uber-green tidal power. A world first. And now Labour will pledge to go ahead with it.
The PM has been spectacularly badly advised on this.
Wolfgang Munchau makes the point that the reality of US car tariffs could have a profound impact on the Brexit discussions. The UK is the largest export market for German car makers, followed by the US. If the US imposed tariffs, and if the Brexit talks were to collapse, the German auto industry would have to face crippling tariffs in three of its four largest export markets. The third one is China which is due to to slap car tariffs on US-made cars, many of them by German companies, in retaliation for the tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods. The EU clearly has no interest in a hard Brexit in this situation.
I'm not an enormous fan of Herr Munchau normally, but I think in this case he's absolutely right. Essentially Donald Trump is forcing us and the EU to make nice. Which is not his intention, but that's another story.
The strike price for the lagoon would have decreased to ~ £45 100 years from now. If they aren't upping that for inflation then it looks like exceptional value for money. Add in the decommissioning costs for Hinkley point (Which inevitably will fall on Gov't as the builders will have long gone bust since then and I'm trying to figure it all out). Perhaps the Gov't isn't interested in creating a Britain fit for the 2100s ?
It is the most incredibly short-sighted refusal. And will become a real political problem for the Tories in Wales. Just the Swansea and Cardiff lagoons alone would have meant every household in Wales powered by uber-green tidal power. A world first. And now Labour will pledge to go ahead with it.
The PM has been spectacularly badly advised on this.
On the day the government (probably) wins the vote for the third runway at LHR.....
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Wolfgang Munchau makes the point that the reality of US car tariffs could have a profound impact on the Brexit discussions. The UK is the largest export market for German car makers, followed by the US. If the US imposed tariffs, and if the Brexit talks were to collapse, the German auto industry would have to face crippling tariffs in three of its four largest export markets. The third one is China which is due to to slap car tariffs on US-made cars, many of them by German companies, in retaliation for the tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods. The EU clearly has no interest in a hard Brexit in this situation.
I'm not an enormous fan of Herr Munchau normally, but I think in this case he's absolutely right. Essentially Donald Trump is forcing us and the EU to make nice. Which is not his intention, but that's another story.
The sad thing is that Brexiteers still imagine "make nice" means "give the UK a cakeist deal" when it actually means that the UK simply has even less leverage than it had before.
The strike price for the lagoon would have decreased to ~ £45 100 years from now. If they aren't upping that for inflation then it looks like exceptional value for money. Add in the decommissioning costs for Hinkley point (Which inevitably will fall on Gov't as the builders will have long gone bust since then and I'm trying to figure it all out). Perhaps the Gov't isn't interested in creating a Britain fit for the 2100s ?
It is the most incredibly short-sighted refusal. And will become a real political problem for the Tories in Wales. Just the Swansea and Cardiff lagoons alone would have meant every household in Wales powered by uber-green tidal power. A world first. And now Labour will pledge to go ahead with it.
The PM has been spectacularly badly advised on this.
Point is a hundred years from now a tidal lagoon is just going to keep going - nothing is more regular than the tides. And Hinkley point will need decommissioning at some point, that doesn't come cheap !
Presumably the friends of Leave.EU will be able to step in an fill the gap with Ladas.
Brexit 2016: "BMW will force Angela Merkel to give us a great deal!"
Brexit 2018: "Nobody in the UK will buy a BMW again"
Hard to believe these fukwits are in charge right now...
It's sort of crept up on me. I now find a Conservative minister saying "F*** Business" to be almost normal. Huge disruption to trade being shrugged off as unimportant or blamed on the EU is commonplace. The total lack of any actual preparation for what is coming is the only thing that still shocks me personally. That at least I thought we were good at.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Just imagine if May manages to find a way to eviscerate Boris and avert Brexit in a way that prevents the Tory party splitting. She'd instantly become a revered stateswoman and one of the strongest figures in European politics.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Just imagine if May manages to find a way to eviscerate Boris and avert Brexit in a way that prevents the Tory party splitting. She'd instantly become a revered stateswoman and one of the strongest figures in European politics.
I don't think it is humanly possible to do all three of those things. I think at the moment she would settle for preventing the party from splitting and, if possible eviscerating Boris.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
Seems a bonkers decision. But not the first from tories over the past few years have. Can we have a new sensible centrist / centre right / pro business party please....
No worries. It will be in the Labour manifesto, - paid for many times over by the cancellation of the Heathrow 3rd runway and the associated road costs.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Just imagine if May manages to find a way to eviscerate Boris and avert Brexit in a way that prevents the Tory party splitting. She'd instantly become a revered stateswoman and one of the strongest figures in European politics.
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Just imagine if May manages to find a way to eviscerate Boris and avert Brexit in a way that prevents the Tory party splitting. She'd instantly become a revered stateswoman and one of the strongest figures in European politics.
Suggestions anyone?
She could do all three in one go if she could force him into delivering a speech saying we should abandon Brexit.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
Aren't the twitcher brigade against the lagoon projects?
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
Seems a bonkers decision. But not the first from tories over the past few years have. Can we have a new sensible centrist / centre right / pro business party please....
The sooner the better. The lagoon decision has greatly annoyed me
And how do they reconcile this with PM May, exactly?
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
This is nothing. What's he going to do if May gets rest of Cabinet to agree to try and negotiate a single market deal?
I think May is saving up a big reckoning for Boris. She's steely and I suspect a bit vindictive. It won't be a simple resignation. It will be some kind of humiliation. Today is a sampler.
Well we know she is vindictive from how she treated Osborne - whether or not one thinks he deserved such such treatment, the leaking about how she game him what for and all that and showed him out the back did not seem like a sensible move.
Just imagine if May manages to find a way to eviscerate Boris and avert Brexit in a way that prevents the Tory party splitting. She'd instantly become a revered stateswoman and one of the strongest figures in European politics.
Suggestions anyone?
She could do all three in one go if she could force him into delivering a speech saying we should abandon Brexit.
Hehe - nice thought. But I think she'd need a bigger hold on Johnson than Putin's got on Trump to make that happen.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
Aren't the twitcher brigade against the lagoon projects?
Nah - we love looking for a rare wader a mile away through heat-haze!
I do know a vast amount of work has been done on the environmental aspects.
I cannot believe that the price per unit of electricity will come close to the Hinkley C strike price. But maybe one extravagance is enough.
The developers had previously asked for a 90-year contract with the UK government with an average strike price - a guaranteed price for the electricity generated - of £89.90 per megawatt hour. The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
That was for Swansea. Add in Cardiff and you are looking at a 20-25% discount on those numbers. But I'm told the Government/Civil Servants squashed that proposal for a two-fer....
Seems a bonkers decision. But not the first from tories over the past few years have. Can we have a new sensible centrist / centre right / pro business party please....
The sooner the better. The lagoon decision has greatly annoyed me
Why? Are you claiming the government is wrong to say that it represents poor value for money? If so, on what basis?
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/25/foreign-businesses-tell-uk-solve-brexit-issue-or-risk-100bn-in-trade
Hunt will perhaps struggle to instruct foreign companies to "get behind" May...
I look forward to Charles telling us this is 'inappropriate'.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1011269302887112704
Though as always with Ms Oakeshott, one has to wonder whether she's sitting on a few hundred emails that might shed an entirely different light on the affair.
Oops!
It was Boris who turned the Referendum result, by emboldening those Tories who had profound doubts but would ordinarily have been minded to support the PM.
Boris was ten times more important in marshalling the cohort of voters who actually delivered Brexit. Ably assisted by Cameron and Osborne, who made Boris's job so much easier.
But there was no secret exit poll. There was some work done to be able to interpret the early results accurately, and consequently make a lot of money.
It would be a lot easier if Farage could simply be caught out as a wrong 'un. But taking this story at face value would be to indulge in a comfort blanket to avoid reality.
Lest I face the risk of having too many of my sparring partners on here agreeing with me, let me just put this link here.
Fixed that for him.
Our car manufacturing experts will be along shortly to explain why BMW's customs manager doesn't understand their supply chain...
Whether such a thing is wise, I reserve judgement, but Ireland being a smallish player, it is a hand that the UK could very easily overplay.
You Brit-anthropes need a smarter approach than doing down the country.
Sir Jeremy, the Cabinet Secretary and head of the Civil Service, is being treated for an infection arising from his cancer.
It is interesting that May made it a whipped vote. Greg Hands was on R5 this afternoon indicating that this was a very late decision which, had it not been taken, would have meant he would not have been obliged to resign. Its almost as if May was keen to cause Boris a problem isn't it?
I think that what some thought would happen in March is now happening because there does not appear to have been any appreciable progress since December, the EU itself is beginning to plan for a no deal Brexit and time is running out. If there is no progress by the autumn panic could set in. Even if some sort of deal is reached, the image of Britain has I think been hurt by all this dithering.
Added to which there is now the uncertainty over Heathrow. Who cares about Boris. If there is a change of government, no third terminal. So much for McDonnell’s plans for investing in infrastructure.
Instead of importing parts and assembling them here, we will import complete vehicles.
Awesome...
Oh, wait...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1011234788265615361
The Irish have some of the most heavily taxed booze and fags in the EU and these products pour south now with no sign of a hard border.
That the EU would ever build one is utter fantasy.
The new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point C in Somerset was given a strike price of £92.50/MWh for 35 years.
Brexit 2018: "Nobody in the UK will buy a BMW again"
Hard to believe these fukwits are in charge right now...
https://twitter.com/thorstenbenner/status/1011158706426466306?s=20
Perhaps the Gov't isn't interested in creating a Britain fit for the 2100s ?
https://www.macrumors.com/2018/06/25/apple-news-midterm-elections-2018-section/
http://www.eurointelligence.com/public/
The PM has been spectacularly badly advised on this.
http://www.euronews.com/2018/06/25/ship-carrying-over-100-rescued-migrants-refused-right-to-dock-in-italy
Now you can argue that being a Danish Flag ship, it's only fair that the migrants need to go to Denmark except for the fact the Italian coastguard asked for them to be rescued. So it's a bit rich that the Italian's aren't allowing the ship to dock...
And Hinkley point will need decommissioning at some point, that doesn't come cheap !
Im getting a Mercedes or VW instead!!!
Boris can be laid at 15 at the moment.
I do know a vast amount of work has been done on the environmental aspects.